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Tuesday, May 31, 2022

Market Update May 31st, 2022 - A look at the week ahead

 Hope you had a great weekend, and be sure to check out last weeks, weekly wrap-up - as I take a second look at "Last Weeks Monster Rally"! 

Volatility and volume should remain low this week, as many traders remain on vacation, but instead we see the $VIX bouncing out of the hole? Clues as to why that is, below.  

The market seems somewhat unpredictable here. Sell in May, and go away, might be the best strategy!  I've found over the past several months, that it's better to trade less often, and wait longer for golden opportunities to arise. 

1. The $VIX is bouncing off the 50 day ma this morning

2. The $VIX of the $VIX (the $VVIX) traded to a 2 year low last week. You don't hear the fake news, or the #FinTwit community talking about this!     

3. The $RVX (The Russell 2000 $VIX) found support at the 30 level. 

The $VXO  (Original Formula) no longer trades; Shame....! 

$VXO - I don't know why they decided to delist this (Original Formula) $VIX, when it was working so well!  



1. Knowing how the $VIX moves, and anticipating how the Options market is going to react is key to timing the rest of the market. 

2. Knowing what's really moving markets is also key to correctly and consistently timing markets. 

3. Never trust what the financial fake news is reporting. 

I wish I could give up on the fake news entirely, but it's a good contrarian indicator, and 10% of what is reported is still worth listening to. Maybe motley fool, or some other source, like the Street, would be worth subscribing too, but I'd still have to watch a few minutes of CNBC, every day, to get a good idea of what the false narrative of the day is. 

3. b. Don't trust anything you see on social networks. More people have lost money on Meme stocks, that those who have won, so who do you believe is really behind these pump and dump trades? 

Don't trust anyone on social media 

These bozos think you'll believe anything, if it's liked 80 times

The short term trend remains up. The long term trend remains up. The intermediate timeline what's really up in the air, and there's plenty of resistance below the 4500 level.  Even the 200 day moving average is trading at 4450! 

4. Charting techniques have changed.  If it were as easy as drawing a parallel channel, on the $SPX, then everyone would win, but you're better off watching moving averages, and not being so hyper-focused on one index. 

Here's a good example of what I'm talking about. 

$SOX - The recent action on the $SOX shows that the short sellers got squeeze -above the top of the channel - on Friday, but this index was only pumped to the 50 day moving average (target) and sold. You don't even need to draw a chart pattern to see that, and the same goes for Tech, and the QQQ's being driven above the 20 day moving average, ahead of a long holiday weekend. This was all you needed to know, to enjoy, yet another, "short squeeze Friday".   

Enjoy the rest of the week off, maybe the market will find some direction by next Monday, or next technical Tuesday.

Take care,  AA

   





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Saturday, May 28, 2022

Market Update Memorial Day Weekend - Taking Another look at last weeks Monster Rally

 Another look at last weeks Monster Rally  

The setup: 

In the linked video you'll find Fox News reject, Shepard Smith, setting the bear trap, with some fake news, on May, 20th, which just happened to be May Options Expiration. Notice the "markets in turmoil" headline, and the bear market theme. There's no other reason I can think of to run a story like this, unless you're intent on stealing investors money, because they could just as easily report the truth. 


And I'm not the only one who sees what looks like an attempted fraud being perpetrated against an uninformed public. 

   

CNBC fails to mention a lot of things, such as the fact that every Options Expiration Day is rigged. In fact I've seen them go out of their way to try to debunk the idea.... but anyone who's been paying any attention knows Options dates, and light volume trading holidays, are prime time for market manipulation. Knowing this, helped me call last weeks bottom in tech stocks, more than 2 weeks ago!  

$TARK - Notice how the lying financial fake news stopped showing $RKK chart? Think they don't know it's been trending up for over 2 weeks?  



"Look here, not there", as we continue to report from Davos! 

Back to the Energy Trade: 

Energy stocks close at all time highs - on yet another weekly OPEX, and contract expiration. 

$Oil service stocks - coincidence? 


The Leveraged Energy Bear $ERY makes a new all time low 

Oil - same thing -New recent highs! 

Natural Gas trading at new 13 year highs! 

I thought maybe we had seen the top in NatGas, but the trend remains, and if is continues, on light holiday volume - next week - the next target is $10. Coincidence? 

