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Friday, August 25, 2023

Looking at Yesterdays Bearish Engulfing Pattern

 Looks like Wall Street took my lead - to raise some cash - ahead of Jackson Hole. See yesterday's update.

Looking at Yesterdays Bearish Engulfing Pattern

A bearish engulfing pattern produces the strongest signal when it appears at the end of an uptrend. The pattern is created by interpreting the data of two completed candles - dailyfx.com 

You should already know; yesterday's 1 day reversal, did not occur at the end of an uptrend, and doesn't even qualify as a bearish engulfing pattern, but this is the kind of nonsense you see the trolls peddling on Twitter.  

 The market was sold at resistance, at the 50 day moving average; exactly what we were watching at yesterday's open. 

That was one hell-of-a one day reversal, but I'm still only looking for a pullback, in most markets. 

$SPX - daily candlestick chart - 50 day moving average was sold out of the gate. 


$NYFANG (for example) - I obviously haven't updated this chart for a while but - same thing - sold at the 50 day ma.  

Same goes for the Nasdaq, and the $NDX; the technicals could not be clearer.

But you also had a Fibonacci target on the Tech chart being sold 

I alerted to all this in my Twitter feed around 9:30AM CST 
You can also find clear resistance on the NASDAQ, if you know where to look,
and the Russell 2000 continues to whipsaw in a range. That's the wave b pullback I blogged about yesterday. 

Thankfully I had already sold tech... as I mentioned in yesterday's blog.

Funny, all the networks claim to know something about technicals, yet I never once saw anyone point to the obvious sell signal. Perhaps they were too busy searching the internet for Trump's mugshot? 

That's the mass distraction lame stream media for you! 

Here's my take on yesterday's sell-off 

Some hedge funds returned from their summer break early, in order to try to shake the weak hands, on light summer volume, because they don't want to be forced to chase a summer rally. 

Who else would be taking retail down, only a few months ahead of the holiday shopping season? 

Eventually these hedge funds will be forced to put money to work, and probably sooner, rather than later.    

Yesterday's shakeout looks like a bear raid, based on ridiculously obvious sell signals, just ahead of Q3 window dressing. This is business as usual, on Wall Street.

I was hoping to move to cash ahead of my vacation which begins at today's market close, and probably won't end until the week after Labor Day, but when opportunity comes knocking, money has to be put to work. 

I caught a nice rip in Natural Gas yesterday, and I see Oil up this morning. 


China 

Looks like Goldman Sachs is short Asia/China according to their latest press release downgrade.

Goldman Cuts China Stock Targets on Renewed Property Concerns yahoo.com 


There's usually a trade somewhere, whether it be in Oil, Energy Equities, Tech Stocks, crypto, or whatever the latest craze is. You just have to know where to look.

Jackson Hole: Will Powell crush the  AI rally? After all Stock Market bubbles tend to fuel inflation. 

Don't count on it. Money has to go somewhere, and since it's not going into the housing market, it's most likely going to be put to work in equities.  

Take Care, AA 




ss 


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Thursday, August 24, 2023

Market Update Thursday August 8th - What a difference a day makes!

 What a difference a day makes! 


NVIDIA/ AI hysteria persists 

I wonder what the options action on $NVDA looks like; I bet the $500 calls are rigged to pay; nice even number target; just seems so obvious; in hindsight!     

I don't know what kind of idiot buys Semiconductor stocks up here, but I like to buy low, and sell high. If I were an options trader, I might think differently. Buy high, sell higher?  

 But it's not just NVIDIA driving the latest rally. Semi's typically lead tech, as they've been doing all week 

$SOX - started rallying no sooner than the controllers got paid on their bearish bets (August OPEX). Trades into a powerful wave C, assuming the pullback in wave "B" is complete. 
 

Let's Look At What Else Is Driving This Rally 

It seems like we've been waiting for more than a week, for a decent trade and finally saw some decisive action yesterday. 

1. Gold finally broke out above the $1900 level - and I caught a nice 11% move in one of the leveraged gold miner ETFs. Cha-Ching! 

