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Friday, June 27, 2025

Sentiment Indicators + Nike $NKE Update, + Banks

This morning I was watching Bloomberg Surveillance, because it comes on after Bloomberg Europe, and as bad as that program is, it's still 10x better than CNBC Europe.  

If you have never had the displeasure of watching CNBC Europe it looks like they spent about $99 on their set, and they can apparently only afford to pay 1 reporter to cover the globe lol  

Track and yield: Nike earnings boost European sportswear stocks CNBC.com

Nike says tariffs could add around $1 billion to its costs this trading year as it looks to reduce its reliance on Chinese production in a bid to offset the impact of President Trump’s trade policy.

 Nike - is up 10% in pre-market as the dash fo' trash continues. 

I got Nike right by the way. It was an easy call. 

 
Watch for a test of the 200 day moving average, right around where it's set to open.  

Sentiment 

I've been wanting to touch on the topic of sentiment for a while now, since we no longer see bullish capitulation in markets. More on that in a minute.     

So, I'm watching the town idiots on Bloomberg (New York), and I see them giggling about something, and so I decided to turn the sound up... and as it turns out what they seem to find so funny is that sentiment has turned from bearish to bullish in only a few weeks/months.  

This in itself would NOT be at all unusual, even in a bear market, and it seems like only yesterday that we were trading face melting rallies in 2008, some of which lasted for 3 months, and that seems to be about where we are in this cycle. 

But why would they find it so funny that sentiment had shifted? I'll tell you why. 

1. It's because these Bloomberg hosts, and the globalists who are working behind the scenes, absolutely hate Trump, and his supporters. They must think MAGA investors are all bullish now, when they know as well as I do, that the final leg of this rally is a bull trap, and the fact that markets are testing new highs during the summer is a big red flag. 

"Volume precedes price..."; as they say  

I don't know how many fleeting summer rallies we need to see go down in flames, before retail learns to stop chasing low volume rallies, but apparently that trend needs to continue....  

2. The Bloomberg Surveillance narrative that sentiment went from one extreme to another is also hogwash.      

 Sentiment indicators never reached extreme levels, back in April. In fact the market didn't even need to form a base... In fact, only 1 week after Liberation Day, markets were off to the races again in a historic short squeeze. 

That doesn't point to bullish capitulation. It points to FOMO (Fear Of Missing Out). It also points to market manipulation - a topic for another day.

The market has only traded back to the same Trump/ Biden era bubble levels, we saw 6 months ago, and the market remains in dire need of a real correction.   

Sentiment indicators agree 

 I know the bots like to point to CNN's new sentiment indicator a lot, but I'll trust my own indicators any day of the week, and I can tell you that the bearishness we saw in April was shallow, and brief, and you didn't see the type of Put buying you would expect to see... 

 In fact we saw far more bearishness when the regional banks began to collapse in 2022. That event caused real fear in markets, yet the radical left wing lame stream media was quick to bury the issue. 

 Today we see CNBC Fast Money pushing the toxic banking sector.  

That's their job, to sell you on the idea that everything is fine.  


  

 Take Care, AA 

 


  



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Thursday, June 26, 2025

Best Trade of The Quarter Better Than Gold or Silver

Back on April 14th when it seemed like everyone, and his brother, was chasing Gold, I called out Platinum trading around the 945 level. 

 

In 2025, platinum has outrun gold and silver with a near 49 percent rally to hit a decade high 

 
What is platinum? goldsecure.com.au  

So far this year, gold has surged close to 29 percent on safe haven buying amid rising geopolitical risks and tariff-related uncertainty, but platinum has posted a 49 percent rise, and is set to pip all precious metals for the month as well as for the quarter.

moneycontrol.com

Since that time Platinum is up over 40 percent

Why is Platinum so special? It's not, and It just goes to show, we're in a liquidity bubble, where excess money continues to find it's way into every market. 

I suspect the sheiks in Dubai are driving everything from Crypto, to platinum, but it could be any whale, or *school of whales, with the help of a little trading software. 

Of course, now you see every Tom, Dick, and Harry, along with a millions bots pointing to the platinum trade

 

 

and that seems like a good place to make an exit.   