$Oil on the other hand looks like it wants to consolidate lower, going into the fall.  

Go back and look at where energy has spiked.  

$SHEL being pumped...



Of course the short sellers in the tech space got squeezed, and when Jon Najarian came on CNBC Friday, it looked like he was going to start crying! lol  


Many so called pros, and money managers were completely blindsided by last weeks rally, because they have no technical skill, and these bozos will be looking for a new line of work soon, if they're caught fighting the trend in a bull market.  

When all is said and done, this sell-off into May Opex, looked just like the covid sell-off. Break the charts, try to shake the weak hands by making another lower low, and then when Options Expiration is over, just buy your positions back. It's such a game... and too much waiting around for these OPEX dates, and holidays. 

Without revealing any critical targets; this is what the past 2 months looks like in the Vanguard FTSE Europe ETF.  

$VGK This is what the longest weekly sell-off since 2001 looks like on a monthly chart. A big nothing burger!   


 






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Friday, May 27, 2022

Market Update 5/27/22 - Another Short Squeeze Friday, Natural Gas, and the Golden Mean

Another Short Squeeze Friday

Looks like the market is going to squeeze the shorts for the second Friday in a row, and as I reminded you in the last update - Dated May 25th - never trust the traders on CNBC, and "never sell a dull market".  

To be honest I only have a few traders following me on my private twitter account @3XTradersLive, and unless things pick up substantially over the next few weeks, I'll no longer be accepting new paying members. I may decide to leave it open, and not require payment up front, or maybe only require $2, in order to weed out the bots, and the trolls, but unless I can draw a crowd like I did in the early days...; It's just not worth the added stress in my life.

I did call the bottom, and we've enjoyed the biggest rally we've seen in nearly 2 months, and that's not even counting today's continued short squeeze.... More on that, when we get to the golden mean...   

Natural Gas 

1. Anyone who's been following me on my regular twitter @3Xtraders, knows I've been covering Natural Gas, and the energy trade very closely over the past several weeks, so when #NatGas dropped back below $9 on Thursday 5/26/22 - just ahead of Contract Expiration I noticed it! In fact I charted that top in real time! 

2. Of course this only like the 12th time I've tried to find the top in NatGas, and I'm still not sure this is "the top", or just a (short term) top. I think that depends on whether we see a mad rush for the exits ahead of the long holiday. 

I'm sure you've heard the saying, "sell in May, and go away", and that saying seems to apply to the bloated energy sector. Will the powers that be take profits, ahead of the summer break?  

3. I also recognized where Natural Gas bounced, because I immediately knew where to look!  

The Golden Mean 

What is this, golden mean, you ask? It's simply a term for the 61.8% Fibonacci (pullback) retracement, target, and if you still don't know what I've talking about, you have some home work to do over the holiday. 




I've seen the Jackasses on CNBC's Fast Money giggle like school girls when mentioning Fibonacci ratios, but only a jackass would poo-poo something that works on a consistent basis, and something that's been programmed into the Algorithms that control basically every aspect of every market.

Is it any wonder that Jon Najarian was dead wrong about this weeks trade? He didn't know where to look! He's so hyper-focused on the $VIX, and hoping his options will pay, that he totally missed the forest through the trees, and now the boat has sailed without him!

Think back to last Oct., when these fast money clowns tried to convince us that October is a volatile month. I remember it well, because I poo-poo'd that nonsence at the time. 

Looking at a monthly view of the $VIX any fool can see that October isn't any more volatile than any other month. Either Fast Money was mistaken. 2. They were bearish, and spinning a bearish narrative. 3. They were really bullish, and trying to throw retail investors off.? 
 




I think one thing is for sure, these influencers helped drive negative market sentiment, and that may have helped drive the $VIX higher than it would have gone normally.   

One last thing: Today's short squeeze is obviously going to be in heavily shorted tech stocks, as we see the opening bid on the NASDAQ raised above the 20 day moving average. 

Of course that is going to trigger buy signals... and the short sellers should remain trapped into the long weekend, and the rest is history!  

I'd expect volatility and volume to remain super low through next week, so I wouldn't be expecting much as far as market direction. 

June is a window dressing month, but I would expect the short sellers to return from vacation - on June 6th - and try to trash the market one more time, before they go on break again, heading into July. 

