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Tuesday, February 28, 2023

Market Update Technical Tuesday 2/28/22 - Stocks, Natural Gas, Germany, Tesla, German $DAX, $SPX

It didn't take long to figure out that yesterday's rally, wasn't going anywhere, and I used that as an opportunity to reduce my exposure to this lousy market. 

There's a tech conference going on in Barcelona, so that may have something to do with the lack of market direction, but I specifically saw Germany leading yesterday's rally, in US stocks, and immediately identified that as another suckers rally. 

 Technically. yesterday's rally in Europe, looks like a bounce out of the lower end of the down-turned wedge (seen on the chart above). 

$DAX - A closer look shows Germany consolidating in more of a sideways triangle pattern, for the past 3 weeks, and this is a great example of the directionless market we're dealing with. 

This morning, I decided to check the news and see if I could find a catalyst for yesterday's gap up - and found some fake news coming out of CNBC - where they claim that Europe is higher (6 hours ago), following yesterday's rally in the US.

 This is a great example of why we don't trust CNBC's reporting:

1. European Stocks aren't higher this morning. 

2. Europe led the rally in US equities yesterday; not the other way around. In fact the US seldom leads global markets anymore, and this is why smart investors are looking to invest outside the US. 

Looks like CNBC has since taken that story - from 6 hours ago - down.

Seems like the folks working behind the scenes  CNBC just throws a lot of spaghetti at the wall, to see what sticks, and makes stories up as they go along, the same way Bloomberg does. 

With all the technical experts they have on the financial networks, you would think they would at least report that the trend is down, or sideways, but I guess that kind of reporting, doesn't help sell subscriptions. 

Bullish investors want bullish stories. That's what keeps them interested. 

The only bullish news coming out of Germany yesterday, is that Tesla increased it's production, ahead of schedule, and that might help explain why the financial fake news doesn't want to report it. 


Automotive News Europe 

Tesla's German plant hits 4,000 cars a week ahead of schedule 

Sunday, February 26, 2023

Weekly Wrap - A Weak, Ending to the Week, for Stocks

 Weak ending to the week

Looks like the short sellers - of the $VIX - lost again on Friday (weekly Options Expiration), with the NASDAQ finally being taken down below the 50 week moving average, and the $SPX closing below the sacred, 4000 level. 

I could show you exactly how they manipulated the $VIX higher, by pulling the rug out on the $SVXY, but I'm going tok eep that chart close to my chest.

More weakness 

Healthcare, which looked pretty good a week ago, was taken down below the 200 day moving average, while many tech stocks have hardly even pulled back from their recent highs?  

This worries me. Is Medicare bankrupt, or is the US Government about to default? 

Analysis: Looming U.S. default risk prompts investors to cut some debt exposure reuters 

That's right; the market is pricing in a default, months ahead of time! 

Good Trading Environment 

While most traders are no doubt getting shaken out on both sides of the trade, I've actually been doing quite well, and all 3 of my trading account hit all time highs last week! I don't say this to brag, but I'm genuinely excited. I won't even reveal which trades I was in last week, but I can tell you not to believe everything I tweet. 

The next big trade 

Thankfully, I'm seeing a nice setup for another sector trade. I even alerted to it in this weeks news letter, and made a 1 time special offer to reveal the trade to anyone who is interested, for $100, and I'm even willing to drop the price to $99, if that sounds better to you. 

And as an added bonus I'll even throw in another sector trade, and some $VIX charts, in order to ensure I keep you on the right side of history, as we trade into the end of Q1. 

Like I said in this weeks News Letter: You can't afford, not to take me up on this offer, and if you don't make a nice profit over the next 30 days, I'll even refund your money! 

Just use the PayPal link in the side menu. 

Golden opportunities like this just don't come along very often, and for all we know, this may be the best trade of the year. Take it or leave it, but act quickly, because you don't want to miss the boat! 

