Saturday, July 20, 2019

Market Update 7/20/2019 - A Look At The Week Ahead

It was kind of a stressful week, and still getting caught up today, Saturday. 

It was a wild OPEX Friday, starting with a higher high (off Thursdays bottom), followed by a pulled back to a higher low, and that's bullish. $VIX also ended below the previous high of 14.48, so we're not seeing much fear in the market. Unless the market can start making lower lows, then I'm going to remain bullish going into the The Fed announcement, at the end of the month.

The public charts area has been updated,

 and I've switched out the 1 min. chart for a 5 minute chart.

$SPX 5 min: Watch for another breakout to the upside Monday morning, unless it continues to consolidate (bullish), below my red line. That would push-back the breakout until Technical Tuesday.

Friday's action was more about Options Expiration, than anything. Bloomberg was seen reporting - BREAKING NEWS - that Iran has seized a British oil tanker, and that helped ensure that the retail bulls would not get paid on their bullish Call Options.

This is what happens when you hammer down the $VIX, instead of buying insurance... Complacency can be a dangerous thing, and bad things come when you least expect them.

The main reason for this update is to get you focused on the longer term, instead of a 1 min chart, which I've had to switch out in the middle of the afternoon, 2 days in a row now, because after a few hours of volatile trading the chart is a complete and total mess. I've gone to a 5 min chart view, hoping that solves the problem, but the 1 - 5 minute charts, are for day traders, and more for entertainment purposes than anything else.

If you trade on a longer term basis, you need to follow the longer term charts, and not worry about 100 point swings on the DOW, or whether or not "stocks maintained their 3 day winning streak", or , "stocks ended down for the week". This kind of reporting is a distraction from reality, and meant to keep people watching cable news, for rating ratings.

This brings me to the next chart - The DJIA daily candlestick chart:

As you can see on the above chart, the market has hardly moved over the past week, and continues to hold up in the top of the range, above my thin blue line. This chart isn't available in the public charts area, because unless folks care enough to follow this blog, they don't deserve the best charts I have to offer. That goes for the $VIX charts as well. Why should I give it all away for free?

$VIX continues to trend lower

,and as long as that continues, the "no fear" trade, as I like to call it, is on.

If you'd like a copy of my short term $VIX chart, and personalized charts, and updates, for 30 days, make a donation of $100. I'll even show you where the next major market correction is going to take place, and that could save you a bundle! Here's a link to my Paypal, if you're interest.

SILVER: Almost broke the stop hunt on Friday, but that never happens on the first test of key support. Dip buyers always come in, so I'm expecting a nice 2 - 3 rally. It may even continue to hold up into the Fed.

SLV - This is the 30 min from the public charts area

Silver contracts expired on Friday, and that's something you definitely want to keep in mind, when trading commodities. Equities markets are all about Options Expiration, and commodities are about contract expiration.

Good luck this week, Traders 


Friday, July 19, 2019

Market Update 7/19/2019 - The Week In Review

Announcements: I'm still locked out of my Twitter account, so I can't provide updates on the fly.
Support is non existent, and unless you have a phone number associated with your account, it's a real PITA to get your account back.

Watch the short term $SPX chart, for intra-day updates, in the annotations. Refresh your screen often, especially when when the market is moving, or you see me "Charting in real time".

Major Malfunction: After finishing up yesterday's update, I discovered the Public Charts area wasn't even public, so Wednesday was a total waste of time, and energy. At least I got it back up in time for yesterday's trade, which turned out to be a monster!

Yesterday's reversal: It was incredible, and coincided with the bottom in Oil, which I also nailed perfectly! Then news breaks - that we shot down an Iranian drone - to confirm what I was seeing on the chart. Uncanny!

$SPX - yesterday's short covering rally almost made up for the lack of clarity of the past week.
Until a down-trend is established it's hard to get short.... but by yesterday's open the trend had become clear, and the breakout was obvious. 

In hind sight, even after getting bearish on Tuesday, I was apparently not bearish enough. I think I was little distracted this week, with setting up the public charts area, and the volume has been light, but I think I can do better....

Calling tops and bottoms has become somewhat routine, but even after 10+ years of this, it's not easy trading into a reversal, and picking a pullback target, especially when markets tend to overshoot, and you got machines buying moving averages, and such.

