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Saturday, May 16, 2026

May OpEx Wrap-Up: AI Breaks Down What the Media Wouldn't

Yields higher? Yes. Oil bounced? Most definitely. Volatile week? Uh... No! The charts don't lie, so let's not waste any time cutting through the BS:

$VXX (short-term $VIX) was sold at the 20-day — capping another low-volume week. Closed only slightly higher (+0.8%) heading into a holiday-shortened stretch ahead of Memorial Day. This is prime time for bullish manipulation over the next two weeks. Watch and learn.

$VXX screenshot

That didn't stop Yahoo Finance from publishing this gem — 111 characters, 4 writers, still wrong: 👇

"Stock market today: Dow, S&P 500, Nasdaq sink as bond yields jump to cap volatile week ahead of Nvidia earnings" (finance.yahoo.com) 

I'd be embarrassed to publish such a long title. But apparently retail is supposed to remain laser-focused on NVIDIA earnings this week. I have a better plan — keep reading. 

To be honest: I noticed the tells Thursday — $VIX getting punished like the bears were being mocked: "just try it." "Looked like a gap fade... albeit a few days late" (quotes from Grok chat), and it arrived right on schedule. Easy read? Not really. I kind of expected stocks to hold up another day, but I had no skin in the game either way. Wait actually our bond fund did get scorched, but not completely torched.   

For the average retail investor, here's what matters: when the options chess board gets flipped near end-of-game, it creates real collateral damage across the broader tape — even if you never touch a single contract. Friday was a masterclass in that.

The One Guy Who Called It

I noticed Silver pulling back to its 50-day earlier that day. Not endorsing Silver at these levels — just highlighting the uncanny accuracy. Same mechanics, different asset. Textbook. 

Silver back-tests the 50 day sma #Bullish pic.twitter.com/rax67JeEbp

— Veteran Market Timer (@3Xtraders) May 15, 2026

Don't believe me? I asked AI to weigh in. Scroll to the P.S.

The "Better Plan..." As NVIDIA Earnings Comes Into Focus  

The 1st set of clues was buried in two tweet responses — 23 views total. Here it is:

  1. "FAANG stocks are probably still going higher, but there are better trades."
  2. "Here's a clue: If you're sharp, you'll figure it out yourself before the close."
The NYSE Composite chart tells the story. So far Megacap Tech (AKA MAG7) have done all the heavy (Since April Lows). Now the laggards get their turn — midcaps, $TRAN [highlighted last week], consumer cyclicals. Everything that's been simmering on the back burner while big tech took the headlines. Classic late-cycle rotation. 

2nd Clue - talking heads are already waiving their arms over next weeks earnings season - not NVIDIA - the other earnings season. Consumer Discretionary. That's right, while retail is salivating over $NVDA earnings looking for another AI rocket launch, retail earnings may entirely steal the show.   


P.S. — Claude's Take on Fridays Rug Pull 

The Prompt: "You're an expert at decoding options market mechanics. The tweet below claims Friday's selloff was orchestrated — dealers pinning strikes and shaking out call buyers on Monthly OpEx. Validate or debunk: did Options Expiration engineering drive Friday's -1.5% market drop, and is a reversal coming? Keep it to 1-2 paragraphs, plain English."

Claud's response:  With Monthly CME OpEx on the calendar, dealers who sold calls needed the market to close below key strikes — letting those contracts expire worthless. That's max pain. Coordinated selling torches the call buyers, while smart money that loaded puts pockets the difference. The -1.5% drop wasn't random — it landed exactly where it needed to hurt the most people.

The spillover is simple: dealers unwinding delta hedges into the close dump real shares, creating real selling across the tape. Retail sees panic. Institutions see a sale. The reversal call for next week isn't a prediction — it's a roadmap. Once the overhang clears and dealers re-hedge for June, the bid comes back.

— Claude (Anthropic) | May 16, 2026

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Thursday, May 14, 2026

Dow Jones Futures Test 50,000 - Dow Transports $TRAN Bullish

We all know the Dow is a dead index, but the sector rotation back into $TRAN (Dow theory) is still very much alive. 

 I recently recommended $TRAN - not as an alternative lifestyle choice, but as the next likely sector rotation, and while scanning my radar this morning, I immediately noticed it being bought - right at the 50 day sma. Consider this your final warning to get on board with this trade. You may also want to consider trading the higher risk/reward, fast money option - namely the 3X transports ($TPOR). If you haven't traded 3X leveraged funds read my disclaimer. Word to the Wise: Leveraged ETFs Are Not for the Casual Investor

Dow Transports $TRAN chart - First thing you'll notice is the recent flash-crash. Crickets from the ever-pumping US market bulls, who tried to sell us on a "broadening out economy". Looks more constructive here - building a base. Counter-trend rallies can be vicious, so sit back and enjoy the show. Note: You might want to check the earning calendar to see what is going to lead the comeback rally. Think airlines, trucking, railroads. Do your own due diligence.    

