AI Gold Rush Boom/ Bust Cycles

 Picking up where we left off in yesterday's blog:  

This Isn't Normal! The So Called AI Gold Rush In Technology Stocks And The Rigged Options Market

Booms & Busts 

This feels a bit like Deja Vu, writing about some of the same topics I was writing about during the financial crash of 07 - 08, and one of those topics is boom/ bust cycles. A boom can be best described as an economic surge which is propelled by investment, and animal instincts (greed). Think of the Gold rush during the Western Expansion (1848-1855), or the Tulip mania of the Dutch Golden Age (1634 - 1637). The Bust cycle marks the end of the boom, and is propelled by another - even more powerful - animal instinct, fear.  

The Tech Bubble 

In 2000 it was the Tech boom (bubble) - fueled by speculation, and low interest rates. Once the Fed began raising rates, that boom went bust, and that's why investors are so terrified of the current Fed rate hike cycle. 

I remember the unwind of the tech bubble well. This was back when I still trusted the lame steem media to tell us the truth. Yes I too was once naive! I was convinced that the market was never coming back. I even convinced others to panic out of the market, right at the bottom. "Fool me once, shame on you; fool be twice, shame on me", but we "won't get fooled again".   

Come to think of it, this was about the time I really started to see through every lie that's constantly reported by the lame stream media. From fake news, to fake "conspiracy theories"; it just looks like propaganda to me. For instance: If you happened to see the most recent Elon Musk interview on CNBC; You couldn't help but notice how he was forced to say that he didn't believe (what they continue to report as Donald Trump's "Big Lie") that the election was stolen? Of course Musk is a corporatist, and so he fell right in line with their questioning, but I digress!   

The 2001 Crash 

I found a really good article on the 2000 boom/bust linked below:   

Dot-com Bubble Explained | The True Story of 1995-2000 Stock Market finbold.com 

The So Called Great Recession 

In 2007 it was the housing bubble, which was accomplished through deregulation of the banking system. Sandy Weill had a big hand in that, as did the Republicans, and the Clinton administration, and you'll never guess who else...? 

Jamie Dimon, from Sandy Weill's assistant to savior of First Republic

New boss, same as the old boss.

 And now you know the rest of the story. Now you understand Jamie Dimon's popularity on Wall Street... or at least with Bloomberg staff writers.   

Fake News 

Dimon Hints at Life After JPMorgan, May Mull Public Office

Real News 

JPMorgan’s Jamie Dimon Is No ‘Savior’: He’s A Bond Villain msn.com

Oil and Energy 

No boom/bust would be complete without the energy sector, so in 2007 Oil was pumped to new all time highs, on something called "peak oil theory", only to come crashing down, months later. Yes, another false narrative, another boom/bust. 

I remember hearing rumors - at the time - that Goldman Sach was storing oil in offshore oil tankers,but I don't know if there's any truth to that. 

Nothing to see here!

The Health Care Boom  

You may not have heard about this one, but In 2008, we saw a massive rally in healthcare stocks, and that boom accelerated into the 2012 Presidential Election as socialized medicine was pushed by both candidates - Romney/ Obama. Whether is was going to be called Romneycare, or Obamacare, didn't matter; Wall Street was going to win.     

Your choice in that election was between the black democrat, and a white RINO, but as it turned out the white RINO took a fall, in order to propel the equity narrative. Of course that election was thrown, and anyone who watched the debate live on CNN should know it.  

Mitt Romney Finally Takes Credit For Obamacare

October 23, 2015 npr 

As you can see the healthcare sector remains in a bubble, after Covid helped propel big pharma to new all time highs.  

Tech Leads 

In 2008, we also saw the return of tech as a leader, as the FAANG narrative was spun. The trick was to pick a new marker leader, and that was a simple as going to the 2000 playbook! 

During the Covid liquidity bubble, we saw a continuation of that trend, and even today, after a full year of rate hikes, the Nasdaq remains in a bubble.    

We also saw Oil and energy crash, on the heels of the Covid story, and that was fueled by the corporate owned lame stream media. They actually blamed the Russians, and the Saudis, as hedge funds in London drove Oil contracts to 0 (zero). They even blamed the Fracking bust. 

Once that (zero contract price) goal was accomplished it was time to drive energy stocks to the moon again.  

I thought I had seen it all at this point, but I was wrong. Turns out there really is always a bull market somewhere. 

Enter AI 

Today it's the AI story - which is just another name for the highly speculative Tech sector. 

 This is not to take away from the technological innovation that's been going on for nearly half a century, which started with names like IBM, and Texas Instruments leading the space program in the 70', and in more recent history Microsoft, and Apple.   

