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Tuesday, November 10, 2026

Fed’s Waller Acts As The Fly In The Ointment — Throws Cold Water On The Launching Pad

We had a really nice rally going yesterday, and a multiday win streak in gold, but then it happened: 

Just as New York traders were waking up, Bloomberg TV splashed a blood-red BREAKING NEWS banner across the screen—running live tape straight from London: 

FEDS WALLER STATES HALF POINT HIKE MAY BE NECESSARY IN DEC... - sound familiar? It should. This is the same story they used to tank markets in August.

  • Stock futures immediately turned south. 
  • $USD rallied.
  • Gold got flushed... 

 One might ask: What Purpose Does This Serve - Fed Members Endlessly Jawboning?

    • Managing Financial Conditions Without Action: The Fed uses verbal intervention as a zero-cost policy tool. By dropping hawkish hints before key inflation data, they cool down financial conditions and douse equity/gold rallies without having to actually hike rates. Translation: We really don't want to hike in Dec., so we're going to signal a whopper hike, instead.

    • Preventing Asset Bubbles in Overheated Markets: BTW did you see that blistering tech rally, yesterday?. Central bankers dread runaway markets..

    • Creating Institutional Entry Points: Just as retail starts chasing the tech snapback and precious metals bid, a Fed speaker steps up to throw cold water on the tape—giving institutional desks another volatility dip to absorb inventory (buy lower).



Wall Street is smart enough to see right through the Fed's jawboning, but the old saying, "don't fight the Fed," still holds true. Waller just laid out the roadmap—threatening a half-point hike in December if markets keep overheating. Between last week's BIGGER THAN EXPECTED employment report and the next FOMC meeting just four weeks away, the central bank is throwing cold water. 

Look at London— FTSE flirting with record highs before getting a rude awakening from a hawkish Fed guest speaker. The Riddler could NOT have choreographed this any better! 

Back at home (in the U.S.), I'd expect some healthy consolidation after yesterday's blistering run in semiconductors. I never expected the gold rally to last, and gold miners look downright bubbly—with many still clinging near all-time highs. Keep your eyes on Jr. Gold Miners after they tested their 50-day SMA yesterday.



I'm only looking for a pullback ahead of the holiday setup or a potential Santa rally, depending on how long the digestion takes. We'll be watching the FOMC meeting - fo sho 👀

Sounds simple enough - seldom is. 

Anyway, GL.




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Monday, November 9, 2026

Market Remains In A Holding Pattern - With NVIDIA Sitting On The Launch Pad



I'm sure you've all heard the talking heads parroting the same story, since it broke last night - right around the time US futures opened - no surprise (timing-wise) looking at this from my usual, highly cynical/conspiratorial view. 

The first detailed report Oct. 29th, published by the New York Times-  was an exclusive report revealing that U.S. intelligence agencies viewed the Nvidia CEO as the target of a Chinese espionage plot. 

I was kind of blown away that the story was mostly ignored by the msm, yet it immediately lit up my radar.  



Fast forward to 11/8/2026 - Last Night (nearly 2 weeks later): 
  • Jensen Huang's formal apology - email. I'll spare you the details. 
  • Nvidia's board of directors launches an independent investigation. 
  • A federal investigation is also being launched (allegedly) into NVIDIA. 


The whole thing looks like another classic media narrative distraction, while smart money (Including our HFIT [high frequency insider trading] Congress) loads up on NVIDIA shares - at a huge discount (26% off the all-time highs - as of Friday's close). 

The $VIX being carefully balanced back above the 20 level, to keep sellers sidelined. 

Fits the calendar/ cycle - wait for everyone to get short, and then drive markets on light holiday volume - short covering. You know the drill. 

The other stock they love to hate? 

Tesla ($TSLA): The narrative-driven (Dems vowing to go after Elon..) selloff in Tesla creates another classic sentiment disconnect where short-term political noise masks underlying manufacturing execution - not to mention its valuation once you factor in SpaceX (merger talk). 

The chart tells the story of how Wall Street absolutely planned to trap Tesla bulls, once the election results were revealed. 


I'm not trading Tesla, don't plan to trade it. If you like it, watch for a shakeout, below 335, followed by a bullish reversal. If I'm wrong, and it takes out the previous low - around $300 - that level becomes your pivot. 

I remain bullish, ahead of the holidays, and not just big tech (the only sector that matters), and we're planning to add another maximum 401k contribution in 2 weeks. I'm sure by the time, once the Thanksgiving turkey is pardoned, Congress will be holding hands, and singing kumbaya. 


P.S. Fun fact: Department of Justice (DOJ) & Commerce Department: U.S. authorities have been investigating Singapore-based Megaspeed since 2024 over suspicions that the firm illegally funneled advanced Nvidia AI chips to China. The Commerce Department has officially handed this investigation over to the Justice Department. 

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