Page menu

Tuesday, March 24, 2026

"The Iranians want to make a deal and so do we", but what is the $VIX telling us?

One day after triple witching options expiration, 10 minutes before Monday's opening bell Trump drops a press release - Trump postpones airstrikes for 5 days. Oil drops 10%. Iran calls it out as a financial PsyOp. So, what else is new? 

If you've followed me for any length of time then you know every press release is suspect:

  • Financial meltdowns, 
  • Twin towers, terrorists threats 
  • Bat viruses 
  • Russian invasions 
  • Trade tariffs 
  • Mideast Oil Wars 

The list is seemingly endless, but Wall Street hedge funds thrive on constant volatility, and there are 3 (count 'em 3) cable news networks always ready to lend a helping hand, not to mention the 1000's of internet bots crawling the interwebs - designed to sway public opinion/human emotion.           

Quick rundown of the current fear porn script:

  • Crypto Unwind - the canary in the coalmine
  • Bubble talk: When has Wall Street ever sold, fearing a bubble? Please   
  • Jamie Dimon Cockroaches     
  • Cap Ex Spending concerns
  • AI takeover everything from Wall Street brokerages to Trucking
  • Iran bombing 2.0 - aka Operation Epic Fury = Higher Oil Prices = the r word (recession) - the same card that was played last April. Funny, you don't hear much about tariffs anymore.  
It's a tangled web, but they had all summer, and fall (2025) to think up every excuse in the book to sell stocks. Once the windows were dressed, at the end of the year, "bubble" was the word on the street. The money they raised selling crypto was put to work in the short everything trade, and some sectors still left searching for a bottom. 

The Last Cue Card: Trump threatens to bomb Iran back into the stone age - taking out their power grid -  then 10 min. before the opening bell he does a 180 claiming "Iran wants to make a deal, and so do we". The Iranians deny it - calling it a financial PsyOp being used to manipulate markets. Wall Street talking heads seem willing to play along, and it looks like we may be off to the races soon.  

Larry Fink CEO Blackrock Capitulates Begging Investors Not to Pull More Cash  
That's Code for please stop asking for redemptions; the rotten banking sector is  already in correction territory. Last I checked $DJUSFN (Dow Financials) were trading around the 1040 level - 10% off the January highs. 

CNBC was quick to report small caps trading in correction territory, but apparently the entire financial sector crashing 10% in 3 months slipped under their radar. 

Weakness Continued into Monday's Session - My Take 


CNBC Fast Money traders claimed, "the $VIX was bought at the 50 day SMA", but after checking 2 different charting software views, I can confirm that is an absolute lie. I wish they would kick Tim Seymour off the show, because I get tired of taking out the trash. 

$VIX - DIDN'T TEST THE 50 DAY MOVING AVERAGE. It came close; close counts in horseshoes & hand grenades – but not real chart targets. Note: I DID NOT intend to draw a perfect pair of boobs on the chart below - I swear it was an accident, or was it subliminal?! 🤣 

$VIX DCS Daily Candlestick Chart

Fast money also seems to be in a hurry to sell Microsoft to new lows; make of that what you will. I kind of like the Software names here. Heck, I Even Like Europe - now that it's whipsawed back into the bottom of the broadening triangle pattern, we've been watching for the past year, the German $DAX looks interesting at these levels. 

Fink says don't time markets, and if you didn't see the top coming back in Jan. then you kind of fit into the "don't try to time markets category". If you find yourself panicking after 7 months of selling, then you are a contrarian indicator. 

P.S. I'd be adding to the 401k on any weakness. I added on Friday, and almost got back to even on yesterday's bounce. I think there's still plenty of time to add on the dips. Good luck, AA 



 


Posted by at No comments:

Saturday, March 21, 2026

The Selective Sell-Off Nobody's Talking About (The Chart They Don't Want You to See)

Surveying the damage after Friday's washout—only slightly lower lows on several indices and mutual funds. I tweeted out a bunch of broken sector charts just to pass the time. lol Are markets broken? Have you checked your 401k lately? I sure as hell have—watching ours like a hawk and trading it like an HFT hedge fund manager.

Sentiment & Technicals:   

Seeing a lot of fear porn chatter, but still the $VIX doesn't scream "PANIC". Weird. The $SPY got slammed right at the 200-day out of the gate, along with $NVDA—so the stage was set early. Small caps got crushed, gold miners too, and other junk nobody cares about (looking at you, Super Micro Computer -26%).   

CNBC made a big deal about small caps hitting "corrective territory"—fancy term for a 10% pullback nobody cares about. The $SML (S&P 600) is back below 2021 levels if you're hunting for a real sob story.

Look, if you're really bearish, sell your favorite Warren Buffett pick: $AAPL Apple ðŸ˜…

Daily volume on the $SPX was huge—higher than we saw even during the April 2025 crash. But if the $VIX can't break out, this looks more like end-of-quarter rebalancing on a massive triple-witch OPEX than anything fundamental. Iran? Sure. High oil prices don't stop money from getting put to work in the spring. Time to put money to work.

NVIDIA + Apple = ~13% of the S&P (and the Mag7 close to 40%). What do you think comes next? Spoiler: 

$AAPL Apple landed precisely on the 200 day SMA 

The eagle has landed 

$NYA (NYSE Composite Index) The chart they don't want you to see.   

What about all those software names they were trying to steer you away from just a few weeks ago. Distracted by Iran much? Get on it! 

P. S. Bitcoin also no longer sells off with tech, and not because it behaves like digital gold. It trades opposite gold, more like speculative tech. Think Coinbase - treading water at the 50 day. Nobody notices, but yours truly. 


Posted by at No comments:
Subscribe to: Comments (Atom)