Friday, September 30, 2022

Looks Like I Finally Got It Wrong - this time - What Was I Thinking?!

Looks Like I Finally Got It Wrong - What Was I Thinking?! 

It's been quite a while since I got it wrong, and I've still been mostly right, when it comes to the bearish reversal in commodities, energy, and even when I said that the market could not continue to sell off on a low $VIX, and it should be obvious to everybody by now, that we're not going to see another 20% downside, on a low (below 30) $VIX! I even got gold right, when I got out at the top, and removed the gold page, I had created. Not an easy thing to do, to get bullish, and then get bearish, and stay bearish, even as currencies are collapsing, as I predicted back in 

Market Update 7/15/22 Currency Collapse Likely? Red Flags! Gold the next safety trade?


So, I'd still argue that I've been mostly right, over the past year, but being right all the time, would lead to boredom, and you don't learn anything being right all the time! 
 
I've been consistently wrong on a couple, actually 3, things, which come to mind. 

Financials, Tech, and another important one, I'll reveal shortly

Here's where I got it wrong on Sept 22nd, and again, last week: 

1. On the 22nd, I was seeing what looked like a bullish reversal, and energy charts that could not be broken 

Market Update 9/2/22 - Taking a Closer Look At Yesterday's Bullish Reversal


Soon after.... those Energy ETF's broke, and that turned out to be good thing, for me, but had I been long, I'd still be down, even after this weeks rally in energy! 

2.  Just last week, I was still seeing a bullish set-up - in the broader market - and an upturned channel. Turned out to be something else, which I'll get into shortly.   

3. I also got tech wrong, and even yesterday, Tech continues to make lower recent lows. 

This tweet from Sept 15th 


 

This all goes back to my misreading of the tech sector, and more importantly the $DAX 

  

Sure, I could blame the selling ahead of the bombing of the Nord Stream Pipe Line, or the fact that the market breadth is shallow, or that this pullback has been harder to predict than most, or that patterns don't work as well as they did, before everyone started trading moving averages, which is all true.

A Difficult pattern to predict   

This is especially true, if we are trading in wave "E" - which is a wild card 

$INDU - wave E can truncate or overshoot 


Not your typical chart pattern, and that's why you still see 99% of technicians still trying to draw parallel channels on the charts. Looks like a descending megaphone pattern to me!  

Getting back to the $DAX, I revealed my updated $DAX chart yesterday, and even shared it with a couple well known German banks. I'm hoping to get an invite to Germany, or at least a referral, but let's face it, I'm not a good fit for corporate life!  

$DAX - looks like a broadening pattern - technically a common Expanded flat Pattern, where wave B comes to an end below the start of wave A 


However, when you look at a long term $DAX chart, it resembles another down-turned triangle pattern


BUT - and that's a big but, I believe we're not trading in wave E. I think some incredibly smart people are trading it, as if it's wave E, but in fact this is a minor wave b. or some other complicated wave (like (X) of (D), as I'd pointed to in previous updates. 

A couple more things: 

Why are US equities being sold so aggressively, when Canada isn't even trading at the lows of the year? 

$TSX - looks like it's also trading in Wave B. 



Still looking for a face melting rally, even if the market continues to trade into an oversold condition - going into next week. 

Take Care, AA 


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Thursday, September 29, 2022

The US Military Denies Any Involvement in the Bombing of Nord Stream II

 Picking up from yesterday:

US military says it was 'absolutely not involved' in Nord Stream pipeline leaks washintonexaminer

1st off, this pipe line doesn't just all of a sudden spring a "leak", and I'm sure the MIC (Military Industrial Complex) knows exactly who sabotaged this important piece of Russian infrastructure, BUT let's assume the above statement is technically correct. 

I suspect the US Military didn't have any direct involvement in 9/11, either, but there are probably a dozen - or so - other US agencies that could pull this type of false flag, with the help of Israel, or France, or whoever...?

I still suspect this was a pro-Nato Operation, and we have Joe Biden on tape telling us Nord Stream would "end", if Russia invaded Ukraine. At least we have some reporting on the ecological impact of yet another methane plume/ release.  

I'm a conservative, so I don't believe we should be butting our nose into every other part of the world, in a power grab for natural resources, but this is the world we live in, and trade in.    

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Wednesday, September 28, 2022

Market Update 9/28/11 - Not Surprise By The "Sabotage" Of Nord Stream 2 - #FalseFlag

"Sabotage" is how the Nord Stream 2, story continues to be reported by the industrial media complex, but I'm going to offer you some indisputable proof, that yesterday's "sabotage", was indeed a false flag, and while I'm on the subject, did you know that building 7 wasn't even hit by an airliner on 9/11. 20 years late, most people still don't know that, because the truth scares them, and building 7 was intentionally left out of the official investigation...!  

