Page menu

Thursday, May 29, 2025

#OMG Moment for Markets as Court Rules Against Trump Tariffs

Market Update 

NVIDIA $NVDA beat earnings, but that's not what's moving markets this morning  

Court Rules Against Trump Tariffs

As it turns out the courts are trying to overturn the will of the people, and this isn't the first time... and at this point I think it's safe to call the situation, "a full-blown constitutional crisis". 

'On a mission from God'- After court blocks 'Liberation Day' tariffs, Donald Trump hits back with memes - moneycontrol.com   

 Of course Trump and his lawyers are going to fight back with more than memes, and I'm sure Trump will shut down the ports, if it comes to that. Wall Street may want to take that news sitting down!  

Reviewing the recent market action 

What started out as an ordinary spring shakeout, followed by a massive short squeeze, heading into Memorial Day, has turned into a rather extraordinary market rally, the likes of which the world has not seen since Oct, 2022. 

 $NYSE - Velocity and duration matches the Oct, 2022 rally


Is $SPX 6000 an unexpected bullish breakout? No. I expected this, in fact the target lined up perfectly...

 But what's really behind this rally?

My first thought was that Wall Street, and (insider trading) Congressional leaders, knew this court ruling was in the works, and have been pricing it in from the start, although that can't be confirmed. 

According to duckduckgo (AI) assist: 

"The court challenges to Trump's tariffs were based on cases filed by the Liberty Justice Center and a coalition of U.S. state governments, but specific filing dates are not provided in the available information. The ruling blocking the tariffs was made on May 29, 2025"

Is this news bullish?    

Judging by this morning's $VIX action, it's not bullish at all. 

Initially the $VIX dropped nearly to the 18 level, but all morning I've been watching it climb back, as the pre-market rally faded.

 Edit after the opening bell: Only seeing the Nasdaq up .8%

I have higher targets IF the market makers want to drive the $SPX to new all time highs, but it seems like the smart money is already selling every rip.   

 I saw some clown on Bloomberg claiming that investors had missed the entire rally, and that was why there is a "lack of sellers", while ignoring the fact that the sellers are on vacation. 

Watch Julian Emanuel Says It's Time to Buy Equities - Bloomberg
MSM clown show

 

Never trust the lame stream media, to tell you the truth 

 Take carem AA

 

Posted by at No comments:

Tuesday, May 27, 2025

Yet another bear trap

 We're seeing another little short squeeze on this 1st Tuesday after the long Memorial Day weekend. 

Here's a good view of the sellers of the $QQQ, being taken out behind the woodshed: 

$SQQQ 2X $QQQ bear ETF



I'm not going to go so far as to say to "never" sell a dull market", but you gotta figure nobody wants to get short going into a long weekend (Memorial Day). 

Friday's sell-off

Looking back at my immediate take on Friday's pullback: Volatility was sold at the open.  

Combine that with the fact that the $SPX pulled back to the 200 day moving average on Friday, and it was pretty obvious the market was set to charge out of the gate this week. 


  

I figured traders would rush in and buy the dip again, but with NVIDIA earnings right around the corner, there's no telling what's going to happen next, and I've already moved out of tech. 

After the rally of the past several weeks, most everything looks toppy to me, except Energy. I think we may see a sector rotation... as I tweeted on Friday. 

  

I don't rely on Elliott Wave theory too much anymore, although it does appear that the $SPX has completed a simple 5 wave impulse. 

 $SPX 1-2-3-4-5


If we do get a pullback, that's probably going to set up for another short squeeze in early July.  

GL, AA  


Posted by at No comments:

Tuesday, May 20, 2025

Market Manipulation Continues into Memorial Day $SPX, Crypto, Healthcare

 We continue to see the market jacked up as we trade into the Memorial Day holiday.

It was the funniest thing to see the market panic bought at yesterday's open on a US debt downgrade, but this is what the manipulators do....  

They like to trap the retail short sellers, and then squeeze them on light holiday volume. 

$SPX -Declining Volume 

 

6 day winning streak 5/20/2025

You could hypothesize that this is the smart money off loading their positions to retail investors.

There is a bright spot in the market, and that is in the Healthcare sector, and the 3X healthcare bull $CURE is already 10% higher after last week's shakeout. 

