Monday, September 20, 2021

Market Update 9/20/2021 - Seeing Another Surprise Monday Morning Shakeout

 I'm calling negative futures a, "surprise shakeout", even though it should be no surprise the market can't seem to sell-off until after Monthly Options Expiration. What will really be a surprise, is if the market continues to sell-off, into the next FOMC meeting only day's away. I see close to 0% chance of that happening. 

So here's my forecast for the week, and be sure to check out my targets for the $QQQ, I laid out on Friday. 

$VIX to gap up, and hit resistance somewhere between 25.60 and 26.60. Of course the $VIX could overshoot, but I don't see it getting above 30 (the top of the range). 


The Dow

As I pointed out on Sept 10th, the $DOW lags the rest of the market, so that's where I want to continue to focus our attention. 

$INDU - DCS  chart - This mornings we're seeing the bullish channel break, but I'm also seeing a clear path to Dow 40k, once the price action crawls back into the channel.  Watch for support at 34k, at my pink line. Chart added to the public charts area. 



$INDU - weekly view - see the DOW trading above the top of the channel (34k precisely). 


China 

We're also seeing a continued shakeout in Chinese equities. Nothing new there, except the fake financial news - at Bloomberg - was seen pointing to the 3X China bear $YINN. Why today, and not last week? Why on the Monday, after Sept. OPEX, 3 days before the next fed meeting? 

Look, my China short worked out really well, even if I covered too soon, but at this point I'm bottom picking the $FXI (China again).

$FXI - DCS (Daily Candle Stick) chart: Looks like a normal pullback.  


What's awesome is, even though I covered one of my tech shorts on Friday, I left the other one one, and also short financials. I expect to be taking profits in $TECS, and $FAZ, well ahead of the next The Federal Reserve announcement, and as soon as today's open. Still have to look at some charts  

$NDX (big tech) - 30 min chart - Looking for 151 there. 



Financials are hardly even down - so much for the collapse of, "Evergrande spooking credit markets" - eye-roll 


Natural Gas 

Adding to my Nat Gas shorts last week, turned out to be one of the best decisions I could've made, and need to start looking for a good place to start taking some profits. 

If you were unlucky enough to get locked into 3 day (cash) trade in $UGAZ (3X long NatGas), you lost close to 30% in 3 days. 

This morning we've seen Natural Gas contracts snap back to resistance, but I wouldn't touch it here, with a 10 foot pole. 

NatGas - 15 min live chart


$UNG (NatGas fund) - Could maybe see it build a base, just below the 27.40 level 


The other trade I'm watching closely is Gold miners, metals, silver. 

I've been short Silver for a while, and see no reason to take that position off. You can find the $SLV charts in the public charts area, and the miner charts as well. Maybe Gold gains some traction, when The Fed reports very bearish again?   

$SPY (the $SPX ETF) - looks like we're going to see a little shakeout below the 50 day moving average, but I'd be watching for the $VIX to top out, and the price action on the $SPY to climb back into the bullish channel, and squeeze the shorts possibly all the way into the holidays. The catalyst for the reversal. could be an Evergrande bankruptcy announcement (buy the news event). Remember what happened after Lehman defaulted? 


That's about it for this Monday Morning.

Good luck this week, AA

 



Friday, September 17, 2021

Market Update 9/16 - Friday Options Expiration - there is a small chance of a big sell-off

Picking up from where I left off yesterday: 

1. Looks like stocks are going to remain pinned on this OPEX Friday, but you just never know,,,. We've seen volatility spike, and stocks sell-off, on OPEX before, although it's pretty rare (1/99). That's a 1% chance... 


2. Bloomberg acts as if they don't know why it is that markets were "quiet", for most the week, including yesterday, as if they don't know it's a Jewish holiday, or something. What is that? 

But as much as I rip Bloomberg news, it's 10X better than Faux FOX news, or CNBS (cnbc).  

3. After yesterdays' blogs I remembered twitting this Australia/China cold war story, back in August: 

  

4. So you would think France is in trouble, after being thrown under the bus, and it's highly suspicious that the Australia story come out, just as the $CAC is testing the 2000 highs. I suppose this is another thing Bloomberg just happened to miss?   


Wish I had the time to chart China, but instead I want to provide a longer term setup for tech stocks, the only stocks the controllers really care about - judging by the charts I provided yesterday. I mean, if the tech sector is being propped up, then it must be for a very good reason, right?   

