Friday, November 29, 2019

Market Update 11/29/2019 - Black Friday

Funny: in a blog last week I called Black Friday, "Good Friday", and I'm still meaning to correct that mistake.  

 CNBC was seen - Wed. - trying to sell the idea that the busiest shopping day of the year - Good Friday - "doesn't matter...."? Then the host talks about how he's going to go on line Cyber Monday, and run up his credit card, as Cramer tries to convince companies that unless they, "invest in technology", they will be left by the wayside. Is it any wonder tech continues to retest the highs, when investors are sold this bill of goods every day?

Dumb Money: I think the rise of the FREE TRADING platform has also drawn in a lot of retail bulls, now that you can open an account with no minimum, and free commissions. See: Thousands of Americans Are Signing Up to Trade Stocks for Free. Here's What to Do Instead - money.com

   

Dow Tech $DJUSTC - I've been struggling to find the pattern on this chart for a while, because there is no bullish pattern, yet this index continues to break higher. Looks like it's been pumped over the top of the upper pattern line in order to squeeze the shorts out. Of course this is being reporting as a bullish breakout, and of course the retail investor doesn't know any better. I also most the folks who read this blog, don't know what a running wave B is either, but I see a downside - wave C target - of just below 1500, at the lower end of the broadening range.


Is this the top?

I think there's a good chance we saw the top on Friday, and I put out some alerts, but it could hold up for a little while. Watch for the $VIX target I mentioned in Wednesday's blog to be sold, before it breaks out. Watch the DOW 28k level, since it's continued to hold for 2 days.

If buying starts accelerating to the upside, which I think is unlikely, then we'll have to regroup.

$SPY took out my upside target on Wed.

$SPX 10 min chart looks very toppy. This morning support is being bought at the 3144 level. Looks like a broadening top pattern - seen in black, and wave 5 doesn't normally test the top of the channel - seen in blue. Could this be a bullish 5 wave move? Sure, and it may also may only be wave "3" in that broadening pattern, as seen below, on chart #2.     

$SPX #2 - See the lower end of the broadening pattern just above 3100 support. That's the level to watch.


Longer term support is DOW 27,200 @ the 50 day.

I've decided not to cover stocks in the public charts area. You can watch my twitter for free stock picks, but I just don't have time to follow up on everything I put out there. 

That's about it. Today is only a half day of trading, so don't expect much.

Catch you next week,
AA


Wednesday, November 27, 2019

Market Update 11/27/2019 - Rigged Market Continues to Hold Up in Futures Trading

 Funny, how the market can only rally to a new recent highs, on light holiday volume, but we've seen this story before. A lot of short sellers take off early, because the charts become unreliable, but it's important to update your charts continually. Even if it's only a couple hours a day, you mustn't become complacent.

For instance we saw a washout on the st #VIX yesterday, and now you know exactly where fear is going to return. Doesn't matter if that's today, or next week, you need that breakout target (above 11.75)  in order to confirm the reversal, and you can bet the algos are already being loaded.... In the same way, $VIX resistance is going to tell you precisely where risk where the next risk-on trade is. It's so simple, but the $VIX can continue to be hammered down, as the powers that be, take profits. It would be unusual to see the $VIX break out on light holiday volume, but you never know.  
    
$VIX - 1 min chart tweeted out yesterday @3XTraders. 


$SPX - The 1 min. chart has become unreliable, so it has to go, and I'm afraid a 15 min chart isn't going to be of much use, for much longer.   

$SPY could touch 315. Looks the likely target.


$COMPQ - looks like it's trading into a broadening top.


We saw financials reverse a few days ago, ahead of the Deutsche Bank news. Not seeing new highs there. See: Deutsche Bank sells $50 billion in assets to Goldman Sachs amid overhaul: source - Reuters 

$GLD - Saw this little rally in Gold coming, yesterday, and this is where investors typically like to hide when the #SHTF. That's a tell, especially if that rally continues.  Gold is like the Alt $VIX, and I suspect something is about to spook bond traders, or currency markets. 




Who knew the Canadian Rail Workers went on strike? I never heard it reported, but I don't read the Wall Street Journal. Of course the Fake Financial News didn't waste any time reporting the good news, yesterday. The funny thing is the $TSX hardly even pulled back... https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-11-26/canada-rail-strike-ends-as-cn-rail-union-reach-tentative-deal

I'm out of time, and have a lot of charts to update, and stop hunts to track down.

