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Wednesday, September 30, 2026

Cayman Islands Hedge Funds Are Loading Up On U.S. Treasury Bills

The same trade I alerted to earlier in the week [link] - glad I don't have to live on a desolate Island to trade like a hedge fund manager. I hate the heat. No thanks! 

Why 90k Very Wealthy People Live On Island: Few natural resources. No natural source of fresh water.  Constantly battered by hurricanes. No Costco.  

Cayman Islands Hedge Funds Are Loading Up On U.S. Treasury Bills

This is the standout headline I spotted on the X platform this morning:



but this is nothing new. 

Like it or not, hedge funds are a permanent part of the Treasury market 


THE SCALE of the Treasury market is mind-boggling. Some $1trn in securities change hands each day. Trillions more are used as collateral for short-term loans. Financial institutions of all stripes are involved: banks, central banks, high-speed traders, insurers, endowments, pension funds, hedge funds and so on. (economist.com) 

So then, why are the usual suspects (@ barchart), and even CNBC [link], pumping this angle - this morning - on more than one platform? If you've been following this blog for any length of time, then you already know why... 

Now that the sell treasuries (short) trade has run its course, they've flipped the script. 

barchart US Treasury pump on Instagram 

Reminder: Barchart is the same outfit that was seen driving the recent coordinated route in S. Korean semiconductor stocks, and doing rug pulls on US tech, when S Korean markets were closed (holiday). [Read all about how: Chinese Reddit Traders Teamed Up To Help Create The Perfect Storm]   

To make a long story short: US Treasuries are being traded as part of the rotation we've seen pick up steam in nearly every other sector, and that's what I find truly mind-boggling.  


I've since raised the target on the 3X Treasury Bull $TMF - find the updated chart in the same place [stockcharts public hub] and we're already seeing the sellers covering their short positions.  




Seeing Green Arrows 

 





P.S. Other things we're watching - related: 1. Possible setup for another rout in equites, on the return of the usual energy trade - rotation: 



2. Possible shakeout in shares $MU Micron - ahead of tonight's earnings drop 
  



P.P.S. Reminder: I'll be out for a short stretch (not in the Cayman Islands) but I plan to be back in time for the kick off of Q4 window dressing. Wouldn't miss it for the world!  
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Monday, September 28, 2026

Monday Downside Surprise - Brand New Chart

I added another trade to the public hub on Friday - no paywall - absolutely free: Spoiler: it's the 3X Treasury Bull $TMF -  most contrarian play on Wall Street right now (I know)! Link to the public charts area @ stockcharts.com 

I already alerted to the chart on X on Friday, and if you were paying attention you've already started building a position. We already own Treasuries, in our 401k - not the $TMF. If you're new to leveraged ETF trading - you should read my cautionary disclaimer Word to the Wise: Leveraged ETFs Are Not for the Casual Investor

Heads-up: I'm taking a road trip later in the week - as soon as Micron reports - gas prices just dropped 50 cents over the weekend (my gain): I'll be trading from the road, but I probably won't be updating charts. If the charts I just added to the public hub start blowing up [link], you're on your own. Know how to set a stop loss. 

Quick update on futures - seeing another Monday morning rug pull this morning (the usual pivot - energy up/ tech stocks down) - look here (treasury yields) not there:

Tim Seymour (CNBC Fast Money) semiconductor stocks getting whacked(-3%). Gold (-3%, and gold miners - even worse (-5%) their other favorite sector getting absolutely schlonged.  Yields still blamed... yeah right! 🤣 

 PS. Last week's market update is still doing most the heavy lifting so be sure to skim the previous update (s): Yields Soar, Stocks & Bonds Selloff — So What? So What? So Let’s Trade






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Thursday, September 24, 2026

Yields Soar, Stocks & Bonds Selloff — So What?

So What? So Let’s Trade.

Bond Yields Soar, Contagion Spreads (Stocks & Bonds Selloff)

The trend continues. Market futures lower. Bond yields are upsetting markets, and this time it’s real. Panic selling in bonds is spreading to the interconnected complex: banks, real estate, consumer cyclicals, utilities, even REITs. 

The 10-year just tagged levels we haven’t seen since 2007. The 30-year is at a 2004 high. Last time the long end lived in this neighborhood, the same rate-sensitive names were the canary in the coalmine. Housing. Banks. Real estate. We all know the next chapter: the 2008 Armageddon trade.

