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Monday, July 31, 2023

Weekly Wrap-up Update 7/31/23 - Blatant Market Manipulation Continues

Hope you had a good weekend; I sure did! 

Weekly Wrap-up Update 7/31/23 - Blatant Market Manipulation Continues


Friday's action: 

The manipulation we witnessed on Friday, takes the cake.

As I told one trader the manipulation has become blatantly obvious! 

I'm getting better at recognizing how the powers that be are using moving averages to drive AI programs, but it can still be a little difficult to predict. 

$VIX - 60 min view 

You can see where the $VIX was hammered below support using the same 60 min. chart view  


As it turns out, my fears that the $VIX may continue to gain some traction on Friday were unjustified, and in hindsight I should've know the bulls were NOT going to sell tech stocks on the last Friday of the month.

$INTC earnings were pumped as expected, and Friday's action made sure that the powers that be, got paid on their weekly call options.

In fact the first thing the powers that be came in and fixed the charts first thing Friday morning, by driving the price action at the open, back above the 50 ma, on the 60 min. charts. 

When you're able to rig the options market for months on end, you don't throw in the towel on the last Friday of the month. Now there's a Statistic to check; how many last Friday's of the month end on a sour note? I'll bet very few..!

All you have to do is take a look at weekly/ monthly views  candlestick chart of the $VIX and you'll find the answer: 

$VIX weekly candlesticks - not even 1 bullish hammer candle since April 2022! 



The Dash For Trash Continues 


I should've realized that the dash for trash would continue, as we saw $YINN (3X leveraged China) up over 15%! 

I didn't see any coverage of the rally in Chinese stocks, during Friday's trading session. 


In hindsight the money they made squeezing the short sellers of  Chinese stocks, they were able to put to work pumping names like Intel, and $ROKU (up 25%). 

I really should've known the market would continue to be rigged into the end of the month, and that US markets were going to be lifted by Chinese stocks.  

This is the whole point of sending Jamie Dimon, and Janet Yellen to China.  

In fact I think the powers that be are more concerned with making China great again, than the Divided States of America.

These people call themselves "liberals" but they've actually hijacked that term. They're straight up fascists' 

Social Injustice, Poverty, Militarism, and Disenfranchisement
Why Liberals Love Dictators 101 canadafreepress.com



Eye opening read; but I digress 

The market has recently entered dangerously overbought territory, on overly bullish sentiment. 

The day of reckoning is coming, and that could be some time in August, as I warned on June 2nd:


 "...if the market continues to hold up on light summer volume, we may not see much of a sell off until August..." 

Take Care, AA  


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Friday, July 28, 2023

Summer Rally Fizzles

 I wasn't planning to work today, but the weather isn't cooperating with my outdoor plans. 

Summer Rally Fizzles 

Looks like this rally is finally losing steam, after the trading action we witnessed yesterday; yet another nasty midday reversal, and it's no wonder... when you see the crooked hedge funds piling into Chinese Equities.

Hedge Funds Rush to Buy China Stocks on Economy Stimulus Prospects - Goldman usnews.com 

Shanghai up another 2% overnight, Hongkong up another 1.5% 

Seeing US traded Chinese stocks up 4% in premarket - being jacked above resistance - in an attempt to squeeze some short sellers.

China 

Looking at the $FXI chart; I can't help but wonder if Jamie Dimon and the Racketeers at JP Morgan know something about this?!

US Markets 

The biggest reversal in yesterday's session was in Semiconductors, many of which were pumped to new recent highs, before giving back half their gains, which may have something to do with $NVDA earnings, which are due out today. Remember, it wasn't until NVIDIA Earnings which triggered the AI story a month ago. 

This looks like the old pump and dump out of one sector (chips), and into the next (China). 

Facebook also made a new recent high, nearly filling the gap that was left behind last year.

$META - Nothing bullish about the recent market action. Just another mega-gap target being filled on light summer volume; with the help of the financial fake news, of course.  

Tweeted this morning 

The $VIX  


Yesterday's little break out on the $VIX was a surprise, and I'm still not sure what to make of it, but I've gone from bullish, to cautious:  

I can show you this very short term view of the $VIX. 

But I later found a $VIX breakout point that concerns me. 


Another reason we're probably seeing some profit taking, is because of the long August break coming up for Congressional Insider Traders.  