A Structural Reevaluation of the Collapse of World Trade Center 7 - UAF Institute of Northern Engineering - University of Alaska Fairbanks 

As you probably know - if you've been following this blog for any length of time - I predicted a false flag earlier in the month. See the last few paragraphs of:  Market Update 9/15/22 - This Market Is In Trouble?

I'm not surprised by the Military Industrial Complex's bombing of Nord Stream 2; I'm only surprised it took so long! 

The motive for this false flag 

The real motive is for energy resources, which seems to be a common theme for most, US invasions, but this one also helps the Democrats in Nov. See the bots on twitter trending #BidenDeliversAGAIN

Feb, 7th - 

Biden Vows to "Bring and End" to Nord Stream 2 nbc 

Nord Stream 2 turning into Biden’s No. 1 problem Politico


Problem Solved! 

U.S. Blew Up Russian Gas Pipelines Nord Stream 1 & 2, Says Former Polish Defense Minister forbes 

Additional Proof is the excessive PUT buying we've seen, ahead of this false flag, and that shows that the big banks, and the money printers, were in on it! 


The selling in US equities has been pretty orderly, but I still think were close to capitulation. I could say a lot more this, but I'm running short on time. 

I think this orderly selling rules out a wave E, and wave 3 has most certainly been ruled out, so my forecast hasn't changed.    

One more thing! 

I've been writing on this blog for over 10 years, and I was looking back as some old posts from 2010, and deleting most of them, but I found this one - dated Sat, July 26th, 2010 Re: Market Manipulation - where I documented the anomalies I was seeing in the market at that time, and I was reminded of this yesterday, when I was talking about the who is selling the DOW, and then later in the day, I noticed that the Wilshire 5000 was actually up, yesterday! 

Wilshire 5000 - Up 7% yesterday! How about that for an anomaly!?   



I could tell you what I think this means, but I'm out of time.

Watch for a sharp reversal today, at the $VIX target I pointed to yesterday. I can't guarantee we'll see that target taken out, but still looking for a reversal here, and I always find it, one way or another!  




DONE! 

AA 


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Tuesday, September 27, 2022

Market Update 9/27/22 - Washout To Lower Recent Lows

Thought I'd offer an updated financial chart. Don't want to leave anyone hanging, after the chart broke last week.   

 $DJUSFN - This looks like a slight washout to a lower low.  


 Of course they had to try to shake the weak hands, while reporting how household credit card debt has risen, but this is what they do. Bullish 

I'm not trading financials, but I would be a buyer, of $FAS, right here! 

The black line becomes your stop. 

I suppose Tech, and everything else is also about to bounce out of the hole, after yesterday's little shakeout, but there are plenty of opportunities, outside of the US technology space. 

One thing I noticed yesterday, is that they took out the June low on the DOW, of all things, so that's another thing to watch. 

Who takes down the DOW in a Monday downside surprise? 

I suspect British Hedge Funds, are behind the recent shakeout, since Bloomberg keeps talking about the British Pound. 

Take Care, AA 
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Sunday, September 25, 2022

Market Update 9/24/22 - Surveying The Damage After Last Weeks Sell-off

 I was away from my desk, most the day, on Friday, but I still kept tabs on the market, and checked in after lunch, just in time to catch some fake news!  

Bloomberg reports: "Market makes a new 2 year low" (paraphrasing)  

I have no idea what chart view Bloomberg is using, but this fact checker is calling, Bullshit on that!  

Does this look like new 2 year lows to you? 



It was from about the time of that fake news report that the Market recovered somewhat - probably short covering, but possibly program buying - going into the close. 

Without revealing any of my proprietary chart targets, I can tell you that we've only traded, from one bullish set-up, into another.

Another Bullish setup 

We see several indices back-testing support, at critical moving averages, and since the market is being traded, mostly by machines, these levels are going to be bought in the blink of an eye, and with no regard to the fake news, or the $VIX. This is where you are going to see the boys separated from the men, so to speak. 

Here's a stat you won't hear the rats in the financial fake news report: 

The $NDX (The NASDAQ 100) back-tests the 200 day moving average, for the first time since the crash of 09, which marked the beginning of a bull market that has continued for the past 20+ years!

But there's more...! [edited for content because these targets are just too valuable to be giving away, free]  

I wish I could show you the charts, but I'm no longer able to reveal my targets to traders who don't even support the cause.

Broken Charts

We did see several sector charts break, including Gold, Oil, and Energy, which was good to see, and this sure beats the summer doldrums, we've had to try to navigate, over the past several months.   

We saw the rug pulled on the energy sector, as the $XOP was taken down below the 200 day moving average, to close the day down another 8%! BOOM! 