I could tell you exactly how the controllers engineered this trade, but then I'd be giving away, way to much.    

2. Oil tumbled, as I had predicted - in a tweet I sent out to Goldman Sachs - a day earlier - Cha-Ching! 

Of course this looks like the same sector rotation trade, that we've been tracking for over 2 years; out of energy, and back into Tech, and vice versa.  

Speaking of Tech 

3. China continues to lead the tech rally. 



It was definitely the best trading day for me, for the Month, and a good excuse to move into cash, ahead of Jackson Hole (uncertainty), and a much needed vacation. 

Getting back to the tech rally: It looks like I took profits on the Tech long trade a little early, but at least I was smart enough to see it coming, and not to go short. 

Looking at the Charts 


Nasdaq (tech stocks) looks like a typical wave A, or wave 1 (impulse), which is a trade few traders believe in, because that's the psychology of a wave 1 (or A) - the first leg up in a reversal.

$COMPQ - I can show you this chart, because I have no skin in the game. Support is going to become the 50 day moving average, but more importantly that breakout is going to trigger program buying. 




I think what were also seeing is another short squeeze ahead of the Labor Day holiday, which is only a couple weeks away, and in what sector is this short squeeze taking place? Technology, of course! This has been the trend for the past 15 years, so don't expect it to come to an abrupt end anytime soon! 

This has all the classic signs of short squeeze. Light volume, ahead of another holiday. Sector rotation out of energy, and back into tech. China is leading... 

Remember what I said earlier in the week about not putting all your eggs in one basket? I wouldn't be chasing the tech bubble for all the tea in China, but this is the only sector that seems to be performing, and money managers are going to be forced to chase performance. I mention that, because window dressing season is coming up, and money managers have to show that they are fully vested in the so-called "AI boom".  

To wrap it up: 

 This looks like an impulse wave, and just the beginning of a larger snapback rally, after 1 months worth of selling, which predictably came to an end on August Options Expiration, we're seeing a rally, which will likely take a few more weeks to wrap up. 

It's too early to find a pullback pattern, and pullback patterns in wave b, aren't easy to predict. 

 Watch for the $SPX to test the 50 day moving average, but beyond that I'm not sure what to expect. 

Good luck, AA 


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Wednesday, August 23, 2023

Market Update Hump Day 8/23/23

 No change since yesterday, really: 

$SPX futures are obviously being held above the psychologically significant 4300 level. That's pretty easy to do, on such light volume. In fact it's about as easy as running tech stocks up on light summer volume, and then holding the sector up, into Sept. 

The $NDX topped out, and reversed, as expected. Maybe we chop around in a range, ahead of Jackson hole? 


China 

China continues to bounce off the recent lows, with no real explanation from the lying lame stream media. 

I did find a story about, "some traders talking about 1 oversold technical indicator, but with no evidence offered - unless you pay... sounds like a scam to me. 

What do you expect from Bloomberg? 

The lame stream media; instead of focusing on reality, points to a retest of the highs in shares of NVIDIA $NVDA, and they continue to sell it as an AI boom.

Meanwhile: Several retailers are seen crashing 

Dick’s Sporting Goods Blames Earnings Slump On Theft—Joining Other Major Retailers forbes.com 



US Home Purchase Applications Hit Lowest Since 1995 on Rate Rise yahoo.com 

Of course the market could take all the above and turn it into a bullish narrative, because there is no doubt that the Fed will soon be lowering interest rates, and may pivot as soon as this week, at Jackson Hole. 

I've barely had time to scratch the surface this morning, but I have added a link to my longer term outlook - which I provided on Monday - in the left hand side menu. 

Add to that the fact that the bullish trend that we were watching in June, is broken. 



 Take Care, 

AA 


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Tuesday, August 22, 2023

Market Update Technical Tuesday

 Funny, Yesterday we were looking at a technical target of the China Hang Seng, and then last night I saw Bloomberg Asia talking about a possible, "technical bounce" on the Hang Seng - after what they're calling a "route" - and that's exactly what we saw overnight.  

