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Wednesday, January 1, 2025

Happy New Year 2025 What to Expect Next

 Happy New Year 2025

 I thought it would be good to do a follow-up from yesterday's market wrap-up for 2024. If you missed it, be sure to check it out, or you probably won't get as much out of this one.

Hope everybody had a terrific Happy New Year's Eve celebration.

To be honest I kinda had a bad feeling that there may have been another assassination attempt on Trump's life, but  now I see this bad news circulating.     


 We spent a quiet night at home, because to be honest there just isn't much to celebrate about anymore, and it's no longer safe on the city streets. Pretty sad state of affairs! 


Picking up where I left off

CNBC 'Fast Money' traders look back at the market's historic year

 

  Yes, markets made new highs, but there's nothing historic about it.     

 Comparing the Bull Market in Tech stocks in 2000, to today's market:

 


Does that look "historic" to you?

Getting right back into the meat of it with sector rotations, being used to lift markets higher. 

Whac-a-mole markets

...continued into Tuesday's close with Energy, and Pot stocks leading the way, while tech stocks continued to be hammered.

 I was lucky enough to be on the right side of the Marijuana trade, after calling it out last week.

 New Years Eve 

 The Energy trade is a CNBC Fast Money trade, and although it continues to work I don't like the lower trend line on the chart.

 $XLE Energy - Lower trend line could be a bull trap. Also Note the annotation at the recent top, where we saw a sector rotation into Mag7 stocks $AAPL and such.  

 

CNBC was also seen pushing Natural Gas on New Year's Eve. For a moment I thought I was watching the weather channel, as some shady looking character I've never seen on the show before, was waving his hands about a cold front helping the natural gas trade. 

 

We did see a short squeeze in Natural Gas last week, and that may continue, if the fast money is going to rush back in. The smart money is predicting the weather 2 weeks out, so this just seems to me that retail investors are being set up for a Bull trap.


Natural Gas Chart

I also see the trolls on social media pushing Natural Gas Hysteria

  It looks like the hedge funds are  planning to drive Natural Gas higher as soon as tonight, in futures trading, but I would prefer to sell the $5 target than chase it up here.

Semiconductors  

Semis have been pulling back for 5 months, so I like those, but earnings season kicks off with financials. 

I also like beaten down Health Care Stocks. 

I also think Crypto needs to rebound after the Christmas Crash, and while Wall Street is waiting for earnings season to kick off, what better way to kick off the New Year?  


AA

   



 

 

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