Exercise extreme caution as we trade into August 

AA 

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Thursday, July 27, 2023

Summer Rally Continues

Yesterday's FOMC report didn't take the $VIX down as much as I was anticipating, but this morning we're seeing the $VIX crushed - right on schedule - and most everything up on META earnings. 

3:33 AM 


I saw this coming a mile away - on Tues.- and I'm getting more comfortable trading tech at these levels.

BOOM! 

This is the first time I've been able to get excited about this tech rally, since I called the big breakout on NVIDIA, but the setup on the charts was obvious. Of course there are several charts I can't show you - because I don't want to reveal my personal trades - but here's a clue to what's going on in the leveraged QQQ bull.

$TQQQ - being bought at the 20 day moving average. I'll let you decide if this is the average retail investor... or AI. 

Of course, this entire rally has been based on the manipulation of the QQQ's, and knowing that makes my job easy. 

$NFLX  Here's another clue I spotted on one of the Q's major components: Netflix. 

As they say, "the trend is your friend".   

I have several other charts which I can't show, but the 5 day pullback was clearly bullish. 

Don't confuse a tradable rally with a bull market, and I had to block one such idiot... this morning.

 Bearish 

Of course we're going to see a trend reversal at some point, but not until we see the bears capitulate, and Joe Sixpack fully invested.  

Of course this is what CNBC is for:  To make this rally seem historic; in order to get the below average (intelligence) retail investor involved.

Speaking of CNBC 

$INDU -  looking at the daily winning streak on the Dow, it's clear that there's nothing spectacular about it, but they continue to claim this is some kind of historic record. 


I may be out of the office tomorrow, but I'm not expecting to see the market sold on a Friday, after a 5 day pullback. 

I may publish a weekly newsletter on Saturday so be sure to signup for that! 

That's about it. 

Take Care, 


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Wednesday, July 26, 2023

Market Update FOMC Wed. July, 26th, 2023 - Wall Street's top bear - Morgan Stanley's Mike Wilson - admits 'we were wrong'


Funny, most every other news outlet fails to report the second part of that headline, where Mike Wilson refuses to throw in the towel. That's called, "lying by omission". 

More media deception; as the leftist lockstep news media continues to call the vaccination complications a "conspiracy". 

I even caught one of the bozos on Fast Money still pushing this insane pro-experimental vax theory last night. I turned the show off, and responded this morning in a tweet. 

But wait there's more! 

Bronny James cardiac arrest – latest: LeBron thanks son’s doctors as Elon Musk pushes anti-vax conspiracy independent.co.uk
That's a good example of parroting what was stated on CNBC's Fast Money last night, while gas lighting the general public. 

Is it any wonder the twitter community regularly calls out the lying "scum media"?  

But wait there's more! 


The leftist lockstep media continues to ramp up their false reporting on the state of the climate, while ignoring the elephant in the room, climate geoengineering.   
Related: Europe’s “48°C Horror That Never Was”…ESA, Media Sharply Criticized For Manipulative Reporting reddit.com 


I'm not denying that the climate is indeed collapsing, but the lame stream media is pushing a political agenda, and to win over more converts into their climate cult.   

End Rant 

Getting to today's market update, and the charts 

No doubt the Fed is once again going to give Wall Street what it wants today, clarity.  

The thing to watch is for a washout on the $VIX to a new recent low, where the powers that be will no doubt be loading up on longer term Put options.

I can't predict if that will happen today, or if it will be delayed, but  I have downside $VIX targets already lined up and ready to go, and I'll be happy to share that information, and much more, for a $99 donation to my paypal - linked in the side menu. 

Speaking of the $VIX - be sure to catch yesterday's update, in which I identify the latest historic move on the $VIX. 

I remain bearish, and even more so than I was a few weeks ago, when I warned subscribers to my weekly newsletter that, "the market is looking awfully toppy", and now that the Dow has taken out my upside target, It's looking even worse. 

I believe we could easily be looking at a 5000 point correction, after the silliness we just witnessed over the summer. 

Take Care, 
AA  





 


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Tuesday, July 25, 2023

$VIX DOES SOMETHING IT HASN'T DONE SINCE 2015!

 Since CNBC likes to report a lot of fake stats (as I pointed out in yesterday's blog); I thought I'd reveal a real historic move we're seeing on the $VIX.

