Friday, January 27, 2023

Market Update 1/27/2023 - Energy, Oil, Dow, NASDAQ, $NYSE Flash Surge

 Archived 1276 charts this morning, and that only includes charts that go back to April, 2022.

Looking at the market

Can you believe how the market has run in 2023? 

Of course the Lame Stream Media chalks this up to a "soft landing", being priced in, but that's the same thing they were saying, just before the crash of  '08. 

The truth is, money gets put to work at the beginning of every year, regardless of the numbers, or the fed, or even the threat of WWIII. 

Sure, the powers that be, tried to shake the weak hands, when they returned from holiday, but that was only in order to buy the dip

NASDAQ (futures) - driven to 12k

$INDU (futures) driven back to 34k 

Even number targets are a PsyOp

$DAX was recently driven back to 15k. Only 1000 points off the 2022 high. 

And all this interest in Emerging markets, just because Chine is removing Covid restrictions? 

Since when has the Chinese consumer driven any economic boom? 

This marks a new recent low in foreign investor intelligence, I'm afraid. 

Foreign Investors Flooding Back into China etftrends.com


Speaking of Stupid Foreign Investors  

CNBC Immediately takes the other side, of the warning I put out on India, yesterday! Think they aren't following me? India a "bright spot" they now claim, and then they try to get you to subscribe... laughable!  

Did you see what happened in India overnight? 

Getting back to US markets 


After all the hand wringing we witnessed in 2022, the DOW is only 3000 points away from making new all time highs! 

Speaking of new highs: 

I'm watching several stocks - including $XOM, and I think since ITEL missed earnings to badly, they dumb money will continue to rush into Energy names.  Could be a good day trade, and could even extend into next week. 

I was unsure where the next sector rotation might take place, but it seems like money is coming out of the mining, and materials sector, and it's going back into Energy Stocks. 

I've mentioned Exxon before, because it's one of the key heavily weighted names that's consistently used to drive the broader indices, and especially the $SPX. 

Pivot to The $NYSE Flash Surge 

Exxon was one of the names that was effected by the recent flash surge, or crash - whatever you want to call it. I'm calling it a "Flash Surge". 

I find it hilarious that the corrupt fake financial news use terms like "snafu", or "glitch" to describe a major system failure, at the New York Stock Exchange, to try minimize it, and I speak in psychological terms, because it is a bit of a psy-op.  

  

Psychological operations, or PSYOP, are intended to “convey selected information and indicators to foreign audiences to influence their emotions, motives, objective reasoning, and ultimately the behavior of foreign governments, organizations, groups, and individuals. fas.org 

Getting back to Exxon and the like: 

1. Looks like these energy names are in a head-fake rally, so I certainly wouldn't be chasing energy here. 

2. I raised the target on Exxon to $120 in my twitter feed. 

3. I'm not going to reveal my $XOM charts - I have several working - but I can tell you it could run as high as $123, or even higher, if it continues to hold up into February.  

Reminder: If you're going to trade energy, you better be keeping a close eye on oil. 

Oil - has run, as I predicted it would, but it's kind of pivotable here, meaning it could go either way. 

 Need my help trading Oil? 

I almost tweeted a free #oil chart, but no... That's going to cost you $100. PM me...

— Veteran Market Timer (@3Xtraders) January 26, 2023

Other Energy names to watch 

$VLO breaking out to new all time highs 

$PSX "" Chart below






And last but not least Chevron $CVX 


Chevron Stock Falls as Earnings Disappoint barrons



No wonder they felt the need to do a buyback! This is what companies do, when they run out of future growth opportunities. It should be illegal to juice your own stock. 

I'm out of time. 

Watch for the New Letter - in your mailbox - this weekend, 

AA 




sss 

Thursday, January 26, 2023

Market Update 1/26/2023 - The Waiting Game

I wanted to delve deeper into the $NYSE flash surge/ crash, because there's finally some news being reported on the situation, but the whole situation is quite unbelievable. 

Apparently an employee at the NYSE forgot to turn off the lights, when he left work, at the end of the day, and that caused a major system failure! You can't make this shit up! 

I'm not sure which news room - if any - to trust, but some information is leaking out 

NYSE Says Short-Selling Restrictions Responsible for Glitch barrons


Of course Bloomberg seems more interested in reporting on Tesla's problems, than a major system failure at the NYSE. 
I'll have more to report on the situation, after further investigation, although we never got the whole story; after the so called "flash crash", of 2010, and God knows the market controllers, have a lot to hide....    

Market Update Thursday 1/26/2023 The Waiting Game 

The market continues to hold up - trading in a seemingly endless range. Some sectors remain trapped at the top of a range, while others remain trapped at the bottom of the range. Still others continue to make  higher recent highs. 

Gold Miners - for instance, rallied to another recent high, yesterday. This is where the scared money is hiding. They've moved from Energy, to Gold miners.

I alerted to this trade, in my Twitter, yesterday morning, and I have a sell target, if you need one! PM me... 


Getting back to the broader market 

The broader market has gone from trading in a bearish channel - or triangle - to trading into a sideways range, which is a difficult thing to predict, even for someone with my experience. 

Canada

for example - has been trading in a generally sideways range for the past 6 months!




Sure it's made a new recent high, but it's not like you can find a bullish pattern on the chart, and if you're still trading the broader US market, you're dealing with the same thing.

