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Thursday, July 2, 2026

The Q2 Stealth Bear Raid No One’s Talking About (Until Now)

 Army ants crushed overnight 

The talking heads continue to push the AI fear porn, but they waited until they'd finished window dressing the quarter (practically to the hour) to unleash their latest bear raid. Tuesday's blog reads like a crystal ball: "$VIX still lurking in the danger zone with the strong possibility of a rebalance, ahead of Q2 earnings — stay nimble" [link].

The only thing that surprises me is how they are able to keep markets balanced on the head of a pin. 

The market magicians are getting more creative   

  • The two day rally in tech is cut short, while Financials broke out to new recent highs, but here's a new one: 
  • Commercial Services (micro-sector) - never heard of it? You're not alone. leads a stealth rally. I even turned to AI in order to get a handle on the action, but AI hallucinates a lot: "Why Traders Watch It". My response:  If "traders watched it", I would actually know all there is to know about it after trading for 15 years. I watch everything, and I've never even heard of it. Grok response: Fair point: It's a granular sub-industry group (under Industrials → Commercial & Professional Services → Commercial Services & Supplies in GICS).", whatever the fuck that means. GICS (dkdk)? I better start including the prompt "explain it to me like I'm an idiot" - next time.... 😂

Translation: It's just another sub sector to pump, when nobody is watching.
Today's trade? All eyes seems to be on the jobs number data - set to drop in 30 min. I suspect that could set up for a shortsqueeze in certain sectors, theta burn in others. 
Gentlemen start your barbeques! 


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Tuesday, June 30, 2026

Record Dow Highs Mask Another Dash for Trash (Honeywell Edition)


While the talking heads are crying wolf on AI valuation, and getting squeezed out of their semiconductor shorts again — $SOX ripped +6% off the lows in a midday reversal (Fast Money panic-buying semis, much?) — we were busy ringing the register after another rip-roaring, manic Monday. 


Sell the rip continues to be the winning strategy in a market that whipsaws into another slightly higher high, only to have the run pulled every other day. "Buy and hold is dead." 

Latest victim of the industrial sector pump $HON Honeywell: Downturned triangle pattern - From breakout to fake out, followed by a  mid-day flash crash. Trading back below 2024 levels (ouch).   

 $HON chart is a perfect example of why I'm only 60% invested, and every 2% rally gets a hair trigger. 

Final breakdown on Industrials: Google, $CAT, $UNH all held the spotlight, as Honeywell flash crashed. 

Best Performer $SOX Semiconductors - They tried to take $SOX lower, and learned not to mess with the bull Rallying +6% off the lows of the session — that's why they call themselves "Fast Money." Panic buying! 😂

I saw a not-so-nice story floating around the internet about price fixing in S. Korea, which seems to lack one important thing — a single shred of evidence: 

And yet another negative story about Apple margins (creative!):  


Sounds pretty dire right? Keep covering those shorts 😂

More Bull Market Highlights (sense the sarcasm) 

The Dash For Trash For Bottom Of the Barrel Losers Gains Steam  

Click on the above thread to find other pump n dump fav $RBLX Roblox. 
Short squeeze targets also included Comcast, as well as a short squeeze in heavily pummeled $MSTR.   

Meanwhile: the $VIX is still lurking in the danger zone with the strong possibility of a final rebalance, ahead of Q2 earnings ahead — stay nimble.

Good Luck, and have a happy and safe 4th of July 

AA

P.S. MSM is more focused on Lisa Cook than the absurdity actually unfolding in the tape.



P.P.S. Are the talking heads celebrating America's 250th anniversary? Not so much. 🐩💩 (final rant) 



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Saturday, June 27, 2026

Stealth Rallies NOT to Chase + The Sector Rotation You Can’t Afford To Miss

While a host of media personalities and financial gurus put on a bear parade across several financial networks last week — trying to convince you that the rally in semiconductors is over, parroting the same old 'capex is unsustainable' line they ran back in February — there was a fierce arcade game going on under the surface.