 

 Take Care, 

AA  

*A group of whales is commonly called a pod, a school, or a gam. Other terms include herd, mob, and flotilla. - Source AI Duck assist/ whale-world.com Wikipedia      

  

 

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Wednesday, June 25, 2025

The Market No Longer Cares About Facts Iran China EU Germany AI Crypto Markets $VIX chart

 Wow, where to start?! Just when you thought we were headed into the summer doldrums, we get more explosive market action, and I've had the good fortune  of being on the right side of nearly all of it. 

I offered a chart of the small-caps earlier in the week (in the previous blog linked), and all they've done is out-perform, but like I said at the time I have much better trades up my sleeve, and I was "willing to share... for the right price". That offer is off the table.    

 It seems like all I do is blog on one great trading opportunity after the next, and this during the summer - when trading is typically slow.  

That's the good news 

The technicals are working like never before, and today when I hear analysts talk about "valuation" I just have to laugh. The market doesn't care about facts. 

The most obvious case to be made that the market no longer cares about facts is the valuation being placed on Bitcoin, which continues to trade over $100k.   

 There's nothing new under the sun       

 I did a little digging this morning, and I was shocked to find that the Euro was actually created as a digital currency. I guess I had never really thought about it, and I was actually searching for the date it was created, when I stumbled upon this fun fact.

 I find it very interesting that the EURO was created just before the tech bubble imploded. 

 Is the Euro as worthless as Bitcoin? I suspect it is, considering that it has continued to trade in a bear market, ever since just after its creation. 

And here's another fun fact: Who is going to get hurt the worst when the Euro goes belly up?

Germany  

 The idea that the euro favors Germany is politically controversial, but there is some support for it. investopedia 

Several nations including China are relying on the EU to save their failing economies, and I have a prediction to make. This won't end well for any of them!

What does the market care about?     

I've been tracking markets closely for nearly 15 year. I've watched as the perma-bulls have done everything in their power to keep market corrections from happening, and to some extent they've succeeded, except for the sudden market crashes we see every few years, as we recently witnessed back in April, when the $VIX was driven from 30 to 60, in 2 days, before seeing the biggest short squeeze on the Nasdaq in history.  

Today we see the $VIX trading back below 20, after briefly testing the 22 level, on news that we were headed for a broader conflict in the middle east, with most investors pretty much ignoring the possible outcome. The market doesn't care about facts. 

At least Oil markets couldn't ignore the news, and I suspect that the Oil bulls haven't figured out how to manipulate the Oil $VIX (the $OVX), as easily as they do the $VIX. 

$VIX  - being sold at the 5- day moving average - this is one of the few things the market cares about 

 


 

Technically they will try to tell you that the $VIX can't be directly traded, and while that may be true,  there are other ways of manipulating the $VIX, and I've blogged on this topic at nauseam. 

Yesterday the market cared about the "dash for trash", which I predicted back in March, and I reaffirmed it in several subsequent blogs. They even managed to drive Bitcoin up 5%. 

 

 As usual I'm not giving away my trades, or handing out any valuable charts, but I can give you 1 more great example of what the market manipulators have been up to, as the 4th of July break draws near, and all the market cares about at the moment. 

Trapping the short sellers 

 


   Take Care, and have a great summer vacation, 

AA  

 

 

 

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Saturday, June 21, 2025

Can "Crude Oil Go Higher? + More Sector Rotations To Follow

 When the broader marker hardly moves for weeks at a time, and I find myself all caught up on charting,  that gives me more time to analyze geopolitical issues, so bear with me...  

Continuing on the same topic we touched on last week: 

Israel's Attack on Iran used as an excuse to drive energy prices higher 

 

The official narrative: 

 Investors are dissuaded from chasing the Oil rally 

I've seen every news outlet from Fox, to Bloomberg to Suzi Orman, warning investors not to chase the rally in oil. Normally I would take this with a grain of salt, and think that the mass distraction lame stream media is simply setting up the retail investor for another bear trap, but this time seems different.     