My long term outlook on US tech

I can't say I liked yesterday's tech rally to a lower high, and I managed to sound the warning, going into yesterday's close, and I think there's a good chance the tech bulls get taken out behind the woodshed, if not today, then next week. 

Like I said: Not liking the short term: 

 $QQQ - rallies to a lower high, going into Thursday's close, along with semiconductors.

 Now let's assume we don't see another shakeout until next week. The 50 day average becomes the target, where you will no doubt see program buying. 

 

$QQQ - Possible shakeout next week, followed, by a bigger rally, back to the 380 level. That could set up for a much bigger correction to the 355 target, in early October. That would set up for a bullish October OPEX, and probably even a rally into the end of the year, because you have to assume the shorts are going to be squeeze into the holiday's. Then new money comes in, and holds the market up, a little while longer. 

 


      $QQQ (weekly chart) - Looks like a 385 target and a retest of the upper channel. 


This slow market has given me some extra time to update the public charts area, so be sure to check that out. There's a goof possibility we see a big rally in golf miners after yesterday's shakeout, but you don't want to be wrong here, as I tweeted yesterday! 

$JNUG is the 3X leveraged jr miners bull. Not for the weak of heart, or the unlearned. 

And here's a miner to watch - back-testing the 41.42 level (LT support). 

$WPM Silver Wheaton 



Take care, and have a great weekend! 

AA   

 


Thursday, September 16, 2021

Market Update Part 2 - the trade

Be sure to check out Part 1 of today's update, "Uh Oh, Looks Like I Was Right About WWIII!"

I really didn't expect much movement today, but since completing part 1 of today's update we've seen the $SPX slide all the way back to support - giving back practically all of yesterday's gains. But as long as we don't start seeing lower lows, this looks like a bullish pullback, at least going into tomorrow - OPEX Friday. and probably into the beginning of next week.  

$SPX 15 min. Chart: - pulls back to my green-line. 


The $VIX remains contained (below 20). See my take on the $VIX in yesterday's blog. 

So no change from yesterday, except that we're seeing a washout in metals, and what looks like a reversal in Natural Gas, and Oil. I tweeted that I wasn't going to add to my NatGas short, unless it hit $6, but after what I was seeing in the charts - in yesterday's blog - and seeing KOLD down another 10% at yesterday's open, I couldn't resist...! So, take into account that my perspective may be a little skewed, at this point, because I'm a little over-leveraged on the short side of that trade. 

Natural Gas: Be sure to check out the charts in yesterday's blog, if you're trading NatGas. 

I watching NatGas at yesterday's open, and spotted yesterday's reversal in real time. Moments later told traders to "smash it". I also warned folks to stay away from Oil, and Uranium. 


Uranium: 


Think the powers that be won't use tax payer money to crush the commodities market, just so that they can keep lending governments money? The Fed, is a corrupt group of racketeers.   

 $DBC looks like a broadening top pattern, and the fake news has convinced everyone that commodities are going higher. 



One more thing on the commodities front. 

NatGas - bearish candlestick analysis. I don't rely to heavily on candlestick analysis, unless I'm picking tops or bottoms, and NatGas did take out yesterday's target - to confirm. 

Top 3 candles - including today's live one. Bearish shooting star. 2. Doji or hanging man (reversal candle). 3. Bearish engulfing, 
 



I hadn't planned to get so deeply into commodities this morning, but it just turned out that way.

What I did intend on pointing out, is that high beta continues to be bought at the 50 day moving average. This is holding markets up, and as long as the high flyers are held up, the controllers know, they have nothing to worry about, especially trading into OPEX, on a holiday.  

High Beta: 

And peaking of high flyers: 

The other thing I noticed, was the QQQ's rallying off support, at my pink line. Confirms that they are using ETF's to drive the market. 

$QQQ - holding above st support 




Today's trade may seem a little insignificant, after reading what I have to say in part one, but maybe WWIII doesn't start immediately, and maybe it can be contained to Australia, or Europe, at least. The Chinese know that as soon as they launch a strike on the US, we will launch a full retaliatory strike on Beijing, and that would be the end of China. 

Good Luck, and have a great weekend, if I don't see you again. 

AA 

   


Market Update 9/16/21 - Uh Oh, Looks Like I Was Right About WWIII!