There's nothing new under the sun; so AI just looks like another tech bubble to me. It's FAANG by a different name, and it's the same ol' dash for trash, we see every spring.   

In the next update we're going to look at some charts and maybe even try to get a handle on how to trade it.

Take care, 

AA 

 

This Isn't Normal! The So Called AI Gold Rush In Technology Stocks And The Rigged Options Market

To get you caught up to speed on this Technical Tuesday, day after Memorial Day:

 Light volume holiday trading continues, as many traders remain on holiday this week.  

The $SPX managed to close above the 4200 level, for the second week in a row, on Friday, and that round number target was easy to achieve, on light Holiday volume. 

Finally Seeing Capitulation In The Tech Space, Germany in a Recession, and what about China?

 Finally Seeing Capitulation In The Tech Space 

I've been predicting that we would probably see capitulation in the QQQ's, and FAANG, on NVIDIA earnings (on Wednesday), and seeing is believing. 

NVIDIA can break out to a new high on earning $NVDA pic.twitter.com/uw0oJUWwYr

— Veteran Market Timer (@3Xtraders) May 24, 2023

We've been tracking NVIDIA for a while now, so it was actually an easy call.

These big tech names have been the only thing working lately, and even yesterday - on a down day - nearly every FAANG stock closed higher.  

Panic Selling In Europe and China Spills Over into US Equities 

We finally got some clarity on the sell-off in Europe this morning, as revised numbers showed that Germany actually contracted in the first quarter. The powers that be, were obviously tipped off to that, and sold beforehand.  

Germany still looks bullish to me, and it's up this morning 

$DAX - looks like a running wave B, followed by a pullback into a powerful wave C. 

The $DAX actually doesn't look too bad. It simply got ahead of itself (in a running wave b), and pulled back to a higher low. 1 hr chart #Bullish pic.twitter.com/Gf8d8toM9j

— Veteran Market Timer (@3Xtraders) May 25, 2023

stockcharts.com

US Markets 

$SPX pulls back to the 4100 level, for like the umteenth time. The Dow tests the 200 day moving average , ditto. NASDAQ continues to run - off the chain. I suppose it could hold up for a while on light volume, as the smart money unloads their shares to Joe Sixpack, but I would expect to see some profit taking, ahead of the holiday.  

$VIX - I can confirm that the $VIX was rigged above resistance at yesterday's open, so it appears that someone was hoping that the sell-off in Europe, and Asia, would spill over to US markets. 

Looks like a good ol' fashioned bear raid, as I pointed out in yesterday's update. 

Speaking of Yesterday's update: I forgot to pin that to the top of my twitter yesterday; in case you missed it; here's a link:  

Market Update, plus a Super Bullish Chart Added to the Public Charts Area

That's all bullish, not to mention the fact that we're trading into a holiday 

Getting back to the China 

I did a little digging into what's really going on in China, because the "new covid variant" story, CNBC was seen peddling after Tuesday's close, just doesn't hold any water. 

What about the Chinese Chip War? Why not just simply blame that? I'll tell you in a minute.   

China was (actually) reducing Micron chip purchases years before ban Reuters 

 I did a YouTube search for information: 

I'm not sure about the reliability of the source, and this looks like propaganda to me.    

Same thing here: Very similar video - 5 days ago.  

 

Fox News is also seen spinning anti China propaganda 

It's obvious the Republicans, and the NeoCons (on both sides of the aisle), want to escalate the trade war with China, or it could be that both parties are playing a dangerous version of good cop, bad cop, with China. Biden and the Dems call for sanctions, and the Republicans call for stronger measures. 

In the Fox News interview Gordon Chang mentions that the G-7 is decoupling from China.

Here's China shooting back 

Irrelevant G7 is desperate to distract world from its own failures by blaming China

• The G7 summit’s failure to seriously address the deficit in funding for global development risks making it appear out of touch with the real world
• By prioritizing its geopolitical goals, the G7 is turning itself into an economic Nato and destroying global peace and prosperity

This would be a great story, but sadly you won't see that on the 6:00 news! 

Why? because the left, including China Joe, are actually pro China.

The chart below proves that the left has been selling us out to China for decades. 

 

The article below may help explain what's really going on in China, but I'm afraid I'm out of time 

The Real Meaning Behind China's Market Collapse thestreet.com

Take Care, AA

ssss

Market Update, plus a Super Bullish Chart Added to the Public Charts Area

Yesterday's Market Action

Yesterday was the weirdest trading day we've seen in a while. Weird things happen on low volume, so we can probably expect more of the same (unpredictability) next week.  