Friday, February 24, 2023

Market Update 2/24/2023 - Chart Reveal - The Easiest Call of the Year

 Picking up from where we left off in yesterday's Market Update 

The Easiest Call of the year

Your homework was to find a couple, simple, parallel, channel patterns; 1 on the $SPX, and the other on the $VIX: 

Today I'm going to reveal those patterns: 

1. $SPX - I mentioned that this one should be easy to find", and that's because all you had to do, was check the public charts area, and lo and behold; A bullish parallel channel, in blue (obviously), and the next logical target would be the top of the same channel, around the 4500 - 4550 level. Simple  

$SPX (60 min. view) same thing. Bullish parallel channel (seen in black) 

2. a. $VIX = The second chart pattern I was alluding to, can be found on the 60 min $VIX.  Also a bullish channel, but yesterday's pullback, at the upper end of the channel, was st (market) bullish. 

To be fair, in yesterday's update I referred to a bearish channel on the $VIX, but you could've found that on the next chart.  

2. b. $VIX - (DCS view) Of course there are plenty of ways to look at a chart, and many different timelines to choose from, but that comes with the territory. 

Hopefully you were able to find the easiest call of the year, with little effort, but you should have already had these chart views on your radar, at the end of the trading day on Tuesday, if you want to stay one step ahead of the market.

Yesterday's Market Action  

The above chart views, plus the fact that the $SPX was testing the 50 day moving average, was enough to fuel a nice little rally, on Thursday, but now what?

Well, today is another weekly options expiration date, and after yesterdays return of the short sellers of the $VIX, we see the $SPX struggling to even keep it's head above the 4000 level. 

I must admit I like the way the market rallied off the 50 day, painting a bullish hammer on the chart, yet in Yesterday's update I  mentioned that I was still uncertain about a couple things, and here they are:

Uncertainties Remain 

1. The wave Count. It's not at all clear to me, where we are in the wave count, after only a 1 day rally.  

2. If the latest little pullback is indeed bullish, which sector (s) is going to lead the next rally? 

These are big questions! 

I suggest still playing it a little cautious. I'm diversified with a couple defensive sectors, and even hedged with some shorts. 

Until Europe corrects then I'm going to remain cautious  

In related news:

Maybe hedging with a materials sector short might be a good idea. 

Side note: Most the hedge fund managers, and pundits, you see on the financial news networks, don't even have a chart to their name, and even the ones who claim to be able to chart, don't have a clue. 

Good luck, AA   


Thursday, February 23, 2023

Market Update Thursday, 2/23/2023 - The Easiest Call of the Year

The Easiest call of the year 

This may only be late Feb. but this was the easiest call of the year, so far: 

Market pulled back to the lower end of a bullish channel. 

$VIX rallied to the top of a bearish channel. 

Super easy for anyone with an ounce of charting skills to find. 

You're homework is to find those (channel) targets, and to come up with the next target. 

Return for tomorrow's update, to compare notes 

Here's a clue: If you know where to look, I've already given you half the answer, to the above (2 part) question. 

This is your chance to learn how to chart like a pro, so get after it! 

I suggest using and I receive no compensation for recommending their platform 

Wednesday, February 22, 2023

Market Sells Off Right On Schedule!

 Market Sells Off Right On Schedule!

Looks like I nailed that call for a pullback, and just in time for another Monday Morning Surprise, which actually occurred on Technical Tuesday - due to the Presidents Day holiday - which I also alerted to in my latest News Letter

And just when the foolish traders at CBNC Fast Money said the market couldn't sell-off. Great contrarians they all are!  

Saturday, February 18, 2023

A Tale of Volmageddon - Revisiting Volmageddon 1.0 - Preparing for Volmageddon 2.0 - Danger Signs Ahead?

 A Tale of Volmageddon 

Revisiting Volmageddon 1.0 - Preparing for Vomageddon 2.0

Volmageddon; a blending of the words volatility and Armageddon, refers to the extraordinary U.S. stock market activity that took place on February 5, 2018.

The tale of Volmageddon is really the story about what happened to the short-sellers of volatility on February 5, 2018

continued... @

Revisiting Volmageddon 1.0 

I remember the Volmageddon incident of 2018, very well, and after following the market closely - for most of my adult life - I recognize when the VIX is - once again - being routinely shorted, by the marrilly, complacent, manipulators. More about the setup for Volmageddon 2.0 in a moment. 

