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Wednesday, November 30, 2022

Market Update 11/30/22 - Dull Market Continues

 Market couldn't pull back much yesterday, for all the reasons I laid out in yesterday's update, although it did pull back slightly intra-day, and if you're able to get in and out of trades quickly, then you may be able to make a little money trading this market. Buy the dips; sell the rips. 

Volume remains pretty light, and you can see for yourself, what that does for market direction... we have been trading in the same range for the past 2-3 weeks. No wonder the cable news needs to make up a different story every day, and report 2 day winning streaks, in order to keep investors watching..!  

In the news 

You can pretty much find what ever story suits your fancy: 

  1. The stock market rally isn't over yet, Deutsche Bank strategist says
  2. Bear Market in Stocks Hasn't Ended Yet: Goldman Sachs says

Good example of why nothing else matters, but the charts 

Powell Speaks today, and I wasn't sure why... until I saw Bloomberg pushing a leftist agenda... can't seem to find any of the images, I saw them using on live TV, but maybe by tomorrow.... 

As far as the short term trade is concerned, I wouldn't be arguing with the chart, this time of year.

The trend is up, and can certainly remain that way, into the holidays. 

$INDU - the Dow continues to lead.... possible 35500 target, as long as the trend continues... 


Rally into Hanukkah, or at least into Powell's speech, and into a gap fill, on the $VIX. 

 Take Care, AA 


Tuesday, November 29, 2022

Market Update Technical Tuesday 11/29/22

 I haven't been on line much lately, because the market is slow, and it's an easy read, and I got some other projects I've been working on.... 

Yesterday's market action 

Looked like your typical Monday morning surprise, complete with fake news out of China 

Zero-Covid protests rock China, and Western markets nytimes

The Newsletter 

I managed to send out a Newsletter, yesterday morning (Monday), which ties in yesterday's (manufactured) bad news - out of China - with the prediction I made last wed. 

Red Alert: Bad News - Incoming!

Speaking of China 

As many news outlets were reporting on how global markets were rattled by protests in China, Chinese stocks didn't even sell off, and it wasn't until the market had closed, that Bloomberg finally reported that the Golden Dragon Index actually ended up; regardless of what CNN, FOX, CNBC, and Bloomberg see, as their greater mission. 

Like I said in Wednesday's update this is brain washing, and it's quite surreal to watch play out, after predicting it.   

This just goes to show, that most of what is reported by the western media, has little basis in reality. It insults my intelligence to even watch it anymore, so I watch with the sound off.  

I've come to expect the media, and even social media, to be used to the globalists advantage

Regardless of who owns Twitter; the algos are programmed to push the same fake stories, so I don't suppose my complaints will do much good. 

Musk, himself, has joked about people who complain about Twitter, yet continue to use it, but I think this trend could change, once people wake up to the fact that their thought process is being manipulated.

If any of the above analysis sounds a little crazy to you:

  Project MKUltra was an illegal human experimentation program designed and undertaken by the U.S. Central Intelligence Agency, intended to develop procedures and identify drugs that could be used in interrogations to weaken individuals and force confessions through brainwashing and psychological torture - wiki 

Yesterday's market action - continued  

Traders return to a Monday morning surprise - mostly in energy, but I also noticed the Russell 2000, and financials gapped down. Not to mention Apple 

$AAPL - 

This just felt like a little engineered shakeout, and one which is obviously going to be short lived, looking at my charts. 

For instance: The $VIX was sold exactly where you would expect - back below - 22.37 - (the previous Nov. low). 

Speaking of the $VIX: Do you realize that the $VIX has been driven within a hair's breath of the magic 20 level. Didn't I tell you the powers that be, would take full advantage of the low holiday volume..?  

This morning you see futures up, and China up 3.5%? Watch the lame stream media try to discount that! 

I could've told you there was absolutely 0% chance that the market was going to sell off today. 

Looking forward: 

As I stated last week, things aren't expected to pick up, until next week, where we should get a 2 week (normal) trading window, ahead of Dec. OPEX, and the holidays. I figure the month is almost over, and new money get's put to work at the beginning of each month, and the short sellers aren't going to go short into another weekend (coming up), but we'll see... 

We also have a FOMC announcement coming up on the 15th, and if we get a pullback, ahead of that, then we could see Dec. OPEX manipulated higher (again), just ahead of an early Hanukkah (which starts on the 18th). On the other hand, the fed announcement may be used as an excuse to take profits, before the end of the year. God know they want to do a re-balancing, and raise some cash.... rather than continue to chase energy stocks in 2023! 

It's hard to predict how that all plays out, but it should all become clearer, as each event unfolds. 

Take Care, AA 

Wednesday, November 23, 2022

Market Update Wed 11/23/22 -Thanksgiving Eve - Red Alert: Bad News - Incoming!