Follow me on twitter for the latest up to the minute analysis @3XTraders 

Have a Happy Thanksgiving,
AA













Tuesday, November 26, 2019

Market Update 11/26/2019 - Reviewing Yesterday's 1 Day Rally in Biotech, Australia, E*trade $ETFC

Trading remains pretty active, considering many traders are already on vacation, but the powers that be are hell bent on hold the market up, going into the end of the year.

Yesterday: Of course, I saw the setup for yesterday's rally, on Friday (see yesterday's update), as well as the rally in $SOX (with a 1720 target ), but this was no normal rally.

The manipulators raised the bid at the open, and continued to throw everything they had at it, and Mutual Fund Monday - buy orders - helped lift the market, going into the close.  It was engineered, and I suspect the "Merger Monday", story was designed to help squeeze any remaining retail short sellers out at the top.

Since I have such a good handle on this market, and these moves are so weak, and boring, I find myself watching more financial fake news than usual, as irritating as it is.

Financial Fake News Update:
 1. "Stocks make new all time highs". This is supposed to boost consumer spending, going into the holidays, but it's also good for EOY bonuses. Gotta keep the money flowing!   

2. I caught 5 minutes of Mad Money, and James Cramer made a big deal of "all 3 major indices closing at new highs". I suppose that means, mission accomplished.  

3. One of the ass-hats on Fast Money, called this a "runaway bull market". Proof these people don't have a clue.

4. FOX Business shows, "market futures", up 100+ (133 - 177) points - after the close - when they were actually red. I suppose this may have something to do with the fact that the regular engineers are on vacation, but this network is unreliable as ever, always pumping the "Trump Rally", while they attempt to downplay any bad news.

5. Bloomberg: The avoided reporting the bad news on their cable network, but this morning they were quick to report the fake news, "The Australian Banks claim, they don't need QE". See:  Australian Banks Are Crashing Down to Earth - bloomberg
The World's Most Profitable Banks Leave Australian Lenders Behind
 Not to mention Australia's, Immigration, energy (inflation), real estate, and climate, problems. 

$SPX ended the day 6 handles above where it was trading 6 day's ago. The 1 min chart now resembles an upturned triangle pattern, and if that's correct, then it can retest resistance, next week. I see 2 days of consolidation coming, and the market closes early, Good Friday. That would set up for a Cyber Monday Rally, but also see the $NYSE chart below!        



Biotech also lead, yesterday's rally, but it's been trading in a sideways range for the past 4 years. Nothing to get excite about there.  

$NBI - I saw this Powerful wave C rally coming back in Oct:

 $NBI: Longer term - Looks like a Primary wave (4), or A of 4, in a larger correction. It's been trading sideways in a triangle pattern, and these normally take forever to complete. Give it another year, or 2....  



The $RUT ended up 2%, and if the bulls weren't excited about that, it's Emerging markets... but I only had to adjust the top of the pattern on my chart, slightly, and these are only retests of the previous highs. A big nothing burger. 

 I thought this market could hold up into Cyber Tuesday, but I'm not sure now. The bulls have already over-played their hand, and the $VIX short interest is extraordinary.    

The #NYSE has traded into what looks like a short term topping pattern, but I suppose it could rally off a pullback target, and hold up for a few more days. 


 I've added the global DOW chart to the public charts area, and it'll be interesting to see if the US, can decouple from the rest of the world, and for how long.... 


Still looking for a little rally in $GLD here.


That's about it. I don't have a clue which sector they plan to pump next, but I kind of like E*Trade here. I'll add this chart to the public charts area, and wait for the breakout....



Take Care, and have a Happy Thanksgiving,
 AA












Monday, November 25, 2019

Market Update 11/25/2019 - Merger Monday - and more evidence of Insider Trading

Not much to update today, as trading grinds to a halt, going into the Thanksgiving holiday. I plan backup my files, and maybe do some home remodeling.

Friday, was slow, after the $VIX was slammed down below support at the open, so I tweeted out some charts; everything from updates on the 1 min chart, to a possible DOW 20k target - in 2020 - if the powers that be are planning to trash the market going into next years debates. Anything to hurt Trump's chances....

$VIX - out #1 fear indicator. Hammered below res. @ 12.75. I don't usually publish $VIX targets, but sometimes I will, and it's not a trade, it's a fear indicator, and a tell, as far as the manipulation that's occurring.   