I suppose the hedge funds - behind the scenes at Bloomberg - are seeing the same thing I'm seeing, but they could at least give credit where credit is due. 

Word of warning; don't just go piling into China. Wait for an overshoot (shakeout), beyond the target. 

$HSI China - 30 min chart - simple bearish channel 



Speaking of overshoots: 

Tech continues to rally, and for no other reason than it was oversold, as I pointed out on Friday, plus Options Expiration Friday had passed, so the rats who control this market are allowing tech to run - as I alluded to yesterday. I would not be in a hurry to chase tech anymore than I'd be rushing in to buy Chinese equities. 

As I've pointed out in previous blogs; China leads tech, and that's exactly what we've seen over the past few weeks. 

$NDX - 60 min. chart - I'll be watching for this suspected suckers rally in Tech to top out today 

It's possible that tech continues to bounce out of its oversold condition, but I don't like the low volume, or the gap that was left behind yesterday.  

Take Care, 

AA





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Monday, August 21, 2023

Weekly Wrap-up and a look ahead $SPX China Nasdaq

The biggest thing I noticed on August Expiration Friday - besides the bearish reversal on the $VIX - was the bullish reversal on the Russell 2000.  


Most everything else I'm watching remained pretty much pinned throughout the day, on Friday, which confirms what I was saying last week; the market remains totally rigged according to Option Expiration dates. 

I can't say that I have a good handle on the broader market, but only because I don't spend a lot of time charting it. I have bigger fish to fry. 

$SPX - without revealing the chart I would say, watch for the S&P to build a base around the 4300 level. 

The Nasdaq 

$NDX (60 min chart view) It looks like it's going to be allowed to bounce out of the hole this morning, but the trend remains lower, and I wouldn't be surprised to see the selling continue into Jackson Hole. 


As I said earlier in the month


Watching China closely

This is where we've seen most of the selling, and at some point that's where we're going to see the biggest gains. 

Remember when Morgan Stanley upgraded China right at the end of 2022?  Now, 8 months later now, the idiots downgrade China 

Morgan Stanley upgrades India to 'overweight', downgrades China 

Never trust the international banksters! 

Heng Seng -

I like China right here, on a pullback to the key Fibonacci target, at the lower end of the range! 

 


I'm watching several other sectors including gold, and it's always good to be diversified, whether you're long, or short. 

孤注一掷 – gÅ« zhù yÄ« zhì – “To concentrate one’s strength and resources on one thing” blogs.transparent.com

Translation: He who puts all his eggs in one basket, may end up with yolk on face!  

I'm outta time, 

AA 


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Friday, August 18, 2023

Bordering on Financial Terrorism + Safe Haven Gold?

I'll be exposing the financial terrorism mentioned in the title of this blog, in a moment, but first things first: 

Market Update 

Here we are; the day we've all been waiting for: August OPEX (options expiration)! 

All market manipulation revolves around these Options Expiration Dates, and today should be no different! 

$SPX - spotted a possible bearish upside target this morning. 


Jackson Hole is just around the corner, and I think there is a good possibility that Powell turns dovish - removing any possibility of a Sept. rate hike. 

We're seeing a little more weakness this morning, but most of the charts are broken, everything is becoming short term oversold, and OPEX dates are prime time for market bottoms.  

I'm a believer in broken support, as much as I am a believer in overbought fake breakouts - like the one we just saw in July - so we could become even more oversold, and especially at today's open. 

I do see a slightly higher $VIX target, but unless Energy is going to join the party, I don't see how the short sellers are going to trigger more selling. 

Should be an interesting OPEX Friday 

China 

I covered China again in yesterday's blog, and I even saw someone on CNBC tweeting about it this morning. Fanning the flames. 

CNBC finally points to China 
Speaking of CNBC 

Bordering on Financial Terrorism

Bitcoin CRASH? Using the term crash in a market environment like this is tantamount to yelling fire in a crowded movie theater, but CNBC has skin in the game. 



Notice how they didn't call the recent banking collapse a flashcrash? No, not on Joe Biden's watch. 

