Wednesday, March 18, 2020

Market Update 3/18/2020 - Bullish Signals

Investors continue to freak out over coronavirus expectations, and that's going to continue, as long as the negative news cycle continues, but all my sentiment indicators have turned bullish, and market is extremely oversold. As some point the market overshoots to the downside, or you reach the point of selling exhaustion, and it looks like we're there.

I tried to warn folks over the past several months that, "something bad was about to happen", and that the entire rally, since the Plunge Protection Team was called in, at the end of 2018, was a head fake rally, and dumb (Fast) money chasing a dream.


A rare "Running flat", or common Expending Flat corrective pattern:




This is where you want to put money to work, after a nasty pullback, at maximum fear

I had a major chart malfunction in the middle of this pullback, but getting caught back up to speed.

The bullish long term trend remains intact, and there's a good possibility that this is a very bullish pull back in wave 2, as seen on the $NYSE chart, which I pinned to my twitter page yesterday afternoon.

$NYSE: Likely pullback in to a bullish primary wave (2)


Big Tech: $NDX


The only index that really matters is the NASDAQ, because that's where the bubble is forming.
Trend remains up.

I was actually expecting a real crash, to 4400 on the NASDAQ, societal meltdown, civil war, or even a nuclear war with Russia, and that's still on the table, some time in the future, but is looks like the US zombie companies, will continue to be bailed out.

$SPX Also trending up in a bull market. As high as the $VIX is, you would think it was trading below 1500. lol Bottom of the range looks like 2300 - 2350? Not a big deal.


Energy is ridiculously oversold at this point. I think it's the longest 1 month candle I've ever seen.
 Is wind and solar replacing fossil fuels? I suppose we could see the combustion engine banned; I can't imaging what else markets are pricing in.

Airlines also oversold below the bottom of a very bearish down-turned channel.



It's like the tale of 2 markets: 1. A continuing rally lead mostly by big tech, and biotech, and a few other names. 2. A continuing bear market in Energy, and the rest of the world - PIIGS & JAPAN, etc. This is why Germany is getting hit so hard.

$INDU: Could maybe hit 19,000, but 1000 points on the DOW is nothing at these $VIX levels.
As long as Tech doesn't crash, then no worries.

Stocks Rise in the Spring.

Good luck, Traders
AA








Friday, March 13, 2020

Market Update 3/13/2020 - Friday The 13th - Charts FUBAR

I haven't had time to do and update, for a while, for obvious reasons. Global markets have been crashing for several weeks   several support levels were taken out over the past 2-3 weeks. This destroyed the upturned bullish channel we've been relying on for the past 12 years, and I continue to delete hundreds of broken charts. To make things even more difficult, I accidentally changed the timeline settings on more than 1 of my long term chart folders, and this left many charts FUBAR!

This morning we're seeing a sentiment change. It could be that the, "powers that be", figure they better dress the windows ahead of the end of the first quarter, to avoid massive redemption's in April, and what better time for a short squeeze than a week before options expiration. There's all the catalyst - for a rally - you need. Don't try to ague with yourself that markets can't rally, on bad news, they do this all the time.

Reminder: Money, and sentiment, moves markets, not bearish tweets. It's time to put the negativity out of your mind.

Now that everyone is bearish, and a massive number of retail investors/ traders are short this market, it's time for a short squeeze, that I think could easily carry us into July.

This is the fastest downside velocity - in a 3 week period - coming off an all time high, in market history. This isn't normal. It may have been planned for a very long time, and the pandemic is being used as an excuse to take down global markets, which were already weak, but for every over-reaction, is an equal and opposite reaction. 

The Economic collapse is being priced into US equities:  

The US the consumer was supposed to carry the economy. Well, now the consumer is cancelling everything, and wondering if they'll have a job next month, and one top of all that, Russia is trying to destroy the US Fracking industry, by continuing their so called "oil war". That story is old; but the coronavirus story was just one more reason for the market to over-react.

Oil:

See where this "Oil Price War", story originated: Moscow


In case you think I'm taking the coronavirus lightly: 

I predicted only a few months ago, that a black swan would emerge, which may cancel the elections, and lead to massive civil unrest.

See: Coronavirus much much worse than Ebola 




It's not that Ebola is that deadly, but it spreads rapidly, and that means that it will overload the healthcare system. 20% of infected people end up in the hospital, and there just aren't enough hospital beds.

As we've already seeing in China, and Italy, we will probably, see several large cities in the US, including my home town, Chicago, locked down. This will lead to a panic, and empty store shelves, as we've already seen some hoarding.

I refuse to fight crowds at the grocery store during a panic, and if need be, I can last several months, on what I already have. I've been preparing for this moment for a long time, but once the news cycle changes, and store shelves are replenished, I'd like to make some final preparations.

Imagine being locked in your house for several months, without work. are you well prepared?

Coronavirus is going to be with us for a while, but as long as markets remain open, and the volatility remains high it should offer some excellent trading opportunities.

