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Friday, June 12, 2026

SpaceX Aerospace Pop, Software, Semis Drop - Rinse & Repeat

Rocket Lab and these four stocks are joining the Nasdaq 100, with SpaceX waiting in the wings (marketwatch) 

 Today is the big day: SpaceX is ready for take off, and the enthusiasm is already carrying over into the aerospace category.

Pump, dump, rinse, repeat. That's been the whole story for the past few years, and the word on the street is today's SpaceX's IPO looks like another coat of paint on the same megillah. In a word: Overpriced

Last time I covered Aerospace I was telling folks to ring the register. "Aerospace Trade Finally Pays.. [Link]" Today the chart is still trying to break out again, and I think we can see a little throw-over out of the triangle pattern it's trading in — but watch it like a hawk, because we could see a reversal once price throws over the top (depending on which type of triangle this is). See the annotations — new highs followed by a reversal, don't say I didn't warn you. New highs are catnip to the algos.    

$DJUSAS (Dow Jones Aerospace) - The chart is conflicted: I can't say with any certainty, whether it's a bearish upturned wedge, or bullish continuation pattern?  SpaceX - Aerospace Breakout or Fake Out? I think the latter.      

Should you chase it? I think SpaceX pops above $200... go for it, but too much sugar may be setting up for a Monday morning hangover. Watch for updates @3xtraders: I'll be charting it live on a 1 min. chart.

Combine SpaceX with the momentum carrying over in the US and Europe after yesterday's Trump statement — a short-covering rally on news that Iran and the US are ready to sign a deal, perhaps at the G7 next week. True or not.

Trump's latest flip-flop was enough to drive the Nasdaq +2.5% and crude back below $90. What that actually does is give Trump more time to stall. The Iranians are stalling too, and I expect the stalemate to continue indefinitely.

The $COMPQ Nasdaq Composite chart speaks volumes. 


 Go back and look at the chart: Trump's pivot from warmonger to peacenik came precisely at the 50 day SMA. Remember that bear trap I warned you about?  

What else is fueling the rally besides short covering? Cash. The cash raises pulling the rug on the semiconductor space. Mike Wilson (Morgan Stanley) basically just said the quiet part out loud. Watch the videoclip for yourself:

I was under the impression money managers were raising cash ahead of the 3 biggest IPOs to ever hit the tape — and they are — but there's something else going on here:

  1. In hindsight, they drove Semis, including the entire South Korean market, into a parabolic flash surge to do a cash raise. Earnings were the fuel, but the moves were accentuated. We've covered this many times — now you're watching the trash get taken to the curb.
  2. AI led the charge too, alongside Software. Same narrative, same basket, same exit — when AI stocks got bid as "the future," software rode shotgun on the same story, and now they're getting dumped together.

I saw CNBC finally mention the 8-day losing streak over yesterday's lunch hour, but otherwise the MSM seems asleep at the switch. Software-mageddon continues for 8 days straight.

The Poster Child For The Latest White Knuckle Moment For AI $SMCI Super Micro ▼

Taking Out The AI Trash

What this all tells me is that AI is just another sector in the rotation. Pump, dump, rinse, and repeat. The never ending list of stocks that don't perform just keeps growing. Now space IPOs? I'll have to sleep on that.  

P.S. I recently covered the entire rotation starting with China (when we were told China was being driven like a meme trade, because they were leading the manufacturing recovery after covid.
And guess who upgraded China near the top? Morgan. 
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Tuesday, June 9, 2026

While They're Setting Another Bear Trap — Here's the Bullish Rotation They Don't Want You to See

I don't normally lead with the MSM — but when CNBC and Bloomberg Surveillance are reading from the exact same script, word for word, you have to ask: who's actually feeding the teleprompters? It's summer. Time to roast some weenies.
Savita Subramanian (frequent CNBC guest)

This isn't the first time we've seen Jim Cramer and the Big Banks join arms in an attempt to cut a rally short. Less than two months ago [link], Goldman and Cramer simultaneously sounded the warning on semiconductor stocks — ahead of a monster rally that drove $SOX clear into June, well above where they told people to ring the bell. How many people lost Mad Money money on that call?

Right now Jim Cramer and Bank of America's   Savita Subramanian (a frequent guest on CNBC)   both, simultaneously, are sounding the warning to "take profits". My question is:

In yet another tweet, Cramer warns that "key pillars of the bull market are beginning to crumble" — the very same day they sell the news on Mag7 stock Apple. My take:

The term "pillars," of course, refers to the short list of market movers they just pumped and dumped.  Apple (sold on yesterday's news). Broadcom $AVGO — another Cramer favorite with a direct connection to Apple. No coincidence. 

Breaking: Bloomberg Surveillance just read their opener from the same piece of paper — even name-dropping BofA's very own Savita Subramanian. You can't make this shit up.

Time to Flip the Script

Assume for a minute that another bear trap is being laid, right on schedule, ahead of another summer break. This is prime time for manipulation — and the next FOMC announcement is right around the corner. Kevin Warsh raising rates? The MSM seems to think so. I give that zero chance. I've already put my money where my mouth is, buying up Treasuries. 

If you like that angle, you're going to like what's next even more.

Laying Out the Next Real Sector Rotation

While Cramer was busy pointing at semiconductors, one sector has been quietly consolidating for nearly nine months — flying completely under the radar. That sector is Communication Services 

Enter $XLC (State Street Communication Services Select Sector SPDR ETF). The chart speaks for itself. #1 Holding $META. #2 & #3 Holdings Google/Alphabet. You should be seeing a pattern: a rotation out of $AAPL, into one or more of the other Mag7 market drivers. Pro-tips: Sideways patterns like this are notorious for plenty of head-fakes, so don't bet the farm all at once. If it drops to 107 add. I'm not going to babysit this position; you're on your own. 

While the teleprompter producers were writing the next script, I was scoping out $META - quietly consolidating in a range.     

I'll let you chart the rest of the top holdings yourself [yahoo finance link]

#4 holding: $TTWO Take Two - number 4 holding. Clear buy signal. 
 


Same time of year, same script, same bear bait, all the usual suspects - will it be different this time? Spoiler, NO. The only thing that changes is the sector/stocks they're trying to shake you out of. 

 Last Fall they all claimed that the AI bubble was busting. The time before they claimed that Trump tariffs were going to cause a recession. This time... "take profits"?

 Laughable.

P.S. MSM believability just hit a historic low (8%). This is what that looks like in real time — CNBC reported that Trump got booed at the Knicks game. No doubt the talking heads would've loved a seat in that section. Or maybe they're just living vicariously through the 30% of loud mouthed New Yorkers doing the booing. 

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