7 er 6 Stocks continue to drive Markets higher

 Yesterday's action was a prime example of how FAANG (by a different name (the magnificent 7) are being used to drive the Dow, and the $SPX, not to mention the $QQQ. 

Yesterday, we saw Apple pull  back slightly, on a couple negative news reports, and the market's answer to that, was to pump the other 6 critical market high fliers to the moon. 

Of course they're still using the same leveraged FAANG stock ETFs to help accomplish this; including ProShares Ultra QQQ - one of yesterday's top performers.

 $QLD ProShares Ultra QQQ - up 1.45% - Typical Monday 

$AAPD - the 1X Apple Bear - looks like it's being sold (short), for added leverage. 

I pointed out the same thing earlier in the year; and these leveraged ETF's have actually been used to

drive markets, in both directions since 2007, but this trend continues to ramp up!  

There's even a 3X NFLX fund which holds 8,384 shares of  $NFLX, and that was up a whopping 8.81% yesterday! 

$IX3XNFLX - up 8.81% on yesterday's pump 

Amazon is another one 

$AMZD - Leveraged Bear ETF - hammered to a new recent low. There's just no other explanation for why this chart is working so well. Manipulators gonna manipulate. 

Truly uncanny, and I could spend the entire day offering more examples... 

What else is new is that Stock Screeners are being used to buy the 20 day moving averages... 

Below is a good example from Barchart.com 

The 2 examples above are clearly contributing to the market bubble we find ourselves trading in.

This seems awfully short sighted, but as long as fast money is moving markets, these short term averages will continue to work.  

Take care, 

AA 

CNBC - Fast Money - Karen Finerman admits she owns Bitcoin, $SPX, Tech Stocks Update

Karen Finerman admits she owns Bitcoin. 

Less than 1 week later; a flash crash in Bitcoin.   

It flashcrashed nearly 10% overnight, and nothing reported on it.  

What a great contrarian indicator CNBC Fast Money is!

I don't know what any serious money manager would be buying Bitcoin, and then admitting it on television, but apparently this isn't the first time...

Interviewing Karen Finerman on her opinion of bitcoin and where it's headed is more useless than an ejection seat on a helicopter. Literally all she knows is buying shitty value traps and holding them for years, literally zero idea of how to trade. #FAIL

— CR (@CashRocket) November 17, 2020

The Truth about Bitcoin 

The truth is Bitcoin has been trading in a sideways range - like most everything else - for going on 5 years now! Is a worthless thing, which is backed by nothingness, and to compare it to gold is utter idiocy.    

Homework 

Chart Bitcoin 

Find where Bitcoin was trading in Oct 2021, and see what happened next 

CNBC Fast Money Final Trades:
Tim Seymour: Schlumberger $SLB $34.82
Jeff Mills: Prudential $PRU $110.99
Karen Finerman: Bitcoin $BTC $61,758.53
Guy Adami: Biogen $BIIB $269.50@timseymour @jeffmills_bmt @karenfinerman @GuyAdami @CNBCFastMoney @CNBCFastMoney

— Trakfeed (@trakfeed) October 18, 2021

The broader market? 

Don't even get me started... 

Yes, I'm still Net Long in the 401k account, but I'm unimpressed with yesterday's Monday morning surprise to the upside, in the same sector - the only sector - that's been pumped for the past several years, Tech. 

$PSE - NYSE Arca Tech 100 Index - Trading at all time highs 

$DJUSTC Dow Tech - Not much of a breakout, but a good thorough retest of the 2021 bubble level. 

The SPX?

Key support on $SPX market futures 4662. I question if yesterday's breakout will last... pic.twitter.com/tONa7WqepA

— Veteran Market Timer (@3Xtraders) December 12, 2023

Take Care, AA

A November To Remember?

 

 A November To Remember

 

This was the false narrative I saw being pushed by the lame stream media, immediately after Friday closing bell; "A November To Remember". 

I also saw someone on Bloomberg refer to it as the "everything rally",

which is a bold faced lie.  

Anyone who is still buying the dip on China, and Energy stocks, would have to agree....

The powers that be continue to sell energy, and buy tech #Stocks. The sector rotation; I've been predicting for months

— Veteran Market Timer (@3Xtraders) November 16, 2023

 

Granted this has been a nice rally, but looking back at recent history, it was really nothing to write home about. 

$NYSE - comparing the past 3 November rallies - 

Bloomberg also referred to the short sellers being "sad", which takes the cake, when most pro short sellers covered in early Nov., ahead of the Thanksgiving break. 