Motive: The motive could be that the powers that be are trying to keep inflation under control, but I think it's just as likely that they want to keep energy prices low, so that so called green energy can compete...      

In the previous update I revealed how the smart money continues to rotate from the tech sector - on pull backs - into what has clearly become a new safe haven trade - energy.  

Even Friday we saw Energy close 1% higher, as tech and Crypto were liquidated. 

Speaking of Friday's close, here's where I see the fast money going next 

 Small Caps 

 $IWM (Russell 2000 ETF) Set to rally off the lower channel on a 60 min. chart 

 


More Sector Rotations 

I see even better trades coming, and I'm even willing to put out alerts in really time, but only for the right price: 

Make that $999, if you're interested...  

 Take care, AA 

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Friday, June 20, 2025

Israel's Attack on Iran used as an excuse to drive energy prices higher

 

According to USA today Israel's first strikes of their air campaign, targeting Iran's nuclear program, kicked off on June 12th Israel-Iran timeline usatoday.com 

Crude oil actually broke out on June 1st, so government insiders knew what was coming... 

Of course when breaking news breaks, algorithmic trading programs kick in, so we still saw another big move to the upside on the breaking news.  

We see this more and more, as the same news is priced in, several times over... 

Another good example is Coinbase. It was recently announced that it is  going to be added to the $SPX, and many market insiders piled in, ahead of the news. Then when the algos were triggered the stock jumped another 20%. Friday we saw it up another 16%     

 $USO US Oil breaks out above the 50 day moving average on June 1st, after 2 weeks of consolidation  

 

WTI Crude is up 23% for the month of June 

#NatGas is also rallying, and this is also helping the energy trade, the trade I called out for several weeks prior.... 

 It was super easy to predict that the bull-tards would first drive tech stocks higher, and then rotate into energy, because this has been their MO for at least 2 years. 

Comparing the $NYFANG (tech) to the $DJOEP (Dow Jones Oil Production & Exploration) 

Energy leads then Tech leads, and vice versa. Also see Tech stocks trading at new all time highs, as CNBC suggests that this may be a "buying opportunity"?   

Tech stocks make new all time highs ahead of June Options Expiration

 Today is June Options Expiration (triple witching), and it looks like the bulls are intent on getting paid on their bullish Options, which they put on back in April (no doubt at $VIX +35 levels). What a racket! 

Take Care, AA 

P.S. It's becoming painfully clear that the Fed has no intention of making the stock market, or the housing sector great again, anytime soon.  

 

Fed's Jerome Powell says tariffs will drive inflation higher

 

Top economist warns America is heading toward economic disaster the Fed can't fix

 


 

 

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Tuesday, June 17, 2025

Best Trade of the Month, as $SOX (semiconductors) Lead Markets higher

 It's already time to declare victory again, after Monday's monster rally in the Semiconductor space. It's a little unusual to find such good market action during the summer, so you gotta take what you can get.   

The lying lame stream media are all reporting that, "big Tech led yesterday's rally", when in actuality is was Semiconductor stocks, including NVIDIA ($NVDA), and several other names in the space making new recent highs ($AMD, Micron, Broadcom, and $KLAC to name a few). 

As I blogged  last week, I suspected Semis were being pumped by CNBC Pro traders, and low and behold - after Friday's 1 day sell-off  - BOOM - yet another short squeeze. 

 See: 

Market Update + Best performing stocks for the week ending 6/6/2025

 Here I am calling the trade out, just ahead of  Friday's close: 

 $VIX remains low

I think most investors were not fooled by the +20 VIX  

 

I even offered a simple $VIX chart to prove it was another bear trap 

ChaChing! +10% gains on the $SOXL 

It was as easy as identifying which sector is being pumped by the fast money, and following the action.  

Wall Street obviously isn't too worried about Israel ramping up their aggression in the middle east... In fact they probably can't wait to test the latest laser weapon technology.   