Latest Stealth Rallies We Don't Want To Chase 


Sectors I've been watching, and mostly making fun of: See my signature poodle shit avatar inserts on the tweet:  

If you follow the troll chatter on the X  platform, as closely as I do, then you may have seen the FURUs' (Fake Guru acronym)  pushing Home Builders, Airlines, and Healthcare/ Biotech.  

Perfect Example 👇   Vague weekly charts, bold claims, discord room (all the telltale signs of a con).    


One of the trades the spammers don't mention: Insurance Companies - lifted by healthcare (trading on Medicare increase fumes)  

$KIE (SPDR S&P Insurance ETF) Rising Tide Lifts All Ships, or at least makes them whipsaw in a range. Perhaps this the "broadening out" I keep hearing about!     

stockcharts.com

I watched CNBC Fast Money highlight some of the same whac-a-mole trades in micro-sectors, on Friday, and I thought, "well isn't that ironic...". Look if you're going to call yourselves "Fast Money", then stop blowing smoke about Transports lifting industrials in a broadening out economy, while simultaneously casting shade on the most explosive rally since gold miners - Semiconductors stocks.  

Of course I've been scoping the action in these whac-a-mole sector trades, but these are a distraction from reality. Tech drives this market like nothing else, and everything else is an unwanted distraction. 

The same "broadening out into Industrials that you see Tim Seymour (CNBC) pushing you can find being pushed by the troll army on twitter. 

FURU #2 

Truth is the Dow Jones is not breaking out to new highs. 

FURU #3 

At least he mentioned that industrials were "well off the HOD" 

FURU #4  to highlight the fuckery: Claim that AI FOMO driven Cat & Deere are just normal industrial plays. This is straight from the Seymour playbook!  

$XLI Chart - I had to draw this one up fresh, because I don't trade "industrials". I don't chase mirages either. Pattern looks like a range, with a slight overshoot. Blow-off top? You decide.   


Pro Tip: When you see the magicians all pointing to the same cup game, run in the other direction.  


Where's the Real Sector Rotation About to Take Place? Into The Only Sector That Actually Matters 

No, not Airlines - the QQQ's - lead by BIG TECH (aka "the hyperscalers").

Same $QQQ Every money manager on Wall Street wants to own, even when they tell you (the retail investor) that it's too expensive. CapEx worries! yeah right 😂

Landed Right on the 50 day SMA on Friday - triggering the Algos. Machine buying.


stockcharts.com


Reminder: The Other Bullish Setup We're Still Watching:

$XLC (State Street Communication Services Select Sector SPDR ETF). Takes out the secondary pullback target I pointed to in the blog dated June 9th. [link] "The chart speaks for itself. #1 Holding $META. #2 & #3 Holdings Google/Alphabet. You should be seeing a pattern: a rotation out of $AAPL, into one or more of the other Mag7 market drivers. Pro-tip: Sideways patterns like this are notorious for plenty of head-fakes, so don't bet the farm all at once. If it drops to 107 add.." And here we are! Watch for a Breakout in Sunday evening futures. Missed the boat? Chase it.

Updated Chart

Good Luck, and have a happy and safe 4th of July 

AA

P.S. Sunday Morning (edit). If you're nimble enough to get in and out of a trade quickly; watch for a possible continuation of the Friday short-covering rally we saw in the beaten up softwaremageddon space. $DJUSSW (Dow Jones Software Index)  Breakout target 6400. Stoploss 5967.50.  Possible upside targets 6700, 7150 (*200 day SMA). 


I'm not personally chasing this trade, but the chart helps shine a spotlight on the continuing bear market in the software (tech) space, as well as how explosive Friday short covering rallies can be.  

P.P.S Saving the best for last: *$KURU - Best Trade of The Year (covered last week) - I predict South Korean/Asian investors - NOT ARMY ANTS- are going to continue driving semis higher  - The Heart of the AI Trade - (future blog topic), even after what the bears tried to pull last week.

 

*Charts are Proprietary.      


