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Friday, December 30, 2022

Santa Rally Takes Back All The Loses Of The Past Week!

 Santa Rally Takes Back All The Loses Of The Past Week!

Of Course the crooked lame stream media is going out of their way to keep from reporting on yesterday's Santa Rally, and instead report on how bad things are, but the charts don't lie! 

$SPX is poised to close at the highs for the week, and the Santa Rally isn't even officially over until Monday's close. As you can see on this chart, we've basically been stuck in a range all week.   

$NYSE - ended up over 1%. Possible wave "4". Trend remains - obviously - bullish 

Tech joins the party 

Internet & Cloud Computing Stocks Close up over 3.5%  

Consumer Discretionary also up - 2.5%

There's always a short squeeze somewhere, over the holidays! 

Sure, it wasn't the face melting rally, I've been predicting... but it was better than nothing, and in this lousy market we'll take what we can get! lol 

Next week, kicks off the beginning of the new year, and if money managers want to keep their cushy jobs in the financial services industry, they will have to stop going on Bloomberg, and making gloomy predictions, and instead, start putting money to work. 

In the meantime watch for my end of year wrap-up, to follow shortly. 

Happy New Year, 

Thursday, December 29, 2022

Tesla technical chart broken, on light holiday volume

 Wow, I can't remember the market being so slow, between Christmas, and New Years, but I've also probably never been so focused on seasonal trading, as I am in 2022. By the way; the next big event, markets will be paying attention to, is earnings season, which kicks off, next week!  

I continue to monitor markets, somewhat, but most sectors continue to consolidate sideways, and even tech can only manage to make slightly lower recent lows. Reminds me of the market we were trading in back in Oct., where the fast money continued to pound the bear drum, but then no sooner than the market washed out to a slightly lower low - just below the 3500 level - they were calling for another rally, and we were off to the races again!   

Speaking of lower recent lows, that brings me to Tesla  

Yesterday, I decided to pull up the Tesla chart, just to see what's going on there, and sure enough, the powers that be took Tesla down - on low volume - over the holidays. 

This, just happens to coincidence with Elon Musk's Twitter document dumps, which expose how the deep state - including the FBI - has been using Twitter to manipulated elections, and silence people who dare speak the truth, for what has apparently been going on for many years now. 

Makes me proud to have been on the right side of history, having been booted off Twitter, more than once... 

The FBI knows who I am 

Tweet from Dec., 3rd, 2015 

As I more recently stated in 2018

I could say a lot about the FBI, the rigged elections, rigged markets, and even the ongoing climate engineering, and this no doubt will all tie together nicely when the collapse finally comes. 

It wasn't only Twitter, but Facebook, and Google as well. It's what I have many times referred to as the evil, tech tyranny. 

 Speaking of truth bombs, when did we start calling winter weather, "bomb cyclones"? Did you know it's supposed to be 50 degrees in Chicago today? I can tell you from experience - after living in this area of the country for most my adult life, the climate engineering has intensified.    

If you're unfamiliar with the technology that's being used to create these short lived winter weather events, I recommend checking out Engineering Winter and the effects of Chemical Ice Nucleation @ the #1 source for all things having to do with the ongoing weather warfare,  in our skies.  

Getting back to the totally Engineered (rigged by the Criminally Insane) global equities market 

Every Day china tech stocks make new recent highs, yet we are to believe that US tech stocks remain "over-valued"? LOL 

$QQQ - see the May & June dip, followed by the Sept/Oct dips, and finally the Dec dip - trading at near the same level we've been trading at for the past - nearly - 8 months. 

The longer it takes to build a big base like this, the bigger the breakout is going to be.


$VIX Trend remains lower, and that means less fear in the market, regardless of what CNN says  

 That's right; even CNN is trying to spook investors out of this market, with their Fear & Greed Index

Today we finally see some buyers stepping up, in part, due to a bullish report put out by Morgan Stanley, but also due to the fact that the market has continued to sell off for nearly 5 weeks, in a row, and we seem to be approaching selling exhaustion.   

