Market Update 8/31/21 - Breakout or Fakeout?!

This week can be considered holiday trading, since many traders have already left for vacation, and certainly taking Friday off. That makes things very unpredictable, but I'm going to give it my best shot... 

 We saw the $SPX and the NASDAQ, both breakout to new highs, but what's more significant, is that  the NASDAQ broke out of top of the range it's been trading in for the past several months. Note: The public charts have been updated, and annotated, and I'm adding them below - with further explanation - as well. 

 $COMPQ (NASDAQ): Breaks out above resistance, which actually started on Friday. 

 $QQQ - 10 min chart - added to the public charts area, because all that matters is the NASDAQ!  Support looks like 375 - trend remains up (obviously), and I'm calling this wave "5", based on the fact that wave 4 looked like a triangle pattern. I think we'll probably see a little pullback, followed by another retest of the highs, as soon as Friday. Adding this chart to the public charts area, until it breaks. 

$SPX - Daily Candlestick Chart - You'll see what looks like a breakout on the chart which is located in the public charts area, but I have another shorter term view - I'll add below - which doesn't show a breakout. This explain the question mark on my "breakout" annotation. 

$SPX - DCS - Shorted term.  Not seeing a breakout here, although we certainly could.... The market makers can do whatever they please on light holiday trading. 

Typically, you need to see a breakout, in order to facilitate short covering, before the bulls will take profits. This is how things work, a washout below support is bullish, while a breakout to new highs is usually bearish. This is why you always hear traders say, "I'd like to see a washout of the weak hands, before I buy the dip, and also why so many traders buy false breakouts, only to end up being bag holders. Just look at the new all time high in gold ( sold in 2020), for an example... 

  After all, if all traders had to do, in order to consistently make money, was to buy every breakout, then everyone would be a winner. On the contrary, some of the most devastating topping patterns end with false breakouts, called "throw-overs". Meaning that the price action throws-over the top of the pattern, only to suddenly reverse to the downside, so next time you hear the fake news reporting all time highs, as if that's a bullish indicators, you'll know that's all a lot of hype. Look at the "all time highs in lumber", they were all excited about? Again, if watching the fake financial news made you rich, I'd  be a billionaire! The news is a contrarian indicator. 

Lumber breaks out/ bullish reversal  

Remember, we were also watching the 60 min chart views? These charts continue to work. 

$SPX - 60 min. view - Self explanatory  

I've also added a $VIX chart to the public charts area, because I believe the geniuses who have been shorting the $VIX for the past several months, are about to be caught in the pool swimming naked. 

$VXX - This chart dedicated to Andrew Ross @andrewross11

who turned me on to this index. No doubt 1000 greedy bulls are short this index. Definitely follow Andrew Ross, if you need trading guidance 

More next time, AA 

ssss

Market Update - $SPX 4500 - the level to watch

 Now that the market engineers have rigged the $SPX above the 4500 mark, you see them holding it above that level, this morning. It should be obvious to everyone that this 4500 level is significant, and it's the level to watch. When that level breaks it will be sold, while any future breakouts above this level will undoubtedly be bought.  

The $SPX should continue to hold up in the same range it's been trading in for the past 5 months. Should be pretty boring, and as they say, never try to sell (short) a dull market. 

$SPX - continues to trade into a bearish ending diagonal triangle pattern. The spring is getting wound pretty tight, but this can certainly continue for a couple more weeks. If we see the market dumped ahead of Sept. Options Expiration - and most investors are already being prepared for a Sept. pullback - then we could see a perfect 50% retracement, of the previous 6 month rally, with a pullback target at the 200 day ma @ 4150. 

Short term targets: Possible little shakeout to the 50 day ma - just bellow 4400 - followed by a low volume holiday rally, back to the top of the pattern (4595 - another significant psychological target), followed by a mini-flash crash - once the lower triangle line breaks, back to the 4150 level. Of course timelines are nearly impossible to predict, but the fake news is already taking about a Sept. pullback.       

 $SPX - DCS chart - 

This is such a complicated and thinly traded market, it's a lot of work to keep a handle on individual sectors, let alone commodities.  

More on that, in the next update. 

Take care, AA  

 

Market Update Friday 8/27/21 - The Fed Rate Hike coming?

