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Tuesday, November 10, 2026

Fed’s Waller Acts As The Fly In The Ointment — Throws Cold Water On The Launching Pad

We had a really nice rally going yesterday, and a multiday win streak in gold, but then it happened: 

Just as New York traders were waking up, Bloomberg TV splashed a blood-red BREAKING NEWS banner across the screen—running live tape straight from London: 

FEDS WALLER STATES HALF POINT HIKE MAY BE NECESSARY IN DEC... - sound familiar? It should. This is the same story they used to tank markets in August.

  • Stock futures immediately turned south. 
  • $USD rallied.
  • Gold got flushed... 

 One might ask: What Purpose Does This Serve - Fed Members Endlessly Jawboning?

    • Managing Financial Conditions Without Action: The Fed uses verbal intervention as a zero-cost policy tool. By dropping hawkish hints before key inflation data, they cool down financial conditions and douse equity/gold rallies without having to actually hike rates. Translation: We really don't want to hike in Dec., so we're going to signal a whopper hike, instead.

    • Preventing Asset Bubbles in Overheated Markets: BTW did you see that blistering tech rally, yesterday?. Central bankers dread runaway markets..

    • Creating Institutional Entry Points: Just as retail starts chasing the tech snapback and precious metals bid, a Fed speaker steps up to throw cold water on the tape—giving institutional desks another volatility dip to absorb inventory (buy lower).



Wall Street is smart enough to see right through the Fed's jawboning, but the old saying, "don't fight the Fed," still holds true. Waller just laid out the roadmap—threatening a half-point hike in December if markets keep overheating. Between last week's BIGGER THAN EXPECTED employment report and the next FOMC meeting just four weeks away, the central bank is throwing cold water. 

Look at London— FTSE flirting with record highs before getting a rude awakening from a hawkish Fed guest speaker. The Riddler could NOT have choreographed this any better! 

Back at home (in the U.S.), I'd expect some healthy consolidation after yesterday's blistering run in semiconductors. I never expected the gold rally to last, and gold miners look downright bubbly—with many still clinging near all-time highs. Keep your eyes on Jr. Gold Miners after they tested their 50-day SMA yesterday.



I'm only looking for a pullback ahead of the holiday setup or a potential Santa rally, depending on how long the digestion takes. We'll be watching the FOMC meeting - fo sho 👀

Sounds simple enough - seldom is. 

Anyway, GL.




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Monday, November 9, 2026

Market Remains In A Holding Pattern - With NVIDIA Sitting On The Launch Pad



I'm sure you've all heard the talking heads parroting the same story, since it broke last night - right around the time US futures opened - no surprise (timing-wise) looking at this from my usual, highly cynical/conspiratorial view. 

The first detailed report Oct. 29th, published by the New York Times-  was an exclusive report revealing that U.S. intelligence agencies viewed the Nvidia CEO as the target of a Chinese espionage plot. 

I was kind of blown away that the story was mostly ignored by the msm, yet it immediately lit up my radar.  



Fast forward to 11/8/2026 - Last Night (nearly 2 weeks later): 
  • Jensen Huang's formal apology - email. I'll spare you the details. 
  • Nvidia's board of directors launches an independent investigation. 
  • A federal investigation is also being launched (allegedly) into NVIDIA. 


The whole thing looks like another classic media narrative distraction, while smart money (Including our HFIT [high frequency insider trading] Congress) loads up on NVIDIA shares - at a huge discount (26% off the all-time highs - as of Friday's close). 

The $VIX being carefully balanced back above the 20 level, to keep sellers sidelined. 

Fits the calendar/ cycle - wait for everyone to get short, and then drive markets on light holiday volume - short covering. You know the drill. 

The other stock they love to hate? 

Tesla ($TSLA): The narrative-driven (Dems vowing to go after Elon..) selloff in Tesla creates another classic sentiment disconnect where short-term political noise masks underlying manufacturing execution - not to mention its valuation once you factor in SpaceX (merger talk). 

The chart tells the story of how Wall Street absolutely planned to trap Tesla bulls, once the election results were revealed. 


I'm not trading Tesla, don't plan to trade it. If you like it, watch for a shakeout, below 335, followed by a bullish reversal. If I'm wrong, and it takes out the previous low - around $300 - that level becomes your pivot. 