What is the $VIX? The VIX Index is a calculation designed to produce a measure of constant, 30-day expected volatility of the U.S. stock market Source CBOE.com 

The $VIX predicts future volatility, by monitoring the options market, but more and more the $VIX is continually beaten down on a daily, weekly, and monthly basis, in order to ensure that the bullish Options pay. Of course when the market is made up of 90% bulls, it's quite easy to overpower the bears, and especially during periods of light volume, as we've seen again this summer. 

Does this mean the $VIX is broken? In a way it does... but I prefer to call the $VIX rigged, in that it's continually broken, on purpose, yet it is also allowed to occasionally run; in order to cause panic selling, and reset the options market. 

For Example: Think back to the Trump crash (AKA the Covid Crash). The $VIX was allowed to run for exactly 1 month - from the end of  February OPEX, until March OPEX (precisely). Also notice the setup - seen on the chart below - for the previous 3 years. 


I'm convinced the whole crisis was staged in order to help get rid of Boris Johnson, and Donald Trump, just as 9/11 was used for nefarious purposes.

 See: Unusual Options Market Activity and the Terrorist Attacks of September 11, 2001. introduction jstor.org 

Jon Najarian is mentioned in the above article, as a someone who concluded - from the trading activity - that someone knew that 9/11 was going to occur.  

I wasn't actively trading during the time of 9/11, but it's a fascinating study!  

$VIX DOES SOMETHING IT HASN'T DONE SINCE 2011! 

$VIX - Monthly Candlestick Chart - 16 year view - The $VIX continues to trade below the 48 level for the longest run since 2015. 


Yesterday, I incorrectly stated on twitter that the $VIX had stayed below 50, for the same length of time, but on closer inspection, 48 was the actual pivot in 2011.

If you look at even longer historical $VIX charts 45 was the magic number, but it seems that over the more recent past higher levels of volatility have become the norm. We're also seeing a crisis that requires larger amounts of liquidity to reflate the bubble, and we seem to be overdue for one. 

No doubt the $VIX will once again be allowed to break above the 48 level, but if history is a guide, it may not be until early next year, in 2024. 

Market Update: 

Turns out the long awaited $NDX rebalance was much to do about nothing! 
 

This morning we see money flow back into the tech sector. I saw this coming a mile away. 

  

Take care, 

AA 



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Monday, July 24, 2023

Market weakness continues ahead of Wednesday's FOMC announcement

Market weakness continues ahead of Wednesday's FOMC announcement 

Firstly after reviewing last weeks market action:

Regardless of what the lame stream media reported about Thursday's sell-off being due to News out of Taiwan Semiconductor; the selling wasn't limited to Semiconductors. There was heavy selling across several sectors, including consumer discretionary, AI, and even Home Builders.

I assume they were lying in order to try to save the rally on the Dow, but who knows what their real motivation is?    

Of course, CNBC lies in order to try to make the latest move on the Dow Jones index sound like a historic event. 

Dow ekes out narrow gain Friday for 10th straight positive day, longest rally since 2017: Live updates CNBC

$INDU - the chart doesn't lie. There is nothing historic about the latest 2 week rally on the Dow. 


This - constant lying - explains why so few Americans trust the mainstream media.  

Wrapping up last week: Friday's close looked weak, but there was practically no change at the end of the day. The action was boring, which is exactly what you would expect over the dog days of summer, and even the overly hyped Dow index, ended about flat.

You could say, "stocks were pinned on weekly OPEX". 

The weakness may have been due to an adjustment in the weekly options market, or part of the rebalancing - in the Nasdaq 100 - we've been waiting for for nearly a month now. 

Why do the powers that be wait until now - to do a $NDX rebalance - after FAANG stocks have lead the entire market for the past 20 years?  

Another reason for the weakness is that investors are trying to raise some cash, ahead of the next FOMC announcement on Wed. I know that for a fact!  

This morning futures continue to look week, but off of the Friday morning lows. 

Looking ahead to Wednesday's FOMC Announcement   

Wed is also a big earnings day with Chipotle, and Meta reporting. 

$SPOT is another name to watch 


I have a whole list of stocks to watch, but I'm already out of time. 