First, the market opened with Energy leading, and big tech down; something we haven't seen in weeks. CNBC is calling it the biggest down day on the Nasdaq in a month, which isn't saying much. 

$VIX = fear 

The market action was slow as can be, until the $VIX broke out above the 18 level, and oil rolled over, and from there the $SPX started to break some short term support levels. 

#Oil tanking along with everything else. $VIX spiking. fun fun

— Veteran Market Timer (@3Xtraders) May 23, 2023

This was my take read on the market - summed up in a tweet - a few minutes later.  

I see what they did on the $SPY. I see everything $SPX H&S pattern sold in a bear raid. 15 min. chart pic.twitter.com/RtayE91PLE

— Veteran Market Timer (@3Xtraders) May 23, 2023

Obvious bear raid 

There really wasn't any news to speak of, but after the closing bell CNBC Fast Money pointed to a new covid variant in China. I can tell you that there is a new variant, but it's not breaking news. 

2 days ago - 

China approves two vaccines against XBB COVID-19 variant: expert cgtn.com

Fake news that went unreported: 

AI-generated photo of fake Pentagon explosion sparks brief stock sell-off #Stocks $SPXhttps://t.co/jAL5OsiSiS

— Veteran Market Timer (@3Xtraders) May 23, 2023

The big story on Bloomberg Asia last night was that China has given back all the gains of 2023. That's not much of a surprise, since China has been selling off for several weeks/ months, but all of a sudden it's newsworthy? Not sure what relevance this has except to make a headline that sounds bearish. 

Remember they tried to pull the same PsyOp on the Dow - when it was trading near the lows for the year, when the rally actually started back in Oct. 

Smells like more BS reporting to me, but sure enough Asia was down again overnight. 

I haven't updated the China charts for a while, so I have some work to do, but I can tell you that we just saw a shakeout below the 200 day moving average on the $HSI, and that's going to be the level to watch.  

One thing I discovered after yesterday's closing bell, was that $YUM was taken down 2 days ago, before any news broke, so once again it looks like a fake news narrative being used as an excuse to take a market down. 

YUM Holdings China $YUMC breaks support. Gives back all the gains of the year! @CNBCFastMoney @GuyAdami Fast Money $YUM pic.twitter.com/H9zBFgjkVy

— Veteran Market Timer (@3Xtraders) May 23, 2023

This morning Europe is down again, on a stronger than expected CPI (inflation number). Could be the banksters knew enough to start taking profits before this number was released to the public. 

This morning the lame stream media is obsessed with the Desantis story, and only the criminally insane leftist media would give a shit... 

The lame stream media decides what is news, and what isn't. 

They seem to think the debt ceiling is something investors need to worry about, but we've seen this story before... I think the only thing missing this time is the live images of the national debt clock, but maybe they're saving that for next week. 

This is crazy world, it's only going to get worse, when AI starts writing the script, assuming that isn't already happening. 

Same thing goes for social media... it's beyond unhelpful, it's becoming more of an annoyance, than anything else, although I did find the AI generated image story on Twitter. 

It's just getting harder and harder to disseminate reality from fiction. 

For example: Why is #MarketCrash trending in my (suggested for me) search area, when it seems like all I do is constantly debunk this kind of nonsense? Apparently the AI is so dumb, that it can't  distinguish what you love from what you hate. 

Fake Social Media 

This pic.twitter.com/W2VuqU1Oeh

— Veteran Market Timer (@3Xtraders) May 24, 2023

I think I don't have to tell anyone that there isn't a stock market crash, but disinformation is a constant irritant. I have some ideas on how to remedy the situation, but I'm still working on it.  

I have to be tuned in to what's going on in the world, and even into what the current false narrative is, but I also have to be able to tune out 90% of it. 

Bullish Chart Added To The Public Charts Area 

$NYA (NYSE - New York Stock Exchange - Composite Index) I chose this chart for a couple reasons: 1. I'm not giving away any free targets, because most traders only watch the $SPX, and trade the $SPY. Granted there are $NYSE ETFs but no leveraged funds that I'm aware of. 2. This is a better representation of the broader market than the eternally rigged $SPX. 3. This at least tells you where the market is generally going over the next few months. 

Good luck, 

AA

The Market Bulls Declare Victory On The Nasdaq, Winners & Losers + NVIDIA Earnings

We're heading into another holiday trading period; in case you didn't notice how slow things are... and the volume is going to continue to dry up over the summer. 

Of course the financial fake news never mentions that this is prime time for market manipulation, as the short sellers cover their positions - ahead of the summer - and this explains who has really been buying stocks over the past few weeks. The idiot short sellers! 