I remain bullish, ahead of the holidays, and not just big tech (the only sector that matters), and we're planning to add another maximum 401k contribution in 2 weeks. I'm sure by the time, once the Thanksgiving turkey is pardoned, Congress will be holding hands, and singing kumbaya. 


P.S. Fun fact: Department of Justice (DOJ) & Commerce Department: U.S. authorities have been investigating Singapore-based Megaspeed since 2024 over suspicions that the firm illegally funneled advanced Nvidia AI chips to China. The Commerce Department has officially handed this investigation over to the Justice Department. 

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Friday, November 6, 2026

The Tech AI Sell Off That Couldn't Even Fool Retail

Quick Rundown of yesterday's tape - in case you were absent on Thursday - lucky you!: 


  • Volatility immediately spiked at the open 
  • There were few hiding places to be found - even energy took another leg lower. 
  • By the end of the day - what used to be the hottest sector - SOX Semiconductor index had crashed like we haven't seen - I think - since the covid crash. 
  • Technology the most widely owned sector - by far - down (-8%).
  • Nothing was spared - the baby was thrown out with the bathwater.  
 Honestly, if I had to choose only one word to describe Thursday's action: BRUTAL 

Yet the $VIX still remains below 30, and that means I'm still on track to buy the dip as planned. I don't want to leave anybody hanging, after a day like that.  

The Lack of Volume is a Tell 

As bad as things looked at yesterday’s close, selling volume DOES NOT confirm Capitulation.

We  didn’t see record selling volume in the NASDAQ Composite, or even the $SOX. In fact we saw heavier selling volume back in July, during the summer. Of course, selling volume was heavy, but it was NOT earth-shattering. Let's pull up a simple semi chart: 



$SMH (VanEck Semiconductor ETF) - $SOXX also works, and looks about the same. Check me out on that.... chart it for yourself.  1. Volume doesn't point to capitulation in the space. 2. There's a gap target in plain sight - if the powers that be want to break the chart, ahead of the holidays I'm sure they won't have any trouble... but as of today the chart isn't broken. 3. The bullish trend remains intact - represented by my lower blue line. 4. The chart pattern: resembles a downturned megaphone, or triangle if you prefer. 

My personal opinion is that this bear raid was rushed, because: 1. Thanksgiving is in less than 3 weeks, and 2. Hanukkah comes early this year, and even the dumb bear raiders know not to sell a dull tape.

Final point: The selling on the $KOSPI is also less than convincing. Sure, they were able to break the $KORU - the 3X Bull ETF, and there was record selling volume as it crashed 37.39% - yet the KOSPI itself was only down 5%? 😏  That points to just another narrowly focused, 1 day bear raid - not pure panic. 

 Seeing the $KORU up 11% this morning. No sign of follow-though, after yesterday's selling. 

 


 

 P.S. Shout out to S. Korean traders just as trading on the $KOSPI was halted: 





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Thursday, November 5, 2026

Cutting Through The CNBC Pro Paywall and Cashing In — With the Help of AI

This morning I was skimming my X timeline, and immediately found CNBC pumping gold miners on Nov. 3rd (on Tuesday). BTW they want you to pay for CNBC Pro to read it. Uh, no. 

Spoiler: I went directly to AI, and asked which gold miner was being called "a cash machine", and not only did it give me the answer — in like 2 seconds — but it identified the author as the CNBC producer and shameless pump-master himself, Tim Seymour 🤣

This guy has been crying about gold miners for several months — but it takes the cake when you feel like you have to write an article to pump the #2 top holding (AEM) in the $GDX, in order to drive the ETF up 12% in a single day. 

 Am I the only one who sees this charade for what it is, and questions the ethics? 

Nevertheless, I say, if you can't beat 'em, join 'em — for FREE

And here I thought I had to earn money the old fashioned way. Glad that's solved. 

#ProTips:

  • Immediately follow CNBC.

  • Use AI to peek behind the paywall.

  • Load the boat, and wait for the cash machine to pay.

  • Better yet, buy the 3X bull ETF and buckle up, buttercup.


$GDXU was up a whopping +27% — OOPH — looks like they sure squeezed the short sellers this time! 