Good luck, 

AA 


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Friday, July 21, 2023

Looking Back At Yesterday's Sell-off In Tech

 Looking Back At Yesterday's Sell-off 

The aftermath is still being felt this morning: 

European stocks fall as tech sell-off sends jitters through market ft.com

Funny, I was just blogging yesterday 

 THE DASH FOR TRASH CONTINUES... BUT FOR HOW LONG?



In fact I've been reporting on this, "sick market" (which can't seem to find a healthy pullback), for some time now - for the past 32 days to be exact. 

Just before yesterday's open:
So, it's no surprise to finally see the rug pulled on the tech sector, as well as the $RUT, and $AARK, among other trash sectors.   

Nobody has a better handle on markets than I do, and when I start alerting to an overbought condition, and blow-off tops - in certain sectors - it's time to start paying attention! 

 July 19th - 2 days ago

$WEBL leveraged Dow Internet bull ETF - 
$AARK - 

July 18th  - 1 day earlier 

Funny, did anyone notice how the powers that be decided to parade Kathy Wood across our television screens, just before they decided to pull the rug out? I did! 

I can confirm that this was a rug pulled, and that's why the lame stream media had trouble finding the words to explain the sell-off. 

It wasn't until 8PM yesterday evening that Bloomberg started reporting that it had something to do with Taiwan Semiconductor; something I identified nearly 12 hours earlier. 
Another possible catalyst would be the fact that we are closer than ever to war with China, and Kissinger even made a surprise trip over there, but that goes mostly unreported.



Meanwhile, Bloomberg is busy reporting bread and circus: Barbie vs Oppenheimer in theaters this weekend.

This is a good example of just how worthless the lame stream media is, and why I spend so much time mocking it.   

The Dow Rallies 

We've seen this trend taking place for how many years now? Nasdaq up, Dow down; Nasdaq down, energy up; $SPX flat, Tech rallies; Tech down; Financials rally; Market pull-back on a low $VIX.    

Anyone who has been trading for more than 10 years, knows this isn't normal market action! It's choreographed nonsense, and it's no wonder the lame stream media has to bend over backwards to try to explain it! 

End Rant  

This morning we see idiot investors piling back into tech stocks, and that is to be expected. 

As I said yesterday:  

"I guess we'll know it when we see it, but even a pullback to support, is going to look like an overbought condition, at this point. 

In other words, even if the market was to give back a week's worth of gains, in 2 day's it wouldn't even signal a bearish reversal."  

For now most of the damage has been limited to the most overbought areas of the market, but if the selling continues, we're bound to see contagion. 

$SPX 5 min. chart - This is nothing; yesterday's sell-off didn't even break a 5 min. chart. 



Take Care, AA 






 
 
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Thursday, July 20, 2023

The Dash For Trash Continues... BUT For How Long?

 The Dash For Trash Continues... BUT For How Long? 

This is one of the things I was talking about yesterday. The massive moves we see in after hours trading... 

Case in point: Carvana up 38% 

I wonder if one of the big banks put Carvana execs up to this, or did they come up with the timing of this announcement on their own? 

Speaking of timing: Tomorrow is Options Expiration, and that explains why you're not likely going to see a whole lot of movement in stocks, between now, and Friday's close.  

Speaking of OPEX. Manipulation of the Options market, should've definitely be in the top 5 of Everything That's Wrong With This Market (as I blogged yesterday)  

Case in point: 

Tesla $TSLA closes in on the $300 strike price: 

If you remember, I've remained bullish Tesla for some time, and even called for the short sellers to be trapped back in June 

Am I including Tesla in the "Dash Fo Trash" category? Of course..! 

This rally has been all about squeezing the short sellers, many of whom remain underwater in their trades since May. 

Wall Street dirty tricksters love this - dash fo trash - trade

Even Guy Adami, on yesterday's show, was pointing to a gap target that was left behind in Jan., 2021    


Anyone who is subscribed to the Newsletter, knows I've been pointing at gap targets for months.

Of course I under-estimated the length and duration of this rally, and this morning we see small caps continue to run in a risk-off environment. 

The Dash For Trash Continues... BUT For How Long? 

I thought we were supposed to see a rebalancing in July, but that didn't happen. 

I'm thinking this market will continue to hold up into tomorrow's close, like I said, and since nobody is going to want to be short going into the weekend - ahead of the next FOMC announcement - there's a good chance that the rats will jump ship, and pull the rug out Sunday night - futures. 