 This morning, a little after 4AM: I was watching CNBC World Wide Exchange (WWE) - on the DVR - as I normally do - and I caught wind of some bad news in the works.  

I usually only watch the teaser/ intro... just to see what (5) headlines they're pushing, but this morning something compelled me to watch for nearly a full 5 minutes... and it didn't take long for Senior Markets Correspondent Dominic Chu to let the cat out of the bag! 

Paraphrasing: I heard him report something to the effect that, "some investors are looking for a bigger downturn, than we've already seen"?

As I Alerted This Morning 

I can't imagine what they have up there sleeve in the way of manufactured bad news, which will no doubt be used to take markets down again, but this is their MO, and the charts agree.      

Whatever they have planned, just remember the images on the screen are probably only an illusion, designed to steal your money; From the flashing red banners, and (red) flashing tickers, to the made up headlines. It's mind control. 


Tuesday, November 22, 2022

Another phenomenal trade! + Tesla $TSLA

Time to declare victory on yet another phenomenal trade, and that would be, yesterday's swing trade in Oil!  

1. Not only did we just catch a 27% gain, in (2X leveraged) Ultra Bloomberg Crude Oil Bear $SCO. 

2. But we also caught a 10% return trip, in the Ultra Bloomberg Crude Oil Bull $UCO   

Mentioned this trade in a tweet last week: 

Then again Yesterday: 

How did I accomplish this Phenomenal (nearly 40%) swing trade? 

1. I was trading commodities (oil) rather than Tech, or some other dead sector. 

2. I didn't let on that I was short oil, until Friday. This kept me from being targeted by the hedge funds, or the Saudi Sheikhs, who follow me. 

3. I stuck with the short side of this trade for nearly 3 weeks.  

4. I had the help of the fake news was on my side, and the fast money clowns, at CNBC, and by that time I was already up quite a bit.   

5. I waited until capitulation, on yet another Monday morning surprise, before taking profits 

6. Lots of charting, and a little luck. Finding the pivot point on this trade, was not all that difficult.   

7. Took profits, and moved on to the next trade, because after a couple big moves like this, you're likely going to see a lot of nothing - expecting choppy sideways consolidation, and perhaps even a retest of lows. Common sense dictates that if you missed the boat in Oil, then it's not worth chasing, after.... 

Yesterday was a BIG fake news day! 


1. Oil 

Oil Rumor as allegedly reported by the formerly credible WSJ, and a simultaneous downgrade by government Sachs? 
Oil Prices Plunge As OPEC+ Considers Production Hike

2. China lock-downs return - now that the short sellers of Chinese stocks have been sufficiently squeezed  

China locks down key transportation hub; markets fear economic fallout Laura He Reported and Digital Producer, CNN Business 

3. The Fed governors are making bearish statements again, soon after the rigged Nov. OPEX date, or it that the lame stream media only started reporting it, yesterday? I think it's the latter. The MSM helped the bulls squeeze the short sellers into the shortened holiday week, and now they can start reporting bearish news again.

4. More bearish Elon Musk News    

  Today we finally see the lame stream media reporting that Elon Musk has lost a cool $100bn, and that round number target may have been the goal of the banksters who are embedded in the deep state? 

Tesla $TSLA - raising this to a strong buy, for obvious technical reasons, including bullish capitulation, followed by fake headlines. 

For disclosure, I don't own Tesla stock, and wouldn't need to disclose it, if I did... because I'm not a financial advisor! 

The Next Big Trade  

I see a big trade coming, but as usual it's going to cost you $99. 

This much I can tell you; it's a sector trade, and it's not in anything that's commodities driven. 

Take Care, and have a happy Thanksgiving, 


Monday, November 21, 2022

Market Update Monday 11/21/22 - Thanksgiving week

 As I pointed out in the most recent Weekly News Letter, it was no surprise to see the market engineers, continue to hold the market up, going into Friday November OPEX. This was so that they would get paid on the bullish Call Options they no doubt purchased back in early Oct.  

I think the biggest gains were seen in Chinese stocks, such as Alibaba $BABA   

 $BABA - see the massive white candle, 1 day before Options Expiration 

It obviously wasn't just China, which helped lift markets. Countless names have been driven back to, or above resistance, as short sellers were forced to cover their positions, ahead of the holidays; Names like Honeywell, Mondelez (formerly Kraft foods), and Caterpillar.  

The retail space has seen massive gains, since the Oct. lows!  

Sketchers $SKX - for instance - up 25% 

Have you charted Walmart lately $WMT - up nearly 50% off the June lows. It's now trading only $9 off the all time highs! 


Energy didn't lead last weeks rally, yet the Call options - purchased earlier in the year - continue to pay. 

I do think there's a good chance we could finally see profit taking in energy, now that OPEX has passed.  