That's right, stocks can rally for no other reason that the sellers are tired, and complacent. 

I'm outta time, 


Tuesday, December 27, 2022

It's time to add another year to the chart view...

 Hope you all had a Merry Christmas, and a Happy New Year is following close behind...

Lately, I've been updating the charts, and adding another year to certain Long Term chart views, ie the  LT Financial Chart below. 

$DJUSFN (Dow Financials) 15 year chart, going back to the crash of 08. 

What I immediately recognize on that chart, is that the pullback of 2022, looks like it's only half way to the target - at the lower end of the channel - and if you've been following along, over the past few weeks, you should recognized this as the Carter Worth chart view, which doesn't line up at all on the $SPX, but seems to line up pretty darn well on the financial chart! 

But what I really want to talk about today is the $VIX. 

What's up with the $VIX? 

We're seeing the $VIX gap up in pre-market again, this morning, but the broader market is also higher. 

We saw the same thing earlier in the month, and I had a hard time reading that anomaly... as it turned out we saw the market sold into Options Expiration, so it appears that the bears won, so I'd have to say that the powers that be, bought puts ahead of a dash for the exits?      

I could hardly believe the $VIX managed to break above the 24 level, on Thursday, was it?  

$VIX pops above the 24 level on 12/22/2022 See Note on Thursdays update (= 13)  

I suppose it could've been that 13 number that spooked the market, or it could be the fact that we're ramping up our proxy war, with a nuclear super power, and congress is even inviting foreign leaders to come to the floor of the Senate.... 

Zelensky Thanks U.S. In Speech To Congress—But Calls For More Aid To Ukraine forbes 

In the coming days, Congress could approve another $44.9 billion in Ukraine-related funding as part of its 2023 fiscal year spending package. 

Follow the Money... 

Getting back to that $VIX chart

The pattern on that ST $VIX chart resembles a bearish H&S 

Looks like we're still on for that Santa Clause Rally I mentioned in the past 2 News Letters, regardless of the war in Ukraine.   

Happy New Year! Cheers! 


Thursday, December 22, 2022

Market Update 12/22/2022 (1+2+2+2+2+0+2+2) 12/22/2022 = Lucky 13!

 Not much to update, as trading remains pretty dull during the Hanukkah break, as expected, but I couldn't resist providing an update on a date, with so many 2s in it! 12/22/2022 (1+2+2+2+2+0+2+2) 12/22/2022  = Lucky 13! 

We're supposed to get socked with a snow storm in Chicago, today, and tomorrow, and I went out to do some last minute shopping, yesterday, and I can't remember ever seeing the stores so packed! There is no recession. 

 No recession means no bear market, and one chart proves it, The Russell 2000 (small caps) Index.

$RUT - If there was one place, where we would see a risk off environment, leading into a possible recession, this is where you would find it, but instead we've seen the opposite.  

To answer my own question: I think so!  

Let's analyze the above chart, and identify exactly what is going on here:

$RUT (IWM) - 3 year view 

1. Going back to 2020 - you can see where stocks gapped up, in an engineered short squeeze - as we headed into short covering season - just ahead of Thanksgiving (2020) - and that carried over all the way into the end of 2021, where you see a lot of bearish consolidation. 

2. Near the end we saw profit taking, and that continued into 2022, where we saw the gap that was left behind in 2020, fill. 

3. Ever since the gap fill we've seen bullish consolidation, as the lame stream media continues to report a lot of bearish stories. 

Funny stockcharts no longer allows you to chart the $RUT, but only the $IWM, but it is what it is - wave 4, as I've been saying all along. 

China  - up another 3% overnight. 

Looks like the Hang Seng pumpers want to test the 50 day ma again 

 $HSI - 50 day being tested... 