If that doesn't happen, then the next opportunity to sell would be Technical Tuesday.

The FOMC could be used as a sell the news event, but that's highly unlikely. 

Other dates to watch: 

A full moon Tuesday August 1st - could mark the end of a sell-off.   

A Summer Banking Holidays in Europe  

August OPEX comes early on the 18th. - could MARK the end of a pullback, and another opportunity to squeeze the short sellers into the next holiday.    

Sept. 4th, Labor Day Weekend 

Sept 11th, Money must be put to work.

Monday, Sept. 15th, another early OPEX.

Rosh Hashana 

As you can see the windows for a sell-off are awfully short  

Sept. 20th, there's another FOMC Announcement 

I guess we'll know it when we see it, but even a pullback to support, is going to look like an overbought condition, at this point. 

In other words, even if the market was to give back a week's worth of gains, in 2 day's it wouldn't even signal a bearish reversal. 

Good luck, 

AA 

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Wednesday, July 19, 2023

Everything that's wrong with this Market

 Be sure to catch yesterday's 2 (count 'em) 2 market updates; the second of which included updated Dow, and $SPY charts.    

Everything that's wrong with this rigged Stock Market

I could easily do a top 10 things that are wrong with this market, but let's try to keep it to 5....  

1. Cryptocurrency - The ridiculous crypto currency market is a perfect example of everything that's wrong with this market, and proves that valuation is not an indication of real value. Crypto is worth whatever someone is willing to pay for it, and estimates range from 0, to $1 million, depending on who you talk to. Crypto has become just one more sector to pump and dump. 

Speaking of Crypto

I recently called Bitcoin a sell, as it continued to retest the top of the range it's been trading in for the past several months, and today we see it trading back near the bottom of the range. 



Most everything - except tech & trash -seems to be trading in a similar pattern - a topic for another day  

2. Foreign Investors 

I think allowing foreign investors to drive US equities is a recipe for disaster. 

Do we really want to rely on the Saudis and China for future earnings growth? This seems to be a conflict of interest, when national security runs counter to investment strategy. 

When Global Markets collapse you're going to see forced selling of US assets, and the Fed has been forced to bailout foreign entities, more than once. 

3. Corrupt Financial Institutions Run The Table

Just Yesterday: Deutsche Bank Draws Fresh ECB Scrutiny Over FX Sales

How many times have the banks been caught red handed... and all they receive is a slap on the wrist? 

Of course the powers that be go easy on the banksters, because they have campaigns to finance. Politicians know where their bread and butter comes from. 

Related 

Hillary Clinton Struggles to Explain $600K in Goldman Sachs Speaking Fees (many sources) 



4. Upgrades, Downgrades, and Rumor, all being reported in real time. 

You can also add to that the endless media hype, and Earnings, reported in after hours trading. Whose brilliant idea was this? I suspect whoever likes driving stocks in 10% increments, on light volume, is behind it, and the AI which makes Options trades in milliseconds. 




5. Insider Trading by Government Insiders Continues 

78 members of Congress caught violating law on stock trades businessinsider.com 

Fed Restrictions on Employee Stock Trading Not Strict Enough, Says Watchdog WSJ 


In short, the whole system is corrupt, including the corporate owned lame stream media that covers it.

Market Update: 

I don't like energy here, and I tweeted that yesterday.  
Goldman Sachs just reported lackluster earnings, but we're not going to see any panic selling, until the appropriate time. I can't say when that's going to be, but take a look at what just happened to bitcoin. The short sellers were shaken out above the 31k level, before it was dumped. 

I would either sell into strength, or just wait until you see panic return to the market. 

In the meantime: Watching the Dow 35k level

Take Care, AA


  

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Tuesday, July 18, 2023

Market Update Monday Afternoon 7/18/2023 - Market Continues To Chug Along On Lack Luster Bank Earnings

 I'm kind of surprised to see this rally continue today, but it looks like the manipulators have their sights on some higher targets. Dow 15,000 is within reach.  

Dow broke out to a new 1 year high this morning:

That caused me to have to rework the EW count on half my dow charts.  

 Funny how the Biden loving lame stream media - at CNBC - was seen rooting for the Dow ahead of the breakout. Think this wasn't orchestrated a couple weeks ago? 

