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Monday, October 31, 2022

Market Update 10/31/2020 - Trick or Treat?

 Happy Halloween! 

last week, I thought we might see a black Monday, coincide with Halloween, but after Friday's big rally, I kind of ruled that out. You just don't see a powerful rally, reverse on a dime, and end in disaster, the very next day. 

That was an awesome trade - on Friday btw!  


One area of the market where we could see disaster strike is in Oil, and Energy, where we saw stocks trade pretty much flat - ending on what could be described as a spinning top candle - for the week.

Energy DCS chart - also ends with a bearish candle, and your homework is to identify it. 

Here's a clue: google search "hanging man candle". Some technicians might incorrectly identify this as a bullish hammer, but that's a rookie mistake.     


Energy

This is where the dumb money has been hiding out for months, and here it is only retesting the June highs, just as we most recently saw the rest of the market retest the June lows, once again proving that Energy is the inverse trade, and I'll have plenty more to say about this in an another update  

I think the only thing that held energy up on Friday, was weekly OPEX, and the options market is where the real money was made... 

Industrial 

I have several upcoming blogs in the planning stages, one of which has to do with the massive rally we're seeing in industrial names. 

On the chart below, you'll see the DOW totally out-performing the NASDAQ (seen in pink), and there's a good reason for that! 


The Dow is only made up of 30 stocks,  29 of which ended in the green on Friday, in what can only be described as a cleverly engineered short squeeze.   

No reporting on this? That seems strange, but maybe the main stream media is too busy worrying about free speech on Twitter. That's a real threat to the tech tyranny! 

Speaking of Tyranny: 

In The News 

The globalists are celebrating the election results in Brazil

Latin America’s new wave of leftist leaders were on Monday among the first to congratulate Brazil’s Jose Inacio “Lula” da Silva for his wafer-thin victory over encumbent Jair Bolsonaro in Sunday’s presidential run-off.

Bolsonaro was widely known as a “Tropical Trump” who used social media and stump rallies to rail against the “globalist left” financialreview afr.com


What does this mean for Brazil? 

More of the same I'm afraid! 

If you need help navigating the Brazil trade, the energy trade, or any other trade, I have all the charts you need... 

Either PM me in my twitter, or contact me through my paypal. 3xmail, isn't functioning at the moment.  

Take Care, 

AA 



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Friday, October 28, 2022

Market Update 10/28/22 - $META, $AMZN, Biotech, Tech Stock, Energy, and The Fed Pivot

 In yesterday's update I advised you to find the bottom on $META, using a 15 min. chart view, and this is what it looked like after the open. 

$META 

Expect these beaten down tech names to remain pinned into today's weekly Options expiration, because this is the whole point of taking it down on a Thursday, but there's another reason why these stocks are beaten down this week, as I'll reveal in a minute. 
  

BIOTECH 

Biotech looks like it's about to make a run here, so that the NASDAQ doesn't get crushed, and the chart agrees. This looks like the perfect bullish setup. Also looks like another game of wack-a-mole. Drive one sector up, while driving another one down, and then only report the bad sector, to keep the bear market story alive, although I have not yet tried to apply the same pattern to the tech sector.  


I found that setup yesterday, after first drawing up what I assumed was going to look like a bearish chart, but it looks like the "Get vaxxed", narrative is going to continue... 

Biden gets his COVID shot on camera amid effort to convince others to get vaccinated thehill.com

Really (rhetorical)?  

Speaking of BS:

Funny, CNN apparently doesn't have any trouble reporting the story accurately! 

Elon Musk has taken control of Twitter and fired its top executives


Tech Stocks 

$DJUSTC - Another Bullish set up, and this confirms what I'm about to reveal.  


Looks like there's a good chance this is the massive sector rotation, everyone has been waiting for! 


Energy

Oil just happens to be trading inverse to the pattern I'm seeing in tech

Looks like money is about to flee this bloated sector, and pile back into Tech stocks, as I've been predicting, all along, and here's why... 

Next Weeks FOMC Meeting 

The corrupt Fed is about to bow to political pressure, from the corrupt politicians, and pivot, at least on their language. 

Sure they may do one more "supersized", rate hike, but who cares? GDP is positive, and the lending rate is still only 4%. 

I believe the criminals who control Wall Street are more interested in putting cash to work, ahead of the Thanksgiving holiday, and getting their Christmas bonuses... and this is why they've taken the opportunity to crush $META, $AMZN, and every other stock, they can't wait to own! 

I bet these Senate Leaders are already Net Long! 