Stocks to watch: Apple 

Remember the lame stream media pointing to Apple, as if the sell-off in Apple was bearish sign of things to come? Well, that was the setup....

$AAPL breaks out. Trades into a bull flag on the 15 min. chart. 

Notice how 99% of the reporting coming out of the lame stream media is bearish? That's funny, because the bears only make up like 10% of traders, at any given time. Like I said, that's the setup. 

The Santa Claus Rally is still on, as I covered in the last update - you can review the targets there! 

Good Luck in 2023, 


Monday, December 19, 2022

Market Update 12/19/22 - Santa Claus Rally

This morning I added to Friday's Update, and totally debunked Carter Worth's bearish analysis. I just wanted to be sure, I wasn't missing something. CNBC has a bearish story to sell, to their overwhelmingly bearish - paying - audience, and I'm not buying any of it! 

Santa Claus Rally

If you caught the News Letter I sent out over the weekend, then you know I calling for a, "face melting, Santa Claus Rally", going into the New Year. I pointed to the pattern I identified on the DOW chart as a broadening top pattern

$INDU - watch for a continued pullback to the 200 day moving average, at the 32,455 level. From there, we should be clear for lift off.  

So, which sector is going to lift the DOW? None other than the most hated sector in the universe, and that would be Big Tech. 

$COMPQ - NASDAQ Perhaps consolidation continues (lower) ahead of next week.  


I'm also seeing a broadening pattern on Oil, which tested the lower end of the pattern on Friday. 

$USO (Oil) - Going higher 

Of course Money Managers are going to be forcesd to chase the gains in Energy, we saw in 2022. 

$CRAK - Energy ETF 

Needless to say, I'm bullish, after last week's heavy selling volume, ended on a lower $VIX. 

Have a Merry Christmas,  a Happy Hanukkah, and a Happy New Year! 




Friday, December 16, 2022

Weekly Wrap-up - Stocks Pull Back 1 Day Ahead of Options Expiration

 Looks like we finally got our pullback, and although every lame stream media outlet will try to make it sound like it's the end, for this rally, it's only 1 day. 

Just looks like a re-balancing, so that all those bullish bets, won't have to be paid, on this Friday OPEX. That would also explain the pop we saw in the $VIX this week (ahead of the selling), as well as the relatively low $VIX numbers we saw yesterday, not to mention the lack of fear in the bond market.

In other words, since this sell-off is only a re-balancing, around this OPEX date, that explains the lack of any panic selling. 

I was looking for at least a gap fill on the $VIX, but like I said, there's "no fear".... 

The Lame Stream Media tries to make this sell-off sound worse than it is, because they have a story to sell. 

Even the clowns on CNBC Fast Money were bearish, and they brought on Carter Worth, yet again, to show the same bearish chart he's been peddling for the past several weeks, and I've been waiting for this opportunity, to debunk that chart out of hand.

Debunking The "Chart Master"  

It was back in Sept., when I first saw this chart, before it had been posted to twitter. 

$SPX index chart - according to CNBC's "Chart Master", Carter Worth.

Note the red down-arrow. Wishful thinking, I guess.  

What's wrong with the above chart? 

As I explained back in Sept. 

I don't claim to be the "chart master", or the "gate keeper", but see my $SPX Chart below. 

Consolidating near the bottom of the range 

Here's where I think Carter worth got it wrong:
1. He drew his lower channel line first, then he drew the upper parallel channel. 

The 2 points that connect on his lower channel, are the capitulation points from the 08 crash, and the covid crash. This never was the lower end of a range, and to try to make it that now, is foolish.    

When I try to re-create the Carter Worth view, this is the chart I come up with. 

As you can see -the upper channel line doesn't match up very well, as far as a parallel channel goes, and if you look at the Carter Worth Chart, nothing on the top trend line, lines up, and that's because you don't draw a lower channel line, by connecting 2 capitulation points. 

