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Tuesday, June 28, 2022

6/28/22 - Quick Market Update

I pretty-much took yesterday off as far as trading, after charting, and blogging right through the second weekend in a row! I had a dentist appointment, so it was a good excused to get away from the computer for a while, and go out for breakfast... 

I'd like to take more trading days off in the future, but the market doesn't trade according to my schedule, and when global markets finally begin to spiral into water-fall patterns, I expect I'll be working nights and weekends, again.  

What I really need is a vacation, and not during one of the busiest travel times of the year. I'm thinking ahead, like way ahead, like the tropics, in Dec. 

Hundreds of Flights Canceled Across U.S. Today newsweek 

The hardest decision I have is deciding where to go, and if you're the same way, then you will want to check out this valuable (5 star reviews) resource, and I should tell you that I may make a small commission when you purchase produces using affiliate links on this website. Much appreciated; win win!  

Destinations of a Lifetime: 225 of the World's Most Amazing Places Hardcover – Illustrated, October 27, 2015  Amazon Link 


 What would really be rad, is to have a 3XTrading seminar in Las Vegas assuming the last of their water doesn't dry up! Maybe in the future, if I can ever complete the book..! 

Even though I felt like I took the day off, I did watch the market action, somewhat (eye roll).      

Trading was about as dull as I predicted it would be in the last update. Like I said, "the easy money has already been made", and the time to trade was when I sounded the warning several weeks ago.  

The trend remains very much down, even after Friday's short squeeze. 

I did sound the warning, to hedge any long bets you still have on

 

The Fake Financial News 

Of course Bloomberg continues to report this as a "bear market rally", while CNBC claims that we could see a rally. What does Bloomberg know? Who is feeding them the story line? And where was CNBC 3-4 weeks ago, when markets turned. It seems they're a little late to the party! And while I'm on the subject of the fake financial news, I think it was Bloomberg, I heard reporting that China is ready to rally? Really? 

China 

has already been on a tear for several months, even as it was being reported that China was on lock-down, due to China's 0 Covid policy. 

Without revealing any charts, just look at $BABA retesting the recent highs again! 


Trading Tip

Do the opposite of what you see the financial fake news telling you, and you should out-perform the market, just fine! 



Russia

2nd quick point I wanted to mention is what looks like an engineered false flag, which I predicted... over the weekend - 

Market Update 6/25/22 - Weekly Market Wrap-up

2. I actually got spooked when I started creating some new short term charts, on Friday, and thinking about AG Merrick Garkand's recent telegraphed visit to Ukraine. What is the real reason for going there, and what are they planning, a Syrian style false flag? Is this a wag the dog moment? Anything to distract from the real problems, and a long list of failures coming out of Washington, not to mention $5 gas.  

As tweeted yesterday: 

Do you see any injured Ukrainians in the picture above? Neither do I! 

What's really hilarious is when the news warns you of "graphic images", and then nothing...  

Russian airstrike hits busy shopping mall in central Ukraine, sparking fears of mass casualties CNN  - #1 in fake news 


Of course this shopping mall attack is nothing like I was expecting, but there may be plenty more... including a chemical weapons attack! 

That reminds me of something else I heard being reported, so gleefully yesterday! 

West pushes Russia into its first foreign debt default since 1918 CNN business cnn.com

That's about as ridiculous as story as the Russian ruble (crashing) story they were seen reporting, just a few months ago.  Many sources 

As far as the rest of the rigged market, and crazy world goes, the next market mover could be the ECB on Wed. That would offer a 2 day trading window, ahead of the 4th of July weekend.  

Friday is the 1st trading day of July, ahead of a shortened week, and since the bears are trapped, I would expect them to remain trapped. 

I forget which stock I saw up nearly 20% yesterday, and this is the dash for trash - albeit a little late - that I've tried to warn the bears was coming weeks ago!  



That's all for now, AA 

  


sss

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Sunday, June 26, 2022

Market Update 6/25/22 - Weekly Market Wrap-up

The Sector Rotation Continues 

The rotation out of the energy, and back into tech stocks, continued last week. 

Of course, I've been anticipating this for a while, and I even alerted my paying members to the fact that I was short energy, just before the crash. Conversely, I've remained bullish tech, even at the lower lows, we were trading at two weeks ago.  

 As I explained in my last blog, I rely on the calendar to time market cycles, and Friday was no exception. This was the last Friday of the quarter, not to mention, weekly Options Expiration (OPEX), and here comes yet another Holiday - The 4th of July - and the short sellers are just beginning to feel the pain. What does this mean for the coming week? Probably more of the same. 

How many times do I have to tell folks not to sell into a holiday? Even this so called "bear market" sell-off - that we've seen over the past several months - didn't start until after the holidays!  

Believe me, the market makers don't need any help from the Plunge Protection Team!  Money needed to be put to work, ahead of the summer break, and bullish hedge fund managers need to show that they are invested in - you got it - BIG TECH!  

Energy  - Down 17% in June. That's a biggest decline we've seen in energy, since the crash of 2020.  

$XOP Energy - the final reversal was called as shown. Down on heavier than normal volume. 


Energy takes the stairs up, and the escalator down.

Where are all the con artists who just 2 - 3 weeks ago were being featured on Bloomberg, talking about "cash flow"? Looks like they skipped town, the moment they finished selling their shares to the retail investor.   

You can tell exactly how long they've been planning this dump, by looking at the buying volume spiking on $ERY (Leveraged Energy Bear ETF) around the end of May, early June.  