 


Short Term Outlook $SPX 6200 

This is typically what the controllers like to do; drive it back to new all time highs, on some, "historic winning streak" (fake news), before crashing it again. 

 I have accurate targets, but I don't hand those out like free candy on Halloween night. 

 People no longer want to pay for alerts. They'd rather chase Crypto gains, and meme stocks.


 



 

Posted by at No comments:

Wednesday, May 7, 2025

Stocks Hit New All Time Highs, Netflix $NFLX, Berkshire, Bitcoin, Gold, FOMC, and more


Stocks hit all time highs: 

We're seeing ROW (rest of world) ex-US hitting all time highs. You'd think Bloomberg would be bragging about that historic comeback, but maybe they're too busy reporting 9 day winning steaks...? 

$VEU Vanguard FTSE All-World ex-US ETF  - hitting all time highs 

 

EURO STOXX 50 ETF - hitting all time new highs

 

Japan

 $EWJ (MSCI Japan ETF) - testing the top of a range.


You know who is heavily invested in Japan, right? Buffett 


$BRK/A - Berkshire Hathaway - New all time highs followed by a nearly -5% decline on Monday's (sell the news) event, and I think nobody has more to lose in the next stock market crash than Warren Buffet. 

 



You know what else sold off on Monday? 

Netflix $NFLX 

 Gold & Gold miners

Gold miners finally make their run as predicted weeks ago, but what took so long...?  

The chance of nuclear war between India and Pakistan was clearly the catalyst that Gold needed, for a powerful snap-back rally 

Then came the reversal: 

 

Gold prices fall in India amid global trends and geopolitical tensions

Bitcoin 

No sooner than Gold reversed, we saw a sector rotation back into Bitcoin. I believe that in part, this was due to the fact that Bitcoin priced in Euro's had decoupled from the Bitcoin priced in $USD trade, as speculators continues to rotate from one sector into another, and I think this will continue until we see a deflationary spiral take every market lower.

 What Next? 

What next is the FOMC statement, and Chairman Powell's speech 

 Regardless of what the Fed statement says, there is a 90% certainty that markets will rally on the news. 

 

From Saturday's update: 

I suspect the next Fed meeting could provide a near term capitulation point for global markets.   


GL, AA


 



Posted by at No comments:

Saturday, May 3, 2025

Extensive Saturday Market Update $SPX DCS Charts Still Bullish?

Wrapping up week 2 of our post-Easter rally:  

I find it amazing that the same people who helped trash the market during a 4 day market crash in April, by stoking fear over Trump's tariffs, are now seen egging on a "historic winning streak". So disingenuous!

 CNBC  - trying to sell Pro subscriptions to newbie investors



Technically the market may have been up 10 days in a row, but Monday, Tuesday, and Wed., we saw little to no gains.

Wednesday was exciting, as the market dipped at the open - on a negative GDP print.

Here's the Dow rallying off the 20 day moving average. 

 


$SPX Daily Candlestick Chart - See the moving average targets on this chart. As of Friday's close we're getting close to the 200 day moving average, and the NYSE is already there! 

Very orderly buying as I predicted 2 weeks ago

Comparing this rally to the October 2022 rally 

Similar looking shakeout, followed by a similar rebound. The trajectory is basically straight up. Although still nothing "historic". If the $NYSE can rally another 700 points this rally will match the 20% gains we saw back in Oct 2022.      

 



Europe  

European Stocks have seen a historic, meteoric rise! 

The folks at Bloomberg are actually rooting for European markets, and the hedge funds behind the scenes.

Hedge Funds

 

Gains in leveraged ETF's also compound, if you can manage to stick with the winning side of the trade.

 What Next? 

It's going to be interesting to see if markets are going to crash into the next Federal reserve announcement, and May Options Expiration, or will we see a long period of consolidation, once the top is confirmed?

Tops in a bear market tend to reverse violently, while interim tops - between waves A and B - for instance - can consolidate for a long period of time. 

Scenario #1 

Now that the bears are trapped I would expect them to remain trapped, going into the Summer, as talk of a China deal persists. We'll call this the, "buy the rumor", trade. 

We're also seeing the market rally on bad news, and a fear of missing out, although you always see this sentiment in a bear market rally, and especially in wave 2.

Read more »
Posted by at No comments:
Subscribe to: Posts (Atom)