Tuesday, September 27, 2022

Market Update 9/27/22 - Washout To Lower Recent Lows

Thought I'd offer an updated financial chart. Don't want to leave anyone hanging, after the chart broke last week.   

 $DJUSFN - This looks like a slight washout to a lower low.  


 Of course they had to try to shake the weak hands, while reporting how household credit card debt has risen, but this is what they do. Bullish 

I'm not trading financials, but I would be a buyer, of $FAS, right here! 

The black line becomes your stop. 

I suppose Tech, and everything else is also about to bounce out of the hole, after yesterday's little shakeout, but there are plenty of opportunities, outside of the US technology space. 

One thing I noticed yesterday, is that they took out the June low on the DOW, of all things, so that's another thing to watch. 

Who takes down the DOW in a Monday downside surprise? 

I suspect British Hedge Funds, are behind the recent shakeout, since Bloomberg keeps talking about the British Pound. 

Take Care, AA 

Sunday, September 25, 2022

Market Update 9/24/22 - Surveying The Damage After Last Weeks Sell-off

 I was away from my desk, most the day, on Friday, but I still kept tabs on the market, and checked in after lunch, just in time to catch some fake news!  

Bloomberg reports: "Market makes a new 2 year low" (paraphrasing)  

I have no idea what chart view Bloomberg is using, but this fact checker is calling, Bullshit on that!  

Does this look like new 2 year lows to you? 



It was from about the time of that fake news report that the Market recovered somewhat - probably short covering, but possibly program buying - going into the close. 

Without revealing any of my proprietary chart targets, I can tell you that we've only traded, from one bullish set-up, into another.

Another Bullish setup 

We see several indices back-testing support, at critical moving averages, and since the market is being traded, mostly by machines, these levels are going to be bought in the blink of an eye, and with no regard to the fake news, or the $VIX. This is where you are going to see the boys separated from the men, so to speak. 

Here's a stat you won't hear the rats in the financial fake news report: 

The $NDX (The NASDAQ 100) back-tests the 200 day moving average, for the first time since the crash of 09, which marked the beginning of a bull market that has continued for the past 20+ years!

But there's more...! [edited for content because these targets are just too valuable to be giving away, free]  

I wish I could show you the charts, but I'm no longer able to reveal my targets to traders who don't even support the cause.

Broken Charts

We did see several sector charts break, including Gold, Oil, and Energy, which was good to see, and this sure beats the summer doldrums, we've had to try to navigate, over the past several months.   

We saw the rug pulled on the energy sector, as the $XOP was taken down below the 200 day moving average, to close the day down another 8%! BOOM! 

Energy

I recall not too long ago, when the Fast Money clowns were telling retail investors how great the Energy trade was! Of course I saw this pullback coming, from a mile away, and made some good gains over the past couple weeks, trading it (short). 

SeeMarket Update 8/30/22 CNBC Fast Money Traders Like Energy

Leveraged ETFs 

We also saw some leveraged ETF charts break, which is great to see, because traders shouldn't be relying on patterns on these skewed charts anyhow. Maybe now we'll see less of that. 

Getting back to the broader market: 

As I predicted on Friday, there's a very good chance we're going to continue to trade the range, and here we are trading near the bottom of it, and on an even more bullish footing! 

What I can tell you is that 2 weeks of selling into a double bottom, does not point to a continuing bear market, but more likely a pullback in wave (B).  

Expecting a face melting rally in a powerful wave C. 



Good luck Next Week, AA 


Friday, September 23, 2022

Market Update 9/23/22 - Did I Get It Wrong This Time?

  Did I Get It Wrong This Time? 

I see market futures down again, and Germany down over 2%, and that's a little concerning. 

So, first thing I decided to do this morning - after starting this blog - was to chart the $DAX

$DAX 40 - Funny, how bearish traders get on a simple retest of the lows, but this is nothing to be afraid of. 



 I'm not infallible, so there's always the possibility that I'm wrong - about a bullish reversal - but I don't give up easily. Even at the height of the covid pandemic, I maintained that it was going to be used an excuse to print more money, and that the stock market would make, "new all time highs", and this even after more the charts were still broken. Sure, I could've been wrong..!  

Thursday, September 22, 2022

Market Update 9/22/22 - We got our shakeout on the FOMC announcement!

