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Wednesday, December 1, 2021

Market Update - Money Is Put To work At The Beginning of the Month

 Money Is Put To work At The Beginning of the Month

There are exceptions to the rule, and you typically see money be put to work on the first Monday, of the month, but I would expect any smart money manager to be buying the dip today. 

Futures are green

 Remember what I said yesterday, about market reversals taking place in the heavily manipulated futures market? This morning is another prime example... and I saw this coming, when I shut down the computer, before yesterday's close. You just seldom see short covering rallies, going into the close anymore. Why not buy the news when Powell is finished speaking, rather than trap the short sellers with an upside surprise?  The only logical explanation is that money isn't put to work until the 1st trading day of the year.  

Of course, the fake financial news networks will never report, that "futures are up, because markets are cyclical, and money is being put to work...", but this is a fact, and true 90% of the time. Money is also typically put to work on Monday's, but it's more exciting to report how "bullish investors are", at the start of each week. 

Look, money is going to be put to work at certain times of the Day, Week, Month, and Year, regardless of market sentiment, and knowing this, and using it to your advantage, is one of the keys to constantly winning.  

Speaking of winning:

The charts all seemed to line up nicely yesterday, as the $SPX took out my target on the 10 min. chart, and the $VIX remained contained, in the face of what can only now be described as another taper tantrum. Didn't I tell you the latest covid story, had nothing to do with this pullback?   

The crooked banks, and their Hedgefunds, and the IMF, or whoever has been trashing the Oil market, knew the Fed was planning a faster tapper weeks ago. Of course Powell doesn't want to upset markets, by dropping a bombshell like that, so he talks about tapering for how many months now, and then basically admits the word transitory was a lie? How do you expect the market to react...? CNBC should apologize for claiming the market doesn't only care about free money, but instead they continue to blame the "unvaccinated". News flash: The vaccine doesn't even prevent covid, in fact it requires you get regular booster shots, just like the flue vaccine, that they've been seen pushing on every network for years! Follow the money.   

Breaking News: South African Heath Minister Says C.1.2 Variant "Not A Threat" Sept 3rd Reuters. Yet today we see more mass hysteria, with the reporting of 2 cases, over here or there, as if it's the black death.    

As far as the market is concerned: No covid worries today? How is this possible? 

It may be too soon to say we're off to the races here, and we could see the DOW test the 200 day ma, and the 50 week ma - as well - but I can say, I'm breathing a lot easier this morning. My stress level has come way down, and it seems very appropriate that "happy new month" is trending, on twitter, at #4.

A word on stress:  

It's important to take a deep breath, once in a while, because what good is winning, if you're going to let the stress get to you? Do some meditation, breathing exercises, yoga, sauna, whatever works for you! This is probably the best trading tip of the year! 

I'm still trying to get a handle on some sector charts, and I don't see $SOX leading a rally higher, although we do see the NASDAQ leading again this morning, and I did give the all clear, yesterday. I even covered my $SQQQ short, and sitting on a pile of cash. I think having some cash on the sidelines is a good idea, until we see more certainty.    

NASDAQ all clear sounded 

As usual I put up a lot of charts up yesterday, and even updated the public charts area. 

You'll find the $SVXY chart now in the #1 position, which continues to be used to manipulate $VIX futures. In fact most the leveraged ETF's are used to manipulate the underlying indices, and I've shown you how the machines will even buy moving averages on these funds, which makes the underlying market, a more difficult read than ever. It was never easy to read the market, or predict the next move, but today's market requires watching so many moving averages, it's mind boggling. And on top of that, there are too many funds (period!). This is one reason we find ourselves trading in a bubble, and Warren Buffet is correct when he refers to derivatives as "weapons of financial destruction", and a day of reckoning is coming. Come what may, I just hope to be on the right side of trading history. 

A 3rd problem with all these funds being traded, and the machines buying every moving average, is that it constantly slows momentum, in either direction. Some will argue that it provides more liquidity to markets, but it seems like one fund is often left fighting another. For example: If financial sector traders all traded the $IYF chart, you would get more consistent outcomes, than you do with another group of traders trading the $XLF, and still others trading the banking indexes. It's not wonder channels are constantly breaking, and targets overshooting, in both directions. 

So what next?   

 I suppose the first question traders will ask would be, "can the market trade to new highs"? And although I know it can... we're still trying to build a base, and it will probably be Dec. 17th (OPEX Friday), before stocks start looking toppy again. I try not to make long term predictions, because no matter how good you think you are, you're bound to be wrong. You really have to analyse this type of choppy market, day to day, BUT it's could take a little while for the market to get it's legs back, and there will probably be another pullback along the way. 

One day at a time. 

Follow the public charts, I'll be charting live at today's open. 

Take Care, AA 


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