This morning, a little after 4AM: I was watching CNBC World Wide Exchange (WWE) - on the DVR - as I normally do - and I caught wind of some bad news in the works.
I usually only watch the teaser/ intro... just to see what (5) headlines they're pushing, but this morning something compelled me to watch for nearly a full 5 minutes... and it didn't take long for Senior Markets Correspondent Dominic Chu to let the cat out of the bag!
Paraphrasing: I heard him report something to the effect that, "some investors are looking for a bigger downturn, than we've already seen"?
As I Alerted This Morning
See market futures no longer "soaring"? Looks like another manufactured #SHTF moment is just around the corner, just in time for the holidays. #ES1$SPX
I can't imagine what they have up there sleeve in the way of manufactured bad news, which will no doubt be used to take markets down again, but this is their MO, and the charts agree.
Whatever they have planned, just remember the images on the screen are probably only an illusion, designed to steal your money; From the flashing red banners, and (red) flashing tickers, to the made up headlines. It's mind control.
Today I plan to touch on the $VIX again, and the Crypto crash, but first allow me to rant on the stupid election coverage!
This morning, I was watching - several different networks - coverage of the election results, and it seems to me that Bloomberg is by far, the most incapable of writing an honest headline. They can't just report that the Republicans won back the house in a landslide, because they mustn't use the words, "republicans", and "win", in the same sentence, or they probably risk being fired.
Between their nonstop politically bias coverage of everything, from the election, to climate, and even Elon Musk, the entire western media has become a joke.
"Some races are still too close to call", but the idea that we can't even tabulate a vote at lightning speed, in 2022, should be the sad headline, and how do we even know that there is election integrity, when the power structure continues to call people "election deniers"? Who do you think is behind that message? See:
As an independent, I'm not celebrating this morning, because we didn't see a wholesale rejection of the entire power structure. I could give many examples of how the sheep went out and handed power back to the same people who have enslaved them, over the past several decades, and especially the past 2 and a half years, during the covid lock-downs. I imagine these must be the same idiots, racing to the next stoplight, with a mask on their face!
As far as I'm concerned, nobody won, as the same people remain in power.
What Does The Market Think About The Election Results?
The market reaction is negative, because the market likes out of control spending, more than anything else, and even though there are few fiscal conservative left in congress, they will not be sending out any more free checks, at least not for a while....
Some folks claim that, "the market likes gridlock", but the market prefers open boarders, which fuel cheap labor, and everything else that's good for profits. This is in part why they had to run Donald Trump out of DC, so the 2 party system could get back to business as usual.
So really, not much has changed, but we may see a little less spending on ridiculous nonsense, and that's going to help cool the run away inflation we've seen over the past couple years.
Looking at the Technicals:
Yesterday, I stated that I believe that,"the powers that be", are using the low $VIX to load up on bearish Options bets, ahead of November Options expiration", and I still believe that, because I've seen this story play out a hundred times before. VIX sells off, or the market continues to rally, while the higher $VIX is ignored, and than all of a sudden, BOOM!
Did you see the market reverse yesterday, on a dime, exactly where I said it would?
In case you missed that, go back and see where I told you the $VIX was about to break out.
Could I be wrong? Sure, we're only a few weeks away from the Thanksgiving holiday, and I believe we're already seeing short positions being covered, and that has helped fuel this rally, and that could continue for longer than you might think, but I think the bigger short covering rally isn't set to start until later this month, or even next....
As I tweeted out just ahead of yesterday's close, I think there's a good chance that the $VIX remains contained, and after reviewing the charts again this morning, I'm even more convinced of that.
Inexperienced, and impatient traders, always want to know when something is going to happen, but timing is far more difficult to predict than direction.
The Crypto Crash
While most traders are narrowly focused on tech, or Crypto, or some meme stock; I'm looking for a sector rotation, few are expecting. I wish I had seen the crypto crash coming, but I have no way to short that trade anyhow. I actually tried to pull the trigger on some crypto yesterday, but I figure there's plenty of time.... and this morning we're seeing it getting clobbered again.
That may account for some of the weakness we were seeing yesterday, as contagion spreads to other markets, as margin calls hit the crypto space.
Remember, not too long ago, when Cramer warned folks not to own crypto?
Think he wasn't tipped off to this bloodbath ahead of time?
As I eluded to in yesterday's update, the powers that be have been manipulating the DOW, and in hindsight, this explains:
1. Why Apple WASN'T SOLD with the rest of the tech sector, even though last weeks earnings weren't that great; because it's a DOW component!
2. Also explains why $CAT - gaped way up, only to partially fill another gap that was left behind back in June. An obvious pre-planned hedgefund target.
Be sure to check out the action on $MMM, which I mentioned only a week, or so, ago!
Fast forward to today's CNBC World Wide Exchange Headline
"Dow locks in the biggest 1 month gain in 50 years"
I suspected this was just another fake headline, CNBC is running, in order to try to sell CNBC Pro subscriptions, but a headline like this could also be used to help our counterfeit commander in chief, and the fascists who masquerade as our duly elected government. After all the midterms (election) is only 1 week away!
"Look, your 401k just had the best month in 50 years! What inflation..? "
Did the DOW really have it's best month in 50 years?
I kind of figured this was a BS headline, before I even started doing my own due diligence, and sure enough I was right.
It's easy enough to document that they're lying... without going back 50 years.
Pulling up a 3 year monthly candlestick view of the DOW
1. April, 2020: The Dow stages a 3600 point (or 17.5%) gain.
In today's world that would equate to a 5000 point rally, which would have the DOW trading around 33500 - 33550 - a new all time high.
2. Oct. 2022: Dow Stages a 3040 point rally, which only amounts to 10.3% gain.
Any way you slice it, last months rally wasn't historic.
Speaking of the DOW
In hindsight - the dow was driven just above the 200 day moving average, on Friday, and predictably, it held that level yesterday. That's the level to watch!
Energy
Energy held up, even into yesterday's headline, that the government is looking at putting a windfall tax on energy producers - many sources.
In hindsight, I believe Energy only continues to retest the recent highs, in order so that CNBC Pro can also declare victory on that front - and I have another blog in the works documenting how the racketeers have been working overtime to pump energy - BUT ALSO, so that the powers that be, can continue to load up on energy PUTS, ahead of the big dump.
When is the big dump?
Short term, energy continues to trend higher, in what I believe is an ending diagonal triangle, and that can continue to play out today. But if this is correct, that means we're nearing the end of the road for energy stocks.
$IYE Energy - 5 min. chart view -
This should look like capitulation for the retail energy shorts, so maybe it goes even higher, and Bloomberg is already reporting that Oil can go to $100... .
See how the powers that be use the financial MSM to accomplish their objectives?
As far as the rest of the market:
It seem as though a fed pivot is already being priced in, so we could see a sell the news even on Wednesdays FOMC announcement. The fed at this point may even call the market's bluff, and talk hawkish.
How bad could that be for the market?
That crash I was talking about last week is still firmly on the table!
Without giving away anymore free targets I can show you what that might look like on the $SPLV chart.
$SPLV - Low volatility $SPX - looks like the worst case would be a powerful wave C, of Primary wave C, and that certainly would qualify as a crash. Could give back all the gains of Oct., in only 2. or 3 days.
The fed meeting starts today. Maybe we see a relief rally, on the news, squeeze out the remaining retail short sellers, but we also have Thanksgiving coming, and I would expect to see some profit taking ahead of the long holiday.