$SPX

I'm seeing a megaphone pattern, with a 3100 target on the $SPX, by July. This a pattern 99% of technicians aren't familiar with. Most are still looking for a bullish channel, which is utterly ridiculous. 




Another possibility is a much bigger crash around the Summer break.



If these charts break, then I'll be back to square one.

I'll be updating the charts in the public charts area shortly, and because volatility is so high, only daily candlestick charts, or longer time-frame.

Follow my twitter page for real time market alerts, and watch me block the fools who dare pester me in the morning, talk up their own book, and otherwise troll me. I don't mind questions, but I'm not on twitter to hold new traders hands, and teach common sense. Read the Twitter warning in the chart legend (tab).   

Thanks for your support
AA





Saturday, March 7, 2020

Market Update Weekly Wrap Up 3/7/2020 - This Is What A Bear Market Looks Like

Weakness continues, but the selling momentum has slowed, and that points to a bottom coming in, but as long as the $VIX remains at these levels, we're probably not off to the races. Bottoming is a process, which takes time.

Financials made a fresh low, on Friday, and European stocks as well... The $DAX continues to be one of my best indicators, for US markets, and I'm willing to provide you with regular updates on the DAX for only $99 per month. I'll even throw in $VIX targets, so you know where the next short squeeze is going to occur. Don't trust your emotions, trust the $VIX! 

No matter what you think about coronavirus, there can be no doubt that the fear in global markets is real, but the fear of missing the next big run is going to return at some point, or the fear of remaining short into another 5% rally, as we saw ahead of the The Federal Reserve's emergency rate cut this week. It's pretty obvious the that news wasn't leaked, 2 days ahead of time. The financial networks were even reporting that markets were expecting it. Goldman Sachs warned just ahead of this mini-crash, who do you think was covering their short position, ahead of the news? See:

26 Goldman Sachs Alumni Who Run the World (GS) Investopedia 


Most Important Headline of the week - from a trading perspective - was that there was a massive short-squeeze in the $VIX Friday afternoon. This resulted in a $VIX high we haven't seen in the financial crisis of  '07-08. See:
"Someone Big Was Utterly Blown The F**k Out": Here's The Reason Behind Today's Unprecedented VIX Move"  zerohedge.com  

This little false breakout on the $VIX was unexpected, and the only thing that kept me from panicking, was the lack of selling pressure. I'm using thinkorswim religiously now, and running the program on a 30" ultra-widescreen, so I see everything. The $SPX held it's own, as the $VIX continued to breakout, and this proves the market is a little more resilient than many people may think.

Here's my new setup:


There's been some talk about the lack of liquidity in futures markets, but at least the market can catch a bid, even on a Friday. See:

Thin Liquidity in Stock Futures Raises Risk of More Wild Market Moves wsj


Of course once the $VIX shorts got blown out of the water, the $VIX plummeted some 15 points in the final 1/2 hour of trading, and this resulted in massive (retail) short covering, going into the weekend. This is what a bear market looks like, and it's reminiscent of trading during the crash of 08.

I think this was the defining capitulation moment, and I'm very bullish, and especially when I see the amount mass hysteria exhibited on Twitter.

It was just a couple weeks ago, when I warned the bulls:

The original tweet has since been removed, but I can tell you it was a great contrarian indicator.

Now I see the bears mocking the bulls, in the same way, and that's a very bullish contrarian indicator.
"Don't follow the herd", unfollow the herd.


The selling of the past 2 weeks, as fast as it was, was also well organized, and if you've been following my charts closely on twitter, I've shown you where the bids were lowered in order to take out support, and with liquidity low, it makes it even easier for the powers that to manipulate markets. On Friday we saw the market gap down, just below support. Looked like an engineered shakeout.

We haven't seen the baby being thrown out with the bathwater. We haven't seen the high-fliers sell off, and several sectors have been spared, including casino stocks. Most the fear seems to me in bond markets, airlines, and oil. 

 It's way too soon to call this a correction, let alone a crash. Don't fall into the bear trap!

I'm bullish for the next week or 2, and looking for alternative trades in Energy. I want to be short treasuries, cryptos, gold, miners, and anything else that looks like a safe place. Money also has to come out of utilities, and healthcare We need to see more of a real risk on environment. Not just speculation, but a nice Boeing rally, and I'm thinking it's time for energy to join the party. Energy is the most hated sector, and it was down more than any other sector on this route. I suppose we will see money rush back into tech stocks, and I like Biotech, but the real fear is in Energy names. 

Chart of the week: XOP S&P Oil & Gas Exploration & Production. Sound pretty diversified, but I haven't checked the components. What I'm interested in is the way everything lines up perfectly, and if this was a 30 year chart of the $SPX, it would look like the 400 level. For disclosure I don't own this fund.

 


Here's the 20 year $SPX pattern, mentioned above, and I think there's a good chance this plays out in another year, at the rate we're going. 



