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Monday, January 29, 2024

What's Wrong With This Market? A Picture Says 1000 Words!

 You can probably already guess from the title of this blog that I'm none too pleased with the recent market action, and that may also help explain why I haven't blogged in over 2 weeks!

 What's Wrong With This Market?

1. Volatility being endlessly sold

The broader market has become pretty dull, as the $VIX continues to be hammered lower. Lower the $VIX the slower the market moves. This explains why we're not setting any records. 

I remember CNBC talking about how market corrections are a thing of the past, and it looks like they may have finally achieved that goal, but booms are always followed by busts. 

2. The broader market is being driven by a few FAANG stocks - as usual. The mag 7 is just another cutsie name for it. Sure, we saw a few sector rotations along the way, but they were short lived.   

Of course the lame stream media couldn't wait to report - after Friday's closing bell - that small caps rallied 2%, and that brings us to #3. 

3. The Lamestream financial media continually lies  

I watched the host on Bloomberg falsely imply that this means that the market rally has been broad based, which couldn't be further from the truth. 

 A Picture Says 1000 Words 

$IWM Russell 2000 ETF 15 min. chart - Obviously not leading a rally, but rather consolidating sideways. More proof that the lame stream media will lie to investors in order to confuse them. 


Speaking of the lame stream media lying, in order to try to make things sound better than they are: 

This morning Bloomberg is seen reporting that the market has rallied more days than it's fallen, over the past week. I call this grasping at straws.

4. Financials also not leading 

You may recall; I pointed out not too long ago, that the banks were not on as sound a footing as we were being led to believe, and all you have to do is look at some key bank stocks...

 $SPX overweight - Bank of America $BAC. It recently got a dead cat bounce off the 50 day moving average, but a picture says 1000 words.   


And if you think I'm cherry-picking bank stocks, in order to prove a point, just look at where $BANK was trading - relative to the $SPX - back at 2021 (bubble) highs.

You can't have a strong economy without a sound financial footing

4. Monday mornings surprises   

Here's something that threw me off last week, and that's the taking down of Natural Gas, below support. Call this a nasty Monday morning surprise. 

As it turns out it was reported last week, that Joe Biden had illegally halted LNG exports, in order to placate his environmental activist fanbase. You can't make this stuff up. 

The Media Coverage of Biden’s Natural Gas Decision Is Ridiculous newrepublic.com

Is it any wonder that the lame stream media is more focused on Trump being fined for something he probably didn't even do, rather than focusing on the imposter in the White House? 

And where's the coverage of Kamala? But I digress. 

As it turns out, Biden's move is a token gesture to fool his base, and delaying the completion of a large, new, LNG plant is only going to negatively impact greenhouse emissions. 

The Media Coverage of Biden’s Natural Gas Decision Is Ridiculous newrepublic.com


There had been a few good sector trades to be had, including last week's nasty correction in semiconductors, and the recent rally in energy, but sadly most traders are focused on the eternally rigged, and ever increasingly boring $SPX.  

Until next time; good luck, 

AA  

      


 




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Sunday, January 14, 2024

Best Trade of the week

Best Trade of the week was not found trading the $SPX 

Bitcoin 

I also found a decent trade selling financials ahead of the kickoff of earnings season, on Friday.

 

Which trades have not worked? 

Nearly every single trade that's been shamelessly hyped by the lame stream media, and the Fast Money - boiler room - crew @ CNBC 

Just goes to show; there's always a trade somewhere, if you know where to look, and tune out the fake news. 

This week is another shortened trading week, thanks to the woke, MLK holiday. We saw a little more short covering ahead of it, and I think that's probably why they created the holiday in the first place; so that the controllers would have an easier time driving financial markets at the start of each new year. 

On a more serious note:

 Bill NH HB1700: Prohibiting the intentional release of polluting emissions, including cloud seeding, weather modification, excessive electromagnetic radio frequency, and microwave radiation and making penalties for violation of such prohibition, has been introduced in New Hampshire. 



