Why It Looks Different This Time: Lack of Leadership, Weak Consumer

Nobody likes an, "I told you so", but didn't I warn you that the $VIX was screaming "risk off"?  Thursday's blog reads like a crystal ball: "$VIX still lurking in the danger zone with the strong possibility of a rebalance, ahead of Q2 earnings — stay nimble" [link]  Glad my gains from earlier in the week were on a hair trigger.  

Quick Recap: Rug Pulled on AI Stocks As In Another Game of Whac-a-mole (the game that never gets old).   

Meanwhile the $SPX continues to be balanced on the head of a pin. "The market magicians are getting more creative": This mornings blog exposes the fuckery. 👇 https://t.co/LLhUgtW2WT https://t.co/mQcZcWODOu

— Veteran Market Timer (@3Xtraders) July 2, 2026

The Chart Pattern That Led To Thursday Bloodbath in Big Tech Stocks 

I know the bears would like to trash this market, going into the 250th anniversary - 4th of July holiday - but the Nasdaq just broke out of the bearish pattern. $NDX pic.twitter.com/6EPHnthFmL

— Veteran Market Timer (@3Xtraders) July 2, 2026

The attempted breakout above the upper trend line (seen in purple) was immediately followed by a nasty  (bearish) reversal (an obvious bear raid): 

This I can tell you: If this was Joe Biden's market, they would have rallied into the holiday - their usual MO during the previous administration - more on why it's different this time in a moment.  

The Icing On The Cake:  Immediately after the closing bell CNBC Joe Kernen's one on one interview with Donald Trump. 

Yesterday was a bloodbath on Wall Street - in big tech & Ai - at the heart of the bull market, where Trump is heavily invested. Trump points to traders hiding the Dow Jones. CNBC didn't even push back. https://t.co/O0GY28Lapw#GasLight #GasLighting #Investors #Voters #DeepFake…

— Veteran Market Timer (@3Xtraders) July 3, 2026

The balancing Act Going On Beneath The Surface 

The Weak Consumer  

$BPDISC (S&P Consumer Discretionary) dipped as oil prices spiked going into April, and private credit markets hit a rough patch, but now that crude oil prices have come down consumer spending continues to flatline, like the S&P 500, on a good day. 

 

 Thursday (July 3rd) CNBC allows Trump a full half hour to claim ignorance on his $1.4bn gain in stocks, and crypto investments, while at the same time claiming what a good businessman he is, and further trying to justify his massive win by claiming "everybody is making tons of money in the stock market",  pointing to gains in Dow Stocks. The stuff nobody trades.  

News Flash: 

Tech stocks just had one of their worst weeks in a year. Here's how AI momentum went off the rails. morningstar.com 

$SPX remains balanced on the head of a pin, for the 9th consecutive week. The Stealth Bear Raid No One’s Talking About (Until Now) https://t.co/tOrbwuatLd pic.twitter.com/WfdwAnM5jB

— Veteran Market Timer (@3Xtraders) July 5, 2026

The Lack of Leadership is Glaring 

 $SPX with a $NYFANG overlay (big tech - mostly mag7 names) - More Proof That Only Big Tech Can Drag The Broader Market Higher. 

AI led into the end of the quarter. No other sector is seen making new all-time highs. That's not a bull market. It's a carefully balanced - on the head of a pin - market. 

Looks like the $SPX is on track to break it's 2 day win streak 🐩💩 $SPY "" pic.twitter.com/5xSnJ6cO7C

— Veteran Market Timer (@3Xtraders) July 1, 2026

This Monday morning we're dealing with the same market mechanics as last week.

$VIX Volatility continues to run high. 

$SPX sideways slop continues - still struggling below the 7500 level. 

Earnings season is shaping up to be another excuse to take profits — Protip: sell the news.

The "broadening out" story needs actual breadth to show up in the tape, not more TV interviews.

Take Care, 

AA 

P.S. Peak Optics at a major market top - Trump Rings The Opening Bell From The Oval Office (cnbc) 

The Q2 Stealth Bear Raid No One’s Talking About (Until Now)

 Army ants crushed overnight 

S. Korean chip maker SK Hynix is hammered down (-14%) pic.twitter.com/6hFygDD2Qe

— Veteran Market Timer (@3Xtraders) July 2, 2026

The talking heads continue to push the AI fear porn, but they waited until they'd finished window dressing the quarter (practically to the hour) to unleash their latest bear raid. Tuesday's blog reads like a crystal ball: "$VIX still lurking in the danger zone with the strong possibility of a rebalance, ahead of Q2 earnings — stay nimble" [link].

The only thing that surprises me is how they are able to keep markets balanced on the head of a pin. 

The market magicians are getting more creative   

• The two day rally in tech is cut short, while Financials broke out to new recent highs, but here's a new one: 
• Commercial Services (micro-sector) - never heard of it? You're not alone. leads a stealth rally. I even turned to AI in order to get a handle on the action, but AI hallucinates a lot: "Why Traders Watch It". My response:  If "traders watched it", I would actually know all there is to know about it after trading for 15 years. I watch everything, and I've never even heard of it. Grok response: Fair point: It's a granular sub-industry group (under Industrials → Commercial & Professional Services → Commercial Services & Supplies in GICS).", whatever the fuck that means. GICS (dkdk)? I better start including the prompt "explain it to me like I'm an idiot" - next time.... 😂

Translation: It's just another sub sector to pump, when nobody is watching.
Today's trade? All eyes seems to be on the jobs number data - set to drop in 30 min. I suspect that could set up for a shortsqueeze in certain sectors, theta burn in others. 
Gentlemen start your barbeques!