The "Rate Hike" took place in S. Korea - Wednesday night - Thursday (morning) - something you probably did not even hear reported by the fake financial news yesterday, but which definitely spooked markets. An executive decision must have been made to purposely bury that story, in order to push the Jackson Hole narrative, and now know who controls the world - the money masters.   

To the charts:  

 I was just thumbing through some charts, and looking for the pattern I pointed out on the short term NASDAQ, in yesterday's blog, and came across this view of the S&P (below) and even though it's a different index, and a different timeline, it's relevant, and even more so, because it's a much longer term chart.  

 This is one of my secrets, is creating a multitude of chart views, using different timelines, and I can tell you from experience, it's not always easy weeding out the good (relevant) charts, from the bad.  Seeing triangle patterns, develop within larger triangle patterns, also has significance. It helps confirm that these can indeed be identified as triangle patterns.   

$SPX - Major topping pattern - ending diagonal triangle. The obvious stop is the 50 day moving average. AI has been adding to bullish positions at the 50 day, since April, and when the rug is pulled, the stupid machines will sell. It's that simple. 

Since the powers that be, know the market ISN'T going to be sold, going into another holiday week, let's assume the 50 day moving average will continue to rise to the 4000 level (new support), so that this rally will extend into Q3 window dressing. When money managers return from summer vacation, they will be forced to put their clients money to work, and then comes Sept. OPEX. Perfectly choreographed rigged market!   

Getting back to the NASDAQ

$COMPQ - 2 hour view - another rising diagonal triangle. Support looks like 14800, and by next week it will be 15000. The Powers that be are all about even number targets. NASDAQ 15k, DOW 30k, 35k, SPX 4500, 5000. All contain 5's, so they make perfect psychological targets.     

And by the looks of things, I'm going to be taking my short bets off, sooner, rather than later. 

 It's pretty clear the market wants to hear a dovish chair Bernanke, and I'm sure that's also been pre-arranged. The Fed won't pull the punch bowl away, until every crooked member bank is on board, and heavily short. Then will come the downgrades, from Government Sachs and the like. Never fails.... 

Natural Gas short squeeze yesterday - missed it! 

At least I knew better than to be short NatGas, because 2X NatGas bear $KOLD was down over 12%.   

Take Care, AA 

Market waiting for Jackson Hole

 Bloomberg continually reporting "investors waiting for Jackson Hole, but if that were the case, you would see the market rallying every day. The truth is short sellers are covering into the Fed, and the coming Labor Day holiday, as usual, but you'll never hear that reported, because it doesn't sound as bullish. As I pointed out in yesterday's blog, practical every market move is pre-determined by the calendar. Could this time be different? Sure, and that would look like a sell the news event, but I would still expect a short squeeze on Jack Hole Friday (tomorrow), and if the relief rally is delayed, then the market holds up into the holiday.  This is where the $VIX comes in handy. $VIX always comes down, when the Fed offers clarity, and without knowing exactly where$VIX resistance is, takes all the guess work out of it. $VIX breaks out, and continues to pop, sell. $VIX doesn't break out, don't sell, wait. Better yet, sell into a $VIX washout target, and a short squeeze Friday!  

One thing I forgot to mention in yesterday's blog, is that Northman Trader also pointed out - in his latest CNBC interview - that all the market cares about is the fed (liquidity), something I blogged earlier in the month - (Market Update 8/6 - Does the unemployment data matter?). They say, "plagiarism is the sincerest form of flattery", but I think there's nothing sincere about it. 

Moving on to the charts. 

China has settled into a range, or it more or less pinned for the time being, so I'm done with that trade. 

 Financial look toppy, as I pointed out in an earlier blog, and that sector was up again yesterday. I've already started building a short position there, and looking to add more in coming days/weeks. 

If I'm early then I'll be forced to add, but many of these financials have already been treading water for many many weeks, and looking kind of tired.  

$BLK - Blackrock for instance - do they have China exposure? I think so. 

The tech sector is of course the most overbought pig of a market, and the NASDAQ is trading into what looks like a very familiar topping pattern. 