$TRAN Chart TradingView 

I also recently called out energy (last week was it?), but that trade seems to be languishing. You're on your own there. Check it again, once the rotation out of tech builds a head of steam. This is the same 'ol whac-a-mole rotation that has worked over the past several years. The only time it doesn't work, is in a full-on market crash, which I'm not expecting any time soon. 

Meanwhile the entirely highly speculative, solely AI driven, tech sector is screaming exhaustion, after only a 1 month rally. Even Bloomberg is comparing the latest moves in AI stocks - including Jim Cramer fav. $CSCO (up 20% over-night), to the blockchain party of 2025  - and we all remember how that turned out. Ever wonder why Crypto no longer leads the tech rally - now you know.  Highly speculative AI took it's place, and in the end the unwind will make the crypto crash look like Sunday stroll in the park.  

Today you see the same traders who drove these insane rallies, turning tail, and piling back into copper miners? No thanks. I'd rather hide out in US Treasuries, or trade the German $DAX. 

Yesterday what moved markets? China. Bloomberg was seen blatantly pushing Alibaba - attributing it to the Xi summit - even as it was blatantly obvious that trade had already run it's course in US markets.

 The charts don't lie, talking heads do. 

Trump historic Xi summit 
A certain US bank spoiler: Morgan Stanley immediately turned bullish on China (investing live) - helping to drive the 3X China bull (+6%) in yesterday's trade. Trigger the algos much? I'll trust the trend, and not trust the Chinese surveillance state.  School children seen welcoming (forced to) Donald Trump and co. with high energy enthusiasm I haven't seen since the North Vietnamese took to the the Ho Chi Minh Trail with guns at their backs. 😂 Children who refused to participate immediately had their organs auctioned. Chinese officials couldn't be reached for comment.  

Still want to chase Chinese hyperscalers? You're on your own. 

GL, AA 

P.S. Morgan Stanley was recently seen peddling US stocks in China (nai500.com), so you may want to take their recent upgrade on the $SPX, with a grain of rice.  

P.P.S. Re: The blockchain party that ended in 2025. The same speculative fast money that drove that trade to the moon and back is driving the AI trade, and now you know why Crypto no longer leads the NASDAQ (the only major index that seems to take part in the so-called “New Industrial Revolution"). Hey, I still have a bridge in Chicago to sell, if you're interested - CALL ME!


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Wednesday, May 13, 2026

$VIX Volatility Sold (Short) Market's Recover - Pure Manipulation In Broad Daylight

Yesterday’s 5% flash-crash out of South Korea wasn’t just another headline — it was the kind of black swan that exposes how fragile the AI narrative has become, when a social media post from a government official pulls the rug in the middle of the night - right at the 8000 target (7,999.67). Update on that situation in a moment... 

 South Korean Kospi - picture tells a thousand words. 

If you've been following along for the past few month, then you already know how the powers that be love to short the $VIX [They Can't Short the VIX. Here's How They Do It Anyway], and if you're bearish, (or you're name is Michael Burry) going into another Monthly Options Expiration (Friday), this is exactly what you're up against. 👇   

$VIXY (ProShares 2X leveraged VIX Short-Term Futures Bull) - Hammered at resistance.  This isn't just an ETF wrapper they're shorting. When BIG MONEY shorts the $VIXY ProShares is forced to sell front-month VIX futures to cover. VIX futures drop → spot VIX drops → SPX algos smell lower vol and go full risk-on. Exactly what we saw yesterday.  

Following the $VIXY since 2015

Getting back to what took place overnight in S. Korea; The spillover into the Nasdaq left one of the talking heads at Bloomberg in disbelief that a "Facebook post" (coming out of S. Korea)", could send US markets plummeting, but by afternoon the Nasdaq had lost nearly -2%. But several markets rallied as if nothing was out of the ordinary. Dow higher of course - has become the new normal on days like this. No sooner than the NASDAQ is crushed, algos pivot to the Dow.   

I fired off several Tweets alerting to the triple top on the $VIX (@ 19). Market's quicky recovered. Semis were bought at support. It was a good swing trade. 

$SPX closed in the green as if to say [fill in the blank]  At this point all I can do is point to the absurdity, swing trade it, and have a good laugh, but what really keeps me up at night is not the market manipulation in S. Korea, but the bubble market in the west. Even this morning Bloomberg continue to point to semis as the only game in town, perhaps parroting what they're seeing on the terminal.  