I later saw the fool who hosts "Balance of Power", pose the question to a scheduled guest... "how does the November rally help Joe Biden in 2024" - paraphrasing. Then it all made sense... and just as I predicted earlier in the year, stocks would rally in order to help the current administration....

How much longer can this rally last? 

Not much longer - I think - now that we see the Dow - which typically lags - catching up. 

That was another prediction... that Dow stocks would lead.... and I think we will see more of that in 2024.

#DowJones breaks out. There's that "new leadership", I was blogging about weeks/months ago! #Dow

— Veteran Market Timer (@3Xtraders) December 1, 2023

I was planning to send out a newsletter telling folks  that I had gotten the 401k out of the bond fund - which I did - but I never got around to it, and since I actually went all in on the Small Cap fund - I was already invested in - I didn't see any urgency...  

I think the marker can go a little higher, as we get closer to Hanukkah, which just happens to fall on OPEX Friday. That's the date I'm watching. 

Take Care, 

AA 

Best Decision I Ever Made

 A few weeks/ months ago I blogged about how I was going to start trading commodities more, and that has turned out to be one of the best decisions I ever made! 

The powers that be continue to sell energy, and buy tech #Stocks. The sector rotation; I've been predicting for months

— Veteran Market Timer (@3Xtraders) November 16, 2023

Every day I take a little more profits on my #NatGas short, but Natural Gas has been known to overshoot. It can fall much further... pic.twitter.com/sf5S0BbyeP

— Veteran Market Timer (@3Xtraders) November 17, 2023

To give you some idea, I closed that trade up 25%, and by diversifying into some commodities trades, I'm up 50% in the past 3 months.   

Meanwhile: Fast Money has remained bullish energy all year 

Is fast money is still bullish energy names? @GuyAdami

— Veteran Market Timer (@3Xtraders) November 16, 2023

Guy Adami didn't read my tweet on the show, but the very same day, he did own up to being totally wrong on oil drillers, yet, he still doubled down on $OIH, and that was good for a 3 day rally. 

You can catch the whole show at this link, if you're dumb enough to pay for CNBC Pro

One of the reasons Oil is falling off a cliff:  

Biden Breaks Campaign Promise in Allowing New Offshore Drilling wsj.cm 

I suspect another reason Oil, and Natural Gas are getting killed is due to the coming economic crisis, because copper is also falling.  

This morning, the broader market continues to trade like crap, yet Oil is falling off a cliff.

Oil futures - 1 min. chart view, as it's being reported that a decision by OPEX... may be postponed. Yeah, a lot of good these so-called "production cuts" have done for the price of oil! 

In related news, Carter Worth covered his oil short, weeks ago, once again proving he isn't the chart master, CNBC claims he is.  

You can catch that free video here: Chart Master: What's next for oil and energy stocks?

The reason Carter Worth gives for covering his oil short, is that oil was down $20. 

Word of caution: We routinely see big moves in commodities - in either direction - and that carries with it, added risk, and especially when trading on margin, or trading leveraged ETF's. 

Take care, and have a Happy Thanksgiving! 

AA 

AI Bubble Already at or "Near It's Peak" says Morgan Stanley

It was only a couple months ago, when a boom in AI technology spending was credited with a historic short squeeze in NVIDIA $NVDA shares, and now Morgan Stanley is already calling it a bubble? 

 

If Nvidia Is a Proxy for the AI Bubble, It’s Nearing Its Peak, Morgan Stanley Says yahoo.com

 Of course I've been pounding my fist on the table on this for several weeks, and I even called the recent reversal in AI stocks. Morgan Stanley is a little late to the party!  

$UBOT (2X leveraged AI BULL ETF) Too bad there isn't a bear ETF to match this fund! 

Judging by the volume on that chart, the AI pump began to take shape just before short covering ahead of the Memorial Day holiday, and that's really what this rally was all about. 

Of course once the hedge fund managers return from their summer homes, they're probably going to take this market back down, just as they drove it up, and I'm already seeing several micro-sectors crushed - for example Airlines.    

China Bubble Bursting 

China actually led this entire tech rally, with reports that the China reopening was going to lead a recovery. Then only a few weeks ago, Chinese stocks were once again being pumped, with talk of "stimulus"? Another fortune cookie crumbles. 

