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Friday, July 27, 2018

Market Update, July 27th, 2018 - FaceBook - Best Call Of The Year

 Best Call Of The Year

The bearish reversal in Facebook shares, going into Earnings!


I can't seem to find the tweet were I called Wednesday's retest of the recent highs in twitter "bearish", but I was able to find the beat tweet that has the bearish chart embedded... Not only was this the best call of the year, but it was easy, and timed perfectly!

Look, If you don't know what to do at the top of the channel, then you shouldn't be trading.

Same could be said for the parallel channel on the $NDX (big tech) chart below. What's also bearish is the the way Wall Street investors are shrugging their shoulders at a historic, 1 day, $100b loss. That scream complacency! I'm not calling for a tech crash today, but the longer this continues, the worse it's going to be.... Could overshoot the top of the channel, or perhaps the channel is broadening, but I can assure you, my channel lines are parallel. 

This summer has provided some tremendous trading opportunities, as I laid out in my most recent Vlogs (video updates). 

1. Called the Market direction going into the summer, which turned out to be super easy...  knowing the $VIX would be crushed on low volume, as usual. The $VIX continue to trade below key resistance @ 14, and as long as that continues the broader market can continue high.
2. Called the most recent top in Oil (again), which turned out to be relatively easy, as well.  Also called the subsequent short squeeze... that still turned out to be a monster trade. Wish I had stuck with it longer! Also caught the bearish reversal in Natural Gas, which proved to be a bit of a challenge.

3. Called the breakout in Apple, ahead of the "Buffet effect", one of my best calls this year. That trade was based on textbook Elliott Wave theory, and I should really do a followup video.... Find the original video that predicted the breakout, below.

4. Called a nice reversal in FAANG stocks, which resulted in a couple nice bearish trades in the 3X leveraged inverse fund. I also called the following swing trade, back into FAANG, calling the short trade "dead in the water".   

5. Yesterday's bearish call on FaceBook. The technicals worked perfectly, and no waiting... going into an earnings miss. As I mentioned above: This is probably my best call so far this year, because of the 1 day percentage gains, and due to the fact that calling tops is always difficult, and nearly impossible to time.

Just goes to show you don't a business degree, or even a series 7, to beat the market like a rented mule! All it takes is. 1. knowledge, most of which is  widely available free on the internet. 2. Experience. 3. Charting skills. 

RE: The Public Charts area, I've since taken the PCA down, for a couple reasons. 1. Until the YouTube channel takes off, folks aren't finding the public charts, and that results in a lack of support. I'm 100% crowd funded, by the way. 2. This is a complicated market. We've found some awesome trades in Energy, Oil, Natural Gas, as well as names like $AAPL Google, and Facebook - to name a few - but this requires some intense charting, and at least 100 chart views to pull off, and providing all those charts in one place, is only going to confuse people. 3. It's a distraction. If I had been worried about updating the PCA, I may have missed the big reversal in FaceBook. There are just too many charts views to monitor in one folder.  Maybe I'll revise the public charts area, to 1 or 2 critical charts when the timing is right, but for now just continue to follow my work on twitter.

Take Care, and enjoy the rest of the summer,
 Anthony Allyn

P.S. I ran out of time, before I could post the links to the videos... but you can find them on 3XTraders YouTube channel