Of course the lying financial cable news shows won't report any of this, but I've done my own due diligence:

 



As I tweeted in early October 


I'm in such a good mood, I think I'm going to take the day off, and add the above tech chart to the public charts area, and set it to auto-refresh, just like the old days! 

It's possible that we continue to see weakness carry over into Monday, or even the Fed announcement on Tuesday, so don't be surprised to see more shakeouts, ahead of that date. 

If I help you trade, then help support this website, by making a donation.  

Take care, 

AA   

P.S. You can try trading the 3X leveraged Biotech bull ($LABU), but I'm not sure it tracks the sector very well. You may be better off finding a 2X fund, or just trading an ETF, or index. 

 

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Thursday, October 27, 2022

Market Update 10/27/2022 - $SPX Tests the 50 Day Moving Average

 I've only allowed myself and hour to write this mornings update, so I have to try to keep this short. 

Tueday, the $SPX took out my upside target of 3850 as I reiterated in yesterday's update. 

Yesterday, the $SPX ran a little further, taking out the 50 day moving average, which was then sold around noon. That was no surprise.   

The market looks toppy on several chart views I'm watching, and I can't confirm a trend reversal, so I'd remain cautious. 

Things to watch: 

1. META (FaceBook) is set to washout to a new recent low, at the open, but does this price in all the bad news? I'd add this one to your ticker lineup, because $META is the canary in the coalmine, so to speak. 

I suggest charting it using a 15 min chart view, if you're looking for a buy target. I'm sure I'll have no trouble finding the target, but it's going to cost you $20. 

Speaking of prices, I went shopping at my local neighborhood Mariano's (which is now owned by Kroger - and I was absolutely in shock at the prices I'm seeing! 

Looks like I got this one right, back in April! 

$KR - Kroger 



2. $INDU  (the DOW) trades into a bearish pattern 

I actually spotted this H&S pattern, looking at the dow on my mobile app, but couldn't confirm it until I charted it, after the closing bell. 

Now the bears will probably get all excited over this bearish pattern, because the believe were in a bear market, but will you know what to do, when the price action breaks out above the right shoulder? Food for thought. 

Only 1 like on that chart, which was probably the best chart of the day. Makes me think, I've blocked 90% of the perma-bears who used to follow me, which is probably a good thing. I don't need bearish memes, or chatter, throwing me off. It's all about trusting the charts, not emotion. 

3. Canada - Yes Canada! Did you see the BOC pivot? I watch the $TSX 


4. Australia - Sold at the 50 day ma, like everything else.... 



The Catalyst for The destruction of Australia could either be retaliation from Russia, or the ongoing collapse of the climate. 

Antarctica’s Collapse Could Begin Even Sooner Than Anticipated scientificamerican.com

Could, may might? 

Australian defence force troops to train Ukrainian soldiers in the UK theguardian.com 

5. China! 

6.

And finally Energy

I think unless, or until, we see energy - as well as most other so called safety trades - collapse, then we aren't going to see beaten down sectors lead... 

7. The $VIX - found support at the 50 day Moving Average. 

That's bound to trigger more selling....   

Take Care, AA 




sss

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Wednesday, October 26, 2022

Your spooky Halloween Trade

Your spooky Halloween Trade 




Occupy! Scenes from Occupied America by Astra Taylor, Keith Gessen et al - review the guardian.com



We Were Just Getting Back to Good Trading, But Could The Market Crash Right Here? 

I started trading during the 08 crash, and later - in 2010 - I predicted a market crash, just ahead of the so called "flash-crash". This was when I used to write, in my public charts area, and just after that, was about the time I started this blog, so I have some previous experience with market crashes. 

I don't use the word crash much anymore, but I think it's very likely... as much as 10%, and with Halloween just around the corner, I think it would be kinda scary, and fun, all at the same time!  

‘Halloween came early’: Wall Street wraps up worst week in months as recession fears mount stltoday.com Sept. 16th, 2022

Crash is kind of a strong word, but I think it would be kinda fun to trade into a scary correction, spook investors, right into Halloween Monday. Maybe even a black Monday, which might be the perfect setup for a Thanksgiving rally.   

Some Technical Reasons for a correction/ crash 

1. We took out the final target, I pointed in yesterday's update, and this looks like one of those moments, where things are lining up pretty well for a correction - or worse - as I explained in my most recent News Letter.  

Adding weight to that target, is the fact that most the tech companies that reported lousy earnings - after yesterday's closing bell - had their share price run up into their respective 50 day moving averages, and dumped, ahead of earnings, and that means somebody knew something. 