That’s the hook. It’s not the trade — not today. 2008 didn’t show up as a VIX spike on day one either. It showed up as a slow bleed in the interconnected stuff first. March 2020 is the comparison everyone reaches for, and it’s the wrong one. That tape was a dash for cash — they sold Treasuries with everything else — and then the Fed cut, printed, and backstopped the system. That’s when the panic buying of tech and crypto (before the sentiment change) started. This time is different, but the canary is still singing. 

Same sector rotation I flagged after Yom Kippur: the wrong sectors are leading, BUT WITH THE ADDED CAVEAT -it's the rate-sensitive stuff that's unwinding the fastest.

Buy Yom Kippur — But The Wrong Sectors Are Leading

IF (big if) this keeps going, contagion can spread. As of today it hasn’t. Whole segments of the market are practically untouched — consolidating, not crashing — which is why the $VIX isn't skyrocketing. Don’t trade the headline. Trade the rotation.

The Sector Trade Most Traders Are About To Miss 


That's right: After a change of heart, and against my better judgment I’m offering one chart — the trade I tweeted just ahead of yesterday’s closing bell. 


$PNQI (Nasdaq internet). One chart. One vote.  

The live chart is on the revived 3Xtraders public list - vote it up daily:
https://stockcharts.com/public/1839526

Read the annotations carefully. Do your own due diligence. Know how to set a stoploss. When the chart is working trade it. When is stops working... stop trading.  To quote REO Speedwagon: you gotta roll with the changes. 



Vote the list. Daily. If it gets voted up, I’ll add more charts as earnings season kicks off. If there’s no interest in sector rotation, I’ll delete the list. Creating a detailed chart, and updating it (daily) is a lot of work. I’ve got better things to do if nobody is interested in sector trading 


For now: don’t catch the falling knives in the markets I already named — banks, real estate, homebuilders, utilities, REITs. Set stops. Keep trading whatever is actually working.


P.S.
Look at the other chart I added. Closely. Crude Oil Priced in Bitcoin (ETF) $IBIT

I believe oil deals are being done in bitcoin and gold. The Oil Priced in Bitcoin chart is not subtle. The targets are hitting. The only other explanation is coincidence.

There are no coincidences on Wall Street.

 


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Monday, September 21, 2026

"...Buy Yom Kippur", is Still In Play - But The Wrong Sectors Are Leading

The trade I pointed to a couple weeks ago [link]: "Sell Rosh Hashana, buy Yom Kippur". I had my doubts - at the time - ... but the selling did - in fact - continue right though triple witching Friday OPEX (options expiration), and that probably completes the cycle. 

Yet the same sectors that rallied last week are still leading - Not Financial, not the healthy, broadening-out rotation trade, not Aerospace, not even small-caps. 

Speculative Buying in Semiconductors & Crypto Continues 

Tim Seymour (producer @ CNBC) claims semiconductors are vastly "over-sold" - my charts dispute that claim, but let's ask Grok/ai, for a totally unbiased take on the technicals. 

3Xtraders Prompt: You know a little about stock charts/technicals. Is the semiconductor sector oversold, and if so, by what measure?

Grok's response: The semiconductor sector (SMH/SOXX) is not oversold. Daily 14-period RSI sits in the mid-50s—well above the classic <30 oversold threshold—and price remains above both the 50-day and 200-day moving averages after a 13–15% mid-year pullback from June highs that had followed extreme overbought readings (weekly RSI >80). That correction reset some excess but left the group in a neutral technical posture rather than a washout.

Semis Are Oversold Thesis Debunked 

What is the real reason Fast Money traders are piling into highly speculative trades rather than buying financials, and industrials. Here's the direct transcript from Thursday's the show [link to free muckrack/podcast] - Tim Seymour in his own words: 

Yup, he actually said that. Crypto's on fire too - but smart money isn't touching it

Cutting Through The BS 

CNBC Guest Katie Stockton nailed it:  08:06.469 --> 08:14.213

Well, the banks do look somewhat vulnerable, but everything has seen a pullback pretty much outside of the mega caps over the last two - three weeks.

A magic act so clever that most retail investors don't even notice.... but I cut though that mirage on Sept.10th [link]: 

"More *Broadening Rotations - More Broken Charts  

In hindsight while they've been levitating the market using the usual magic act (driving MAGS - including the only stocks that really matter ($NVDA, $AAPL, MSFT) higher, they were quietly unwinding the software-maggedon squeeze. Just as the msm told you the coast was clear?  