Energy

I recall not too long ago, when the Fast Money clowns were telling retail investors how great the Energy trade was! Of course I saw this pullback coming, from a mile away, and made some good gains over the past couple weeks, trading it (short). 

See: Market Update 8/30/22 CNBC Fast Money Traders Like Energy

Leveraged ETFs 

We also saw some leveraged ETF charts break, which is great to see, because traders shouldn't be relying on patterns on these skewed charts anyhow. Maybe now we'll see less of that. 

Getting back to the broader market: 

As I predicted on Friday, there's a very good chance we're going to continue to trade the range, and here we are trading near the bottom of it, and on an even more bullish footing! 

What I can tell you is that 2 weeks of selling into a double bottom, does not point to a continuing bear market, but more likely a pullback in wave (B).  

Expecting a face melting rally in a powerful wave C. 



Good luck Next Week, AA 


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Friday, September 23, 2022

Market Update 9/23/22 - Did I Get It Wrong This Time?

  Did I Get It Wrong This Time? 

I see market futures down again, and Germany down over 2%, and that's a little concerning. 

So, first thing I decided to do this morning - after starting this blog - was to chart the $DAX

$DAX 40 - Funny, how bearish traders get on a simple retest of the lows, but this is nothing to be afraid of. 



 I'm not infallible, so there's always the possibility that I'm wrong - about a bullish reversal - but I don't give up easily. Even at the height of the covid pandemic, I maintained that it was going to be used an excuse to print more money, and that the stock market would make, "new all time highs", and this even after more the charts were still broken. Sure, I could've been wrong..!  

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Thursday, September 22, 2022

Market Update 9/22/22 - We got our shakeout on the FOMC announcement!

 I was up around 2:30AM this morning, with dollar signs in my eyes; super excited, after watching the bears take out the target I published in Monday's update. 

$SPX - the 3800 target looks good, and that gap fill target... 


The gap fill target was also alerted to, in my Sept 15th, update. 

$SPX DCS chart - The gap fill actually occurred at yesterday's close, and I alerted to that in my LinkedIn, after the closing bell.  


  Of course we saw futures sell off a little further, in (ah) after hours trading, and I even called the reversal in ES1 contracts. I don't even trade futures, but it's good practice... and I just love what I do! 

$SPX ES1 Futures This webull screenshot, from last night. 


The Breakout 


Very exciting! 

6:50 AM CST: I'm watching futures settle right around the 3800 target. 

I still believe this rally - the one which started back in June - has legs.

I watched one (guest) analyst on CNBC come on, on Tuesday, and predict that the market would continue to trade in the same range, we've been trading in for the past several weeks, and I think that could be right. 

I pointed this out, back in early August 

I've just been absolutely killing it this year, and making some new connections on linkedIn. I suspect that before long I'll be working for a fund manager, hopefully in beautiful Bermuda!  

Plan and book your whole trip on Expedia   

Top Romantic Vacation Packages in Bermuda  

I make a commission on purchases made using affiliate links provided 

Find your dream vacation package on Expedia

$WSLH - Wilshire 5000 Chart added to the public charts area 





Take Care, and have a great weekend, if I don't see you again, 

AA 



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Wednesday, September 21, 2022

Market Update 9/21/22 - Today's The Federal Reserve Announcement

Today's The Federal Reserve Announcement

Of course today is the fed announcement, and the BofE, and maybe we see another little shakeout on this breaking news, but the market is going to see this as a green light. 

Everybody knows rates are rising.

I'm doing much better today, after getting caught up on some lost sleep, yesterday.  You've heard of good sleeping weather? Well, this is what I would call a good sleeping - rather than trading - environment. I mean how boring is this?  

Placing a rare, "Buy and Hold", on a certain sector. More on that below.  

What's with this dull market? 

At this point, I'm sure the bears are wondering why the market can't seem to sell-off like it did - 5 days ago (yesterday/Technical Tuesday) to be exact. Ever since, trading has been very dull, and you should all know why that is, after all I've taught you over the past several years. Impress me, by explaining to me, why you believe this is, in the comments section, and I'll be happy to throw you some free charts!   

There's a hint - contained in the previous paragraph - as to what I'm seeing in this market, and that's all you get for free, but I'll be sure to fill you in, after I make some killer money next week. 

I've got this! 


Today's Pinned Tweet 

To review the recent action: 

1. Last Tuesday - the rug was pulled just below the 50 day moving average, and the gains of the previous week, given back in 1 day. Even I was a little surprised by this, and this is coming from someone who doesn't get surprised too often, anymore. The reason I was surprised, was not that the CPI number was that bad, but that after the market, after gapping up, more than once, in the previous week, that the market would gap down, and momentum would shift to the downside, so abruptly! You just don't normally see momentum shifts like this, but this was a very well coordinated bear raid. 