 What's funny, is as soon as the Dow starts trading back above the 200 day, the bulls start asking, "does this mean this rally is poised to continue"?  

This is what happens when markets hold up.... people become overly complacent. Just look at what happened, just ahead of the so called "covid crash", the market continued to tread water for an entire year, and everyone got complacent as a "breakout to new highs", was being reported. 

Reminder 2019 - 2020

$INDU - market holds up - in a false breakout - for 14 weeks, just ahead of the covid crash. 


Did they release the Covid virus, from a lab in China, in order to have an excuse to bailout the financial system, one more time? I can't say for sure, but it seems to me that the manufactured crisis was used for that very purpose, and all that unnecessary money printing caused commodities to inflate. Create the problem, create the solution, rinse and repeat. 

How Long Can You Wait For A Market TO Roll Over?  

14 weeks sounds like a long time to wait, but today we see the Indian market hold up for over a year!

$NIFTY - monthly candlestick chart  


The longer the period of consolidation... the worse the correction is going to be, and this chart has been added to the Public Charts Area. 

Waiting for the next black swan 

It's getting to the point, where I think I need to start relying on longer term charts, to time my trades, and I've already moved towards this approach somewhat. 

For Example: I finished taking profits - in tech - a couple weeks ago, and I'm just sitting on my hands and getting caught up on my charting, rather than going short - for example - $SOX. Now you see $SOX continue to hold up, with pretty-much everything else.  

The $VIX

Like I said in my twitter yesterday, the bears can't seem to gain any traction, as long as the $VIX is going to be hammered back below the magic 20 level, and that's exactly why the manipulators do it. 

Remember when I mocked the market bears for thinking that a $VIX below 20 was a bearish signal? 

What About Energy? 

Remember when I predicted that the Energy sector would continue to hold up, into the end of the year, and beyond, and that's exactly what we're seeing.... 

More waiting

Related Story 



What about China? 

China has rallied into the Chinese New Year, and you see that continue to tread water.  

$KWEB - Chinese Internet - trades in a range - more waiting I'm afraid 

 



As reactionary as Investors are nowadays, I would expect markets to move faster, but it seems like, more and more, they only move in one direction - sideways 

Take Care, AA 

 

Wednesday, January 25, 2023

Market Rally Still Looks Tired To Me

 This Market Rally looked tired last week, and it still looks tired. 

See Last Wednesdays Update: 

Market Update - Hump-day - Wednesday 1/18/23 - This Rally Looks Tired

We're still seeing some speculative plays squeezing out some short sellers, as was the case in yesterday's top gainers... $PYR, $GROM, $AXLA, and several others. 

$GNS for example - obviously an engineered short squeeze. 


Related Story from CNBC 

Today's Biggest Pre-Market Stock Movers: 10 Top Gainers and Losers on Tuesday CNBC

Those are huge profits for the Hedge Funds who are behind these kinds of moves! 

Speaking of Market Manipulation 

I suspect that was the real cause of yesterday's so called "System Issue", which caused trading anomalies at the NYSE. 

Related Story - Yahoo Finance 

NYSE Investigates Technical Issue That Caused Wild Market Open


Funny, I watch a lot of financial news, but I was totally in the dark on the situation, until I figured it out on my own, several hours later!

 I didn't notice anything amiss when I loaded Think or Swim, in the morning, but by later in the day I could sense that something just wasn't quite right, and decided to start checking on some heavily weighted names in the $SPX.

 What I found were some wild swings, and tests of the 50 day moving averages, followed, by panic selling.

 I suspect algorithmic trading programs - which are already being primed to take the market down, were prematurely triggered. 

Kudos to Fast Money's Guy Adami, who also suspects that something "nefarious" is going on! 

The market isn't acting right, and anyone who's fool enough to remain involved, deserves whatever may come, next.... 

Watch Microsoft - it was up 5% in after hours trading, but this morning it looks like it wants to lead the way lower.

As if things were not crazy enough the Doomsday Clock as been moves up, as Germany gives the go ahead, to supply Ukraine with Tanks. 

 Related from Barrons: 

Doomsday Clock 



 




Tuesday, January 24, 2023

Has Gold Really Outperformed Bitcoin? Fact Checking: Jim Cramer

 Crypto  vs Gold 

On The 1/23/23 edition of Mad Money, Jim Cramer make the argument that Gold has outperformed Bitcoin, and he claims that Gold has led the rally, as tech has sold off, paraphrasing. 

Related Story linked CNBC

Charts suggest investors should ignore ‘crypto cheerleaders’ and stick with gold, Jim Cramer says

Watch the entire 10 min Video For Yourself 


Now Let's Do and Honest Comparison Between Gold and Bitcoin: 


1. Bitcoin has traded from 15,700, all the way back to 23k., over the past few months. That's a 50%
 gain!  



2. Gold has traded from around the $1600 level (1618.30), all the way back to 1939.00, for a gain of 20%.

Although Bitcoin does tend to sell-off with Tech stocks, Gold has in no way outperformed Bitcoin 

FACT CHECKED AND PROVEN TOTALLY FALSE!  

As I've said before, I believe, former Goldman Sachs Employee, Jim Cramer does the bidding of the Deep State, and the Money Printers, but I'll leave it up to you, to decide, what Cramer's motivation is, for painting a false narrative. 

   
Take Care, 
AA