...but what may have flown under your radar (pun intended) is the great unwind in Aerospace (including Wall Street darling $GE - the one to watch) - and Airlines." 

Add to that home builders, retail (consumer discretionary) and every other sector they've unwound as earnings season approaches, and what becomes very clear is that we're about to see each one of these sectors window dressed (in Q4), as earnings come in miraculously, better than expected. 

That sets up for some of the Best Swing Trading in 20 Years [link]  

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Thursday, September 17, 2026

Best Swing Trading in 20 Years

How good was yesterday's swing trading? 15% in one day - kind of good - thanks in part to the abolition of the old day trading rules. I think it's taken a couple months to get used to day trading like a HFT hedge fund, after years of paying as much as $7 per trade, and then being forced to sit on your hands...- waiting for cash trades to settle. 😅

Reviewing The Tape 

  • Stocks rallied into the FOMC  
  • No sooner than Warsh started talking the VIX spiked to nearly 18.95, and stocks sold off - precisely at the red line I provided, yesterday morning. 👇
  • Nasdaq rallied back to close about unchanged. 


Here's Where The Real Money Was Made: 

  • Gold miners - the trade I called out in yesterday's update was immediately dumped. 
  • I subsequently bought the dip, and sold $GDXU for a second time (+4% off the lows).
  • 5 different sectors traded - I must have made 30 trades in all, guesstimating    
  • Buy The Dip Sell The Rip continues to work - investing in the major indices not so much. 


Apple & NVIDIA, both closed higher - bet you didn't know that! Lost in the shuffle. 


This morning it was announced that the new Apple CEO is attending the Trump Xi meeting - insider trading - explains the Apple rebound. 

I've been monitoring Apple closely, and I've called out the trade, several times.   


Time Is Money And The Golden Age Of Swing Trading Has Just Begun 

I'm not going to suggest that the average retail investor should roll their 401k into a Roth, so you can swing trade the hell out of it (like I do) - because most people lack the proper instinct, discipline, and the tools, which are necessary - in order to cut though the noise and trade the casino side of the market. 

The short list of stocks and sectors that should have been faded, when the talking heads were trying to sell you a healthy broadening out - narratives - is long, and time is short. Short list: $TRAN, Industrials - including names like $CAT, $DE, $CMI, Healthcare, several others still unwinding. 

 If you took yesterday's advice to chart sectors, then you're already seeing past smoke and mirrors. 

If you haven't had a chance to even get started - and that's understandable after yesterday's volatile session -  here's a glimpse of what you're missing. 

$NYP - Healthcare Index - currently testing 2024 levels. The annotations are self explanatory. I suspect this is a canary in the coal mine - the sector that finally bankrupts an entire nation. 


    


Last week I offered access to the best (bullish) stock - setup - I've seen in months , and nobody took me up on my offer.  The stock has since been upgraded, and is on track for another break out.


 The actual stock is now officially pulling out of the harbor. Boat missed, I'm afraid!    🚢





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Wednesday, September 16, 2026

FOMC In Focus - Don't Be Caught In The Headlights - Wednesday's Playbook

 

This pullback is starting to look like all the others — identical to every one we've seen over the past 2 years (minus the April '25 tariff crash):

The return of the Monday rug pull, usually starting overseas. I'm up at 2AM tracking it. Tiny moves, with obvious shakeouts below the moving averages. Mid-morning sell-offs on a glaringly low $VIX — looks like robbery in broad daylight. That's a tell.

Then comes the usual re-arranging of the deck chairs — the only stocks that matter. 


 

Even the revised script they're reading from is weak:
  1. AI doomers — Bill Gates plus a few politicians calling for regulation.
  2. Same old inflation story being parroted, this time calling for interest rate hikes to tank the economy — just in time for the midterms. These people have no shame.
  3. Here's what's not being reported: Europe is a mess, and we're probably seeing some contagion, but it's more fun to blame Trump for high gas prices.

Sorry if I sound repetitive, but it is what it is. European banks are collapsing right on schedule. Called it on Sept 10th:


Meanwhile, the same rush into hard assets — Crypto → Gold → Crude oil — is fueled by a vicious unwind in several safety trades, from Healthcare to Utilities. Don't take my word for it, chart it yourself. Homework: create a "sectors" folder and a "commodities" folder, and fill them with charts.