2. Over the next/past several days trading has slowed to a trickle, with the DOW only trading 300 points lower, than last week's low of 31k (even).  Another even number target.  

3. This morning we see market futures waffling again, and this in the face of the #1 threat that faces our survival as a species - nuclear annihilation. 

Putin announces ‘partial mobilisation’ of Russia and threatens nuclear retaliation saying ‘I’m not bluffing’ theguardian 

At least Europe is smart enough to reduce risk, on this news, as we see futures mostly red in the UK. but not in the US! There's a very logical reason for this, and the answer to this conundrum is one you might not expect, but this alone is well worth the price of admission. Don't miss this 1 time offer, to learn something that's not only going to help you trade this week, and next, but for years to come!    

Good luck, AA 






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Tuesday, September 20, 2022

Market Update - Oil trades into the Danger Zone

 Before I get to the Oil trade, can you believe how they rushed in and bought the dip, at yesterday's opening bell? I can, after pointing out the bullish setup, for stocks, and the real reason why the $VIX remains so low.... 

Financials even led... as predicted.

Was that the bottom in equities? Probably not, since we haven't seen the target taken out on the $SPX, but you just never know. I don't like that the already bloated energy sector also led.  

My feeling this morning is that if markets aren't going to price in a 1% hike, then the fed announcement may be sold, in another taper tantrum. Another, "sell the news event", possible.    

Maybe I'm not thinking too clearly this morning, after so little sleep. I think the insomnia could be a seasonal thing, but I am a little concerned with the market action. 

Getting to my warning on the Oil trade: 

In one of my most recent updates I mentioned Carter Worth, but I failed to mention that he, and the rest of the fast money guys, are all bullish Oil, and energy.  

I'm going to show you why I'm nervous about what they are seeing in the Oil charts  

I already pointed to this one twitter, this morning 


 What's wrong with that chart? The black trend line, isn't valid.  


Why the warning? Because there's fast money already buying that bogus trend line, and, "fast money in, fast money out". When their black line breaks, they are going to know exactly what to do! 

Without giving away, my targets on US crude oil - and that's why I'm only showing the BRENT chart, and an incomplete chart at that - I think Oil could easily sell off another 10%  

Something I just realized is that BRENT closed yesterday at exactly $92, and I think that's not a coincidence!  

I have more charting to do! 

And if you're trading crude oil, then you need my charts! $100 gets you, all you need for 30 days. 

If you need targets on anything, I have the charts you need. 

In the real news, 

We're currently fighting a proxy war with Russia, and making military threats against China, but in order to please his base, Biden is simultaneously weakening US Military. Of course that story will never be reported. 

House Democrats push Biden to unleash even more emergency oil

cnn

1 week ago

U.S. emergency oil reserves tumble to lowest since 1984 Reuters

16 hours ago 

U.S. to sell up to 10 mln bbls of oil from SPR for Nov. delivery Reuters 

Fake News 

Stock Market Crash News 

Dow's 500-point crash usa today




Yes you read that right! 500 points trimmed off the Dow, is being called a "crash". That's over the top, on the overly bearish sentiment indicator. 

I've never seen so much stupidity, and dishonesty in the media; in my entire life! 

Take Care, AA 


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Monday, September 19, 2022

Market Update 9/18/22 - What to expect in the coming week

I started this update on Sunday 9/18/22, while I was doing some extra charting, and just wrapping it up this morning (Monday).  

Fridays close looked weak, and the VIX, which I wrote about in a separate article on over the weekend... held support, and continues to trend up. 

This is how I got it right, and usually get it right, on a daily basis, by accurately reading the VIX.  

Market Update 9/7/22 - Why is the $VIX so low?

$VIX support shouted out from my twitter feed on Friday

That's right about where it closed, so we may be looking at another downside surprise on Monday  

Tweeted out again last night, when futures were still pointing up. 

Longer tern 

Still looks like the market is trading into a classic bottoming formation 

As I tweeted on Friday:


$SPX - the 3800 target looks good, and that gap fill target seems to be the goal of the so called experts in the lame stream media, who like to make excuses for why the $VIX remains contained, as they usually do, when they're setting a bear trap. 

As I said in my weekend update: 

Only trust the $VIX
(not the so called experts) 

Calling the broader market direction is easy, predicting targets, and timelines, is a lot of work 

Additional $SPX Charts, sector charts, Crypto, Gold, as well as timelines available upon request. Simply make a $100 donation to my personal PayPal, and then PM me.... 

Back to the bear trap: 

All this talk, of selling the market on a contained $VIX, smells like another setup. I can smell BS from a mile away, and the more the pros make excuses for why the $VIX isn't popping, the guiltier they look. I realized this was what I was seeing on Friday, when I was watching a little CNBC.