Looking at the charts  

I'll give you one example, but as home work, you should take a close look at everyone who reported last night. 

$TXN Texas Instruments - Is this not the most bearish EW count you've ever seen? But what I really wanted to show you is the fact that this was run up into the 50 day ma, and dumped. 

    


This was no accident! This is the oldest trick in the book, the "pump n dump"!

Of course the news will report it, as if investors were caught off guard, but does anybody really think that half the big banks on Wall Street don't know exactly what earnings are going to be, weeks ahead of time?   

2. The Hindenburg Omen - 

You can find the technical definition for this at investopedia.com: 

 "The Hindenburg Omen is a technical indicator that was designed to signal the increased probability of a stock market crash. It compares the percentage of new 52-week highs and new 52-week lows in stock prices to a predetermined reference percentage that is supposed to predict the increasing likelihood of a market crash."

This effect can be caused when you have sectors trading out of whack i.e. Tech, Healthcare, Energy. As I've heard the great Art Cashin describe it, what happens - in the event of a Hindenburg event - is you have a sudden re-balancing. 

Speaking of the rally in Health Care stocks 


Makes sense to me that investors would be hiding out in Healthcare stocks, when they see a recession coming, and so many otherwise healthy, vaccinated people, dropping dead of heart attacks, but does anyone believe Energy is going to out-perform in a slow down?  

Energy 

I guess I would have to admit I was at least early on the call for the second leg down in Energy stocks, and I'm sure it won't be the last time.... 

Most technicians tend to jump the gun, but I'm going to blame this one on investor intelligence, or the lack there of. More on this in a future blog. 

$BP British Petroleum - looks like it's trading into a head-fake wave "b". Yeah, it made a higher high, as it traded into Options Expiration, and I think this is also a nice setup to rob the retail investor, but a crash..? Probably not, but energy does need to sell-off with everything else, and a powerful minor wave "c" fits the bill.      

Of course Tech and Semis will have to lead the declines as usual, and since few are expecting to see a crash here, it sure as hell can happen.




Take Care, 
AA
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Tuesday, October 25, 2022

Market Update 10/25/2022 - Target Achieved - China, and more...

$SPX finally takes out the target I pointed to in the weekly news letter:

"...3806 - 3812. Same resistance I was pointing at last week." 

I wouldn't be surprised to see the market continue to hold up, and even test the 3850 level, but this rally has been so weak, I can't get behind it.

Yesterday, we saw a Monday morning surprise take-down in US owned Chinese stocks. 

Of course the News is all over the China story now, but I've been reporting on this, and pointing to the meltdown in China for weeks/ months.

In Market Update 10/12 - Let's take a look at what's really going on with this market - I talk about 


 "The Ongoing China Trade War!"  


Of course, I'm looking forward to buying the bottom in Chinese stocks, as soon as I can confirm it, BUT 

As far as US equities are concerned, the market managed to shrug off the escalation of the US China cold war, but the market looks weak, and sell-offs typically happen one sector at a time. Sometimes reactions are delayed.  

The UK simultaneously got a new Prime Minister, so some of what we saw yesterday, was a relief rally. 

Next on the calendar:

1. FOMC Meeting next week 

2. A Highly anticipated - supersized - move by the BOE 

Bank of England to hike by 75 bps on Nov. 3 but may go bigger  Reuters 

That's 5 trading days away - plenty of time for a sharp correction 

We've already seen Oil, and Natural Gas taken down, ahead of the mid-terms, and that sets the stage for the Fed to take their foot off the brake. 

I'm outta time, 

AA 




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Saturday, October 22, 2022

Market Update 10/22/2022 - Weekly Review & A Look Ahead

I really haven't had much time to blog over the past several days, but really not much has changed since Tuesday's update, so a link to today's blog has been provided in the Weekly News Letter, in order to get everyone caught up to speed.

If you have not yet signed up for the weekly news letter, you're missing a lot, as I tie together some of the most important market developments, and highlight them in a concise, and easy to understand way. Not everyone has the time to follow me on twitter all day, and even if you could, you're probably not getting the whole picture.    

So, to get everyone caught up to speed, and to kill two birds with one stone: 

Friday's action, looks like another short covering rally, on the heels of overly bearish sentiment, which had been priced into the options market, earlier in the month.   

This is typically what you see when sentiment changes: 

1. Extreme bearishness followed by short covering. 

2. Extreme bullishness, followed by profit taking.  

We did get a nice rally on Friday, but I think we're still looking at a pullback, and possibly even another washout in tech... I gave you the lowdown on that, in Weds update 

Things to watch this week. 