 I was up around 2:30AM this morning, with dollar signs in my eyes; super excited, after watching the bears take out the target I published in Monday's update

$SPX - the 3800 target looks good, and that gap fill target... 


The gap fill target was also alerted to, in my Sept 15th, update

$SPX DCS chart - The gap fill actually occurred at yesterday's close, and I alerted to that in my LinkedIn, after the closing bell.  


  Of course we saw futures sell off a little further, in (ah) after hours trading, and I even called the reversal in ES1 contracts. I don't even trade futures, but it's good practice... and I just love what I do! 

$SPX ES1 Futures This webull screenshot, from last night. 


The Breakout 


Very exciting! 

6:50 AM CST: I'm watching futures settle right around the 3800 target. 

I still believe this rally - the one which started back in June - has legs.

I watched one (guest) analyst on CNBC come on, on Tuesday, and predict that the market would continue to trade in the same range, we've been trading in for the past several weeks, and I think that could be right. 

I pointed this out, back in early August 

I've just been absolutely killing it this year, and making some new connections on linkedIn. I suspect that before long I'll be working for a fund manager, hopefully in beautiful Bermuda!  

Plan and book your whole trip on Expedia   

Top Romantic Vacation Packages in Bermuda  

I make a commission on purchases made using affiliate links provided 

Find your dream vacation package on Expedia

$WSLH - Wilshire 5000 Chart added to the public charts area 





Take Care, and have a great weekend, if I don't see you again, 

AA 



Wednesday, September 21, 2022

Market Update 9/21/22 - Today's The Federal Reserve Announcement

Today's The Federal Reserve Announcement

Of course today is the fed announcement, and the BofE, and maybe we see another little shakeout on this breaking news, but the market is going to see this as a green light. 

Everybody knows rates are rising.

I'm doing much better today, after getting caught up on some lost sleep, yesterday.  You've heard of good sleeping weather? Well, this is what I would call a good sleeping - rather than trading - environment. I mean how boring is this?  

Placing a rare, "Buy and Hold", on a certain sector. More on that below.  

What's with this dull market? 

At this point, I'm sure the bears are wondering why the market can't seem to sell-off like it did - 5 days ago (yesterday/Technical Tuesday) to be exact. Ever since, trading has been very dull, and you should all know why that is, after all I've taught you over the past several years. Impress me, by explaining to me, why you believe this is, in the comments section, and I'll be happy to throw you some free charts!   

There's a hint - contained in the previous paragraph - as to what I'm seeing in this market, and that's all you get for free, but I'll be sure to fill you in, after I make some killer money next week. 

I've got this! 


Today's Pinned Tweet 

To review the recent action: 

1. Last Tuesday - the rug was pulled just below the 50 day moving average, and the gains of the previous week, given back in 1 day. Even I was a little surprised by this, and this is coming from someone who doesn't get surprised too often, anymore. The reason I was surprised, was not that the CPI number was that bad, but that after the market, after gapping up, more than once, in the previous week, that the market would gap down, and momentum would shift to the downside, so abruptly! You just don't normally see momentum shifts like this, but this was a very well coordinated bear raid. 

2. Over the next/past several days trading has slowed to a trickle, with the DOW only trading 300 points lower, than last week's low of 31k (even).  Another even number target.  

3. This morning we see market futures waffling again, and this in the face of the #1 threat that faces our survival as a species - nuclear annihilation. 

Putin announces ‘partial mobilisation’ of Russia and threatens nuclear retaliation saying ‘I’m not bluffing’ theguardian 

At least Europe is smart enough to reduce risk, on this news, as we see futures mostly red in the UK. but not in the US! There's a very logical reason for this, and the answer to this conundrum is one you might not expect, but this alone is well worth the price of admission. Don't miss this 1 time offer, to learn something that's not only going to help you trade this week, and next, but for years to come!    

Good luck, AA 






Tuesday, September 20, 2022

Market Update - Oil trades into the Danger Zone

 Before I get to the Oil trade, can you believe how they rushed in and bought the dip, at yesterday's opening bell? I can, after pointing out the bullish setup, for stocks, and the real reason why the $VIX remains so low.... 

Financials even led... as predicted.