Israel to show fresh weapons at Paris Air Show 

Take care, AA 

  

 

   

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Saturday, June 14, 2025

Connecting the dots

Picking up from Friday's update: 

Israel attacks Iran as expected. Energy trade confirmed! 

and the one before that; where I identified the massive influx of money flooding into the defense sector 

See:  Mysterious Market Action Revealed Iran/ Russia Gold Oil Defense Contractors

$TA125 (Tel Aviv 125 Index) Gold (miners), & Defense contractors are marching in lockstep...

 


 I forgot to include the recent highs we just saw in Crypto markets! 

 And now you know why certain markets have been out-performing every other market!

Connecting the dots:  

At first, I thought the ridiculous run in Gold had something to do with Trump, or the attempted Trump assassinations, or that the market actually believed that inflation was still a thing, but more than a year later, it all makes sense. 

Next let's compare the recent $VIX action to that of the so-called Trump tariff "uncertainty".  

There really is no comparison... 

The $VIX had no problem breaking out above the 50 day moving average, as the Trump tariffs story unfolded. 

The $VIX remains contained as Israel ramps up their assault on Iran  

 $VIX dcs chart  

It could be that the powers that be are slow-walking a market correction, but I suspect that we're about to see a deal struck between the White House, and Iran. Was this the desired outcome? Probably    

Why else would Israel wait until just days before a meeting is scheduled between the US & Iran? 

You also see the lame stream media going out of its way to explain that the US had no involvement... 

They must think the American people are as stupid as the Iranians lol  

Take care, AA 


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Friday, June 13, 2025

Israel attacks Iran as expected. Energy trade confirmed!

 Israel attacks Iran as expected

Israel attacks Iran again - this was expected, and priced in eons ago, but it's helping the Energy trade, nonetheless.

Also see my take on the Iran situation, and why this isn't expected to resolve itself anytime soon.    

Thursday, June 12, 2025

Yesterday's Mysterious Market Action Revealed Iran/ Russia Gold Oil Defense Contractors

  Energy trade confirmed 

I've been beating the drum on this energy trade for several weeks, and the Fast Money traders even got on board with it this week. 

   

 My first alert to the trade: 

 The Updated Chart ahead of this morning's opening bell 

 

ChaChing!  

This was super easy trading, because energy has lagged, and the bulls are running out of sectors to pump. 

 CNBC will try to tell you that the market is trading near all time highs, but that's total BS

I could rattle off several sectors by name which remain dead in the water, and speculative money rushing into crypto markets, and AI stocks can't change that. 

 

 

 Yesterday the lame stream media spent most the day pointing at the short squeeze in Oracle, when they weren't hyper-focused on the never ending political theater in Washington DC. 

 

Mapped: the 40 cities where anti-ICE protests have erupted across the US independent.com

  

 Take Care, AA 

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Thursday, June 12, 2025

Yesterday's Mysterious Market Action Revealed Iran/ Russia Gold Oil Defense Contractors

 You might think that I called the top on the market a couple days ago, but I really don't see the market gaining any downside momentum until after the July 4th short squeeze cycle, and it just so happens that Trump's deadline on more than 150 trade deals is July 9th. Yes, I believe it's all coordinated...   

I even warned any would be bears to steer clear of the Direction leveraged bear ETF $TECS (Tech short) 

Yesterday's mysterious market action revealed

If you were watching your tickers, yesterday, then you may have seen the $VIX gap up in the morning, and spike several times during the day. 

Oil also ran further than it had in some time, with the $USO gapping back above the 200 day moving average. 

I hadn't seen any news to explain what I was seeing, but I suspected something might be brewing... 

Of course there's a much bigger story here, and one that's been brewing for nearly a year, and one that presents a far greater military conflict, between the US, and Russia, and there's a good chance that Iran is going to provide the catalyst...  

 How do I know this? The smart money has been piling into Military contractors and Gold stocks for over a year now. 

 Published a year ago: 

6 Top Defense ETFs to Watch themotleyfool

Pricking out a couple Aerospace and defense stocks at random 

 $ITA iShares U.S. Aerospace & Defense ETF

 


 $PPA Invesco Aerospace & Defense ETF


 

 $FITE (pronounced "fight")  SPDR S&P Kensho Future Security ETF 

 

....tracks the S&P Kensho Future Security Index, a modernized version of a defense index. The Kensho index is designed to track companies focused on issues such as cybersecurity, advanced border security, military robotics, drones, and space technology. This is a relatively new fund and index.