$SPX: Market futures up as expected.

Friday's bullish 1 min chart - for what it's worth. I'm not sure this trend continues, but it could....



"Market trading at all time highs"; headlines - designed to continue to the consumer debt bubble -  continue.

Merger Monday: Evidence of Insider Trading in Schwab, Ameritrade, Tiffany; all these names have rallied ahead of today's buyouts, just as Walgreens did. 

$TIF - you can clearly see where the short sellers were squeezed out ahead of the buyout news.

Here's some interesting news: 
 Looks like the ripples in the Repo market are do to banks reducing risk ahead of another stress test.


I called out a gold miner short on Friday, but I'm seeing gold only pull back, so that trade is probably not going to work, especially since nobody wants to get short ahead of a holiday.

$GLD - Not really selling off. Looks more like a little pullback. I'll be updating the $GLD chart located in the public charts area, to match this one.

We could still see sell orders ahead of Thursday, but as long as the $VIX continues to be hammed, the market can just hold up into Cyber Monday, as planned.

That's about it for today.
I'll be charting the open in real time as usual.
Take Care, AA








Friday, November 22, 2019

Market Update 11/22 Holiday Trading

Charting a bunch of sectors this morning, trying to sniff out our next volatile trade.

$SPX looks like it's going to hold the 3100 level, going into holiday shopping, so they can continue to inflate the consumer credit bubble. This economy is build on debt, debt, and more debt. At this rate, the national debt can easily reach 70 trillion in the next few years, and that debt isn't going to be passed down to anyone's  grandchildren. That's a fairy tale. Instead watch for a reset, and a new digital currency.      

$SPX - 1 min chart added to the public charts area yesterday afternoon: Found this bearish a-b-c pattern going into yesterday's close. Looks like another short squeeze Friday. Maybe it even breaks out to a new high, but I doubt it.

Financials - trade into a parallel channel: I've removed the $BKX (zombie banking index) - from the public charts area - but plan to replace it with this crazy looking DOW financials chart. This pattern scares me, because it's not a bullish channel. It could be part of a broadening top pattern, but I'm not finding one. I suspect that the entire rally off the 2018 low, is a bearish primary wave (B), and if that's the case then we should see a powerful wave C take back all those gains. You can see it's already reversed, and tested my thin blue line. I think the only thing holding it up is light trading volume. Like I said, a week or 2 ago, financials should lead.... 


 $BKX - I do see a broadening pattern on this chart, and wave E is a panic wave, but we could see this hold up into the end of the year, and crash in the spring.

 Not sure it can retest these highs, but it set's up for a nice Santa Clause rally into the end of the year, anyhow.

$XLF - a lot of idiots trade this ETF, and I can show you exactly where they're going to stop out. Also looks like a broadening top, which is never good.



Yesterday we saw Oil ($USO) gap up above the 200 day moving average, and break out to a 2 month high, squeezing the retail short sellers out, ahead of the holiday, which is basically from now until next Tuesday. And this is why I always warn people not to sell a dull market.  If you bought that break out, at yesterday's open, you're a monster trader. Congratulations~

Charting oil is a lot of work, and too much of a distraction, when trying to time the broader market, and charting several other sectors, while suffering from a bad case of insomnia, so I had removed the Oil, and energy charts - from the public charts area. This doesn't look like a sustainable rally anyhow, unless $BRENT can breakout.
$BRENT - up against serious resistance


Gold miners is another difficult trade, and gold even more-so, but things are bound to be pretty slow next week, and I'm looking for some volatility, somewhere. 
We're seeing the $GDM sell-off at resistance. Gold is sitting right on the stop-hunt, on the long term chart, and this is usually not a good time of year to own gold.

Warning: The 3X gold miner ETF's are among the most volatile funds of all. 30% daily moves are not uncommon. Go go, "all in". on these, ever.       

$NUGT - Using this chart as a contrarian indicator, and a hypothetical breakout above 29 as a stop on $DUST - That's right, we're going to use the 3X miner bull, as a contrarian chart.
$NUGT -


$DUST - The dust chart isn't much help. It's been trading in a range for months.


The Leveraged funds actually track the $GDX, which just broke below the 50 day, if you want to use that as a stop. That's up to you.


