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Tuesday, January 14, 2025

More Killer Swing Trading Opportinities in Crypto - NASDAQ alert - $VIX Alert, and a Lame Stream Media PsyOp

 As most of you probably already know; I called out the Ethereum trade on Saturday, and pinned an alert to that call, to the top of  my X platform timeline - btw - that's the place you should be looking for real time alerts. 

Speaking of Alerts:

1. On Jan. 3rd I alerted that the $VIX chart, was signalling a continued sell-off 

The $VIX works when the manipulators want it to work.

 2. Nasdaq Alert

I alerted that the 50 day moving average on the Nasdaq would probably be taken out. That finally happened yesterday, Monday. 

3. Crypto Alert (from Saturday's blog)

 https://x.com/3Xtraders/status/1878100636056572303

Below is the update I added to to the above pinned Tweet, on Saturday

The setup on Ethereum may actually be a little different than the chart I blogged. Could see another little shakeout come Monday. $ETH
 
Image

 If you traded the leveraged 2X bear Ethereum ETF, you were up 14% at the lows of the session. 

That's what I'm talking about! 

From there, we've seen a rebound off my 2950 target, all the way back to the 3250 level, overnight. 

At this point I feel that the trade is too hot to touch, and is already getting ahead of itself.

The Broader Market  

The Broader Market - if there is such a thing - continues to trade like dog feces, as everybody, and his brother, continues to pile into the Energy trade, and since everybody seems to be wrong all the time, I'll take the opposite side of that trade.    

We all remember what happened the last time Bloomberg was seen alerting to the $90 level on Brent Crude. 

Well now they want investors to get excited about the $80 level! 

Bloomberg always seems to be wrong, and always pushing an agenda/ PsyOp. 

Here they are trying to shake out the weak hands again just yesterday: 


CNBC does the same thing, by flashing the red tickers on the major indices, and pushing negative news, something we rarely saw before Trump won.   

 Exactly what I've been predicting for years, and you can expect this trend to continue over the next 4 years...

$SPX 5500 is a certainty, it's just a matter of time.   

I don't trade the $SPX 


 take care,

AA












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Saturday, January 11, 2025

Crypto Stocks Poised to Rally Here's Why

We've seen some tremendous moves in Crypto markets over the past few weeks, and I've been fortunate enough to be on the right side of that trade, for most of that time. 

There was one point where I got trapped in my short position - just ahead of the Christmas break, but by the time the trade unwound I found myself almost back to even. From there, I managed to stay on the right side of the trade, first catching a powerful snap-back rally in Ethereum, and then swing trading it back down to a near triple bottom.

I could have gone long again, at that point, but after a couple big moves like the ones we just saw, you typically see a prolonged period of sideways consolidation, and this is exactly what we saw on Thursday & Friday.

 It looks like Ethereum may be poised to breakout, as soon as first thing Monday morning, but money remains tied up in bullish Energy trades.

$ETH Ethereum  Could go as high as $3550 - in the near term


Energy

 The Crypto AI & Energy Trades go hand in hand, and this is why you see money flowing from one sector into a next...

How Trump Administration’s Trade Policies Could Transform Energy Markets and Global M&A Deals

conpowermag.com

And Low & Behold an Energy Deal is announced

 Constellation Energy to buy Calpine in blockbuster $16.4 billion US power deal


Search the internet for News and you will hear the, "Power demand for AI" narrative, being spun.  

If this all seems orchestrated, that's because it is! Investment money has to be put to work somewhere, and today that somewhere is Energy, AI, & Crypto, and I expect this trend to continue for as long as the Tech sector continues to be shunned. Of course AI investment overlaps most everything including Energy, but this is the running catalyst for the entire market, until something else takes its place. 

But at the end of the day Friday's trade was just another excuse to squeeze the short sellers, and this is the real reason for 25% Friday rallies in anything. 

$CEG Constellation Energy  - up another 25%

 

 

 

But Wait There's More!  

 

Want to Cash In on the AI Boom in 2025? Check Out This Electrifying ETF - fool.com

 Its top five holdings are:

  • NextEra Energy (NEE -4.64%): 11.7% of the fund.
  • Southern Company: 6.8%.
  • Duke Energy: 6.5%.
  • Constellation Energy (CEG 25.16%): 5.8%.
  • Sempra Energy (4.3%).

 

Nuclear stocks jump in the new year as bullish analysts see the AI boom powering the sector 

marketsinsider.com 

And there you have it!

It used to be that markets would correct one sector at a time, but in an attempt to keep markets from correcting at all, they have found a way to drive one sector, to the next.... while selling volatility, and pumping and dumping certain sub sectors (in order to raise money for the next trade). It's really something to behold, and something I'm still trying to wrap my head around.  

Getting back to Crypto  

Trading Crypto is highly volatile, which I love - if you'd rather trade something boring then I actually recommend the Dow, for several reasons. 1. It has led the declines over the past several weeks. 2. It's not heavily shorted. 3. Doesn't usually move more than 1%. 

 Target? I would expect to see some profit taking around the 44,500 level, before seeing another breakout to new all time highs. 

 Take Care, AA

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Monday, January 6, 2025

Dead Internet Dead Money/ Market

 Dead Internet Dead Money/ Market 

 You've probably heard the term dead money, which means a trade has fallen out of favor, or is no longer working. A good example would be energy stocks, or Oil which has continued to trade in the same range for several years, regardless of what Bloomberg Asia falsely reported last night    

You could also point to pot stocks as dead money, because they haven't performed well since their IPO several years ago, but I usually think of dead money as a stock, or sector that worked at some point, but no longer does... 