Bitcoin - some clever people pulled the rug on bitcoin this morning. 


For disclosure; I have no financial interest in Bitcoin, and I've pretty much given up on crypto currency, which looks to me like just another Wall Street scam/ investment, but I don't enjoy seeing investors being victimized.     

Safe haven gold?  




Looks like the crooks just shook out some folks, below the 200 day ma... this morning we see gold up, which tells me they are already loading the truck, and preparing to drive away. Watch the 50 day... 

 
Could it be that they sold bitcoin, in order to buy the only true alternative currency, Gold? 


I'm not crazy about the downturned wedge pattern, but it could be a good trade nonetheless. 

Take care, 
AA 
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Thursday, August 17, 2023

China China China

 I had started working on an update yesterday morning, but caught up updating some sector charts, and ran out of time. 

China & Energy 

China, and Energy weighed heavily on global markets yesterday, and just in time for August Options Expiration, tomorrow (Friday). Funny, how that works. See my prediction for the timing on this sell-off blogged on Monday August 7th.   

Of course, I've been anticipating a trade in energy, and I called it out on Twitter around mid morning. 

What we saw next was a perfect mid-day reversal, and by the close Oil was seen making new recent lows. 

I apparently wasn't the only one who saw this trade coming: 

This morning we see Oil bouncing out of the hole, from a slightly oversold condition. 

China China China 

The catalyst for the selling was the continued bad news coming out of China. 

1. August 8th 

China's car sales fall for 2nd month in July as price war ... reuters.co




2. China property collapse and risk of contagion 



3. 

China reportedly told state banks to escalate yuan intervention this week forexlive.com

It wasn't until this morning that Bloomberg actually started reporting the China currency intervention story, instead - up to this point - opting to blame yesterday's release of the fed minutes for yesterday's wash out. Hogwash! 

Why does Bloomberg wait until this morning to point at China? I suspect it's because once the cat is out of the bag, the mass distraction media is forced to report the truth, for a change. Perhaps if they wasted less time celebrating the latest Trump indictment, they could focus more on the real news, but I doubt it.

Of course, when a real crisis comes you can expect the lame stream media not to report it on Joe Biden's watch, so it's always best to trust the charts.  

Speaking of the charts: 

$SPY 60 min. view: Looks like we finally saw a decent washout. Res. becomes the 200 ma. 



Take care, 

AA 



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Tuesday, August 15, 2023

Looking Back At Monday's Market Action

 Looking Back At Monday's Market Action 

Looked like your typical Mutual Fund (buying) Monday, but on steroids!  

News helped move markets  

Hedge Funds Add Meta, Apple on Tech Rally, Cut Alibaba: 13F Wrap yahoo.com


Calling this the copycat trade, which is not any different than the buffet effect. 

Monkey see; monkey do! 

Speaking of  Monkeys 



CNBC fast money monkeys were bearish $NVDA and Semis on Friday, and no sooner than they start predicting a "10% correction..." NVIDIA rallies 7%. Boom! 

 One of the biggest moves we saw yesterday was in $SOX - up nearly 3%!  

Like I said in this weeks weekly Newsletter, you should always do the opposite of whatever CNBC fast monkeys are predicting!

I called out the long Tech trade on Thursday: 


$FNGD - I like to use the bear ETF's when charting leveraged funds. 


It wasn't a great call, but I'll take it. The market action still generally sucks. 

I'm not too sure that yesterday's rally has legs. 

I was  hoping to find a trade in energy, but it just seems to retest the high every day, just as the rest of the market continues to retest the lows. 

Speaking of new lows

We saw a shakeout to the 50 day moving average, on the Russell, yesterday, however we still have not seen the 50 day on the $SPX taken out. 

There's still more work to do, I'm afraid, and seeing $SPX futures down again this morning.   

For my expanded outlook; see yesterday's update (linked) 

Take Care, 
AA  

 

sss


 
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Monday, August 14, 2023

Weekly Wrap-up & A Look At The Weeks Ahead

Market continues to try to build a base

We saw a little more weakness on Friday, but this sell-off has been pretty drab. I don't know who has the patience to sell every rally to a slightly lower low, but I sure don't.  