See the volume spiking around the beginning of the month? 


June 10th, the alert was put out




Looking back at Friday's short squeeze in High beta: 

You know, how I know, that this was a professional hit job, on the short sellers, aka a bear trap? 
$SPHB (High Beta ETF) - they raising the bid just above resistance, at Friday's open, taking out their stops. 
 

$SPX - 15 min chart view - similar thing as above. Opening bid raised above the trading range.



I see examples of this kind of Wall Street dirty tricks, heading into many holidays, so this is nothing new, and the bears seem to fall for it every time! 

Of course much of what I call out on Twitter is for entertainment purposes:

When I shared the 3X Home builders chart with Jon Najarian, it was only to prove he is wrong, nearly every time he opens his mouth!  In fact he's wrong so often, I'm starting to believe, that he is using his guest appearances on CNBC, as an opportunity to scam the public?  

Thursday June 23rd:

 

$NAIL - 2 days later - up 25%! 

 


Getting back to the energy trade 

Why does the overwhelmingly bearish #FinTwit community complain about SPY rallying, instead of just selling the Energy sector? I'll tell you why... it's because, if they don't even have a handle on the easiest trade in the world, then they certainly aren't equipped to trade Energy.   

It takes a lot of time, and energy to, to to trade energy markets (pun intended), and one of the reasons for that is that there isn't an energy related $VIX. There is the $OVX (oil $VIX), but that is even more rigged than the $VIX itself. To give you an idea... Even with the massive declines we've seen in Oil, and the $USO taken down, below the 50 day moving average, the $OVX still ended down for the week. 

So how do I time energy markets, without a corresponding $VIX, to guide me? 

I have several energy charts working, because 1 isn't enough. You got the $XOP. 2. The Oil and Gas drillers 3. The $DJUSEN. 4. The $GJX ($SPX Energy). 5. The leveraged ETF charts. 6. Energy ETF's i.e. $CRAK, and the $OIH, not to mention the $IXE. 7 Individual sector drivers like $XOM. 8. Oil and Gas, itself. 9. The calendar.  

Charting Energy markets is every bit as complicated as charting metals, and miners. It's something that; if I didn't enjoy it so much, you couldn't pay me to do it!   

Of course if I help you make a monster trade, like the several I just outlined above, tips are appreciated, but it's just too much distraction, to sell memberships, and too distracting to try please everybody, all the time. For instance, you couldn't pay me enough to focus on the SPY trade, if that means missing out on a 25% move in $NAIL, or energy.   

Now the question which everybody wants to know the answer to: Can this rally continue? 

I think it can, but probably not in a straight line.   

1. Traders had a reason to buy on Friday, but most brokers have already closing their books for the quarter. Maybe we see window dressing come right off, and money NOT put to work again, until after the 4th, or even after traders begin to return from summer break, in Sept, another window dressing month! 

2. I actually got spooked when I started creating some new short term charts, on Friday, and thinking about AG Merrick Garkand's recent telegraphed visit to Ukraine. What is the real reason for going there, and what are they planning, a Syrian style false flag? Is this a wag the dog moment? Anything to distract from the real problems, and a long list of failures coming out of Washington, not to mention $5 gas.  

AG Merrick Garland visits Ukraine in meeting with top prosecutor leading war crimes inquiry

3. We haven't broken out of the bearish trend, even on a 30 min. chart, and the $VIX remains highly elevated! 




4. As dumb as the short sellers are, trying to sell into a holiday, the stupid machines buy moving averages, like the 50 month moving average on the $XHB home builders. Is that long term bullish? No. 

5.  The DOW and several other markets have broken down out of the sideways range we used to be trading in, and have now traded into a bearish leading diagonal triangle. 

Note: I'm going to be starting a new series on triangle patterns, so be sure to subscribe to this channel, as well as my weekly news letter (still in the works), and rest assured I will never share your personal information. 

6. Another thing I don't like about this rally, is that it was pumped on the last Friday of the quarter. 

The easy money may have already been made, and this is why I alerted people to what I saw coming weeks ago! That was the time to make a donation to the website, and join us at the private twitter feed.  

Major resistance on the $SPX is 3950, but there are several things to watch, other than just the $SPX. 

This week will probably be slow, as traders go on vacation for the summer, and next week - a 4 day trading week - will be even slower. 

I'll have further updates as things progress, and volume starts to pick up again. 

Take Care, AA 


 

 

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Tuesday, June 21, 2022

Market Update 6/21/22 - What Is #FinTwit? Exposing The Scam Of The Century

In case you missed it: 

Yesterday, I wrapped up Part 3 in our series on capitulation. 2. Confirmed our target on Bitcoin. 3. Began to expose the FinTwit community for what it truly is, a network packed with scammers, bots, and sharks. Elon Musk Knows this, and we'll be getting into that subject in a subsequent blog.     

Today, I'm going to begin by offering up some pretty convincing evidence, that Twitter is a scam network, and because I have so much material to work with, this new series could go on for some time. 

Last week, we saw stocks washout below key support, yet stocks remained pinned in the bottom of the range, on June OPEX, ahead of yet another (trading) holiday weekend. Markets were closed on Monday, so we could all be forced to observe what could be called, "white guilt day" - otherwise known as "Juneteenth". It's not enough we have to solute the rainbow flag all month, but now this?!  