China’s economy suffers new blow as exports drop 14% in July cnn.com 

China's car sales fall for 2nd month in July as price war continues europe.autonews.com 

Energy and commodity prices falling 

Oil prices drop 1% on fears of weaker demand reuters.com 

Glencore profits halve as commodity prices retreat financialtimes.com 

Actually the bubble - after all the covid (excuse) spending -  is still unwinding. This is the price you pay for over-printing in order to try to avoid a recession. All the money printers have managed to do is to temporarily inflate prices; on everything from cars, to equities.  

Now comes deflation, and a natural wave of contraction, after an artificially created boom. 

When? 

 It seems like it takes several weeks for the powers that be to engineer a sell-off. 

Just look at how long it took for them to take Apple down. 

Speaking of Apple 

The lame stream media is trying to make a big deal out of the pullback in $AAPL shares, but what they fail to mention is that tech is not selling off. Most big tech stocks were up again yesterday, as the marketeers continue to play a game of Whac-A-Mole. 

I refuse to play that game. I can't sit in a leveraged bear ETF for weeks at a time waiting for a market to correct, when Wall Street sharks would rather play a game of cat and mouse, than take profits.

In certain situations you can hold a leveraged ETF long term, but leveraged funds do not retain their value in a sideways market, and if you happen to get caught on the wrong side of a nasty reversal, you can forget about ever getting back to even. 

Thankfully, I saw the short squeeze coming, after memorial day, but until tech enters a real corrective wave, the short trade is going to be a waste of time.

The Broader Market 

This morning market futures are weak, as expected: 

$SPX market futures lower as expected https://t.co/WqQn1ebfta

— Veteran Market Timer (@3Xtraders) August 8, 2023

Yesterday's rally was only to a lower high, so I suspect we aren't finished building a base, 

Take Care, 

AA 

  

$VIX DOES SOMETHING IT HASN'T DONE SINCE 2015!

 Since CNBC likes to report a lot of fake stats (as I pointed out in yesterday's blog); I thought I'd reveal a real historic move we're seeing on the $VIX.

What is the $VIX? The VIX Index is a calculation designed to produce a measure of constant, 30-day expected volatility of the U.S. stock market Source CBOE.com 

The $VIX predicts future volatility, by monitoring the options market, but more and more the $VIX is continually beaten down on a daily, weekly, and monthly basis, in order to ensure that the bullish Options pay. Of course when the market is made up of 90% bulls, it's quite easy to overpower the bears, and especially during periods of light volume, as we've seen again this summer. 

Does this mean the $VIX is broken? In a way it does... but I prefer to call the $VIX rigged, in that it's continually broken, on purpose, yet it is also allowed to occasionally run; in order to cause panic selling, and reset the options market. 

For Example: Think back to the Trump crash (AKA the Covid Crash). The $VIX was allowed to run for exactly 1 month - from the end of  February OPEX, until March OPEX (precisely). Also notice the setup - seen on the chart below - for the previous 3 years. 

I'm convinced the whole crisis was staged in order to help get rid of Boris Johnson, and Donald Trump, just as 9/11 was used for nefarious purposes.

 See: Unusual Options Market Activity and the Terrorist Attacks of September 11, 2001. introduction jstor.org 

Jon Najarian is mentioned in the above article, as a someone who concluded - from the trading activity - that someone knew that 9/11 was going to occur.  

I wasn't actively trading during the time of 9/11, but it's a fascinating study!  

$VIX DOES SOMETHING IT HASN'T DONE SINCE 2011! 

$VIX - Monthly Candlestick Chart - 16 year view - The $VIX continues to trade below the 48 level for the longest run since 2015. 

Yesterday, I incorrectly stated on twitter that the $VIX had stayed below 50, for the same length of time, but on closer inspection, 48 was the actual pivot in 2011.

If you look at even longer historical $VIX charts 45 was the magic number, but it seems that over the more recent past higher levels of volatility have become the norm. We're also seeing a crisis that requires larger amounts of liquidity to reflate the bubble, and we seem to be overdue for one. 

No doubt the $VIX will once again be allowed to break above the 48 level, but if history is a guide, it may not be until early next year, in 2024. 

Market Update: 

Turns out the long awaited $NDX rebalance was much to do about nothing! 

Why the Nasdaq 100 $NDX rebalancing was a nothingburger.https://t.co/NJMrlEbPKj

— Veteran Market Timer (@3Xtraders) July 25, 2023

 

This morning we see money flow back into the tech sector. I saw this coming a mile away. 