This is the typical boring action you expect to see during the summer doldrums. 

What's not typical is to see the market pull back on such a low $VIX, but this is starting to look like the new normal. Sell the market in tiny increments, in order to prevent the $VIX from spiking; in order to keep downside momentum to a minimum; to keep program selling from kicking in.  

I remember CNBC traders calling this - pullback on a muted $VIX - trade out; seems like about a year ago, and at the time I thought that was the stupidest thing I had ever heard, but as it turns out they must have been clued in to what the new game plan was going to be. Walk the market up/or down on low volatility.   

I think it was just after that time - when Fast Money traders made that call - that we saw volatility spike to 30, after several Banks failures, but it was only a few days before the $VIX was being hammered below 20 again. 

Of course eventually we'll see some real fear in the market, and the $VIX will be allowed to run, but as I predicted weeks ago, I don't believe the $VIX is going to get back above 20, any time soon.  

As I predicted August 2nd: 

Regardless of all the negative news, and selling overseas; even if we see a pullback this week; I don't believe the $VIX can even break above the 20 level.

The Fix Is In  

In order to ensure that stocks continue to hold up into the end of 2023, Government Sachs even released a statement - over the weekend - predicting that Fed rate cuts are coming!  

 Short Term 

The broader market continues to try to build a base. I thought we saw that happen on Wed. but the plug was quickly pulled on the Thursday morning rally, and equities even managed to close a little lower on Friday (weekly OPEX).

We have an early Monthly (August) Options Expiration coming up, this Friday, so perhaps we see continued weakness heading into that date.    

We've basically seen the market consolidate a little lower, over the past Month, and the $SPX is still trading above the 50 day moving average. 

Once we see buyers return, I'm expecting to see a counter-trend rally - at least. 

Longer Term 

If we don't see a rally into August OPEX, then I think that sets up for an even more powerful rally, going into the Labor Day holiday, and Sept. OPEX.  

Next comes Sept. window dressing, as traders return from the summer break.  

Oct. Same thing: OPEX comes early (Oct 20th), and Columbus Day is a short week, ending on lucky Friday the 13th!  

Nov. brings with it another early Options Expiration, 1 week before thanksgiving. 

Dec. OPEX lands on the 15th. and the first day of Hanukkah (at sunset). 

 Take Care, AA  

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Thursday, August 10, 2023

Market futures rise ahead of CPI data - Buy the News; Sell the News?

 If you've turned on your TV this morning, you'll find the financial (fake news) outlets have the market fixated on another CPI data release this morning. 

 I suspect the number has already been leaked, but what's important is whether the news is bought, or sold. 

Buy The News; Sell The News?  

Over the past several months, all the news has been used as a buying opportunity, so I'm expecting that trend to continue. 

We're already seeing the tech junkies throwing in the towel on the AI story, as they continue to pile into energy, but this seems a little premature. 

What do the charts say? 

We've only seen a tiny pullback over the past few trading days, and unless you're watching a 15 minute chart, it's hard to even call this a bearish reversal. 

$SPX - 15 minute chart - looks like a bearish leading diagonal triangle. What that means is we're probably about to see a powerful snapback rally in wave b (or 2) - whatever the case may be. 

The first leg down  in a correction is always a move, nobody believes in, and so investors can't wait to buy the dip. That's what I'm predicting. A rally which probably continues into next week. 

There's also a good possibility that we see money flow out of energy, in order to raise the cash to force a little short squeeze in tech stocks. 

Natural Gas 

Of course most eyes are on natural gas - which we've seen up over 5% - for the second day in a row, but Bloomberg doesn't like that story, because it runs counter to the official narrative, that Joe Biden has helped to bring inflation down lol 

What does the chart say? 

That depends which charts you're looking at. 

I found yesterday, that the $UNG fund doesn't follow natural gas too well 

Even so, yesterday we saw the price action jacked above the previous high (7.83). 

That's the level to watch.  

$NG - There is the possibility that we see another retest of the top of the range, or even a throw-over, at, or above the 3.13 level. 