The fund has about $65 million in assets. As of October 2024, the top five holdings in the SPDR S&P Kensho Future Security ETF were:

 

 As you can see this sector didn't have any trouble breaking out to new all time highs 

$DEFN (3X leveraged Aerospace & Defense Bull - we're actually seeing this one 4% lower this morning, as the smart money sells the news. 

 


 Of course removing Iran as a military threat is going to be good for Israel, and you can also see that in the charts. 

 $TA125 Tel Aviv 

 


Gold 

 

Take Care, AA 

 

 

 

 

 

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Monday, June 9, 2025

Market Update + Best performing stocks for the week ending 6/6/2025

Market update: 

Friday we finally saw the $SPX close above the 6000 mark, which means nothing to me, but may trigger more retail buying? 

We're basically trading around 40 handles higher than 3 weeks ago, so there is a lack of momentum.

I'm determined to sit on my hands for as long as it takes to see the market correct.

  

I was down with a spring rally, but now that I see momentum drying up, and stocks being stair stepped up - Jim Cramer style - I'll wait for the next elevator (going down). 

The CNBC Pump Continues    

 OK, I don't usually watch CNBC, but after Friday's close I was clicking around and saw them reporting the top performers for the week, most of which were semiconductors. WBP (Weekly Best Performers) may have been the acronym they used? I've never seen them do a weekly pump job;  I suspect this is something new, and it may be linked to their so-called pro subscription service.  

 I can't seem to find the information - I saw reported after Friday's close - republished anywhere else, and AI was no help in tracking down the top performers for the week, so I'll have to try to recall them from memory . 

Micron $MU - up nearly 15% for the week

Microchip Technology $MCHP - up 12.5% for the week  

On Semiconductor $ON - up 19.4% for the week! 

This morning in Pre-market we continue to see Semiconductors leading with the 3X bull ETF up another 2.5% 

$SOXL 

 


 Last I checked the broader market was UNCH but small caps higher

 $TNA - 3X small cap bull +2.8% in pre-market 

 


 Friday we Saw Energy lead 

 

 I feel like we're getting into the summer doldrums, and markets are moving on very light volume...

  @Grok confirms 

Recent stock market trading volume has indeed been lighter than usual, based on multiple sources. Posts on X from late May and early June 2025 highlight significantly low trading volumes across markets. For instance, one post noted that retail trading flow for the week ending May 30, 2025, was the lowest year-to-date, while another described the volume on June 3, 2025, as among the lowest observed recently for major ETFs like SPY and QQQ. Additionally, a post from June 6, 2025, mentioned below-average volume for many companies, with summer historically being a period of reduced activity, a trend exacerbated since the first tariff announcement in 2025.


 Take Care, AA 

 
 




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Friday, June 6, 2025

Elon Musk Trump feud Tesla $TSLA chart WARNING

 I'm not sure what to make of the apparent feud between Elon Musk & Donald Trump, but it sure has triggered the left wing media into a contest to see who can make their reporting sound the worse lol 

They love it! They love digging in the DIRT!   

Of course, the trolls and the bots have also been triggered 

 I think the whole thing is a ruse, and even the wife agrees. She called it "fake" as soon as she saw Bloomberg's reporting on it.  

My WARNING on Tesla  

Here I am - just last week - warning some young lady/ bot to stay away from Tesla, after viewing her profile, which mentioned something about her being an Elon/ Tesla fan.  

  Damn I'm good; I'm just that good!  

Tesla $TSLA actually doesn't look too bad here, and futures were up 5%, last I checked 

 $TSLA Tesla DCS chart - technicals -  I have about 15 different chart views of Tesla, but I drew this one up fresh, this morning.  

Support becomes the 50 day moving average, with resistance around the 200 day... super simple trade

We could see a little washout to the 260 level, and I would use that as an opportunity to add more there. 

I think we could see that target taken out, as soon as today's closing bell. 