Technically the breakout on the Dow rules out a bearish wave 2, but it doesn't rule out several other bearish patterns, and if you chart the Transports, you'll find that Dow Theory confirms that this 9 month old rally is bearish consolidation. Sorry, but I can't reveal that chart.  

Of course the $SPX and SPY are also higher. 

$SPY channel  Looks like another false breakout, and this has become the norm lately.



$MSFT Microsoft breaks out to a slightly higher all time high. Watch for a sharp reversal on that one. 



Perhaps the market is celebrating the latest fake Trump indictment? 

Trump says he’s received a target letter from special counsel Jack Smith’s Jan. 6 investigators


Anyhow, rigged markets on light summer volume can't last forever, and I think this one will be over, sooner, rather than later. 

Take care, AA 


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Market Update Monday 7/18/2023 - Market Continues To Chug Along On Lack Luster Bank Earnings

 Yesterday, markets continued to rally on Mutual Fund Monday, as predicted.... 

Tweeted @ Friday's close 

Mutual fund Monday, may be followed by a technical Tuesday (today) as buyers dry up. 

We're still trading on extremely light summer volume, so the market could just continue to chug along, as some are predicting. 

'I don't see why people are going to sell their stocks.' 'Big Short' investor Steve Eisman says stocks will keep rallying as long as the economy stays healthy businessinsider.com

That's exactly the kind of story you want to see reported at a market top! 

Everyone, even the so-called Big Short, is bullish, so I'm looking for a swift correction, and we haven't  seen a "healthy" correction in several months. 

Is the economy really "healthy"? 

Look, if Janet Yellen needs to come on Bloomberg to tell us how healthy the US economy is, then I'm going to take the contrarian view!

The real reason for Yellen's trip to China, just ahead of the G-20? 

 

1. Yellen’s trip (likely) motivated by US debt issue; Washington needs more sincere moves in fixing US-China ties globaltimes

Nothing to see here; everything is fine!  

2. Debt Crisis Facing Developing Countries on G20 Finance Meet Agenda VOANews



Getting back to China

HSBC (The Hongkong & Shanghai Banking Corporation LTD) is totally overbought, after bailing out the European banking sector. $HSBC trades at new highs. See the 20 day moving average.




Watch the moving averages 

$COMPQ  Nasdaq has also been strategically bought at the 20 day ma., ever since May (short covering season). I've also highlighted exactly where the latest leg of this rally was engineered (rigged). 

I forget exactly what the catalyst for the latest move was, but I think it was forcing money managers to chase tech, after the 4th of July holiday - if memory serves. 

I believe markets have gotten ahead of themselves, with all the buying of the st moving averages, and my sentiment indicators are flashing red, so I'm looking forward to at least a short term correction.  

Longer term outlook 

Greed has been driving this market since the covid bailouts, and we can't get back to normal trading, until we see genuine bullish capitulation, like we saw when the liquidity bubble burst in '08.   

Good luck, AA 



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Monday, July 17, 2023

Weekly Wrap-up & Look Ahead - Can the Tech rally continue...?

We got a nice pop on $UNH (United Health) on Friday - running to a new 1 months high, and closing up 7.24%. That was an easy call, but I'm less interested in stock picking, than finding the next sector rotation. This is a tough one, now that the powers that be are trying to drive the Dow. 

CNBC even went out of their way to publish a fake headline which I promptly called out on Twitter: : 

Speaking of Earnings 

Big Bank earnings met expectations, and while that wasn't enough to rally financials, it was a good excuse to rally Tech stocks higher.

It suddenly occurred to me over the weekend that this tech led rally is no different than the last one (at the end of 2021). 

A little history: 

Tech has been the pump 'n' dump sector of choice, since 1995. 

1.  The notorious “dot-com” bubble—also known as the tech boom or internet bubble—was a period from about 1995 to about 2001 (source thestreet.com). 

2. Tech led the rally in '08.

3. Tech led the covid money printing spree of 2020- (early) 21, along with a commodities bubble, and a speculative rally in crypto, among other things.  

4. Tech stocks led - and continue to lead - the Oct 2022 rally, into the present. 

Whatever the news is, it's used as an excuse to drive the tech bubble, and bubbles tend to continue longer than anyone would expect... 

Can the Tech rally continue...?  

I suspect this tech rally will continue into Oct. of this year, and probably even into the end of 2023, and for the same reason tech held up into the end of 2021. 