 Uh Oh, Looks Like I Was Right About WWIII!  

US, UK and Australia forge military alliance to counter China - theguardian

I can't really explain how I come up with these kinds of gloomy predictions, except that I look at the charts, and possibilities start coming to mind, as they did when I most recently mentioned that WWIII was looking like more of a real possibility in a blog dated 9/1, and I believe there was another blog where I pointed to the strategic importance of Australia, and the military industrial complex's obsession with a military conflict with China - in the the south sea - but I can't seem to find anything I've written on the subject.  Perhaps I only tweeted about it, or researched it, but I know I mentioned WWIII in my last interview with Dale Pinkart @stophunter over at Forex Analytics (.com).   

I guess I'm a realist, because I grew up around the time of the Cuban missile crisis, most people of my generation were constantly reminded of the possibility of nuclear war in our lifetimes, and I personally think it's a miracle that we've avoided it for this long. Nuclear war is the number once threat to civilization, but today's generation seems to be more concerned with social justice, and climate collapse, as they remain glued to their electronic devices, living some alternate reality. It's the epitome of complacency, and it's going to be a rude awakening when the proverbial shit hits the fan.            

We also see China decoupling from the global economy, and the economic new world order. The lame stream media only reports that "China is cracking down...", but they fail to go into specifics. They talk about a "tutoring ban", and a 3 hr (weekly) limit on gaming hrs, yet they fail to mention the "why...?". Its because unlike the US, China has ethical standards, and they refuse to allow their youth to be destroyed by western pop culture, as we have so easily allowed, and all for the sake of the holy dollar. In case you didn't notice, there is no regulation - to speak of - in this country, where we not only allow multi-national corporations to poison kids bodies with toxic ingredients, and pesticides, and even pure nicotine, and THC, but we allow them to poison their minds, which is far worse. Ultimately it's the parents responsibility to keep their children safe, but that becomes extremely tough when everybody from the public school system, to mass-media, and social networks, are the enemy.  

In a related story: 

Lawmakers Push Facebook To Abandon Instagram For Kids, Citing Mental Health Concerns (npr)

I'm sure there are a few good people in government, but the vast majority represent no one, except themselves, meaning their special interests, which is code for whoever is going to financial their next campaign.  

As far as the market is concerned, there's a good reason why trading has been so quiet, and that reason is because this is a holiday  - Yom Kippur began Yesterday (Wed.) Sept 15th. 

I have a few charts to look at, but the opening bell rings in 2 minutes. 

I'll try to get part 2 completed shortly, and that shouldn't be too difficult, on light holiday trading day. 

Catch you in Part 2, AA 

Link to Market Update Part 2 - the trade


      


  


ssss

Wednesday, September 15, 2021

Market Update 9/15/2021 - Did I cover my China short too soon? New NatGas target. And are we still on track for a big rally?

 I've been giving most everything I have away - on twitter - recently, so today's update is going to contain a lot of what I'v been churning out there. I'm also going to reveal something I haven't tweeted, the DOW pro-short !  

First off: The powers that be (the controllers) have a tight grip on this market. Of course the bears - I follow on twitter - can't see it, but I'm sure they will, soon enough.    

As I tweeted to a new twitter follower, yesterday:

What's relevant about that chart is that the $VIX is obviously being controlled, and as long as that continues, the bears don't have a chance....  

You don't even need a $SPX chart to know what happens next. 

If we do see another little washout, then I would be a seller on any breakout  - of the $VIX above the 200 day, and the magic (20) number, and a buyer off the 50 day moving average on the $SPX. Pretty simple, unless the shakeout comes at the end of the day, but in that case, I would be on another short squeeze Friday.   

China - did I cover my short too soon?  

I was short China for over a week, and up quite nicely in $YANG, but when I see the machines buying the 20 day moving averages, I get nervous. Most people would say there's nothing wrong with taking profits, but it's hard enough sticking with a winning trade, without that kind of chatter.  

It's uncanny how many things I noticed being bought at the 20 day moving average yesterday, even the $NDX! 

 

Natural Gas 

$UNG (Natural Gas fund) - another twitter follower pointed out to me that this has rallied to the 200 week, or month, moving average, which in the past I would've said isn't really significant, because ETF's aren't indexes, but I appreciate the heads up because the market is full of ignorant fools, who run hedge funds, and knowing that I don't doubt this is the target! It took me years to realize, ETF's are bing used to drive underlying indexes, so you really need  to watch everything, and be open to different interpretations! Back in the day, I would've just blocked someone pointing to a moving average on an ETF. 

