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Wednesday, February 25, 2026

Where AI Software-mageddon Meets SPX Sideways Slop: $VIX 19 - Should You Trust It?

The $VIX continues to keep traders on edge, and the buying algos at bay:  Monday was another bloody session, with the selling spilling over into several sectors. Took 2-3 days to pinpoint the catalyst, and the story just gets interestiner, and interestinger—FOCUS:  
  • Software-mageddon? 
  • Trump tariff chaos? 
  • Private Credit - yeah thanks Jamie Dimon for the Tuesday Morning Quarterback!    
  • Monday's Plot Twist: A futuristic fable written by a couple of shady-looking macro-fund managers in a Manhattan high-rise. Citrini Research’s “2028 Global Intelligence Crisis” memo — framed as pure "scenario, not prediction" — hit X like a viral contagion Sunday night and suddenly everyone was piling on the AI doomsday machine psyop theater [Citriani's AI doom report scares investors]. 


Pretty much no trades are working including the hysterically hyped "Broadening Out" trade.    

BOOM: Who appears on my screen again this morning, but perma-clown Julian Emanuel trying to sell us on the idea that the $VIX is overbought, and that options traders are contrarians (which they certainly are), but one thing I've learned over the years it to NEVER ARGUE THE TAPE.   
Granted: The $VIX Isn't Too ConvincingWith NVIDIA Earnings After The Bell I wouldn't be hanging my hat on that peg, after the trend we've seen - tech stocks being taken down on one AI fear, or another, over the past few months. 
The market should be afraid, very afraid - it's not (and that's a red flag) 
 Buy the dip, sell the rip continues to provide some comic relief, and good gains for those who can stomach the volatility, but after 3 weeks of this sideways slop is getting to feel like Groundhog Day the movie  
Feels like any other bear trap: $VIX poking it's head just above 20, for just long enough to suck in a few  more retail bears, but something doesn't feel right, and nobody can deny that there is some panic in the software, and private credit markets, and that panic could still spill over into other sectors - yet I still give that a low probability.  
Caution advised 

P.S. I said no trade is working, but the buy the dip trade actually has been working really well. If you've been able to crack the code on it. Never give up! 
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Thursday, February 19, 2026

Adding More Nails to the Broadening Out Economy Coffin

Quick Update: Markets remain pretty lame (slow) especially for $VIX 20, but hey, at least we've got impending US-Iran fireworks to distract from the real show: Bloomberg is seen flipping bearish again as Trump preps for "war", pushing $100 Crude Oil (fear porn). Look, I get it: the Chinese get their oil from Iran, and that upsets the China-lovin' crew at Bloomberg.
Meanwhile, I'd like to blow some more holes in the "broadening out" psyop being pushed by the dishonest mainstream media, they've been pushing for, going on 3 months now. The broadening out narrative is nothing new; it's a retread recovery narrative, as we covered back in Dec. '25 [link to post].
Trump bears – including most of Europe – continue to sell (short) US markets. Highlighting yesterday's pinned tweet, absolute gold, if I do say so myself. See the $SPY chart annotations. 





































Apparently "Pivot From the US" was misinterpreted as "Short US tech", and I personally can't wait to see how this plan turns out! Yes, I'm still net long, even after the rally of the past 3 days. 
I don't watch much CNBC anymore, but it's been slow, and I get bored watching a weak tape... Yesterday I happened to catch the midday crew encouraging AI panicans to pile into boring consumer staples like Walmart, Costco, etc. Of course, this is a continuation of the "broadening out" lie we've been fed over the past month or two, and here's why they chose
 $WMT:
  • Consumer Staple - household name - even the rich are forced to shop this turd thanks to double-digit inflation during the Biden years
  • Megacap - moves markets like a Mag7 name
  • Dow component #24 (Dow 50k should ring a bell)
Nipped that in the bud: 


The Playbook Hasn't Changed
In fact, Christopher Verrone just came on Bloomberg, called out the defensive trade—hiding in cyclicals  - specifically mentioned utilities—as a "knife's edge": Translation: The sector rotation may have reached an end.
Take Care, AA
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