First thing I noticed with I opened my charting software this morning, is the DOW testing the 50 day moving average.  Something to watch

$SPX isn't trading anywhere near the 50 day, but I'd be watching resistance at the previous high of 3762.79, and 3806 - 3812. Same resistance I was pointing at last week. 

If we do see another big pullback (shakeout) I'll be looking for support around the 3600 level, and we could even see it pullback as far as a near retest of the recent lows around 3550. 

I don't want to give away too much, but I'll probably reveal the chart I'm watching, in next weeks news letter, or as we get closer to Thanksgiving.  

Take Care, AA 






sss

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Wednesday, October 19, 2022

Market Update Wed. 10/19/22 - Looks Like The Market is still Trying to Build A Base - NASDAQ #FAANG #Stocks #China #Investors

 Looks Like The Market is still Trying to Build A Base 

Seeing continued market weakness, this morning, as expected.  

Yesterday afternoon, I tweeted that this market seemed to have legs, when we saw buyers continue to come in at the 3700 level, and no doubt money is being put to work at certain levels, but that doesn't mean we're off to the races. 

As I stated in yesterday's update: 

"...were likely to see some giveback in certain European markets, 
and that may spill over into US markets"

I also stated: 

"Monday, we saw money put to work, which is exactly what one would expect, going into a new quarter, ahead of an election."

 And that's all true, BUT there's something else that happened Monday morning! 

Some hedge funds must have thought it would be cute, to gap the NASDAQ up - above resistance - and set a bear trap, in order to cause another short covering rally, which was absolutely unnecessary after the massive move we had already seen on Thursday. 

 Manipulators gonna manipulate, because this is what manipulators do. They aren't going to wait for the market to build a base. This thing has Jim Cramer's finger prints all over it, but all the hedge funds rig  markets the same way, and when you see markets gap up, or down, for that matter, there's usually some key technical level being taken out.  

This 

$COMPQ - The NASDAQ - 30 min view - They raised the bid on the NASDAQ above resistance, leaving a nasty gap behind. This is typical Wall Street dirty tricks 


Of course the solution is to go back and fill the gap. 1 step forward, 2 steps back, or vice-versa.  

FAANG 

We were already seeing FAANG stocks sold at yesterday's open, but it's hard to say if that's going to continue, with NetFlix up, and Apple holding it's own. 

$NYFANG index  - was sold at the 20 day moving average. This was the perfect place to fade the gap


As you can also see, on the chart above, we may currently only be consolidating in wave "4". 

It may not be until next week, that we see the market correct, but that all depends on the $VIX, which is still riding pretty high. 

Speaking of the $VIX 

I saw Bloomberg talking about the high $VIX yesterday, but they would be better off not trying to explain things that they don't understand. 

China 

China continues to crash. There's something the MSM likes to ignore. The 2 year bear market in China, and 14 years for Hong Kong! That's right the 2018 high, was rejected, at the 2008 levels.  

Isn't this the same Chinese market that was suppose to lead the global economy into the future? 

What are the controllers planning next? 

Are they going to de-list American traded Chinese stocks, as they did Russia? 

And why is it, that Australians apparently got the memo, but not American investors? 

4 years in the making! Take a look at a 5 year view of the Hang Seng 



I wonder what ever happened to China Bull Jim Rodgers. Last time I saw him, he was being interviewed by some unkempt, stoner, who was broadcasting from his kitchen.   

As screwed up as things are in the US, and the UK, be happy you don't have to trade in China. 

Speaking of US screw-ups:

Biden administration to tap oil reserve again ahead of midterms politico 

 

Take Care, AA 

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Tuesday, October 18, 2022

Market Update Technical Tuesday 10/18/22 - The Big Reveal

The BIG REVEAL 

Like I said in yesterday's update, I liked where stocks closed on Friday, and that set up for another big rally on Monday.   

To Recap: 

 1. Thursday we saw a big rally in US stocks 

2. Friday, we got a pull back to a higher recent low. That's bullish. 

3. Monday, we saw money put to work, which is exactly what one would expect, going into a new quarter, ahead of an election. 

4. Today Tuesday - we're seeing a continuing relief rally overseas, carry over into US equities.

a. The "U-Turn" on Truss's economic plan. 

b. The delay on the release of China's lousy GDP numbers 

That's all the catalyst you need for a relief rally, but we could add the fact that not even $MS wants to be short US equities going into October OPEX (options expiration), as short bets have already reached extremes, and point to capitulation, in US markets. 