 My FXStreet Interview Dated April 10th, 2018 

If you recall, before anyone had labelled the great $VIX short squeeze of 2018, "Volmageddon", it was a hot topic of conversation, in my first interview with Dale Pinkard, at the 


Whether you're new to this (trading), or a seasoned veteran, I suggest you tune into Dale's show, and I promise you'll learn a thing or 2..! It's even FREE, and I receive no kick back for the recommendation. I tuned in recently, and I was reminded to think outside the box... (a story for another day), and we all need to be reminded sometimes!

This is the interview in which Dale, and I discuss the great $VIX short squeeze of 2018 - aka Volmageddon 1.0. 

Cue The Video

I've cued up the Video (below)  - to 11:30 -, so you can listen to my explanation for Volmageddon  2018, and view what I was seeing in the charts, for yourself. 

The Segment is only a few minutes long: Be sure to see what happened to the $SVXY (leveraged $VIX bear (short)  ETF) - because today, we're seeing the same situation develop again, in the same fund - the segment ends around 14:20 (after we both have a good laugh). 

At the time of the interview I was under the impression that the SVXY was going to be retired, but I was probably only repeating some fake news, that I was hearing at the time.  

In hindsight, nobody should be surprised that this fund still exist, since it's instrumental in helping the powers that be, drive the $VIX lower. Even the Fed bragged about lower volatility - with a wink and a nod - after they took control of the market in 2008. Think the Federal Reserve isn't in on it (selling volatility)? I'll leave that for you to decide!

Volmageddon 2.0?

$SVXY - this fund still exists, and continues to be used in order to help manipulate the $VIX, and I don't believe the criminal cartel -who controls Wall Street - is finished with their $VIX manipulation scheme. Not by a long shot! 

As I alerted to on Friday.... 

I can tell you this; if the $VIX continues to break higher, the bulls are in trouble. #OPEX #Friday

— Veteran Market Timer (@3Xtraders) February 17, 2023

And it was at that point the $VIX was driven lower - again no coincidence! No more a coincidence than the $VIX being shorted at the magic number - 20 - on Thursday. 

Today's $SVXY 

I have a target for the $VIX, but you won't find it on the above monthly $SVXY view - above  

Sure the pink line is a stophunt, but even if that breaks, we aren't going to see the same kind of unwind we saw in 2018.  

If we ever get to the point where we see Volmageddon 2.0, I'm sure it will catch most traders/investors off guard, just as the last one did. 

 Still Seeing A Lot Of Complacency In This Market 

Friday - the idiots on CNBC Fast Money were seen once again throwing caution to the wind, talking about how the market doesn't want to sell off, while ignoring the fact that the only thing holding it up, may have been, February, Options, Expiration (OPEX)!

I'll keep sounding the alarm, especially after seeing the $VIX action of the past few days. It has been nothing short of a wild ride. 

 Recently I even went so far as to advise investors/ traders to "reduce your risk" my Feb 7th update, because something just doesn't smell right, and the market doesn't react normally.

 I've been warning of a sharp correction, for some time now, and even more so as Wall Street becomes utterly complacent...
... yet this story continues to play out as it did even as the warning - of Volmageddon 2.0 - was sounded last week - by JPM - as I pointed out in Friday's blog - 

Some folks are calling for the $VIX to hit 50, before May? I don't see that as even a remote possibility.  

Good luck, 

Friday, February 17, 2023

Market Update 2/17/23 - Friday, Feb. 17th, 2023 - OPEX (Options Expiration)

 Looks like there's a high probability that the market bulls are going to be robbed again, as most Options are bound to expire worthless, but that could all change; if the $VIX is once again hammered back down, as we have been seeing on a routine basis, over the past several weeks.

I'll be watching $VIX 20, SPX 4100, $NDX 12k (levels), as well as the 50 day moving average on the Dow, going into next week, but today it looks like James Bullard is going to remain short! lol 

Seriously, this looks scripted, by the banksters, and helped by the - bought and paid for - financial fake news. This is the new normal. 

Thursday, February 16, 2023

Market Update 2/16/23 - This Is Looking Pretty Bearish - Looking At The $VIX

 As I've said before, the longer the market takes to form a top, the worse the correction is going to be, and we're already 5 months into this rally. Seems, more than just, "a little", long in the tooth 

But I finally think we could see a healthy correction, shortly, based on what I'm seeing on the $VIX, and even the French $CAC - nearly testing the all time highs, this morning!  

