Tuesday, February 23, 2021

Market Update 2/23/21 - mixed markets

 If you missed the last update, you should review it, just to get caught up to speed. 

Yesterday (Monday) we saw tech and the NASDAQ sold, while energy stocks were driven up around 3%. 

This morning we see the $XOP pinned above support. Think it could test the 85 level, but I remain bearish Energy. 


Oil service stocks continue to trade into a broadening top pattern, and I see the highs being tested 1 more time, before this pattern completes. 



The NASDAQ was taken down below the 50 day moving average, which is significant, but we're seeing the same pattern... as on the above energy chart. I suspect we see the price action craw back into the upper channel, or gap back above the 50 ma, which would trigger program buying. 



$SPX - same expanding ascending triangle pattern - support 3740, res. 3885. 


Another this that's significant is that the $VIX was hammered below the 200 day ma, and if you follow my linked in alerts, you know real res. is 25 (at my red line). There's also a possible gap fill target on the $VIX around 28. 

There's a possibility this is just the beginning of a larger correction, but selling season isn't until May, and we're not really seeing a risk off situation. Even the $RUT is poised to bounce back here, after testing key support. 



That's about all I got, for now. 

Take Care, AA





Friday, February 19, 2021

Market Update Friday Feb. 19th, 2021 - the Mother of all Suckers Rallies?

 I haven't blogged an update for nearly a year, and not spending countless hours on twitter, like I used to.  I took some time off, knowing the market wasn't going to sell off, anytime soon, and patterns take time to develop, and the news cycle had become so disturbing - ahead of the election, I had to turn it off, and walk away.   

It's good to walk away from the charts for a while, and observe. It's kind of like when you put a musical instrument down, and then come back to it. It gives a fresh perspective, and new ideas. 

One thing I've discovered over the past year, is that the computers have really taken over, and more often than not moving averages are working. 

Using the DOW chart as a good example of moving averages driving the market: 



Using the $SPX as an example of this - you can see where the 50 day ma was most recently bought, after it was walked down to that level going into the 1st trading day of this month. Easiest trade in the world, if you know what to look for.  

Certain hot sectors - for instance the Russell 2000 - continue to hold above the 15-20 day. 

$IWM - Russell ETF - this may not be the best example, because ETF's can track a little differently, than the underlying index, but you can be sure the $RUT is being bought above the 20 day ma. 



$SOX - same thing - this bull run obviously isn't over, but don't become complacent, as selling season approaches.   

That's not to say you should own stocks up here.

Looking at the big picture - The NASDAQ and tech in general has already overshot... and is overbought. 

NASDAQ - trading above the top of the channel. This could hold up for a few more months, before breaking support, so don't hold your breath... 


Where I see immediate risk is in the commodities markets, and in oil and energy. 

And of course the IMF came out this morning, to give the green light to Joe Biden's proposed $1.9t stimulus plan. Stating that it poses little risk of spurring inflation. Now, you may ask yourself, "why is the IMF supporting leftist socialism?, and that's a good question.  

Funny, the fake financial news has been pushing the story of a "super cycle in commodities, all week, and that can only mean one thing. The powers that be - who control every news outlet - are already selling this, "mother of all suckers rallies."   

Remember when they recently reported that retail reddit traders were going to drive up Silver? Never trust the fake news.

 $SLV 



$GTX -  is the SPX commodities index - is testing the 200 week ma. It's at clear LT resistance.  


$CRB - resembles a counter-trend (suckers) rally - A - B - C. Again, see where the 200 day ma was bought! I could blog all day, on this topic, but I gotta wrap this up. 

As far as timing for a market sell-off: I'd be watching the $VIX 18.50 level (the 200 week ma). We're bound to see money come in below $VIX 20, but then if the $VIX bounces out of the hole, and gets back above 20, that would be a clear risk off trade. It's possible commodities lead the way down, and my upside target for $WTI crude is around $65. 

$WTI crude - 12 yr bear market and counting, and a globalist plot to do away with fossil fuels?  


I could go on for several more hours, but this should carry the day, and possibly even the next few weeks. 


Take Care, AA 


 


   ^

Friday, April 24, 2020

Technical Update - Weekly Wrap-up 4/24/2020

Seeing futures high which is no surprise on this weekly options expiration. Since every technical trader watches the $SPX, the thing to watch is the 50 day moving average.

$SPX - this daily candlestick chart can be found in the public charts area. Find the link to the PCA in the side menu.


The technicals are being driven to moving averages, and that's been the case, since most everything found support at the 200 week moving averages, back in March, so trying to find chart patterns is a waste of time.