 I watched a little "options action (the CNBC show) after Friday's close, in order to get a good read on what the enemy is doing, and Carter Worth - the one they now call "the chart master" - which is downright laughable - must have pointed to half a dozen bullish setups, yet he doesn't see the one on the one on the $SPX? I think the only thing I can agree with him on is Gold, because it's testing long term support, and any idiot with a long term chart can see that! 

He may also be right on Oil, and I already called $85 support....     

Of course they all tried to make excuses for why the $VIX isn't popping.

The real reason why the $VIX isn't popping    

  • The breadth of this market sell-off has been very narrow. 

a. Thursday, financials actually ended up.  

b. Friday semiconductors ended about flat. 

c. The energy bears were the biggest losers last week, but energy is not heavily weighted sector. 

Turns out it was the Energy bears who won, on Sept. OPEX, and if you trusted my analysis on Energy and had the guts to buy PUTS, you won big! 

  • Simply put; the bulls are playing some kind of shell game, as they quietly re-baleen their holdings ahead of 3rd quarter window dressing.   

Questions 

I still have a lot of questions about this market, and Joe Biden threatening to use military action, against, yet another super-power doesn't help. 

 Biden says U.S. (forces) would defend Taiwan in a Chinese invasion reuters 

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Saturday, September 17, 2022

Market Update 9/7/22 - Why is the $VIX so low?

 Why is the $VIX so low? 

This question seems to be getting asked a lot, lately, and the answers I'm seeing, that are being given by the so called "experts", just don't jive.

The first thing the so called experts like to claim, is that, "The $VIX isn't a fear gauge". 

While technically true, the $VIX wasn't created to be, nor is it advertised as, a "fear gauge". 

See the short video clip provided by the cboe: Making Sense of the VIX Index


What the $VIX actually measures is implied volatility, as expressed by options buying on the $SPX. That's what actually moves the $VIX. 

You've all heard that, "the market doesn't like uncertainty", well...   

  • When uncertainty (fear) is high, investors load up on PUT options.

  • When uncertainty (fear) is low, then investors will buy Call options. 

In short, the $VIX is actually a measure of uncertainty (fear) in the market.  

Fact checking the so called experts claims that the $VIX isn't a fear gauge: FALSE    

Taking a look at the current $VIX in today's market environment 

 
Although the $VIX trading at 26 isn't historically "low", by any sense of the word, as traders, we recognize that the $VIX is not spiking higher, as it usually does, in a broad market sell-off. 
Why is this, and why are the experts doing everything in their power, to lie about it?  

The main reason - as far as I can tell - is that this simply isn't a broad market sell-off,
 The market breadth doesn't point to a shakeout across the board, but more of a re-balancing, as we trade into the second half of the year. 

Certain sectors are selling off, and certain sectors aren't: 

Thursday we actually saw financials up, and yesterday (Options Expiration) Friday, the semiconductor sector actually ended up slightly. While we did see a little shakeout in the energy sector, that sector is not heavily weighted, and doesn't affect the $VIX much. We saw the Russell 2000 down quite a bit, but again the $VIX which correlates with the Russell (the $RVX), was only up 1%.   

The experts, most of whom work for one hedge fund or another, don't want to let on to what's really going on, because these are the folks who move markets. These are the money managers, and the market movers, and they don't want to show their hand. They are in the business of making money, and that doesn't necessarily mean, making you money, so be careful who you trust!     

Only trust the $VIX, not what you see being reported by the financial fake news. When the market is bracing itself for a correction, as it was in the beginning of the year, when the $VIX traded straight to 38.94, but ever since then, the $VIX has continued it's descent. Even as the main stream media reports a war with Russia, and the threat that the fed is going to cause a hard landing, or a "recession".   

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Friday, September 16, 2022

Market Update 9/16/22 - weekly wrap-up

 I should probably wait until after today's trading session to wrap-up the trading week, but I don't like working weekends. If it becomes necessary, I can always add a second update, but I think we're seeing a reversal this morning.

Today, I'm giving away free charts, so if you have money waiting to be put to work, this could be your lucky day! 

I've already had another excellent week, as it turns out! 

It was one of those rare moments when you get it perfectly right, and like I said on twitter... 

    

And this:


And the rug pulled out on the Oil trade 







This morning

 Many of you are probably asking, "what triangle"? 

This Triangle! You see, I've been doing this so long, that at this point, I recognize chart patterns instinctively. I no longer need to draw them, although many times I still do, but this one was obvious. 


It's called an ending diagonal triangle. Don't forget it! 


