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Wednesday, May 7, 2025

Stocks Hit New All Time Highs, Netflix $NFLX, Berkshire, Bitcoin, Gold, FOMC, and more


Stocks hit all time highs: 

We're seeing ROW (rest of world) ex-US hitting all time highs. You'd think Bloomberg would be bragging about that historic comeback, but maybe they're too busy reporting 9 day winning steaks...? 

$VEU Vanguard FTSE All-World ex-US ETF  - hitting all time highs 

 

EURO STOXX 50 ETF - hitting all time new highs

 

Japan

 $EWJ (MSCI Japan ETF) - testing the top of a range.


You know who is heavily invested in Japan, right? Buffett 


$BRK/A - Berkshire Hathaway - New all time highs followed by a nearly -5% decline on Monday's (sell the news) event, and I think nobody has more to lose in the next stock market crash than Warren Buffet. 

 



You know what else sold off on Monday? 

Netflix $NFLX 

 Gold & Gold miners

Gold miners finally make their run as predicted weeks ago, but what took so long...?  

The chance of nuclear war between India and Pakistan was clearly the catalyst that Gold needed, for a powerful snap-back rally 

Then came the reversal: 

 

Gold prices fall in India amid global trends and geopolitical tensions

Bitcoin 

No sooner than Gold reversed, we saw a sector rotation back into Bitcoin. I believe that in part, this was due to the fact that Bitcoin priced in Euro's had decoupled from the Bitcoin priced in $USD trade, as speculators continues to rotate from one sector into another, and I think this will continue until we see a deflationary spiral take every market lower.

 What Next? 

What next is the FOMC statement, and Chairman Powell's speech 

 Regardless of what the Fed statement says, there is a 90% certainty that markets will rally on the news. 

 

From Saturday's update: 

I suspect the next Fed meeting could provide a near term capitulation point for global markets.   


GL, AA


 



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Saturday, May 3, 2025

Extensive Saturday Market Update $SPX DCS Charts Still Bullish?

Wrapping up week 2 of our post-Easter rally:  

I find it amazing that the same people who helped trash the market during a 4 day market crash in April, by stoking fear over Trump's tariffs, are now seen egging on a "historic winning streak". So disingenuous!

 CNBC  - trying to sell Pro subscriptions to newbie investors



Technically the market may have been up 10 days in a row, but Monday, Tuesday, and Wed., we saw little to no gains.

Wednesday was exciting, as the market dipped at the open - on a negative GDP print.

Here's the Dow rallying off the 20 day moving average. 

 


$SPX Daily Candlestick Chart - See the moving average targets on this chart. As of Friday's close we're getting close to the 200 day moving average, and the NYSE is already there! 

Very orderly buying as I predicted 2 weeks ago

Comparing this rally to the October 2022 rally 

Similar looking shakeout, followed by a similar rebound. The trajectory is basically straight up. Although still nothing "historic". If the $NYSE can rally another 700 points this rally will match the 20% gains we saw back in Oct 2022.      

 



Europe  

European Stocks have seen a historic, meteoric rise! 

The folks at Bloomberg are actually rooting for European markets, and the hedge funds behind the scenes.

Hedge Funds

 

Gains in leveraged ETF's also compound, if you can manage to stick with the winning side of the trade.

 What Next? 

It's going to be interesting to see if markets are going to crash into the next Federal reserve announcement, and May Options Expiration, or will we see a long period of consolidation, once the top is confirmed?

Tops in a bear market tend to reverse violently, while interim tops - between waves A and B - for instance - can consolidate for a long period of time. 

Scenario #1 

Now that the bears are trapped I would expect them to remain trapped, going into the Summer, as talk of a China deal persists. We'll call this the, "buy the rumor", trade. 

We're also seeing the market rally on bad news, and a fear of missing out, although you always see this sentiment in a bear market rally, and especially in wave 2.

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