 

Silver 

Picking up from where we left off yesterday: 

Silver is looking very toppy, regardless of the silver bugs claim (about there being no resistance above). 

 There's always the possibility that something as thinly traded, and manipulated, as silver, could go parabolic, and if that possibility scares you, then maybe you should look at trading something less volatile.  

 I'm seeing plenty of resistance at the $38 level, but I doubt it even runs to that target. 

It looks like a head-fake wave "B" (Elliottwave) pattern to me, as I tweeted out yesterday. 

 This morning I see it trading into a little triangle, around the 36.25 level 


 Take Care, and have a great weekend!

AA  


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Thursday, June 5, 2025

I'm seeing another bear trap being set this time in shares of Apple $AAPL

 As I blogged over the weekend, I was expecting the pump 'n' dump trade, when traders returned from the Memorial Day break, but I didn't know where.... 

See:  May Wrap-up, and a look ahead... + an important Chart Pattern all investors/ traders need to familiarize themselves with! 

 I suspect we could even see a retest of the recent highs, before the rug is pulled, because this is the pump 'n' dump bulls favorite way of liquidating their assets. Squeeze the short sellers, and dump at new highs. 

Turned out  the pump was/ is in Gold & Silver/ miners, and Natural Gas - commodities, which I covered in Tuesday's Update: Covering the Latest Pump 'n' Dump Target on Gold, Silver, Copper, Metals, Miners

 Tweeted out yesterday: 

  The Pump in Precious metals, and copper Continues  

The Silver bugs/ trolls are back this morning btw 

I didn't mention copper in the last update, but it just retested the psychologically important $5 target 

 


 Apple $AAPL 

I'm seeing another bear trap being set; this time in shares of Apple $APPL 

The usual suspects at CNBC. The same folks who told you to sit on the sidelines at the April lows. 

It really should be illegal to run the grift on a news network, but it is what it is. 

One person on Twitter got it right last week, when he alerted to yet another memetrade 

 

 Another user comments on the post above calling it "vibe-investing" 

 I found the following linked article in the top search result... Perhaps you can make sense of it? 

The Rise of "Vibe Investing" substack.com

Maybe I'm confusing engineered short squeezes with the rise of the rise of the memetrade, but there are definitely some similarities. 

We've also seen some explosive moves in the Crypto, and it's hard to predict where that boom turns to bust. 

GL, AA     

 

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Wednesday, June 4, 2025

Using Grok AI to Help Analyze Technical Charts (Tech Sector volume analysis/ analytics)

 I normally don't appreciate any outside input on my charts, because outside input has a way of tainting your own analysis, BUT there are times when I am left scratching my head e.g. as seen on the chart below. 

Long Term $DJUSTC (Tech) monthly chart going all the way back to before the '08 crash.

What I want you to pay attention to is the ever increasing volume, which seems to peak in 2 year cycles (2018, 2020, 2022, 2024). 


If you look closely at the volume; you should also notice that the volume has spiked to new all time highs, in 2005, which broke the 2 year cycle, and you'll see AI pick up on this towards the end of the chat sequence. 

Next I'm going to publish 2 Part chat GPT conversation, with yellow highlights.       

First: See my simplified question to Grok on this subject matter (volume, and 2 year cycles), before offering a followup, w/the chart. 

At the end: I'll offer my conclusion.    

 @Grok  

Question: What's causing stock market volume to increase exponentially, every 2 years?