$UNG - sure enough is taking out the 50 month, and at the top of a parallel channel. Could see a little throw-over past that target, and we are seeing a higher high in pre-market!  The target at my red line looks like 19.95 - $20 maybe? 

  



Looked like it took out my target yesterday, but commodities overshoot all the time 


Energy and specifically Natural Gas scares me here. See this Natural Gas name testing the top of the range. 

$SO - Southern 

Even a better short than Natural Gas; Lithium

Lithium - massive overshoot at the top of a parallel channel. Of course you need to sell Lithium contracts in order to play it, and that's too risky for most traders.


Now, here's something I didn't give away on Twitter: 

There's a DOW pro (long) ETF, with the ticker symbol $UDOW and I think that might be the best way to catch thye rally on the DOW, that I've been predicting for the past week! I almost went long the Russell at yesterday's close, but I still prefer the DOW, since it's lagging so much, and because big tech drives the dow, and we see Microsoft buybacks, and new Apple products, designed to lift the FAANGs. Of course the corporates are in on it!  After all we are living in a corporatocracy.

In a related story Joe Biden to pressure CEO's to force vaccine mandates. This is some of the most corrupt - in broad daylight - behavior I've seen come out of the White House, since Benghazi Gate. 

Biden to reportedly meet Wednesday with execs on COVID vaccine mandate - nypost

Weber washes out to a new low. This is what you want to see at a reversal, capitulation! 


 But I digress, and now I'm almost out of time. 

$UDOW - no doubt the DOW has been pulling back after this hit resistance. Remember what I was just saying about leveraged ETF's being used to drive indices? This would be a prime example of this. I thought this would be easier to chart, but not so much... 



I would also be watching the 50 day moving average on the DOW, and this black lower pattern line. To be honest this makes me a little nervous, but let the $VIX be your guide. Review a previous blog for $VIX targets. Low $VIX = no fear. 



GL, AA 




Tuesday, September 14, 2021

Market Update 9/14/21 - Hammer Time!

Hammer Time! 

And what's about to get hammered is the $VIX, in a manipulated market, as usual. 

Over the past several months; every time the $VIX has rallied above the 200 day moving average, it's been hammered back down, on the 3rd day, and guess what today is? It's day 3! 

$VIX - Actually broke 19.60 support after I tweeted the chart (below). Next support levels: 17.50, 16.25, and 15.38. And these only need to hold into OPEX Friday. That's the whole point of not allowing the market to correct here. 



Hammer Time! 


Natural Gas: 

I didn't realize it had popped higher, at yesterday's open, but once I realized it had I used that opportunity to add to my short bet. It's pretty obvious to me, retail investors are the ones buying at these levels. 

$UNG  (gas fund) this is the easiest way to buy Natural Gas. Still looks like a blow-off top in wave 5, of C, of P-D. Seeing a 18.75 target this morning. 


 WE saw a little bear attach in FAANG stocks at yesterday's open. Probably bulls, trying to shake the weak hands, as they return from vacation. Cramer knows what he hears on the street, so that would explain why he's looking for more downside. I used yesterday's bear raid, as an opportunity to take profits on some short bets. When I see the bears get squeezed, I'll be a seller again.    

The rest of the market remains pretty dull: 

Russell 2000 broke my green line, but found support at the 50 day moving average. That's the level to watch, and below there, the 200 day ma. We're just not seeing much risk of a risk-off environment. 

   


Bull flag: 

  


That's about all I got for today. 

GL, AA





Monday, September 13, 2021

Market Update 9/13/21 - This is too easy

 Looks like I got it right again. It's not that difficult when futures are up every day, and the $VIX remains contained. 


Going into Friday's close the $VIX was seen being pressed just above 20, in order to spook some psudo traders out of their positions. Same thing we saw last week. $SPX 4500 once again being taken out. No change really, except for the $VIX being manipulated (just) above 20. 