$SOX should get a nice dead cat bounce right here - off my pink line, but I would've hold it overnight:

I see some bullish stock picks coming up, like a gap full on $TXN, and I'll be adding more.
It looks like it's already off the to races.

Gotta run. Have a great weekend!
AA

 

Thursday, November 21, 2019

Market Update 11/21/2019 - Reviewing Wednesdays Awesome Oil/Energy Trade - Market Reversal


Taking a victory lap 


Reviewing Wednesdays Awesome Oil/Energy Trade


$Oil - broke out above the 50 day moving average - as anticipated Tuesday afternoon - and it ran all the way back to the 200 day. That amounted to a 10% move on the leveraged oil Bull, before noon.  It was about that time, I alerted folks to take profits, and Oil fell back below the 200 day. So, that trade is off the table, unless, or until it can break out again. I think it needs to consolidate.

What's also nice is I warned one of my (paying) people, who informed me he was 3X short oil Tuesday afternoon, that "I would not be short oil the next morning." Hopefully, he took my advice.   

Of course, it didn't take long to be trolled by some degenerate gambler on Twitter. I suppose he was short oil, yesterday, and being a sore LOSER.  

Market Reversal 
 
We saw the market manipulators caught swimming naked in the pool, when the $VIX finally broke out, on more bad China news. It was a beautiful thing, to watch play out on the chart, and I just happened to be charting it in real time. If you were watching, and refreshing your browser, you saw where support broke, and the $VIX alerts. Super easy trade.

Of course they rushed in and drove the $VIX down, trying to stuff the genie back in the bottle.

This morning, we saw good China news, trigger machine buying, and futures driven into the green, because that's supposed to bring buyers back. It's a feel good move, because they can, but you don't see the $DAX in the green. Germans don't gamble their retirement money in the stock market. "Investing", is an American phenomenon.  

We got 2 days of normal trading left, before volume falls off a cliff, and then the powers that be can take the market wherever they like. Maybe it bounces, back or maybe it's walked down, but holiday trading is usually pretty unpredictable, and nobody wants to get.  

Trading won't return to normal, until after Cyber Tuesday, when traders return.

$SPX - I may put this 1 min chart in the public charts area, if I get bored, but I'm thinking about taking next week off. 


Here's something interesting: 

 
The @Chartress at Bloomberg came out, after the market rolled over, and pointed to the "SKEW", (which is a fear gauge), a her point was that fear has been building, regardless of the lower $VIX, as seen on the SKEW. 

I think this helps proves my point, that the $VIX is being manipulated, and it's not Bloomberg doing it. It's the other network! That would make sense, since Bloomberg reports real news, unlike CNBC. I already knew money was tightening up, as evidenced by the $TED spread, and the $VIX was out of order, but the SKEW is new to me. Adding this one to my arsenal.  


Looks like the $VIX has some catching up to do!

 Seeing futures UNCH now, and I don't believe they can put the $VIX back in the bottle.
I think we're going a little lower, before rallying back on light volume next week, but what I think doesn't matter much. Trust the charts. 

I'll be charting the open as usual. Link to the Public Charts

Take, care
 AA

P.S. I see a nice trade in BitCoin coming, if you trade BC, or BC futures.
Drop me a line...
















  

  

 

Wednesday, November 20, 2019

Market Update 11/20/2019 - Possible Rotation Into Energy

Twitter feed is working again:

 Just as I get back into the swing of things, with the public charts area, and blogging daily updates, which, after the past couple months is finally running pretty smoothly, I get my twitter working again. Turns out they're console doesn't accept phone numbers from discount carriers, and they don't mention this in their, "help menu". Twitter support is non existent, so it took a couple months to figure out how to get access to my account again.

You can follow me on twitter, if you like, and I've added a button to the side menu. Twitter is mostly entertainment for me; a place to blow off steam, troll some fools, show-boat, expose "conspiracy theory's", and kill time when the market trades aimlessly, which is most the time. 

I'll provide a market update there, once in a while, because it's easier than updating the public charts area, or blogging an update. If my internet goes down, I might post an update there, from my mobile, but you probably won't be missing much, if you don't follow. 

I use twitter for personal, and business, so you may be annoyed at times, and this is especially true, if you're offended by politically incorrect free speech. My thought is.... If you like what I have to say, then nobody is forcing you to listen.

Warning: I'm pretty liberal with the (twitter) block button, so don't pester me, and especially in the morning. I'm happy to answer questions, but I'm not there to pump your position, or hold your hand.