We're also in earning season which is one of the catalyst.... I correctly identified last week. 

Of course everyone on Wall Street seems to be on board, with this rally, and is throwing money at it, so let's call this "the Morgan Stanley Rally".  

You can get the full story right here, without having to pay for CNBC Plus:

Morgan Stanley's Wilson Finally Turns More Positive, Sees Stocks Rallying in Near Term streetinsider.com

CNBC Publishes the target; in the next headline, and that's all you need...: 

Morgan Stanley’s Mike Wilson sees a bear market rally that can lead to an 11% gain from here cnbc

Of course if you were listening to the idiots on CNBC, and Bloomberg, yesterday, they would tell you that the market sold off hard on Friday, and Monday was the reversal. 

It can get very confusing listening to 12 different financial news outlets report 12 different stories, and 90% of what is being reported is absolutely wrong, or downright deceptive, and the fact that some of these outlets expect you to pay for a subscription, is laughable!  

To cut through the BS: 

Morgan Stanley covered their shorts bets, and is calling for a relief rally, back to the 4150 level. 

Of course I don't agree with Morgan's strategist on everything, but I'm down with this rally, since I called it first.

 I've even drawn up a new chart, and added it to the Public Charts Area!  
 

The BIG REVEAL 


$SPX - Morgan Stanley Chart - Obvious target is the 200 day ma. 

Wait, isn't that the target, I've been pointing to for several weeks, now? uh, yeah 

Does this mean we're out of the woods? Not Quite... 

I think there's a good chance energy crashes, and were likely to see some giveback in certain European markets, and that may spill over into US markets. 

I took some profits in a couple sectors yesterday, and will probably do so again today, and we haven't even tested the  resistance level I pointed to in Friday's update. 

Energy: 

Seems like every day, I hear the same argument about the energy sector, as if energy is somehow undervalued, as compared to Oil prices? 

1. Look, Oil is trading nearly 30% of the March high, yet Energy stocks continue to trade near all time highs. This makes absolutely no sense. 

2. We continue to see extreme bullishness in the energy sector, even though it is trading at lower highs - for the year. That is a huge red flag, because this describes exactly what a suckers rally in wave 2 looks like. 

3. Energy continues to rally in the face of massive losses in nearly every other sector. Are we supposed to believe we're pricing in a recession, in Technology stocks, but not energy stocks? FOOLS! 

 For Example: $FANG Diamond Back Energy    



Take Care, AA   








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Monday, October 17, 2022

Market Update - the Weekly Wrap-up, and a Look Ahead

 I liked the way the market pulled back on Friday; looks like, yet another, bullish, setup.

What I find uncanny is how the market has continues to consolidate precisely around the same psychological target that I pointed out, last week - $SPX 3595. Even after Thursday's little shakeout, the market continued to gravitate to that level!   

If we happen to see more consolidation (lower), this week, then look for more support at the 3570 level, although it's already looking like we may be off to the races on this Monday Morning. 


 I drew this chart in about 2 min. using a screenshot - from yahoo - and a pencil. Simply drew a support line from the low we saw in early Oct.  

This Chart Update From My Public Charts Area 

That Wilshire 5000 chart isn't helping anyone find broader market targets, and that's the whole point.... I've had too many people plagiarize my work, over the years, and profit from it. I've even seen my personal profile description plagiarized, in an attempt to help sell memberships.   

Let these fakers figure out - on their own - where the market is going over the next several months. I have a very good idea where it's going... but not giving away free targets to con artists, and grifters.

 To correct a couple mistakes 

I needed to correct a few errors in Friday mornings update, so I responded to the pinned alert to Friday's update, located in my twitter view.    

Read more »
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Friday, October 14, 2022

Is this just the beginning of the Face Melting Rally, we've been waiting for...?

 I'm short on sleep today, and have a lot of charting to get caught on, after the opening bell, so I have to try to keep this short. 

As I stated in Wednesdays update:

 "Bottoming is a process", which can't be rushed.    

I'm sure most my readers would like to believe that yesterday's rally was just the beginning of a more sustainable rally, but when I see the DOW, the S&P, and the NASDAQ, driven above , otherwise meaningless, round number targets  - (#DOW30k, 3700, 11k) - and this, trading into yet another short squeeze Friday, I have my doubts. 

There are other things I didn't like about yesterday's rally, including the fact that the most beaten down sectors didn't lead.... energy did. 

Nevertheless, after yesterday mornings little shakeout - on a negative $VIX, I might add - the $SPX is trading back above key support (3588.11).