Have a great Memorial Day Weekend! 
AA 


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Wednesday, May 25, 2022

Market Update 5/25/22 - Does Volume & Volatility Really Need to Spike In Order To Confirm A Market Bottom?

 Does Volume & Volatility Really Need to Spike In Order To Confirm A Market Bottom?

This is the theory I watched one of the Najarian Brothers push on CNBC this morning, and you see this all over twitter as well; the idea that, the $VIX needs to spike, before buyers come in, on heavy volume. 

My take on this: 

I have to laugh because I've been trading the $VIX for over a decade, and only now - in 2022 - does it seem like every retail investor is an expert on the $VIX!  

While it's true, that once you see capitulation - a shaking out of all the weak hands - like we saw during the Covid crash, when the $VIX nearly spiked to 100, and I remember it well, because this is the, "pie in the sky", number ($VIX 100) the bears were shooting for, but that was in the midst of a real crisis, and even government insiders - in congress - were selling...

1. This pullback started around the end of the year - 2021 - because it was finally time to take profits, after the market overshot, after everyone was sent $600 in the mail, and that money went to fund a fake bubble in "Peloton", & "Netflix" memberships, "Robin Hood" accounts, tech stocks, and port loads of Chinese junk, which was no doubt purchased at "Target", "Walmart", and on "Amazon". 

Maybe the smart money took profits, and went on vacation in Barbados? This would help explain the dull market. More on that in a minute.  

2. How many times does the $VIX need to test the top of this range, before we see a return to complacent $VIX numbers? I'm counting 4 times now, since Dec. 2001, and I believe it's the bears who have become, so complacent, at this point, that they don't even believe such a thing (as a return to a normal $VIX baseline) is even possible. No, they actually believe that a return to a $VIX below 20, is a sell signal! 

I've never seen a dumber trading community as the one I'm seeing in 2022, and the rise of Redditt... and Fintwit, in social media, has a lot to do with that. If you've ever looked into what is being pushed on twitter, as a contrarian, you just have to shake your head.... One day last week, when Bitcoin was crashing, #StockmarketCrash was also trending, and nothing could be further from the truth. And remember when #FAANG stocks were being pumped in social media in 2021? I do!  Where are Twitter's fact checkers when this type of disinformation is being propagated? Twitter has become a den of thieves. And that's one of the reasons you no longer see me handing out many free targets there. BTW Come join us at @3XTradersLive is you want relevant charts, targets, and predictions! 

3. Once again Jon Najarian seems to be using his position at CNBC as an attempt to help his short position, and line his own pockets. This should be illegal, but you see this all the time, and even the fed hierarchy were trading the market, while the whole time they were the ones controlling the narrative. Then they liquidated everything - right at the top. Think that was coincidence? Not to mention the fed member banks who continue their trading operations, the same banks who nearly drove the county into bankruptcy in 2008?!  

4. "NEVER SELL A DULL MARKET" We are trading into the summer break after all, and the market action, even in commodities can only be described as dull, minus a few shakeouts in certain retailers, and tech stocks like $SNAP.  

Speaking of $SNAP - It could be a while before many of these beaten down tech names, snap back, but I like it here, or maybe even a little lower. 



Funny, we didn't see Jon Najarian come on Worldwide Exchange to point out the capitulation in that name, or countless others! 


I can't say for sure that the bottom isn't going to drop out of this market, but I think all the hype being generated is due to an overwhelming amount of bearish sentiment. 

You need real targets, not hype, and emotion, being generated on social media, and by the fake news.

 Join @XTradersLive now, for the low price of $49, and get daily updates, and great calls like this for an entire month! 

Take Care, AA 
  
 



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Tuesday, May 24, 2022

Market Update 5/24/22 - Market Futures Blood Red As Predicted

 Futures Blood Red As Predicted

 Looks like this on a 15 min. view of the S&P E-mini Futures chart - or "ES1": 



I predicted this move to the downside - on our private twitter @3XTradersLive - just ahead of yesterday's close.

 How did I do it?  

 1. When I reviewed the $VIX charts, I could tell that the $VIX sellers lacked conviction. 

2.  I didn't like where the $VIX was sold yesterday. It was an obvious take down, probably by some fast money traders. 

That's about all I can say about that, without giving away some valuable trade secrets, but I can tell you that this mornings sell-off has nothing to do with $SNAP being down another 25%. 