GOLD 

I like gold in my pocket, but I also like the gold trade here 

If you were paying attention yesterday, you should already be long 

The reversal on a st view, this morning 

Yesterday, I was watching the chart chick on Bloomberg talking to some idiot about the $VIX, and they were trying to spin some tall tail about why the market could crash, yet the $VIX could stay down around the 30 level? Total lie! These people are looking for a 20% sell-off on the $SPX, and obviously have skin in the game! I'll give chart chick the benefit of the doubt, and say, she let this shark come on her show, as a personal favor, but I'm sorry I even turned the sound up to listen to that garbage.   

I'm not going to make a prediction on the $VIX, because it's better to trade the market you have, than the market you want, but I know exactly where the $VIX is going in a 20% market correction, and it ain't gonna look like 30. Try 34, 35, 36's, $VIX 62.50, even....! 

But there's just absolutely no fear in this market, when the $VIX ends the day up only .42%, as it did yesterday. 

Take care, and have a great weekend! 

AA 


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Thursday, September 15, 2022

Market Update 9/15/22 - This Market Is In Trouble?


Market Is In Trouble? 

...says who? Some analysis at Morgan Stanley? 

Look, if you've followed me for any length of time, then you already know that Morgan Stanley is one of the firms who has been bearish, and aggressively shorting the market, for some time. This is nothing new. 

Others like JPM, are bullish, so you have this back and forth, between the bulls and the bears, but in the end these people are on the same team, kind of like the Democrats and Republicans. Both sides are out to screw us, and take our hard earned money.

But who is this character who trolled me yesterday? Look closely and you'll see his identity is disguised, and his twitter profile provides a location in Texas, and nothing else. I suspect he works for one of the hedge funds.  I assume, anyone who takes time out of their busy schedule to troll me, is being paid to do so, and they usually came at me with a stupid question like, "you can't be serious".    

1. #Rule in trading, never trust anyone, who claims to be anonymous.  

On a more serious note: 

I don't claim to be a psychic, but I do have this uncanny ability to piece things together. I don't know what to call it, other than intuitive, but there's something more to it. For instance; I knew something bad was coming, a couple years before Covid, and the lock-downs that followed, and I started preparing way ahead of the event. I saw it coming in the charts, even though I didn't actually know what "it" was. 

Most recently is was Pelosis trip to Taiwan, and the $SOX trade, but I could give 100's of examples...  

Anyhow, way before I saw the story - below - in the news, I knew something was up.  Blinken has made several trips to Ukraine, over the past several months, so I knew we must be up to no good!  

     
Blinken says Ukraine has made 'significant progress' in counteroffensive Reuters 



This morning this all came together in a tweet, I found in my timeline.

What I'm actually referring to is the content of the video, of what look like US special forces on the ground.

This morning we see Putin, and XI, meeting, and this is significant, from a biblical perspective. 

In Prophecy right now - in a 90 sec video - linked thetrumpet.com


Mind blowing!

As I tweeted this morning 

If ever there was a time to prepare, that time is now! 

As far as today's trade, and the trade for the next several months, my outlook hasn't changed 

Trading this week reminds me of the same old trade we've been seeing for the past several months. Sell Tech, and pile into Energy. I'm not sure how much longer that can last, but I'm not chasing the herd. 

This market also reminds me of June, and July, where we were left waiting for the market to build as base, as others continued to call for "capitulation". 

The chart says it all: 

We either go back and fill the gap that was left behind in June - which I believe is foolishness 

Or we continue rallying into the Nov. Election 

$SPX - Market gaps up several days in a row. Bears come in an short it with a heavy hand. Trend remains higher, possibly much higher. We'll see... 



Thinking about adding the above chart to the public charts area, now that it looks like we have a nice setup, after this weeks pullback. 

Take Care, AA 






   
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Wednesday, September 14, 2022

Market Update 9/14/22 - Surveying the Damage After Yesterday's Selling

Surveying the Damage After Yesterday's Selling 

 I'm going to refer to yesterday's sell-off, as "selling", because it's pretty obvious to me that those who sold yesterday's CPI number are not investors, but pro traders who upon returning from summer break, had already decided it would be cute to take the $SPX down below the 50 day moving average, and trigger some sell orders, and this is exactly what they did!

The lousy Inflation number was a good excuse to rob investors. This is what #Wallstreet does best

— Veteran Market Timer (@3Xtraders) September 13, 2022

 I suspect they've been planning this for at least a few days, because of the way the $VIX buyers were seen jumping the gun, and pressing the 50 day moving average, on Monday. Thankfully the market wasn't taken down on Monday, or I might have been left holding the bag, but as I explained on Twitter, I was already leveraged (short), when I took profits.... 

Getting back to this engineered sell-off 

$SPX taken down - precisely - just below the 50 day ma. Think the corporate owned main stream media - with all their technology - doesn't see this for what it is, a shake down?  