Of course this bill is unlikely to stop the ongoing Geoengineering operations 


Again, I'm going to suggest that you protect yourself, and your family, from the chemical fallout from this process, and especially if you live in an area that is constantly bombarded from the Geoengineering ops overhead. 

The nanoparticulate fallout is highly toxic, and so small that it crosses the blood brain barrier. 

I can't say that filtering the air is going to be 100% effective, but it is definitely better than nothing, and offers some peace of mind.  

I run a Winix HEPA Air Purifier [linked] in my living space 24/7, and am thinking about picking up a second unit - that doesn't require replacement filters - for the office.  

Kenmore PM2010 Air Purifiers with H13 True HEPA Filter, Covers Up to 1200 Sq.Foot

The newest technology in Air filtration, doesn't require replacement filters:  

Nuwave Whole House Air Purifiers, Oxypure Smart Air Purifier with 5 Stage Tower Structure Air Filter, Air Quality & Odor Sensors, Sleep Mode for Bedroom, Remove 99.99% of Dust, Smoke, Pollen, Allergen





Take care, AA 


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Tuesday, January 9, 2024

Trying to make sense of yesterday's massive rally

 The number one reason stocks rallied on Monday, is the topic I touched on yesterday (linked below): 

Pump N Dump Markets Continue into 2024 - Happy New Year!


Another reason we saw stocks rally yesterday, is that it was the 1st working Monday of the new year, and if fund managers want to keep their jobs, they have to put money to work. 

I can't complain, because I had a feeling they would storm right back into beaten up tech stocks... 
We also saw another killer trade in Natural Gas as it rallied 4% off the lows of the day 

Nearly 400 impressions on the pullback target I tweeted out first thing yesterday morning.  
That means Natural Gas has become the new meme trade, and is too hot to touch. 

Funny thing is that as the global economy - from Germany to China - continues to contract, markets continue to trade higher, just as they did in 2007, and that leads me to believe that markets may be at a tipping point. 

Germany is the thing to watch as the lame stream media chooses to ignore the developing situation there. Makes me wonder; "what else are they choosing not to report"? 

$DAX (Germany) - The short term chart looks like a classic suckers rally. Perhaps this is only the beginning in wave A (a-b-c), but I'm not taking any chances. 


France - Same thing. Weak action after making new all time highs. 

$GDOW Global Dow Same thing 

Take Care, 

AA 



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Monday, January 8, 2024

Pump N Dump Markets Continue into 2024 - Happy New Year!

Pump N Dump Markets Continue 

Didn't I tell you they didn't want to chase this rally into the new year, and here we are only a week later, and tech has supposedly had the worst opening week in 20 years?

They drove stocks up on light holiday volume, only to dump them on the first trading day of 2024.   

Of course the month isn't over, and the $VIX remains super low, so this is more of a shakeout, and a sector rotation, than a meaningful correction.

The selling has been limited to a few sectors - small caps, and tech - so the 2024 market looks exactly like the 2023 market.   

Funny, Fast Money alerted to this "magnificent rotation" coming in 2023, and all it took was someone at Barclays to downgrade Apple, and that was their green light to sell tech. 

Who/ what is Barclays? .... I really never gave it much thought, but then I found this, "British universal bank" has been since before the foundation of the United States! Makes sense that they would provide the catalyst... since the rigging of global financial markets begins in the UK. 

Barclays is a British multinational universal bank, headquartered in London, England. Barclays operates as two divisions, Barclays UK and Barclays International, supported by a service company, Barclays Execution Services.

Barclays traces its origins to the goldsmith banking business established in the City of London in 1690.[4] James Barclay became a partner in the business in 1736. In 1896, twelve banks in London and the English provinces, including Goslings Bank, Backhouse's Bank and Gurney, Peckover and Company, united as a joint-stock bank under the name Barclays and Co. Over the following decades, Barclays expanded to become a nationwide bank. In 1967 source wikipedia.org

I have 2 Barclays charts - neither of which I can share - and I can tell you that the financial system is not as sound as "the powers that be" claim... 

And instead of the lame stream media focusing on this downgrade, and the person or persons behind it, and the lack of transparency when it comes to who is selling (short) the market, they choose to report nonsense, such as the fed minutes. 