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Wednesday, June 24, 2026

The AI Bubble Pop - The MSM Tried to Cover It Up

The Smoke and Mirrors MSM Really Outdid Themselves This Time 

As Tuesday's crash in Asian semiconductor stocks spilled over into global markets - forced selling spilled over into everything from Metals/Gold, to Mag7... even Tim Seymour pot stocks (-3%). 😂  

First The Setup: 

Breadth of Fresh Air? Not So Fast [link to Monday's blog]


You want to know who's stock market is really soaring? Pull up a NIKKEI, or S. Korea chart. 

The Final Warning: I sounded the final warning after watching a certain (unnamed) Bloomberg host, bring on some grease ball to suggest the retail investor should chase Taiwan Semiconductor. 

The Very Next Day (overnight actually):  

It took nearly 30 minutes to find any credible information as I woke up to Nasdaq futures -3%. 

First Series of Tweets: 

4:15AM. Second cup. Flipping between Bloomberg - covering oil like any other day at the office - and whatever Fox Business runs at that hour — turns out it's the weather. Apparently financial news doesn't start until banker's hours. CNN wasn't even on my radar — I save them for actual emergencies, and even then it's a coin flip.

Then Vonnie Quinn, mid-commercial break, drops it like a footnote: "...the KOSPI is down ten percent." Eight second clip. Back to commercials.

That's when I high-fived the wife. "We're net short semis, honey" 

This is what it's come to: Reporting straight up lies about a sell off in Big Tech, instead of the unwind in chip stocks in Asia. 

Semiconductor stocks hit a record-breaking 18.8% of the entire S&P 500's market capitalization, putting them right around your 19% figure. Source: AI Overview (Google)

MSM immediately pointed to the rout in "Big Tech", and the SpaceX unwind, as the cause of the overnight unwind. They must think/ know retail is stupid. 

The charts don't lie. $MAGS (mag7 ETF) retests the recent low, still trading in the same range. Call it a bearish H&S if you like, but what we saw yesterday was a retest of the bottom of the recent lows. The same sideways slop I warned you about in Monday's perfectly timed masterpiece. 
$MAGS Mag7 ETF

CNBC was reading from the same script Monday evening: Pointing to Monday's lousy action (the day after a 7% move on the $SOX (June *OPEX runoff) "a great day for markets", as a sign of the broadening out... also Pointing to $CAT (after it kissed the $1000 level). 

Caterpillar Chart

I couldn't help but mock...: 
I don't know what their motivation is to spin the market, but I suspect they know that once AI leadership comes to an end, and the American people wake up, it's game over/ lights out. 


Speaking of MSM coverups: Turns out every network was paid to push the experimental covid vaccine. 

P.S. Paid to lie…and crickets on recent FDA COVID vax revelations. Media complicity is an understatement. https://t.co/PJtlMr5pgE

 Grok/AI confirms (but when prompted to give a straight answer...): 

Yes, it's largely true.

The U.S. Department of Health and Human Services (HHS) ran a "We Can Do This" public education/PR campaign costing over $900 million in taxpayer funds (sometimes cited near $1 billion total for related efforts). This included paid advertising on major networks like ABC, CBS, NBC, Fox News, CNN, and MSNBC, plus print and digital outlets, to promote COVID-19 vaccines and boosters.
Those who claim to give it to you straight, and keeping the government in check are actually being paid under the table. One can only imagine what else they're hiding.
Is it any wonder the wholly unchecked Healthcare system is wrought with Fraud. Create the problem; offer the solution. 



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Monday, June 22, 2026

Breadth of Fresh Air? Not So Fast

You would think that, "Oil Lower, Stocks Higher" (last week's script) would thaw investor sentiment – yet the CNN sentiment index remains pinned in the red. Proving It’s not $4 gas bruising retail investor sentiment. Nor is it Trump's endless stream of Truth Social bombshells, and his "look at the stock market" gaslighting,  that's got everyone on edge. It's the rangebound market whipsawing in a tight range. Same lousy breadth. Now, add a hawkish Fed.