The Energy Trade: 

Warning: Unless you're an experienced commodities trader, I won't be playing with oil, but gamblers gonna gamble :)

To review: We caught the last bounce in energy, or part of it, at least, and then I called the top, and told you I expected it to consolidate lower over the next few weeks, and here we are. 

I mentioned the energy trade in yesterday's blog, and then we just happened to see a nice washout in $WTI Crude, which closed below the 50 moving average for the first time in a month.  A gap back up above the 50 day, could set off a short covering rally going into next week.

I've provided a couple charts in the public charts area, and you'll have to trade those on the fly.

Maybe I'm a little early. Maybe we see another shakeout...

$USO  - If the chart - that's in the public charts area breaks, then look for support around 10.40 (easy to remember. I may switch out the chart that I added to the public charts area, with this 5 min view, depending on how it goes. $USO is also testing the 50 day ma, and that's a level to watch - 11.61.


$SPX:  See the #1 chart in the Public charts area.

Futures already bounced off the lower channel on that 10 min chart view. We like 2 normal days of trading left, before volume drops off a cliff next week, so I'm not expecting traders to put on a bunch of short positions.  We could see a run for the exits, but I think the market remains rigged until after Cyber-Monday, for all the reasons I mentioned in yesterday's blog.

ECB risk assessment came out this morning, and we already saw REITS sold ahead of it.  Now we're seeing a little snap-back rally. I have some great REIT charts, but I don't provide all my best charts in the public charts area. The best charts are worth every donation you make to this website, so if that's what you're interested in, add a note with your donation, or PM me in twitter. You get a lot for $30.

$REITS - look like a major top. See the little sell-off at my red line? This is how bear markets begin, very slowly at first. Nobody suspects a bear market.... investors never see it coming. That's my job...!   

See: Excessive risk-taking and falling bank profitability cloud euro zone’s growth, ECB says - CNBC

I remain very bearish, but it's unlikely we're going to see much selling, going into Thanksgiving. Still, keep your guard up, especially when the $VIX back-fills the gap, around the 12 level.

$SPX 60 min chart - nearly took out my 3130 target, yesterday



That's all I got.

Take Care,
AA 


























 

Tuesday, November 19, 2019

Market Update 11/19/2019 - Bears are calling this a "blow off top"



"Blow Off Top"

As I type this mornings update, I'm having some miner technical difficulties, with the format jumping around. Hopefully, I can get this thing finished ahead of the opening bell. Update: Had to reboot, after I was unable to load an image, updated FireFox. Everything running fine now, after wasting 15 minutes...

I've been suffering from insomnia lately, and it's not that I'm all that worried about the market, but I wake up with a dull back ache.... Thinking, maybe my mattress is too hard.  

So yesterday, I'm taking one of my legendary afternoon naps , and I hear this irritating voice coming from my television set.



...and I hear her say, "the bears are calling this a "blow-off top...". 

That's funny, because I was calling this a possible "overshoot", yesterday, and many technicians must be seeing something similar, but I wouldn't call it a "blow-off top".


Blow-off Top?

1. This doesn't even remotely look like a blow off top

2. The momentum is too slow for a blow off top.

$NYSE chart (candlesticks) - I consider the top in 2018  a blow-off top, because the upside momentum was strong, as it continued to overshoot, until the rug was pulled. That was a classic blow-off top, in my book.




Sure it looks toppy here, on certain chart views, but I'm not married to any one chart view, and this is in part, what differentiates my winning technique, from everybody else's. Even the above chart is different than the one in my public charts area. 

The gap target:

See the Gap target on the above chart? I'd say, that's probably Government Sachs, or the racketeers at J.P. Morgan;  I'd say it's more than just 1 hedge fund, maybe a collaborative effort...; working on "getting back to even"? James Cramer used to work for $GS didn't he?

 Today's trade:   Calling today's continuing breakout was super-easy!  Once I woke up my afternoon nap, I had like 30 min. to chart the close, and that's all it took to determine this rally was going to continue into today, and possibly into next week. See the notes on the #1 chart (below), located in the Public Charts Area. See all the charts.


$SPX - continues to break out

Here's how I did it:
  1. Market continues to be stair-stepped up. The trend is up
  2. $VIX closed below resistance. manipulation continues 
  3. Dow broke out, and closed above support.  Let's see if I can find that chart
$DOW - I believe this is the chart view I was watching at the close.