Happy New Year! 

I can't complain, because I knew the market would correct soon enough, and especially when you see momentum dry up, as we did at the end of 2023. 



This has been an extraordinary start to the new year, for those of us who had a good idea of what to expect in 2024!

Hopefully you learned something in 2023, and are having as prosperous a New Year, as I am. 

AA

 


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Monday, January 1, 2024

Good things coming in 2024?

I've already written quite a bit on 2023 (in review), and everything that has led up to this moment in time, so you should definitely review all the recent updates, for information related to the current market environment; including Friday's update EOY Window Dressing Continues into 2024  

Looking ahead to 2024   

In order to get a good handle on what to expect in 2024 we need to look back to the Covid liquidity bubble of 2021-22, and the length of time it takes for a bubble to unwind.  

Excess money printing - in the form of stimulus and QE - was no doubt hatched as a way to ensure that the ponzi economy would quickly recover once Donald Trump, and Boris Johnson, were out of the way, but the globalist banksters overplayed their hand, and now we're all paying the price in the form of higher prices on most everything, from housing to bitcoin. 

Sure, the rate at which inflation is rising - as measured by the fed - has fallen but prices remain near all time highs, and eventually prices always return to the mean.   

From a technical standpoint when a market doubles in only 2 years - as the $SPX did between 2020, and the end of 2021 - it's going to take a good long time from consolidation to complete, and I believe we're not even halfway there. 

We didn't even come close to seeing capitulation, in the pullback of 2022. In fact the bottom formed at lower $VIX numbers.   

An Important Discovery 

I think one of the greatest discoveries I had in 2023, was the $SPX 5000 (futures) target... 

 I would have never found that SPX 5000 target, unless I had first discovered that market manipulation starts with US market futures.  

 There is no other explanation for the pump n dump (overshoot) rally of 2020 - 2021, than that 5000 (futures) target, followed by profit taking in 2022 (for tax reasons), and there's no other reason for the market to be pumped to the same bubble highs in January 2024, than to "ring the register", for a second time. 

  Good things coming in 2024?

I'm afraid not. 

Sure, in the short term, we could see the $SPX pumped to the 5000 level, and since the bulls are fixated on round number targets, and Joe Sixpack is fixated on the Dow, we could even see Dow 39 - 40k, and especially if Donald Trump is prevented from running a second time!

$INDU - Looks like the Dow could be headed to 39,000, before year end.


Today the market has been driven back into bubble territory, because they're still hell bent on making Joe Biden look good, ahead of election 2024, but they could just as easily crash it again, if Trump were somehow able to win a second term. 

The establishment likes more government spending, and less regulation, as we saw under Clinton, Obama, and Biden. Doesn't matter if they call themselves (republican or Democrat); fiscal conservatism is dead. 

$INDU - Democrats & Republicans working together = markets higher. 


In the meantime

The smart money is selling, and if you don't believe me, then just look at what Warren Buffet is doing. 

Warren Buffett Selling $28.7 Billion in Stock Rings Alarm Bell Over Economy newsweek.com

I got a few things wrong in 2023: 

1. The extent of the banking collapse. I caught a falling knife there.   

2. I also got bitcoin wrong, as I had no idea that this would be used as a cash cow for the controllers. Especially going into the end of the year, when it became clear that they had only driven Bitcoin up, in order to raise some much needed cash.

I did get the sector rotation out of energy, oil, and Natural Gas right, and that is something nobody else was predicting. In fact the lame stream media purposely brought certain people on TV in order to tell you that tech couldn't lead another bull market.

Just goes to show whatever is working, tends to continue to work for longer than you would expect. 

Thankfully I don't believe anything I see on TV, and I was able to make up for any losses from earlier in the year, by sticking with my energy short. Just goes to show there's always a bear market somewhere.   

Speaking of the energy trade

That sector rotation, in and out of energy, helped  fuel the tech rally, but it also did something else. It prevented capitulation, because energy was used as a safe hiding place.

In a true market correction there is no safe hiding place. 

Take care, AA 


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