Page menu

Wednesday, October 21, 2026

The AI Selloff, SpaceX, Coreweave, & Oracle All Have This Common

  Lately, every other market move I uncover seems to read like a crime scene.

You'd have to be living under a rock to not know the "AI selloff" is a thing—yet the talking heads keep pointing at CoreWeave... Well, after a little digging, I found that the bear market they're actually fanning the flames on is the sell-off in "neo-cloud." Think of these as the nano-scalers' answer to compute power that the hyperscalers can't provide fast enough. In short: It's power on demand, and it's hurting Microsoft's profit margin.

To get a breakdown, I ran a query through Gemini on the etymology and history of the term. Shifting past the corporate jargon, here is the raw reality of what a "neo-cloud" actually is:

  • The Paradigm Shift: It's the structural split from Cloud 1.0 (general-purpose IT hosting) into Cloud 2.0—highly specialized, physical hardware acceleration optimized purely for the algorithmic demands of AI.

  • The Operational Reality: Unlike traditional CPU-centric hyperscalers (AWS, Azure, GCP), neo-clouds run bare-metal, GPU-centric setups built for massive parallel processing and LLM training.

  • The Crypto Roots: Many of these players started as cryptocurrency mining operations. When the crypto landscape shifted, they were left with immense infrastructure capacity and expertise in managing dense, high-power hardware setups.

Now that you're familiar with what a neo-cloud is—here is the kicker...

I found one of the most recent Roundhill creations (ETF's) - created back in August - right around the time the market started tanking – precisely targeted this specific group. Top holdings: CoreWeave, etc.

$NCLD Roundhill Neocloud ETF - beaten unmercifully - starting at the end of the summer.  


But Why Oracle?

Follow-up with Gemini:  "Oracle surely isn't one of those - nanocloud. So where's the connection - as their stock continues to be hammered, and pointed to, by the talking heads?"

The Short Answer: While Oracle is traditionally a legacy enterprise software giant, financial analysts have explicitly relabeled Oracle as a "neocloud" stock (cnbc). 

The "talking heads" on Wall Street are hammering Oracle's stock (which has shed over 50% of its value from its peak) because Oracle is no longer behaving like a stable, asset-light software provider. Instead, it has taken on the hyper-leveraged, high-risk operational profile of a boutique AI startup.


Who else is on the Neocloud list, but none-other than SpaceX. In fact, legendary short-seller Jim Chanos recently labeled SpaceX the "largest global neocloud". (finance.yahoo.com) 


And now you know why the talking heads - all of a sudden - got so quiet re: the AI selloff.

Seems a little too quiet; think we may not be out of the woods - as I posted this morning:

 

*And now you know why the talking heads suddenly went quiet on the “AI selloff.” They’re not calling it what it is—a neo-cloud shakeout that just happens to include the two names they can’t stop pointing at—because that version of the story is a lot less convenient for the hyperscalers. SpaceX sitting in the same bucket only makes the silence louder.


Sunday, October 18, 2026

Current Market Conditions: The Good, The Bad, and the Ugly

imdb.com

Had some major technical difficulties last week. Ended up pulling the public charts, and deleting a blog update – long story. To top it all off, I caught a cold. Hey, I would love to continue providing public charts, but with 135 tabs open, and the $VIX spiking above 20... I  have enough on my plate...

Time to Regroup:

The Good 

Public Charts Update - It was fun while it lasted: 

I made $100 on the bond rally. Watching the talking heads try to explain the violent reversal in yields - PRICELESS! 

🤣  

$TMV (3X 20 yr Treasury Yields Bull ETF) lost nearly 15% in a week! 


 

Energy - their favorite hiding place – closed at  new all time highs. 

Financials ended higher on the week. 🤯

Here's how they pulled that off:

They piled into $JPM, & $BRK (2 most heavily weighted financials companies in the S&P 500).  Same balancing act... different sector. 

The Bad


3 min. Trailer (imdb.com)

Let's call this "AI Sell-off", what it really is: The multi-sector Oct. rug pull just ahead of Q4 window dressing season. Yep, it's another bear trap; involving all the usual suspects - except this time the barchart boiler room crew is reading from the same script as CNBC.

 Technically, yes certain AI stocks sold off last week, but here's the short list of sectors which are on sale. 


  • Semis & Software same rotation (out) we saw in June/July - deja vu. 
  • Financials (selling off since August)   
  • Healthcare - tested the recent lows at Friday's close.
  • Aerospace/ Defense
  • Transports/Airlines    
  • Small Caps (the risk off sector) - even lower yields couldn't stop Friday's bear raid. 

Reminder: This was the same crew that took down the $KOSPI - earlier in the year [July 19th Chinese Reddit Traders Team Up To Help Create The Perfect Storm]



The Ugly 

Big Tech - mega caps (NVIDIA included) is being used to balance the entire S&P, so MAGS continues to preform like a ballast that's used to keep the ship from capsizing - only down 2 days in a row, and only 3 days off the all time highs.  

The Wakeup Call Everyone Ignored 

 $VIX kissed 18.01 level Wed. Morning - I called the  breakout in real time – more than once. 

They obviously kept their powder dry, waiting until Monthly Options Expiration Friday to drive the $VIX into a breakout (above 22).Crickets from the MSM, on the suspicions timing... 

With the $VIX still trading near 20 (closed at 19.99 on Friday) we are pretty far from, "out of the woods", but I'm already encouraging folks to keep buying the dips. In fact if you can raise your 401k contribution to 100% - this is the place to do it. 

Most investors are sitting on the sideline - $8t sitting in money markets. That's a contrarian indicator.   


P.S. 


2. The Fidelity Board - Friday's Close: Small Cap Value Highlighted 



I would be very selective about which mutual funds you're putting money to work in.  $FBGRX, & $FFOTX, (same screen shot) lost over 2.25% on Friday, because they're tech heavy. Do your own due diligence. Talk to your financial advisor, if you don't have to time... that's what they're there for.