Winners & Losers 

Remember it was fast money traders like Christopher Verone, who proclaimed that tech couldn't lead a bull market, so we know who is buying tech. 

Remember, it was this clown who told you that miners like RIO, and Freeport, and other industrial names were going to lead the rally. Wrong! 

Notice how the lame stream media never comes out and apologizes for putting idiots like this on the air, and never once have I seen them retract disinformation. More on that in a minute. 

But for every investor who's wrong, there's someone on the other side of that trade

Meet Mike Bell, Executive Director, is a Global Market Strategist based in London jpmorgan.com

Mike Bell - who I had never heard of - was seen on Bloomberg this morning declaring victory on the Nasdaq 100. The headline was something to the effect that the index has just seen its biggest rally since sliced bread... 1998, I think? Not sure what metric they're using to come up with that statistic, or even if that's true, but the details aren't important. What's important is that these sorts of headlines are a well known form of perma-bulls declaring victory, and historically headlines like this mark market tops. This used to be more of a natural occurrence, but now that Wall Street owns all the networks, they use the headlines to their advantage.    

Also see:

JPMorgan's Bell Sees Opportunities in European Equities

Read more at: https://www.bqprime.com/videos/jpmorgan-s-bell-sees-opportunities-in-european-equities
Copyright © BQ Prime

BOOM! 

I've been saying for months that the trade originated in London, and that foreign investors continue to drive markets, and there's the living proof. 

I'm not saying this is the top, but I'd say we're close. I even went so far as to call it capitulation, last week, although I was looking for another pump on Friday, and the rally just seemed to fizzle, as Friday OPEX drew to a close. 

NVIDIA is due to report earnings on Wed. so that could be the final catalyst for the Nasdaq, and the QQQ's to be pumped one last time, in order to cause the few remaining retail shorts to cover their bets. 

By no means is $NVDA one of the largest holdings in the $NDX, but this is the name that most Fast Money traders are hanging their hat on. 

In hindsight it's easy to see how money has flowed into a handful of names in the US, and in the UK, and that that had resulted in some historic (stealth) rallies, in the Nasdaq, Europe, and even in Japan. 

Speaking of Japan

In this week's Newsletter I revealed a NIkkei chart, just in order to prove that there's nothing extraordinary about the rally in Japan, which tied in nicely with Thursday's blog concerning Bloomberg's false narrative....    

See: In all the years I've been watching stocks, I've never seen anything like this!

Bloomberg remains hyper-focused on Japan, and was seen reporting last night that the Nikkei is trading at all time highs, which is a blatant lie.

I can only imagine this false narrative is being reported in order to create headline risk, because most investors are just going to believe the fake news. 

I summed this up in a tweet:

$NIKK is still trading below where it was in 1990. Let that sink in #Investors #Japan pic.twitter.com/ikUVjrv35i

— Veteran Market Timer (@3Xtraders) May 23, 2023

I'm sure you've heard that markets always go back up, and although that may be true, the Nikkei is still trading below where it was trading in 1990, and the same thing can happen to any market. 

If you're young, and you're just going to keep investing into the crashes, then you're actually up, but if you are at retirement age, and counting on your dividends as retirement income, this becomes more of an issue. 

I think there's a good chance we are going to see Dow 40,000 before we see Dow 2000, but there is no doubt in my mind that we will see Dow 2000 in our lifetimes. 

Look at the panic they were able to create using the Covid story. Imagine how much worse it's going to be, when they start a nuclear war.  

Senators issued satellite phones, offered demonstrations on upgraded security devices cbsnews.com

Amid growing concerns of security risks to members of Congress, more than 50 senators have been issued satellite phones for emergency communication, people familiar with the measures told CBS News.

Take Care, 

AA 

Will the Republicans be made the scapegoat for a market crash?

 Will the Republicans be made the scapegoat for a market crash? 

All indicators point to that: 

Friday we saw the $VIX spike on a report that negotiations over the debt ceiling were not going well, just as I predicted... on Thursday. 

See: 

In all the years I've been watching stocks, I've never seen anything like this!

Quoting myself from that update: 

Keep a close eye on the $VIX tomorrow (Friday), and over the next couple weeks, because there's a good chance that we're going to see volatility return, when that debt deal turns sour.  

Like I said in my last Newsletter, "Seeing Is Believing". 

Politico on Friday

Debt ceiling talks break down and attacks escalate as deadline approaches

It's pretty obvious who is being portrayed as the one escalating the "attacks...", by the photo. 

Of course, so-called, MAGA republicans are also prime cannon fodder for this conflict.   

Last Week none other than CNBC provided the platform for this (false) political narrative to be formed.