Ill either add the short term chart to the public charts area, or just tweet out the updates, but once that chart breaks, you'll be on your own to try to find a tradable bottom. I'm just too busy to micromanage 1 trade. I have 30 stocks I'm watching, and half a dozen sectors.  

$COMPQ - bearish ending diagonal triangle. You can chart it using your own software and expect to continue trading the range, probably through next week.  

$COMPQ - (same chart) expect a little throw-over (false breakout) at the end of the pattern. Of could most traders will think you've lost your mind trying to short the NASDAQ, just ignore them. 

I'm also still watching metals and miners, but the $USD needs to roll over, and that could take a little while longer.  

$USD - watch for the 92 level to break 

Good Luck, AA 

     

CNBC interview confirms what I've been saying for years; Every OPEX (Options Expiration) is manipulated

If you're a perma-bear and on twitter a lot, you've probably heard of Northman Trader. I think I've blogged on him before, but I don't follow him. I don't follow anyone, because outside opinions can skew my outlook, and I believe my technicals is superior to anyone else's.... 

If you'd like to follow Northman, it's an easy twitter search. 

@NormanTrader posted this, this morning.

SPOTTED: Investor sentiment pic.twitter.com/2LAH7MqYb4

— Sven Henrich (@NorthmanTrader) August 24, 2021

 I can't disagree with that sentiment. The market has been overly complacent ever since positive sentiment topped out - according to my indicators - months ago, and at this late stage in the game, most investors believe, stocks can only go up.   

Here's the interview, from CNBC's World Wide Exchange):

Confirms Opex date manipulation - and I agree some if not most of it it algorithms (AI).... 

Options are purchased by computer programs, in the blink of an eye, and these programs, also take into account, which OPEX dates coincide with light volume holiday short covering. Some scientists believe the universe is a computer program, and the more I study markets, the more orderly it looks to me. The market moves according to set timelines. Even the so called covid crash took place between 1 OPEX, and the next.... and Puts were probably sold a year out, and here we are, months later, still looking at new all time market highs. It's totally rigged, and nobody could even convince me otherwise. 

NorthmanTrader’s Sven Henrich on the unusual patterns in the recent market rally

Sven Henrich, Founder and Lead Market Strategist at NorthmanTrader, joins Worldwide Exchange to discuss his market outlook. (linked)

 If you missed yesterday's blog

  If you missed yesterday's blog. be sure to check it out. It contains my long term outlook, and plenty of long term chart views.... also see my twitter feed, from yesterday, where I put Italy, Greece, and other failing economies on death-watch. Remember these were just some of the charts I used to call the top, back just before covid was used as an excuse to grease the market's wheels again (money printing/ bailout world/ since 2009). 

I forgot to add a chart yesterday, and I'll probably have more to add to it, once I get a chance to do some more charting. 

$SPX - upturned wedge. I'm probably going to add this one to the public charts area. It's an awesome view, showing the right range we're still trading in.   

Later, AA 

 

 

Market Update 8/24/21 - Looks like another tiny gain for the S&P

 Seeing $SPX futures up another 8 points, so looks like we're back to "tiny gains" as I blogged yesterday. The fake news can report new market highs every week, but what about risk v reward, on an .08% gain? The idea that investors are moving this market based on animal instincts is ridiculous, anyhow. Computers, and free Fed money, and crooked bankers, move markets. 

The $VIX is already oversold, and the fake news is already seen mocking the "gloom and doom" crowd. They're also reporting that some technician from Wells Fargo has raised his target on the $SPX to 4800 (or something like that) which is also a contrarian indicator, so I wouldn't be long here. At least... not until the market finds a direction. 

Watch for the $VIX to bounce out of the hole around 17.50. 

I'm going to add some charts to the public charts area:

1. The $NYSE chart - shows that the broader market is stuck in a sideways (probably an extended wave 4) pattern, just as the Russell 2000 is. Also proves that the $SPX is no longer a reliable indicator. It's being rigged, along with the $VIX. 

2. The NASDAQ DCS (daily candlestick chart) - shows a bullish channel on this 2 year view, which does not line up with the long term (weekly/monthly) charts. You'll also see where the price action continues to test resistance - just below the 15k level. That looks somewhat like a continuation pattern   

NASDAQ long term chart - totally overshot the top of the range months ago. Also see how monthly volume continues to decline. They say volume precedes (price) direction.  

