So North Korea/ China fires another missile over Japan, and judging by what I'm seeing in the pre-market (very little movement), looks like it wants to shrug it off on this Friday OPEX.
I find Options Expiration Friday's particularly difficult to predict, because Options markets are the most rigged of all. For that reason, any times you'll see markets pinned on OPEX. They just want to get paid on their options after driving stocks in a certain direction each month. Every so often you'll see the rug pulled on on OPEX, and nobody likes paying for insurance (in the form of put options), on expiration day. I can only remember 1 day in recent memory, that we saw a "bloody OPEX", but it happens.
Happily, I haven't had to watch the market trade basically flat all week; I've been busy with several out door projects... the weather in Chicago has been gorgeous, and I didn't miss watching a flat market all week. Today I'm at a good stopping point, and it's supposed to get hot, so I'll be watching markets a little more closely.
I've already put some extra time in, charting this morning, and markets look worse than ever.
Oil - Possible crash to new recent lows "in a hurry, with a fury...". Possible wave 3 of C - a very, very, powerful wave. If the chart is correct; should look like a crash.
There are a couple things that could take the market down. Oil and energy is one of them. BitCoin is the other. There's a lot of money invested in BitCoin, and I suspect several large hedge funds, and when it unwinds, the baby will have to be thrown out with the bathwater. I suspect the bankers have found a way to short bitcoin, and they're the ones behind the pump, and dump. Crytpo-currencies are a direct threat to The Fed and our fiat currency.
The Dow - After updating the chart, it looks like a major topping formation, and unless $TRAN can lead, fund managers aren't buying into this fake rally.
$INDU - possible extended wave 5 in a megaphone top.
$TRAN
This could be the end of the line for the bull market of the past 8 years, or at least the beginning of the end. I wouldn't be talking any chances here, in fact I would be NET short.
If the market looks like it's going to hold up into OPEX, I'll be away from my desk again, but I'll be glued to the news, and close-by.
Have a great weekend.
AA
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