Of course, this trade isn't only limited to gold miners. I'll spare you a second bullet on this, but use your imagination. 

And don't forget: What goes up must inevitably come down, and I'm more interested in swing trading gold miners - still trading in a bear market - than chasing a bunch of yahoos, off a cliff. Don't pay CNBC $300 a year for the privilege of reading their pumps — send me the money instead!


Speaking of CNBC: I absolutely roasted them in a tweet yesterday, and its already got 44 likes: 



China is running btw - the Democrats are mostly favorable to the Chinese and since they won, you can bet they are going to make some sweetheart deals - and you may want to brush up on your mandarin . just in case China wins the AI race. Look, they don't protest datacenters over there, unless they want to end up on the "voluntary" organ-donor transplant list.     





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Wednesday, November 4, 2026

Futures Plunge As Democrats Sweep Congress. Smart Money Buys The Dip


If you watch market futures like a hawk, like I do... then you saw the volatility ramp up around the time it became clear Democrats were going to sweep... 

Last time we saw anything like this was when Trump won - the first time - and Dow futures plunged 1000 points - which was a big move... in 2018. Futures traders were dead wrong, and the market snapped right back, at the open. Similar to what we saw overnight.

"Technology stocks took a hit (down as much as -2.4% at one point) as investors worried about tougher AI regulations. (ibtimes.com)" Pure narrative spin: Truth is, nobody knows who was dumping or why—idiots selling the news, and algos aiming for a liquidity flush, are a dime a dozen.

Apparently someone didn't get the memo: Asian traders perhaps over-reacting, algos selling the news, midnight gamblers? Prediction markets got it right, and Wall Street has already been pricing in a Democrat House, and Senate, since the end of the summer.


It was hilarious watching the political talking heads attempt to explain away market futures falling off a cliff - as they attempted to hide their utter exuberance. They even act like they don't know that the Dems have promised to go after Elon Musk - even this morning as Tesla and SpaceX are tanking.  "Democrats have a message for Elon Musk: Watch out!" (politico). 

The Sector Rebalance The Talking Heads Also Don't Like To Talk About

  1. The defense sector has been absolutely obliterated (less war spending)
  2. Healthcare & Biotech making new highs (healthcare for illegals) - even European traders are excited about the prospect of universal health. 
  3. The AI/Tech sell-off (more regulation = less data center building)  
  4. Higher Taxes on employers (aka "the rich"? No, Trump still has veto power.
  5. Climate spending returns - this one could be veto-proof. 
  6. Energy Deals can be priced out.  
  7. Trump Impeachment unlikely. 
For The Time Being Most Things Should Remain Mostly Unchanged  

  • The republicans are NOT contesting the election results.
  • Trump has already offered an olive branch to the Dems
  • Corporations still own our politicians in Washington = AI investment will continue to ramp up - rest assured - regardless of the rhetoric.
  • Out of control spending will continue - the Uniparty system guarantees it.
So Now What? Now, A Relief Rally - $VIX is already being crushed in pre-market down nearly (-20%). Trust that over the fake news headlines. 

Same sector I mentioned in yesterday's blog [linked] - start reading - halfway down the page. Spoiler: The only sector that can lead... BIG TECH.


I no longer like small cap value; after its recent blistering run. I do however like the same sector chart I offered a few months back...
$PNQI (NASDAQ Internet ETF) just landed right on its 200-day SMA. That is the exact technical signal triggering machine buying right now.

#ProTip: Don't rush in - wait for trades to settle at the open. 

There are plenty of trades to be found, just remember the selling was overdone in certain sectors, while the buying was overdone in several others.  




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Tuesday, November 3, 2026

The Bearish Pivot Out of Crude Oil, and Energy Stocks - Where Does The Money Go Next



While the talking heads ignore yesterday's absolute crash in crude oil - Fast Money producer Tim Seymour is busy spinning political conspiracy theories about "oil futures" - I'm celebrating, yet another win.  

The Recipe: 

"Sunday, Oct. 25th - The Real Market Bubble - That's Flying Under Everybody's Radar

Not AI. Not Big Tech. Those are required to keep the 20-year bull alive.

ENERGY" [link to full blog]


$USO DCS Chart - Typical topping pattern - funny Fast Money's chart master didn't alert anyone to the inherent danger of chasing an over-bought rally.

