Page menu

Pioneering Market Insights: My 15 yr. Journey

Join me for a glimpse into my 15-years of navigating volatile markets with skill, a healthy dose of skepticism, and a knack for spotting what others miss. 

Separating the Old from the New  

I'm a second generation market timer, first introduced to financial markets by my Father who worked as a stock broker, in Chicago, during the 1970's. His paper charts were rolled like treasure maps, and tucked beneath the couch for safe keeping. Bloomberg was broadcast on one of Chicago's (only 3) uhf channels, and I can still remember him waiting in anticipation for IBM to tick across the bottom of the screen. 

In contrast: Today I have 1000's of chart views, across +30 active folders, backed up to the cloud, and a 24/7 news cycle, covering 4 continents. A far cry from Dads' analog days. As I often say, "this isn't your father's market".  

Cutting Through the Noise

I've followed markets closely my entire life, but I didn't start actively trading until around 2007-2008. It was around that time I stumbled across yahoo financial boards, Elliott Wave theory, and digital charting software, and that gave me a good foundation for pattern identification, and using the $VIX as a fear gauge, and as the selling accelerated into the Fall of 2008, I received a free crash course in navigating volatile markets, and I was hooked!   

When I called the bottom of the market in 2008, I attracted a small (12 people maybe?) following on yahoo boards, but it wasn't until 2010 - after I called the now infamous Flash Crash that I drew a lot of attention (over 100), and that wasn't even part of the plan. It just happened. I started this blog, so I could have more room to write. Followers suggested that I should add a PayPal button, and later I even built a membership site, but in hindsight it's always the market crashes that draw the most attention, and that's because fear is a powerful emotion.      
 
Trading the worst market crash in a generation, I learned early-on that markets thrive on noise, and that noise is based in fear; whether it's FOMO (fear of missing out - greed) or fear of losing your entire investment. I used to blog quite a bit on emotion, and how it moves markets - back in the early days - but then I would turn around and blog on whatever emotionally charged angle of the day, was being broadcast on CNBC. Heck, I still do this today, yet I usually do it in order to cut through the noise, when a better solution might be to turn the TV off.     

Since the early days, I've learned to look past the chatter on TV and social media, where memes and “fintwit”, and read between the lines. Hpe often drown out reality, and my edge lies in reading markets with clarity, not following the crowd. 

Pioneering Volatility and Innovation

Recent innovation has led to the opening up of markets to anyone with a WiFi connection, and unlimited free trades has increased trading volume exponentially. It has also helped to level the playing field, giving traders easy access to investment sentiment indicators, and even free stock filters. You can even trade Cryptocurrency 24/7, although I would strongly recommend against it.    
 
Today's markets are fueled by algorithmic trading programs, meme stocks (another word for organized short squeezes), 0DTE options, and an ever-growing list of leveraged ETFs - many of which are routinely used to add additional leveraged to the handful of overweight stocks which drive the major averages  — They call that "bifurcation"; I call it whac-a-mole.  
 
Today's market is unlike anything we've ever seen before, and a relentless virtuous circle of sector rotations, in a market environment where every crash is met with FOMO driven rallies that seems to defy traditional corrections. The most recent manifestation of this can be found in the Tech lower; energy higher trade. Of course there are moments where the proverbial baby is thrown out with the bathwater, but that's a rare occurrence. 
 
Nevertheless, navigating today’s highly volatile markets demands sharper risk management, and this puts the retail investor at a greater disadvantage, and lately I find myself looking at the best ways to hedge risk.

The $VIX Has Changed 

Getting back to the $VIX. I've been studying the $VIX for many years, and I even wrote, a study guide on how to trade (according to) the $VIX, appropriately entitled "Trading The $VIX" , and I can confirm the $VIX has changed, and I have the charts to prove it. I should probably remove the link to my guide, since it's no longer relevant, but perhaps I should revise it to serve as a warning.   
 
If you have followed me for any length of time, then you've heard me refer to the market as "rigged, and the manipulation of the $VIX is at the heart of everything thing that's wrong with today's market, as it has gone from being a simple tool, used to predict (future) volatility in Options markets, to a device that's used to help set bear traps, and even cause market crashes. In fact $VIX 60 has recently become a regular occurrence, and the massive short interest in the $VIX is part of it. 
 
$VXN (Nasdaq 100) weekly candles show long tails, suggesting repeated suppression, possibly tied to the AI rally pivot, which started in 2022. It appears that volatility was being sold with wild abandon, up until the time Trump took office. Weather or not that points to some kind of conspiracy, or not, I'll let you decide, but I think even AI would have to agree that the timing raises suspicious.  
 

A Tale of Volmageddon 

Long before “Volageddon” became a buzzword, I was pointing to the massive short squeezes in the $VIX, to help explain an ever increasing number of the sudden unwinds we've seen over the past several years.

You can find me discussing this phenomenon in my 2018 interview with Dale Pinkert at FX Street, and rehashed in this more recent 2023 blog 

A Tale of Volmageddon

Revisiting Volmageddon 1.0 - Preparing for Vomageddon 2.0

 

You can also view my interview with FX Street, during which I point to the broadening top pattern, that  correctly predicted the Covid crash, as well as the bottom on that crash.

FACE Interview April 6th 2020 $SPX Anthony showed major turning points at OPEX

 If you question that what I'm showing in that interview was pre-covid, I have the tweets to document the fact that I noticed the German $DAX  trade into a classic broadening top pattern, completing on the final Options Expiration just before that fateful Monday morning surprise. 
I had no idea what the catalyst for the crash would be, until the week or 2, before it took place, but I knew something big was coming, and believe me I started hoarding toilet paper; way before it became a national sport! 
 

Here I am beating the bear drum 1 week before the Covid crash, and (correctly) predicting which countries would need to be bailed out.  

 
 
Of course, I have no way to prove that I called the ($SPX 666) bottom in '08, or the Flashcrash, but my record speaks for itself. 

The Liberation Day Tariff Tantrum 

I expected that the rug would be pulled no sooner than Trump took office, so I was well positioned for it.   

Best & Worst Trades of The Week MAGA TrumpTrade Crypto & the DeepSeek Dip

 
January 17th, 2025  Here I am predicting the crash in $USO/ energy
Friday April 18th, 2025 I got very bullish while most pro traders were telling the retail investor to hunker down, and sit on the sideline.  

Market Pulls Back ahead of Good Friday as European Bank Stocks Soar. What's Next?

 
To quote myself :  "Stocks actually look great here". 
 
Soon after, I was lucky enough to catch the 2nd biggest 1 day percentage increase in NASDAQ history.   

Trump Capitulates as the Bond Market Threatens to Collapse

 

Maneuvering Through the Ever Changing Market Landscape 

Here we are in 2025 trading the most exciting bull market in a generation, and as technology evolves, my technique continues to evolve with it. Lately I find myself turning to AI to confirm what I'm seeing in the charts, for instance the massive volume we've seen since 2008. 

 

Using Grok AI to Help Analyze Technical Charts (Tech Sector volume analysis/ analytics)

That was only 3 months ago, and I'm finding that I had only begun to scratch the surface... and this coming from someone who only a few months ago didn't think he had much use for AI. 

You're Welcome to Join me on My Journey 

I encourage you to thumb through recent blogs, and follow me on X (@3Xtraders). The best time to catch me is early in the morning, when you'll find me tracking what's going on overseas, while tweeting market updates over coffee, but be forewarned, I block any and all distractions, and I use twitter more as a sounding board, and a place to blog on political topics, more than anything else.            

Take Care and good luck,

AA

No comments:

Post a Comment

Subscribe to: Posts (Atom)