Yes the coronavirus pandemic is serious, but that's not going to keep money from being put to work, and in a wave 1, bearishness sentiment peaks out rather quickly. Dip buyers always come in in wave 2, so in the short term, it doesn't matter to me if this is a continuing bull market, or a bear market. 

1000 point moves on the DOW are the new normal - above $VIX 30 - so be careful out there!
When you see the buyers return, it should be obvious to everyone.

As bearish as the above long term chart looks, compare that to the very bullish LT NASDAQ chart below.


That's all the time I have on this Saturday.

Follow my on Twitter page in the morning for the mini-blog, and real time updates throughout the day, and follow the public charts area, for some of the best charts on the internet, and watch me chart the opening bell in real time. You're continued support is appreciated.
AA




Thursday, February 27, 2020

Market Update - 2/27/2020

I started writing this blog about the time the top came in, so let's review that first.

$VIX bottomed, and never retested the 13.50 level, I has called out the week before, as several markets whipsawed into triangle tops.
 
$DAX continues to be one of the best indicators of the global economy.
On the chart below, you can see how $DAX futures had continued to whipsaw into a topping pattern, before violently reversing. 


Low volatility $SPX - I covered this one in previous blogs, and alerted to this very bearish ending diagonal triangle in my twitter feed.

You've probably heard it said, "nothing moves in a straight line"? It actually can... but not in the first wave down, and we're bound to get a massive reversal as soon as this morning, or as late as Monday morning. I kinda see us closing off the lows today, building a base, and squeezing the short sellers into the weekend. 

Watch for the $VIX to top out around 33 - 36, and the $TVIX to reverse @ 92. You don't even need a $SPX chart to know what's about to happen here.



I like the washout in oil, and Energy, with an OPEC meeting coming next week. Tech can continue to lead. I think there's a good chance Gold get's crushed, based on the Dow, priced in gold. Maybe not today, but withing a few weeks. I like US treasuries, and you can find that chart in the public charts area.

Energy:



$DOW priced in Gold:


I'm almost out of time, and should be updating charts, not blogging.

Watch for this target on the DOW: 26435

After the reversal is confirmed, I would expect the market to snap back for several weeks. Don't under-estimate the power of the snap-back rally.

This market is a lot to wrap your head around, and if you don't absolutely trust the charts, forget about it!

I followed a bunch of new traders on twitter, which turned out to be far more distraction, than it was worth. For instance one trader I was following was seen pumping $DAX every morning, while perpetually bearish followers continue to hyperventilate over the COVID-19. It can become difficult to keep your emotions at bay.... but I've since un-followed most the people I started following 2 weeks ago, and that has helped me regain my focus. Tune out the emotion, those who talk up their own book, and the lying main stream media.

More later,
AA





Thursday, February 13, 2020

Market Update Thursday 1/13/2020 - Which Came First The Chicken Or The Egg

This morning I could go on and on how I was right 4 - 5 more times going into today's trading session, and lately it's hard to keep track....

I used to think being right once a day was the goal, but it's better to have several oars in the water. I think this, in part, is why day traders have such a hard time... because they're putting all their eggs in one basket, trading the $SPX, or the $DAX, or Gold, or whatever, and that means you're not diversified, but you're also only looking at one part of the market. Once you can handle 3, or more trades at once, the chance of winning are in your favor.
For instance: If you're Oil chart points to a breakout, or Natural Gas.... and the the Russia chart, or Dubai confirms it, that adds a lot of weight to your prediction. Here's another example: A breakout in Deutsche Bank would point to a recovery in the European banking sector, right? Everyone knows $DB presents a huge risk to the global banking sector, who charts it? One of my mantras is to "Chart everything".

 If I don't toot my own horn, nobody else is going to.... so let's document yesterday's calls:

  1. Yesterday's Oil target (see yesterday's blog).
  2. The $VIX was seen already trying to take out my target ("")

          4. The reversal in Chinese markets.

The begs the question:

Which Came First The Chicken Or The Egg? 

"Chicken-and-egg" is a metaphoric adjective describing situations where it is not clear which of two events should be considered the cause and which should be considered the effect..."  Wikipedia

In this case of which came first...: 

Do the charts predict the future, or is news released at certain times in order to drive markets, wherever the, "power's that be", (the corporate banking interests who also own every news outlet) like? See: These 6 Corporations Control 90% Of The Media In America businessinsider 

The catalyst for this pullback was the new Coronavirus numbers, and I was watching in real time, as futures went from the $SPX being up 2 handles - precisely at my red line, to blood red, in only a matter of seconds. See the tweets above with chart attached.  

It's impossible for me to know China is going to release bad news, at a certain time, but insiders knew those numbers were coming, and sold into it, going into yesterday's close. Why would they do that? In order to force market participants to buy protection ahead of Weekly OPEX, tomorrow, and monthly OPEX next Friday. As I mentioned in yesterday's blog, every market move revolves around Options Expiration dates, and market sentiment going into (ahead of) those dates. Yesterday we saw the market become overly bullish, and this morning we're seeing a little give back.