 The $VIX has continued to sell off, since I called the market bottom, back in Oct., but at what point is the $VIX getting oversold, and market participants being overly complacent. Right here, I think!  

The whole point of the $VIX is to offer an easy way to buy protection, but over the past few years we've seen the $VIX shorted, as a way to keep volatility down. I can't tell you exactly how that works, but I can see it in the charts. 

Many Pro Traders are questioning the $VIX at these levels, and the amount of selling we're seeing on the $VIX, on a daily basis, as well as the daily snap-back rallies in the already overbought equities market. One theory is that daily Options trading is to blame? I don't know if that's true, but we've seen the $VIX shorts get burned before.

2018 $SVXY (VIX Bear) $VIX short sellers slaughtered 


$VIX - once again it's hammered out of the gate! 

Yesterday afternoon, I alerted to what looks like a bottoming (triangle) pattern on the st $VIX 

$VIX - trades into a bullish setup on the DCS chart 

I was thinking we could see a Black Monday, and we could... overseas, but Monday is a trading holiday in the US. 

Of course, we could see a Black Friday OPEX tomorrow, and since the market bulls haven't paid their protection money - in the form of Put Options - that would fit, but bloody OPEX dates are very rare. 

99% of the time, you see the market hold up on Options expiration, just as we did, before the so called "Covid Crash". 

Take Care, AA   

Tuesday, February 14, 2023

Market Update ahead of the CPI Data. A Train Derailment, A UFO, and an Attempted Cover-up by the MSM

For some reason I thought the CPI (Consumer Price Index) data release, was going to coincide with this OPEX Friday, but that number actually comes out around 8:30AM EST, "with economists polled by The Wall Street Journal expecting the consumer-price index to show inflation rose 0.4% last month as the year-over-year rate slowed to 6.2%."

I suppose we could see the short sellers return - to sell the news - but other than that,  I don't see today's CPI number providing much of a catalyst for markets. Powell already told markets, inflation is waning....  

Today's Trade 

Today is Valentines Day, and this is usually a quite trading day, as I pointed out last week. 

The $VIX - went exactly where I said it would in this weeks News Letter


Lately, I've been watching Oil like a hawk, and even went back and added some charts to yesterday's extensive update. 

Related story

Look what I found NOT being reported by the Biden loving, Lame Stream Media! 

I don't usually watch Fox Business, but maybe I should! There's apparently a lot that's not being reported, in order to try to help the Biden administration! 

Only ABC News seems to be accurately reporting on last weeks train derailment/ chemical spill, in Ohio.

There were more toxic chemicals on train that derailed in Ohio than originally reported, data shows

Among the substances were ethylene glycol monobutyl ether and isobutylene.

I guess the rest of the MSM doesn't want to make Pete Buttegieg look any worse than he already does, after the Travel nightmare of 2 weeks ago.

I hope that doesn't hurt his chances for a Presidential run!  

Related: $NSC (Norfolk Southern) Chart 

Looks like it's trading in a dreadfully slow bear market like everything else 

Warren Buffett own that one, if memory serves.   

I suspect the recent balloon/ UFO stories, are  part of an (wag the dog) attempted cover-up, by the mass distraction Lame Stream Media. I can't see any other reason they would be shooting down weather balloons, or other left over flying junk floating around the upper atmosphere.  

Perhaps they think this makes Joe Biden look more "presidential"?

But there's another possible motive for a  MSM (distraction) cover-up! 

Biden Removes the Top Capitol Facilities Official Amid Allegations of Wrongdoing nytimes

Yet, another story NOT being reported! 

Republicans grill ex-Twitter executives over handling of Hunter Biden story theguardian

Not to mention the fact that former intelligence officials and deep state bureaucrats are now seen backpedaling on the disinformation, they used to affect the outcome of the Presidential Election 

Clapper says letter about Russian links to Hunter Biden laptop saga was 'distorted'

The former director of national intelligence for President Barack Obama is blaming Politico for the “distortion” of a letter signed by more than 50 ex-intelligence officials that had baselessly claimed Russia's involvement in the Hunter Biden laptop saga.

You won't hear anything reported about any of this by the rats, at CNBC, or Bloomberg! 

Take Care, AA 

Monday, February 13, 2023

Market Wrap & A Look At The Week Ahead - Energy/ Oil

 Hey, Good morning, Traders! 