Of course this is just another attempt to try to equate ones race, with someone's sexual orientation (a term you don't hear anymore, because it doesn't fit the official narrative), in order to call ones sexuality "a civil rights issue", but this is nothing more than Orwellian style, brainwashing, for the masses. 

Why not just cancel Columbus Day, and Christmas while you're at it, and we'll substitute 2 more woke holidays, just to satisfy 2% of the populations beliefs, and pander to so called minority voters, who actually should be offended by such pandering.   

I have no problem with black people, or gay people, but these pushy liberals, who get a sick thrill out of playing politics with peoples lives, and livelihood (freedom), can go straight to hell, but I digress!  

What really ticks me off, is that with all the technology we have at our finger tips it's hard to find a good calendar app! Yahoo financial calendar doesn't even mention "Junteenth"!  I mean, I knew the date was coming up, but I did not know that Biden actually signed it into law, and that Wall Street participants will from this day forward, be forced to genuflect at the alter of political correctness!

 It's not even a gd holiday in most states, and even after I found out that the market would be close, I could find little to no information about how this would affect me locally. "Would the garbage be collected as usual on Monday, or would I have to wait until Tuesday, to put the cans out", I wondered.   

Here's the real reason I'm upset over this Junteenth holiday 

 I actually use the calendar to help me time the market; I specifically look for long holiday weekends, because so often, this is where we find market turning points, and especially when OPEX dates coincide with a 3 day (market holidays), so this fake holiday weekend caught me a little off guard. 

Anyhow, better late than never, and the bullish reversal seems to be confirmed, right on schedule! 1 day after another rigged Options Expiration! How many in a row, is that now? 

What Is #FinTwit?  Exposing The Scam Of The Century  

My initial take on the fintwit community was that it was full of useful idiots, who can only be used as contrarian indicators, but I'm starting to believe that very few of these twitter accounts are real. They're bots (fake accounts) propagating false information, in order to suck in a few gullible retail investors.

Of course there are a few real investors who get caught up in the hype. These people call themselves "apes"   The phrase “apes together strong” originally comes from the movie “Rise of the Planet Apes,” but has since become popular stock trading slang? I got this information, from a not so credible source, so I'm not going to give any credit....  This phrase apparently started on Reddit financial boards, yet I could find no evidence to support that assertion. I wasn't even able to find a trading community on Reddit, the last time I looked. 

I can't help think back to the final FAANG (Tech), and meme stocks pump last year, not to mention, Crypto, Gold, and most recently Energy and Oil. Pump and dump markets have become the new norm, but this is nothing new, as I'll explain....   

 Of course it's easy to employ an army of bots to trend whatever you like on the internet, and we know trends often go to the highest bidder. Who's to say the hedgefunds aren't paying Twitter to trend certain financials topics, in order to create a new generation of suckers?   

This type of swindling of investors has been going on, since before the internet even existed. See the movie Boiler Room! This film depicts a shady brokerage house, who sells bogus stocks to unsuspecting investors. Who do you think buys all those worthless IPOs..? 

 In the early days of the internet, all we had was yahoo financial boards, and it would infuriated me to see investors constantly bamboozled, and today history repeats itself with a whole new generation of "investors", who follow like lemmings off the cliff.   

$AMC - "320 tweets in the past hour" 

Gains today -.88% on an otherwise big risk on day 

Sharks In The Water    

If you're a regular on Twitter, as I am, then I'm sure you've seen the continued interest in meme stock $AMC....  Is this really what people are interested in trading, and is there any proof that any of these so called "meme stocks", originated on Reddit boards. I have found little real interest by real traders, in this name, yet $AMC continues to trend.   

The vast majority of traders I see on Twitter, seem to have no interest in trades that are working, while the most ridiculous charts I've ever seen, including the one below, continue to get 200 likes?! Are we supposed to believe that this is what the majority of investors are really interested in? I don't buy it! 

Sharks In The Water 

 If you follow my twitter feed closely, then you probably saw me call out these scammers, first thing Friday morning: 

1. Firstly the comparison trying to be made between 2008, and today, are not even remotely relevant! 

2. Only to the untrained eye, does the 2007-08 crash begin with a triangle pattern. 

And don't just believe what I'm saying; explore this thread, and compare these chart patterns for yourself, and make up your own mind!  

But wait there's more! 

Crypto Crash  continues to trend on twitter, and "always proud Bloomberg News", even continued to try to talk it down over the weekend; as they were seen reporting that Bitcoin was "having trouble, holding $20k". I'm not sure what having trouble means, but why not report that the DOW is having trouble holding 30k? Remember in the last update I documented that former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton compared Bitcoin investors to terrorists?  

Yeah, well, and here she is spewing her propaganda on none other than Bloomberg. 


I have plenty more to share in the next update, so be sure to subscribe to this channel. 

Take Care, AA 



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Monday, June 20, 2022

Market Update 6/20/22 - Capitulation - Part 3

Market Capitulation - Part 3 

Hopefully I can finally wrap up our series on Market Capitulation, or what might have been more accurately entitled, "Is Market Capitulation Really Necessary In Order To Find A Market Bottom"?  

 I could hardly wait to finish this blog over the weekend, after Bitcoin took out the target I laid out in Friday morning's update, but then I got bogged down writing extensively about #FinTwit (Financial Twitter) which is clearly a financial scam, being perpetuated against the retail investor, by a group of hedge funds. This explains why the most idiotic topics in the world, the worst stocks, and the worst charts, receive the most attention.  