The first cluster of highly contagious Coronavirus cases were being reported as early as Dec 8th, 2019, and it wasn't until it became viral (no pun intended) on social media, and the main steam media started reporting on it, that we saw bearish market sentiment peak out around 2 weeks ago, when we saw futures down 350 DOW points. Ever since then the market has continued straight up, and those who trust the news for their information, can't believe it, but this was very predictable, based on the sentiment reversal.... in the face of bearish news. This why I'll trust my sentiment indicators, over whatever is being reported, any day of the week.

If the Chicken (the charts) came first, and the news reports (the egg) come second, then you could say "the charts predict the future", but if the egg/ News was already being hatched, then the charts only predict the news, and more importantly the emotional reaction to that news, because in theory, this is more important than the news itself.

It's impossible for me to convince investors/traders, who are scared out of their wits, over this coronavirus outbreak, to ignore their fear, and "don't fight the trend". They'll have to learn to get past their emotional barriers, at their own pace.

The best example I can give of this chicken and egg theory is the irrational fear that was created by the main stream media, of a Trump win, in the 2016 election. They claimed the market would "crash". I predicted that Trump win, and the charts pointed to a crash in market futures on election night, and I called that panic, "a gift",
 and the market rallied the very next morning, like nothing had happened. I can't tell you exactly what percentage the market is up since Trump took office, but it's up a lot!

Don't let irrational fear get the best of you.

AA    
















Wednesday, February 12, 2020

Market Update 2/12/2020 - Oil, NASDAQ, Russia, Coronavirus

I should be busy updating the charts this morning, and switching out the short term charts in the public charts area, but I thought I better do an update. Multi-tasking

The 1 min. chart has kept me on track over the past couple day's, and the 10 min. chart is working again, after yesterday's little pullback, but I'm also charting Oil, and energy, not to mention Russia, and Biotech, and the $VIX, and everything else it takes to be right every day. It's a tall order; 16 hr days. Thanks for your support.

To review the action of the past few days: The trend continues. $VIX remains contained (#NoFear).

$SPX  1 min chart


$SPX 10 min chart - Pulled back into support going into yesterday's close, as the $VIX rallied off my "$VIX ALERT". Still the $VIX remains relatively low

I think yesterday's pullback could be enough to keep the bears trapped until at least Tuesday of next week, and possibly going into OPEX is Friday, with the $VIX going as low 13.50! From there, I think we'll see the $VIX fill the gap left behind at the 18 level.

Oil

The best call of the week, was yesterday's reversal in Oil, and of course Russia reversed as well.

What makes that call so incredible is what I made that call the day before.



I think the 3X Russia Bull can at least fill the gap, that was left behind last week around $75.


Technically the trend on Oil remains down, so watch this target on the Bloomberg 2X Oil fund $UCO. Looks like 14.35. I'm thinking it may still need to build a base, and the Oil bulls should remain trapped going into OPEX. Everything revolves around OPEX.

 Sentiment remains pretty bearish on #coronavirus fears, but it hasn't spread into the Europe, or the US, and I think there's a good chance we're seeing money flow out of Asia, and into the US. Coronavirus is only suppose to shave .01% - .02% off of 2020 growth estimates. That could change, but that's where we are today.

Bearish sentiment doesn't move markets, money does.

I'm going to add some DCS charts to the Public charts area.

The NASDAQ is on a tear, and the target on the $NDX looks like 9700.



No doubt the NASDAQ is going to take out the 10k level. It's just a matter of how soon? May is selling season, so I think before then.


The Dow: Looks like the chart was repaired after last Friday's bear trap, but if this channel (in black), breaks you should know what to do. Support looks like 29,300, and you know it's going to 30k.


I'll have to draw up a new $SPX chart to match.... or add this 60 min. view.

$SPX 60 min. - Trend remains up of course


Watch those updated in the Public charts area. You can find a link to those live charts, in the left hand side menu, and a legend to help you understand my charts, on the Chart Legend TAB at the top of this page. So much more, I'd like to add, but I'm outta time.

Good luck, AA

Thursday, February 6, 2020

Market Update Thursday 2/6/2020 - Wall Street Get's It Wrong Again!

Today, we're going to take another look at Tesla, and how Wall Street Money Managers totally got it wrong, and carry that theme into this ridiculous 3 day rally.

I blogged on Tesla a few days ago, just as it went parabolic, and that trend continues up until, just before the close on Tuesday, where it gave back $100 in the final minutes of trading. This was the day I decided to go to a 1 min. chart, in order to see what that looked like, and when that chart broke, it really broke!



How weird is it that the same day I go to a 1 min. chart, I'm able capture the crash in real time? I wasn't watching this chart when it broke, and unless you already had your sell-order in - just below the 940 level, you miss the boat anyhow. I call this a crash, but it was really more of a washout, to support, as I tweeted this morning.