As I mentioned in this weeks News Letter, the $VIX finally managed to breakout last week, but looking at this mornings action, I'm not sure that (breakout) continues. 

The Cost of Protection Just Went Up

Traders brace for a blowup as cost of protection for U.S. stocks hits highest level since October

What does this mean for stocks in the near term. Probably means that now that the bulls have paid for Put protection - the broader market can close near all time highs for the month.  

Futures Flat-ish 

I think we could see another little pullback today, but it seems to me, that the most likely outcome this week, is that stocks will continue to hold up - or be held up by the powers that be - on a better than expected CPI number, which just happens to come out on , Feb 17th,. OPEX, Friday, just ahead of another long weekend. 


Since the banksters have been put in charge of perpetually rigging global martkets, one sector to watch is financials (banks). 

Another sector to watch is - 


On Friday we saw investors run for the continued safety of the energy trade, and there's no doubt in my mind this is where the fast money is hiding. 

Stocks to watch

1. $BP Amoco   - goes parabolic - looks like someone wanted to get paid on their weekly options! 

2. $BP (British Petroleum) the other BP - breaks out above $500 - to a lower all time high 

3. $XOM - Exxon - making new all time high

Not sure when the day of reckoning will come to the oil space, but when commodities turn they can turn violently. 


 Carter Worth came out bullish on Oil, on the Friday edition of Fast Money. This is why I believe retail investors - who are foolish enough to pay for a CNBC pro membership - are net long Energy! 

Why else would Carter Worth pump the Oil - and even the Nat Gas - trade? CNBC Pro

If you can actually chart, and want a good laugh; watch his bogus technical analysis on Oil (linked) in the tweet below! 
1. He points to Sept. 2020, as some sort of connecting point, but I can find no relevance to that date; even when charting a NYMEX futures chart 

NYMEX seen below doesn't even remotely line up with Carter Worth's bogus analysis! 

Next I tried the weekly futures chart. 

NYMEX weekly candlesticks 

I'd never paint a lower trend line like that, in the first place 

NYMEX - seeing a lower pattern line, or neckline

Looks very similar to some of my BRENT charts 


Where's Oil going? 

$WTIC West Texas Crude Oil - the actual trend on oil is easy to spot. 

Looks like CNBC is intentionally trying to steer investors wrong  

Also seeing a bearish H&S Pattern on Oil, as I pointed out last week 
BRENT Crude - mature H&S patterns should not be ignored 

What happens if that neckline breaks? I'd be looking for a little washout below the bottom of the range, just below $65. The Dec, 2021 low was 62.43. If that doesn't hold, then I'd be looking at the Fibonacci target around $53 - $50 even?   

Looking ahead 

I think we could see a pullback on low volume, some time around the Passover, and I think that traders who have been pumping certain energy stocks to new all time highs, especially want to enjoy the, "spring harvest festival", by robbing retail investors.   

That's looking out a few more weeks, to around the end of the quarter, but if we happen to see the $VIX continue to breakout, all bets are off the table! 

Take Care, AA  


Friday, February 10, 2023

Market Update Friday 2/10/2023 - Looking At The NASDAQ & S&P

Picking up from where we left off yesterday: where I mentioned the $SPX 4350 target, and I was trying to recall where I had gotten bullish, and what my actual upside target was.... 

This required me to go on a search, through old charts, and blog updates, going back into late 2022, and if you've followed me for any length of time, you know, I create a lot of charts, and it's not always easy finding the chart I'm looking for. I'm not even sure that I'm going to find the chart I'm thinking of, but this - looking back in hindsight - is offering me some new insight, which is always good!

I think half the reason I blog is just to help organize my thoughts, and look at things from 100 different perspective. Like I said last week, it helps keep me on my toes, but I digress!   

Looking At The NASDAQ 

For instance: Here I am calling for a rally on the NASDAQ, back in Dec. - when everyone was still bearish. Have you looked at the NASDAQ lately? 

The above call required a breakout of the bearish channel, the NASDAQ had been trading in, for the entire year, when we all know that trends are not easy things to break! 

In other words, it was a bold call! 

What Breakout? 

Here's the breakout (of the bearish channel), I'm referring to, on another chart view. 