Was that the bottom in equities? Probably not, since we haven't seen the target taken out on the $SPX, but you just never know. I don't like that the already bloated energy sector also led.  

My feeling this morning is that if markets aren't going to price in a 1% hike, then the fed announcement may be sold, in another taper tantrum. Another, "sell the news event", possible.    

Maybe I'm not thinking too clearly this morning, after so little sleep. I think the insomnia could be a seasonal thing, but I am a little concerned with the market action. 

Getting to my warning on the Oil trade: 

In one of my most recent updates I mentioned Carter Worth, but I failed to mention that he, and the rest of the fast money guys, are all bullish Oil, and energy.  

I'm going to show you why I'm nervous about what they are seeing in the Oil charts  

I already pointed to this one twitter, this morning 


 What's wrong with that chart? The black trend line, isn't valid.  


Why the warning? Because there's fast money already buying that bogus trend line, and, "fast money in, fast money out". When their black line breaks, they are going to know exactly what to do! 

Without giving away, my targets on US crude oil - and that's why I'm only showing the BRENT chart, and an incomplete chart at that - I think Oil could easily sell off another 10%  

Something I just realized is that BRENT closed yesterday at exactly $92, and I think that's not a coincidence!  

I have more charting to do! 

And if you're trading crude oil, then you need my charts! $100 gets you, all you need for 30 days. 

If you need targets on anything, I have the charts you need. 

In the real news, 

We're currently fighting a proxy war with Russia, and making military threats against China, but in order to please his base, Biden is simultaneously weakening US Military. Of course that story will never be reported. 

House Democrats push Biden to unleash even more emergency oil

cnn

1 week ago

U.S. emergency oil reserves tumble to lowest since 1984 Reuters

16 hours ago 

U.S. to sell up to 10 mln bbls of oil from SPR for Nov. delivery Reuters 

Fake News 

Stock Market Crash News 

Dow's 500-point crash usa today




Yes you read that right! 500 points trimmed off the Dow, is being called a "crash". That's over the top, on the overly bearish sentiment indicator. 

I've never seen so much stupidity, and dishonesty in the media; in my entire life! 

Take Care, AA 


Monday, September 19, 2022

Market Update 9/18/22 - What to expect in the coming week

I started this update on Sunday 9/18/22, while I was doing some extra charting, and just wrapping it up this morning (Monday).  

Fridays close looked weak, and the VIX, which I wrote about in a separate article on over the weekend... held support, and continues to trend up. 

This is how I got it right, and usually get it right, on a daily basis, by accurately reading the VIX.  

Market Update 9/7/22 - Why is the $VIX so low?

$VIX support shouted out from my twitter feed on Friday

That's right about where it closed, so we may be looking at another downside surprise on Monday  

Tweeted out again last night, when futures were still pointing up. 

Longer tern 

Still looks like the market is trading into a classic bottoming formation 

As I tweeted on Friday:


$SPX - the 3800 target looks good, and that gap fill target seems to be the goal of the so called experts in the lame stream media, who like to make excuses for why the $VIX remains contained, as they usually do, when they're setting a bear trap. 

As I said in my weekend update: 

Only trust the $VIX
(not the so called experts) 

Calling the broader market direction is easy, predicting targets, and timelines, is a lot of work 

Additional $SPX Charts, sector charts, Crypto, Gold, as well as timelines available upon request. Simply make a $100 donation to my personal PayPal, and then PM me.... 

Back to the bear trap: 

All this talk, of selling the market on a contained $VIX, smells like another setup. I can smell BS from a mile away, and the more the pros make excuses for why the $VIX isn't popping, the guiltier they look. I realized this was what I was seeing on Friday, when I was watching a little CNBC.

 I watched a little "options action (the CNBC show) after Friday's close, in order to get a good read on what the enemy is doing, and Carter Worth - the one they now call "the chart master" - which is downright laughable - must have pointed to half a dozen bullish setups, yet he doesn't see the one on the one on the $SPX? I think the only thing I can agree with him on is Gold, because it's testing long term support, and any idiot with a long term chart can see that! 

He may also be right on Oil, and I already called $85 support....     

Of course they all tried to make excuses for why the $VIX isn't popping.