This is so obvious, yet nobody on the corporate owned media will even touch it. Instead, they continue to fan the flames, of ever increasing, interest rate hikes, in an election year? Preposterous!   

The idea is that if inflation is high, the fed will start raising rates, at a faster rate, and that's a good excuse for a taper tantrum, yet the $VIX - as I eluded to again in yesterday's updates remains contained.

 Each time the market sells off on the same old news, and the $VIX continues to make lower highs. Yesterday,  the $VIX managed to eke out, another slightly higher recent high, but fear is way below where is was back in May and June, were the $VIX was trading in the high 30's.  

Review everything I pointed to in yesterday's updates and you should see what's likely about to happen next, and I would be betting on the house here, since every retail investor, and even as few hedge funds - who have been mostly wrong this year - is short. 

The next chart - attached to my tweet - says it all: 

Counts like a panic wave "e" zigzag. 2. Looks like a broadening top. 

Without giving away where I believe the market is going to be trading in November, I can tell you that the $VIX is the thing to watch, and even Karen Finerman at CNBC knows that much  


Where's the market likely going next? 

Make a hefty - $100 - donation to this website, and I'll be happy to reveal my upside targets.  

Of course the bears would like to fill the gap's left behind back in July, because they obviously missed the boat. 

Someone on LinkedIn actually had the nerve to ask me yesterday, what I would buy in order to hedge against a market crash - suggesting 3X short tech ($TECS or $SQQQ) or some other nonsense - I didn't pay that much attention because this doofus obviously doesn't even follow this blog, or he would know where I stand....

For months I've been telling folks to sell the so called safety trades - Heakthcare/ Utilities/ Commodities), and to get over your fear, or you're going to end up broke, just like most every retail short seller I know did in 08, because the market didn't crash until we were all squeezed out.  That ain't going to happen a second time, not in my lifetime! 

This is what I want you to do with $TECS this morning 





Take Care, AA       

     







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Tuesday, September 13, 2022

Market Update 9/13/22 - 5 Reasons Why Today's Sell-off Is Either Bullish, or Bearish

 I figured I'd do a quick update, since we've seen quite a pullback this morning. 

 The $VIX was bought at the 50 day moving average, so this selling seems to have been planned, ahead of time. 

$VIX  1. bought at the 50 day ma. 2. Sold at the top of the range - in black. 


The $SPX was also taken down at the 50 day ma. Really an armature looking shakeout, if you ask me. 

That's all market bullish, and especially so, with OPEX Friday, only a few days a away! 

2. It's also Bullish because money needs to be put to work, as Money managers return from their summer break, and you can bet these are some of the same people shorting the market this morning. 

3. Gap Fills are bullish targets. The only sector I'm watching that hasn't filled the gaps left behind over the past several days, are in the Energy sector. 

Russell 2000 offers a good example of gaps being fill, as well as the gap left behind this morning 



4. The trend remains very much higher 

$SPX - 30 min. view 


5. Is the timing with Sept. OPEX Friday just around the corner! 

Easy bullish call 

Don't fight the trend, friend. 

Good Luck, AA 


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Market Update 9/13/22 - How to Trade the Most Hated Rally of the Year

 This rally is starting to look a lot like the previous one. $SOX isn't leading tech, and money continues to flow into defensive sectors, and speculative trades like Silver, and crypto.  

Still it was a good trade. Very predictable, and tradeable. $FAS - and most other 3X leveraged bull ETF's are up nearly 20% from where I called the bottom of wave A, and nobody seems to be excited about it?     

I haven't had any trouble trading this rally, after calling the bottom last week, but apparently some traders, and even quite a few hedge funds have.... so, I thought I'd offer some tips, and clear a few things up. 

Why would traders prefer to hate a rally, than make money trading one?

1. Overwhelming bearish sentiment can leave you like a deer in the headlights, when you should be pulling the trigger on a bottom. You'll have to figure out how to get over your own bias, on your own, but I have a couple tips. 

a. Charting the $VIX helps me get past my own bearishness. If the $VIX isn't showing any fear, and it's not trading at complacency levels (below 12 for instance), then the fear is only in your own gut. 

b. Fear is contagious, so tune out social media, and trade alone. Many folks will try to convince you that you shouldn't trade alone, but most of them have something to sell you. When I trade I don't want suggestions, or outside opinions.    

c. Tune out the overwhelmingly bearish news. Most times the news is not that bad. What's the market worried about today? That the fed is going to raise rates too much, or too fast. and cause a recession, although we won't call it "recession"? 

Look, the fed has come out and said, "we're going to fight inflation", 100's of times, and the lame stream media, has reported it over a thousand times, but in actuality the fed has done everything in it's power to NOT act, and a year later, rates remain at ridiculously low levels, historically speaking. There's an old saying, "money talks, bullshit walks".     