$COMPQ DCS chart - the breakout is undeniable 

I bet this breakout must have really surprised the channel traders, last week! Also notice the increasing buying volume, leading up to that move!  

It's a shame, I can't seem to find the original 60 min. chart of the NASDAQ, but I suspect it got worn out, after it took longer than expected to rally. If you recall, we did get our Santa rally

$COMPQ 60 min view 

Here's a rough recreation, of the above 60 min. view, and now I see, why I must have deleted it. 

The (original) upside target is still valid, but it may take at least another several weeks.... and that leads me back to same question I was left asking yesterday. How do we get to the higher target, and when? 

Now what:  

1. The $VIX continued to breakout yesterday, although I suspect it will be hammered back down, ahead of the weekend. Friday's are always a good time to squeeze some short sellers. 

If you were following along with my twitter feed, you already know I called yesterday's move on the $VIX with 100% accuracy. 

 That coincided with the bullish hammer that was paiting on the 15 min. chart... 


2. What pattern do you see on the above 60 min chart? 

a. If you don't immediately recognize it, then you have some homework to do this weekend! 

b. If you do recognize the chart pattern, then you know what to expect. 

I'm almost out of time, and I never did find that $SPX chart! 

I'll make it easy for you: 

$SPX DCS chart

1. The Trend on the $SPX remains higher, in a bullish channel.

2. Plenty of support, at the 4100 level (assuming the bulls take that back), 4000, 3975, The 50 & 200 day moving averages, and a golden cross.... to boot! 

3. You'll find the 4300 target at the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement target, and the 4350 target, just beyond that.... at my black line. 

5. It could even go higher, if it's going to take out the top of the channel, some time after Feb. OPEX, - which by the way - is only 1 week from today! 

I think I'll be adding the above chart to the public charts area this morning

Oil - held the 50 day moving average, and is up this morning, but I'm setting that trade on the back burner for now. 

Take Care, AA 

Thursday, February 9, 2023

Market Update Thursday 2/9/2023 - $FTSE New All Time High, Bitcoin, $VIX, Oil, Tesla, $BP, $DIS

1. The market continues to focus on squeezing the short sellers on every earnings beat, rather than the longer term. This is the only reason I was looking for Disney to rally, in after hours.  

$DIS makes a slightly higher recent high 

2. Another stock making higher recent highs is Tesla. CNBC Chart Master, Carter Worth, wrong again! 

It's one thing to be wrong, but then, for Fast Money to double down (2 weeks ago), and encourage others to short Testla? Losers  

By the way, I got a $222 target on Tesla, after calling the reversal, back on Jan. 26th.

3. Turns out, I was totally right on the bombing of the Nord Stream Pipeline! 

WASHINGTON — Pulitzer Prize-winning journalist Seymour Hersh has alleged US Navy divers laid bombs that destroyed the Nord Stream 2 natural gas pipeline under the Baltic Sea last September, drawing a denial from the Pentagon Wednesday. 

Will Russia retaliate, now that the truth has come out?  I think there's a good chance of that! 

Looking at my notes: 


- I turned bullish on Oil, a few days ago, but as I tweeted yesterday, I've pivoted on that trade.

 It just seems to have stalled out above the 50 day, rather than rocket higher - which is what I was looking for - so watch for a pullback, followed by another run at the right shoulder target, later in the month, or it could just continue.... now that Oil is trading back above the 50 day ma.  

Speaking of Energy: $BP took out my upside target 

Of course it may continue to overshoot after the momentum we've seen, and that's what markets tend to do... 


The French $CAC has traded nearly back to it's all time highs, in what looks like a big suckers rally. If you can find a way to short that market, or even the entire Eurozone, I would start building a position right here! 

Related story: 

$FTSE - Looks like this, this morning LMAO 


 Also looks like it's also forming a top, and you know what that could mean for tech stocks! 

Bitcoin trades in a sideways range for 3 weeks. 


The market seems extremely complacent to me; especially after yesterday's $VIX breakout above the 20 level, and some index in Japan, is also giving that signal, but I can't seem to find the story... 

$SPX 4300 - 4350 - This is the target I've seen the market makers pointing to recently?

This target isn't at all out of the question, but I'm more interested in how we get there, and what happens afterwards.  