Join @XTradersLive now, for the low price of $49, and get daily updates, and great calls like this for an entire month! 

Tech continues to suck

I've been bearish on tech since Dec., when CNBC was still clinging to their bullish narrative  

This was back when everyone was bullish tech, just as you see traders bullish on Energy today, and that's a sector I continue to watch closely. 

Energy looks like the next sector to be pumped n dump 

$XOM and several other high fliers continued to press the recent highs again yesterday. 

$MCP trades into an ending diagonal triangle top - one of the most bearish chart patterns of all.  

 


 $XOM is another one we've been watching, as the pump n dump crews rush to take out the $98 target. Make that an even $100, knowing how these lunatics operate..! 


I suppose the crooked banks have bought Calls all the way out until the 4th of July, so there's your time line. 

Of Course Oil and Gas should continue to lead, but the charts are confusing. 

$Oil has traded into an unknown triangle pattern, but looks like it's about to resolve. 

This is only a 10 min. chart,and I'm not expecting any big moves... 

$USO     



NatGas acts like it wants to trade to $9, and a retest of the recent highs certainly isn't out of the question, as traders continue to cover their short bets ahead of the Memorial Day holiday. Maybe even 9.40 by the end of the month, when contracts expire. 

There is the remote chance we could see a Hindenburg omen type event. That happens when you have one sector making new highs, while the rest of the market is making new lows, and this ends with a sudden re-balancing. It's not a common occurrence, or something you can predict. 

That's all I got, and the opening bell rings in 15 min. 

Take Care, AA 


  



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Monday, May 23, 2022

Market Update 5/23/2022 - New NASDAQ Chart - Advanced Charting Techniques

 I've blogged before on short term charts, and how inaccurate they can be, and how the $SPX is continually manipulated, along with the $VIX, so you can't really rely on 1, or 2 charts. It takes a lot of work to time the market, and this is why money money managers refuse to believe, it can be done. I can assure you, that if you believe the market can't be timed, and give up trying to time it, then it is going to be "impossible (for you) to time the market".  

Look the market has remained weak, since profit taking started in Dec., with China leading the way... then it was the cryto crash, and treasury markets.... 

Now you don't hear anything about Chinese stocks. Instead you hear the fake financial news reporting that this sell-off is somehow "historic", even after the bears had their asses handed to them on a silver platter - once again - on Friday. 

And this brings me to my first chart: 

The DOW rallies 600 points off the lows, to breakout above the previous low (31.2). 


Same goes for the $SPX.





 I even called this in real time, as they started reporting on the longest weekly decline since 2001, and an official bear market. All lies, Wall Street uses to deceive the masses; complete with Monkey Pox, and even Ebola breakouts. You can't make this shit up!    


Technically the NASDAQ has ended down 7 weeks in a row, breaking some kind of record, but you can't even compare this little selloff to 2001, or even the covid crash 

$NYSE - comparing the longest weekly sell-off, since 2001, to the covid crash. 



Listening to the fake news you would think the bears are winning, but nothing could be further from the truth. It looked like the bears might somehow win on Friday OPEX, but they were robbed.

But the big question, I'm left with is, do these little shakeouts to a lower low mater? Are they technically significant?  And does this rule out wave "5", as seen on the chart above? 

Take another look at the $NYSE chart above, and you'll see that it didn't touch a new intra-day low. 

What about the pattern we've been watching for over a year? It looks like it's broken right? Knowing that the price action often throws over beyond the target, on that type of pattern, means that we still can't rule that pattern out. 

It seems to me that the powers that be are either trying to make things sound much worse than they are in order to run cover for a fed that won't do it's job. If things are bad, then American's aren't going to question, a fed that pauses rate hikes, or a government that continues to throw money at manufactured crises. The latest excuse to print $40b is Ukraine, but who knows where the money really goes? 

But before long the criminal cabal, posing as our elected government, will stop the printing presses, and only then will you see a historic sell-off. 

I'm talking about the end of the 100 year bull market, and the beginning of a multi-decade bear market, if not the end of civilization as we know it. When? Timelines aren't predictable, but I'd say within the next 10 years, for sure! The climate is already collapsing, and the economy can't be far behind. 