Another thing that's changed is the fake news being reported over at CNBC - Worldwide Exchange. They are claiming that there was a "sell-off", last week, and that this morning futures somehow point to a turn-around (?), when they know damn well, that is a bs narrative. Rather than count the days, do the math, and stop trying to make the court jester James Cramer look smart. See: 

The six reasons why Jim Cramer is concerned about the stock market in September

Amazingly Cramer is looking for another "brutal" week this week, but unless the trend can be broken, or the moving averages taken out on higher volume, the bears had best keep their party hats in the closet. A 1% pullback, over a 5 day period, in Sept., round number targets on the $SPX, and DOW, and $VIX 20 means nothing. 

Conversely 

Bloomberg had a brilliant guest on this morning - Christopher Verrone - Partner/Head:Technical Analysis, Strategas Research Partners. 

My father always told me to choose mentors who are smarter than you, and this guy fits the bill! 

Christopher Verrone got bullish Gold in May of 2016, just ahead of the bullish reversal, and today he's cautious on the QQQ's, because of the massive inflows he's seeing. He knows that bull markets, that are over 2 years old, don't normally continue to move in a straight line, so there is bound to be a correction this year. He's not downright bearish as long as rates don't rise, and he also recognizes that less than 50% of $SPX stocks are bullish (up). That's something we call breadth, or market participation, which is one of the critical sentiment indicators I measure, and I can confirm it has been downright lousy, since even May-June of last year, where the number of stocks reaching new highs peaked out, along with bullish sentiment. Normally what you see from there is a correction, and then you see bearish sentiment peak out, but it's just taking a little longer this time. I refuse to reveal those indicators (charts), to folks who refuse to help support the cause.   

DOW - DCS chart - Trend remains up. Breakout target 35.1. Short squeeze target - now - +$36k - (nice round number). 


Timelines are tough, but I suspect we'll see the upside target taken  out by the end of the week. 

I think big tech needs to hold up into the end of the week, as well, since a sell-off there would hurt the DOW rally. DOW contains big tech names; Microsoft. Cisco, $IBM, INTEL and others.  

By the way, Intel was the bullish chart I revealed at Friday's open, but even though it was up 2% at one point during the day, it failed to break out. If you're trading this name and need help, then make a donation to this blog, and let me know in my twitter feed. 

$INTC: 


 

Another stock to watch is Amazon! 

$AMZN - trading into a right shoulder, in a classic bearish H&S pattern. 



We need to see Amazon take out my right shoulder target. 

Here's another stock to watch, or trade this week - new IPO Weber. 

$WEBR Weber - could be a good Sept. Options trade. 

 



Oil up. 

Natural Gas is not up, and yes I'm short, as I revealed in my twitter feed...and I only reveal this position because I believe the hedge funds have no ability to hijack (rig) the natural gas market. 

Opening bell just rang, so I'm outta time. 

GL, AA 

  

Friday, September 10, 2021

Market Update 9/10/21 - The China reversal, Natural Gas (sell) targets, and a likely 1000 point rally!

Yesterday, I had nearly completed a very lengthy and informative update, but somehow lost 1.5 hours worth of work. This was 15 minutes before the opening bell, and it really took the wind out of my sails. I didn't have time to recover from that catastrophe.

I did add some charts to the previous update, which you can usually find pinned to my twitter page, and if some point I can't find the time to blog, just look there. That is until twitter cancels me, which I have no doubt will eventually happen.  

The main points I wanted to make... 

1. The trend on the DOW remains (up), and we don't fight the trend.   

$INDU - upturned triangle pattern. Target - at the top of the pattern - 1000 points higher. Sounds like a lot, and of course the lame stream media will saturate the headlines, but it's only a 3% move. 



I thought we might see more weakness yesterday, and another thorough retest of the 50 day moving average, followed by a gap (back) up above support (at the 35.1 level), and that's exactly what we're seeing. We've seen this so many times before, you'd have to be an ignorant fool, not to see this short squeeze Friday coming. I know I must sound like a broken record at this point, but every Options expiration is manipulated, weekly/monthly. 

I saw this coming on Wed. 


If you really need a (rational) catalyst for the market to gap up, it's that the ECB reported yesterday, and that takes away uncertainty like a FOMC announcement. Remember the ECB, and the Fed are in cahoots, and the american tax payer is on the hook for the entire global debt bubble. Scary thought.    

$SPX - yesterday we saw the criminal controllers taking out stops just below the 4500, and loading the truck, and predictably this morning, we see the truck driving away. 

