Thursday, December 5, 2019

Market Update 12/5/2019 Market Breaks Out; Right On Schedule

Seeing market futures being manipulated higher again this morning, on Headlines out of the UK: My European chart is proprietary, but I can tell you Europe is leading... and that's where Money Managers are looking for value.

The breaking news: 

1. General election news – live: Boris Johnson’s last-ditch tax cuts unveiled ‘in fear of Labour closing gap in polls’ - independent.co.uk story linked

2. Four Brexit Party MEPs are set to quit this morning and urge voters to back Tories - dailymail.co.uk story linked 

 Master market manipulator, Jim Cramer (if you read his books) was conspicuously seen on the set of Fast Money yesterday. Market breaks support, and the plunge protection team comes in, and repairs the chart. I have no doubt he's been working behind the scenes, since the crash of '08, when he called out the Federal Reserve. I think practically nobody has more experience rigging markets, than James Cramer. 

I think the powers that be were caught with their pants down when the $VIX broke out, but they're right back at it - rigging volatility. It's easy...

Monday, we saw a surprise to the downside, which broke support, followed by a gap up, on Tuesday. Trap doors were sprung, but now you see them closed again. If you're watching the public charts area, you know what I'm talking about.   

$NDX See the black line (support), and the blue trap door (closed). That means, if you went short on Monday, you're trapped.  


I suspect the short sellers are going to remain trapped for a while. The bears crying in my twitter feed are contrarians, who obviously don't follow this blog. "Never sell a dull market", for the hundredth time. 

Think the market can't be held up for a few more weeks? 

1. We got the FED announcement just before Dec. OPEX, then the Christmas break, and nobody wants to put on massive short positions going into the holidays. 

2. The bulls aren't going to take profits until 2020, because they don't want to have to pay taxes on there massive gains.  

*3. Sell-off 's start off slowly, and snap-back rallies take time to complete. 

*Let's use $TSLA as an example, since I called the recent reversal. Let's assume it's already in a bear market. See wave 1. Wave 2 takes time to complete, in order to form a bearish channel. That could take as long as January.... 




The DOW looks like it's going to fill the gap at the open, and possibly break out above 27750. That would become the next support level. You can see where it was driven back above my green support line yesterday.       

That's a bullish looking chart, and a path to 29k by March, if MM's are forced to chase performance.

I do think we're going to get another little downside surprise, but see the trend the chart below.

$SPLV - $SPX - low volatility ETF -
This one has been consolidating in a range for 2+ months, so it's no wonder the $SPX is struggling.


$ALLK - This was an awesome call yesterday, and I was able to chart it in real time, in about 1 min, and find the upside target.


I think the rally in energy is about to fizzle, but it's gold miners, I'm really bearish on.

$NUGT - Seeing a down-turned megaphone pattern on this 3x miner bull. I'd trade into $DUST, and use the 30 level on $NUGT as your stop. If $NUGT breaks out, that would be bullish.



Follow the public charts at the link provided in the side menu.
I'll be charting the open in real time, as usual.
AA








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Wednesday, December 4, 2019

Market Update 12/4/2019 $SPX 3100

I wake up at 3 AM this morning, and I decide to check futures, and there they are breaking out, above the magic 3100 level. Not much of a surprise, as the $DAX has already crawled back above the 13k level. $DAX up = US futures up, for the past - almost - 12 months.


We saw the #VIX hammered right at resistance, and you won't see panic selling, until it breaks out again. Don't hold your breath.

Another way they manipulate markets higher, is by hammering the leveraged bear funds.
$SOXS to get hammered back down at the open. 


The FakeNews is obsessed with everything Trump, and even Lou Dobbs reported, last night, that the market fell on Trump's negative China comments. Of course the machines are trading those headlines, and this is all being coordinated. It's no surprise CNBC comes on at 4 AM, on the east coast to push the Bullish Trump Trade headline, which triggers the Quant Trading programs. Market Futures Manipulation complete!  After watching this 10+ years, I suspect the Powers that be have been rigging markets for 70 years, so it's no wonder the banks never face criminal charges, for their racketeering.


The Charts: 
I've been updating the public charts area this morning, and added this $TSX chart, just as Bloomberg was seen reporting, "The Market Whipsaw" continues.

TSX - ride the whipsaw. Wave 5 can fall short, or throw-over, and will probably take at least a couple days to complete.