    

Saving the best for last: 

I've added an updated #NASDAQ chart to the public charts area, which shows that we're in wave 4, and if you know anything about Elliot Wave theory, you know wave 4's often come to an end in complicated sideways patterns. 



2. Another thing to note on that chart is that Wave "2" was such a minuscule pull-back, that it explains the length and duration for wave 4. It's textbook! 

This is awesome, because I was starting to give up on Elliott Wave theory, now that we see the machines controlling market movements, but this renews my faith in a technical theory that I've spent over a decade mastering! 

If you'd like access to the best charts on the internet, and all of my $VIX charts, and sentiment indicators, then you should join us on our private twitter feed at @3XTradersLive. 

A $49 donation to this website gets you in the door. Price subject to change after 1st month. 

Simply make you paypal donation, using the link in the side menu, and I'll let you in! 

Join today and I'll even give you my favorite buy and hold stock for 2022. That alone is worth the price of admission! If you're not completely satisfied I'll even refund your money, so you have nothing to lose! Act now, on this limited time offer!  

I have a lot of charting to get caught up on, so I gotta run. 

Hope to see you there, AA 

  


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Friday, May 13, 2022

Market Update 5/13/2022 5:55 AM - Now It's Time For the Annual "Dash for Trash"!

The Dash for Trash! 

Well, it's been over a week, since my last blog, and the bears has been unsuccessful in their attempts to cause much panic selling, except in a few already beaten up sectors like tech, and Crypto, which I feel we need to include as a sector, since it seems like when crypto sells off, so does tech. And let's not forget about China, which I predicted would take several weeks to pull back, after the run we saw earlier in the year. 

Here's that call:

Of course, the lame stream media tries to make this sell-off sound exciting, and confuse the masses, by using certain buzz words.... and even by having guests on to try to explain away the $VIX  - out #1 market indicator - but at the end of the day we've only seen a few 300 point moves on the DOW, and even though the Dow was down 500 points - at one point - during yesterday's trade, it managed to end the day down only 100 points. This is important, because this early spring shakeout was only intended to shake out the meme traders, and tech junkies. 

The DOW chart - for comparison purposes - Keep in mind a 3% move on the dow is about a 1000 points, and here we are still trading above the 30,000 level! 


We did see Energy pull back, which no doubt spooked some investors, but again, this is a small sector


Getting The Main Event The Dash for Trash! 

The dash for trash is an event which takes place on Wall Street every spring - for as long as I can remember. You wouldn't think the market could be so predictable, but you typically see retail investors shaken out of their favorite stocks, in the beginning of the year, before the sharks go on a bottom of the barrel feeding frenzy. Even the so called covid crash - which really had very little to do with covid - was sold in march, and bought in April (30 days later). Same thing in 2021. Why should this time be different? 

We've already seen massive gains in a few names, like $COOK, and Carvana, and $RIDE, to name a few! 

In short until the market can sell off in a bearish channel, and extend losses for more than a month, then I'm going to continue picking bottoms. 

It's not like they (the controllers) have a choice but to continue throwing endless amounts of cash at this (ponzi) market, as they did when the market crashed in 2020, because they know, they're only 1 negative feedback loop way from the next Great Depression. 

As long as investors believe the fed has "tools", which can prevent a financial dooms day, then free money is going to be put to work. Hyperventilating over Russia, Inflation, or even quantitative tightening isn't going to change that. 

Of course a financial day of reckoning is coming, and in our lifetimes. This bull market is nearly 100 years old, and it has already traded into a massive liquidity bubble, and even Warren Buffett calls the directives market a financial "time bomb". 

BUFFETT: This is the 'time bomb' in the markets businessinsider.com

 I can't say for certain that the global collapse in equities hasn't already begun, but since Wall Street is picking up the trash, as they do every spring, I think not.

If you'd like access to the best charts on the internet, and all of my $VIX charts, and sentiment indicators, then you should join us on our private twitter feed at @3XTradersLive. 

A $49 donation to this website gets you in the door. Price subject to change after 1st month. 

Simply make you paypal donation, using the link in the side menu, and I'll let you in! 

Join today and I'll even give you my favorite buy and hold stock for 2022. That alone is worth the price of admission! If you're not completely satisfied I'll even refund your money, so you have nothing to lose! Act now, on this limited time offer!  

I have a lot of charting to get caught up on, so I gotta run. 