$SPX market futures look weak#DowJones also looks toppy
Watch for a rotation back into the Nasdaq.

— Veteran Market Timer (@3Xtraders) July 25, 2023 

  

Take care, 

AA 

Everything that's wrong with this Market

 Be sure to catch yesterday's 2 (count 'em) 2 market updates; the second of which included updated Dow, and $SPY charts.    

Everything that's wrong with this rigged Stock Market

I could easily do a top 10 things that are wrong with this market, but let's try to keep it to 5....  

1. Cryptocurrency - The ridiculous crypto currency market is a perfect example of everything that's wrong with this market, and proves that valuation is not an indication of real value. Crypto is worth whatever someone is willing to pay for it, and estimates range from 0, to $1 million, depending on who you talk to. Crypto has become just one more sector to pump and dump. 

Speaking of Crypto

I recently called Bitcoin a sell, as it continued to retest the top of the range it's been trading in for the past several months, and today we see it trading back near the bottom of the range. 

Most everything - except tech & trash -seems to be trading in a similar pattern - a topic for another day  

2. Foreign Investors 

I think allowing foreign investors to drive US equities is a recipe for disaster. 

Do we really want to rely on the Saudis and China for future earnings growth? This seems to be a conflict of interest, when national security runs counter to investment strategy. 

When Global Markets collapse you're going to see forced selling of US assets, and the Fed has been forced to bailout foreign entities, more than once. 

3. Corrupt Financial Institutions Run The Table

Just Yesterday: Deutsche Bank Draws Fresh ECB Scrutiny Over FX Sales

How many times have the banks been caught red handed... and all they receive is a slap on the wrist? 

Of course the powers that be go easy on the banksters, because they have campaigns to finance. Politicians know where their bread and butter comes from. 

Related 

Hillary Clinton Struggles to Explain $600K in Goldman Sachs Speaking Fees (many sources) 

4. Upgrades, Downgrades, and Rumor, all being reported in real time. 

You can also add to that the endless media hype, and Earnings, reported in after hours trading. Whose brilliant idea was this? I suspect whoever likes driving stocks in 10% increments, on light volume, is behind it, and the AI which makes Options trades in milliseconds. 

5. Insider Trading by Government Insiders Continues 

78 members of Congress caught violating law on stock trades businessinsider.com 

Fed Restrictions on Employee Stock Trading Not Strict Enough, Says Watchdog WSJ 

In short, the whole system is corrupt, including the corporate owned lame stream media that covers it.

Market Update: 

I don't like energy here, and I tweeted that yesterday.  

Goldman Sachs just reported lackluster earnings, but we're not going to see any panic selling, until the appropriate time. I can't say when that's going to be, but take a look at what just happened to bitcoin. The short sellers were shaken out above the 31k level, before it was dumped. 

I would either sell into strength, or just wait until you see panic return to the market. 

In the meantime: Watching the Dow 35k level

Take Care, AA

  

Further Exposing The Hopelessly Rigged Stock Market

Welcome back from vacation. Today is basically the first normal day of trading since June 30th, so I would expect money to be put to work, and a possible rebalancing, ahead of the next earnings season. More on that in a minute.     

In Friday's update, I touched on some of the components that are being used to rig the market higher; one of which being the newly created leveraged bull ETF ($UBOT), but the AI story is only the tip of the proverbial iceberg, when it comes to the rigged tech market. 

 In fact nearly all the high flying market drivers of the NASDAQ - Namely - Tesla, Microsoft, Google, Amazon, and of course Apple, have all been duplicated, using leveraged Bull ETFs.  

$AAPD Direxion Daily AAPL Bear 1X Shares Common shares of Apple Inc. (AAPL) -100%

$AAPU Direxion Daily AAPL Bull 1.5X Shares Common shares of Apple Inc. (AAPL) 150%.

$AMZD Direxion Daily AMZN Bear 1X Shares Common shares of Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN) -100%

$AMZU Direxion Daily AMZN Bull 1.5X Shares Common shares of Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN) 150%

$GGLS Direxion Daily GOOGL Bear 1X Shares Class A shares of Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL) -100%

$GGLL Direxion Daily GOOGL Bull 1.5X Shares Class A shares of Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL) 150%

$MSFD Direxion Daily MSFT Bear 1X Shares Common shares of Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) -100%

$MSFU Direxion Daily MSFT Bull 1.5X Shares Common shares of Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) 150%

$TSLS Direxion Daily TSLA Bear 1X Shares Common shares of Tesla, Inc.