 CNBC didn't ever report on the Tesla Crash, but then a day later - after they run 2 bearish stories - they're reporting that Tesla is trading in a "bear market", and this when it's still up 18% for the week.
Again I gotta wonder what's really going on behind the scenes, at the financial Fake News networks. Who owns then, and who is really being helped, by their ridiculous reporting? 

Today we see Tesla trading around the same level, it was a few days ago, when I started warning people not chase it, and even to to add to their shorts. Granted it's not easy coming in and selling 10-20% daily moves to the upside, but any fool should know that a parabolic move in Tesla - in which it's valuation surpasses McDonald's - is not going to last.

I was watching Bloomberg this morning, and learned it was actually professional Money Managers chasing that parabolic rally! How dumb is this new generation of investors?! I suppose this helps explain why this market continues to hold up 12 years after it started, as well as the panic buying we've seen over the past 3 days. 1000 point rally on the Dow, in 3 days, seems a little ridiculous.

Now, I've spent way too much time on Tesla, but it's another good example of how Wall Street gets it wrong, all the time, and another reason not to trust this market. 

This rally has extended farther, and rallied faster than even the wave "C" target I set in the previous blog. I think part of that is short covering, and maybe Asian investors moving their money into the US, and Europe? But this was an east bottom to call, and money gets put to work on the 1st Monday of the month.

The $VIX remains elevated, and ports being shut down over this coronavirus situation, and an overshoot to the upside doesn't make me more bullish, going into next week. Seems like the PTB like to take profits on Friday, and Monday, knowing the short sellers won't want to get short?

Risk Off

So far we're only seen risk priced into commodities markets, while the NASDAQ is trading at all time highs. This divergence scares me, and reminds me of the Hindenburg Omen, which is a situation where you have many stocks trading at all time lows, and too many stocks trading at all time highs, and a sudden re-balancing can occur.

I'm out of time. I spent at least an hour updating 23 Dow charts this morning, and this is just one of them.

$DJIA  



Market looks pivotal here. You can follow my charts, and market alerts on my twitter page, and the public charts area. Find the links. Thanks for your support.
Later,
AA



Monday, February 3, 2020

Market Update 2/3/2020 - Rallying Off Friday's Revised Target

I only have a half hour, before the opening bell rings, but the charts continue to work like a charm.

Friday the market sold off further than expected, but I was able to come up with a downside target early on.

$SPX pattern identified 11 AM Friday morning: Down-turned triangle pattern (seen in blue). This is the chart from my public charts area. Find the link to the public charts in the side menu


Of course my call after taking out that target, going into Friday's close was to reverse to the upside, which we're already seeing in futures markets.




 The $VIX was sold at 19.99 on Friday - no coincidence! - so the bulls are still in control.

 As I blogged last week, I've never seen the $VIX close at the highs of the month, ever, and this information alone is worth the price of admission.


CNBC claims the market closed down for 2020, but that's simply not true, and they fail to even mention the $SPX bounced off key supports at the 50 day moving average.

Bloomberg felt it was necessary to claim that "damage has been done to the ($SOX) chart, when the person who does the charting over there, can't even draw a proper trend line.

$SOX also bounced off the 50 day, and a key FIB target, and this isn't obvious to the woman who calls herself the@TheChartress? Smells like a bear trap, propagated by the financial fake news, because the alternative explanation is that these people are totally incompetent! 

I've added a couple $SOX charts to the public area, on Friday, and I think you'll get the most bang for your buck in 3X leveraged bull SOXL. 

Continue to watch my twitter page, for up to the minute technical charts, and analysis. Following me at twitter isn't enough, as I pointed to in the previous 2 blogs; you have to look at my page in order to review all the tweets....

Good Luck this week
AA 










Friday, January 31, 2020

Market Update 1/31/2020 - Picking Up From Where We Left Off

Picking up where I left off yesterday: 1. Market pulled back to a higher low. 2. Rallied off support. 3. Hit resistance at the close - actually ran 2 points higher than expected, in the final minute, as retail short sellers ran for the exits. 4. This we see futures down, as predicted. That's 4 more correct calls in 24 hours, not including the swing trade Silver.

 Creating accurate charts, and making consistently correct calls isn't the problem. The problem is that I'm not reaching my target audience, which I'll delve into in a minute.

$SPX - This 10 min chart - located in the public charts area continues to work like a dream!   


 I'm sure the above chart is a little confusing for some people to follow, as it becomes more complicated, but every line is necessary.... Even the thin pink line you see on the chart, may come in handy, further down the road, and if I were to delete that, I could end up having to find it all over again.

See the "legend" tab, at the top of this page, so you know what pattern we're watching (in purple).

The chart has also become more complicated since the bounce out of the hole on Monday, so it's become more confusing, and going into yesterday's close, I predicted that we're probably trading in a sideways range - seen in purple.

Brexit will probably be the catalyst for the next relieve rally today, or Monday - first Monday of the month. The reopening of the Chinese market, will no doubt be another thing to watch going forward.