Hope to see you there, AA 





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Friday, May 6, 2022

Market Update 5/6/2022 Bearish Head & Shoulders Patterns, and The True H&S Pattern

 Bearish Head & Shoulders Patterns, and The True H&S Pattern 

Yesterday we saw stocks give back all the gains from the fed relief rally, and more, but we're only retesting the recent lows, and short squeeze season is upon us. 

But today I want to talk about H&S patterns, and if you follow the FinTwit community I'm sure you've seen this one. 




This twitter user has over 400k followers, and can't even identify a pattern, or draw one correctly. This is great news, for those of us who know what we're doing, because we can use the general public as a contrarian indicator!   

Even though I pointed out this pattern on Tuesday, I can tell you, it's not a reliable pattern. It's also drawn incorrectly, as the neckline should be right sloping.

Of course now you see this pattern being tweeted ad nauseam.... 

What's wrong with this pattern? If you have to ask, then you haven't done your home work on Head and Shoulders patterns.  Chart School Head and Shoulders stockcharts.com 

1. For one, the duration (timeline) is too long. Should be more like 5 months   

2. This is only 1 pattern, on one index. Again you haven't done your home work!  

3. It's actually a contrarian indicator, because the lowest intelligence traders are pointing to it.

 This tweet also got 2 likes, and that's a bullish contrarian indicator. 

I showed you the correct EW pattern; the same one I've been pointing to for over a year now? 

I even pointed it out again, in last weeks contest - to win free entry into our private twitter feed -  but nobody who follows this blog could even tell me what pattern is called! lol 

I shouldn't laugh, because this experiences just proves that I'm not getting through to 99% of my audience, and wasting my time here.   

Market Update 4/26/22 - A Chance To Win FREE Entry INTO 3XTraders Private Twitter Feed! 


That contest has since ended, as it has become clear to me that traders would rather be bearish than learn about charting, and trading, or even win on a consistent basis. Traders would rather rely on their gut instinct, and hope they win, even though that is a losing strategy! 


The true H&S pattern


The true H&S pattern can be found on a couple charts - and the duration is correct 

1. On the $VIX - this a super-bullish indicator for the broader market 





2. The Dow - I've blogged quite a bit on the Dow this year, and for good reason. It's not a leading indicator, so it still needs to outperform. After all, we're not in a bear market, as I would define it - lower lows, followed by lower highs. I mean, you could point to China, or Tech, or some other obscure sector, and conclude that they are trending bearish, but not the broader market. Remember the fake bull market is a balancing act. Remember back when Obama took office, it was healthcare, that lead, and if Romney had won, he was going to sell the same idea....   

3. What about the Airlines? I've pointed to that bullish inverse H&S many times!  





4. The $SPLV - this is the low volatility $SPX. While it's not technically a true (inverse) H&S pattern, it has some very similar characteristics.... 


There is a bearish H&S pattern on the shorter term $SPX, but again, the duration is wrong (too short). 


As you can see there's more that goes into technical analysis, then just cherry picking patterns you like, while ignoring the rules that govern certain patterns. 

2. It takes quite a bit of experience to differentiate when you're faced with conflicting patterns, as well as to have the discipline to not trade, when you're not sure. That takes discipline!   

Good Luck, AA 


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Thursday, May 5, 2022

Market Update 5/5/2022 - Here We Go Again

The FOMC 

 After yesterday's FOMC announcement, we got another nice relief rally. 

This is typical, that the $VIX comes down; whenever the Fed announces their intentions. This offers some "clarity", and clarity is the opposite of uncertainty. Some times the rally is delayed until the next day, but this is the case, 90% of the time.   

The lame stream media will tell you that the market rallied, because a 75 basis point rate hike was apparently taken off the table, after they had reported - earlier in the week - that the market had somehow priced in a 50% chance of a 75% hike? I saw that as more like a million to 1 chance, not 50%! Perhaps the market makers lowered expectations in order to beat expectations?  

Judging by Chairman Powell lackadaisical attitude, over the past several months, how could anyone expect anything different than what the market was expecting?   

Investor sentiment: Of course the bulls are trying to make yesterday's rally into something more than that, but investor intelligence is not looking too bright, according to the comments I'm seeing in my public twitter feed. I even got trolled by a follower, ahead of yesterday's close! 