According to CNBC "#FinTwit, stands for financial Twitter, an online community that primarily uses the social network to discuss investing (August 30, 2019). 

This truly is, "the age of deception" (quoting myself), and technology has made it possible to deceive the masses on a grand scale, indeed!  

The level of financial deception I've discovered on Twitter, is so absolutely mind blowing, that it deserves a series of it's own, and since this series on capitulation began with CNBC pushing the idea that capitulation is necessary, in order to find a market bottom, and then seeing the same propaganda trending - by no coincidence - on Twitter, I've gone down a rabbit hole and I can't seem to crawl back out of! I've been writing all weekend, and after several attempts to break this update up, into separate parts, I'm only left pulling my hair out... and now here it is Monday evening, almost dinner time!

 So, I plan to try to wrap up this series, before I expose Twitter, and Fin Twit, in another series. Believe me, you won't want to miss any of it, so please subscribe....    

In Part 2 of our series on Capitulation, I mentioned bearish sentiment, and oversold indicators, and while it is important to see these indicators reaching oversold, and overly bearish, extremes, at a market bottom, the topic at hand is capitulation, which means a giving up, which is evidenced by a $VIX spiking off the chart, and a whoosh sound, as retail investors finally panic out of their positions. Even though, many times this process is a result of stop losses being taken out, rather than real investor fear causing panic selling. This is the reason you see the lower channel, I showed you last week, being taken out, just ahead of June OPEX, and another long holiday weekend. 

Of course capitulation can also happen in a bull market, as the short sellers give up, and this is why you see stocks pumped to new all time highs, only to be dumped shortly thereafter, as we finally see happening in the energy space. Remember; this is all a game, to steal investors money. This is the real purpose of trying to cause capitulation, on both sides, and Jon Nargarian, and others like him, think retail investors are to dumb to see the oldest game in the book, coming from a mile away. 

We DID see the market gap down a couple times last week, and even break critical support, but what we did not see is panic selling.  We also haven't seen higher $VIX highs. We also see several markets rallying, while others are selling off. For instance Biotech was up over 6% on Friday! China also remains up, way up! I'll bet you never heard any of that reported, neither did we see these topics trending on twitter! But there I go again, and this is a topic for another series!    

The fact that this doesn't look like you're typical capitulation bottom, and I've charted enough of them - in real time - to know exactly what one usually looks like, should document once and for all, that you don't need to see capitulation in the form of a final "WHOOSH" in order to find a bottom. 

Of course, we saw this kind of capitulation, before the monster rally we caught in China, and we've seen capitulation in tech stocks, and crypto, but we have not seen capitulation in the broader US market, and I don't expect to....    

Without getting too technical, the pullback we've seen over the past several months, has been very orderly, and I believe that's because it was totally engineered, by a corrupt federal reserve, working along side, the crooked banks, and their hedge funds. This is what hedge funds do after all, they hedge your loses. As markets sell off, they make money, and this is all planned months in advance, just as it was when Goldman Sachs started quietly betting against the US housing market, just ahead of the 2007-2008 crash. That's right:  Goldman Sachs Secretly Bet On The Housing Crash (many sources). 

More on the engineered pullback....  

1. This explains why the fed has done very little to fight inflation, other than talk about it, and they remain way "behind the curve", and I believe there's a very good reason for that. They have no intention of further tightening! In fact quite the opposite. They will continue to print historic amounts of money in order to keep the (ponzi market) dream alive.    

2. This explains why we haven't seen higher $VIX numbers, which would be a sure sign of real fear in the market, and true capitulation. Walking back an over bought market 3% at a time, while continuing to hammer the $VIX, doesn't count....  We know the market can sell-off more than 3% - in a panic - when the controllers allow it to, but this market was walked down, on a lower $VIX.         

3. It was also their intent to take crypto markets down, and this is evidence by the public statements made by deep state scumbags like Hillary Clinton!  I'll spare you, her tweets, but she lumps together Trump supporters, with crypto investors, and terrorists. I think most former government officials are smart enough to keep their mouths shut, when it comes to their true intent, but not crooked Hillary!   

As I've already pointed out we've seen capitulation in China, Crypto, and Tech, and I have the charts to prove it. Highest selling volume in history seen in the tech sector last month! That doesn't mean we're going to see the same thing on the $SPX, and I think that point will be proven very shortly.  

I think we could be off to the races as soon as tomorrow Technical Tuesday, but with this rigged market, a month is like a day, and a lot of the timing depends, on when the controller are planning to pull the plug again. You can bet that they intend to rally into the end of the year, in order to help the fascists regime, already in power. 

I think there could be a speed bump, along the way, but this should be good trading at least! 

Don't miss the next blog series in which I plan to expose the deception taking place, under the #FinTwit banner!  

GL, AA 



   


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Friday, June 17, 2022

Market Market Update 6/17/2022 - Looking at Capitulation in Bitcoin

This update is going to be brief, and this series on Capitulation is going to have to continue at a later date. 

BitCoin continues to plummet, and like I said in yesterday's update, I'd like to confirm the reversal before calling the bottom.  

Since the global markets seem to be following bitcoin - which is in itself is a little scary, and #Bitcoin along with #CoinBase continues to trend on twitter, I want to remain focused on this market. 

$GBTC - this the most reliable way of charting bitcoin, that I have found. The target is easy to remember 12.22. 