So I was obviously early calling the top on this rally, but you gotta figure you're going to be early at least once, or twice, and then you're probably going to get it wrong again, and especially given the fact that the market is being rigged higher in order to help holiday (retail) sales. Market us = retail sales up. This the plan. It's not like we're trading a free market any more; one in which the market gets overly bullish, and then corrects. Right now it's prime time for manipulation, and news won't matter, until the powers that be give the signal to trash trash the market again. It's totally rigged, like everything else.

Of course certain sectors can start leading the way down, and maybe already are... Energy continues to build a base, so we could see that sector lead a rally, as other sectors continue to hold up. More on that in another blog.

The $RUT isn't exactly tanking, so we may see a retest of the highs there.
See the $IYM chart, in the public charts area, since the $RUT is no longer available at  stockscharts.com.

A glitch in the matrix:

Not only is the $RUT missing, but most of the data was mysteriously missing from the very short term $SPX charts, at stockcharts.com, yesterday. Very odd 


Opening bell ringing.

Later, AA






Monday, November 18, 2019

Market Wrap-up Sat. 11/16/2019 - Look ahead 11/18 - Adding Stocks

I made a couple errors in Friday's Update, which are now corrected. 1. I Forgot to add the $SOX chart... and I suggest you go back and review that. 2. I got the Date for Dec. OPEX wrong. It doesn't come until the 20th, 5 days before Christmas. That's significant! Watch....  

Wrapping up the week:

 Short Squeeze Friday - we got our explosive little (.07%) short covering rally, on news that Pelosi is considering taking up the USMCA trade deal. Maybe it took this long for the Congressional accountants to figure out how best the congress can profit, insider trading that deal, or maybe they've already been buying into this news for months? See: How the (corrupt) Congress Quietly Overhauled Its Insider-Trading Law - NPR

Of course the financial fake news would never report on Trump's historic USMCA trade deal. Instead they continue focus on Chicken, and Soybean purchases, promised in in Part 1, of in US/China trade negotiations. Media, and the market, also ignored Barr meeting with Trump, on National security threats posed by the National Security Threat, posed by certain Chinese technology companies.  

Here's something weird: CNBC's Michial Santoli, comes on after Friday's close, and makes an excuse for why the market continued to pop higher, going into the close, as if it wasn't supposed to? What is that about? Very shady dealings going on over there, I think.    

Look, stocks typically rally on a Friday, and on OPEX, so there's no mystery.... When I retire, I may just employ this strategy: Buy ahead of Friday, and sell ahead of Technical Tuesday, and spend most my time fishing, rather than charting, and blogging all the time. 

Regardless of the news: 

Long term:  

After reviewing my long term chart views, over the weekend, I can tell you; most US indices have finally broken out to new highs, minus the $NYSE. Not sure why that is, but I think the Wilshire 5000 is a better gauge of the broader market? Also see the revised $NYSE chart in the public charts area.  

$WLSH - this is what the new highs look like on the Wilshire. I know most money managers are worried about missing out on the next move higher, and maybe that believe alone can hold the market up for several more weeks/months, but the downside risk here is huge! On Friday, I said, "I don't see a crash coming", but there is a significant chance for a massive correction, any time now. Not an all out collapse, but a back-test of 2011 support.  Of course the MSM will call this a crash, and use Trump as a scapegoat, and there's nothing the PTB would rather do than destroy Trumps chances of re-election, but after a 10 year run, you should expect a normal correction, and a 61.8% retrace of the previous run is....    

Intermediate term: 


The $VIX is trading at dangerous levels. I suggest you have your sell windows open during normal trading hours.  


Still looking for a powerful wave C to give back all of the rally from August, and then some. If I'm right on that, then we should get a nice Santa Rally.  See the Dec OPEX date.


$NDX - Big Tech: See the stop-hunt, and the trap door I've placed on the DCS located in the public charts area. Few see what I'm seeing here, but there are obvious support levels, and then there are not so obvious ones. It was my former Trading Warrior Brother Dale Pinkert - and I only say
"former....", because the last time he had me on his show, I told him the market would probably hold up a couple more years, and that's not what the perma-bears want to hear. He probably won't have me back, even though I was right. So anyhow, My good buddy Dale over at Forex Analytix F.A.C.E. - is the one who first turned me on to the term "stophunt". As a seasoned Commodities trader, he knows markets overshoot all the time, so he recognized what I was doing on certain charts, even though I didn't have a name for it at the time. 



