Dead Sectors, Empty Wallets, Merry Christmas

  

Last night President Trump took the stage and told the crowd, "your 401ks are “zooming,” “flying high,” “like the world has never seen before" (classic Trump bluster). Immediately after Fox News hooked up the reindeer and hopped on Santa's sleigh. Yeah, I admit, I watched some of it. 

‘2026 is going to be huge’: Charles Payne thinks the economy’s future is bright

Fox Business Perma-bull Charles Payne rides Trump's coat-tails to try to sell more books    

 I like Jesse Waters; met him once at a republican national convention to "Stop The Steal!", to make sure Trump got the nomination. Jesse seemed intimidated by my presence, but I'm twice his size...he's smart to be afraid of strangers! 🤣     

Time debunk Fox's sugar plumb fairy tales in less than 3 min., with the help of Grok/AI 

 

The S&P 500 equal-weight index ($RSP) → flat to slightly red

The average 2030–2040 target-date fund most Americans own → barely positive, negative in real terms

Your typical balanced 401k that isn’t 100% QQQ → somewhere between treading water and slowly drowning

Is Grok Telling the Truth? (Spoiler: Yes...)

$SPXEW 

Enter $SPXEW (S&P Equal-Weight Index)—the unvarnished truth behind the headlines. Flat as a pancake since Jan 20 (+0.2% nominal, -2.3% real

 

This chart looks a lot like the Fidelity funds I've been charting, and you should remember that's why my wife's 401k remains sidelined, and [This 401(k) “Excessive Trading” Loophole Is Still Wide Open in 2026] 

 Where the Money Actually Fled: Rest-of-World +28% YTD—Trump's America? Hard Pass

$VXF  Vanguard Extended Market ETF Mimics Your Typical - TECH HEAVY - 401k Fund 

 

Meanwhile, Europe - over the same time period - is up 27.6% in USD terms since January. Japan’s Topix just printed a 35-year high. Gold is at all-time highs. Silver’s "" up 45% YTD. Even Canada is smoking us. Money didn’t disappear. It just left Trump’s America and never looked back.

 
Your 401k Isn’t Flying. Europe Is  $VEU Vanguard EX-US (means doesn't include Trump's US).  Luckily I was fortunate to see this trend coming from a mile a way, and we all piled into ROW stocks [I have to search for the link from March/April].    

I pointed to Europe's "historic, meteoric rise", back in May [link]   

Hammered home the point in this morning's tweet

Trump claims your 401k is flying high, and that's true IF YOU INVESTED IN EUROPE OR JAPAN, instead of the USA #TrumpAffordabilityCrisis pic.twitter.com/Md6W5YqAR4

— Veteran Market Timer (@3Xtraders) December 10, 2025

 

The Gaslight of the Year

 
So when Trump steps to the podium and brags about 401ks “flying,” he’s not misspeaking. He’s gaslighting. Because the only thing flying is capital — out of U.S. equities and into everything else on planet Earth. The dirty secret Wall Street won’t say out loud: The Trump stock-market narrative only works if you own a handful of mega-cap tech darlings. Own anything else — the stuff that actually fills most 401ks — and you’ve spent four years watching paint dry while Europe, Japan, and even precious metals laughed all the way up. Even the Trump Voters Are Calling It Out
Ed Dowd — yes, THE Ed Dowd; the same Ed Dowd who used to work for [insert a one line resume] who voted for Trump and still defends much of the agenda — went on a podcast a few weeks ago, and said flat-out, "Trump is gaslighting his voters" 

Ed Dowd: We're in a Recession Now, Trump's Gaslighting & Why

 

Even Ed Dowd—Trump voter, no less—called this stagnation 'something very wrong' on Tucker's pod last month. But the facts? They're the ultimate buzzkill.

 

I wish I had better news, and better outlook for 2026, but my outlook aligns with Ed Dowd's... and that giant sucking sound you're hearing?  A Third of Americans Are Cashing Out 401(k) Balances After Quitting Jobs: What Is Driving This Trend (investopedia). 

 

Take Care, AA  

P.S. Stay tuned because in the next blog we're going under the hood of the U.S. market and identify several sectors that continue to weigh on US markets. These aren’t “rotational laggards.” They’re corpses being propped up every time Nvidia or the AI complex has a good day. Includes the entire zombie banking sector. 

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