Picking up where I left off  yesterday: 

Twitter! After doing some testing, I found that only 10% of my twitter alerts get out to my followers. This makes sense, because if Twitter didn't throttle your twitter page view,  you would certainly be overwhelmed by the number of tweets... in other words, if you were to follow 1000 people, and you received every tweet from everyone you followed, you wouldn't even be able to read it all. Face book must do the same thing, because some times you don't get a post from a friend, until days later, if ever.

I tweeted around 70 times yesterday, and chanced are you missed 90% of them, unless you are watching my twitter page. That's one solution is to watch my twitter view, at the market open, or whenever you want to get caught up to speed, but it's not a permanent solution,

I wish I figured all this out sooner, and in retrospect I've wasted countless hours trying to provide up-to-the-minute market analysis, alerts to new blogs, and self promotion, over the past few years.

Now it's time to regroup, and this is going to require a steep learning curve. I have several ideas in  the works, but I'd like to keep things simple. This what I liked about twitter; twitter is simple... but as it turns out, unreliable, and ineffective.

For now, watch my twitter page, and I'll try not to spam it with politics, and other stupidity.

AA

Thursday, January 30, 2020

Market Update 1/30/2020 Coronavirus Outbreak, Black Flags, and Tesla

We finally got the market reversal we were looking for, in the last update, and the black flag it seems every financial news network has been warning us about. I can't even count the number of times I've heard Bloomberg, or one of the other networks ask their guest if they "see any false flags on the horizon"? It's almost as if they knew the Coronavirus outbreak was coming, and I can see why some scientists think we're living in a computer program.

I don't have time to piece together conspiracies this morning, but this, from several reputable sources: Experts warned China in 2017 that a virus could "escape", from one of  their bio-weapons labs in dailymail.com 

The real reasons I wanted to blog this morning are:

1. I've taken down most the charts, from the public charts area, and stopped publishing $VIX targets there.

a. I bit off more than I could chew trying to cover every sector, and keep those charts updated.

b. It just became more work than it's worth - lack of donations to this website. People just aren't willing to help the cause, so why should I stress myself out?

c. It's impossible to keep a handle on this kind of volatility, and track Energy, and such.

I did leave 2 short term $SPX charts in the public charts area, and added a Silver chart yesterday, but the big move in silver was the sell-off I called in my twitter feed, the day before, and I have no interest in Silver, other than for a trade. I'll probably reorganize the public charts, or throw a china chart up, when that trade comes into play?

2. I've quite posting alerts to the Public charts. If want alerts you'll have to watch my twitter, and you'll probably want to check out the actual page, because I don't believe the alerts, and charts are always seen, and especially if you follow a lot of people there. I think twitter must throttle your personal twitter feed, or else you would be overrun with too many tweets in your page view. I'm really not sure why it is, I'm not getting much response on twitter, when I'm right, 90% of the time.
I've been there 10 years, and only have 2300 or so follows, most of whom don't even trade? That's also becoming a waste of time, but that's where you can find me for the time being. 

Are you getting my alerts? Let me know.

I even told folks to sell The Fed announcement. Perfect!

Go back an look at my daily calls going back several weeks, and you'll find I've been right on Energy, Oil, SPX, $VIX, the recent top, the rally off support on Tuesday, and even the bearish reversal we saw overnight, last night! Consistency is everything.

I'm out of time, and the opening bell just rang. Expect the market to hold up above the low we saw earlier in the week. It's important to the market manipulators that the market close Jan. with a gain, and I've never seen the $VIX close at new recent highs on the last trading day of the month.

Probably see another rally, next week, before the bottom falls out again, and it's still too early to say if this a correction, or a new bear market.

Later, AA

P.S. Tesla looks like it's topping out. Res looks like 660 - 670. The news has been priced in. I'd sell calls months out. August?
 

Wednesday, January 15, 2020

Market Update 1/15/2020 - Dow 29,000, Overshoots, & Advanced Charting Techniques

I just can never find the time to blog, but there must be a reason I was up at 3:30AM this morning,

I looks like the goal, of the psychopaths who control this market, is to close above DOW 29,000, this OPEX Friday. They only care about taking out the next psychological target, and 29k is a good one. It sounds better than 30, and this is why you see so many goods priced at 29.95. 

These round number targets is all the PTB have, since they don't know how to find a technical target, and I've been thinking; this is why the price action commonly overshoots to the upside, and the down side, and more importantly; this is the reason markets take the stairs up, and the elevator down. 

The bulls set a bullish target regardless of technical support/resistance, and it's only later that the technical start working again. This happens all the time; markets break out, and hold up for a while, only to break technical support, or fall back into the bearish channel, a few weeks later. False breakouts, or overshoots, are a dime a dozen. 

These false breakouts is what makes calling tops so difficult, and this top looks like it could be a major one. If it's the top on a 12 year bull market, I can say this will be a first for me, since I only started charting around the time the great bear market commenced in 2007. Perhaps this is why I find calling bottoms easier, although bottoms are easier to confirm. Market tops tend to roll over slowly, as the bulls continue buying every dip, and most short sellers get squeezed, during the first big counter-trend rally.