Tweeted this important fact yesterday: 


Probably the most obvious indicator of a continuing rally, is that the $VIX continues to be sold. That either means there's no fear in the market, or the manipulators (bulls) are still in control.  

Some followers are probably asking, "why I'm making predictions on DOW movements, when nobody trades it? That's because the DOW lags. You can't have the DOW selling off, every day, and tech rallying to new highs, and expect a market correction. That's just the way it is. We could however see a sector rotation from tech, into DOW stocks. The money to fuel any rally has to come from somewhere. 

Natural Gas 

Natural Gas - Looks like it already overshot, but this is what commodities do. Next target looks like $5.10, in a rare broadening triangle pattern, seen on the chart below. 

NatGas - actually did take out my target yesterday. Called this out in my twitter feed, as well. Could retest or even overshoot slightly, but if it continues to breakout I'll be looking to add to short positions.  



$UNG (NatGas fund) - same thing. Powerful wave 5 of C, at the top of an expanding rising bullish channel. That's a double (100%) in 5 months.  


NATGAS - may have already overshot - in a rogue wave D - but momentum could carry it to 5.50. Calling this an overshoot in wave D, followed by a nasty reversal into Wave E. From there the catalyst could be nuclear winter, or some new type of geoengineering (weather manipulation) causing winter temperatures to plummet. That could send Gas prices through the roof, and mass starvation, to boot.  





NatGas: The only other pattern I see is a false breakout in wave B of (Y)




 Oil: Oil looks like it's consolidated enough. Could see a big move in Oil as soon as today, if it can rally back above the 50 day moving average (69.93). The pink line is your stop. 



Resistance on Oil is the previous high, as we're still looking at major resistance on the long term chart. 



China continues to struggle at the top of the range, but I think Sept Options are holding US trades Chinese stocks up. Rebounds on light holiday volume are common. 

$FXI (China) Watch the 50 day moving average, trading at 41.96.  



I got tons more China charts, but little time. 



I'm going to give out a free stock pick at the opening bell, so follow me on Twitter. 

Always practice proper money management, and remain diversified.

    

Take Care, AA 


Wednesday, September 8, 2021

Market Update 9/8/2021 - Morgan Stanley calls for a pullback

 I have a lot to get to this morning, and let's start with something I failed to mention in yesterday's update. It's the fact that the bid on $LUMBER was raised above the 50 day moving average, in order to facilitate the short squeeze, and to trigger program buying. We see this all the time, and it's something to look for, any time, any market, gaps up, or down, for that matter. 

I think it's a little more than coincidental that Morgan Stanley calls for a pullback, and the fake financial networks run with the story, one day after the charts begin to break down, but historically the day after labor day, is a good time for a pullback - according to CNBC! (sense the sarcasm)      

That's right, all the short term charts - besides tech, and whatever else was up yesterday (China) - were seen rolling over, and apparently Morgan Stanley knows something about this.

Don't believe me, check out the charts:    

$SPX - 15 min view - breaking support  


$SPX - 60 min view - support breaks. Next obvious support level 4500 ( a round number). It's too early to even call this a reversal, let alone, a major top, and we could still see another retest of the highs. Time will tell, but with Sept. OPEX coming fast, we should have a good idea what to expect by Sept 17th. 

 


NASDAQ ($QQQ) - 10 min view - technically not broken, and even CNBC seemed to know the NASDAQ will probably make another new high. Learn to read between the lines, and you'll see they are not only located at the heart of the NASDAQ, but they are a giant mouthpiece for the powers that be, as the NASDAQ continues to be manipulated ever-higher.  


I think the best bet for a pullback, could be in China, or Europe, and I suspect Europe, and specifically Brussels has been calling the shots for a very long time. Another topic for another time, but you really need to watch the Wilshire 5000, because this is the index being watched in Europe. 

$WLSH - 60 min view - Watch for this bad boy to break at the open, and I'll be adding this chart to the public charts area. 


$VIX bounced out of the hole yesterday, so that's another thing to watch. Maybe the selling doesn't accelerate until next week - when volume should pick up - as long as they can continue to hammer the $VIX down. 

Even more important than the $VIX

I know I probably sound like a broken record, but I  can't stress enough, how important it is to watch the moving averages, and even more-so, now that the machines have taken over. Of course this makes charting, and trading even more complicated; when the pattern you've been watching for weeks suddenly breaks, only to find support at a key moving average, and the next thing you know the price action has bounced back into the pattern. In some cases this really skews up the chart, or worse you're trade. 