This is what I refer to - in my chart legend - as the "black trend line", which is not to be confused with my blue channel lines.  

I'm going to call that chart totally debunked

A lot comes down to identifying a channel, and drawing the channel correctly (parallel), but maybe it's a broadening, ascending channel. 

Even so, there's no reason the market can't retest the highs, before taking out a lower low, next year, 

$SPX - possible broadening channel. Possible retest of the highs, or even a higher high... 

Short Term 

I believe the market is going higher, and that's based on nothing more than the idea that the shorts are going to be squeezed out, going into the end of the year. 

BUT there are also bullish indicators... 

$INDU - Golden Cross 

The opening bell just rang, so I gotta run. 

Take Care, AA 

Thursday, December 15, 2022

Better Late Than Never

 Yesterday, I called for a,"Sell The (FOMC) News Trade, which we did get, but the $VIX unexpectedly sold off, and the sellers has a lot of trouble trying to take the market down. Markets even turned green, at one point, as Powell hinted at the fact that "rates are near an appropriately restrictive level", paraphrasing...   

Regardless of what The Fed actually said, they did a smaller rate hike, than thay have in the recent past, and that's a taper, on the taper; I'd even go so far as to call it a "pivot". 

Doesn't matter what the fed said, either way it's a "sell the news", event,  but why was it delayed..? 

Better Late Than Never 

I've blogged on the fact that the US market doesn't trade as it used to trade, during normal trading hours; it seems that the selling has to be engineered in Brussels, or Germany. 

More proof that the entire thing it rigged by the money printers 

Today's trade, same as yesterday: 

Sell The News Confirmed 

Watch for the $VIX to take out yesterday's target, as well as, for the $USD to rocket skyward.

I don't have a downside target for the $SPX, because I have no skin in that game, and I was mostly busy patching concrete, yesterday. 

 I did take time to take some profits yesterday, and sitting on about 30% cash, which seems like a good strategy, given the circumstances. 


I haven't blogged on Gold for a while, but if the $USD is going to rocket, that can only translate to bad news for precious metals. 

I'm actually short Silver, but I think all precious metals are going to be headed in the same direction 

$SGOL chart complete with bearish candlestick analysis  

Speaking of Gold 

Do you realize that adjusted for inflation, gold has actually been making a series of new lows, ever since the peak in the Gold market, back in 1980? 

Is Gold An Inflation Hedge? forbes

It's a fascinating study, and I'll have more to say about it in a future update. 

Take Care, AA 

Wednesday, December 14, 2022

Sell The News Confirmed On This FOMC Wednesday

 Firstly: How about that gap fade yesterday?! 

The trading day started, on the heels of a better than expected inflation number, and that was enough to gap the market up to a recent highs, which were immediately sold, and that's what we call - in the business - a "gap fade", or the, "fade the gap", trade, than this was one of the best examples... I think, I've ever seen!  

That give back was enough to draw the bearish trading Apes, out of the woodwork. 

#DowJones was even seen trending... of course theses are mostly foreign scam artists pointing to the Dow Jones Industrial index, while trying to draw investors into a telegram, or discord, app. scam.  

 The spamming con artists may not be as powerful as they used to be, but Elon Musk, still has work to do, cleaning up Twitter! 

Speaking of Twitter

If Elon is smart, he will flip Twitter, no sooner than he's done fixing it! 

Getting back to yesterday's gap fade

I suppose that would've got more media coverage, if the lame stream media wasn't so hyperfocussed on the Sam Bankman-Fried FTX, dog and pony show, hearings in Washington, D.C. This is a case of look here, not there, and more proof that the media will run with whichever story the powers that be, want the public to focus on. No doubt this is to make Crypto look bad, in an effort to keep the soon to be extinct US dollar, on life support, for a little while longer. 