The #1 reason I expect this Tech rally to continue

The #1 reason I expect this Tech rally to continue, even after we get a pullback, is the same reason we saw tech stocks propped up into the end of 2021, and here's the reason. 

Short Term Capital Gains vs Long Term Capital Gains 

 "If you hold investments in the account for over a year, you'll pay the more favorable long-term capital gains rate: 0%, 15%, or 20%, depending on your tax bracket. If you hold an investment for a year or less, it will be subject to short-term capital gains. This is the same as your ordinary income tax bracket." (source investopedia) 

Since this rally was planned well ahead of time, and most of the money which fueled this rally was put to work between Oct. 2022, and the beginning of 2023, the powers that be aren't going to take profits until at least a year has passed. 

The #2 reason the powers that be aren't going to sell this market, is in order to attempt to help Joe Biden, and the deep state, defeat Donald Trump in the next presidential election. 

In case you haven't noticed, every Trump news flash is a negative story, while every Biden news flash is positive, and especially when it comes to the economy. 

Speak of the Devil

Take care, AA 

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Friday, July 14, 2023

Weekly OPEX Friday - Ahead of Bank Earnings

 This market is sick 

Even the traders on Fast Money don't have anything bullish to say about it. I've never seen Tim Seymour bearish, but his opinion on PepsiCo earnings, was to "short the stock". 

In fact, by the looks on their faces, they're already short, and not amused by the recent market action. 

The host of Fast Money asked, "what do you think of this market", and the guest tried to say that Money Managers were underweight equities, going into the beginning of the year, and being forced to chase performance. 

I think that's hogwash!  

The only investors chasing performance, at these levels, is retail. 

Of course, I think some clever traders have helped drive equities higher - on low summer volume - but only in order to set the bull trap. 

Here's a prediction: Watch for the market to give back all the gains of the past few weeks, within the next 30 days. Then watch the smart money put to work; once the dust settles. 

 Earnings season continues 

Earnings season basically kicks off today with financials. $JPM, $C, $WFC, $BLK, and $SST. 

 $UNH (United Health) - an important Dow component - also reports today. You can bet that one will be up, after the little pullback (setup) we've seen. This would be a good Options bet - in a defensive sector - btw. 

Getting back to financials 

1. As dumb as this market is; I suppose we will see the shorts squeeze again - on this Friday, but  

I wouldn't own any financials, after the run they've already had. 

2. Wall Street has managed to ignore the most recent financial crisis, as if we no longer need a healthy banking sector, but money managers are forced to invest in the financial sector, nonetheless. 

$JPM  is the one to watch - trading in a bearish upturned triangle. Gap (fill) target $160.  



Tweeted 

Bank earnings are already out, so I'm going to wrap up this update, and work on the -

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Take Care, AA 



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Thursday, July 13, 2023

Dow Rally Fizzles - NASDAQ rally led by $META, Gold Miners, Bitcoin ALERT

 Looking back at yesterday's surge on an apparently better than expected CPI number? 

Considering the fact that the only reason that - backward looking - indicator came in lower than expected, is because fuel prices have come down, from a year ago. 

Looks like this was just a reason to buy some news, and squeeze the retail short sellers.

More on yesterday's CPI data 

To be honest, I don't trust any numbers coming out of this administration, since every trick in the book is going to be used to make the Biden crime family look good. 

Biden Says The Economy’s Doing Great. Lots Of His Own Voters Don’t Believe Him. many sources/ fivethirtyeight.com

2 days ago: before the latest PMI data 


2 weeks ago



Seeing a trend here?! 

The other thing that's helping to lift markets 

As I mentioned yesterday, "Earnings"

This explains why we saw gold miners continue to rally on a weak CPI number. 
The Dow (covered yesterday)

Yesterday's rally on the DOW faded, at the slightest resistance. 





Instead, traders piled into tech again.




PepsiCo beat expectations today, and that's going to help the Dow 

Something to watch:

Bitcoin! 

I can hardly believe Bitcoin has retested the high I called a few months back, but the price action still looks weak. 


Set your stop above the 31k level 

 

Bitcoin Options Traders Shrug Off Post-CPI Choppy Price Action coindesk.com 


To wrap things up; keep an eye on companies who are set to report next week, ahead of July OPEX, and you'll see why certain stocks/ sectors have been rallying.

Take Care, AA 

 

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