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Sunday, February 8, 2026

Dow Smashes 50,000 – No One Cares - Trump Predicts Dow 100,000

Boy, it was tough sledding out there last week—on again, off again, on again—  Friday's monster rally managed to put me back in the black, and therein lies the reason none of us can get too excited about this Dow 50k anomaly.  

Who cares? None, ok 1 like (prolly a bot) ðŸ™„ 

Damn Right "Something Feels Off" 

  • Negative Headlines Dominate  
  • Tech/ AI/ Crypto Crashing   
  • Small Caps, Consumer Staples, Healthcare, Energy leading the charge

Looking Past the Rotation & Breadth Mirage 16% of S&P stocks trading at 52-week highs amid new index records? Huge red flag! Hindenburg Omen Red     

Ominous 'Hindenburg Omen' spotted in U.S. stock market. It could signal more pain ahead for investors (morningstar.com)

The Hindenburg Omen highlights the broken state of the market. Not "broadening", not "bifurcated", broken—entirely. 

And the MSM Spinning Harder Than Ever: 

1. Barron's Roundtable Saturday: some perma-bullish fool started the show off by pointing to Dow 50k; trying to downplay Mag7 stocks, while pointing to "the massive rally we've seen in $MMM" (3 F-ing M), while ignoring the fact that it was MAG7 darling $NVDA NVIDIA, that did most the heavy lifting on Friday +7%.    

#1 Gainer on the Dow $NVDA NVIDIA +7.872% 

Friday's read that blasts a hole in the broadening out narrative

2. Fox News' Maria Bartiromo hosts Scott Bessant  

Bartiromo tees up Trump's latest: "Dow to 100,000 before term's end—guaranteed boom!"
Bessent jumps in: "Absolutely, Maria—100k is conservative. Look at the momentum: Russell 2000 small caps are leading this market, and from my 40 years experience in this market this is proof that the economy is in fantastic shape."
  • Trump predicts Dow 100k. Yeah, more gaslighting.
  • Bessent doubles down on Russell leading as "proof" of a roaring economy. Laughable.
  • I have a bridge in Chicago to sell if anybody's interested—call me!
Holes everywhere: Russell's pop is pure Fed-cut hopes FOMO (88% odds of March 25bp cut, up sharply on Trump's "fix the Fed" threats), not Main Street magic. 
Grok/ AI confirms: "Small caps are debt-loaded and rate-sensitive—cheap money bets". 

$INDU (Dow Jones Industrial Average) Nice clean view shows the Dow trading in the same range it's been trading in, since the April Fools '25 shake-out. 
It still has room to run, the chart is accurate, and self explanatory. 

Dow breaks out above 50k 

$ARKK (ARK Innovation) ETF, the fund I highlighted last week, was up 6% on Friday, and looks like it could continue to breakout as soon as Monday morning. 

Final Warning 

As I alluded to earlier, the $VIX was manipulated (hammered down in order to trap the bears on Friday), yet it continues to trade in the danger zone. Stay nimble out there. 

 P.S. Super Bowl LX today: Seahawks (NFC) vs. Patriots (AFC). If the old Super Bowl Indicator holds (NFC Seahawks win = stocks up for the year), maybe we're headed to Trump's 100k after all. If AFC takes it... well, enjoy the picnic while it lasts. Either way, charts over crystal balls (and over football). BTW I'm betting on the underdog; always the contrarian. 


Tuesday, February 3, 2026

Latest Stealth Rally Lifts the Dow... But Transports Are Still Trapped in 2021

I called it a boomer trap yesterday, because real traders don't pay much attention to the Dow. 

Led by the - not very sexy - Dow Transports  

Of course there's a 3X $TRAN play that could spice things up, but I don't recommend chasing this clown car. And I promise I'm not going to waste much time reviewing this lousy trade; BUT please keep reading, because there's a BIG PAY-OFF at the end...  

Southwest Airlines ($LUV) +4.46% yesterday - What's not to Luv? Lots... thanks, no thanks! I'm not even going to bother to update the chart. See it for yourself   ðŸ‘‡

$LUV From my Junk Folder 
United Parcel Service ($UPS) 🙄 Didn't I tell you we were about to see the annual dash for trash trade gain steam? Yes, just yesterday...! [link] 

Not From My Junk Folder But Should Be... 

Old Dominion Freight Line ($ODFL) The least sexy of all; I warned you this would be boring. Landstar Systems (LSTR), Ryder (R), both 6% higher. No more please, I promise!