Could see a washout below my blue line, but I would still be a buyer there. Use stops, don't take unlimited losses. Have a plan! 

 I also updated the NASDAQ chart - located in the public charts area - and added some annotations so you can see what's really going on there. This just looks like another washout, heading into OPEX, and another long weekend, as I tweeted out earlier. 


 


I'm out of time. 

GL, AA 



GL, AA 

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Thursday, June 16, 2022

Market Update 6/16/22 - Capitulation - Part 2

Picking up from where we left off in Part 1 of this series on identifying capitulation - Link to Capitulation Part 1 

In Yesterday's update, we touched on what capitulation is, the terminology, and some of the psychological indicators, one of which is and overly bearish (or bullish) main stream media. 

When you see headlines that are bearish, and calling for a recession, or worse, and even Fox news is reporting on the latest market sell-off, that's a good indication that sentiment is overwhelmingly bearish, and that means a sentiment reversal is very likely. 

Once the bad news is reported by the lame stream media, you can consider it, "priced in".   

Sentiment Indicators 

I use certain sentiment indicators to spot bearish sentiment, as we'll as oversold conditions, and I can tell you that bearish sentiment is at new recent lows, with less than 20% of stocks trading above their respective 200 day moving average. Of course this makes perfect sense, considering that the rug continues to be pulled, it seems like every other Friday, and that's usually been met with another Monday morning surprise to the downside, but regardless of the planning that goes into these seemingly endless bear raids, at some point the bad news is all priced in, or the powers that be, decide it's time to drive the market up, in yet another short squeeze.    

Today is a little different, as we see market futures being taken down on a Thursday!   

Of course these sentiment indicators could turn far more bearish than what we've seen, but the only real news, we've seen is the fear that the fed is going to cause a recession. Of course there's the Russia situation, and rising energy prices, and that is compounding the inflation problem. There are a lot of what-ifs, and the market doesn't like uncertainty, but at some point investors become overly bearish, and capitulate (give up), and that's where you see market sentiment change, and it at this point, you see historic counter-trend rallies, like we saw in 08. 

The crash of 07 - '08, was marked by several historic counter-trend rallies. This was good trading for those who didn't allow their bearishness to get in the way of their trade. This is what market timing is all about. Sure, I could draw a big audience by blathering on and on about how bearish I am, and I've done that in the past, but at the end of the day, the bulls usually win.   

Sure, at some point we will see a cyclical bear market, and even the collapse of global markets, entirely, but probably not for at least a few more years.  


  Back to these historic counter trend rallies - see the above Dow chart 

That was back when the DOW was trading around 12 - 14k, and a thousand point move on the DOW was a big percentage move. 

Compare that to today's dow chart, and trading in a highly reactive, and emotional market?  

I think could easily see a 4000 point move on the DOW! Especially given the time of year. Volume is about to dry up, and the smart short sellers have already left for summer vacation. What's left is mostly retail short sellers; not the sharpest tools in the shed.  


Am I bullish? No, but I know the market doesn't move in a straight line.   

What about tech, because like I said yesterday - in Part 1 - "this is one of the only places, where we've seen real capitulation".  

Technology Stocks - I can confirm that we're finally seeing capitulation in the technology sector, given the spike in selling volume, last month. Of course the hot shots at CNBC are looking for a massive 1 day sell-off, but I think that's unlikely.  


  Think the NASDAQ can't rally 1000 points. with all the cash sitting on the sidelines, and a long summer break coming? Believe me, I have my doubts, but even in a "bear market", the NASDAQ could retest 14k level, at the top of the failed channel. 

$COMPQ - NASDAQ - Again see last months selling volume? 
Watch for a test of the 50 month moving average, as soon as this morning. 
By the way, never use a QQQ chart to trade the NASDAQ. I see people doing this all the time, and they should know an ETF doesn't provide accurate targets. The target, on a retest of the upper channel looks like a 30% snap-back rally to the 14.2k level, as soon as August.  


 

BitCoin is another place we saw real capitulation, so that's a buy!   

In yesterday's update I admitted I've been wrong about bitcoin, in the past, but I was wrong again yesterday, when I told folks, not to attempt to bottom pick BitCoin. Although it is good to confirm a bottom, before investing in anything, rather than catching a falling knife, but I'm officially reversing my outlook for BitCoin, and it's not because I'm fully invested. I have no stake in BitCoin, and nothing to gain by recommending it!  

  Since the global markets seem to be following bitcoin - which is in itself is a little scary, and #Bitcoin along with #CoinBase continues to trend on twitter, I want to remain focused on this market, and reveal a very important chart, but not until the reversal, is absolutely confirmed.

I'm out of time!  

Check back for that Bitcoin chart, as soon as tomorrow, in Part 3! 

GL, AA 


  




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Wednesday, June 15, 2022

Market Update 6/15/22 - Capitulation - Part 1

 Yesterday was crazy! I started this blog on Tuesday and never was able to finish it... 

First off: NatGas finally pukes! 

I kinda knew more bad news was coming, and not because I have any insider information, but because I figured the damage at the Freeport facility was probably much worse than first reported, and that the timeline to restore LNG shipments was going to be revised, and that prediction made me a hell of a lot of money, yesterday! 

I recommended #NatGas, as a buy after yesterday's capitulation, but I'm not actually long myself.   

Speaking of "capitulation" 

1. If you don't know what capitulation is, you probably shouldn't be trading anything with real money, because capitulation points are where you typically find market tops, and market bottoms.  