The real reason why the $VIX isn't popping    

  • The breadth of this market sell-off has been very narrow. 

a. Thursday, financials actually ended up.  

b. Friday semiconductors ended about flat. 

c. The energy bears were the biggest losers last week, but energy is not heavily weighted sector. 

Turns out it was the Energy bears who won, on Sept. OPEX, and if you trusted my analysis on Energy and had the guts to buy PUTS, you won big! 

  • Simply put; the bulls are playing some kind of shell game, as they quietly re-baleen their holdings ahead of 3rd quarter window dressing.   

Questions 

I still have a lot of questions about this market, and Joe Biden threatening to use military action, against, yet another super-power doesn't help. 

 Biden says U.S. (forces) would defend Taiwan in a Chinese invasion reuters 

Saturday, September 17, 2022

Market Update 9/7/22 - Why is the $VIX so low?

 Why is the $VIX so low? 

This question seems to be getting asked a lot, lately, and the answers I'm seeing, that are being given by the so called "experts", just don't jive.

The first thing the so called experts like to claim, is that, "The $VIX isn't a fear gauge". 

While technically true, the $VIX wasn't created to be, nor is it advertised as, a "fear gauge". 

See the short video clip provided by the cboe: Making Sense of the VIX Index


What the $VIX actually measures is implied volatility, as expressed by options buying on the $SPX. That's what actually moves the $VIX. 

You've all heard that, "the market doesn't like uncertainty", well...   

  • When uncertainty (fear) is high, investors load up on PUT options.

  • When uncertainty (fear) is low, then investors will buy Call options. 

In short, the $VIX is actually a measure of uncertainty (fear) in the market.  

Fact checking the so called experts claims that the $VIX isn't a fear gauge: FALSE    

Taking a look at the current $VIX in today's market environment 

 
Although the $VIX trading at 26 isn't historically "low", by any sense of the word, as traders, we recognize that the $VIX is not spiking higher, as it usually does, in a broad market sell-off. 
Why is this, and why are the experts doing everything in their power, to lie about it?  

The main reason - as far as I can tell - is that this simply isn't a broad market sell-off,
 The market breadth doesn't point to a shakeout across the board, but more of a re-balancing, as we trade into the second half of the year. 

Certain sectors are selling off, and certain sectors aren't: 

Thursday we actually saw financials up, and yesterday (Options Expiration) Friday, the semiconductor sector actually ended up slightly. While we did see a little shakeout in the energy sector, that sector is not heavily weighted, and doesn't affect the $VIX much. We saw the Russell 2000 down quite a bit, but again the $VIX which correlates with the Russell (the $RVX), was only up 1%.   

The experts, most of whom work for one hedge fund or another, don't want to let on to what's really going on, because these are the folks who move markets. These are the money managers, and the market movers, and they don't want to show their hand. They are in the business of making money, and that doesn't necessarily mean, making you money, so be careful who you trust!     

Only trust the $VIX, not what you see being reported by the financial fake news. When the market is bracing itself for a correction, as it was in the beginning of the year, when the $VIX traded straight to 38.94, but ever since then, the $VIX has continued it's descent. Even as the main stream media reports a war with Russia, and the threat that the fed is going to cause a hard landing, or a "recession".   

Friday, September 16, 2022

Market Update 9/16/22 - weekly wrap-up

 I should probably wait until after today's trading session to wrap-up the trading week, but I don't like working weekends. If it becomes necessary, I can always add a second update, but I think we're seeing a reversal this morning.

Today, I'm giving away free charts, so if you have money waiting to be put to work, this could be your lucky day! 

I've already had another excellent week, as it turns out! 

It was one of those rare moments when you get it perfectly right, and like I said on twitter... 

    

And this:


And the rug pulled out on the Oil trade 







This morning

 Many of you are probably asking, "what triangle"? 

This Triangle! You see, I've been doing this so long, that at this point, I recognize chart patterns instinctively. I no longer need to draw them, although many times I still do, but this one was obvious. 


It's called an ending diagonal triangle. Don't forget it! 