This morning

Looks like we're poised to to fill the gap on the $SPX that was left behind last week 

Next real resistance looks like 3812ish

In Hindsight: 

1. "Only trust the $VIX...", not the red banners your seeing on the TV. 

 2. Recognize your breakout points 

I have a lot more to touch on, but I'm out of time, after getting bogged down in the creation of a new landing page for the weekly news letter. Be sure to sign up! 

You can review my play by play, in yesterday's twitter timeline, for more insight.  

Take Care, AA


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Thursday, October 13, 2022

Market Update 10/13/2022 - Time to re-group, ahead of Earnings Season + A BONUS SECTOR CHART!

Yesterday, it occurred to me, that the market is waiting for something, and I figure that something must be earnings season, and that officially kicks off with Bank earnings over the next 2 days, including $JPM on Friday. 

 $JPM is a stock we've been watching closely over the past couple weeks - This should be real interesting since non other than CEO Jamie Dimon continues to tell us how bad things are. 

Something else that was on my mind, yesterday, and let's face it, sometimes the market is so dull, that there's not much else to do, but let your mind wander... 

Re: The Fed tightening:  

If the economy was strong - which it is, or was, when the FED started tightening monetary policy, then the market should be pricing in a recovery, as interest rates rise, yet investors are looking at what has always happens in the past, when TheFed suddenly pulls the punch bowl away, and that has always turned out to be a very sobering experience (pun intended).  

See this: 

Comparing the Speed of U.S. Interest Rate Hikes (1988-2022) visualcapitalistcom




The above graph is a good representation of why certain market participants are having a freak-out moment. The pace of these rate hikes doesn't point to a recovery, but to an economy that's running too hot, but can the rate of these increases continue, or will the fed pause, and when...? 

BREAKING NEWS: 

Seeing another shakeout to a lower low, on another backward looking inflation indicator 

Dow futures drop more than 500 points, on hotter than expected inflation report cnbc  

The only reason CNBC prints the DOW down 500, is because it sounds like a lot. 

So, expect another little shakeout to a lower low, at the open, just ahead of what will probably turn out to be a, "not as bad as expected", earnings season. 


Bonus chart! I like Airlines here



Good Luck, 
AA 


   

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Wednesday, October 12, 2022

Market Update 10/12 Let's take a look at what's really going on with this market

 Let's take a look at what's really going on with this market 

In the past couple blogs, I touched on the sell-off in tech, and $SOX and the rest, and how the recent sell-off has been pretty much isolated to a few sectors, and this is typical of a market that's trying to build a base. 

1. "Bottoming is a process", which can't be rushed.     

2. "Targets overshoot", and shakeouts are performed in order to shake you out - duh! 

But what's The Real Catalyst For This Sell-off? 

I trust the charts, but that doesn't mean I ignore catalysts, because news -fake or not - moves markets. 

After all could the market sell-off on profit taking alone, or is a story needed in order to panic investors into selling their precious shares?   

Looking Back At the Catalyst for the crash of 2020

Most investors would say the Covid pandemic was the catalyst for the crash of 2020, and that story was used to panic investors, as a specific time (day after OPEX), and also used as an excuse to continue, "bailout world", policy, and I said so, at the time. 

Of course I knew the story was a hoax, and being used to juice global markets, and for the Pharmaceutical Industrial Complex to push untested vaccines, on an unsuspecting public.  I was kicked off twitter, more than once, trying to warn people, about the dangers of taking an untested vaccine, and the internet continues to be scrubbed of most every article that questions the safety, or effectiveness....  

This from the British Medical Journal - published Dec. 2021 bmj.com 

As far as the safety of the vaccines is concerned, it is clear that rare but serious, and potentially fatal adverse effects occur, such as thrombosis and myocarditis, [8] and that these took months to identify. Long-term harms will be difficult to detect due to the short duration of the randomized trials, and will only become apparent in coming years.

Most recently: 

From The Washington Times - Vaccine warning from Florida’s surgeon general... 

The self-controlled case series analysis found that men ages 18-39 experienced an 84% increase in the relative incidence of cardiac-related death within 28 days of vaccination. “With a high level of global immunity to COVID-19, the benefit of vaccination is likely outweighed by this abnormally high risk of cardiac-related death among men in this age group,” the guidance says. “Non-mRNA vaccines were not found to have these increased risks.”
I'll bet you didn't hear any main stream news organization lead with that story this morning, but folks in academia are afraid to speak out at the risk of being cancelled, de-funded, or worse. 

