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Wednesday, September 17, 2025

FOMC Day: Bitcoin’s Ride & Crypto’s Stall

 In yesterday's blog I dished out a heapin' helpin' of BIG TECH, $GDX Gold Miners, and even Crypto, so feel free to help yourself to seconds, if you haven't done so already! We covered a lot... 

Important Update on Ethereum, $GDX Gold Miners, and Google/ Alphabet

An addendum to yesterday's blog      

One thing that slipped my mind in yesterday's update is that Bitcoin continues to flirt with the 50 day moving average, and as I watched yesterday's action, it seemed like program buying was being triggered above the 50 sma. 

I didn't have much luck finding any relevant news that may have triggered a rally in Crypto, but I did notice the $USD getting hammered. If you may have any better luck finding a catalyst, than I did, then by all means, let me know! 

I also suggest you watch the $USD as Crypto tends to dance in the opposite direction... 

 A glimpse at Yesterdays wild ride       

 $BTC/ $EUR -  the chart shows Bitcoin $BTC/ $EUR whipsawing albeit in a tight range.
 
I would expect crypt markets to continue their wild ride, on today's FOMC statement, as most traders are planning to fade it.

 


 I don't have time to do a deep dive into the metals charts, and this is what happens when you try to cover 5 different things at once.  

 FOMC 

 
What to expect: 
 
 It's hard to see a negative reaction to an interest rate cut, so I'm still expecting a relief rally; IF the Fed gives the market what it wants. However, if the Fed reneges on its promise... then all bets may be off in a tapper tantrum!  
 
Crashes on a fed announcement are rare, but not unheard of. Occasionally you see a delayed reaction, so I'd keep my guard up, depending on what we see this afternoon. 
 
Does the market really need a rate cut to go higher, when it didn't need any help from the Fed to rally 25% off the April lows? I'll let you decide.      
 

Getting back to Crypto 

The $IBIT chart is something you should already be charting on your own, if you are serious about trading crypto.    

Here's a little secret: If you're going to trade the $SPX, you chart the $SPY. And if you trade Crypto, you chart Bitcoin ($IBIT), because Bitcoin is the leader.  

We saw Ethereum out-perform Bitcoin, over the summer, and we may see more moves in and out of alt-coin (s), but we have yet to see a total divergence. 

Alt coiners may be searching for new leadership, but it may just be that buyers fatigue is setting in, after what can only be described as a "long summer rally".

Take care,  

AA  

 

 

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