LEADER JEFFRIES ON CNBC: "WE MUST AVOID A CATASTROPHIC DEFAULT ON OUR NATION'S DEBT"

From that interview:

JEFFRIES: First of all, I've not heard anyone suggest that we don't negotiate with terrorists. I don't view my GOP colleagues– I certainly don't view the Speaker as a terrorist.

KERNEN: We hear the old MAGA trope rolled out the ultra MAGA trope. So I've heard other Democrats say we won't negotiate with terrorists.

JEFFRIES: First of all, first of all, extreme MAGA Republicans is not a trope. Donald Trump has made clear–

Now you've heard it for yourself: The Democratic leadership is calling Trump supporters extremists, and terrorists, while at the same time demonizing Donald Trump, in order to hurt his chances in the upcoming election, and I believe this is only the beginning! 

But wait there's more: 

There seems to be a coordinated effort employing every major news network! 

From yet another NBC affiliate - MSNBC 

LEADER JEFFRIES ON MSNBC: "EXTREME MAGA REPUBLICANS CONTINUE TO DEMONSTRATE THAT THEY ARE THE PARTY OF LAWLESSNESS AND DISORDER"

CNN, and all the Sunday shows were all on the same page, complete with more staged Janet Yellen interviews, and even renewed calls for a market correction of 20%, if the Dems demands aren't met, within a week, of the June 1st deadline.

 

Stocks and bonds would crash 'violently' in a debt crisis - even if the US avoids immediate default, former NY Fed president says marketsnsider 

Trending on Twitter (hashtag) #ScumMedia:

I'm happy to see that at least some people are waking up to the fact that most of what is reported is in fact political propaganda, and lies. 

I think most of what we see on TV is all for show. It's smoke and mirrors, for the masses. Slight of hand.

— Veteran Market Timer (@3Xtraders) May 19, 2023

1O+ likes, mostly from folks I have nothing in common with, other than the fact that they realize as well as I do, that we're living in a matrix. 

As far as the Stock Market goes

I've proven over the past several months/ years that it's not that difficult to predict what comes next; from the excess money printing we saw in 2020, which led to new all time market highs, to the false breakout in Stocks, Oil, which led to the profit taking we saw in 2022.  

The Trade: 

I spent a good deal of time updating the charts over the weekend, in preparation for what comes next, and if you've helped donate to the cause over the past several months, I'm happy to share those targets, and timelines, with you.  However, If you have decided to not support this website, then I'm afraid you're SOL. 

Take Care, 

AA 

Weekly Wrap-up For Stocks, Fast Money, Gold, and more...

 In case you're new to this; "bearish capitulation" is a term for a point in markets where the bears finally give up. Conversely, bulls capitulate at or near the end of a sell-off. 

Part of the process of creating capitulation points in markets is that "whoosh" moment, when all your short term charts break, and that's why I don't spend a lot of time charting very short term timelines.

There are times when even the long term charts will break, as they did during the covid liquidity bubble of 2020. I'm talking about the monster rally that ensued once the election was in the bag - and trillions of dollars were injected into the global economy. 

There was a point where I actually decided to abandon the charts for several months, rather than wait for the momentum to dry up, which actually didn't happen until around the end of 2021.    

$NDX - 20 year chart (monthly candles) Here's a good view of every event I just laid out, above 

Getting back to the short term charts:

$DJUSTC (Dow Technology) 30 min. view - This is a good example of what short term tech traders were seeing yesterday, as the charts continue to breakout 

In fact, I've been able to delete, and archive several chart views we've been watching for the past several months, as tech has continued to break out, and even some long term charts. 

Of course, I predicted that the $QQQ, and Wall Street's beloved FAANG stocks, would continue to drive the market higher, and that's exactly what we've seen over the past several weeks. 

That was back on April 24th: 

Weekly Wrap-up, and a Look Ahead as Focus Turns to Tech Earnings

Back when I recognized that NVIDIA, and the rest of the Q's were being used to drive the market. 

From that update:

Why NVIDIA?

Because this just happens to be one of the top 10 holding in the $QQQs, and this market is all about juicing the QQQs. I'm sure you've seen the endless commercials.... 

Related: April 4th

QQQ Stocks Drove S&P 500 Q1 Gains  

etftrends.com 

 Here's yet another major component of the QQQ's being pumped on Friday 

 $AMZN  Amazon

This helps explain why $NFLX was seen rallying 10% yesterday. 

The $QQQ's are driven higher, with #FAANG stocks, just as I predicted... #ChaChing! #QQQs pic.twitter.com/ZofA595NTI

— Veteran Market Timer (@3Xtraders) May 18, 2023

 Today's Trade 

Today - the 3X Tech long charts will breakout, in order to cause the bears to capitulate, or risk remaining trapped in that losing position over the weekend. 