It's been so long, I forgot what my upside target on the $SPX was. 

I'll have to look back a few months, and continue this blog tomorrow! 

Take Care, AA 

Wednesday, February 8, 2023

Market Update Wed. 2/8/23 - Reviewing Yesterday's Wild Roller Coaster Ride in Equities

 Firstly - If you missed yesterday's lengthy update, then be sure to check that out. I covered several topics, including the recent strength in the $USD, the $VIX, China, Oil, and more in Market Update 2/6/2023 - Chinese Weather Balloon Story Is Used To Take Down Chinese Equities. Is Oil Next?

 Reviewing Yesterday's Wild Roller Coaster Ride in Equities 

Yesterday started out rather boring, and I figured markets were probably waiting for Chairman Powell's speech... and sure enough that seems to be what set things off. 

1. Initially the broader market spiked on Powell's comments 

2. Market faded that move - giving back nearly 1% - or may have been short selling...? 

3. Market rallied all the way back to retest the highs of the day, going into the close. 

I welcome the volatility; it sure beats being bored, but what is this market trying to tell us?   

We could argue about what the Chairman powell said, or didn't say, all day long, but one thing is certain: The dow was bought at the 50 day moving average, and more and more I find myself pointing to moving averages, as algorithmic trading programs continue to hijack this market! 


Who trades the Dow Jones? Ignorant Foreign investors, and I suspect also foreign hedge funds, and algorithmic trading programs (off shore perhaps). 

These aren't smart investors buying the Dow. 

This wild move yesterday comes after last weeks FOMC announcement, and speech, by Chairman Powell, triggered record options bets. Is this "a contrarian indicator"? I believe CNBC fi   

Powell’s speech triggers record options bets, topping even the meme stock frenzy cnbc

“A contrary indicator?” 
This points to capitulation, as I've been shouting from the rooftops for over a week now! 

The Oil trade 

This was the obvious winner of the day, and once again the lame stream media is trying to give credit to Chairman Powell, and even Joe Biden! 

And once again, we see a blatantly obvious moving average being tested. 
We also saw Energy stocks leading...



Looks like energy is trading in the sideways range, I pointed to in Oil yesterday. 

$IYE (Energy) looks like it could continue to breakout above the 50 day ma...

The above chart is from my candlestick folder. I was going to upload a much better chart, but I already gave away, a killer trade in oil yesterday. If you're good at charting, you can find the pattern, yourself.   
The Trade 

So, now that we've identified where the biggest gains are being made, all we have to do is rush into the energy sector, right?  

You would think so, but this morning, we're seeing energy down 50 basis points. 

This goes along with what I was saying yesterday, about reducing risk, in an increasingly, unpredictable, and crazy market. 

Take Care, 

P.S. I continue to beat this market, like a rented Mule! If any Hedge Funds are watching; I'm available to work full time/ remote. If you're interested... you can PM me, or contact me on LinkedIn. 

Tuesday, February 7, 2023

Market Update 2/6/2023 - Chinese Weather Balloon Story Is Used To Take Down Chinese Equities. Is Oil Next?

Chinese Weather Balloon Story Is Used to Take Down Chinese Equities

I've only seen 1 person, foolish enough to go on live television, and claim that Friday's sell-off in Chinese equities, had nothing to do with the supposed, "spy balloon", story, and that was none other tha CNBC Fast Money's very own Timothy Seymour.  

In a recent news letter, I predicted that Chinese markets would correct, and after a couple weeks of sideways consolidation, I was finally proven right, but I didn't think it would take a fake Chinese spy balloon story to break the uptrend! 

China is “regretful” that the balloon — which China says is for climate research and has limited self-control — diverted over the US, China’s foreign ministry said... bloomberg (full story)

Is War Hawk Marco Rubio short Chinese equities, or is this neocon just fanning the flames, in preparation for an armed conflict with China? Either way, he appears to have skin in the game.   

Rubio says China purposely sent balloon to show US in ‘decline’ nypost

Here's Señor Rubio pushing the same agenda long before the Chinese, "spy balloon", entered US airspace!

Jan. 31, 2023

Look, it was only a week ago, that I pointed to half a dozen negative China stories being pushed, by the bought and paid for lame stream media, so to see the propaganda machine continue to spin negative Chinese news, is no surprise. I only worry that a time will come when, the lame stream media will cry wolf, and a false flag story, triggers a nuclear war. 