Oil tanked, after breaking below the bottom of the pattern, we were watching on Thursday

Called in real time: 

I actually saw the bearish set-up ahead of time:

This morning, I hear the MSM that Oil is set to rally here, so the TV traders must have already taken profits. 

Here's CNBC seen declaring victory on Friday, only 1 day after Fast Money said they are bearish oil. 

I'm not really sure what to make of that, and as I pointed out last week, the bullish trend on Oil certainly isn't broken 

Where is the market going from here? 

We're going back to fill some gaps, I think. 

Could be sooner, rather than later, and this certainly needs to get done before normal trading resumes in 2 weeks.  

 $SPX - gap target looks like around 3800 - before Dec. 6th

If you look for that gap on the NASDAQ you'll find that it's a much bigger correction...

Will be interesting to see how it plays out over the next couple weeks. 

Take Care, and have a happy Thanksgiving...  AA 

Friday, November 18, 2022

Market Update 11/18/22 Nov. Options Expiration Friday - Just Ahead Of Another Holiday - Thanksgiving

 I don't have much time this morning, so let's get to it! 

Seeing futures up, after yesterday's sell-off, and I still think there's a good chance we see the market dumped this morning, as investors run for the exits, in a mad rush to lock in profits, ahead of the holidays. But there's a much bigger reason we could see a bloody OPEX, and that's because there's a lot of money riding on that bet! 

When I first hear this story reported yesterday, I wasn't sure what to make of it

This morning I found this related - to options expiration volume - story, from Bloomberg  

Investment Giants With $2.3 Trillion Bet on More Market Turmoil 

The funny thing is, the $VIX actually closed down on the day, and this sets up for a backlash. 

There are plenty of bearish indicators and patterns to chose from including this one on the $RUT
$SPX - The short term looks like a bounce back to a lower recent high - bearish. The stop-hunt seems to be just below the 3972 level, with key EW support, at the previous high (3866) 

The larger view looks way more bearish, and even CNBC's Carter Worth, can see that much, and no doubt the fast money boiler-room crew is preparing to trash the market! 

Here they are showing their hand: 
I don't have time to check out the pattern C. Worth, is trying to sell here, but there is one chart I can debunk, and that's the oil chart he was seen peddling, on CNBC Fast Money last night. 

Watch the video clip for yourself: 


In unrelated news: Government agencies are now begin called upon to go after Elon Musk.  

Senate Democrats urged the Federal Trade Commission (FTC) Thursday to investigate Twitter over potential consumer protection violations after changes made to the platform in recent weeks under the helm of new CEO Elon Musk.

Have a great weekend, and happy Turkey Day!  


Wednesday, November 16, 2022

Market Update 11/16/2022 - closing in on Friday Nov. Options Expiration (OPEX), with only 3 days to go....

Low volatility continues, and since it looks like I have an excellent handle on the current market, this looks like a good opportunity to take some time off! I may still provide an update in the morning, and I'll defiantly continue sending out weekly news letters, but I have plenty of other things I should be focused on as the holidays get closer. I already have some remodeling projects lined up, and I figure I got 2 weeks, until we return to normal trading around Monday Dec. 5th. 

If you're focused on the shorter term, then you should already know who reports on Thursday, just ahead of OPEX. One stock the Fast Money boiler room crew is watching is, "Palo Alto Networks", and for good reason - Options Expiration! 


One of the most important discoveries I've made - charting, trading, and watching a lot of news over the past 15, 20, 30 years, is that markets are manipulated according to timeline. They're cyclical! This is why I have to laugh, when newbies ask for timelines, because they're in some kind of hurry... 

When you're thinking timelines, you should be looking out several weeks, not days. 


Since you can't trade time lines accurately without knowing what's coming up on the calendar; your homework, is to figure out how many days of normal trading we can expect, after Dec. 5th - when normal trading resumes (after the thanksgiving break) - until the end of the year, and how Dec. Options Expiration, will likely be affected. That's a tall order.      

Few traders are focused on the real reason the stock market seems so resilient, because they believe the market trades according to fundamentals - for instance on better than expected earnings. 

I knew earnings would be the catalyst for this rally, several weeks ago, but earnings are only being used as an excuse to drive markets higher, and that's why the lame stream media remains focused on it, instead of the fear of what the fed might do next, which is all they covered back in August.     

This morning the lame stream media is focused on:

1. Trump announcing his candidacy (last night), and trying to paint a gloomy picture ... because the fascists who control the MSM, prefer the corporatocracy, to a true Democracy. This is the same reason they hate Elon Musk, and the idea of freedom of speech, in social media; as the fascists want to maintain their grip on the official narrative. The truth is whatever their, fact checkers say it is, and anyone who questions... can be shouted down, banned, or defunded.

Speaking of the official narrative     

2. This morning the MSM is quietly walking back their comments on the supposed, Russian Missile Attack, that upset markets yesterday! 