Today's Catalyst as being reported by the lame stream media 

 1. Russia

Today we see Ukraine being used as an excuse for more reckless spending, and turning the US into a puppet empire, for the expansion of NATO. Is this spending even accounted for, and what about the risk of a Nuclear apocalypse, is this acceptable with our so called, "representatives" in Washington?

2. The Fed

Most investors think the real catalyst for the recent selling is the federal reserve, because this is what they hear on the TV all day, but as I tweeted out yesterday 

3. Lately they've turned to blaming the Bank of England, and a few distressed pension funds....

 I recognized the selling (fear) was coming out of the UK, months ago, but I still couldn't understand why... until I did some due diligence, after piecing together, a few snippets of thing I've heard, and doing an exhaustive internet search. Went down one rabbit hole, and came out the other side.    

The Ongoing China Trade War!  

There's a term you don't hear reported anymore! Did the US China Trade War story die, when China Joe was elected? No, not really... 

The Trade War with China, didn't start with Trump, and certainly didn't end with Trump, as much as that proverbial horse was beaten like a drum, while Trump was still in office. 

The Internet is still littered with fake news stories, which go into great detail, about how Trump got us into a "trade war with China", yet the trade war continues, and now expands to the chip sector, and technology. 

Of course as hard as the lame stream media tried to blame Trump for a trade war with China, they have to try equally as hard NOT to report that President Biden is  taking his orders from the deep state globalists, overseas.   

The Asian Pivot - as it's been called - has been going on since the Obama administration, and this explains why Biden was "selected", and put in charge of it today.    

See 

America Still Needs to Rebalance to Asia aei.org 

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Tuesday, October 11, 2022

How about this psychological target? Energy & Oil Day 7 & The Icing on the Cake

$SPX 3595 is looking pretty good to me. It's a good psychological target, and we've become  increasingly over-extended - to the downside, over the past week, or 2. 

We're also less than a month away from the Nov. election, and only a little over 6 weeks away from Thanksgiving, and that means we're already moving into short covering season. Everybody, and his brother seems to be short at this point, and the bears are pretty full of themselves, and that sets up for another rip roaring rally....

Here I am, up at 2:30AM Chicago time, Tweeting the ES1 futures action: 

Looked like this a few hours later, breaking out.... 


I could see the pattern, before I even drew it - a down-turned triangle. Indicative of some kind of bottom



 

Tweeted 

 

As far as timing: I think there's a good chance that yesterday's light selling volume, was a retail bear trap, but we'll have to see what today brings. 

Key technical Support 

Of course the financial msm could point to key technical support, but more often than not, they prefer to make up reasons for the market, being up, or down. Every day it's, Putin, Energy crisis, The Fed, as the market is walked down to the next technical target. 

Yesterday, we continued to see some shakeouts in certain sectors, like $SOX, which I mentioned in yesterday's update. Funny, after I mentioned it, I heard it reported several times. 

 I see exactly what's going on. I know what the technical target is, on $SOX, and tech and the rest.... that's why I took profits in $SOXL, and half a dozen other long positions, last Tuesday. Not the easiest thing to do.... 

Tomorrows trade 

The trick is going to be, staying long, once we can confirm a sustainable rally, because what has continued to work up to this point, is to, "buy the dips, and sell the rips". 

Energy and Oil Day 7

7 days since I put the warning out.... 

That didn't stop the fast money from driving the energy sector to even higher recent highs on Friday.  

I did reveal an oil chart yesterday which shows a slight breakout of a down-turned channel. 

Oil overshoots all the time.

 

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Monday, October 10, 2022

Weekly Wrap-up Saturday 10/8/22 - and a look at the weeks ahead. Also an important announcement!

I started this update on Saturday, before getting bogged down in technical issues, and paperwork. 

I'm also working on the creation of a Weekly News Letter, after finding out that bloggers follow-by-mail widget went away, in April, of 2021, so don't be surprised when you receive an email from me. 

You can signup for the weekly news letter through the link in the tab menu, or at the bottom of the page. Let's keep in touch! I'm not sure if I'm going to continue blogging on this site, or move somewhere else, but I'm just getting started!  

Monday Morning 10/10 Columbus Day 

Of course trading is going to be slow, on this, another banking holiday. 

Going back to the beginning of last week: There was no Black Monday, just as I had predicted there wouldn't be... in last Saturdays weekly wrap-up.   

Last week's trading was a little unpredictable, due to the Jewish holiday, which I eluded to, in another update. Instead we saw a powerful rally, followed by a gap up, on Tuesday - short covering just ahead of Yom Kippur.  