Same endless rotation in equities too — too many micro-sectors to mention. Good trading if you're able to cut through the noise and monitor what's going on beneath the surface, but that's way beyond what most retail investors can grasp in the little time they have to juggle trading with work and a social life.

I spend 60+ hours a week monitoring markets and searching for signals, and I guarantee I'm going to get it wrong much of the time. That requires serious money management, and I still can't say I'll ever hit critical mass. That probably sounds defeatist, but I'm a realist: 95% of retail investors fail to time markets consistently, and even if you find a system that works, you still need a market that provides a good trading environment.

Today's market keeps feeling like whac-a-mole — exciting at first, but it ultimately takes your money and leaves you frustrated. Ask the crypto investors who rushed to buy gold.

On Today's FOMC Statement

I prefer not to make predictions, but I expect the FOMC to stay deadlocked and for the market to shake the weak hands again. Sell the news — could be delayed a day.

I believe Kevin Warsh should call the market's bluff, although some market makers are looking for a "one and done." My take: there's no reason to raise rates, but a rate cut is also unlikely. The FOMC doesn't want to make a move during the midterms either. The market will likely throw a one-day tantrum on today's announcement — stocks to pull back, according to the chart.





$SPX is trending lower and the pattern's clear — a downturned wedge, or triangle. 

On a positive note: some of us are catching a nice bounce in gold miners this morning.

$NEM is the gold mining stock to watch:

$NEM is the gold mining stock to watch: 


P.S. My take on the AI regulation story, in a tweet:

AI is asking for regulation, but what they are getting is government protection, and immunity.

Analogy: Banks are regulated, so they are always bailed out, and seldom held accountable... instead we get more "hearings" (dog & pony shows), when they misbehave.

Big tech (AI) is…

— Veteran Market Timer (@3Xtraders) September 16, 2026

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Monday, September 14, 2026

Two Rug Pulls, One Week: You're Not Paying Attention

If you missed Friday's update you missed a lot, and judging by the number of views on Friday, most traders must think they already have a good handle on the current market. If you saw Friday's short squeeze coming, and you knew enough to take profits at Friday's close that includes you. If not then here's a link to the most important update of the summer:  Bonds, Banks, and $VIX: The Trade Nobody's Connecting 

Choppy Yet Navigable With The Right Charts   




  

In hindsight: although the broader market absolutely DOES suck - lacks leadership, or follow-through - it remains highly predictable, and that's what really matters. The $VIX charts are working like a charm - let that be your guide. "There is no fear but fear itself", rings true. 



As I pointed out in last week's highly informative series of post-summer updates, the sector rotations they tried to convince us were part of a, "healthy broadening out economy", is unwinding at light speed. 


What's driving the $VIX (fear gauge). Last week it was $6 diesel...

This week: AI going to kill us all within 10 years. And which stock get's taken down the hardest on the most obvious scripted PsyOp we've seen, since covid..? Trump pick - SoftBank Shares Drop -10% Amid Safety Warnings...(trending #1 on X)    

The $SFTBY chart: Yeah it's a sell, and I bet the entire house and Senate are already short! 

. 

Softbank trading in a bearish downturned channel

 I'll bet SpaceX and Tesla are also lower! Spoiler: YUP  

Breaking Alert: The 2nd PsyOp of the morning was just spotted trending #1: Sam Altman Warns of AI Dual Dangers to Humanity [link] 🤣- you can't make this shit up.



  • Bill Gates goes on CNN to announce that planet earth is in dire need of international AI regulation. 
  • Democrats - and even some Republican's follow suit - releasing their own public statements. 
  • Today full blown panic selling in Trump sponsored SoftBank. Not very convincing, yet I get a little nervous when I see the uni-party marching in lockstep.

Rough seas, but the charts are still the only compass that isn't lying to you


 


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Friday, September 11, 2026

Bonds, Banks, and $VIX: The Trade Nobody's Connecting

While the talking heads are pointing to $6 crude oil, attempting to fan the flames on Trumpflation - not gold this time - diesel fuel - and good luck trying to find a reliable chart. It's a niche trade, similar to nickel. I only charted it this morning, because it's one of the only news stories hitting the tape. Spoiler:

The Brent crude oil chart - I discovered after yesterday's close - is far more exciting..: 


That is NOT the chart that cracked the code on the current market. This is: 

 

1. $PBFKX - Pioneer Bond Fund (trades mostly US government backed treasuries). Price action just took out my downside target, at the lower end of the range (a classic pennant pattern). This is the chart that utterly destroys the liberal lame stream media false narrative, that "investors are making bets on higher interest rates". Funny thing is they're reporting this with a happy face - I haven't seen them having this much fun since they started blaming covid deaths on Trump, but I digress...  