I pointed this out in March, and the results a months later, using MERCK as an example.


 Several sectors have lead the biggest rally since the 1930's - all the usual suspects. Tech, including already over bought FAANG stocks, $SOX, and gov. subsidized Healthcare. Too bad there is no longer a 3X healthcare bear, but $SICK no longer exists.

$NDX - Again Check out the 50 day ma!


$AAPL "" This is one to watch

$AAPL a month later


So, why are moving averages working? Could be computer trading, but the market typically back-tests the 200 day ma, after a crash into a bear market. Market makers, don't know where technical support or resistance is. They don't use resistance lines, because they couldn't chart their way out of a paper bag. Moving averages are simple, and when you drive the $NDX above the 50 day ma, it looks like a bullish signal to the average retail investors, and it's easy to unload your shares, as you see them continue to buy $AAPL.   


Miners have been one of the best performing sectors, of all, and you can see the chart pattern on the $GDM. Upturned triangles at the end of a long run, are super-bearish.  I think it can pull back, and make another run at the highs, before collapsing, but I'm looking forward to selling this sector. $DUST and $NUGT actually follow the $GDX, which is totally rigged, but the $GDX isn't going to decouple from the $GDM.


If you've never traded the 3X miner funds, you shouldn't. These are super volatile, and 15% swings are nothing.


The Dow is lagging: Hasn't even tested the 50 day ma (@ 24090.

It scares me when certain sectors are trading at recent highs, and other sectors - like energy - are trading near all time lows. It sets up for a re-balancing, and with the $VIX still trading in the uper 30's, bad things can happen. 

Longer term Dow chart - located in the public charts area - looks like a crawl back into the bullish channel, so this rally looks like a repeat of the 2019  rally, which ended in disaster.

Longer term, it's too soon to say, but the support levels I pointed out in my latest FACE interview continue to hold.

I'm outta time. Maybe I'll lay out my longer term outlook in a future update.

Have a Good Weekend,
AA






















Thursday, April 23, 2020

Market Update 4/23/2020 - Oil Falls to $10 as Predicted Less Than A Month Earlier


$WTI Crude Oil Washes Out Just Below My $10 Target!

Best Call of the Year!

Of course every network, including social networks, were seen trying to cause mass hysteria, over the collapse in oil futures. That's the unseen hand, hard at work, as usual. Never trust the #FakeNews
Bloomberg must have had 20 different experts on to tell us the Oil crash is going to continue. This after $WTI had already doubled off the $7 low.


See Analyst View: Oil Price Crash, what next? reuters 

Gold, and Gold Miners, I think. Hopefully not not the quadrillion derivatives market!  

The last major bottom we saw in gold miners coincided with the 2016 bottom in Oil.

I think the Gold bugs believe there's going to be inflation, or hyper-inflation, but the global lock-down is DEFLATIONARY, and there's no sign of the end of the lock-down, or a recovery.

Covid19 as it turns out it just an excuse to transform America in to Chinamerica - mass surveillance state - and Illinois has already purchased the syringes for mass vaccinations.




Last night former CIA operative Anderson Cooper was seen grilling the Las Vegas Mayor, because she sees this lock down for what it is, "insanity". Of course, a twitter storm followed, so you know it's a PsyOp (psychological operation).

Psychological operations are operations to convey selected information and indicators to audiences to influence their emotions, motives, and objective reasoning, and ultimately the behavior of governments, organizations, groups, and individuals.
The intelligence agencies has been using the main stream media for a very long time.
It's become to the point where it's a lot of work, just to differentiate fact from fiction, and it's taken several weeks, just to see through this covid19 illusion, a topic for another blog.

See:




As I blogged back in Oct., when I saw this coming:


This is fascism in America, and the corporate owned main stream media is marching in lock step! Scary stuff Linked


As far as the market is concerned, it continues to be propped up, and every rescue package helps.

We finally got a pullback on Technical Tuesday, but I could tell, by the afternoon, the $VIX (fear indicator) was going to be hammered down at res. again. This little snap-back rally probably continues into weekly options expiration tomorrow, but I'm expecting a much bigger pullback, to create a bear trap, ahead of more short squeezes already being planned, headed into Memorial Day weekend.

Gold looks like it could take out the $1800 level, looking a 1 min live chart, this morning



Longer term:

I'm looking for a pullback at some point, before retesting the highs again, maybe around August, and then the rug to be pulled out again, in order to influence the 2020 election, if there is an election.

It's hard to predict what the market is going to do 3 days from now, so follow my twitter page for the latest updates, and there's a link to the public charts in the side menu.

Take Care,
AA