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Wednesday, December 24, 2025

Santa Rally Cancelled: Merry Festivus to All

Everyone Getting Tired Of Hearing About Metals Mania Yet? It has certainly served as a good distraction from the state of the real market. Gold chopping fresh all-time highs above $4,500, silver cracking $70, Platinum breaking out by another 10%, as if to say "hold my beer". 

Nailed the copper trade for some extra holiday cash—before and after shot: 

Yesterday's 4.3% Q3 GDP blowout only poured gasoline on the fire. Markets are now dead-certain Donald Trump will take full control of the Federal Reserve and slash rates aggressively in an already overheating economy. Did someone spike the eggnog? 

Top Story Yesterday  

  • Gold Rises to Record High on Rate-Cut Bets and Venezuela Tensions (bloomberg.com)
  • By this morning downplaying to somewhat stale: "Gold Glistens Into Holiday Season" (bloomberg.com) ⸺no longer center stage 

Of course, while the crowd chases shiny squirrels, the tape looks eerily like last year's year-end window dressing—poised for the same post-Christmas rug pull.

Santa Rally? Consider it officially cancelled. Here's why 

We're already trading near new highs. It's already been priced in. 

The VIX: Trading at 2024 levels - not digging the complacency. 

If the Nasdaq was back testing support as it was in 2024, we'd be setting up for a Santa Rally, into the new year, instead it's trading in the same position as last year.   

The Russell 2000 is pointing to another risk off situation 



Enter The Poster Child for the Entire Regional Banking System 
$OZK (Formerly Bank of the Ozarks) No matter who's president, one thing it certain OZK can be counted on to chase new all time highs like one of Santa's elves on a 3 day crack binge. lol  The bottom of the range, once the pattern resolves? Not sure, but don't stop now, you're up over $5 since Trump's first term, excluding the massive inflation... 



Poster Child for the TOO BIG to fail Zombie Banking System  
$C (Citigroup - formerly Citi bank) The ultimate OG zombie bank—still clawing back from the 2008 meltdown (dilution nightmare, government bailout, reverse split shame). Shares surged ~60% in 2025 on restructuring hype and rate-cut tailwinds, finally crossing tangible book value and hitting levels not seen since pre-crisis. Impressive turnaround? You decide 

Speaking of Zombie Banks: Here's CEO for BofA trying to tell us how great things are 

Bank of America’s Moynihan Says AI Gaining Economic Benefits

https://www.pymnts.com/
Airing of Grievances: Festivus EditionMerry Festivus, everyone! On this holiday for the rest of us, it's time for the traditional Airing of Grievances:
  • I got a lot of problems with your endless deregulation repricing ad nauseam  
  • Window dressing that goes up in flames right after long term capital gains are locked in
  • Regional banking still in a shambles after kicking the can down the road again? Yeah, you thought the crisis was over? Think Again. I find your belief system... fascinating. 
Funny story, I forgot I had purchased 10 $PLTR call options (Dec. Expiry), and didn't  discover until yesterday - I was sitting on 1000 shares! 😅       
Stay skeptical out there. The shiny distractions are fun, but the cracks underneath are priceless. 
Trade safe into the New Year.

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