How Operation Epic Fury Turned Into Operation Epic Market Failure

The broader market continues to form cracks, just as we saw ahead of Passover/Easter, this same time last year. Only this time: terrifying tariff terror, has been swapped for Iran war jitters.
War Coverage and Oil Inflation Fear Dominate The News But Financials Lead Declines 

The chorus of disapproval for private credit gets louder as Morgan Stanley fund is the latest to cap withdrawals (marketwatch.com)  

That's the same Morgan Stanley who spent months trying to convince everyone that we were seeing a healthy "broadening out" of the economy, when nothing could be further from the truth. Crickets from incessant market pumping Morgan Analyst Mike Wilson. 

Who else has gone radio silent? The long-time zombie bank enthusiasts at CNBC's Fast Money.

 
Who was pounding the bear drum on US zombie banks, all the way back in December? Yours truly: Santa Rally Cancelled: Merry Festivus to All  Dec. 24th '25 [link]      

$DJUSFN - 7 slightly higher all time highs vanish, as US financials have given back all their gains for the year ('26). Note the light volume we saw going into 2025 window dressing season, followed by the heavy selling volume we've seen all throughout '26.  

While headlines scream oil and war, financials quietly bled out all of this year's gains—classic smoke and mirrors. 

The Rest of World Bubble I Warned You About Also Popping

$VFWSX All-World ex-US Index - In free fall. It looked like it might crawl back above the stop-hunt line and stage a rally on Friday, but that wasn't in the cards. If global markets continue to crash, then the 200 day moving average comes into focus. 

$VFWSW All World ex-US

February OPEX Friday: The Final Tim Seymour Pump Was The Kiss Of Death 

$IDVO Amplify International Enhanced Dividend Income  

Note: Capital Wealth Planning LLC (CWP) and Seymour Asset Management LLC serve as investment sub-advisers to the Fund.L

Let’s be clear — Tim Seymour openly uses his CNBC platform to pump $IDVO, the very fund where his own firms (Capital Wealth Planning and Seymour Asset Management) serve as sub-advisers. Conflict of interest, anyone?

The Major indices including the Nasdaq are testing the 200 day SMA, and there's a good chance we see the rug pulled below that level in Sunday evening futures... - in order to take out some stops - but as long as the $VIX doesn't start breaking out again, I think we can expect to see the end of the quarter window dressed, unless Morgan Stanley wants more redemptions, as private credit loan losses spiral.   

Mag 7 stocks were sold at the 200 day SMA on Friday, and if the selling continues that's going to pull the $SPX lower. 

Operation Epic Fury Has Turned into Operation Epic Failure 

• US/ Israeli bombing campaign slows 
• Iranian regime as defiant as ever
• Iran supreme leader replaced by the far more radical son...   
• Russian sanctions weakened
• US Oil reserve depleted 

Trump claims Iran "wants to make a deal", but watch for Trump to turn tail, and chicken out again. #TACO    

Last year's ridiculous selloff was followed by one of the biggest short squeezes in Nasdaq history, so you better keep your guard up. $VIX in the upper 20s equates to 1000 point (2%) moves on the Dow, and the $VIX at these levels works in both directions. 

Take Care, AA  

Yesterday's Bullish Reversal: Sustainable or Not?

With the $VIX still trading in the mid 20's it's still too soon to say if yesterday's rally is sustainable, but there's a very good chance it is: 

• The $VIX breakout to 35.3 was quickly faded
• Algos were triggered to buy the Nasdaq at the 200 day SMA
• Oil plummets, after an insane 2 day flash surge. Did I warn you not to play with fire? 
• Social media is no longer dominated by prolonged Iran war fear porn = a sentiment shift

Let's Get Right to The Charts 

Dow Jones Trump 47 (as in 47,000) support - as called out over the weekend  [link]  

Trump 47 Chart

$COMPQ Nasdaq Composite bounces out of the hole - still trading in a sideways range 

NASDAQ DCS Chart 

$JMGMX (JP Morgan Mid Cap Growth) trading in a downturned wedge, or triangle, aka a pennant pattern. You decide...  

$JMGMX chart 

Looking At The Calendar 

1. Don't Forget March is a Window Dressing Month 

2. The Next FOMC Meeting In Focus 1 Week From Today - kicks off on St. Patrick's day -watch for floor traders to be knocking back some Jameson shots, as they watch their puts evaporate. 

3. March Options Expiration on the 20th 

4. Passover Start April Fools Day with a Full Moon - that could be interesting 😅 

Expect volatility to remain high for the next several days. Add on the dips, roll with the punches. 

Need accurate $VIX targets? I got 'em. $100 - Price is non-negotiable