If you're unfamiliar with the term stophunt, you can think of it as the opposite of broken support, when markets overshoot to the downside. That would be a bear stop, or your buy target, once the market snaps back, or craws back above that support line. In the same way, when a market overshoots to the upside - above resistance - that resistance line becomes your stophunt.  


Typically when traders see stocks break out to new highs, they'll cover their shorts, or add to their bullish positions, and look for higher targets, and then when support breaks, they're left holding the bag. Don't be a bag holder.


Short term - I've returned the 15 min NASDAQ chart to the public charts area, but I would be watching the stophunts on the longer term charts, and have your sell window open. A 15 chart can break in 5 minutes, even at these low $VIX levels.   


I've run over on time, and see the $VIX up 8.5%. Not much selling, yet...


I've started adding some stock charts to the public charts area, and there will be plenty more to follow. More on that in the next update. 


Take Care,
AA








Friday, November 15, 2019

Maket Update 11/15/2019 - "So, You're Telling Me There's A Chance...?"

 I had a really interesting blog planned: I was going to document the fact that every time I blog something, it seems like breaking news follows. For example: Yesterday - 1. "Nancy Pelosi says a USMCA trade deal breakthrough could be ‘imminent’ CNBC 2. Day before - Donald Trump Jr comes on FOX News and uses my exact words - "Career Government Bureaucrats" -  to describe the 2 witnesses in the congressional democrats mock Impeachment show trial. I don't don't have a link for that, but I watched it live.  
I could give you countless examples of these strange - ESP like - occurrences... they seem to happen the most when I'm stressed, or short on sleep. There's something to it, that can't be easily explained, but I'll save it for the book.   

Yesterday's breakout

$SPX - broke out about the time I shut the computer down, and laid down for a much needed 2 hour nap. Anyone with a short term chart saw it coming, and it was confirmed when the $VIX broke support.

$SPX one min. chart - clear breakout. You could see where support held on the 60 min chart, located in the public charts area, and I did put out a $VIX alert.  

 I would return the short term chart to the public charts area, but as far as I can tell, there's not much interest in day trading my charts, and I have bigger fish to fry than catching another 10 handle on the SPX.

We also saw the $TSX break out to a new high, and back-test support, so good things must be happening behind the scenes.

$DAX up = US equities up, Short Squeeze Friday, the usual BS, although I'm right again.

DOW continues to retest the highs, as predicted again yesterday... could make 15 more "all time highs", as the headlines continue to draw more dumb money in.   

 So You're Telling Me There's A Chance 


 Yeah, I suppose there's a chance that the market explodes higher in what looks like, it could be, a wave 3 (see the alt: channel in black). That's a 30k+ target btw. Nice round number. Breaks out and holds the top of the channel, which, in hindsight, is exactly what the *$SOX did, but on a much larger scale, back in 2016.

*$SOX - See the breakout above the top of the channel, in 2016. Then it held the top of the channel going into the end of 2018. Of course this looks like the end of the road for $SOX, and tech with it, and I'm already seeing many DOW components overshooting targets on a 20 year chart view.

For Example:

$WMT See the bearish weekly candle? See it overshoot the upper trend line? That scares me.

I know what the financial engineers have in mind, and I can find a bullish channel, that corresponds to a bullish wave 3, on the 2 hour chart DOW chart, but I can't see how they pull it off.

I can see several Dow components - $XOM, McDonald's,Walgreens, Merck, and even Nike - leading the DOW but too many have already run too far, and too fast, maybe that has to do with the plunge protection team coming in where they really didn't need to... Support at the 2018 was low was already pretty obvious. Then the The Fed capitulates to the crybaby's on Wall Street, and comes in an lowers interest rates. I don't trust the rigged market, or the lying financial news networks. 

I'm not really seeing a crash here, but probably a much bigger correction than most people are expecting.   

Still I think we'll see a nice bounce off the target (s) I laid out yesterday, and then we'll see what comes next. It's always funny when traders ask me, "what's your time line". The market trades on it's own timeline. AI controls the market, and drives options market, months in advance. I don't think humans are cleaver enough to pull off a day like this, with so many stocks trading at all time highs, on an Options expiration, 2 weeks before the Thanks Giving Holiday. It's an amazing thing to see, and must be exciting for the bulls, but there will be profit taking ahead of the Holidays, I think.