Luckily I can usually smell a BS news story from a mile away, and this one was easier to spot than most.... 

 3. Earnings - Yesterday is was Home Depot, today it's Lowe's   

Lowe's is a good example of a stock that remains in a bubble, but certainly could continue to bounce back, in the near term. It's just that time of year, where short sellers are decreasing their positions, and manipulation is running rampant. 

What happens in 2023, the market could care less. It's all about getting paid on those options, after selling a bearish story to the public, all summer. 

Watch the $VIX 

As I said in Monday's Update 

 Watch the most manipulated index of all, the $VIX 

The $VIX was taken down below the previous low, on that good CPI number, leaving a big gap behind. I really doubt it's going to be allowed to even break out above 26.   


$VIX manipulation documented, using a 10 min chart 

Only idiots, running some hedge funds, would come up with the idea of manipulating the 10 min $VIX chart, and there's nothing I'd like more than to see this blow up in their faces! 

I think there's actually a good chance of that, but like I said yesterday, the market is unlikely to crash here, and even if it does, traders will be away from their desks next week. 

Take Care, AA 

Tuesday, November 15, 2022

Market Update 11/15/22 - G20 Monster Trade Low Volatility

 Today I want to talk about the lack of volatility in the market, and 2 monster trades, most traders missed  

First: The Lack of Volatility in an otherwise dull market 

In yesterday's lengthy update, I asked the question How Long Can The Market Hold Up?

Then I preceded to give you several reason why it likely will hold up into the thanksgiving holiday; the main reason being that nobody is going to build a big short position, going into a holiday, and the powers that be - knowing this - have driven the market in to a capitulation top, so they can collect on their Call Options, this week! 

We've seen this story so many times before, and If I've said it once, I've said it 1000 times, "never sell a dull market"! 

 In this weeks news letter I called last weeks dull market, "the calm before the storm", which I identified as the most recent Crypto crash, but in hindsight it looks like the powers that be - the globalists - who are meeting at the G20 in Bali - is the more obvious reason (for the low volatility).    

There's an old saying - I used to hear on Fast Money - that you don't hear much any more, that "nothing good ever comes out of the G20", meaning that it's not usually a big market mover, although this time was different.    

$CZH (China Index) which I pointed to in a recent update - is up 50% since Oct.!   

US-China Trade and Investment the Winner After Biden-Xi G20 Meeting 

China was a great trade, and continues to run, but for some reason it got very little coverage. and now that CNBC is pointing to it, that should be the kiss of death, for that rally! 

I wouldn't touch this trade, for all the tea in China, pun intended! 😆

How is it that a market like China lose over 75% of it's value in only 2 years, and the main stream media doesn't even cover it, but then when it rallies 2% on a Monday, CNBC reports that? This has to be a set up, or a dog whistle to the short sellers. 

How worthless is the lame stream media?    

This morning Bloomberg is reporting that market futures are higher because "investors are hopeful for a fed pivot".  No, I'm not making this up, I actually read this ridiculous - banner - headline! 😆  

Meanwhile Bloomberg, buries the real news that Joe Biden is sick, yet again! 

How many times can one person get sick? 

Exhibit A 

Exhibit B

Biden coughs into hand, proceeds to shake hands with public while maskless


Biden mingled without a mask less than a week after one of his Cabinet members tested positive for COVID-19 Oct. 25th, 2021


Exhibit C

Joe Biden’s Coughing and farting and other embarrassing royal moments for Americans

Nov. 12th, 2022

Exhibit D

Coughing Biden Says He Has a Cold USNews Dec. 3, 2021

Exhibit E

Biden says he’s ‘doing well’ after testing positive for COVID-19

Exhibit F 

Biden coughs through CHIPS bill signing speech after COVID-19 isolation August 9, 2022

Exhibit G
The Internet seems to have been completely scrubbed of Joe Biden complaining that that he caught a cold, in his comments at the G20, yesterday.   

Still searching 40 min. later 

Biden: "Excuse me, I have a cold" @ 55 sec. 

Excess deaths AND long-term sickness dramatically increased in the UK 

Getting back to the G20 

What does the G20 do?  

The Group of Twenty, an informal gathering of many of the world’s largest economies, is the premier global forum for discussing economic issues.

 What does this have to do with the low volatility?

Look, there are a lot of big shots at the G-20, and if these whales aren't trading, that removes a lot of liquidity from the market, but the chance that something big may come out of these meetings also keep the short sellers at bay. 

Same thing happens when the globalist meet in Davos. The market generally trickles to a halt.

Another Trade I wanted to mention is financials 

It's normal for financials to lead a market rally, and that's why I called it out again, back in October was it?  

Of course, what goes up, must come down, so this is another sector to watch 

My guess is we see another retest of the highs. 

Yesterday, fast money traders said they were afraid of yesterday afternoon's sell-off, but those guys must not watch the $VIX. If you did... then you would know that there is absolutely no fear in this market! 