 TSLA -100% $TSLL Direxion Daily TSLA Bull 1.5X Shares Common shares of Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) 150% 

When were most of the above funds created? Just in time for the longest tech rally - since I don't know when - of course; right around Oct, 2022. 

There are no coincidences on Wall Street! 

I haven't taken the time to chart all of the above leveraged funds, but I plan to start with the ones with the highest market caps, since that's where the most excitement is being generated. 

The AI boom has boosted the 'Magnificent 7' stocks' combined market cap to $11 trillion - that's nearly triple Germany's GDP. businessinsider 

For example  

$GGLS - the leveraged Google bear fund continues to be hammered... 

That's just one of the ways the powers that be continue to rig the market higher, is by hammering the leveraged bear funds. 

I'm not sure if it's too late to get in on the latest pump job, but by the looks of Friday's action, this tech rally still seems to have some room to run. 

Some would say, "don't chase the herd", but that's exactly the wrong advice until you see a reversal, and we have yet to see panic selling out of tech stocks. 

There are trades to be had in the AI space, just keep in mind that this rally has already run for several months, and a correction is way overdue. 

The other rigged market - the Options market 

$VIX - the VIX used to be a good indicator of fear, and greed, but today it's used as a bear trap. Take for instance the past 2 rallies on the $VIX; First back in May, and the latest run to $VIX 17 in July. 

Best seen on the 60 min. chart view 

The $VIX was simply pumped above resistance in order to set a series of bear traps. 

Friday, the $VIX was sold at the 50 day moving average, and not even a late day reversal could lift the $VIX into the green. 

I used to look at a low $VIX as the market being complacent, but there's no fear in a rigged market.  

China, Energy, commodities, including - but not limited to - Natural Gas, and Oil.  

Did you happen to notice the massive run in energy on Friday? It was hardly even covered... Instead, the lame stream media spent most the day pointing at Janet Yellen's mysterious trip to China, and Alibaba (up 8%).   

WATCH: Biden Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen completely embarrasses the United States as she bows multiple times to the Chinese Economy Czar and calls him the wrong name.

During her meeting to heal relations with China, Yellen bowed multiple times as Vice Premier He Lifeng… pic.twitter.com/Zjz1ejOpcH

— 🇺🇸Travis🇺🇸 (@Travis_in_Flint) July 8, 2023

A topic for another day. 

Yes, China was up 2%, but so were the regional banks, and Energy.  

 This game of whac-a-mole seems to be the new safety trade, rather than the rigged $VIX, and like Jim Cramer always says, "there's always a bull market somewhere" . 

$UNG - Natural Gas rallied back above the 50 day moving average, a couple weeks ago, and back-tested that support level on Friday. 

 OIL $USO - broke out ending up 2%, and oil producers were up twice that. 

COCOA - This rally has also continued since Oct.  

There's always a bull market somewhere, and especially when there's so much excess liquidity in the market.

Market bubbles aren't created in a day, and it could take several more years before this one is deflated. 

Of course the latest rush back into the sectors I just mentioned, may also be part of a rebalancing  ahead of earnings, and the second half of the trading year. 

The powers that be seem to have perfected market manipulation, and AI is sure to carry that forward. 

It's hard to even imagine the market pulling back as it has historically done, for centuries.  

Manipulation is here to stay.  

On a happier note, the climate engineers took a break from their aerial assault on Sunday, and it was refreshing to see normal clouds, on a blue sky, on a sunny day, for the second time in a week. The first time was on the 4th of July, when military pilots were apparently given the day off.   

Here's what it looked like a day earlier! 

#Geoengineering watch Chicago. Injecting aerosol particulates into the air that we all breath. @RealGeoEngWatch pic.twitter.com/BRCjbh4G7V

— Veteran Market Timer (@3Xtraders) July 3, 2023

Take Care, AA 

Incredible market insight into the AI trade + exposing Inverse Cramer scammers

Continuing with the same topic we've been covering over the past few days: the so called AI/tech/chip boom; which has really been the only exciting thing driving animal spirits over the past several months, although  it's also beginning to look a lot like the annual "dash for trash" - in heavily shorted names. 

I can prove that all day long: 

How about shake shack; is that an AI stock? 🤣 $SHAK pic.twitter.com/xhdWPDugrQ

— Veteran Market Timer (@3Xtraders) May 31, 2023

 

Getting back to something I mentioned in the first update in this series: The options market.  