What ARE the talking heads sounding alarm bells on? Nope, not Apple earnings - not French bond yields either.

They are fretting over The Proposed Valuation Anthropic IPO - Is It Worth $2t, or only $1.5t? 🤣

Speaking of Apple: 

The $AAPL chart sells off towards my green support line - the one I pointed to yesterday evening. 


As I stated last year, around this time Apple is one of the only stocks that matters - because of its obvious heft.

If they were to allow Apple to tumble it would pull the $SPX down, and I believe the majority of money managers are interested in harvesting a 4th year of capital gains - at the end of 2026. The end of the quarter is only 2 months away, so it's time!



The January 2026 Blog Doesn't Only Rhyme With Today's Market It's Nearly Identical...

you gotta see this for yourself
[link to the full January blog]

The Core weave & Oracle Stories never seem to get old...

The actual "Names To Watch - The Top 3 Heavily Weighted Mag7 Names in the Dow
  • $NVDA Nvidia #1 AI leader 
  • $AAPL Apple - makes wearable smart stuff 
  • $MSFT Microsoft AI leader"  


Of course the semiconductor space is a big part of the unhealthy AI rotation, so let's throw up a chart - 
$SOX DCS Match Game Chart: Shows an identical shakeout just below the 200-day SMA — same as the one we saw in August 2024, with the same evil geniuses still running the table.



Certain sectors look downright scary—even consumer staples, which have served as a safe hiding place - e.g., $MO traded to new all-time highs, yesterday. Home builders and transport stocks hitting recent highs - crickets from the talking heads? Classic misdirection.

Pick your sectors wisely, because there's only one sector that can lift the tech heavy S&P 500 - into 4th Quarter Window dressing.  The same High Beta AI sector they just tried to shake you out of.  

 


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Saturday, October 31, 2026

The Quarterly Rebalance They Tried To Call A "Tech Selloff"

The Friday Bloodbath Everybody Saw Coming From a Mile Away 

Last Week's "Tech Selloff" - Trick or Treat? 

Yeah, Friday's session was a bloodbath for big tech (NASDAQ -3.5%) - yet small caps only pulled back - risk on indicator. That's an absolute tell. 👀 

 (typo fix- they want your tech shares) 

Here I am - hold my beer - calling for another 5% - 10% drop on most hated Trump stock pick, INTEL.



That points to just another bear raid - not panic. 

The $VIX couldn't even manage to close above the 20 level. The $VIX don't lie, like the talking heads. 

Smells Like Another Trick To Me - they only sold the junk they already don't like - INTEL (-29%).   


We saw this pullback coming a mile away - minus the fake blood, just in time for Halloween. 🧛🩸 


Did Jim Cramer just capitulate - calling this a stock-pocalypse - or am I watching a bad rerun? 

 Here's his current boss running a similar psyop: "SELL, SELL, SELL!"



Meanwhile: we're still making 80% contributions to the 401k - and I suggest you do the same.  [disclaimer: consult a certified financial planner, before investing]  

If the $VIX continues to gain traction above the 20 level, and gets into the 30's then I would be forced to reevaluate that strategy.  

Make no mistake: massive AI CapEx will eventually become a legitimate macro concern. When that day comes, the $VIX will have zero trouble exploding past 30, 100, and beyond. But Friday wasn't that day. Friday was a manufactured nothing-burger. 

Read more »
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Tuesday, October 27, 2026

Best Trade Of The Year - Says A Lot About This Market


The Brazil Crash  

 

Did I sell into the election? No... trying to call a crash is a fool's errand.

I bought the dip on the $BRZL - just after pre-market trading opened - before there was much of a bid...  

  • First order filled @ 7.99
  • Second order @ 7.25 
  • & lo and behold - before the end of the trading session - I found myself up well over 100%. I may not recollect how I ended up back in the black in October (a rough month), but I'm pretty sure the daily double in $BRZL is my best trade of the year. 

 This is the same ETF I featured in my Oct. 6th, 2026 blog: "newly created $BRZL 3X Brazil Bull ETF was up 40% before lunch. #ChaChing Chart has already been added to the public charts list [linked]".  Same leveraged ETF I added to the public charts hub in Oct. The same chart nobody paid any attention to. 