If you were able to stick with this trade for the entire year, you're up 100%. 

Of course those who continue to trade the broader market have been left waiting for a lousy breakout above 4200, when market futures have been pointing to that level for several weeks.  

For comparison: 

The $SPY is only up 10% over the same time period 

What's worse is what if you chose to try to avoid volatility, by investing in the $SPLV (S&P 500 Low Volatility ETF) you are actually down for the year! 

$SPLV - $SPX Low Volatility ETF - Down for the year 

That's right. all those Bloomberg guests who came on the air to predict that, "Volatility is here to stay", all lost money. 

Gold Miners failed to hold support at the 50 day average, and I suppose what we just saw was a sector rotation out of metals, and back into Tech. 

Gold 

Fast Money gets it wrong again - 1 month ago encouraging people to buy gold  

Pushing Newmont on April 4th 

Newmont Mining hitting a new all-time high for the first time in 34 years.

Here's why the Chartmaster @CarterBWorth says the stock still has room to go. @petenajarian weighs in. $NEM pic.twitter.com/9ZP649dRY0

— CNBC's Fast Money (@CNBCFastMoney) April 1, 2022

And lastly Fast money's Tim Seymour liking the $GDX at the 33 level, just this week lol 

Final trades!

Here's what @timseymour, @grassosteve @GuyAdami @riskreversal_ are trading on Wednesday.$GDX $TSLA $VIX $WSM pic.twitter.com/EGu5FfcsGy

— CNBC's Fast Money (@CNBCFastMoney) May 16, 2023

Have a great weekend, 

AA 

In all the years I've been watching stocks, I've never seen anything like this!

Yesterday, we saw a nice rally, and I even called the breakout in real time.  

$SPX breaks out... 5 min. chart working #SPY pic.twitter.com/8bpoImhTAZ

— Veteran Market Timer (@3Xtraders) May 17, 2023

This is the same range we've been watching all week, and you can clearly see where the market broke out above my red line, on this longer term view. 

The $SPX sells off at my red line. #SPY that! pic.twitter.com/utvGJMc1SA

— Veteran Market Timer (@3Xtraders) May 16, 2023

So, in hindsight this rally had everything to do with the technicals, and nothing to do with hopes for a debt ceiling increase, as Bloomberg is falsely reporting. 

In fact this rally looks more like a (bearish) capitulation top, ahead of a debt ceiling battle that will most likely go into the 9th inning, and then overtime. 

The bulls like to sell high, so I believe they drove stocks higher, in order to sell in May.... and of course just in time for, yet another rigged Monthly Options Expiration Friday (tomorrow).  

Blatant Market Manipulation

See Germany Breaking out? That's the powers that be in Europe, manipulating the options market in the UK.  

$DAX  - an engineered breakout above 16k. At least it did a little pause - back-test - before taking off like a rocket, because when US markets are manipulated, we like to leave gaps all over the map.  

I called for an upside surprise in this week's Newsletter, so I'm not at all surprised...

Gold

The rally in precious metals continues to be faded. 

No breakout for precious metals  

Everybody who prediced Silver & Gold were poised to breakout to new recent highs, WRONG pic.twitter.com/HcvTRpXVSF

— Veteran Market Timer (@3Xtraders) May 18, 2023

Getting back to Gloomberg: 

Unless you've been living under a rock for the past several months, then you should know Japan has been rallying along with most everything else. 

CNBC Fast Money also covered the story this week, and of course those clowns are bullish, just as they were the Energy sector, and more recently Gold, when it looked like it might break out. These clowns are notorious for chasing gains at the end of a big run., but I digress. 

Anyhow I saw the oddest thing being reported last night, on Bloomberg last night, as they too covered the rally in Japan. 

In all the years I've been watching stocks, I've never seen anything like this! 

Bloomberg Asia 

Since when does Bloomberg TV point to meaningless technical levels/ indicators, in order to try to dissuade investors from investing in Japan? 
Just yesterday, I had to debunk a chart they were seen pointing to, but this time they don't even offer a chart... 

Japan? 

Granted, nobody should be chasing Japan here, but I've never met anyone who trades according to that set of technical indicators. Begs the question; who's really in charge of programming over there? 

Makes me think, they are working for the Chinese Communist Party. After all, investors have been fleeing to Japan, because they feel it's safer than China. 