I like to think of the Options market as an underlying sub-market that more and more explains the real time market action we see every day. This market is where the hidden hand operates. This is where the big fish are lurking, and once you understand that, then you'll have an easier time understanding why the market moves according to certain timelines.

Think back to the market action of the past several months. Pretty dull right? Basically trading in a sideways range, and shaking out the weak hands on both sides of the trade. 

Well, while most traders have been waiting for the broader market to resolve itself, the smart money has been driving a sub market, and this time it was the tech sector. 

Before the tech sector; it was the casinos,the home builders, and even Silver...  and why is that? It's because these are thinly traded markets, and thinly traded markets are easily manipulated. 

Notice how you no longer hear about the home builders? There's a reason for that, and it's called, "sector rotation", and what I often refer to as, "whack-a-mole markets". 

When Jim Cramer says, "there's always a bull market somewhere", he isn't necessarily referring to the options market, but he recognizes that there are engineered stealth market rallies within the broader market, if you only know where to look, or personally know who is engineering it. 

Inverse Cramer 

I'm sure you've all seen the inverse Cramer accounts, which constantly pit the retail investor against whatever trade Cramer happens to be pushing. 

Yes Cramer is often wrong, and very wrong, and he's targeted, because retail money is going wherever he points, and that makes him a handy target of the hedge funds, but....   

These inverse Cramer accounts are obviously fake, and used to set up the retail investor for the fall, and all you have to do is a twitter search for "inverse cramer" to find 100's of trolls/bots pushing those accounts to the top (visibility). Just yesterday, I blocked like 20 of these fake accounts, and this isn't the first time I've discredited these scam artists. 

Cramer doesn't trade the $SPX. He drives big tech. You've been dupedhttps://t.co/DZJX6F4mWB

— Veteran Market Timer (@3Xtraders) May 18, 2023

Who do you think got squeezed in this tech rally? Retail investors, of course!   

Luckily this time I saw this rally in tech continuing into last week's Memorial Day holiday, and I didn't find myself on the wrong side of that trade, but I can assure you that many retail short sellers are utterly wiped out. 

To give you some idea: I finished covering my positions in $SOXS (the leveraged $SOX bear ETF) on 5/24, just ahead of what can only be described as a historic $NVDA earnings release.  

It was the perfect swing trade! 

Getting back to the topic at hand - the Options Market 

In the first update in this series; I specifically mentioned the Najarian bros.; not because I think they're rigging markets, or doing anything else illegal, but because I know Jon Najarian has his hand on the pulse of the Options market. 

I found this interview from 3 months ago, and he offers some really intelligent perspective, and insight, on 0 days to expiration Options, as well as the recent $VIX action, and why that doesn't seem to work like it used to... 

Must Watch! He doesn't try to sell you anything, and I can assure you, I get nothing out of this. 

 I think I have a newfound respect for Jon Najarian, and a new way of looking at the market. Followed 

This tweet explains a lot: 

$NVDA SHORT SELLERS DOWN $4.1B IN MARK-TO-MARKET LOSSES SINCE MAY 24

— Market Rebellion (@MarketRebels) May 30, 2023

Massive short capitulation, as I've been saying. 

Fast Money's Take

Fast money thinks the retail investor was not buying NVIDIA... They seem to think that retail investors only have enough money to buy (meme) penny stocks, as usual they are completely out of touch. 

If I saw this trade coming from a mile away, and even alerted to it, then many retail investors were on board.   

Trading really is analogous to a game of poker, and the trick is to not be the sucker who is left holding the bag, and if you don't know who the sucker is, then that may be you! 

As far as the trade is concerned. 

I continue to see money flow from one chip stock to the next. 

For instance yesterday $AI was dumped, while Intel was bought, and this game of cat and mouse could easily continue into weekly Options Expiration.  

Take care, 

AA   

 

The Fed Continues To Throw Gasoline On The Fire

The Fed Continues To Throw Gasoline On The Fire 

The Fed raised another 1/4 point as expected, and they left the door open for further interest rate cuts. 

Bloomberg immediately reported that as "hawkish" (as in a pause), but the lame stream media had to try and save the "one and done" story they were pushing all week. 

What was interesting to me, is that Bloomberg already had their statement prepared, when I thought they had to wait for the actual release of the statement, like everybody else? Apparently not!  

Then came Chairman Powell's speech:

The market sure didn't take, as encouraging, or hawkish,

and to make matters worse; no sooner than the market closed, bad news was released on yet another failing bank. 