We're in uncharted territory, trading a highly bifurcated market, where compound gains outweigh valuation, or common sense. What could possibly go wrong? 

We haven't traded in a normal market environment since the 2000 bubble — not even close. Every crash is met with more liquidity injections ( they don't need to print the money - just push buttons) markets panic-bought to re-inflate the bubble. Wash, rinse, repeat — until it doesn't work anymore. But as long as the AI story is intact - bulls are happy.  

How much longer can this continue? Probably longer than you might think, and at least into Memorial Day, as volume continues to dry up, is my best guess.     

So long, 

AA

P.S. May 6th - story that received very little attention "Lawyers at M&A law firms among 30 charged by US in insider trading scheme" (including M&A lawyers from top firms) in a decade-long insider trading ring that front-ran nearly 30 major deals for tens of millions in profits. (reuters.com)  Buried the same day it was reported. They don't want to open that can of worms. 

P.P.S. Sharks are now running the table in the daylight. 




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Tuesday, May 12, 2026

Did the AI Bubble Just Pop? Black Swan Spotted Overnight

Semiconductors continued to spur the dead horse $SPX (UNCH) market on Monday — with the $SOX touching 12k pinning the investor stupidity meter in the red (fuckwit levels). Latest pump job: $NVTS +30%.

Then came the Black Swan of the year.  Most investors haven't even grasped the full implications... let alone heard the story reported accurately. 

 A top South Korean policymaker on May 12, 2026, proposed a "citizen dividend" paid to citizens funded by taxes on high AI company profits. This proposal, targeting AI-driven gains. Officials later tried to clarify it would apply to "excess tax revenue" rather than a specific new corporate tax", but judging by U.S. futures, the black swan has already flown the coop.

What's to keep the full socialist Mayor of New York City from doing the same thing at the New York Stock Exchange ... and maybe that's why they just built a second NYSE in Texas - another fact most investors are being kept in the dark about.

Another fact you've been left in the dark on is the fact that the semiconductor trade was propagated in Asia as a classic sequential pump job — exactly like we saw in crypto — with the Asian traders running the table.   

A couple blogs back I laid out the two obvious pins that could pop this AI party: Xi holding one, the Fed holding the other. 

"That puts the pin that may burst the AI bubble directly in Chairman Xi’s hand. And with the Middle East cutting off Chinese oil shipments (a blockade — an act of war), it’s a possible black swan. As of today, investors are none too concerned.

The Fed holds the other pin. Higher rates to fight inflation seem unlikely now that Trump's guy is in — but I guess it'll all come out in the Warsh. 😅" [link]

Now S. Korea just dropped a third. And who's to say the new full Socialist Mayor of NYC, doesn't follow suit? Why else would they be building a duplicate $NYSE in Texas?    

 I correctly identified the semiconductor trade as being propagated in Asia - calling it out as a ". Classic sequential pump job, just like we saw in the crypto space - in fact I think Asian traders are running the table." [link], 2 Days Later A S. Korean Black Swan Sends Market Futures Roiling, and now you see the fallout, and the bull contortionists arguing with the tape 

I actually had bullish trades to get to, before the black swan hit the tape - next time. 

Take Care, 

AA

P.S. Bubbles don’t burst in a single day. Even after the top, we’re going to see explosive bear-market rallies. Semis are still a relatively small sector — we’ve got much bigger fish to fry. 

P.P.S. Alternative title for today's blog: How The Guy Who Was Right One Time Became The Poster Child For Perma-Bearish Failure (19th time wrong in a row edition) 😂  

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Sunday, May 10, 2026

Aerospace Trade Finally Pays — Energy + Transports Rotation Loading (Mother’s Day Edition)

It’s funny to hear the folks on CNBC still talking chip valuations (+100X) in 2026 like it means something. Valuations are meaningless. Shorting the $VIX and driving markets ever higher through an endless series of sector rotations (on low vol) is the only game in town. If you’re sharp, you can document it in the charts nearly every single day.
Translation: Don’t trust these moves in the tech space — they’re being driven out of Asia/S. Korea. The same FOOLS who attempt to justify 100X (not a typo) valuations are the same idiots who pointed to stocks trading at “book value” in 2008 like valuation still meant something. Maybe it did at some point in the past… but not anymore.On a positive note: Last week our patience finally paid off in the aerospace sector.
[Before chart - screenshot] 

[After chart] Massive Gap Higher  $DFEN 3X aerospace up 11%. Tests the 50 day sma
I don’t want to see anyone left holding the bag on my watch, so I rang the register ["take it" link].

Speaking of being left holding the bag: Bloomberg continues to point to high oil prices even as Crude Oil enters a bear market. TDS in full view in broad daylight.  