CNN Fear Freed Index linked

That lines up perfectly with long term sentiment indicator I highlighted 2 blogs ago [link] 
America's Lost Decade In Full View 

The only person who actually believes the stock market is soaring is Donald Trump, and that line is wearing thin, even with his base. The Dow touched 52k after about its 15th retest in 2 months, and came right back down. 👇 

You want to know who's stock market is really soaring? Pull up a NIKKEI, or S. Korea chart. 
What's lifting Tokyo? The same thing that juiced U.S. semis for a +7% Friday blast: a global AI FOMO frenzy. Al Jazeera called it three weeks ago and 3 week later the trend continues:  Japan’s stock market has hit an all-time high as a global buying frenzy driven by AI shows no signs of slowing down (aljazeera.com) 

Minus tech, U.S. stocks continue to trade in the same range they've been stuck in since April. Expect more sideways slop this week as the 4th of July approaches — prime time for market rigging, according to the yearly calendar.

NYSE: Still Trading a Range as investor sentiment sours, and the Fed is on hold (best case). 
$NYSE still struggling 


The Rotation Hustle, Confirmed By Morgan Stanley's Own Word Salad Chef

You want proof that this "market" is nothing but a managed spin cycle? Mike Wilson at Morgan Stanley just went on Bloomberg (again last week) and handed it to you on a silver platter.

His words, not mine: "We went from Gold and Silver stocks (miners), to metals (rare earth?), Energy, and back into D-RAM (semiconductors). These are all commodities."

Mike Wilson, CIO of Morgan Stanley, just described the commodity rotation loop that's been fleecing retail traders all year — and called it a thesis. He even threw in some "earnings breadth" acrobatics for dessert. Perma-bull word salad, extra croutons.

I summed the video up in a tweet ––with the help of Grok AI - translating Mike's word salad to broken English/ spoken in the Chinese dialect: 

And then it happened: Friday (again) June OPEX. Semiconductors ripped +7%. Mike Wilson was seen eating crow for breakfast, and based on this Monday morning's tape he's going back for seconds.

Semiconductors don't care about whatever valuation you try to pin on it. 

Meanwhile, $IYF — the Financials ETF, which includes Morgan Stanley — can't break out above the 2026 highs. Failed breakout. Downside acceleration. So much for those earnings he keeps alluding to.

stockscharts image


Cherry-picking another "best performing sector": Russell 2000 Small Caps, up 2% on Friday. Sounds great until you zoom out — since early May, $IWM is up a lousy $10. That's your broadening economy.

Let's Cut Through the Bull: Big Tech, helped by a hyperscaler rebrand. That's the extent of your bull market. Anyone who tries to fight it gets their face ripped off. But let's not fool ourselves by calling rotations a broadening.

Two Sectors Worth Watching: Biotech & China:

Biotech because of upcoming FOMO IPO's 

China ($FXI / $YINN), because it's the most beaten-down segment on the board right now. It's so bad it's good. The $FXI chart is showing green highlights that look like a V-bottom attempting to form. Short-term view — chart it yourself.

 
ThinkOrSwin Charts Follow @3Xtraders

The Elephant in the Room Nobody on CNBC Will Touch

Here's something I honestly can't recall seeing before in 15 years of watching this market: stocks trading at or near all-time highs — and sentiment stubbornly, persistently bearish.

That's not normal. Historically, ATH prices and Fear & Greed readings below 40 don't coexist for long. Something gives. Either sentiment catches up to price — or price catches down to sentiment.

With a hawkish Fed keeping rate cuts off the table, summer volume drying up, and the 4th of July window historically ripe for distribution, the smarter bet is that fast money uses any remaining FOMO pop to take profits and head for the Hamptons. That's not a crash call. It's just reading the calendar.

Sector rotations will continue. The algos don't take summers off. But don't confuse musical chairs for a bull market.

P.S. On the Big Tech hyperscaler rebrand I mentioned earlier: Be sure to check out the  HYPERSCALERS HUSTLE: The definitive CRASH COURSE  & AI: The Marketing Genius Wall Street Swallowed Whole
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