Getting to today's trade, ahead of the FOMC announcement, and OPEX Friday: 

Yesterday, I was still scratching my head, over the crazy $VIX action, we witnessed on Monday. See: Re: Yesterday's Highly Unusual $VIX Action Dec. 13th 

Yahoo News even mentioned it: 

VIX Swing Shows Stock Trader Nerves Fraying Before CPI

"$VIX jumps in sync with SPX, on a scale not seen in decades"

Well, as it turns out, some fast money traders have been selling Calls ahead of the Fed announcement, and are planning to sell the FOMC news announcement today, which all makes perfect sense. 

Sell The News Confirmed On This FOMC Wednesday 

I expect to be away from my desk, during today's FOMC announcement, but I am expecting a "sell the news" moment, and we may even see the market close red, on a higher $VIX, which is going to look like a red flag to most traders/ investors. 

$VIX - watch for a gap fill on the $VIX - which was left behind yesterday at the 25 level. It may even overshoot that level, but that is the level to watch. 

As far as Dec. OPEX goes, I would expect to retest yesterday's highs, going into the weekend. 

Take Care, AA  

Tuesday, December 13, 2022

Re: Yesterday's Highly Unusual $VIX Action

 It's worth noting the highly unusual $VIX action in yesterday's session.

The $VIX ended up over 9%, while all the majors also ending up over 1%? 

Yesterday afternoon: I was busy getting caught up on some charting, and tweeted an alert (seen below):

Last week: I heard that, investors are buying tech calls, but that would actually bring the $VIX down, so I'm really not sure what to make of yesterday's $VIX action, other than protection being put on, ahead of the close of 4th quarter window dressing season, and it may have something to do with a scheduled re-balancing, or sector rotation...? 

I would venture to guess that protection is being put on in the energy sector, but to be honest, I'm stumped. Energy did end up 2.5%, but it's such a small segment of the market, I wouldn't think options - in that sector alone - would move the $VIX so much. 

Regardless.... The $VIX remains contained, and the trend in equities remains up. 

The market remains rather slow ahead of the Fed, and then we have Friday OPEX, which comes early this month, and leads into more light volume holiday trading. This is prime time for manipulation, so minus a last minute shakeout on a scary FOMC announcement, or another bad inflation number, the market should just continue higher.   

Don't fight the trend, 


Monday, December 12, 2022

Weekly Wrap-up & A Look Ahead To The Fed Announcement This Week

 In case you missed the weekly news letter, which was sent out this morning, I remain bullish, and bullish manipulation we witnessed over the weekend - on 60 Minutes - confirms what I've been seeing in the charts!

Look, they don't send the Treasury Secretary out on a Sunday shows, to shoot down any recession fears, if the deep state is planning to pull the rug out.... 

Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen on recession fears, inflation and the war in Ukraine 


Chairman Powell's comments on Wednesdays FOMC announcement should echo the same message....  In fact it really doesn't matter what Powell says, because nobody is going to want to increase their short positions, going into the holidays. What ever Powell says is going to bring more clarity, and the market likes clarity, and if you don't believe me, believe the $VIX.  

Looking at Market Futures This Morning   

First off, we're seeing another amazing Monday morning surprise, this time in Natural Gas, and anyone unlucky enough to be holding $KOLD (the 2X leveraged NG Bear) this morning, will find themselves down another 20% at the open!

Of course, I'd like to short Natural Gas, but only a fool would rush into a trade like that! 

Speaking of the Energy trade: 

This morning I heard that the NASDAQ is adding an energy name to the index, and that would be none other than $FANG (Diamond Back Energy).  

FANG in the news 

Annual Changes to the Nasdaq-100 Index
The following six companies will be added to the Index: CoStar Group, Inc. (Nasdaq: CSGP), Rivian Automotive, Inc. (Nasdaq: RIVN), Warner Bros. Discovery, Inc. (Nasdaq: WBD), GlobalFoundries Inc. (Nasdaq: GFS), Baker Hughes Company (Nasdaq: BKR), and Diamondback Energy, Inc. (Nasdaq: FANG).