I think we're still on track for a close above 4000, on the $SPX. 

Good Luck, AA 

Monday, November 14, 2022

Market Update Monday 11/14/22 - How Long Can The Market Hold Up?

 As I touched on in this weeks news letter, this is a very confused, and complicated market, but one thing is for sure, and that is that the, "bearish capitulation", we've seen as of late, is reminiscent of the short squeezes we saw back in 07 - '08, and especially the most recent leg of this rally, which was propelled by last weeks good CPI report

Of course the CPI report was only used as an excuse to drive markets higher, as this was on the back of a bullish back-test on the DOW (at the 200 day moving average). Like I said, the banksters know what the number is before it's released, and I have no doubt that information was leaked to the hedge funds. 

There's just no other explanation for an immediate 800 point gap up, on a CPI number.  

The Dow Index  

Of course most traders don't even look at the Dow, so they wouldn't even know that industrial's lead the most recent rally, and if you don't even know what's leading, you have little hope of finding the reversal. 

Most traders are bullish tech, and at least tech rallied back somewhat, with a little help from China.

 If you caught Friday's update.... then you know that the catalyst for last weeks rally in tech, actually started in China, so in order to time US markets, you really need to chart China as well....

Bear market rallies, are pumped, and dumped, 1 sector at a time, but when the lame stream media doesn't report a stealth rally, then most investors are left in the dark. This seems to be the whole point... to keep the average investor confused, and even I have found myself struggling to read this market.    

What's really odd, is that the Dow, which normally lags the rest of the market, would lead a market rally, but this is the sector they (the manipulators) decided to pump. I have a future blog in the works, in which I plan to expose the racketeers, but today we're just going to focus on the chart. 

The Charts 

$INDU (Dow industrials) - Watching this rigged index for the several reasons I just laid out above 

If you've familiarized yourself with the chart legend - linked to a tab at the top of this page - then you already know what the pink line represents. 

$SPX - looking at the updated "Morgan Stanley chart" - located in the public charts area - you'll find not only a new black pattern line, but also a key FIB target  (Fibonacci retracement), which just happens to line up with 4000, which is the psychological important round number target we're still watching! 

Looks like we're not going to have enough time to take out the Morgan Stanley target of 4150, after all. This rally just took too long..... 

New York Stock Exchange -   Looks like the top of the range  

Getting back to the question:  

how much longer the market can continue to hold up? 

I'd say it could be a week or two, before we see much downside momentum, but who is going to sell during the Thanksgiving holiday? Could be that European hedge funds are planning something like that, and what better time to take profits than while the short sellers are away..?    

I think the question of timing all depends on who is behind the recent manipulation, because everything depends on whether or not the Options market has been rigged, and by whom.... will it continue to be rigged (held up), or dumped, after loading up on bearish options bets? I was thinking it was the latter, but that was last week.  

It's a tough call, because in theory it would be so easy to run a market up into the end of the 4th quarter, and hold it up, on light holiday trading volume, just as we continue to see, week after week, in Energy markets.  I documented that in Thursday's Update, and low-and-behold Energy rallied into another weekly Options Expiration Friday. Didn't I tell you CNBC was only covering for the manipulators, when they reported that Options are only purchased after the market has moved, and not before hand? 

Speaking of the worthless lame stream media, Bloomberg is covering Biden's meeting with Xi, while at the same time, not mentioning the fact that the US Congress is rushing to arm Taiwan?!   

Another thing not being reported this morning, is the 3% rally in Crypto markets, and that's also for political reasons. A resilient Crypto market doesn't fit the official narrative.   

One thing I did hear on Gloomberg this morning, is that if you were invested in the Dow, in British Pounds, then you were actually up 8% for the year. Perhaps that helps explain some of the wacky market behavior? 

Things to watch this week

The thing to watch is the $USD, because if we see investors start stampeding back into the safety of the US dollar, that unwind the rally we just saw in equities. 

And as I always say: Watch the most manipulated index of all, the $VIX 

The $VIX was taken down below the previous low, on that good CPI number, leaving a big gap behind. I really doubt it's going to be allowed to even break out above 26.   

Let's assume the market is going to hold up into OPEX this week, because getting paid on your bullish options is the whole point of rigging markets. 

Take Care, AA 

Friday, November 11, 2022

Market Update 11/11/2022 - Weekly Wrap-up

 How about that rip your face rally, we finally got, in several beaten down sectors, yesterday? It's a shame we had to wait several weeks for it, and trade flat for several more days, but I suppose it takes time to load the algos (algorithms).... ahead of a good CPI number. No doubt Goldman Sachs and other embedded deep state actors knew what that number was going to look like weeks ago, and in hindsight it explain the lack of fear we've seen in the market, over the past few weeks. 