Here's a short sweet explanation of what capitulation looks like:


2. Without revealing all of my secrets to recognizing capitulation points, and because it would take several thousand words to even scratch the surface...  I can tell you that experienced traders look for volume, to confirm the shaking out of the weak hands. I touched on this in a recent update, after Jon Najarian said he was "looking for volume...." 

You'll also hear experienced traders talk about the final "whoosh", aka shakeout. This is capitulation, and you'll see the same thing at a market tops, where most the bears finally give up. This is the whole reason the bulls drive worthless stocks, and entire markets, to new highs, only to turn around and sell them to zero, as they did, the oil futures market, just a couple of years ago. Today, you hear these criminals claim that the Energy sector has the most value, and if you believe that nonsense, I have a bridge in Chicago to sell you!    

Capitulation seems to be the most overused word on Twitter lately, and it seems the #FinTwit community has run with the Bloomberg narrative, because I saw the same thing being reported there, yesterday. Of course I had the sound off, as usual, but that's what I saw them chattering about, yesterday morning. 

As far as capitulation points go, this one was pretty darn weak, although I did call it "pretty convincing", on Friday 

   Once again, I'm way ahead of the Wall Street narrative, and that's why you see me winning. 

3. Capitulation points should be marked by breadth, and the fact that we saw such a dramatic bearish reversal in energy stocks helped...  

As I said, last week, "you can't have one sector continue to make higher highs, while the rest of the market continues to make lower lows". And now you see the re-balancing, and probably a sector rotation, out of energy, and back into tech, because this is one of the only places, where we've seen real capitulation. Technology!  

I'll attempt to prove that in tomorrow's update, and I only say attempt, because I'm still having some serious computer problems. That makes 2 catastrophic crashes in a week!   

This blog has already run too long, but find out where else we've seen capitulation in Part 2 of this update.

Take Care, AA 

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Monday, June 13, 2022

Market Update 6/13/2022 - Crypto Crashing Again & Taking The Rest Of The Market With It

Today's update may seem a little busy, but I got a lot on my mind, and I'm a little short on sleep.

We're looking at a pretty dismal looking Futures Market, on this Monday morning. Looks like a coordinated take-down of Bitcoin, and Ethereum.... and that doesn't surprise me, one bit, after Max Keiser himself, invited me to chat on telegram, over the weekend.... As you may, or may not know, I'm a long time fan , of Max, and I've linked to several of his YouTube videos.   

I warned him several weeks ago that he has a target on his back, which I'm sure he already knows..!      

Max has a new Crypto venture he's been working on, and you may want to check that out, if you're interested in that market, and I receive no compensation for mentioning it. 

In case you didn't know it, I closed down our private twitter feed @3XTradersLive, until further notice. Thanks to everyone who signed up for the first month!  Even though I got the market direction correct at nearly every turn, over the past few weeks, and I even called out several sector rallies...; there just doesn't seem to be as much interest in timing the broader market, as there used to be. I'm not really sure what the deal is with that, but I suspect that because there's so much interest in meme stocks, Crypto, and FX markets,  there's less interest in trading the boring #SPY, and I find myself branching out into alternative markets more and more lately. myself.   

It's hard to get a good idea of just how popular these alternative trades have become, but I'm seeing Crypto updates on YouTube getting over 70k views in less than 24 hrs, and I should probably dust off the YouTube Channel, and start vlogging updates there!  

To be honest I've always known Crypto is a scam, but that belief has caused me to miss out on 10000% gains. That's a missed opportunity to trade, whether the market has any real value or not. I time markets, not based on valuation, but the direction of the herd (psychology), and other metrics.

Another reason I shut down the private twitter feed: 

I don't really have the patients to a lot of hand holding, or micromanaging trades, but there are plenty of services already doing that. I pretty much like focusing on my own trades, helping others when I can. I've also been looking into affiliate marketing, and I think that could be a good way to point new investors in the right direction, while making a few extra bucks myself.  

2. There are so many new technologies popping up, that it's hard to stay on top of them. From stock screeners to Robots (algorithmic trading programs/systems)

3. There are a lot of get rich scams, and sharks in the water, and that pretty-much goes with the territory, and I want no part of that! I'm not going to recommend something I don't fully understand, and don't feel good about, and I prefer to check it out myself, before recommending it to others. That's called "integrity".   

In fact I have a line on something exciting, I hope to be able to share with you shortly! 

The Broader Market

 At this point I can pretty-much time the $SPX with one hand tied behind my back, and the target I laid out last week, and the week before, was to remain bearish until the $VIX snapped back. 

Just last week, on Monday June 6th, I told my paying members, that we were "watching $VIX 25, and 26, support. We're not out of the woods as far a fear is concerned. Not by a long shot."

And here we are already pushing above $VIX 30 again.

As I said on Friday, "I don't see the selling looking anything like we saw in May, and this still looks like a retest, or a back-test, or just another Monday morning shakeout. I pulled the trigger on some sector stocks on Friday, and I'm not the least bit worried... and that's because the $VIX continues to trend lower - after hitting 36.64 in May.

Of course reactionary investors are going to be freaked out when they see futures down another 2% this morning, but futures don't always matter, and nobody in their right mind is going short ahead of a fed announcement.  