And it's not only the Tech heavy NASDAQ which has overshot the long term trend, but it's consumer goods, and most everything else. 

$DJUSNC (consumer goods) - totally overbought - overshot the top of the channel,10 - 12 months ago. 

Momentum is drying up, and that's a sure sign of a major top, just as a bearish ending diagonal triangle (after a big move) is.....  

I'd kinda like to short the heavily manipulated and rigged FAANG stocks, but it's probably going to take a while to break those. I believe Treasury money is being used to prop up FAANG. This is something I never bothered blogging about during the fake covid crash, but Cramer was seen receiving texts from Mnuchin, while he was on air, and nobody knows more about how to drive stocks than Cramer. Sounds conspiratorial right? LOL 

Click to view link

$BKX (Bank index) While I'm on the topic of markets being rigged, see where the $BKX is being propped up. Just above the 2008 high  

$DJUSFN (financials) - Does this look toppy to you? 

Of course that's a monthly chart, and it can take months for a top to form. Just look at how long it took for the market to crash in 2007. 9 months - 1 year? It's not that Wall Street is dumb, it's just that the powers that be spend a lot of time unloading their positions to retail investors, and building massive short positions, before finally pulling the rug out.  

Most investors are not prepared for a crash, because we haven't seen a real crash since 2009. The longer the market holds up the more complacent investors will become, but don't let that keep you from being vigilant. At the moment I don't have a timeline, and I suspect the market will hold up through the end of the year. The market is measured in quarters, not days. It could be that we will see a little washout ahead of 4th quarter window dressing - that's about 6 weeks away? Good luck.          

Take Care, AA   

Market Update 8/23/2021 - taking a look at Post-OPEX Technicals

 Taking a close look at Energy, Gold, China, and more. It could take a few days to get caught up to speed; with many sectors in play.   I haven't really had any time to look at the charts this morning, and just suffered a computer freeze, so I'll be updating the charts on the fly. 

Seems like the market couldn't bounce out of the hole until after Options expiration (Friday), and we're seeing some of that this morning. 

China was up 2% overnight, with no explanation from the same lying fake news, that could only offer negative China news last week, but US markets seems to rally, despite any bad news, and regardless of reality. More on that later. 

The $VIX is the most important chart of all, because unless there's fear in the market, it's not going to sell off. 

$VIX - This morning the $VIX has pulled back to support, so don't be surprised to see another little shakeout today, or tomorrow. Support @ 17.45 (@ the 50 day ma), 17.99 ( at my green line). Res just below 25. Trend is down. 

$EDZ - Seeing the Emerging market bears on again being taken out behind the woodshed - this morning. 

Gold miners took out the target I pointed to a week, or 2 ago, and I suspect a lot of the recent weakness in several sectors had more to do with hedge-funds (or banks like Goldman Sachs) getting paid on their bearish Put options, than anything else.  

($JDST) (Junior miners 3X bear) - looks like a classic reversal.  

Oil - Even saw a little shakeout on $WTI crude last week, but looks like it's already gapped back above support. 

Brent crude: - daily candelstick chart - shows plenty of support, and trading close to the 200 day moving average (key support). 67.75 is resistance. 

The Russell 2000 was bought at the 200 day moving average, and that was probably the best trade of the week, but this morning we see it running into resistance around the 220 level on the $IWM. I would just take profits, and wait for better opportunities. 

The broader market has been retesting the highs - seems like every week - so "new market highs" gets reported quite often, and that probably sounds bullish to the average investor, but the chart doesn't look bullish at all! 

These new highs are tiny moves, and the market seems to be trading into a bearish ending diagonal triangle, as momentum continues to slow. 

 $SPX - continues to retest the top of the range. Not sure how much longer this trend can continue. 

I'd rather look for sector trades, or trade commodities than chase the $SPY, or tech, into an overbought top. 

Tech is still trading according to the 20 day moving average. I know retail traders, are watching this level, but I suspect computers are trading it. Pretty sure that trend can't continue.    

$COMPQ (NASDAQ) Bought at the 50 day moving average, and today trading back above the 20 day moving average. 