 I tried calling the top on this market over a month ago, but it soon became clear that the $VIX was going to continue to be hammered down, and more importantly the bullish trend remained intact, and a reversal can't be confirmed until the $VIX breaks out, and key support starts breaking down, or a new trend can be established, the last of which can take an awful long time.

Theoretically you'd be better off selling when support breaks, than trying to pick tops, but these reversals often occur overnight, and chasing weakness isn't easy to do, and we've already see a couple recent bear traps, but I still prefer selling into strength.    

This comes down to finding good entry points, and it's easy to miss the boat waiting for the bounce (in a bearish reversal), or pullback (in a bull run), that never comes. This comes down to the trading part of it, and I think this is far more difficult than charting.

Touching on the previous blog: This all has to do with the pump 'n' dump. The bulls and bears probably coordinate the pump n' dump, or they are all one in the same, just as the left/ right paradigm in politics makes people believe that the Democrats and Republicans can't work together, as they continue to pass trillion dollar spending bills. The Market Makers may say, "look we're going to drive the Dow to 30k, before May, and then she's all yours, and then they all put their sell orders in, and go on vacation. 
See:  The Left Right Paradigm Is Over: It's You Versus The Corporations businessinsider.com 

Overshoots & Stophunts: 


Once the market overshoots, the algos are loaded at the breakout point (stophunt), and then when that support breaks, program selling takes over. This explains why the market takes the stairs up, and the elevator down, and this is why I spend so much time looking for stop-hunts. This also explains why buyers no longer step in and buy support, on the way down. Back in the day, you used to see buyers step in at support, but nowadays, market selloffs tend to continue in a straight line, with very weak, or non existent, counter-trend rally's. 

Let's use Tech as an example, since this is the most overbought sector of all. Just yesterday it was reported that the UK is more heavily invested in US tech companies, than US investors. This is something we already knew, looking at the $NDAQ index. See: Nasdaq's Nordic Debt Market Continues To Grow globalnewswire.com

These Nordic socialist countries are all chasing yield in order to sustain their failing pension ponzi scheme; a topic for another day, perhaps.

$NDAQ - overshoots the 2018 high by around 5%, which is probably the gains they're looking for. A self fulfilling prophesy, of sorts. Bullish channel in black remains broken. I've lowered the stophunt to just below the 200 week moving average, and we'll no doubt see bounce at that level, but I'm not seeing a bull market here, only a suckers rally, created by more bad Fed policy. A liquidity bubble.   



Getting back to more obvious overshoots. 

$NDX Using the 2 year $NDX chart as an example - Looks like the price action overshot both parallel upper channel lines. Tech has been leading for years, so let's say the bullish target was 9000, and momentum has carried it slightly higher, or maybe we're waiting for DOW 29k? The top of the channel becomes the stop-hunt just above the 8700 level. That would be a 200 point overshoot, and that's probably enough to shake most retail short sellers, but what will happen when the price action falls back into the channel, is very predictable. 


$NDX - looking at another set of parallel trend lines, the target looks like 9175 - 9200, depending on how how long it takes.... Support at my pink line becomes the stop hunt, or the upper blue line, if this happens to overshoot, which I doubt. 
    
$DJUSTC - This the DOW Tech index, and you can see where it slightly overshot the 2500 level 
Again, not a bull market, but a massive head fake rally, caused by the desperate central bankers.

$SPX - Some Elliotticians believe this is a bullish wave 3, so I've labelled it as such. If they're right then we should only consolidation in wave 4, over the next few months.
looks like a little overshoot above my red line, and we saw yesterday's rally sold. I think this could retest, or even overshoot... and then this 3280 level becomes the stophunt. We'll have to see how the market reacts to signing of Trump's historic China Trade Deal.  

$SOX probably looks the worst, with the $SOXL taking out yesterday's upside target. The Hedge funds have been using these leveraged fund to manipulate stocks higher, since James Cramer was seen complaining about the bears using these funds to crash the market, back in 2008. Didn't take long for the bulls to turn the tables....

$SOXX - the ETF looks like it's overshot the upper channel again. It's technically a higher high, but
not a bullish breakout. 

It's possible the price action could hold above the top of the channel for a while, but I don't see this as a bullish wave 3.

You'll find a link to my public charts area at stockcharts.com, in the left hand menu, the legend (to the charts) tab, at the top of this page. 

Should be an interesting next few weeks, and trading in 2020.

Good luck, AA 


  



Thursday, January 9, 2020

Market Update 1/9/2020 - Is This The Big Pump and Dump Ahead of Earnings Season?

Trading has been pretty wild over the past couple days, with gold, and oil spiking, ahead of the World War 3 trade, that wasn't. It's nice to get back to normal trading, on decent volume, and nail every market move over the past 2 days. I even warned people not to chase the action into the close, and that turned out to be good advice.