2. Financials: I hinted at what I was looking at a couple days ago: 


It's absolutely not a coincidence that the protected - too big to fail - US banking system is holding up just fine, even as the supposed threat of higher debt and soaring interest rates are knocking at the door. Ironic. 

And without further ado: The 7th tweet response, below the pinned tweet alert I posted in my timeline yesterday. It's like a treasure hunt finding it - explains why it got so few views. Click on the tweet below to get a better view of the bullish consolidation pattern - landing right on key support in real time. 

In case you're still scratching your head: the powers that shouldn't be have no intention of allowing US financials to collapse as they did in 2008, and that's what makes the above chart an absolute tell. It proves that the bull market - if you can even call it that - remains on track. 

3th Chart I discovered had to be updated, before the pattern - a clean parallel channel - came into view. Click on my response to the tweet below - to find one of the best charts of the day (only got 23 views). Just goes to show how little attention is paid to the most valuable information. 

$SVXY - The Infamous $VIX bear ETF


One of the main reasons the fear PsyOp needed to be ramped up - was to coincide with the republican convention, so in hindsight it was the perfect storm, and I'm not sure it's entirely over. The midterms aren't over by a long shot.   

 The week in review: The action was not all that terrible, unless you were trying to bottom pick one of the sectors CNBC Fast Money has been shamelessly pumping all year - too many to mention. 

 The Broader Market Is Set For a Rebound

The S&P only ended down .5% - yet managed to shake the weak hands just below the 50 day SMA.   

Support on the SPY is the June high ($759). The Chart speaks for itself. 


P.S. Happy 9/11 Patriots! Never stop exposing the truth about what really happened on this day in history! Only 80% of Americans believe the official narrative.  




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Thursday, September 10, 2026

Summer Wrap-Up: Post Labor Day View: Light Volume, Heavy Rotation - Part II

 I gave a way a lot in yesterday's update -  Summer Wrap-Up: Post Labor Day View: Light Volume, Heavy Rotation (Part I) - covering 8 sectors + the $VIX.  That was before yesterday's mid-morning breakout on the $VIX, along with several more important observations:  

Firstly a couple quick corrections:    

1. I was right about the sell-off starting in Europe, but Claude (AI) flagged my tweet calling HSBC "Chinese owned". I still had questions: 


Gemini (google AI) confirms:  "HSBC is a London-based bank with a Hong Kong and Shanghai logo because of its colonial history and global corporate restructuring. 

Although HSBC is headquartered in London today, it was originally founded in Hong Kong and Shanghai in 1865." 
I did not know corporate logos were a thing back in 1865, but I also did NOT know, Hong Kong was legally and practically a British colony for over 150 years. And that concludes today's history lesson.
2. I claimed financials and biotech were still leading the bull market, but that was last week's news. In fact healthcare & Biotech, is getting absolutely pummeled, and financials are on a 3 day losing streak. I'm still getting caught up after last week's road trip - try to keep up with me. I actually sounded the warning last week saying: How long can rotation trades continue to fuel the broader rally? Not much longer, I'm afraid [link to the August 22nd blog]. 

On to for more important things 
$SOXL - called out yesterday:   $SOX was sold at the 50 day SMA. You should already know that. If I had to guess I'd say it could break out, but don't ignore the algos.  


More *Broadening Rotations [Unwinds] = More Broken Charts  

In hindsight while they were levitating the market using the usual magic act (driving MAGS - including the only stocks that really matter ($NVDA, $AAPL, MSFT) higher, they were quietly unwinding the software-maggedon squeeze. Just as the msm told you the coast was clear?  

You'd have to be living under a rock not to catch the August short squeezes, but what may have flown under your radar (pun intended) is the great unwind in Aerospace (including Wall Street darling $GE - the one to watch) - and Airlines. 

$GE - trend technically broken, but seeing some machine buying at the 200 day SMA. 


Are stocks selling off in a panic? No. Just another - sleight of hand - rotation. 
BUT EUROPE IS IN DEEP TROUBLE: 
This isn't an opinion - it's based on the recent flight to hard assets in Europe, and the fact that the $FEZ (the European banking sector) just had the rug pulled below the 50 day sma. 