The $NDX overshot months ago, and continues to hold up. I've never seen anything like it, so I have to believe the tech sector is being manipulated. Manipulation can't last forever, but it can last for a few months. 

Market Update 8/20/21 - Friday OPEX - weekly wrap-up

 It's been a little bit of a hectic week, trying to stay on top of the market, but it beats being bored. 

Yesterday's selloff, or actually the day before.... Wed. we saw stocks dumped, going into the close, and the short term charts break. I had just alerted to the trend on the 15 min chart, still intact, and no doubt short term traders were buying the lower end of the range.   

$SPX - 15 chart - breaks going into Wednesday's close, where you see my red arrow. That's where st technical support broke. 

  Tweeted the updated 15 min chart at the open: 

#BOOM! - 15 min chart working - #TechnicalAnalysis #SPY $SPX pic.twitter.com/ydmwmhqz0X

— Veteran Market Timer (@3Xtraders) August 19, 2021

I didn't really expect the market to bounce back at the open, but once again, the $VIX was hammered back below resistance, and later I realized that the trend on the 60 min chart, was still intact. 

$SPX - 60 min chart - trend remains intact. 

Looking for a trade. Try the low volatility $SPX #SPY #Bullish trend intact pic.twitter.com/LCLoKgeTtm

— Veteran Market Timer (@3Xtraders) August 19, 2021

Low volatility $SPX 60 min chart - bullish trend remains intact. 

From there we saw the market rally into the close. 

We also saw the DOW test the 50 day moving average, and of course that was bought, and the Russell 2000 was bought at the 200 day. 

Now if the 60 min charts were to break, and all these moving averages were to be taken out at today's open, I'd be looking for a washout to the 4320 level, which I pointed to earlier in the week, and there's still a possibility of that. What typically happens when charts start breaking, is they continue to break. In other words: First the 5 min. chart breaks, then the 15 min., then the 60 min, and finally the DCS chart. Then the fake news reports that we've entered "bear market territory", and then the market rallies on that bad news. Yesterday it was reported that the Hang Seng has officially entered bear market territory, when technically it is only retesting the lows set last month.  

The truth is China has remained in a bear market, ever since counterfeit President Joe Biden was sworn into office. Investors must have though China Joe was going to go easy on China, because of the Democrats track record of continually selling us out to China, but I digress. 

China is locked into a bear market, and that is evidenced by the 200 day moving average breaking back in July. That's a universally bearish signal. I may like certain certain beat-up Chinese stocks, but not the $HSI, at the moment. It's also being reported that there are fund redemption ongoing in China, and that is indeed bearish.      

$HSI - in a bear marker for the past 6 - 7 months 

2 things to watch: 

The $VIX 25.50 level, and the Russell $VIX (The $RVX) 30 level.    

Oil - watch Brent at the 65.50 level (support seen at my pink line). 

You can also watch the $44 level on the $USO, which seems to be working pretty well, after last year's crash. 

I've barely scratched the surface, but I'm outta time 

Good luck, and have a great weekend! 

AA 

Market Update 8/18/21 - looks like a bearish reversal, but why isn't the market selling off?

I'm running a little late this morning, but not seeing futures down too much at the moment. 

It can take a little time to confirm a reversal, but as I tweeted, going into yesterday's close:

I'm going to call this a #bearish reversal, since the $SPX is retesting the lower end of the broken triangle line. #SPX pic.twitter.com/yQboQILtHO

— Veteran Market Timer (@3Xtraders) August 17, 2021

It's a tough call, going into OPEX (Options Expiration) Friday, but I'd venture to guess, we're not going to see any more new highs before then. There is always the possibility that OPEX is the only thing holding the market up, as it did, just ahead of the covid crash, and at that time even Bloomberg was left asking, "why isn't the market selling off". The reason is that every underlying market move only designed to manipulate the heavily over-leveraged Options market. If you don't understand that, just put it up on the shelf.  

Bearish (China) Options are also bound to pay.... and I suspect Government Sachs (and the like) is behind the selling in China. Of course Bloomberg reports - as usual - that some supposed resurgence of the covid virus is scaring markets, while I believe that the uncertainty coming out of China, is a heck-of-a-lot scarier to investors. 