We know Buffett is invested in Japan, and I think I covered that on April 11, 2023: 

Trading Into Earnings Season, Bitcoin hits 30k, Buffett Invests In Japan, Silver

Related: The Chinese vs Japan trade war heats up

Global chipmakers to expand in Japan as tech decoupling accelerates www.ft.com

Rishi Sunak to unveil semiconductor partnership with Japan www.ft.com

Looks to me that there is a battle being waged for who is going to control the New World Order, and AI, which the globalists no doubt believe is the means for control.... Scary times, indeed! 

Walmart 

Walmart just came out with earnings, and that one continues to test the all time highs. 

$WMT - I haven't updated this chart in several months, but to be honest, the price action doesn't give me the warm fuzzies. 

Keep a close eye on the $VIX tomorrow, and over the next couple weeks, because there's a good chance that we're going to see volatility return, when that debt deal turns sour.  

Take Care, AA 

Market Update $SPX Chart Bullish, Or Is This A Bull Trap?

Yesterday, I pointed out how the market continues to be bought at the 50 day moving average, after painting 3 consecutive bullish hammers on the chart, and it looks like the market is set to gap back up above that support, after yesterday's weak performance. 

DOW - to gap back above the 50 day moving average. That is bound to trigger buying programs. 

$SPX 

Bloomberg Psyop Chart, Complete w/ Scripted Interview 

When I saw one of Bloomberg's people pointing to the chart above, and then having a scripted interview with one of their own people about it, I immediately knew it was a PsyOp. 

First thing I did was try to recreate their shitty looking chart: 

$SPX - Bloomberg Chart Recreation: 

1. First thing I did was try to recreate the - what's supposed to look like a bullish - channel in yellow, which isn't a parallel channel at all. You can kind of already see that in the pic I took (above), but for some reason it looked parallel on the TV. Regardless, it's not a bullish channel. I'll show you a couple examples of the actual (possible) range in a moment. 

2. The area of consolidation they've painted green, is supposed to look like a parallel range, and a bullish range. After all, why else would they choose to use a green range to show what is clearly a bearish head & shoulders pattern? LOL  

Next thing I did was to try to find an actual range, and I found a couple interesting ones! 

First The Bear Case 

There actually is a parallel range that the market has been trading in for the past several months, and the bear case would be that we have been consolidating at the top of that range for several weeks. 

I suppose the catalyst for all this consolidation was the idea that better than expected earnings would be the catalyst for a breakout, but so far we haven't seen that. In fact instead we've seen investors hiding in gold miners, and other so called safety trades.  

Just yesterday, I was watching Fast Money, and one of the traders was pushing the $GDX at the 33 level, and I do kind of like it here, as it approaches the 50 day moving average.  

$SPX Bear Case 

$SPX Bull Case 

The bull case would be that the market has already broken out, and is headed for the top of the pattern. 

An upturned megaphone pattern.

To add to the bull case: 

1. Home Depot had a big earnings miss yesterday, yet it closed on a bullish doji reversal candle, and why is that? Because $HD is a heavily weighted component of the rigged $SPX. It must be bought. 

2. Fast Money is also recommending miners, because that's the new safety trade. That keeps the $VIX from breakout out, and that's what it's all about. 

3. Who is going to stick around to sell this market after Memorial Day? 

Take Care, AA  

3 Bullish Hammers on the Dow, Nasdaq. The bullish $USD, plus AI Investing - in Big Tech & Semiconductors

 3 Bullish Hammers 

 

$INDU Dow chart, being aggressively bought at the 50 day moving average.  3 Bullish Hammers in a row. Could be the AI, could be the smart money... or both. 

Of course the broader market continues to look weak, but every dip continues to be bought. 

Short Term Chart

$NDX - 60 min. chart view - trades into what looks like a continuation pattern. 

I chart everything, so I see everything, and I see retail traders trying to sell the top of this pattern. 

Bearish News 

The lame stream media continues to release bearish statements from Janet Yellen. This time she claims that we could run out of money, as soon as June 1st. This BS statement just happens to coincide with the next meeting between the Whitehouse, and the Republican leadership. 

Wall Street investors are being played for fools. 

We've seen these budget battles play out a million times before, and they always end the same way. 

The $USD 

 The $USD looks very bullish to me, but I'm uncertain how the market is going to react to a strong dollar. For instance the British Pound, or even gold?  

$USD/$GBP - seen rallying off the lower end of the range 

The USD is also trading in the bottom of the same range it's been trading in all year, right around the psychologically attractive 100 level. 

For an interesting study: Chart the $USD  going back 8 years, and find where resistance was, in 2015. 

Regardless of what you think about the $USD, and the market; the $VIX remains low, and that means less volatility is expected, and that means no fear.  

If you're still bearish, I'd be watching the $SOX as it retests the 50 day ma; while simultaneously CNBC  pumps the AI story. Think this wasn't engineered? 