Now you hear the official narrative change to one of "deflation", or
"disinflation", just in time... and just as I have been predicting for months. 

29 minutes ago: 

The Fed is fighting inflation. Could deflation be its next battle? cnn fake news 

What's "transitory", as it turns out, is the feds empty promises to pull the punch bowl away, in an election year, but I digress!   

2. Learn Elliott Wave Theory - Elliott Wave Theory may not be a magic bullet, but it sure is a great tool to have in your tool box.  I recognized that last weeks, "Tuesday surprise" (shakeout) looked like an oversold condition, and counted like a "zigzag" (on the $VIX). If you knew what a "zigzag pattern" was, you would've had a good idea about was probably about to come next.

AAPL - Trades into an oversold zigzag - looks like an oversold wave "b" (of wave iv) possibly. Wave c is powerful, like an impulse.   




3. Markets are cyclical - how many times do I have to point out that money managers return from vacation in Sept. and their job is to put money to work. Sure, some years Sept. may not be a great month, but what if the market is already oversold..?  

I had a lot more I wanted to get to today, but I think it's better to teach a man how to fish, than hand him a fish.    

How much longer can this rally last? 

1. This rally already seems to be losing steam, and I suspect the momentum is about to grind to a halt, but you know how this market is. It's seems to continue trading stupidly, for much longer than one would expect. Some of this probably has to do with the timing around Friday's Monthy OPEX. 

2. This is just a much harder market to trade, with machines, and retail traders making their decisions based on meaningless moving averages, and so much dumb money still in the system. 

3. The fed printed so much money, and the government continues to spend hand over fist, and that money remains in the system, and has to go somewhere. 

 Here are some places I see the dumb money going: 

1. Crypto 

2. Healthcare 

3. Utilities 

4. Commodities 

5.  Real estate bubbles 

When this all unwinds, I'm not sure where the money goes, but into the bottomless pit? This is what deflation is all about, and there will be few places to hide...   

Take Care, AA 


P.S. related news 



 

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Monday, September 12, 2022

Market Update Saturday 9/10/22 - Just Another Short Squeeze Friday, or Could Things Be Different This Time?

I started this update Saturday morning, but didn't get very far; Picking up where I left off... 

Was Friday's Trade, Just Another Short Squeeze Friday, or Could Things Be Different This Time? 

I believe, Short Squeeze Friday, is a term we coined during the '08 crash; although it may go back earlier; I couldn't find any historical context for it.   

I pointed out on Friday that this looked like a bear trap, and it wasn't long after the opening bell, I was able to confirm it. 

The bears don't like being trapped going into a weekend, and especially, the first (trading) Monday of the month, after the long summer break.   

9 Short Squeeze Stocks That Could Take Off in September money.usnews.com

All the above information I've provided over the past several months, should help you to trade future rallies that take place this time of year, if you somehow managed to miss this one.   

$SPX 30 min chart - Tweeted Friday - shows exactly how the bears were trapped - as the opening bid was raised above resistance.  

2. The market also broke out above the right shoulder I pointed on in Friday's update. 

3. The $SPX broke above the 50 day moving average, which triggered more buying. 

Note: This morning the DOW is set to breakout above the 50 day ma... 


I'm not sure if this rally has legs longer, term; resistance looks like the 4175 level on the $SPX, as seen on the short term chart above, but there's also resistance, at the 200 day moving average.   

I think the catalyst for a pullback could be a week from today, ahead of the next fed announcement.

BofE also reports on the 22nd, after postponing the decision for a week, after the death of QEII.   

 Monthly OPEX is this Friday - looks bullish at this point - now that the bears have been trapped  

FOMC meets the 21-22 - could see a pullback ahead of that. Possibly a nasty Monday hangover, after Sept. OPEX? 

Oil & Energy 

Last week I eluded to the rigged oil trade, but I didn't reveal it in the charts - except on twitter 

This $OIL chart shows where the lower trend line was pulled, and the 200 day moving average taken out as well.... 
$OIL - updated chart - Today we see $OIL back-testing res. at my red line 


So, in hindsight, not only did the market bears get schlonged on Friday, but so did the Oil bears...  

I don't usually like to reveal my personal trades, but I did tweet this on Friday

As well as this... 

Futures look pretty weak this morning, but green non-the-less 

Looks like the $SPX 4100 level is going to be the level to watch this morning

Also watching the short term trend on the NASDAQ - obvious support at the 50 day ma 

 

Oil and Gas drillers have rallied sufficiently into what could be a wave 2 suckers rally. 


I still see lots of bulls coming on Bloomberg to pump their overweight positions in energy, and as far as I know, the fast money traders are still bullish... so I'd look for a correction there. 




Good luck this week, 
AA





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