If you think equities are hard to predict, try Gold & Silver and the Miners!

$GDX - I'm still seeing a broadening pattern, and a major bottom around this time next year, which lines up pretty well for a major top in equities, but we I think won't know for a couple more weeks.
If the Fed drops the ball again, it could be a game changer for metals.     

Short term outlook is somewhat bearish. I think we can hold up today, and trade up into a range, going into the Fed, but  I think this weeks pullback was the beginning of a larger correction


Thursday, July 18, 2019

Market Update 7/18/2019 - Searching for a pullback target

 We've seen a little selling over the past few days, but nothing to write home about. We've established a little downtrend, on the 1 min chart, and if this continues, the trend on the longer term charts is going to start breaking, and that's going to cause downside acceleration, but I'm not expecting that.

I've drawn up a couple fresh 1 min chart views this morning: 1 is in the public charts area, and this is the other one (below). The larger pattern looks like a rising expanding triangle (aka megaphone pattern), with a 2981 - 82 target. Whichever charts works, we'll go with.

 It's important to watch the $VIX here. If it continues to break out, and gets above the 14.10 level, we could see a nice little washout. That's the short term pivot

$VIX - 10 min view:

 Tomorrow is OPEX, so I'm expecting the market to build a base this morning, and squeeze the short sellers out on a Friday as usual. Then we got the THE FED announcement...

The $RUT continues to consolidate bullish imo, and that be the sector that continues to lag behind the broader market.  Here's a 30 min chart, I may add to the PC area.

 That may not be the prettiest chart, but it's still working. The trend (in blue) is up. 

 Speaking of Trends: Silver continues higher, and miners managed to make a new high as well.
Commodities tend to overshoot, as do the leveraged ETF's. This is the norm.
$NUGT has doubled since June, and just pierced the upper triangle line, and if you don't know what that means, go back as read the previous sentence.

 And finally - NetFlix trading in the same pattern as the DOW. Amazing!

Public charts - auto refresh Issues continue -

I found an app to refresh the public charts window, but as it turns out, on a refresh; the page asks if I want to resent the data, so that's not going to work.

For now I'll try to refresh the charts manually every hour on the hour, but unless donations start pouring in... I'm not going to waste my summer refreshing short term charts for day traders. I also need down time, or my charting suffers, so I'm not really seeing a solution....  Maybe I can refresh the page from my laptop, without getting too stressed out about it? We'll see....

Good luck, Traders


Wednesday, July 17, 2019

Market Update 7/17 - Publc Charts Area Accidentally Deleted

Yesterday, I accidentally deleted the public charts folder, and I'm still trying to get back up to speed.

This occurred around noon EST, when I returned to update the charts - 30 min. after (3009) support on the 1 minute chart broke - only to find the auto-refresh feature not working, and when I went to delete the broken 1 min chart, I must have hit the wrong delete button. Doh!    

If I had access to my Twitter account I would've put an alert out, but I'm still locked out... at least I had a down arrow on the chart, at the open, so no harm no foul.

1. To solve the auto- refresh problem I'm looking fort an app that will refresh the public charts window, when I'm away from my trading desk. I found an addon for FireFox, but it installed a bunch of junk with it, so then I wasted 20 min. trying to remove it.   

2. I'm not sure if the updated 1 min $SPX chart is working, but that should become obvious soon after this mornings opening bell.

There's obvious support at the 3000 level at my pink support line.


The sell was on a Trump Tweet, and led by Oil, so I think quant trading programs are to blame....
"Trump, tweet, china, increase, tariffs". The AI ain't too bright; this is old news. Where was the selling last week, when China was reported to have broken their end of the deal again? Why isn't China selling off on their lousy growth numbers?    

I checked the oil charts this morning and although the 50 day ma on BRENT was taken out, we see oil bouncing back this morning. That's something to keep an eye on.

Another thing to keep an eye on is Silver. Several websites - the usual suspects (motley fool and the rest...) - can be found on the web (news), pumping the Silver trade, calling it a "BREAKOUT"? Doesn't look like a breakout to me, but yesterday's buying volume was pretty incredible!

 Regardless of the volume, what I'm seeing is a rejection of the previous trend. The bullish channel is broken, and all it did was retest the lower end of it.  

I'm totally out of time.
Good luck today, AA