Friday, September 13, 2019

Market Update 9/13/2019 - Friday the 13th

I'm naturally a little superstitious, but I there's a slight chance we could be looking at a black Friday, or Black Monday, after painting doji reversal candles, on several key indices, at yesterday's close.

Of course, the more likely scenario is that the market holds up into the FOMC meeting, and that news is sold. The AI will probably get paid on this Friday (weekly OPEX), but it is Friday the 13th....
Investors could be spooked, and if the $VIX breaks out, this party will end very suddenly.   

NASDAQ: Most every chart looks like this. A little throw-over past the top of the range. This is where the average retail short seller typically capitulates.

 I'm really not sure how long the NASDAQ can hold above the 8200 level. If this were oil, I would say, "it could hold up for quite a while".  


$DJIA - holding above 27000 - This rally amounts to a 500 point breakout above the 50 day ma.


Of course every financial news outlet is pushing the "new market high" story, as they always do. Does this look like new highs on the $NYSE? No. It's all BS, and this is exactly the kind of nonsense you expect to be reported at the end of a bull market, because everyone remains bullish. Even after the next crash, they will talk about how much the market is up for the year. Well that's great, if you started investing in Jan. of 2019. Not so great for most long term investors!  





I thought I might get rained out today, so I could watch the market trade basically flat again, but the weather's clearing up. I'll set the charts to auto-refresh, but I won't have much time for charting today.

Have a great weekend, AA 
 

Thursday, September 12, 2019

Market Update 9/12/2019 - Wackamole

There's a lot going on this morning, and lately I just don't have much time to spend playing whackamole.  

Trump puts off trade tariffs, as a good-will gesture. We saw short capitulation in AH trading on that news. Funny, when Trump tweets China tariffs, he's blamed for 1000 point declines, yet when he postpones China Tariffs, the $SPX is only up 3 handles (in pre-market)? Tells me that either the (leaked) news has already been priced in, or that "good news is bad news", as the The Fed rate decision draws near. Meaning that if China trade isn't an immediate threat, then there's no reason for the FOMC to take further action.

China Trade War -  Everyone knows China is cheating, by shipping Chinese goods to Taiwan, or wherever else, and stamping it, "Made in Taiwan", and this helps explain the massive move we've seen in the Baltic Dry Index. Funny Bloomberg doesn't report that, and I can't wait to see what excuse they use for the next market sell-off?    

ECB just came out dovish, and that's providing fuel for the snap-back rally in precious metals.

This calls for a commodities sidebar: 


$GLD - Got this one right



Energy held up, despite the reversal in Oil, but we did see the rats scurry from the energy trade, back into tech. The market is pumped, and dumped one sector at the time, and yesterday it was the Russell's turn....  The $RUT chart has been a struggle, so I'm going to see if I can get a better handle on it this morning, in the time I have left. Lately I only have an hour or 2 to chart, and that just doesn't cut it.  

$OIl - Called this one right


Getting back to the $RUT: 

JP Morgans ridiculous call for investors to move into "Value Stocks", also helped the $RUT, and coincided with a breakout above the 50 day ma. Think this wasn't planned? Must be nice to control the news cycle!

 
 I have a $RUT chart in the public charts area, but let's draw up a fresh DCS chart:
1. Trend remains down. 



$RUT - looks like (short) capitulation, at a slightly lower $RVX low - followed by a reversal on that indicator.

$RVX - There's an anomaly on this chart  I've been wanting to document, and this is the perfect opportunity! Why was it down for a week?!

Anyhow 18.70 is the (fear) pivot. Expect it to remain pinned at the top of the range, for a day at least. Friday should be interesting, and at least volume has picked up!

 


$SPX - I found this alternative sideways pattern, on the S&P yesterday afternoon, and raised the target to coincide with another The FED disappointment. I keep raising targets, but the fact that the market continues to inch up is no surprise. I don't really like this alternative sideways pattern, but we did see Oil hold up in a range for a couple years, before it crashed back to earth. I prefer the broadening triangle pattern, but that's going to break the long term charts, so I'm keeping this sideways range, option, open.


$SPX DCS Chart #2 - They drove it to 3000, a psychological target, but it looks slightly overbought to me. Can it hold up into the The Fed? Probably not. Into OPEX? I don't think so. This is dumb money chasing the market up here.



Everyone is expecting the market to break out to new highs, but watch for the market to sell-off, as the $VIX breaks out above 15.

$VIX - reversal coming. 


The $VIX never lies, and I'm sure the algos have already been loaded.... 

Take Care
AA

P.S. OH ONE MORE THING!

The Apple news: Every insider, and his brother, knew the iPhone 11, and Apple TV was coming.
$AAPL managed to break out to a slightly higher high, just above the 220, so watch for investors to run for the exits below that level.  


Wednesday, September 11, 2019

Market Update - Tracking Down The Short Squeeze In Energy Stocks

Continuing where I left off in yesterday's update, and going back to, "When The Cat's Away; The Mice Will Play", and "Never Sell A Dull Market", as I've alerted to in recent blogs, and in the annotations in the Public Charts Area, the retail shorts have been squeezed out of names like Diamond Offshore, up 30% in a week, and several other beaten up energy names, and this has driven the entire rally, including on the $NYSE, and because markets are rigged, the energy sector is bound to hold up into Sept. Options Expiration, which is only a little over a week away. 

$IXE (Energy) - yet another breakout above the 50 day ma., and a retest of that support, going into yesterday's close. Should get a nice bounce at the open.


$DJUSEN - DOW Energy -  here's what the rally looks like on a 2 hour chart. Not too impressive.
I'll be adding this chart to the public charts area.


Energy is a volatile trade, and Oil doesn't look so hot here. I think anything can happen, and if the $VIX breaks out above 17.50 it's going to be risk off again.

$USO - WTI Crude - reversed after throwing out the top of my little triangle pattern. Watch for a little DCB this morning.

Opening bell opens in 10 min

AA









               

  

Tuesday, September 10, 2019

Market Update 9/10/2019 - It's All About Energy

In yesterday's update, it was "all about China". Today's it's energy.

Not seeing much movement in the broader market, but we've seen some big moves in Energy! The Zombie Banking Index ($BKX) was also up nicely, so this rally looks like a little sector rotation at best.  It's amazing to me that the broader market hardly moves, when oil and gas producers are up 4%, and even more amazing that folks would miss out on good trades, waiting for the $SPX to mover, so....

$OIL - We want to sell the top of the range on Oil as soon as this morning

Energy should follow.

$SOX also looks looks week, trading at lower highs. I like $SOXS because it's one of the more volatile triple ETFs. Not for the weak of heart. 


$DUST has been on a tear as gold miners tank. It  broke out above the $7 level yesterday, so that's the level to watch for support,. at my blue line.   



I think we could be looking at a massive market correction, but probably not until after the FED screws up again, and volume picks up; whichever comes first. 

$AAPL is the stock to watch - trading at a lower high, but pinned above support. Maybe stocks can hold up into OPEX?


I'll put the st $USO chart up at the open, but I'm going to be away most the morning. I'll try to check on stocks every couple hours, and maybe I'll have more time to baby sit this market, if storms roll in.
AA