Speaking of Fear 

One thing I forgot to mention, in yesterday's update - from my notes - is the the CPI may be a catalyst for the $VIX to sell off, and that's exactly what we saw happen.  Like I said yesterday, there was little fear in the market to begin with... always trust the $VIX, not the hedge funds paid trolls, on twitter.  

Looking at my notes: I obviously have a lot on my plate this morning, and still updating the charts; I wanted to check the golden dragon chart... I know China re-opening is old rumor/ news at this point, but this was one of the catalysts for yesterdays massive rally, in beaten down tech stocks. 

Golden Dragon up 7.5% yesterday. Not bad! Sorry, can't show you the chart, but you probably aren't trading China, anyways. 

Better Late Than Never

Big Tech Finally Leads 

I was actually long big tech, and short Brazil, yesterday, and I got paid handsomely on both! 

$FNGD (3X FAANG Stocks) - up 26%! 

$BZQ (3X Brazil Bear) up another 16% - up 30% from where I purchased it! 

One of the biggest winners yesterday was the Crypto market, once again proving that the time to be greedy, is when others are scared.  

Did you know that CNBC fast money has been encouraging people to short tech stocks, while continuously pumping the energy sector? It's no wonder they didn't have much to say about yesterday's rally. However, they did mention the massive rally in Home Builders, and we know this sector is one of Jon Najarian's favorites. He's no longer on the show, but remember what I was saying yesterday, about his, "conspicuous absence"? 

$XHB (Homebuilders) up 10.65% for the week. The weekly chart below hasn't been updated for a while, but it's working as expected. 

Something to note on the housing sector: Notice that while the lame stream media continued to report that the market was taking out the June lows, the housing sector only pulled back to the higher low. 

$NAIL 3X Home Builders up 33%! This leveraged fund turns out to be a pretty good performer, but sadly there is no matching 3X short fund to swing trade.... 

Looking At The Bigger Picture

What we saw yesterday was just another engineered short squeeze  

Scared money continues to cling to energy stocks, and as long as that continues, then money isn't going to be put to work in other sectors. In other words, we're not seeing, "a risk off environment". 

$SPX  - The S&P 500 is only trading 50 handles above where it was trading last week, and the Wilshire 5000, only a lousy 300 points? Maybe this rally still has some life in it, but I'm still looking for a larger pullback.   

This morning we see the $SPX testing the 150 day moving average. Yes, fast money traders actually watch this level, and probably because they know retail investors don't...  

Another level to watch is 3950

$SPX 3995 is a key psychological level, we saw taking out in after hours trading, but you know the bulls have their sights set on the next round number target, 4000!  

Bears Trapped 

 I have no doubt the market will continue to hold up in to this weekly Options Expiration Friday. 

If we see a little pullback, then there's support at the breakout point, and more support at the 3900 level, but I think the earliest time we could see profit taking is next week 

Today's a Banking Holiday, and that's one of the reasons the market was run up, on Thursday. Many Traders have the rest of the week off. 

Things to watch:

1. The $USD aka the DXY - the sell-off in the dollar was the main driver of yesterday's rally, even more-so than the $VIX 

2. The $VIX 

3. I forget what #3 was; Oh yeah, Canada! 

$TSX Canada - if Canada can collapse along with the mining. and oil sands, then that money can be put to work in other areas of the market, and this rally can continue, otherwise scared investors are going to continue to hide in so called "safety trades". 

Have a great weekend, 


Thursday, November 10, 2022

Market Update 11/10/22 - Crypto, Energy, $VIX

Seems like only a few days ago, I was calling for a crash (Update Oct 26th), pointing out that something just didn't feel right about this market (Update 11/8), and warning folks about a blood moon (Update 11/8), and next thing you know, the market is selling off in a panic, or at least 1 market is.... 


I actually encouraged traders to pull the trigger on some crypto, just ahead of yesterday's close, and if you can't buy when there's blood in the streets, then you're not much of a trader, in my book. 

Speaking of the Book. I started writing a book, but then my perspective on the market started to change, and the market began to become more unpredictable. I'm afraid there are just too many variables, at this point, and who could have predicted the amount of manipulation we're seeing in markets. I could write an entire book on that, and it would sound conspiratorial to most readers. 

Speaking of market manipulation 


Seems that the same folks who were pumping energy last month, and calling for higher highs on heavily manipulated stocks like $XOM, are now calling for the same crash, I've been predicting for weeks now. This is surreal!  I'm still saving the energy manipulation story for another blog, because I have tons to evidence... and what can only be described as, " a lot of dirt", on CNBC. 

Speaking of CNBC 

I can't help but notice Jon Najarian's conspicuous absence. Seems as though he's left Fast Money for good, and I think that's smart... but I suspect he's still working with his cohorts, in the shadows.   