Breaking: ECB just rated a quarter point as expected. Here in the US we're still watching the 50 day on the $SPX, and a Federal reserve that reports next week. 
$VIX level to watch is the 50 day moving average - right where yesterday's breakout occurred. 
CNBC is seen fanning the flames:   

 

 As I pointed out yesterday: it's a complicated market and more bifurcated than ever. I obviously can't micromanage 15 things at once, so all I can tell you is to watch the moving averages, and follow my timeline. Good luck

*Broadening rotation refers to a made up term - Morgan Stanley - which we covered in a previous blog [linked] - section title - The Rotation Hustle, Confirmed By Morgan Stanley's Own Word Salad Chef - Mike Wilson  


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Wednesday, September 9, 2026

Summer Wrap-Up: Post Labor Day View: Light Volume, Heavy Rotation

Light volume continues to dominate this week, but that didn't stop fund managers from dumping European equities overnight. 

The talking heads are blaming higher crude oil prices, HSBC quietly let the cat out of the bag:
  That's dragging on US futures, not a retest of the recent highs in oil. 


Rotation trades that continue to work: 

1. Energy - continues to break out to new all time highs. 
2. The rigged on light holiday volume $SOXL trade in semiconductors. I spotted this one coming from a mile away, but sadly I had to cut my gains short, because I was trading while on a road trip. 

3. Financials - government protected (still making slightly higher highs). As long as the $VIX continues to be beaten - like a rented mule - that can continue. 


4. Healthcare/ Biotech was leading... until yesterday morning. 

Compare That to A Multitude of Trade That Are NOT Working 

Starting With Gold Miners: August 30th I was calling the sell-off in Gold, and gold miners "overdone", and low-and-behold we caught a nice bounce - going into last Thursday's closing bell - exactly where I sold the rip. We saw a sharp pullback on Friday, but buyers rushed in before I could buy the dip. I think we could see another bounce this morning, as the mad rush for hard assets continues, but I wouldn't be caught dead in this trade. Consider this a warning, after the trade suddenly fell flat on its face... Play with fire, and you're liable to get burned.  

Tech stocks: Doesn't matter if you call them Mag7, or AI Hyperscalers,  
FOMO buying in big tech/ AI names is dead. Don't forget Dow Technology stocks $DJUSTC rallied over 100% - April 2025 - June 2026, and still need to correct. When, who knows? Sell Rosh Hashana, buy Yom Kippur, NEVER seems to work as planned. Will this time be different? Probably not.        

Don't Confuse Whipsawing Markets with a Bull Market  

Case in point $ARK - I called out this trade back in Feb. [link] - holds lots of Tesla, $SPCX (Musk bets), Coinbase, $HOOD ( recently lifted by the snap-back rally in crypto). The pattern clearly shows the price action whipsawing in a broadening triangle pattern - still trading below the 2025 high.  

I trolled Kathy Wood early this morning: Basically told her to sell her own fund. 
Nobody trades that junk, but it's a perfect example of why I like to dissect funds into each of their individual components: The chart confirms that the entire late summer rally was driven on the heels of yet another speculative rally in trash - including crypto. That's not a bull market. 

But Not Only Crypto & AI: 
Several markets continue to whipsaw, and retest the April highs, but at the end of the day stocks remain trapped in a range. I still think we're still on track for a sharp correction, and 4 months sideways action - on light summer volume - doesn't change that. The April 2025 rally was overdone, and the April 2026 rally, even more so. 

Continued Lack of Leadership 

Tech (minus $NVDA) no longer leading. $FNGS, even $NYFANG continues to trade at Memorial Day levels. 





The market is more bifurcated than ever, and even agriculture has joined the rotation party. That's a hell of a lot for the average investor to wrap their head around. 

As I said: Volume is light, and that makes predicting the near term, nearly impossible. Hopefully we get some more clarity, once the adults return to the table. Looking ahead to the next FOMC meeting - Sept. 16th - 1 week from today. 

In the meantime: I'm watching crude oil trading with the $VIX. IF (big if) Trump convinces Russia and Ukraine to agree to even a temporary cease fire, the whole fear trade is bound to suddenly unwind - just ahead of the midterms. 
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Sunday, August 30, 2026

Gold vs Bitcoin: Decoupling, or Debasement Trade Rotation?