PacWest Bankcorp 

Bitcoin Rises as Latest Teetering U.S. Bank Sends Traders to Crypto Haven coindesk.com 

We also saw scared retail money continue to flee to gold, as I watched it spike to around the 2070 level 

Seeing a blow off top in Gold. pic.twitter.com/OORUgsJkdP

— Veteran Market Timer (@3Xtraders) May 3, 2023

I can't help but wonder where we would have ended the day, if the bad news hadn't been withheld  until after the close. 

No doubt we would've seen a bit more selling.... but market futures were not seen breaking any major support levels, and this morning we see the market ignoring Chairman Powells failings, and S&P 500 market futures are once again being propped up above the beloved 4100 level, in anticipation of all things Apple earnings! LOL 

China and tech both up

 The $HSI (The Hang Seng) was up 1% overnight. That doesn't make much sense from a technical standpoint, after the index was down 1% the day before, but it looks like some post holiday bargain hunting. 

$EEM (mostly china) is trading just below the 50 day ma, so that's something to watch today. 

I believe that needs to pull back more. 

I'm going to guess #thefed is going to do the same thing they did last time, and market's are going to react the same. Emerging markets $EEM #FOMC pic.twitter.com/9rh3nGSepN

— Veteran Market Timer (@3Xtraders) May 3, 2023

Financials and Bank Stocks

This is obviously something to watch. Remember when I remained bearish on financials even as it rallied over the past 2 weeks? Well if I had been short, that bet would finally be paying off! 

$FAZ (3X Leveraged Financial Bear) - not suggesting you should pile into this one. 

All Eyes on $AAPL 

 As I laid out last week, the entire market hinges on the $QQQ, and FAANG stocks. 

No sane investor would be buying US market futures this morning, but computers do most the trading.... #AI $SPX #Nasdaq $PACW #WallStreet #Investors pic.twitter.com/y6ZUV6wPIQ

— Veteran Market Timer (@3Xtraders) May 4, 2023

Dip buyers always rush in, but let's assume that 90% of trading is performed by algorithmic trading programs, which are programmed by teams of tech gurus. Now, the market action makes perfect sense! 

Take Care, 

AA 

The Elephant In The Room

 An Exercise In Futility; an  activity that is not successful or worthwhile Merriam-Webster.com 

That best describes the trade this week! 

Last weekend I described the trade as, "ridiculous as ever, which seems to have become the new normal." 

On Tues. I blogged on the Boring Market in Dull Markets Continue 

At least I've been consistent and right all along, but trading has been as excruciating, as I can ever remember. 

Sure, we're seeing a little whipsawing action here and there, but by the looks of it, we're going to close about UNCH (unchanged) for the week. 

Yesterday, we finally got a little rebalancing, and I can hardly even believe I got that call right! 

We could see a rebalancing ahead of tomorrows Options expiration. The bulls didn't pay their insurance money. $VIX

— Veteran Market Timer (@3Xtraders) April 20, 2023

That's right, after a week of trading in a range, I called for a correction, back to the extreme lower end of that range, and we finally saw stocks end deep in the red. 

Of course nobody else saw this coming, or there would have been at least 1 like on the tweet. Sense my frustration? 

I actually saw the sell-off coming, around 2PM CST in real time

$SOX finally back-filled the gap that was left behind on Tuesday.

— Veteran Market Timer (@3Xtraders) April 20, 2023

I suppose most traders would be thrilled to be right so many times in a row, but I like to trade leveraged ETFs, and I'm not usually jumping in and out of trades intraday, as a "pattern day trader".

At some point in the near future I see myself being upgraded by my broker to that status, but I'm not in any hurry to be labeled as such. If you're unfamiliar with what I'm talking about, here's an explanation 

Pattern Day Trader (PDT): Definition and How It Works Investopedia 

As I was saying  I mainly trade leveraged ETF's, and these funds bleed value when you hold onto them in a flat market, and if you find yourself in a flat market, at some point you have to fish, or cut bait. This is why I recommended traders sit on their hands, until the $VIX starts breaking out. 

This constant bleed in leveraged ETF's also explains why the moving averages aren't very accurate, but that doesn't stop traders from actively trading those levels. 

Yesterday, we did see the $VIX finally move, but it was quickly sold as usual. 

I used the opportunity to take some money off the table, which is very frustrating, but the situation is what it is. At some point you have to have the discipline to do what is required, in order to trade another day.

