Friday, March 20, 2015

Trading the $VIX

This blog on trading the $VIX was most recently updated [4/24/2018]

Trading the $VIX

A better title for this blog may have been, "Trading of the $VIX", because I don't recomend actually trading it, but rather using it as a guide, to help keep you on the right side of the trade. 

The $VIX is our #1 fear indicator. High $VIX = fear. Low $VIX = no fear (in the market). Pretty simple.

An oversold ($VIX) can be seen as complacency, and greed, which is bearish, and raises red flags to experienced traders, but usually a low $VIX only means that there's little fear in the market, and this is a good thing.

Exceptions: There are times when the market can continue to rally, despite a gentle rise in volatility (which is what the $VIX technically measures), but that's rare. 99% of the time, the $VIX is going to trade opposite the broader market.

A $VIX that breaks out above resistance, and continues to pop higher, always points to a risk off environment, and a rising $VIX should never be ignored. In fact it deserves a place in your tickers, and even a whole screen, durring times of high volatility.   

Charting the $VIX take some practice, and I can honestly say, after many years, I'm still learning... the $VIX trades like a sentiment indicator, so once it peaks out, it tends to reverse violently. Leveraged funds also trade like this, after a major reversal, giving back as much as 50% in a day. The best advice I can give you, on charting the $VIX, is to use trend lines, and watch certain universally accepted resistance levels like $VIX 20.

Without the $VIX it would be near impossible to determine market sentiment in real time, and if there's one thing I've learned over the past few years it's that what is important above all else is consistency.

The $VIX is technically a measure of market volatility, and volatility works both ways. At $VIX 10 the market hardly moves, while at $VIX 90 the market may swing 10%, or more, in only a few hours.

There are various ways to trade the $VIX, but I don't actually recommend trading the $VIX, and you can see what happened to traders, who were using the leveraged inverse fund to shorting the $VXY in early 2018, as the manipulators were wiped out in 1 day, as I explained in my most recent live interview on F.A.C.E.

Wednesday, March 18, 2015

Launch 3XTraders 2.0

Welcome back Traders,

It's time to dust-off this blog, and get y'all up to speed, and there's no better time than now!

There just hasn't been much to get excited about - marketwise - until now, but there are a couple more good reasons for my hiatus:

For those who don't know it, I used to have a private membership website, with a few loyal members, but it turned out to be more distraction than it was worth, and charging folks even a small fee to trade into a market bubble just wouldn't be right.

Closing the website was one of the best decisions I have ever made. because it has allowed me to hone my skills, with few distractions.

I also relocated a little over a year ago, and moving is disruptive, and it has taken some time to settle in and get adjusted. After I moved I attempted to re-launch this blog, but I found I was better off tweeting, and charting.

Twitter is the best place to exchange up to the minute information, and even blow off steam, when there's nothing better to do. If you don't have twitter; create an account, and follow my twitter [link] for the most up-to-date information. There are going to be times when we need to get more in-depth, and that's what this place is for. I'll direct you here, when I feel the need, and have the time, to blog, otherwise you can find me tracking the market in real time, on Twitter. Market forecasts often change in real time!

Feel free to ask questions here, rather than on Twitter, because distractions aren't helpful. There are times I look at opposing views, but usually it's only as a contrarian indicator. For that reason I seldom check twitter notifications during the trading day, and have been known to block people in the past. I understand, there are times, when it's hard separate your emotions from the trade, and I'm not always going to be right, but lots of opposing views are a distraction. 

In future blogs I plan to show you some of the most important market indicators, and techniques, I look at, to predict market movements, some of which - like the $VIX (our fear indicator) - you should be watching in real time, so you understand what I'm looking at, or why or I hold a certain market view.

More to follow,

Anthony Allyn