If you were following me during the covid panic, then you kno strategic support was purposely taken out in pre-market, several times in a row. Meaning that, instead of the market selling off to (for instance) the 50 day moving average, and dip buyers, or machines being given the opportunity to buy that level, the 50 day would be taken out at the open, and that caused forced selling. The powers that be must have spent weeks - in advance - orchestrating that crash. No doubt they had been anticipating the same wave C (pullback), I had been warning about, for months. This is one reason, I refuse to believe covid was the real reason for the pullback, and this is proven by the new all time highs in equities, during a so called pandemic. There is no crises, never was a crises, except for the continuing banking crisis in Europe and elsewhere, and the fact that a never ending supply of fed money is needed to prop up the great ponzi market. If covid can be used as an excuse to bail out the global bond market, and rescue foreign banks, and hedge funds, then the public isn't going to be able to voice an objection. Shut up and obey, remember? For as long as I've been trading, these are the only market fundamentals that matter, more bailouts, and free money.           

Getting back to the technical rigging of markets, using nothing more than moving averages.

You'll see me add a note to my annotations anytime this happens, for example on the DOW chart below. 

$INDU - bid was raised (above support) last Oct. and the short sellers squeezed right through the holidays. This was no more a coincidence, than the most recent moves we've seen in lumber. 

Now you see the price action has overshot the top of the channel, and momentum has died, because this is where the so called smart money has been taking profits for the past several months. Could it continue to trade above the top of the channel? Sure, anything is possible, in a perpetually rigged market, and the market is measured in months, not days. 


This morning we see DOW futures down "triple digits", which is just more meaningless reporting from the clowns at CNBC. If they wanted to report something relevant, they would point out that the 50 day moving average on the DOW could be taken out at today's open, and then expose Morgan Stanley, as being a big part of the crooked banking cartel, known as the "federal reserve", but don't hold your breath... 

Yes, America, a Banking Cartel Exists and Here’s the Proof


Things to watch: 

The $USD continues to be bought above the 50 day moving average. This explains why it's been trading where it has for the past several weeks, more than anything else. If you know what to do, when the 50 day moving average breaks, then you can call yourself a trader. 


China - has gapped up several days in a row, for no other reason, than light holiday trading. Watch the 50 day moving average on the $FXI. If that's going to hold, then don't waste your time...

Next support is the 200 week moving average, so maybe Chinese stocks are going to hold up into Sept. OPEX.  

 


$AMZN - fills the gap on super light holiday trading volume. 



Sorry I can't reveal all my trades, but I want you to learn how to chart, and trade, for yourself. Giving out my trades is pointless, and makes me a target of unscrupulous hedge funds. 

AA 


Tuesday, September 7, 2021

Market Update 9/7/21 - The best trade of the week.

 The $VIX gapped up this morning, but as you can see, market futures continue to be held up - just barely - in the green. That's blatant manipulation, and that kind of manipulation is one of the reasons holiday trading is usually unpredictable. 

Friday was another unpredictable day, and despite another lousy unemployment report, several thinly traded markets including, Natural Gas, Biotech, and even rare earth metals were seen testing new recent highs. Silver was also up, which didn't make much sense to me, but when has the market ever made sense? Again, it's easy to manipulate thinly traded markets on light volume.   

The best trade 

The best trade has been the rebound in Lumber, which I alerted to on August 31st.   

Lumber: Gaps above the 50 day, for another 10% upside. I only wish there was a leveraged lumber bull ETF!  



Commodities in General have provided some of the best trading opportunities, as of late. 

That was predictable, as we continue to see only tiny gains in US equities. CNBC can report it as the $SPX makes 54 new highs this year, but the truth is, these gains aren't even worth mentioning.  

Natural Gas: Regardless of the "European energy crisis" story, being peddled by the lying financial news networks, natural gas remain in a 20 year bear market. 


If you're trading Natural Gas, then you're going to want to watch the $UNG

$UNG - closed on a doji reversal candle. My personal favorite! Also looks like the end of a 5 wave move. Watch the $16 level. And if it (mini) crashes to the $14 level, I'll be happy to cover my shorts! 



I've run out of time. 