We also took profits in the software space, and home builders [link]. CNBC continues to beat a dead horse after the rally of the past 6 weeks. Here they are over the weekend, still pumping the Software trade,  after it’s already run its course. 


$SKYY (Software/ Cloud ETF) Same Chart I showed you back in April. (was it?). 1. Already had a nice run. 2. Sitting right at resistance. 3. CNBC pump 05/08/2026. 

$SKYY Chart 

Last week’s trade was the culmination of the chip-sector spaghetti I laid out in the previous update: $QCOM → $INTC → $AMD —   The AI Spaghetti Incident Complete w/Side Salad (It’s a Whole Plate Full [link]) That may continue into May Options Expiration. 
Next Trade on the Menu: A pivot back into the Energy sector and the beaten-up Transports (trading at the 50-day SMA). In fact, I see several sector rotations coming up over the summer. Keep looking.

P.S. ProTip: When CNBC talking heads point to the BRAND NEW trading vehicle Roundhill’s latest Semi ETF $DRAM (up 95% over the past 6 weeks), with Friday’s rally juiced on a WSJ report that Intel has made a deal with Apple… your head should already be on a swivel.

P.P.S. My Spidey senses are already tingling. I feel like this is the market’s last hurrah before it gets perpetually dumped going into the mid-terms in November — since market crashes on Trump’s watch have become the new norm. It’s almost as if the market is gas-lighting the American voter with $5 gasoline, while the top 20% enjoy a “k-shaped” economy.


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Wednesday, May 6, 2026

The AI Spaghetti Incident Complete w/Side Salad (It’s a Whole Plate Full)

Don’t worry — we’re not throwing spaghetti at the wall to see what sticks.
We’ve got several obvious trades and setups to get to this morning. Most obvious being the AI rocket, which is just too hot to touch right now, so we’re going to unpack that one sequentially.1. Main Course Still Simmering  
(Same setup I pointed out last week. #WaitForIt)
$DJUSAS Aerospace updated chart (below) continues to consolidate — this is exactly where most retail gives up. There is a 3X leveraged aerospace bull ETF that may mirror this trade. (Check my warning on leveraged ETFs and do your own due diligence.)

$DJUSAS Aerospace DCS Chart 

2. Don't forget about $IBM - your grandfathers favorite hyperscaler is still on the table [link to Tweet] 3. The Latest Sector Rotation That's Way Too Hot To Handle - AI - first $QCOM → $INTC → Today $AMD (+15%) → CHASE IT, I (F***ING) DARE YOU!
The secret is in the sauce 
[From the P.S. in yesterday’s blog — Part III of the AI series] “The Latest Sector Rotation Nobody Is Talking About: Diversified Hyperscalers”
(Spoiler: It’s a made-up term. There is no diversification in the space. It’s actually a rotation in and out of specific segments of the AI buildout, and even among sub-categories within semiconductors.) The sales pitch requires some pretty fancy bull acrobatics — sorry for the word salad — taken directly from the Fast Money transcript: “ASML isn’t just an AI play — it’s lithography plus broader chip equipment exposure!” 
“Storage names like $STX give you diversified hyperscale exposure!”  Translation: Keep pumping semis. Just rotate into the ones that sound less frothy than $NVDA.It’s the same old CNBC-style whac-a-mole they run on the Mag7. Facebook wobbles? Pile into Apple. When the concentrated AI leader $ASML starts to roll over, suddenly storage and equipment names become a “safer, more diversified”. Classic sequential pump job, just like we saw in the crypto space - in fact I think Asian traders are running the table.  
I spotted the pivot out of $ASML in real time — a classic rotation designed to keep the sector narrative alive before the whole thing cracks. While everyone was still debating whether ASML was “falling behind,” the smart money had already started piling back into Western Digital, and Sandisk, half a dozen names... really.

 

4. The AI Trade That Takes The Cake $AIS (VistaShares Artificial Intelligence Supercycle ETF) - Rally turns 1 year old  [up how much?]  - I won't double dare you to chase it; I don't want to see any bloodshed. 😂 

$AIS Top 10 Holdings - $AMD, $INTC, $TSM [all covered yesterday: link] 
$AIS holdings screenshot 5/6/2026 

 
On a highly sarcastic note: AI Data Center high-flyer $ANET [also mentioned in yesterdays blog] plummeted 10% in after hours. Classic “beat but guided softer on margins” reaction (Source Grok/AI).     
Cramer & Friends (Morgan/Goldman): Last we heard they were all bearish or calling the chip rally “worrisome” and overbought in late April. Cramer’s the street panic-buying the shares they shorted/rented?  😂

P.S. I spotted something extraordinary this morning, as the Oil bulls were getting scorched for the 9th time. I missed the real time action, because I was blogging, but I don't usually chase... in pre-market. 


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