From there the market went quiet for a few days, and as it turns out, a little too quiet, because in hind sight, when traders returned on Thursday, they were already planning to take the market back down... 

Friday we energy continue to rally, while most other sectors were taken down


Of course tech was taken down the hardest, as usual. 

Funny, the lame stream media always refers to the market, as a whole, and likes to show heat maps like the one above on big down days, yet it's mostly only been a handful of tech stocks, and other junk, that not only led the ridiculous rally of 2020, but have also led the declines, of the past 2 years - Zoom, Peloton, Shopify, Spunk ($SPLK), and even names like $MMM, to name a few. Let's call this the pump 'n' dump basket, because that's exactly what it was.    

In fact entire sectors were pumped and dumped. You don't hear about, "streaming wars", or the "vaccine manufactures" anymore.   

I could show you literally 100's of stocks that have led the declines, and 1000's more that haven't.  This is a bifurcated market.  

Speaking of beaten up tech stocks 

I'm going to offer you 1 chart, and your homework is to do a web search on the candlestick analysis.... 

$COMPQ (weekly view) - A Gravestone Doji - and your homework is to do a web search on the candlestick analysis - and you'll find that this is bullish as hell, as I've been saying for weeks. 

$















It's just a shame we have to spend days/ weeks waiting for sector targets on $SOX, and whatever else, before we see the inevitable rally into the Nov Election, and probably the end of Q4. There's just no other reason they would be trying to shake everyone out, with fake news, and even talk of nuclear "Armageddon". These are sick people, can't even get their terminology correct! 

See: 

The Real Difference Between the ‘Apocalypse,’ ‘Armageddon,’ and ‘Doomsday’ lifehacker.com


 


There will eventually be, what I jokingly, like to call the "Armageddon trade", but not for some time. 

For the time being, there's really no other trade than to sit on your hands, and add on any further weakness. 

Hey, that reminds me! I'm still sitting on a little cash.... 

Gotta run, AA 



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Friday, October 7, 2022

Looking at The Short Squeeze in Weed/ Pot Stocks on Yesterday's News

Looking at The Short Squeeze in Weed/ Pot Stocks on Yesterday's News 


Today's headline should read: Joe Biden, in a desperate move, to rally his base - criminals felons, and drug users - just ahead of the midterm Elections (in November), promises to pardon - through executive order - Felons convicted of Felony Marijuana offenses. 

DANK BRANDON RISES!  


Instead this is today's headline from CNN (politics): 

Biden pardons all federal offenses of simple marijuana possession in first major steps toward decriminalization

Think this wasn't all planned ahead of time, and government insiders are already fully invested? Come on, this is the age of deception, and greed, 2022!  

Whether you're for legalization marijuana, or not, the motive for this move is purely designed to get potheads to the polls in Nov., and probably for a small army of government insiders, and hedge funds to get a, "return on their investments".  

Whether or not this move paves the way for federal decriminalization, remains to be seen, but I think if it can be used to help Wall Street, and tax poor people, it has a good chance!     

I personally see no problem with legalization, as I believe alcohol is a far more dangerous drug, and we all know prohibition didn't work.  

DUDE THAT'S MY SKULL! 


But what do the Charts say? 

If you had asked me last week, I would've said the charts looked like, pot stocks were overdue,  for a bounce, and I actually found myself bottom picking  pot stocks last week, and even added to my holdings on Wed., of this week! I keep telling folks I'm psychic, but they don't believe me! 

I wish I could tell you which one I own, for bragging rights, but I have enemies in high places, and "loose lips sink ships". Maybe, once I take profits, I'll publish a screen shot....  

$ACB - Aurora Cannabis - still firmly in a down-trend - even after it looks like it's going to open up another 3%. If it was going to open, above 1.75 then we would see plenty more short covering, but for now this just looks like a dead cat bounce. 


$OGI OrganiGram Holdings Inc. (OGI) Clearly needs to breakout above the 1.10 level, in order to panic the short sellers . 


$CURLF Curaleaf Holdings - This looks like it could run to 7, or even throw-over to 7.50  

Happy Short Squeeze Friday!  In case you don't know... this is a common occurrence in bear markets.  

I don't recommend chasing short squeezes unless there is upside momentum on the chart, and every pot stock I'm following has been in a bear market for some time, and is trading as a penny stock.  

My advise is to stay away from penny stocks, and other junk, and not to chase short squeezes, whether they're in pot stocks, or even the energy sector.  

btw I did issue a Fibonacci warning on crude oil, to my people on LinkedIn, just last night. A possible wave 3 crash, could start as soon as today.   




Take Care, AA 



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