$APPL - took out my revised downside target - at the lower purple line - at the open. Until they sell Apple, there's isn't a correction, and the banksters at $JPM just raised the target. 
 

DOW - The LT Dow Chart I published yesterday, pulled back to my pink support line. 50 day ma is trading just below it, but will probably be taken out if support breaks.



I have a lot of charting to do. Watch for alerts in my twitter feed, and more importantly the support levels, $VIX levels, and the public charts. 

Later, AA





Tuesday, December 3, 2019

Market Update 12/3/2019 - DOW 28,000 breaks

The short term charts are breaking, so we'll be going to longer term charts.
I see a 27500 target on the DOW. Still trading in a bullish channel

$SPX 3100 is taken out in pre-market. That's going to take out my pink stophunt, on my 10 min chart, so we're bound to see some panic selling at the open.


In yesterday's blog, I mentioned that the Michael Bloomberg Network, was trying to blame this pullback on Trump, as always do, and next thing you know the Trump campaign bans their reporters from covering any further rallies, or campaign events, and Trump labels Globalist, China lover, Michael Bloomberg, "#mini-mike".   See: Trump campaign to blacklist Bloomberg News - axios
Also See: Video shows Bloomberg saying China's 'Xi Jinping is not a dictator' Taiwan News 


Later in the day, I'm checking the charts, and notice that $APPL and $AMD aren't being sold, and tweet the bullish chart, and only a few hours later $JPM raises their target on Apple.



$APPL - looks like it's trading into a bullish consolidation in wave 4. I'll be providing updates on this one, in my twitter feed.




Something I forgot to mention last week, is the gap target on the $NYSE, finally filled. I did however alert to it in the public charts area, and you'll find an identical chart in there. This index failed to make a new all time high, and a (W) - (X) - (Y) pattern is a bearish combination pattern. That would mean that the entire rally of 2019 was a snap-back rally in a bear market.

Looking at the DOW, you can see the larger EW count - a bearish running wave B - in a sideways triangle, or pennant pattern. Yesterday's little sell-off is hardly even visible on the chart.

It's too soon to establish a down-trend in a bear market, but we'll see what pattern develops, and which sectors are leading.

I was feeling a little under the weather yesterday, so I didn't spend much time charting, and will probably be taking it easy, again today.

I still think we could see a big bull market in energy, and you see it consolidating on the chart below.
$IXE - Energy


My thoughts are they will run Energy up on the Saudi IPO. Sectors rotation out of Tech, and whatever else is over-bought, into Energy stocks. 

We could even see  gold money rolled over into Oil.  

$GOAU  miners -

Oil - The trend remains up, and the $USO closed on the 50 day ma. That's the level to watch


Everyone is bearish Energy, and most investors know Oil sands is a bankrupt industry, so I wouldn't be expecting worse news. 

That's it for today. I'm going to have my hands full at today's open.

Take Care,
AA

Monday, December 2, 2019

Market Update 12/2/2019 - Cyber Monday

Dow 28k Day 3.

Market futures up as predicted in my twitter feed on Black Friday. Continue to watch the $VIX target I alerted to last week. That becomes the pivot.

$VIX gapped up exactly where I said it would, last week, and Friday, there wasn't a buyer to be found.
I think we've seen the top, but I suppose we could retest the highs one more time. The $VIX is sitting above support, but I suspect the powers that be will punch it back down, one more time.

The Micheal Bloomberg network is trying to blame this weakness on a Trump tweet, about replacing steel, and aluminum, tariffs, on Brazil, and Argentina, but Europe is actually leading the way down, on Political unrest in Germany. See: Merkel crisis: German leadership on brink as coalition cracks – 'cannot continue' - Express.co.uk

The $DAX topped out about a week ago, and has been struggling ever since so US markets should not have traded to new highs, but manipulators gonna manipulate, this time of year.

I see a scenario in which Germany, and Canada, and others continue into a bearish wave 5, but this isn't a target I'm trading into, and if support breaks right here, stops are going to be taken out.

$SPY is looking very toppy here


Can't wait to see what the pullback looks like.

If the $SPX somehow manages to make a new high, it will probably coincide with the lower channel on this 3X leveraged $SPX bear ETF chart, around the $26 level. Maybe a little washout below there. This isn't the time to be complacent. 


Opening bell rang 3 minutes ago,
Follow me on Twitter @3XTraders
AA