Energy 

We're not seeing much of an unwind in Energy stocks, yet I think we can confirm the reversal, and that's gotta be weighing on markets, now that "there's no safe place left to hide". Seems like everything is down, except for the $USD, and that's what normally happens in a deflationary environment, not inflationary. It seems like the fed is more interesting in defending the $USD, than taming inflation, and this is why they need to destroy Crypto, and manipulate the gold market. 


BitCoin 

The time to get out of Bitcoin was when the $28k level broke, and I could see it going as low as 11k. I wouldn't be tryiung to bottom pick here! 

I've already run out of time, and seems like I was only able to scratch the surface. 

Catch you later, AA 



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Thursday, June 9, 2022

Market Update June 9th, 2022 - Flash Crash In NatGas, Is Oil Next?

Flash Crash In NatGas, Is Oil Next? 

Off topic: I had no problem booting up the ol' computer this morning, and that reduces my stress level Fingers crossed, until I finally break down, and pay through the nose, for a next generation platform. 

AMD talks next-gen Zen 4 CPUs, Ryzen 7000, Socket AM5, and more techspot.com

On Topic: 

First - To answer the clickbait question I pose in the this mornings title, because I knew this would cause some excitement in the FinTwit community No, and no.... 

Sorry to burst your bubble, but the trend on Natural Gas remains very much up!  

While I'm happy to see the manipulators of Energy finally get hosed, and lose all the gains of the past week; and especially when they gapped it up on a Monday, and then went so far as to raise (rig) yesterday's opening bid on $UNG, just above the previous high; But at the end of the day this just looks like a gap fill, and the trolls - being paid by hedge funds to dispute that sound technical analysis @ #NatGas (hashtag/ topic) - on twitter - confirm it! 

Here I am calling them out... and they don't like that! lol 


I used to get upset at the trolls, but now I just use them as contrarian indicators, or at least as an indicator of who's really behind these types of events.   

Yes, it was a significant move, even for NatGas, but when you see these trolls. posting 5 minute charts... in order to make this 7% move, seem way bigger than it is that's a tell tale sign, that there are sharks in the water. How do I know this for a fact? Because you never see these people posting NatGas charts any other time! They aren't technicians, they're trolls. 

$UNG - 5 min view - tells you absolutely nothing, but looks scary to most retail traders. This is the whole point... to shake you out, and keep you shaken out until weekly options expire (tomorrow). 


Freeport LNG plant blast adds to strain on global supplies reuters


I usually trust Reuters, but I'm looking forward to finding out the details about this so called explosion? No calling this a "false flag", or anything, but since all the controllers, and the money printers, do is lie to the public, all news is suspect.   

Of course CNBC World Wide Exchange didn't even report the mini-crash  in Natural Gas - at least at the open, which is all I watch, is the first 20 seconds, before deleting that worthless show - instead they chose to report that "Oil", and Energy, and more specifically, "Natural Gas", are going "higher", and that "tech continues to sell-off". Totally fabricated news, designed to steal your money! I mean, Natural Gas breaks support, and crashes 7 percent in 5 minutes, on the heaviest selling volume we've seen in months, and you don't even report the story. What are investors to believe? 

Of course higher energy prices are designed to help sell more electric vehicles, and a new green power grid, and the corporations who are behind this green scam, are on the same page as the criminals posing as our elected officials in Washington DC, are....  

I'm amazed... I shouldn't be amazed that the lame stream media chooses to report fiction over fact, but they have a job to do, and that's to help keep energy prices high, in order to push the "Green New Deal".   

 Let's go to the charts, because at the end of the day, you really can't even trust this story coming out of Freeport, anymore than you can trust that a few bad apples drawn to the capital on Jan. 6th, qualifies as an "insurrection", or that planes flown into sky scrapers, qualifies as a modern day Pearl Harbor.        

I'm not going to reveal the LT trend on Natural Gas, but I can tell you that short term support on NatGas looks like 26.50 on the $UNG. 

 


If you need more NatGas targets, I got 'em. "I'm willing to cover NatGas for entire month for $300, if you're interested; simply use the PayPal link in the side menu and IM me. 

As far as the rest of the market, I did throw out a free $VIX chart ahead of yesterday's close, and I even told you where the $VIX was sold last week. Anyone who's still bearish at this point, simply hasn't been paying attention, or still believes the market moves based on reality.  

As long as the $VIX continues to be manipulated, you remain bullish. 

I've run out of time! 

Take Care, and good luck next week AA 

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Wednesday, June 8, 2022

Urgent Market Update 6/8/22 - The Top in Energy Stocks, and continued $VIX manipulation

 WOW, what a morning! I had some kind of catastrophic computer crash, at startup, and didn't think I was going to be able to get window to load, but here I am.... 

 The market continues to trade like crap, as predicted a week - or so - ago - but I wan't to point out why it can't correct, until the controllers allow it to correct, and the timing probably has something to do with the options market, as usual. 

$VIX - Continues to be hammered below the 50 day moving average.

 


Funny, I see otherwise intelligent people on twitter, claim that the market has "shrugged off", this, or that, when it's so obvious, that the market is once again, being manipulated on light summer volume. 

As usual I'm not going to help the crooked hedge funds, by offering predictions or targets, but I just wanted to show that the market is being walked like a dog. 

$NYA (NYSE) trades into a little upturned triangle pattern. You won't find this on the $SPX chart. 


As far as the Energy trade goes, I don't have a problem offering plenty of charts, and predictions, as I continue to do on my regular twitter account all day long.  

$XOP breaks out above the top of the channel, in what looks like a parabolic rise, to most traders. 