  If you recall this is the same round number target the bulls set their goal at last time... 

I even blogged on the subject on April 29th - Re: the $SPX 4300 level 

The DOW was also sold at the 50 day moving average. 

Until a real direction can be established then I'm going to use relief rallies like the one we saw yesterday, as selling opportunities. 

I thought we might see a short squeeze on the heals of the fed announcement, and that's good enough for me! I told my people to sell it, and I took profits as well, and you see where futures are trading this morning... we're not exactly off to the races, as I though we might be, and with May OPEX only a couple weeks away! The window for a tradable rally has come and gone, unless we're looking at a low volume summer rally.  

Until the $VIX returns to normal, I would remain cautious. Of course you're going to miss a tremendous short squeeze, once a bottom is confirmed, and that's where my expertise comes in, and all the charts you need to trade this market have already been tweeted to our private twitter feed. 

A $49 donation gets you 50% off (discounted) access for an entire month @3Xtraderslive. 

Good Luck, AA 


    




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Wednesday, May 4, 2022

Market Update 5/4/2022 - There's Always A (rigged) Bull Market Somewhere

 After last weeks little shakeout in Energy, we're seeing Oil and Energy, and even Natural Gas bounce back. 

As you probably know by now, Canada is the canary in the coal mine, no pun intended. I used to be able to chart coal... until stock charts did away with the index. 

Canada: Continues to trend up even after last weeks bear raid. 

1. First chart shows where energy was taken down, with Canada, and even Bloomberg finally reported that Canada has been holding up, thanks to the commodities bubble. 


2. The updated chart shows Canada is still trading in an ascending, contracting, triangle pattern. Only short term traders were shaken out.... 

This morning: Oil is leading the energy sector, as I predicted it would, yesterday afternoon.
At this rate it could be July. or even August, before the market corrects, and this is just another good example of why you need to go with the flow, rather that try to predict timelines. 

One thing I have learned covering this energy rally, is that money is methodically being put to work in Oil, and then Natural Gas, regardless of demand or weather, or Russia.... and this is helping to drive the entire energy sector.    
 

Oil vs Natural Gas




Another thing I've learned is that one sector is pumped and dumped, and then another sector. 

Energy vs Tech 




This is why Jim Cramer always says, "there's always a bull market somewhere".  

Pump n' dump tech stocks, and then do the same in the energy sector. 

I'm not sure how long they can continue to keep the shell game alive, but I suspect this has already been going on for a very long time, and it will continue a very long time! 

They only waited to sell Tech in 2022, in order to defer capital gains tax... so they may not sell Energy until 2023?  

One last thing: Did you see my target on Amazon taken out last week?! Monster call! 


Take Care, AA 



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Monday, May 2, 2022

Market Update - Weekly/ Monthly Wrap-up - Now does this look like a bear market?

 It's very unusual for the market to sell-off on the last day of the month, but that's what we saw on Friday. 


Now, if futures were down another 3% this  (Monday) morning, and we were seeing some follow-through (to the downside), maybe I could start looking for a bear market, but instead we're seeing futures up. 

Friday's sell-off wasn't even that bad, with the Dow ending 230 points lower than the low we saw on Wed.

$INDU - retest Wednesday's low. "This is nothing", as I keep tweeting.   

 


$NYSE -  you can see for yourself last months pullback is not even compatible to March 2020.  



 

The fake news can call last months action "the worst sell-off since March 2020", but that's not saying much. Even Fox News - over the weekend - was reporting on Friday's sell-off, as if it was historic, and taking a page from CNBC, they showed the 1 day ticker/ chart for maximum fear. 

The lame stream media also continues to report that there is some kind of, "Covid crisis in China", but then they fail to mention that Chinese internet stocks were up some 8% last week, with the Hang Seng up 3 day's in a row. 

$BABA was up another 6.8% on Friday!

3. Bloomberg finally report that Canada was down - last week - so they obviously know commodities, and especially Canadian energy stocks are only thing holding the $TSX up. Funny they didn't report that Canada was making new all time highs, the week before! 


I'll update again, when I can add some charts, but this obviously isn't a bear market.  

There's always the possibility that the recent weakness we've seen turns into something more, but it looks oversold to me, and the fed reports this week, and I would expect plenty of short covering ahead of the announcement.... 

Take Care, AA 



 




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