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Friday, February 27, 2026

NVIDIA Earnings Fail To Impress Mixed Markets

Like it or not: US BIG TECH REMAINS IN THE PENALTY BOX 

That message could not have been made more perfectly clear than it was when the bottom dropped out on NVIDIA, at yesterday's opening bell. 

$NVDA had already rallied off the Feb. low - up nearly +20%, It continued to rally on Wed. Even popped another 3% in after hours trading. Earnings were blowout, as expected, yet it wasn't until yesterday's open where the trap door sprung open. 

This was one of those rare instances, where whatever you thought we were seeing in the after hours market didn't count, and what followed was more sideways slop, on mixed markets. 

Some sectors ended higher, some lower, but as long as money continues to hide in Gold, and other alt trades, while money continues to flee the US for every other part of the world; Europe, Japan, S. Korea; I'm happy to watch from the sideline, and after 4 months of this shit, I'm getting really good at it. 

We covered the $VIX action extensively a couple days ago [link], and then I see CNBC Fast Money - last night's show - doing a deep dive on the subject. I'm not accusing them of plagiarism, I think everyone is looking at the $VIX under a microscope. They even went so far as to bring on guest - all the way from Japan - to try to tell investors that a relatively new indicator called, "the $VIXEQ (Cboe S&P 500 Constituent Volatility Index) - sold as a single stock indicator - is comparatively "not so high". More smoke and mirrors. Take a look for yourself, and decide if volatility is low. Spoiler, that particular fear gauge has been trending higher since Christmas Eve - the same date where they sold tech in 2025. Is this program selling? I don't know.   

Yoshiko Yamaguchi CFA Screenshot

INVESTMENT CAPITAL CONTINUES TO FLEE THE US 

The bull parade (perma-bulls) on the TV continues as money managers from BofA to [blank] continue to insist that the idea that money is fleeing the US, is "hogwash", yet nobody can deny that Europe and Asia have out-performed US markets by some 40%. Momentum is an aphrodisiac, to investors.   
Add to this the fear that AI is about to take your cushy Wall Street Analyst job, and you have the perfect motive to go on TV and lie your ass off.    

Sure, the globalists, and the socialists continue to prefer ROW, but that's not the only reason the $SPX remains trapped in purgatory - trading at the same levels it was back in Oct. '25.  The NASDAQ (what most young people are heavily invested in) is actually trading below the October highs. I trade in and out of this tech heavy sector, because this is the only sector that matters. Sure you could trade a snapback rally in beaten up software cloud names, or even chase the stealth bull market in semis, but you risk falling through the next trap door. $SOX -3% - after eking out a slightly new high? No thanks! The weather in Chicago is forecast to be spring like, and I plan to take full advantage of it. 

As for NVIDIA, last I checked it was being bought at the 50 day SMA. That's the level to watch, but after yesterdays action, I think there's a great possibility that we're about to see another shakeout. 

Take Care, AA 



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Wednesday, February 25, 2026

Where AI Software-mageddon Meets SPX Sideways Slop: $VIX 19 - Should You Trust It?

The $VIX continues to keep traders on edge, and the buying algos at bay:  Monday was another bloody session, with the selling spilling over into several sectors. Took 2-3 days to pinpoint the catalyst, and the story just gets interestiner, and interestinger—FOCUS:  
  • Software-mageddon? 
  • Trump tariff chaos? 
  • Private Credit - yeah thanks Jamie Dimon for the Tuesday Morning Quarterback!    
  • Monday's Plot Twist: A futuristic fable written by a couple of shady-looking macro-fund managers in a Manhattan high-rise. Citrini Research’s “2028 Global Intelligence Crisis” memo — framed as pure "scenario, not prediction" — hit X like a viral contagion Sunday night and suddenly everyone was piling on the AI doomsday machine psyop theater [Citriani's AI doom report scares investors]. 


Pretty much no trades are working including the hysterically hyped "Broadening Out" trade.    

BOOM: Who appears on my screen again this morning, but perma-clown Julian Emanuel trying to sell us on the idea that the $VIX is overbought, and that options traders are contrarians (which they certainly are), but one thing I've learned over the years it to NEVER ARGUE WITH THE TAPE.   
Granted: The $VIX Isn't Too ConvincingWith NVIDIA Earnings After The Bell I wouldn't be hanging my hat on that peg, after the trend we've seen - tech stocks being taken down on one AI fear, or another, over the past few months. 
The market should be afraid, very afraid - it's not (and that's a red flag) 
 Buy the dip, sell the rip continues to provide some comic relief, and good gains for those who can stomach the volatility, but after 3 weeks of this sideways slop is getting to feel like Groundhog Day the movie  
Feels like any other bear trap: $VIX poking it's head just above 20, for just long enough to suck in a few  more retail bears, but something doesn't feel right, and nobody can deny that there is some panic in the software, and private credit markets, and that panic could still spill over into other sectors - yet I still give that a low probability.  
Caution advised 

P.S. I said no trade is working, but the buy the dip sell the rip trade has actually has been working really well, if you are able to crack the code on it. Never give up! 
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