See my Jan. 31st, 2023 update: 

Black Swans & Debt Time Bombs

One thing I forgot to add to the list of negative China stories, was that China could trigger high inflation, now that things are opening up. Jan. 30th, 2023 

The World’s Next Big Inflation Surprise Is Looming In China bloomberg

Enough fake news!  

The Market Action 

Over the past few weeks, we've seen:

  1.  A short squeeze in tech, and meme stocks. 
  2. A continued pullback in Energy, which by the way, is helping take the bite, out of inflation. 
  3. Chinese equities pull back
  4. Gold and precious metals slammed - something I also included in my most recent News Letter, and something I have yet to hear reported by the lame stream media. 
All of the above was pretty predictable except for Thursday's engineered short squeeze in the $NDX  

The Dash For Trash Continues 

 It seems like spring came early this year, as the dash for trash continues to chase the short sellers out of this market. Carvana - for instance - up nearly 400% since the beginning of the year? That's easy money, for whoever engineers these types of things, however most stocks continue to trade in a range.

You usually don't see this - dash for trash - until the spring, which sets up for profit taking, ahead of the summer. 

The $VIX, the $USD, & Bitcoin  (3 things I recently told you to watch) 

 The $VIX remains stagnant, lifeless! Rigged or not, this means that there's little fear in the market. If tensions between the US and China, were real;you would see the smart money, putting protection on, and we don't....    

Lately we have been seeing the $USD pop, and that has hit precious metals hard, but Crypto not so much. Could it be that this had something to do with this recent story?

No evidence global ransomware hack was by state entity, Italy says


  "ROME/LONDON, Feb 6 (Reuters) - Global ransomware activity that targeted thousands of computer servers in Italy and other countries..."

Seems that the $USD continues to be the thing to watch 

$USDU - Bloomberg US Dollar Fund - breaks out 

This morning is Technical Tuesday, and Bloomberg reporters, can hardly contain their enthusiasm over a weaker dollar. They obviously want the $USD to reverse   

Here's a clue, I just found in a google news search, and something that may be worth looking into:

Sterling hits a new one-month low vs dollar, focus on central banks Reuters

The British Pound/Sterling 

I don't have time to pull up the $GPB chart, but watch the 200 day ma 

I started this blog yesterday, but then the plumber showed up, and seeing as he charges $300 per hour, so I had to run.... thankfully he was able to wrap things up quickly - after I had already completed most the work  - and I was able to return to my desk and finish taking profits on a couple trades.   

The Trade 

I think the most likely scenario is that the $VIX continues to be beaten down, through Feb. OPEX, at which point we could see profit taking ahead of the Easter break, and if not, then, it becomes more and more likely that we're going to see a, "Sell in May", scenario.   

Check out the volume on last weeks move, and even the volume, for the entire month of January, and you'll find that it is pretty convincing. Big money was put to work, and that is unlikely to unwind, until the Call options pay. 

Healthcare Stocks 

Didn't I recently tell you that Heath Care was going to probably be a safe place to park your money, over the next couple months? Yes, I did! 

Oak Street Health Stock Soars On $10.5 Billion CVS Takeover Report thestreet

And here's another trade I recently called right! 

The United Arab Emirates 

I'm uncertain if Oil helps lift the UAE. I guess that would make sense, but the trend is unclear.  

$WTIC Texas Crude - I don't think I've ever seen so many downturns triangles repeat like this! Perhaps the deep state has been hammering oil down, to try to hurt Russia?  It's just not natural.... 

Or perhaps Oil just pulled back in what may turn out to be a powerful wave C. If so, then it should blast through all resistance on it's way back to the top of the range.... Of course, you'll also want to see the $USD reverse course, and continue to weaken.   

I think since I'm in such a good mood, and the Saudis seems to be on board, I'm going to add the above chart to the Public Charts Area!  

The trend on a lot of things (including Oil) is unclear, so I'd reduce your risk, and choose your trades carefully. 

I've opted to reallocate to around 60% cash, and waiting for better trading opportunities.

This is a complicated global market, and we're living in extraordinary times 

Take Care, AA