This will be the first time the NASDAQ has added an energy name... so watch for that one to be pumped to the moon in 2023. 

Good luck in 2023, 


Friday, December 9, 2022

My thoughts on the recent pullback continued, reboot

 The current market looks like the movie Groundhog Day. Same thing every day, no change, unchanged.  

This morning I watched the first 30 seconds of World Wide Exchange, and host actual called this a "5 day pull back", when the $SPX didn't even end the trading day lower, and even the $NDX ended the day up 1.2%. The lame stream media must think investors are stupid! 

Here's another thing the lame stream financial fake news doesn't report. China up 3% every day 

Breaking News: $CZH China Index up nearly 100% since Oct.! 

Sure, Bloomberg will report that covid zero policy is set to change, but they don't report that China has been on, and continues to be on, an absolute tear! 

$FXI was seen making new recent highs again yesterday, and up 3% again. 

Seeing a little pullback on a slightly higher than expected high CPI number. 

Should be a pretty boring trading day. 

See you next week,



Thursday, December 8, 2022

My Thoughts on the current pullback continued

Picking up from where we left off yesterday, and to be honest... I'm way behind on charting, after only taking a couple days off....

 I've been busy painting, and wallpapering, and then yesterday I lost internet completely, for nearly 8 hours At least it was a good productive day, despite the fact that cut myself, not once, but twice, in 1 day. Looks like I'm going to be hanging paper with gloved hands, today. Ouch!  

To get you caught back up to speed: 

We went from extremely dull trading, to exciting trading in 1 day, and even though the lame stream media is calling this a "5 day sell-off", the market was hardly even down yesterday. The $SPX traded relatively flat, ending on a spinning top candle, which denotes indecision, and that's short term bullish.

$SPX (ES1) Futures - this morning we see the candle I just mentioned, followed by a bullish hammer, being painted at support. Blue lines (trend). 
Think we can't trade back to 4200, on light holiday volume? See yesterday's update, because I'm still accepting offers on steel bridges, in Chicago, and they're going fast! These deals won't last!  

For the time being, dull trading returns, but I'm pretty sure there will be fireworks, soon enough!

CNBC Fast Money Traders think the market is going lower, and Carter Worth apparently thinks the red trend line on his chart, can't be broken lol   

Anyone who's been charting as long as this doofus, should know:

1. Trend lines are made to be broken.  

2. Holiday trading is unpredictable 

3. Money managers are always forced to chase performance, going into the end of the 4th Quarter. 

Of course there are a lot of former high fliers on sale, so we may even see some bargain hunting, in beaten up tech, and semiconductors. 

As I tweeted yesterday Semi's are trading in the same range they've been trading in for several weeks now. 

Absent some catastrophic bad news, in the near future, we should close out 2022, like any other year. 

Short Term 

Someone on fast money (the show) was talking about how the market would probably remain directionless, ahead of the next FOMC announcement, and even a broken clock is right, 2 times per day, but I thought that was some pretty good analysis of the current situation. 

Tomorrow - Friday Morning 

8:30 amProducer price index final demandNov.

11 amNY Fed 1-year inflation expectationsNov.--5.9%
11 amNY Fed 5-year inflation expectationsNov.--2.4%


8:30 amConsumer price indexNov.--0.4%
8:30 amCore CPINov.--0.3%
8:30 amCPI (year-on-year)Nov.--7.8%
8:30 amCore CPI (year-on-year)Nov.--6.3%
8:30 amCPI excluding shelter (3-month rolling annualized rate)Nov.--1.4%

8:30 amImport price indexNov.---0.2%
2 pmFederal funds rate announcement--3.75%-4.00%
2 pmSEP median federal funds rate for end of 2023--4.50%-4.75%
2:30 pmFed Chair Jerome Powell news conference

Take Care, AA