I don't know if entire sectors - in China - are about to be wiped out entirely, but I do know technical short selling, when I see it. And I see the Bloomberg talking heads, blaming hedge fund liquidation. Calling BS on that fake news. 

China kills almost 300 partnerships with elite foreign universities in places like New York, London and Hong Kong, after private tutoring ban (SouthChinaPost)

$FXI China - Was taken down precisely below the 200 week moving average, more than a week ago. I suppose this was designed to take out some stops, and apparently worked, but "fool me twice, shame on me"!  

To explain the above chart a little further, the blue lines you see on the chart are parallel to the upper purple line. What's obvious is that China is not even close to falling into a bear market, and once the short sellers collect on their bearish bets, Chinese stocks are going to be off to the races again.  I think the rebound could easily last into the end of the year, and I much prefer beaten down Chinese stocks, to over-bought US technology companies (for example), 

 The final thing I wanted to touch on this morning, was the reversal in Biotech stocks. 

$NBI - Pulls back to the 50 day moving average. It was one of the easiest trades. I've had the pleasure of making, in a long time. 

Take Care, AA 

Market Update 8/17/21- $VIX breakout, could lead to August Swoon!

 Looking at some longer term $VIX charts this morning, in order to try to determine, why the $VIX was sold - at yesterday's open. Turns out that 17.71 level is major resistance on a weekly chart. and the DCS chart! It also opened above the 50 day moving average, but was then hammered below the 17.17 level. This is significant, because a breakout on the $VIX - at these levels - is going to trigger sell orders. I'd be very cautious here! This looks like the perfect storm! $VIX 22.75 looks like st resistance, on the DCS chart, and the trend on the weekly chart. A breakout there will cause panic selling. Not really expecting that, this time of year, but we're seen August swoons in the past. 

$SPX - Looking at a short term view of the $SPX, you can see the S&P has traded into a little upturned triangle pattern. Liking a pullback to the 4319 level, to wrap up around the end of the month. That would set up for a Sept rally.  ST support is 4470 (which already broke overnight), with more support at the bottom of the pattern around the 4440 level. Resistance would be any retest of the highs or 4500. if it continues to hold up for another week. Doubtful... 

Funny, I alerted to a breakout on the $SPY, going into yesterday's close, and it did, but it's looking more like a false breakout this morning. 

AA 

Market Update 8/16/21 - a look at the week ahead

 Futures look weak, and no doubt the $VIX is bouncing out of the hole, as predicted last week. In fact the $VIX has traded into a bullish inverted head and shoulders pattern, so... 

$VIX (fear gauge) - Res @ 16.65, 18, 20 (of course), and 22 (going into next week), the Monday, after OPEX Friday. Could be the bulls are not going to get paid on their bullish call bets this time around? 

Looks like China growth has hit a speed bump, and now we know why it's been selling off for several months. 

Oil pulls back to the level I pointed out on last weeks chart - bullish consolidation.

I could spend another 2 hours on this update, but I got a late start. More in the next update. 

You can usually find the latest update pinned to my twitter home page.  

Until next time, good luck, AA 

Market Update - 8/13/21 - Friday The Thirteenth

 Happy Friday The 13th! Most traders are superstitious, but Friday the 13th is usually only bad luck for the bears, like most Fridays.   

Today was bad luck for investors, who held onto $WISH (context logic), going into today's earnings report! This is one of the stocks I've been trading, and I've been trading so many... I had to look to see if I still held this one, but thankfully I sold into the latest rally. 

$WISH - I like it once all the weak hands have been shaken out. I have a target, but "loose lips sink ships".   

$DIS (evil) Disney reported good earnings today. I like the gap fill target around 115 - 120, months from now. 

$UNG (NatGas) was seen higher in after market, but lower - this morning - in premarket. The pivot on that trade is going to be the 13.52 level. Could see a shakeout below there, but also see the 3X leveraged gas bear (chart) I posted, after yesterday's closing bell. Could see a Friday short squeeze! 

Again, see the update I posted after yesterday's closing bell, and have a great weekend. 

Also watch for this 29.69 level on the $DUST to break 

Take Care, and I'll see you next week, unless I see the need for another update. 