Someone else you no longer see on CNBC, is Peter Schiff. I suspect he's been blackballed for calling out the Money Masters, but he's a good follow on Twitter @PeterShiff. While he's seldom right on market direction, he is spot on, when it comes to the Fed, and Gold (theory), and lately I see him exposing the corrupt financial fake news (@ CNBC), and I need all the help I can get, trying to inform people on that front. If you're unfamiliar with the history of the federal reserve I suggest you watch the Money Masters Documentary on YouTube!   

There is no other way to describe what we are seeing in the corporate owned lame stream media than an information war, being waged. I don't know if this leads to a civil war, but these tech companies, and media companies, are the enemies of freedom, and democracy. 

Bloomberg again just yesterday evening, questioning Elon Musk's, radical idea of "free speech"! 

This after Joe Biden does a scripted press conference, where he states that his deep state agencies should be looking at Elon Musk, and I suppose it won't be long before they're calling him, "a Russian asset".  

The tech tyranny feels so threatened by the possible return of free speech, they've gone so far, as to petition the corporatocracy, to defund the (twitter) platform. 

See: —John Perkins, Confessions of an Economic Hit Man (2004)

Economic hit men (EHMs) are highly paid professionals who cheat countries around the globe out of trillions of dollars. They funnel money from the World Bank, the U.S. Agency for International Development (USAID), and other foreign “aid” organizations into the coffers of huge corporations and the pockets of a few wealthy families who control the planet’s natural resources. Their tools include fraudulent financial reports, rigged elections, payoffs, extortion, sex, and murder. They play a game as old as empire, but one that has taken on new and terrifying dimensions during this time of globalization. I should know; I was an EHM.

Back to the Energy Trade 

#NatGas pulls back. Call this, your "trade of the day". Short term direction, higher. 

Too bad the gd equities market can't pull back like Natural Gas, then we might not have to remain stuck in a range for weeks on end! 


Energy as a whole continues to hold up above the 2008 high. I believe this is because the options market has been rigged. 

$IXE - chart added to the public charts area. See the annotations: I suspect bullish Options have been purchased months out.  

 I've also added the 5 min energy chart to the public charts area, for your personal entertainment  

Brent crude is broken, but we're seeing buyers come in at the 50 day moving average - no chart 

The $VIX started breaking out yesterday, and I have learned not to argue with the $VIX. I suspect Fear is going to remain contained, and I'm looking for continued mixed markets, but if the $VIX continues to breakout, all bets are off the table. 

$VIX was only up 2% yesterday, so to date there is little fear in the market. 

Take Care, AA 


Wednesday, November 9, 2022

Market Update 11/9/22 - Market Lower On The Election Results

Today I plan to touch on the $VIX again, and the Crypto crash, but first allow me to rant on the stupid election coverage! 

This morning, I was watching - several different networks - coverage of the election results,  and it seems to me that Bloomberg is by far, the most incapable of writing an honest headline. They can't just report that the Republicans won back the house in a landslide, because they mustn't use the words, "republicans", and "win", in the same sentence, or they probably risk being fired. 

Between their nonstop politically bias coverage of everything, from the election, to climate, and even Elon Musk, the entire western media has become a joke.  

"Some races are still too close to call", but the idea that we can't even tabulate a vote at lightning speed, in 2022, should be the sad headline, and how do we even know that there is election integrity, when the power structure continues to call people "election deniers"? Who do you think is behind that message? See: 

How the National Security State Manipulates the News Media 


As an independent, I'm not celebrating this morning, because we didn't see a wholesale rejection of the entire power structure. I could give many examples of how the sheep went out and handed power back to the same people who have enslaved them, over the past several decades, and especially the past 2  and a half years, during the covid lock-downs. I imagine these must be the same idiots, racing to the next stoplight, with a mask on their face! 

As far as I'm concerned, nobody won, as the same people remain in power.  

What Does The Market Think About The Election Results?  

The market reaction is negative, because the market likes out of control spending, more than anything else, and even though there are few fiscal conservative left in congress, they will not be sending out any more free checks, at least not for a while.... 

Some folks claim that, "the market likes gridlock", but the market prefers open boarders, which fuel cheap labor, and everything else that's good for profits. This is in part why they had to run Donald Trump out of DC, so the 2 party system could get back to business as usual.      

So really, not much has changed, but we may see a little less spending on ridiculous nonsense, and that's going to help cool the run away inflation we've seen over the past couple years.  

Looking at the Technicals:

Yesterday, I stated that I believe that, "the powers that be", are using the low $VIX to load up on bearish Options bets, ahead of November Options expiration", and I still believe that, because I've seen this story play out a hundred times before. VIX sells off, or the market continues to rally, while the higher $VIX is ignored, and than all of a sudden, BOOM!  

Did you see the market reverse yesterday, on a dime, exactly where I said it would? 

In case you missed that, go back and see where I told you the $VIX was about to break out. 