Dead Internet Theory

According to Wikapedia

The dead Internet theory is an online conspiracy theory that asserts, due to a coordinated and intentional effort, the Internet now consists mainly of bot activity and automatically generated content manipulated by algorithmic curation to control the population and minimize organic human activity. Wikipedia

 Of course now-a-days when we hear the term conspiracy theory being thrown around, that usually means that the powers that (shouldn't) be, are engaged in a coverup.   

 

Meta wants AI characters (AKA Bots) to fill up Facebook and Instagram 'kind of in the same way (real) accounts do 

pcgamer.com and several other sources

Of course by the time you see something like this being openly reported, we know damn well that it has in fact been going on for a very long time.

I could give many examples, but the one that immediately comes to mind is the "Chemtrails conspiracy". 

The term Chemtrails sounds conspiratorial, and that was by design.  

 That's right the technology as well as the chemical compounds being used are documented in US patents, and the Chinese are openly perfecting their weather modification programs. 

China is massively expanding its weather-modification program, saying it will be able to cover half the country in artificial rain and snow by 2025 businessinsider.com

 SHANGHAI, CHINA - AUGUST 04: Tourists enjoy the wind brought by typhoon Hagupit at the Bund on August 4, 2020 in Shanghai, China. (Photo by Yang Jianzheng/VCG via Getty Images)

 

 Getting back on topic 

Dead Internet Dead Money/ Market

If you've been following this blog for any length of time, then you know I've been complaining about the lack of interest in trading I find on Twitter, as well as the overwhelming amount of hype created by fictional/ bot (profiles) accounts, and today it's worse than ever. 

Just this morning I pointed to manipulation in Chinese markets, and a bot asks me this question: 


This after I find the most odd Crypto topic trending #1 this morning: 

 

That #1 trending topic is obviously being driven by bot activity 

It's become so bad that I recently did a search for the top online trading community, but most of the answers you find are propagated by bots, or writers trying to get you to click on a link, and make a purchase.

But Wait There's More! 





You could simply avoid social media, or NOT interact with anyone, and I avoid the most popular social media platform of all - FaceBook - like the plague,  but on Twitter/ X I prefer a more direct approach:

Of course this hurts my social media score, and makes me way less popular than your typical bot

What Is Social Media Scoring? (Plus How To Increase It) indeed.com

As far as Trading:

Trading has been excellent so far this year, thanks to a Santa Rally in Crypto, and several other sectors. You just need to know where to look... as I pointed out in my 2024 wrap-up, and 2 subsequent blogs.  

 

Good luck in 2025!

AA 






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Friday, January 3, 2025

Santa Rally Comes Late

I pretty much just use this blog as a means to highlight what I'm calling out on Twitter/ X, so you'll be better off checking my timeline over there, if you're looking for a trade. I also have several hedge funds who are following me, and they like to take the opposite side of every trade I call, so also keep that in mind, when following me. 

First off - from Investopedia:

Santa Claus Rally: What It Is and Means for Investors 

The Santa Claus rally specifically occurs during a seven-day period spanning the last five trading days of December and first two trading days of January, with historical data showing positive returns about four-fifths of the time

 So, if you go by the historic dates for a Santa Rally, we're running a little late, and I think the reason for this is that Money doesn't get put to work until the first Monday of the month. It would be an interesting study to figure out how that factors into the Santa Rally equation.

This year we saw stocks top out ahead of the New Year, and profit taking ensued, and that continued into yesterday, with a heap of bad news (real or imagined).   

Yesterday felt like a Monday, and traded much like a Monday, since traders are still returning from vacation. 

We saw the rug pulled on the market immediately after the open. 

 

This is what the smart money does. They shake out the retail investor. That's you.

I don't usually announce when I'm taking profits, because I'm not always right, and I don't want to negatively impact your trading style. 

Yesterday was the exemption, when I saw the $VIX spiking in the middle of the day, again. 

  This type of shakeout is typically what you see, just ahead of real money being put to work at the beginning of the year.

Not to brag, but I read markets in real time, like a boss, and unless you were following my timeline, you're going to miss 90% of my tweets anyhow.  

My take on the Market, going into yesterday's close: 

 I explain why markets can no longer correct in my 2024 wrap-up. 

Futures Higher This Morning

One of my secrets to being right all the time, is because I'm usually up early reading markets, and weeding out the real news, from the fake news, and as slow as the hedge funds are to complete a cycle nowadays, I can read these markets like a book. It's hardly even a challenge anymore. Maybe at some point we'll get some real news that can move markets, but that remains to be seen. 

Here's an for example: 

The retail investor sees WWIII trending and Israel at war, and Ukraine/ NATO/ Joe Biden & co fighting a proxy war with Russia, and of course this looks bearish, right? Wrong. 

These are energy wars

1. Israel - for example - is trading at all time highs. Chart the $TA125 for yourself... 

2. We just completed our first LNG shipment to Ukraine. Google it

Getting back to yesterday's trade: 

We did see a little follow through on Pot Stocks up another 7%, but they continue to struggle around that $4 level - on the $MSOS. Perhaps it's going to take an earnings report to propel the sector higher? 

Crypto had a nice run, as expected. 

Gold miners were higher - a trade I forgot to mention in the last update. 

 As I stated above and predicted ahead of the new year, I'm expecting to see another sector rotation, out of energy, and back into tech. 

GL, AA


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