AA 

Market Update 8/12/21 - a look ahead at tomorrows trade

 The 3X natural Natural Gas bear got a dead cat bounce to the top of the bearish channel, so I'd want to be be long the leveraged gas bull going into the weekend. 

  

We also saw miners pull back, and the $GDM even managed to make a slightly lower low. I'd say we're close to the end of a bearish wave (5). 

$NUGT - If we happen to see a short squeeze in miners, and you're long the 3X leverages Bull (NUGT) - you're going to want to take profits around the $70 area. That would be a huge gift! 

I think Biotech is probably going to retest the recent high as well, and what better time to manipulate an entire sector, than going into Options expiration, next week?! I think I'd be careful being short anything right here, even China. 

We saw certain Chinese stocks hammered, but not what I would call a bearish reversal.  

$IQ - I incorrectly called this an index, last week. It's actually a stock. Thankfully I didn't own this one on Wednesday, but I might pick this one up for a bargain, once the short sellers are finished with it!  

See you tomorrow.

Good luck, AA 

  

Market Update 8/12/21 - This Is Ridiculous!

You know what's ridiculous? The number of sectors I've covered in the past several blogs, and I'm not even trading half of them. 

Today I made some notes, just to keep track of it all, and that looks something like this:  

Blogged Oil/energy bullish

$GOLD bullish

(miner $BTG)

Tech bullish

Biotech bearish (Eli Lily...)  

$USD bearish  

China pullback? 

I've mostly been stock picking (individual names), and that's a lot of work in itself, and each morning I use a stock scanner, or find a list of stocks through an alternative source, and then typically add another dozen stocks to my watch list. I don't usually like to reveal these picks, because I know I've been targeted by the hedgies in the past, but I have one I can share with you; as another example of how this market is trading differently than the one we were trading years ago.  

The Stock is called Neximmune, and I picked it out a few weeks ago. It's now run at least 20% off the lows, and where did it settle out yesterday? Just above the 20 day moving average. This - 20 day support - has become the norm., rather than the exception. I attribute some of it to program trading, but there are also many retail traders using moving averages. All you have to do is search the term "bottom picking" in YouTube, to find the information (videos). 

Moving averages 

Yesterday I pointed to a certain gold stock which was about to reach the 200 week moving average, and guess where is was bought. on the same day? 

$NEXI (Neximmune) - This is the stock I was just talking about above. It's one, I've been trading, so it's kind of a busy looking chart, but see (for example) the 20 day moving average (in pink). Both Tuesday and Wed., there was a clear breakout above that level, and yesterday's gap above the 20 day ma is a tell.   

What's a real tell is how the $SPX continues to be bought at the 50 day ma, and this has been going on for so long, it's become comical.

$SPX this is the chart from my public charts area. Shows how the 50 day continues to offer support. This is why you need to watch certain levels, and that advice is more valuable than any single trade I could ever recommend to you. For, if you give a man a fish, he eats for a day, but if you teach a man to fish, he eats for a lifetime. 

And if you're still unconvinced by the power of these moving averages, see the dreaded airline sector being bought at critical support on the chart below! 

$XAL (airlines) - bought at the 50 week moving average, just as it was back in October. Seeing a trend, yet? Of course it's being sold at the 200 week, but the buying at the 50 week, is way more pronounced.  

Getting back to this crazy market action. 

Yesterday, or was it the day before...? I recommended that I was bearish Biotech, but I'm uncertain on that, because only certain biotech funds have made new highs, while others continue to trade at the lower end of the range, and further due diligence is required. If you can short Eli Lily, or the fund I pointed to yesterday, that would probably be a good bet, but not the leveraged bear ETF. 

$LABD - 3X leveraged Biotech bull - sold at resistance. Bearish candlestick analysis. Taking this off the table.  

$GOLD - bounces out of the hole at the $1700 level. Don't have an upside target plotted yet... 

China looks like it may be due for a pullback, as I tweeted out yesterday. Forgot I was even covering China, but sold my long 3X China yesterday. 

Pull back time #China #Stocks IMO pic.twitter.com/v53bSeQsmk

— Veteran Market Timer (@3Xtraders) August 11, 2021

Gotta run, GL AA