$VIX

If the $VIX breaks out above 18, then I may be forced to chase the downside, and there is a good possibility that the only thing that is holding this market up is Options Expiration - as we saw just ahead of the covid crash. That crash wasn't allowed to take place, until the following Monday. 

The Elephant In The Room 

The Elephant in the room is OPEX, and I was shocked to see Bloomberg report on it this morning! 

Wary Stock Traders Eye Options Deadline for End to Eerie Calm as

S&P 500 heads for smallest monthly trading range since 2017$SPX #Stocks @BloombergTVhttps://t.co/vrVyi8QMKA

— Veteran Market Timer (@3Xtraders) April 21, 2023

 I watched the TV coverage, and the news girl joked that this was probably a first... as she explained that the market hasn't been pinned like this for a very long time, and then she went on to talk about how money managers were basically being forced to buy (options) protection, which made no sense.

 Look, if MM's were buying protection, the $VIX would be up, and the market would be more likely to close up on OPEX. Even so, I think there's a good chance the $SPX finally closes above the 4100 level, this time.  

Then Bloomberg cut away to what can only be described as a NY City sunrise (climate engineering) psyop: Red skies are caused by particulate matter, high in the atmosphere, and that's why red sun rises, and sunsets, have become the new normal. I've been documenting this effect for over a decade now.

I sure do miss the beautiful sunrises we used to see, before climate engineering. 

The powers that be, only claim to be looking into climate engineering, as a way to cool the planet, because in fact, they've already been at this for a very long time. This is the number 1 threat to humanity, second only to nuclear annihilation, and it's being hidden in plain sight.   

Related Documentary Exposes The Truth About Climate Engineering:

The Dimming, Full Length Climate Engineering Documentary: Exposing the climate geoengineering cover-up 

Take Care, AA 

Reminder - don't troll me with other peoples technical analysis

 Reminder: As I state in my "Chart Legend" (page tab) 

 Twitter Warning: I'm pretty liberal with the (twitter) block button, so don't pester me there. I'm not there to pump your position, or to hold your hand, and opinions - unless based in (sound) technical theory - are not appreciated.  

I can't tell you how many people I've had to block from my twitter feed, but It's probably in the 100's.  The internet is full of trolls, bots, and idiots, and I will err on the side of caution, and block... 

Case in point:  

The #Nasdaq, and the $SPX has been moving in the same direction for how many weeks now? If you want more explosive moves trade crude oil. pic.twitter.com/7DboaLGj87

— Veteran Market Timer (@3Xtraders) April 7, 2023

If you follow the thread on the above tweet, you'll find this troll first complaining about the lack of direction, and then offering some kind of "wave B" theory, and a chart they obviously found on the internet. 

1. The direction is clear, and we got the direction right again on Thursday. 

Of course we saw some fools selling in pre-market, but if you took my advice, then you caught another nice little snap-back rally on Thursday! 

$SPX Thursday rally - ....as predicted before the opening bell. 

Now that I'm trading a leveraged account, I can take advantage of 1 day moves like this, and then get out... ahead of a long weekend; makes trading a lot easier, not having to wait for cash to settle! 

What made chasing that trade super-easy was the fact that the $VIX was being hammered to new lows, and that means that there was no fear.

2. Wave B? 

Troll replies 

"I was more referring to the potential 6 month long abc bearish Elliot wave flat formation than I was to the 12 day rally. I'm talking about B getting taken out to the upside, or a breakout below A."

Chart she included - as I later discovered - is from Elliott Wave Forecast, and is only an example of what a standard correction looks like lol

 

I actually visited elliottwaveforcasts site, and found that they themselves don't even claim that we're in a wave b.

$XLF (Financials EFT) - They apparently believe financials are trading in wave C of Primary wave (5), which I can tell you is probably wrong, and that's coming from someone (me) who proved Robert Prechter wrong in '08.

Note: Remember what I said about the $XLF index just the other day, when I was comparing this crash to the crash of '08.

"Of course many traders like to use the $XLF, but I find it to be less accurate..."

The $XLF isn't as accurate as an index, because ETF charts are constantly rebalanced.

Perhaps this troll was trying to bait me into revealing the Elliott Wave count, because the information she provided made no sense to me, and was obviously plagiarized. Not going to happen.

Could also be that she mistakenly believes that we're in wave b, but I'm just going to chalk this up as troll behavior. That would explain why her twitter account looks fake to begin with. 

I'm going to have to come up with a better way to weed out the trolls, but it's just easier to block...