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Monday, September 28, 2026

Monday Downside Surprise - Brand New Chart

I added another trade to the public hub on Friday - no paywall - absolutely free: Spoiler: it's the 3X Treasury Bull $TMF -  most contrarian play on Wall Street right now (I know)! Link to the public charts area @ stockcharts.com 

I already alerted to the chart on X on Friday, and if you were paying attention you've already started building a position. We already own Treasuries, in our 401k - not the $TMF. If you're new to leveraged ETF trading - you should read my cautionary disclaimer Word to the Wise: Leveraged ETFs Are Not for the Casual Investor

Heads-up: I'm taking a road trip later in the week - as soon as Micron reports - gas prices just dropped 50 cents over the weekend (my gain): I'll be trading from the road, but I probably won't be updating charts. If the charts I just added to the public hub start blowing up [link], you're on your own. Know how to set a stop loss. 

Quick update on futures - seeing another Monday morning rug pull this morning (the usual pivot - energy up/ tech stocks down) - look here (treasury yields) not there:

Tim Seymour (CNBC Fast Money) semiconductor stocks getting whacked(-3%). Gold (-3%, and gold miners - even worse (-5%) their other favorite sector getting absolutely schlonged.  Yields still blamed... yeah right! 🤣 

 PS. Last week's market update is still doing most the heavy lifting so be sure to skim the previous update (s): Yields Soar, Stocks & Bonds Selloff — So What? So What? So Let’s Trade






Thursday, September 24, 2026

Yields Soar, Stocks & Bonds Selloff — So What?

So What? So Let’s Trade.

Bond Yields Soar, Contagion Spreads (Stocks & Bonds Selloff)

The trend continues. Market futures lower. Bond yields are upsetting markets, and this time it’s real. Panic selling in bonds is spreading to the interconnected complex: banks, real estate, consumer cyclicals, utilities, even REITs. 

The 10-year just tagged levels we haven’t seen since 2007. The 30-year is at a 2004 high. Last time the long end lived in this neighborhood, the same rate-sensitive names were the canary in the coalmine. Housing. Banks. Real estate. We all know the next chapter: the 2008 Armageddon trade.

That’s the hook. It’s not the trade — not today. 2008 didn’t show up as a VIX spike on day one either. It showed up as a slow bleed in the interconnected stuff first. March 2020 is the comparison everyone reaches for, and it’s the wrong one. That tape was a dash for cash — they sold Treasuries with everything else — and then the Fed cut, printed, and backstopped the system. That’s when the panic buying of tech and crypto (before the sentiment change) started. This time is different, but the canary is still singing. 

Same sector rotation I flagged after Yom Kippur: the wrong sectors are leading, BUT WITH THE ADDED CAVEAT -it's the rate-sensitive stuff that's unwinding the fastest.

Buy Yom Kippur — But The Wrong Sectors Are Leading

IF (big if) this keeps going, contagion can spread. As of today it hasn’t. Whole segments of the market are practically untouched — consolidating, not crashing — which is why the $VIX isn't skyrocketing. Don’t trade the headline. Trade the rotation.

The Sector Trade Most Traders Are About To Miss 


That's right: After a change of heart, and against my better judgment I’m offering one chart — the trade I tweeted just ahead of yesterday’s closing bell. 


$PNQI (Nasdaq internet). One chart. One vote.  

The live chart is on the revived 3Xtraders public list - vote it up daily:
https://stockcharts.com/public/1839526

Read the annotations carefully. Do your own due diligence. Know how to set a stoploss. When the chart is working trade it. When is stops working... stop trading.  To quote REO Speedwagon: you gotta roll with the changes. 



Vote the list. Daily. If it gets voted up, I’ll add more charts as earnings season kicks off. If there’s no interest in sector rotation, I’ll delete the list. Creating a detailed chart, and updating it (daily) is a lot of work. I’ve got better things to do if nobody is interested in sector trading 


For now: don’t catch the falling knives in the markets I already named — banks, real estate, homebuilders, utilities, REITs. Set stops. Keep trading whatever is actually working.


P.S.
Look at the other chart I added. Closely. Crude Oil Priced in Bitcoin (ETF) $IBIT

I believe oil deals are being done in bitcoin and gold. The Oil Priced in Bitcoin chart is not subtle. The targets are hitting. The only other explanation is coincidence.

There are no coincidences on Wall Street.