That's all the time I got,

AA  





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Wednesday, August 9, 2023

Market Update Wed. 8/9/23 - Gold, Tech Stocks, Energy

 Yesterday was better day trading than we've seen in a while, but I'm more interested in finding the next momentum trade, rather than honing in on tiny intraday moves. 

We finally got a decent shakeout in tech, and semiconductors, and a midday reversal in energy.   

9:00AM CST: Energy rallies off the lows: 

This was an easy call, because where ExxonMobil goes, energy is sure to follow; always watch $XOM

 I called that, the best trade of the day, and it was. 

Explains why the CNBC fast money crew was seen celebrating on last night's show.  

I re-affirmed this trend - 2 days ago:

Monday August 7th: Weekly Wrap-up, and a look ahead...

 As long as investors continue to panic out of tech stocks, they're going to continue to pile into energy stocks, but I'm afraid we're about to see a nasty sector rotation... 

I even like Semis here, after yesterday's little shakeout.

Of course this required a little false breakout on the $VIX, but that's about all the $VIX is good for anymore.  

I'm giving away a lot of valuable information, and I'm not finished yet! 

The $USD vs Gold 

After identifying the trend on the $USD, I think there's a good chance we see investors pile back into metals.  

Speaking of Joe Biden, and the globalist cabal

Reaffirming the globalist's motivation to take energy prices down: 

Updated 25 min ago

Lingering inflation worries keep Biden approval stagnant at 40%: Reuters/Ipsos poll reuters.com 

But wait there's more! 

World Bank halts new lending to Uganda over anti-LGBTQ law reuters.com


This is the agenda of the Marxist globalists: To destroy God, Family, and Country.  

Take Care, 
AA 





sss 

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Tuesday, August 8, 2023

AI Bubble Already at or "Near It's Peak" says Morgan Stanley

It was only a couple months ago, when a boom in AI technology spending was credited with a historic short squeeze in NVIDIA $NVDA shares, and now Morgan Stanley is already calling it a bubble? 
 

If Nvidia Is a Proxy for the AI Bubble, It’s Nearing Its Peak, Morgan Stanley Says yahoo.com


 Of course I've been pounding my fist on the table on this for several weeks, and I even called the recent reversal in AI stocks. Morgan Stanley is a little late to the party!  

$UBOT (2X leveraged AI BULL ETF) Too bad there isn't a bear ETF to match this fund! 

Judging by the volume on that chart, the AI pump began to take shape just before short covering ahead of the Memorial Day holiday, and that's really what this rally was all about. 

Of course once the hedge fund managers return from their summer homes, they're probably going to take this market back down, just as they drove it up, and I'm already seeing several micro-sectors crushed - for example Airlines.    

China Bubble Bursting 

China actually led this entire tech rally, with reports that the China reopening was going to lead a recovery. Then only a few weeks ago, Chinese stocks were once again being pumped, with talk of "stimulus"? Another fortune cookie crumbles. 




Energy and commodity prices falling 



Actually the bubble - after all the covid (excuse) spending -  is still unwinding. This is the price you pay for over-printing in order to try to avoid a recession. All the money printers have managed to do is to temporarily inflate prices; on everything from cars, to equities.  

Now comes deflation, and a natural wave of contraction, after an artificially created boom. 

When? 

 It seems like it takes several weeks for the powers that be to engineer a sell-off. 

Just look at how long it took for them to take Apple down. 

Speaking of Apple 

The lame stream media is trying to make a big deal out of the pullback in $AAPL shares, but what they fail to mention is that tech is not selling off. Most big tech stocks were up again yesterday, as the marketeers continue to play a game of Whac-A-Mole. 

I refuse to play that game. I can't sit in a leveraged bear ETF for weeks at a time waiting for a market to correct, when Wall Street sharks would rather play a game of cat and mouse, than take profits.

In certain situations you can hold a leveraged ETF long term, but leveraged funds do not retain their value in a sideways market, and if you happen to get caught on the wrong side of a nasty reversal, you can forget about ever getting back to even. 