Could I be wrong? Sure, we're only a few weeks away from the Thanksgiving holiday, and I believe we're already seeing short positions being covered, and that has helped fuel this rally, and that could continue for longer than you might think, but I think the bigger short covering rally isn't set to start until later this month, or even next....  

As I tweeted out just ahead of yesterday's close, I think there's a good chance that the $VIX remains contained, and after reviewing the charts again this morning, I'm even more convinced of that. 

Inexperienced, and impatient traders, always want to know when something is going to happen, but timing is far more difficult to predict than direction. 

The Crypto Crash 

While most traders are narrowly focused on tech, or Crypto, or some meme stock; I'm looking for a sector rotation, few are expecting. I wish I had seen the crypto crash coming, but I have no way to short that trade anyhow. I actually tried to pull the trigger on some crypto yesterday, but I figure there's plenty of time.... and this morning we're seeing it getting clobbered again. 

That may account for some of the weakness we were seeing yesterday, as contagion spreads to other markets, as margin calls hit the crypto space. 

Remember, not too long ago, when Cramer warned folks not to own crypto? 

Think he wasn't tipped off to this bloodbath ahead of time?  



Tuesday, November 8, 2022

Market Update 11/8/2022 - Something is wrong with this market! $VIX #Bitcoin #NatGas #BloodMoon #Cop27

 Something is wrong with this market 

I'm talking about the broader market: I really noticed it last week, when I tweeted -

But I first noticed how the $VIX has been continually hammered.... most recently back below the 50 week moving average, a couple weeks ago. That's another level to watch! 

In yesterday's update, I gave out some $VIX levels to watch, which I really don't like to do, because it takes several chart views to even attempt to time the $VIX, and I don't plan to update the $VIX again - any time soon. 

I do believe that, "the powers that be", are using the low $VIX to load up on bearish Options bets, ahead of November Options expiration - less than 2 weeks away. That's more than enough time to wrap up the correction, I've been predicting. 

But which market is going to correct? The market is still very much bifurcated. 

We still see money hiding in so called safety trades, even when the $VIX comes down. 

The Dumb money used to hide in the tech sector, now it's hiding in the energy sector. It's not hard to imagine how this ends.

A couple things I'm watching on the Energy charts

1. New 8 year highs on several indices, as I pointed out - on Twitter - yesterday 

2. This short term view of the $XOP - should be pretty self explanatory to experienced traders

a. The top of the pattern. b. The stop hunt at 158. c. The next stop hunt around th 152 level. 

I expected to see a bearish engulfing candle yesterday, after the doji reversal candle, but didn't get it. 


Speaking of the dumb money.... 

Natural Gas 

Remember when I was bearish NatGas? I'm sure you do... because it wasn't too long ago, when it was trading at $10, and I was predicting $5.

Well speaking of the dumb money, we're supposed to believe that retail investors piled into Natural Gas on yet another, "Monday Morning Surprise", just because cold weather is being predicted in November? Duh!

What's funny is NatGas was up over 11% at one point, only to see the gap fade trade finally kick in in the afternoon. 

Huge swing trade for who ever engineered it; or even if you were charting it, and trading it in real time! Up 11%, before rolling over and giving back 7% 

I'm not giving away any free NatGas targets, but I can tell you the 22.2 level on the $UNG is the top of the range 

$UNG 1 min view 

Getting back to the broader market 

This morning we see futures up. They're actually about UNCH (unchanged), but technically green. 

I find this important, because there's no other reason for futures to be held up, unless it's being  manipulated, ahead of the election results, or could it be that they are holding the market up as the international globalists attend the COP27 Climate Summit?  

‘A Reason to Act Faster’: World Leaders Meet on Climate Amid Other Crises nytimes

Stronger Together For Implementation? Smells like fascism to me. 

A blood moon passed this morning: 

Is this going to mark some change?? 

I'm a big believer in signs, so I think it will mark a change in direction, or turning point. 

You have a lot of Hedge Fund managers, who seek out astrologists, in order to advise them on their trades.... 

I can't say I believe in Astrology, but many of the folks who predict things are also psychics, and I can't entirely dismiss it, out of hand. Plus, if you have enough people believing the same thing, this can trigger a form of mass hysteria.    

Top google search result for an explanation for what this blood moon may mean, although I'm sure there are plenty of other interpretations...  

Full Blood Moon Total Lunar Eclipse in Taurus Is Bringing Radical Transformation

From the NYPost

Another way to read the predictions contained within... is to realize that both these writers are giving the reader, exactly what they're itching ears want to hear. 

The only other weirdness I'm seeing this morning 

Bitcoin is down 5%, while US market futures trade flat? This is highly unusual! 

That's all I got today, but if your interested in more technical (type) analysis, you can check out yesterday's update. 

Market Update 11/7/2022 - Did The Market Get It Wrong?