Gl, AA 





Thursday, September 2, 2021

Market Update 9/2/21 - market dumped into the close - new trend?

First, I have something to get off my chest, in the form of a lengthy rant:  

I had planned to be away for the next few days, (going into the Labor Day Holiday) but everything seems to be shut down again - in Illinois - and certain activities are only open, if you've been vaccinated, or recently tested (within the past 3 days) for Covid-19, and I'll be damned if I'm going to get an experimental vaccination, I don't need, or allow myself to be tested by some millennial making $10 per hour, and risk being infected by a contaminated nose swab. This is how you catch diseases, not avoid them! Crazy world continues.  

In a related story, which was quickly buried - by the lying fascists in the lame stream media: Quietly reported on a Sunday: Biden's top-down (vaccine) booster plan sparks anger at FDA - politico  

This isn't the first time we've seen resignations in the highly politicized, and (money controlled)  funded by the same multi-national corporations it claims to regulate - industrial pharmaceutical complex - FDA.   

Last time this happened the FDA was seen pushing an unproven $56,000 (per dose) Alzheimer drug, and that story also received very little coverage, whereas if Trump was president, it might have been front page news, although Trump seemed to go along with the official narrative, most of the time.  Three F.D.A. Advisers Resign Over Agency’s Approval of Alzheimer’s Drug - NYT  June 10th, 2021 

Remember, when similar government agencies deregulated the banking industry, and nobody was held accountable.... and now we're supposed to trust that pharmaceutical companies are going to be properly regulated, with our safety in mind? Look, if you are injured by a vaccine - which isn't that uncommon - you have no legal recourse, and there is not accountability in Washington, D.C.

Yet, another story buried - by the pro-vax crowd - and for good reason: Minnesota medical worker has both of her legs AMPUTATED after contracting COVID-19 just days after receiving her second vaccine dose (dailymail.co.uk)


"Medical experts are unsure whether the vaccine caused her complications, while her husband searches for answers". Yeah, good luck with that! 

About the National Vaccine Injury Compensation Program

Onto the charts, and the rigged/ fake bull market, which only continues for as long as emergency (The Fed) action, and unlimited government spending continues. I fear the day of reckoning, is at hand. 

Market futures up: 

Every day, we see market futures up, and why should this day be any different?

I don't usually like to get attached to short term charts, when we're getting so close to a capitulation point, but as long they're still working, why not...? 

I even found a pullback target on Natural Gas - in real time - so the technicals could not me more predictable. 

Natural Gas - to document the pullback target, which I nailed flawlessly. This target was called out in my twitter feed, around 20 min. before it was taken out. Res. was called out at 4.64, an hour earlier?

Natural Gas (long term) also called out in my twitter feed. As you may remember I was early calling the top in NatGas last month, and then avoided the short squeeze, and now here we are again. Could be a capitulation point. 

I even pointed out the breakout on the Russell 2000 - in my twitter feed - and had some idiot follower arguing with the chart! That kind of bs will earn you an instant block, by the way. If you aren't going to trust the charts, then you don't deserve to follow me.  

More Short term views 


$SPX - 15 min chart - breaks out, and holds support at my pink line. The pattern continues to resemble a rising broadening triangle a.k.a. a megaphone top. 

SPY ($SPX ETF) - 60 min view -  held support going into the close. In fact it landed right on my pink support line. That - 450 level - becomes the short term stop-hunt. 

We failed to see the low volatility $SPX breakout, yesterday, but once the short sellers leave for vacation, the manipulators will have an easier time.... 

$SPLV - (low volatility $SPX)
We failed to see the breakout we were looking for yesterday, but maybe tomorrow, or even next week, when most short sellers will be away. That should be prime time for another short squeeze. You might want to check the moving averages on this one, especially the 20 day, which I can confirm is being traded by short term traders.  
 


 

I have the next target annotated as "wave 3", but I wouldn't be left holding the bag there, and waiting for a wave 4. 

$SPLV - long term view - looks like holy hell. We could be only days, or weeks, away from a major correction.  Snipe profits! 


One more long term chart. I've been saying for years, that the real tech bubble can be found in the Arca index, and I alerted to that chart in my twitter-feed yesterday, and I'm adding the $QQQ right here.  

$QQQ (Heavily traded NASDAQ ETF) - seeing this one being advertised a lot on the TV, so you know the smart money isn't investing. 




Later, AA