 
Answer: There’s no definitive evidence that stock market trading volume increases exponentially every two years. While trading volumes have generally risen over time, the pattern is not consistently exponential or tied to a strict two-year cycle. Several factors contribute to the overall increase in trading volume, but they don’t align neatly with a predictable, exponential doubling every two years. Below, I’ll outline the key drivers of rising trading volumes and address why the “every two years” claim may not hold up.
Factors Driving Increased Stock Market Trading Volume
  1. Technological Advancements and High-Frequency Trading (HFT)
    • The rise of electronic trading platforms and high-frequency trading has significantly boosted trading volumes. Algorithms execute thousands of trades per second, amplifying volume far beyond human-driven trading. A 2017 JPMorgan study noted that passive investors and HFT account for about 60% of U.S. market trading volume, compared to just 10% from traditional discretionary traders.
    • These technologies have lowered transaction costs and increased market liquidity, encouraging more frequent trading. However, their impact grows irregularly, not on a fixed two-year cycle.
  2. Increased Market Participation
    • More retail investors are entering the market, fueled by accessible platforms like Robinhood and low-cost brokerages. The democratization of investing, including fractional shares and mobile apps, has driven higher trading activity.
    • Institutional investors, such as index funds and ETFs, also contribute to volume, especially during market rebalancing or at the open/close of trading sessions. This activity spikes at specific times (e.g., end of day) but doesn’t follow a biennial exponential pattern.
  3. Market Volatility and News Flow
    • Trading volume often surges during periods of volatility, driven by economic data releases, corporate earnings, geopolitical events, or policy changes (e.g., Federal Reserve decisions). For example, volume spikes at market open due to overnight news accumulation.
    • While volatility can cause short-term volume increases, these are event-driven and not tied to a consistent two-year cycle.
  4. Financial Innovation and New Instruments
    • The proliferation of derivatives (options, futures) and ETFs increases trading volume. Options trading, in particular, has grown due to retail interest, with volume reflecting both shares and contracts traded.
    • New asset classes, like cryptocurrencies, also draw trading activity, indirectly boosting equity market volumes. This growth is ongoing but not necessarily exponential or biennial.
  5. Globalization and Market Integration
    • Global markets are more interconnected, with cross-border investments and 24/7 trading in some assets increasing overall volume. Emerging markets, in particular, show higher volume predictability due to arbitrage opportunities, but this varies by region and isn’t cyclic.
    • This trend is gradual and influenced by economic development, not a fixed two-year doubling.
  6. Seasonal and Calendar Effects
    • Trading volume tends to spike at specific times, like the turn-of-the-month or January effect, due to portfolio rebalancing or tax-related trading.
    • These patterns are seasonal, not biennial, and don’t support a consistent exponential increase every two years.
Why the “Exponential Every Two Years” Claim May Not Hold
  • Lack of Empirical Evidence: The search results and available data don’t confirm a strict exponential increase in trading volume every two years. While volumes have risen over decades, the growth is uneven and driven by structural changes (e.g., technology, market access) rather than a predictable cycle. Studies on volume, like those in the meta-analysis of 468 estimates, show variability across markets and timeframes, not a consistent doubling pattern.
  • Exponential Growth Misconception: Exponential growth implies a constant doubling time, like bacteria splitting or compound interest. In reality, stock market volume is constrained by market size, liquidity, and participant behavior, making sustained exponential growth unlikely. For example, exponential growth in a finite system (like Earth’s economy) eventually hits physical or economic limits.
  • Data Variability: Volume data from sources like the S&P 500 or NYSE shows fluctuations tied to market conditions, not a regular doubling. For instance, the 2014–2015 Chinese stock market bubble saw sharp volume increases, but these were event-specific, not cyclic.
  • Historical Context: If volumes doubled every two years, the market would have implausible trading levels by now. For example, starting from a baseline volume in 1950, 35 doublings (75 years ÷ 2) would yield an astronomical increase (2^35 = ~34 billion times the original volume), which doesn’t align with observed market data.
Critical Perspective
The idea of an exponential increase every two years may stem from a misunderstanding of market trends or selective observation during bullish periods (e.g., tech-driven rallies). Mainstream narratives often exaggerate growth patterns to attract attention, but they oversimplify complex market dynamics. The reality is messier—volume growth is significant but irregular, driven by technology, participation, and market events, not a mathematical doubling cycle. Always question claims of precise periodicity in markets, as they rarely hold up under scrutiny.
Conclusion
Stock market trading volume has grown due to technological advancements, increased participation, volatility, financial innovation, and globalization. However, there’s no clear evidence supporting an exponential increase every two years. Volume growth is substantial but fluctuates based on market conditions and structural shifts, not a fixed cycle. If you have specific data or a source suggesting this two-year pattern, please share it, and I can analyze it further!
 
 
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