What this trade says about the broader market is that there are a growing list of meme trades to take advantage of - but end up on the wrong side of the trade, and you can find yourself down 80% in a thinly traded ETF, before the opening bell, with no bid underneath. Just look at what a handful of slick hedge funds did to the South Korean ($KOSPI), over the summer, or the recent Elice IPO, even though currently there is no leveraged product for Elice. So much for blaming market volatility on leverage. 

There will be winners and losers, and this is why I recently called this pin action the

Best Swing Trading in 20 Years 


Oh, And For The Rest Of This Rotten Market? 


There are trades to be had - i.e., the latest 2 day win streak in semiconductors - but when the talking heads are breathlessly trying to steer you away from the hottest trade, by throwing terms like "falling knife" - like a troll army working for the hedge funds instead of a news organization - good luck. 



We're Supposed To Worry About The Next Fed Announcement - tomorrow Wednesday 

That sets up for another taper tantrum, as yields spike - and hopefully a buying opportunity like the one we just found in Brazil!  Viva! 

Saúde! 
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Sunday, October 25, 2026

The Real Market Bubble - That's Flying Under Everybody's Radar

Not AI. Not Big Tech. Those are required to keep the 20-year bull alive.

ENERGY

The bubble almost nobody is talking about is the place everyone ran for cover after Trump’s tough talk (Independence Day Sanctions) crashed the market: the same trade that has been driving European equities into bubble territory. The “safe,” boring, dividend-paying value stocks—specifically the megacap energy names that continue to serve as the ultimate investor hiding place. It is the only sector still trading at all-time highs.

Wall Street hates the C-word (competition) even more than the I-word (inflation). Just look at how T-Mobile is being crushed on the prospect of going up against SpaceX/Spectrum. Energy is no different. Oil drilling is an ancient technology facing real, incremental competition from nuclear capacity additions and low-emissions hydrogen.

Same subject showed up in an AI query the next day. One of those uncanny coincidences:


Fun Fact: ExxonMobil (XOM) and Chevron (CVX) are the two largest integrated U.S. oil and gas companies, both tracing their roots back to the historic Standard Oil Company founded by John D. Rockefeller.

Here Comes The Midterms & The Battlefield Is Already Taking Shape:

  

Fossil-fuel firms in line for billions in benefits after answering Trump’s donation call - and Democrats Are Furious 

"The estimate of $190bn savings for industry is calculated from existing tax breaks and subsidies over the next 10 years plus new benefits delivered by the One Big Beautiful Bill...

In addition to an estimated $201m investment in Trump’s re-election campaign, industry executives contributed $19m to his inaugural fund, which the report described as “the largest political investment the industry has ever made”.  (theguardian.com)


The Battle For Alaska 

 Alaska is a Republican stronghold in an energy-rich state: The stakes are so high that the Trump administration’s Justice Department is threatening to sue to preemptively block certification of the Senate results if Dan Sullivan loses (citing a second candidate with a nearly identical name). Sullivan has made the 807-mile natural gas pipeline the centerpiece of his re-election. A loss to Mary Peltola would remove its most influential Senate advocate. Even if Peltola has expressed support for the pipeline and local refining, her broader platform aligns with national Democrats’ focus on restoring renewable tax credits and alternative infrastructure. A broader Democratic gain in either chamber shifts federal priorities away from traditional fossil-fuel subsidies.

Someone is making a lot of money... and doesn't know how to keep their mouth shut  

Three things are still driving the energy bubble right now:


  • The Trump Trade: from “Drill Baby Drill” to the ongoing “Bomb Bomb Bomb… Iran” posture, straight from the McCain/Lindsey Graham playbook.

  • The Safety/Value Trade: fueled by the inflation narrative and higher yields. Before you can say “20-year Treasuries,” the algos have already rotated capital. They call it safe. I call it the ultimate value trap.

  • Dumb retail money is all-in: once crypto cooled, the crowd found nano Crude Oil Futures on Coinbase Derivatives and DEX tokens representing crude. You couldn’t have planned a cleaner setup for the moth-to-flame trade.

We’ve seen this movie before: Peak-oil theory was pushed hard in 2008 right before the trap door was flung open. Oil is likely to make the biggest short-term reversal; energy equities will follow.