This is exactly what tech did, so this could continue for a little while longer. 


How much longer? I don't know, but I would expect another retest of the highs as soon as this morning, and maybe the momentum can carry it a little higher, into yet another manipulated, weekly, Options Expiration Friday. 


I'm thinking this could look like the overshoot in Oil markets, back in March, which lasted around 5-6 days - See the $USO chart below, and see how Oil continues to hold up months later. 


Throw-overs, and shakeouts are routine in commodities based trades, and more traders don't have the stomach for it. 

$NATGAS - retests the highs for the 3rd time. Think it can't hit $10 on light summer volume, now that the short sellers away, at their summer homes? 



Of course it can... and it can go even higher than that! Look back at the short squeeze in NatGas in 2005! 


 Oil drillers have only bounced back to a lower high, as has oil, and since all the hedge funds are talking up oil, that can only mean one thing; they have been unloading their energy holdings to the retail investor. I mean, where were these hedge funds encouraging the retail investor, when oil contracts traded to below 0?  

$OIH (oil drillers) trade into a complicated bearish consolidation pattern 

I think the thing to watch is Brent crude oil futures, which is trading in a nice parallel channel, unlike Texas crude.  



Take care, 

AA 






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Tuesday, June 7, 2022

Is Oil really going to "remain high for years to come"?

 This is what I'm hearing the idiot, hosts, on Bloomberg repeat, on a daily basis, and I have to ask myself, "what do these talking heads know about the direction of oil"? 

 Then it finally occurs to me this morning, that what they're really doing is pushing "the green new deal", because if the price of Oil remains high, then that makes green look more affordable, right? Of course...! 

Another thing the lame stream media @ Bloomberg is obsessed with is the Elon Musk twitter deal not going through, and my chart has told me from the beginning, that this deal was never going to happen, in the first place. The deep state doesn't want free speech in social media, since limiting free speech though the use of new technology is one of their greatest weapons!

If you're been following me for any length of time, you've seen the twitter chart.  Yet, another, in a long list of pump n dump stocks. 

   



 As far as the broader market, it continues to trade like crap, and as I tweeted yesterday, this could continue for some time.  

Today is technical Tuesday, so maybe we see the market pull back, but we may have to wait for an august swoon, or the fed, or some other manufactured news story... 

Energy continues to hold up, so certain former penny stocks can continue to make new recent highs 

$AMPY - trades in line with Energy. Classic pump n dump 


Add that one to the death-watch list 

Natural Gas continues to retest the recent highs 


Seeing a right shoulder developing at the $9.40 on the live futures chart  


It seems like traders, more and more - whenever possible - like to take out the previous high, before dumping their long positions. See the Twitter chart, above. New high, followed by a crash.  

I tweeted last week, that I thought the natgas bulls were continuing to beat a dead horse, after their target - at the top of the triangle fell short, and I think that's exactly what's going on.  

$UNG - shows where the target - at the top of the triangle fell short




Once the top is confirmed, and you see NatGas crashing, don't expect me to continue covering it!  I like to lay low, once a top. or bottom - for that matter - comes in, just as I did after the reversal in gold miners, all the way back in April. 

$GDX - top predicted in April - gold bugs and hedge funds called out! 


 

There's that right shoulder on NatGas being sold! 


That's about it for today, and I plan to reveal more pump n dump schemes in the future

Wheat for instance - pumped - to a new high - and dumped. 


Later, AA 




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Monday, June 6, 2022

6/6/22 - Market Wrap-up & A Look Ahead

Market has been trading pretty-much as I predicted last week. We did however catch another monster rally in Dow tech stocks, on Thursday! 

$FDN was up over 5%, and the 3X bull $WEBL up 16%!

$ARK also tweeted out to paying members @3XTradersLive - on June 2nd. 

I prefer not to reveal those charts 

"$ARK ($TARK) also continues to trend up - probably into a little upturned triangle pattern. $26 by the end of next week imho"



While it didn't hit $26 is was up big on Thursday, and I was right about the triangle pattern.


As far as the rest of the market, it has continued to hold up in a range for the past week.

Friday we finally saw a little pullback, but as soon as it reached 4100 on the $SPX, the $VIX was hammered, in order to rig the weekly options market.


Speaking of rigged options markets, energy managed to close at or near recent highs, again on Friday.

I think as long as investors continue to hide out in energy stocks, then tech isn't going to lead the market higher.

The commodities, so called, "super-cycle" trade, also needs to collapse in a heap, but you can see how long it can take to build a topping pattern. This can take months in some cases


Of course, there's not easy way to short commodities, but the bear funds for material stocks, and oil, and energy should do pretty well.

I mentioned $ERY, in an update last week, but there's also an oil drillers bear, and that sector looks toppy af!


I suppose BRENT Crude could retest the 128 level again, but I don't see it breaking out above the 2008 high. How can inflation be so bad, if Oil is still trading below 2008 levels?

I think the whole inflation story is overblown, and

Last week Bloomberg was reporting that oil was up 4 months in a row, and while that's true, they could have just as easily reported that it hasn't traded to a new high in 4 months.

$WTI - trades into a bear flag



The energy bulls claim Oil is going to continue to hold north of $100, so I'd expect buyers to come in there, and catch a falling knife.

I believe the crash we saw in oil 4 months ago, was only the first leg down, and I think we could see oil back around $50, before the end of the year.


Take care, and good luck

AA 






sss

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