Let's begin with a mind blowing chart view that I'm sure nobody else is pointing to this morning: 

 Spot Gold Price In Euros - 40 year chart - In hindsight: the snapback rally in gold was triggered as the price action bounced off the upper channel line on the golden $EUR - not on dollar weakness, bond yields, Bessent, or the endless media speculation about what Kevin Warsh might say at Jackson Hole - media saturation. Gold priced in EUROs simply bounced off the upper trend line. 


Funny you don't hear about the collapse of the EURO, only the $USD  - meanwhile the EURO priced in gold reads like the tape on a worthless penny stock. Like a failed experiment.  

Who else's currency is in deep trouble? punchline: Whose isn't?  The Australia's Ausi Dollar! Homework assignment: Chart the gold rally in Ausi dollars. 

And they just happen to mine gold there! Ever hear of Newmont? 

Needless to say: Gold miners were run up AHEAD of Warsh's speech at Jackson Hole - 

 That wasn't the only warning I gave that Jackson Hole was beginning to look like a "sell the news" event, for gold miners. 

Friday Morning CNBC was seen pumping "Newmont" $NEM, and materials stocks (craftily setting the bull trap): 


What followed was a massive bear raid on gold miners. Coincidence? 🤷 

See the conviction buying on the 3X bear ETF - record volume! 

 Is this snap reaction the beginning of a larger sell-off in precious metals? That remains to be seen, but the conviction buying in the $GDXD should give you pause. 

I'm obviously not the only one who was anticipating the move that broke the chart patterns we were watching - in Thursday's update [linked]

I think Friday may have been a little over-done - and given all the short interest heading into a banking holiday on Monday (in Europe). Labor Day in 2 weeks. 

Gold vs Bitcoin: Decoupling, or Debasement Trade Rotation

Bitcoin ended rather weak, and the short sellers are already licking their chops. 

Here's why...: 

Bitcoin seems to be trading counter to gold - may even be a new rotation within the debasement trade. 
$BTC used to trade more like a high beta tech asset, before perception changed. Today it trades more like gold's moody cousin who missed the family meeting. 🤣

 The $GOLD:$GBTC (Gold Priced in Bitcoin) is a chart that has to be seen, to be believed: Shows exactly why the rip your face off rally in Gold, the biggest move we've seen in several months, was immediately followed by a face melting rally in Bitcoin, and if you follow Peter Schiff you know these 2 factions have been battling since  last Nov., 2025. Refresher: Crypto collapsed, and gold, and silver surged. I covered it back in Dec. - "When Flash Surges and Flash Crashes Collide: Silver's Post-Christmas Magic Trick"  [linked]  

 


AI confirms Bitcoin is absolutly being traded in gold, and the proof is in the charts!: 


Take care this week, as trading volume dries up again, heading into Labor Day.   

P.S. 

Beware of shadowy characters who command a massive presence on X, and Telegram: 




One shocking example of an account I had previously blocked - unblocked just to take a closer look: 

 

Follow the links at your own risk

    A quick Gemini/AI query reveals what may be hidden behind the curtain: 

 1. Flipper (The Tool)

Flipper Zero is a popular, open-source portable multi-tool used by tech enthusiasts, developers, and hardware hackers. It interacts with physical hardware and wireless frequencies (RFID, NFC, Infrared, and Sub-GHz). 
  • In a Web3 context, "flippers" also refers to a specific trader persona who acquires digital assets (like NFTs or token presales) strictly to sell them immediately for a quick profit. [1]
2. Degen (The Archetype)
Short for "degenerate," this is a slang term originating in DeFi (Decentralized Finance) and crypto communities. A degen represents a high-risk crypto trader who buys into speculative, unverified tokens or experimental projects without doing traditional due diligence. When paired with Flipper, it points to a specific demographic crossover: hardware hackers who apply the same high-risk, "try it and see if it breaks" mentality to hardware exploitation and custom radio configurations.
3. Threador (The Target/Protocol Hack)
This is a wordplay blending Thread (the smart home wireless mesh protocol) with the "or" suffix commonly found in crypto personas (like Investor or Liquidator). [1, 2]
  • The Hacking Angle: Security researchers utilize the Flipper Zero to explore and audit the Thread smart-home protocol. By hooking up low-cost external radio dev boards (like an nRF52840 or ESP32-C6) via the Flipper Zero GPIO pins, users act as "Threadors." They inject traffic, build OpenThread boundary nodes, and audit the low-level data packets passing through Thread-enabled smart doors and IoT appliances. 

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