Energy became the alt-rotation trade out of tech. It is now acting like the FOMO names it replaced.

That turns the “safe hiding place” into a value trap. The bubble flying under everybody’s radar is not

in the technology still needed to drive the longer bull. It is in the ancient technology everyone decided

was the place to hide.



John McCain Sings the outro: "Bomb bomb bomb, bomb bomb Iran"




P.S. 

P.S. Friday’s Fast Money episode provided a textbook example of the institutional legacy media playbook. Resident chart monkey Carter Worth whipped out an OIH-to-XLE comparison chart to pitch a convenient "catch-up play". Right on cue, the panel nodded in synchronized agreement. Tim Seymour dutifully disclosed he is long his favorite component of that index, but let's be real about the architecture of financial television: when the microphones turn on, the talking heads are paid to talk their own book. It’s an elegant system designed to manufacture retail demand right at structural technical resistance. If you like SLB, look at the actual tape—it's trading right into another Head & Shoulders pattern—rather than buying the smoke being blown on cable TV. Trust the charts, not the scripts. 



You like SLB? Then show the chart - trading into another H&S - rather than blowing smoke.   


That concludes the dumb money segment. 

Trust the charts; not the talking heads.  
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Wednesday, October 21, 2026

The AI Selloff, SpaceX, Coreweave, & Oracle All Have This Common

  Lately, every other market move I uncover seems to read like a crime scene.

You'd have to be living under a rock to not know the "AI selloff" is a thing—yet the talking heads keep pointing at CoreWeave... Well, after a little digging, I found that the bear market they're actually fanning the flames on is the sell-off in "neo-cloud." Think of these as the nano-scalers' answer to compute power that the hyperscalers can't provide fast enough. In short: It's power on demand, and it's hurting Microsoft's profit margin.

To get a breakdown, I ran a query through Gemini on the etymology and history of the term. Shifting past the corporate jargon, here is the raw reality of what a "neo-cloud" actually is:

  • The Paradigm Shift: It's the structural split from Cloud 1.0 (general-purpose IT hosting) into Cloud 2.0—highly specialized, physical hardware acceleration optimized purely for the algorithmic demands of AI.

  • The Operational Reality: Unlike traditional CPU-centric hyperscalers (AWS, Azure, GCP), neo-clouds run bare-metal, GPU-centric setups built for massive parallel processing and LLM training.

  • The Crypto Roots: Many of these players started as cryptocurrency mining operations. When the crypto landscape shifted, they were left with immense infrastructure capacity and expertise in managing dense, high-power hardware setups.

Now that you're familiar with what a neo-cloud is—here is the kicker...

I found one of the most recent Roundhill creations (ETF's) - created back in August - right around the time the market started tanking – precisely targeted this specific group. Top holdings: CoreWeave, etc.

$NCLD Roundhill Neocloud ETF - beaten unmercifully - starting at the end of the summer.  


But Why Oracle?

Follow-up with Gemini:  "Oracle surely isn't one of those - nanocloud. So where's the connection - as their stock continues to be hammered, and pointed to, by the talking heads?"

The Short Answer: While Oracle is traditionally a legacy enterprise software giant, financial analysts have explicitly relabeled Oracle as a "neocloud" stock (cnbc). 

The "talking heads" on Wall Street are hammering Oracle's stock (which has shed over 50% of its value from its peak) because Oracle is no longer behaving like a stable, asset-light software provider. Instead, it has taken on the hyper-leveraged, high-risk operational profile of a boutique AI startup.

Who else is on the Neocloud list? None-other than SpaceX. In fact, legendary short-seller Jim Chanos recently labeled SpaceX the "largest global neocloud". (finance.yahoo.com) 


And now you know why the talking heads - all of a sudden - got so quiet re: the AI selloff.

Seems a little too quiet; think we may not be out of the woods - as I posted this morning:

 

*And now you know why the talking heads suddenly went quiet on the “AI selloff.” They’re not calling it what it is—a neo-cloud shakeout that just happens to include the two names they can’t stop pointing at—because that version of the story is a lot less convenient for the hyperscalers. SpaceX sitting in the same bucket only makes the silence louder.


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