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Thursday, May 14, 2026

Dow Jones Futures Test 50,000 - Dow Transports $TRAN Bullish

We all know the Dow is a dead index, but the sector rotation back into $TRAN (Dow theory) is still very much alive. 

 I recently recommended $TRAN - not as an alternative lifestyle choice, but as the next likely sector rotation, and while scanning my radar this morning, I immediately noticed it being bought - right at the 50 day sma. Consider this your final warning to get on board with this trade. You may also want to consider trading the higher risk/reward, fast money option - namely the 3X transports ($TPOR). If you haven't traded 3X leveraged funds read my disclaimer. Word to the Wise: Leveraged ETFs Are Not for the Casual Investor

Dow Transports $TRAN chart - First thing you'll notice is the recent flash-crash. Crickets from the ever-pumping US market bulls, who tried to sell us on a "broadening out economy". Looks more constructive here - building a base. Counter-trend rallies can be vicious, so sit back and enjoy the show. Note: You might want to check the earning calendar to see what is going to lead the comeback rally. Think airlines, trucking, railroads. Do your own due diligence.    

$TRAN Chart TradingView 

I also recently called out energy (last week was it?), but that trade seems to be languishing. You're on your own there. Check it again, once the rotation out of tech builds a head of steam. This is the same 'ol whac-a-mole rotation that has worked over the past several years. The only time it doesn't work, is in a full-on market crash, which I'm not expecting any time soon. 

Meanwhile the entirely highly speculative, solely AI driven, tech sector is screaming exhaustion, after only a 1 month rally. Even Bloomberg is comparing the latest moves in AI stocks - including Jim Cramer fav. $CSCO (up 20% over-night), to the blockchain party of 2025  - and we all remember how that turned out. Ever wonder why Crypto no longer leads the tech rally - now you know.  Highly speculative AI took it's place, and in the end the unwind will make the crypto crash look like Sunday stroll in the park.  

Today you see the same traders who drove these insane rallies, turning tail, and piling back into copper miners? No thanks. I'd rather hide out in US Treasuries, or trade the German $DAX. 

Yesterday what moved markets? China. Bloomberg was seen blatantly pushing Alibaba - attributing it to the Xi summit - even as it was blatantly obvious that trade had already run it's course in US markets.

 The charts don't lie, talking heads do. 

Trump historic Xi summit 
A certain US bank spoiler: Morgan Stanley immediately turned bullish on China (investing live) - helping to drive the 3X China bull (+6%) in yesterday's trade. Trigger the algos much? I'll trust the trend, and not trust the Chinese surveillance state.  School children seen welcoming (forced to) Donald Trump and co. with high energy enthusiasm I haven't seen since the North Vietnamese took to the the Ho Chi Minh Trail with guns at their backs. 😂 Children who refused to participate immediately had their organs auctioned. Chinese officials couldn't be reached for comment.  

Still want to chase Chinese hyperscalers? You're on your own. 

GL, AA 

P.S. Morgan Stanley was recently seen peddling US stocks in China (nai500.com), so you may want to take their recent upgrade on the $SPX, with a grain of rice.  

P.P.S. Re: The blockchain party that ended in 2025. The same speculative fast money that drove that trade to the moon and back is driving the AI trade, and now you know why Crypto no longer leads the NASDAQ (the only major index that seems to take part in the so-called “New Industrial Revolution"). Hey, I still have a bridge in Chicago to sell, if you're interested - CALL ME!


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