Sadly, unless you trade futures contracts, you missed an easy 100 handles on an overnight swing trade.

Tuesday night we saw market futures gap down 50 SPX points to some very obvious support levels (pointed to in previous updates;DOW 28200; SPX 3200), followed by dip buyers coming in at support, and futures recovering by the next morning, and by the end of the day the NASDAQ and the $SPX, has taken out new all time highs!  It wasn't until the end of the day, that we finally saw a little run for the exits, on reports that the Iranian backed militia had once again fired a couple missiles into the so called green zone, near the US embassy. This is nothing new, by the way, see:
"Since September 2018, IBG militants have fired over 30 rockets at U.S. facilities in Iraq, including the U.S. embassy in Baghdad..." csis.org 

It's only now that this escalation, on Iran's part, is being reported, and Trump blamed.... of course. 

Tuesday nights trade reminds me of the night Trump won, and the main stream media was pushing the market collapse story, as DOW futures crashed over 1000 points, and predictably the short sellers were crushed the very next morning. It was probably one of the worst head-fakes I've ever seen, second only to the rebound off the 2008 lows.

So, now that the short sellers are trapped again, and earnings season doesn't start for another week, I think this short squeeze can continue.

Last earning season was "not as bad as expected", and I suspect this one is going to be "in line with expectations", or even "better than expected". That presents the perfect pump 'n' dump scenario. Short capitulation, followed by profit taking, on good news.

$SPX - Short term: This morning I didn't have any trouble finding a bullish channel on the 1 min chart, and this morning I'll be replacing the 15 min chart with this one.

$SPX - 1 min. Looks like a pullback in wave "a". Futures are up, but I'd expect another pullback ahead of the weekend. Could even see another Short Squeeze Friday, if we can complete consolidation, by the end of the day.




$SPX 10 min view. Res is the black line, and that's where futures are pointing. This the chart you'll find in the public charts area.


$NDX  - Of course tech has to lead. Found this 9450 (Feb) target, on a 3 year chart view. 


DOW - I wanted to nail down the same target on the dow, and you can see where it's having trouble breaking out above res. I had to go to a 4 year chart to find this channel.


Watch the public charts, and the $VIX alerts, and if I'm helping you trade, then you can help me keep the charts coming, by making a donation to this website.
I don't have time to cover Oil, or Gold, but you'll find those chart in the public charts area.
Opening bell opens in 5 min, and I still have some chart updates to do.
Good luck, 
AA



 



Tuesday, January 7, 2020

Market Update January 7th, 2020

Hope you all had a good holiday! 

It's been more than a week since my last update, but holiday trading was slow, and not too predictable going into the New Year. So much for Santa Claus rally theory.

It was a good thing I replaced the 1 min. chart, with the 10 min view, before the very short term charts broke. 

I've been pretty busy in the mornings trying to make sense of this market, and trying to get a handle on commodities, currencies, and tracking foreign markets, and that just doesn't leave much time to blog.   

I continue to provide updates from my Twitter feed @3XTraders, so follow me there, if you can handle my politics. I have folks following me there, who have opposite political views, and I try not to let that distract me from the business side. Just don't pester me there, or I'm liable to block you in a New York Minute. See my friendly warning in the the public charts Legend, linked to - in the tab above - on this page.       

Technical Issues

Third reason I'm not blogging as much is that my computer has been acting up, not wanting to start up in the morning. No boot up, after powering up, black screens, etc. Yesterday she froze up a minute after start up, and it took 15 minutes to change some bios settings, and run windows startup repair program. This is a bad sign of things to come. This morning she fired right up, but the video flashes from one monitor to another, and this points to an ongoing hardware issue. I'm probably going to have to do a hardware upgrade at some point, and planning to back up my files today.

In the mean time: if I experience a major hardware failure, I'll tweet out an alert from my mobile.

I got distracted this morning, and almost already out of time.

$DAX bounced off support yesterday, so we seem to be getting back to normal trading. The US market has been trying to lead, and that just hasn't worked out too well. Next I'm going to be looking to see if the $DAX can take out the 2018 high. That could take at least a week, so I'm not seeing an imminent global sell-off. 

The 10 min chart isn't working too well. Looks like it might be trading into a down-turned triangle, pointing at the 3200 level, but you're better off watching the DCS charts. 3200 looks like the stophunt, so if that level breaks we could see a big move to the downside.

$SPX DCS chart: Stophunt is 3200, at my purple line

Maybe the market continues to hold up in the short term, but I'm seeing a 10% pullback target before March.

If the market continues to melt higher, then DOW 30,000 is an obvious psychological target. And from there, a pullback to 25500.



Don't miss the next blog, and watch for a $VIX breakout above the 16 level.

In the meantime see: Well-intentioned plans can bring unintended consequences. The world’s major central banks have been adding stimulus to the global financial system, hoping to lessen economic volatility" etftrends.com 

And now you know, who's manipulating "volatility" 
AA