Thankfully, I saw the short squeeze coming, after memorial day, but until tech enters a real corrective wave, the short trade is going to be a waste of time.

The Broader Market 

This morning market futures are weak, as expected: 



Yesterday's rally was only to a lower high, so I suspect we aren't finished building a base, 

Take Care, 
AA 







  
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Monday, August 7, 2023

Weekly Wrap-up, and a look ahead...

 Friday's trading session ended weak, which was no surprise, after the selling we saw all week. As usual the market was all about who was going to get paid on their weekly options. 

The selling in the Nasdaq has actually lasted more than 2 weeks - 12 days to be exact - and over that same period we've seen the energy sector driven to new recent highs. 

To highlight this fact here's a short term chart comparing the energy sector to the Nasdaq 100 


To further highlight this fact take a look at how Apple $APPL was taken down below the 50 day moving average, while $XOM was bid up above the 200 day moving average. 

$APPL - a simple takedown; the rug pulled - on Friday weekly Options Expiration - if you will... 


I can tell you that even several of the CNBC fast money traders were in on this stunt, and I could tell that, because they don't have good poker faces.  

$XOM - a forced breakout above the 200 day ma., however by the close it had given back most of the gains - painting a bearish shooting start candle. 


I'm not sure this signals a larger sector rotation out of big tech, into energy, or just another rigged weekly options expiration date. My thought is the latter, since tech and energy have actually been rallying in the same direction since the beginning of June. 

High energy prices are a huge liability for the election stealers.

Biden and co. can't  continue to celebrate low inflation as long as energy prices continue to climb.   

Rising petrol prices spark new concern in Washington

Jump in fuel costs comes as Saudi Arabia threatens deeper oil supply cuts and global demand soars ft.com

I'm sure the powers that be can already hear Donald Trump bragging about how low energy prices were under his administration. 

So, I actually think it's more likely that we're going to see profit taking in energy, as the broader market continues to be propped up. 

Take Care,

AA 

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Friday, August 4, 2023

Friday Update


Well it's starting to look like I made the right decision, NOT to chase the July rally; as we see the market quickly give back all of the gains of the past several weeks, and the Nasdaq testing support @ the June high (levels)   

$COMPQ Nasdaq - Of course I'm going to keep the downside targets close to my chest, but this shows the June support I just mentioned, as well as where the price action was rigged higher on light holiday trading. Typical Wall Street dirty tricks 


Oh, and remember last week, when I was pointing to the 20 day moving average, and warning people not to chase the dumb money. Broken!  

Speaking of the dumb money: 

This is exactly the time period that CNBC was trying to convince the below average investor that a so-called, "historic rally on the Dow Jones", was somehow proof that the rally had legs. 

Of course that was all BS. Historically the Dow always lags the rest of the market. CNBC knows this.  

$INDU - does this look like the longest winning streak since 1987, to you? 

I have lots of charts I'd like to share, but the hedge funds are always watching me.  

I can show you the Bull Trap in the 3X small caps fund $TNA 

$TNA - Good example of a bull trap!  


I'd like to reveal more charts, but in due time. 

$VIX - 

This is the biggest weekly move we've seen on the $VIX since march, so I think this sell-off has legs.   

Looks like we could see a little more weakness, as we trade into the weekend, but at some point there will be a little short squeeze, and possibly even a retest of the highs. 

If you traded in 2008, then you already know to expect every dirty trick in the book.  Stay nimble. 

Defensive Sector Trades  

I see a couple defensive sector trades, if you're looking for something like that - $99. The PayPal link can be found in the side menu.    

Mullen $MULN Update 

Funny, no sooner than I updated $MULN yesterday, we saw the short sellers squeezed, in what looks like - it could be - a bullish reversal. 

That's just a little too cute to be a coincidence, I think. 

   

The broader market 

I think there is a very good chance that we're  going to see more weakness in certain sectors, so I would stay somewhat diversified, and look for sector rotations.   

Watch the moving averages, because that seems to be about the only thing that works anymore. 