December OPEX is Dec. 20, 5 days before Christmas, so mark that down on your calendar! That might be the set up for a nice Santa Claus Rally. 

Take Care, and have a great weekend,
AA





Thursday, November 14, 2019

Casino Stock Market Update 11/14/2019 - $APPL Apple, Disney $DIS, Penoton $PTON

 I was up at 2 AM, "haunting the house", as I call it (insomnia), and decided to check on futures, and do some charting. This is what winning requires; a little obsessive, a little compulsive, and a little lost sleep once in a while. But it take more hard work, to beat the casino stock market, and I'm going to give away a couple key ingredients... in today's blog. 

Headlines: 1. The Fed easy money forever. 2. Brexit is shelved - "let them eat cake". 3. NAFTA continues (USMCA shelved).  4. China trade continues, as financial markets open up. 5. No recession in sight.  6. Earnings season - "not as bad as feared" - NABAF (as engineered by James Cramer). 7. And finally - The Bond Market reversal - exactly where I called it back in August.     

Of course every time the market turns red, the financial fake news points to "China Trade worries", but that's all BS, and this rally has more to do with driving the shorts out, going into the holidays, something I've never heard reported. We've seen this story before: Squeeze the shorts, draw in the retail investor, and then take profits, and go Christmas/ Hanukkah shopping. 

Red Flags:    

"Germany Dodges Recession", is this mornings headline - yet the market  - including Germany - is down. Good news being sold is indicative of a bear market; "Good News is Bad News"; this is a bearish signal.

Irrational Exuberance & Contrarian Indicators: 

1. Of course everyone, except me - it seems - remains bullish, and the idiots at FOX Business were seeing running celebratory fireworks (graphics) as "the DOW hit it's 100th new high, since Trump was elected"?  Not sure if that's even true, and I don't have time to count candles. but it's a meaningless statistic, other than the fact that the stupid meter is pinned in the red. A day earlier, the DOW closed absolutely UNCH, and you should've seen them rooting for another record close. The host even called it a "horse race", and she's exactly right! This is gambling. Greed is what moves markets. Not earnings, not the The Fed, although they encourage this bad behavior.    

FOX's Maria Bartaromo called this "uncharted territory, a couple days ago, and that's a funny expression, but nothing could be further from the truth.

2. Money pouring into bearish Options, as tech bubble 2.0, cash burn, continues. I'm not going to reveal my $CPC Put/Call Ratio chart, but trust me....   Futures are already being sold in a big way, after reaching an extreme! If you're familiar with sentiment indicators, you know what I'm talking about.

Yesterday's Market Action: 

Looking at the DOW

 The DOW tends to lag other indices, and the fact that we're seeing that one make new highs, tells me, we're close to a major top, if not already there.

Yesterday, we saw the DOW almost bump up against the upper channel line - on the chart I have in the Public Charts area - but different time lines, can line up a little differently - even when using a DCS chart, the timeline (6 mo/1 yr/3 yr) alters the view.


For example: Here's a DCS chart I drew up this morning. Maybe this retests the highs a couple more times, but I think there's a good chance we see a little profit taking, ahead of Thanksgiving. Also note the rising 50 day ma.


Same Chart:  ....27,000 - And now you can see the pre-engineered target. It's so obvious, once you understand how markets are manipulated.
Target on the $SPX looks like 3018 btw, with the 50 day ma, having already risen to the 3000 level.
  

The tech bubble 2.0: ...built on Streaming services, and tech unicorns lol 

Stocks to watch:

$AAPL - looks like it already overshot slightly. Calls pay tomorrow OPEX - rigged


$DIS - This is the first chart I pulled up this morning, so there's nothing "uncharted" about this territory. Call Options pay tomorrow - OPEX Friday. 


$PTON Peloton - We even saw a little short squeeze in this tech unicorn. Some people see a new highs, others see selling opportunities, and it looks like the bulls have already taken profits on this one.  At least, they should thank the retail shorts for buying it at a new recent high!

 Most important thing to watch is the $VIX, and I gave you the breakout target yesterday. Not sure that's going to happen on a little pullback, going into a holiday, but I think we're about to find out.   

Opening bell rings in 5 min.
Gotta run, 
AA