So, as it turns out there is good trading, if you know where to look, and you can tune out gloomberg. 

Here is what’s working and what’s not working — and a few A.I. stocks to consider cnbc

Take Care, AA 

Gold Chart Updated & Added To The Public Charts Area

  I was doing a little extra charting over the weekend, and tweeted this: 

Those who fear the death of the $USD, are #bullish #gold. Chart doesn't lie. #StockCharts pic.twitter.com/EZusuoRRfm

— Veteran Market Timer (@3Xtraders) May 14, 2023

$SGOL is fundamentally the same thing as $GLD, and trades in lock step with Gold.

 I prefer to keep $GLD targets hidden, so I added the above chart to the Public Charts area.  

Looks Bullish 

The $SGOL is trading in a very aggressive looking upturned channel, and if this trend continues, then we could see physical gold breakout, as I mentioned in this weeks Newsletter - where I laid out the bull case for gold - and I even pinpointed the upside target. 

Not Bullish

The pattern on the chart only looks like a bullish channel to the average channel trader, but there is one glaring inaccuracy on the chart, and only someone who is experienced with Elliott Wave theory might catch it. 

The first pullback in November, resulted in a shakeout to a slightly lower low, and that rules out a wave 2.  Wave 2 actually took place a little later. 

$SGOL  - The chart below shows where the actual bullish channel was, and where the price action on gold was manipulated, back in early march; where it was driven back up into the channel. This was no accident. 

Now you see a second channel failure in April, followed by a second attempt at a channel repair, and gold beginning to struggle again. 

I don't believe I've ever seen the same broken channel repaired more than once, so I remain bearish. 

Take Care, 

AA

Weekly Wrap Up 5/12/23 Update Silver, Gold, Precious metals

 Weekly Wrap Up For Friday 5/12/23

Broader Market 

Looking for a pullback on this Friday - weekly options expiration - probably in the tech sector. 

Europe also looks like it has traded into a little zigzag pattern. 

Market futures are up, but I'm still expecting a sharp reversal, at the open. German $DAX looks like a counter trend rally. pic.twitter.com/mww0u3a2cB

— Veteran Market Timer (@3Xtraders) May 12, 2023

A simple Zigzag Patern counts a-b-c. Rallies to a lower high, and you have to assume this is a counter-trend rally, when the 16k target was just taken out. 

All this sideways action, and continued weakness isn't good. This is how most rallies end. Momentum dries up, as the smart money continues to unload their positions to dumb retail investors. 

Of course this sideways action could be bullish consolidation, and it could be that the bulls are only waiting for the short sellers to leave for the summer, so they can drive the market into another bearish capitulation point, and take profits, and I'm still kind of leaning in that direction. 

Nevertheless, the market bulls have not paid their insurance money this week, so today is prime time for a little correction.  

Looks like the $SPX doesn't want to break out above my green line. Pull back to the 4089 level perhaps. $VIX gap fill on OPEX would be epic. $SPY that! pic.twitter.com/MFccQzUTbk

— Veteran Market Timer (@3Xtraders) May 11, 2023

Precious Metals 

Gold, Silver, Platinum – Silver Plunges 4.5%, Breaking Through Key Support Level fxempire

Took long enough, but it looks like my patience has once again paid off. 

See: The Week In Review, A Look At The Week Ahead, A Cash Cow, Silver, Oil, and Disney

In that update I told you exactly where Silver and Miners were going, and in previous updates, I predicted that Gold would correct with it, and now you see the chaos. 

Will Silver continue to be bought at the 50 day moving average? I'm sure...

I'm watching the 23.50 area this morning. We could see a little washout below that target, but a rebound back above that level will bring with it short covering. 

Is Silver and Gold an investment? I'm not sure it is at these prices, but this is where the scared money like to hide, as long as the weak dollar story continues to be broadcast. 

I've been predicting this correction in Precious metals for some time, but like I always say, "it takes time for a top to form". 

Speaking of Tops

See this pattern on Goldman Sachs $GS - I discovered yesterday 

1-2-3 pattern 

$GS - this is a great example of how the market bulls use a 3 step process in order to try to cause bearish capitulation. 

Which one of these recent highs, do you suppose received Jim Cramer's highest bullish recommendation - 1, 2, or 3? Goldman Sachs $GS pic.twitter.com/We5nmY02wM

— Veteran Market Timer (@3Xtraders) May 10, 2023

If they perform the same stunt in the Silver market, then we could see another new high in Silver

 

That's not a trade I'm looking to chase, but if we see that I'll be looking to sell Silver again! 

Take Care, AA