Have a great weekend, 

AA 

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Thursday, August 3, 2023

Market Update - Reviewing Yesterday's Action, plus a Mullen Update

To get my absolute take on the current selling in the market, as well as my short-term outlook, please also review yesterday's update. 

Bombshell report breaks the summer doldrums - $VIX 30?


Reviewing Yesterday's Action: 


The action was somewhat weak, but we didn't see much selling beyond the typical gap down, we saw at the open.  

Folks can talk about how devastating yesterday's sell-off was, as much as they want - "Nasdaq has it's worst day in 5 months" - it still only amounts to a 1 day sell-off. Never believe the hype. 

Speaking of hype & the Nasdaq: It was only a little over a month ago, when the fake financial headlines were touting a new boom in AI investment, when in actuality this is old news. 

Sep 13, 2021,

How AI-Powered Investing Is Changing Wall Street For Millennials forbes.com 

And just we saw a lot of fake news drive stock prices up, now we get plethora of fake news designed to keep the below average investor from selling, 

1 hour ago: 

Warren Buffett says he’s not worried about Fitch’s U.S. downgrade cnbc.com

Speaking of Fake News; just when you thought it couldn't get any worse; have you watched Bloomberg lately? 

Bloomberg's new format is worse than ever, and the AI seems to think every headline is a red alert moment! 

They also constantly seek out guests who talk with their hands, and the result is hideous. I think to myself, "who are all these idiots waving their arms" lol  

Not to mention the fact that they fail to report much of anything of actual substance. 

As far as the debt downgrade, you need to trust the market reaction, not what Jamie Dimon thinks... 

Market is still focused on earnings 

Today Amazon and Apple report, so I don't expect to see much more selling into that. 

The Dash for Trash continues 

Wayfair up another 5% in pre-market 

The Charts aren't even close to being broken 


$MULN  update - this may be obvious to some investor, but there's not sign of a bullish reversal in Mullen 

Take Care,

AA 




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Wednesday, August 2, 2023

Bombshell report breaks the summer doldrums - $VIX 30?

Global markets slide after Fitch downgrades US debt 

Notice how that story was delayed until technical Tuesday? I believe this was to ensure that indirect (retail) investment money would continue to be put to work, and as I pointed out in yesterday's update; it takes a very long time to take profits after driving stocks higher for 5 consecutive months. Expect the market to continue to be held up.

Of course the powers that be, knew this downgrade was coming, and just as we saw with the S&P downgrade in 2011, there isn't expected to be any forced selling. 

$DAX pulls back to the 16k (even number target). 



Dow futures were only down .3% last I checked, so the manipulators aren't finished...   

Fake News

Of course the lame stream mainstream media has done everything in it's power to downplay this US debt downgrade, and Bloomberg has spent more time parroting Janet Yellen's false statement, than they have... reporting the actual story. 

As much news as I watch, I didn't even see the story being reported yesterday, and even after I saw, "Yellen" trending on twitter, I still wasn't sure what to make of it. 

US Debt Downgrade, Yellen, Market Impact, Ugly Manufacturing PMI, Fed Speak

Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen may want to just pipe down and be glad it was only Fitch... realmoney.thstreet.com

Watch for Janet Yellen to do another tour of the Sunday shows this weekend! 

Even this morning Bloomberg continues to spin the story, in order to help Joe Biden, while pointing an accusing finger at president Trump.

If you still think the market isn't going to be rigged to help Joe Biden - and whoever else is going to be running in the 2024 Presidential Election - then just keep watching..!  

The Broader Market 

Markets continue to look pretty dull, except for the occasional blow-off top, like the one we saw in Caterpillar $CAT yesterday. 




Investors must believe that the unbridled spending - on infrastructure projects - can continue?    

That sure would be nice... but you can't have unlimited growth, in a limited resource world. 

$SPX - continues to look pretty dull and that's because momentum has dried up.  

This is what happens at every market top. 

Regardless of all the negative news, and selling overseas; even if we see a pullback this week; I don't believe the $VIX can even break above the 20 level.  

$VIX prediction 

Take Care, AA 




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