GOLD 

I like gold in my pocket, but I also like the gold trade here 

If you were paying attention yesterday, you should already be long 

The reversal on a st view, this morning 

Yesterday, I was watching the chart chick on Bloomberg talking to some idiot about the $VIX, and they were trying to spin some tall tail about why the market could crash, yet the $VIX could stay down around the 30 level? Total lie! These people are looking for a 20% sell-off on the $SPX, and obviously have skin in the game! I'll give chart chick the benefit of the doubt, and say, she let this shark come on her show, as a personal favor, but I'm sorry I even turned the sound up to listen to that garbage.   

I'm not going to make a prediction on the $VIX, because it's better to trade the market you have, than the market you want, but I know exactly where the $VIX is going in a 20% market correction, and it ain't gonna look like 30. Try 34, 35, 36's, $VIX 62.50, even....! 

But there's just absolutely no fear in this market, when the $VIX ends the day up only .42%, as it did yesterday. 

Take care, and have a great weekend! 

AA 


Thursday, September 15, 2022

Market Update 9/15/22 - This Market Is In Trouble?


Market Is In Trouble? 

...says who? Some analysis at Morgan Stanley? 

Look, if you've followed me for any length of time, then you already know that Morgan Stanley is one of the firms who has been bearish, and aggressively shorting the market, for some time. This is nothing new. 

Others like JPM, are bullish, so you have this back and forth, between the bulls and the bears, but in the end these people are on the same team, kind of like the Democrats and Republicans. Both sides are out to screw us, and take our hard earned money.

But who is this character who trolled me yesterday? Look closely and you'll see his identity is disguised, and his twitter profile provides a location in Texas, and nothing else. I suspect he works for one of the hedge funds.  I assume, anyone who takes time out of their busy schedule to troll me, is being paid to do so, and they usually came at me with a stupid question like, "you can't be serious".    

1. #Rule in trading, never trust anyone, who claims to be anonymous.  

On a more serious note: 

I don't claim to be a psychic, but I do have this uncanny ability to piece things together. I don't know what to call it, other than intuitive, but there's something more to it. For instance; I knew something bad was coming, a couple years before Covid, and the lock-downs that followed, and I started preparing way ahead of the event. I saw it coming in the charts, even though I didn't actually know what "it" was. 

Most recently is was Pelosis trip to Taiwan, and the $SOX trade, but I could give 100's of examples...  

Anyhow, way before I saw the story - below - in the news, I knew something was up.  Blinken has made several trips to Ukraine, over the past several months, so I knew we must be up to no good!  

     
Blinken says Ukraine has made 'significant progress' in counteroffensive Reuters 



This morning this all came together in a tweet, I found in my timeline.

What I'm actually referring to is the content of the video, of what look like US special forces on the ground.

This morning we see Putin, and XI, meeting, and this is significant, from a biblical perspective. 

In Prophecy right now - in a 90 sec video - linked thetrumpet.com


Mind blowing!

As I tweeted this morning 

If ever there was a time to prepare, that time is now! 

As far as today's trade, and the trade for the next several months, my outlook hasn't changed 

Trading this week reminds me of the same old trade we've been seeing for the past several months. Sell Tech, and pile into Energy. I'm not sure how much longer that can last, but I'm not chasing the herd. 

This market also reminds me of June, and July, where we were left waiting for the market to build as base, as others continued to call for "capitulation". 

The chart says it all: 

We either go back and fill the gap that was left behind in June - which I believe is foolishness 

Or we continue rallying into the Nov. Election 

$SPX - Market gaps up several days in a row. Bears come in an short it with a heavy hand. Trend remains higher, possibly much higher. We'll see... 



Thinking about adding the above chart to the public charts area, now that it looks like we have a nice setup, after this weeks pullback. 

Take Care, AA 






   

Wednesday, September 14, 2022

Market Update 9/14/22 - Surveying the Damage After Yesterday's Selling

Surveying the Damage After Yesterday's Selling 

 I'm going to refer to yesterday's sell-off, as "selling", because it's pretty obvious to me that those who sold yesterday's CPI number are not investors, but pro traders who upon returning from summer break, had already decided it would be cute to take the $SPX down below the 50 day moving average, and trigger some sell orders, and this is exactly what they did!

The lousy Inflation number was a good excuse to rob investors. This is what #Wallstreet does best

— Veteran Market Timer (@3Xtraders) September 13, 2022

 I suspect they've been planning this for at least a few days, because of the way the $VIX buyers were seen jumping the gun, and pressing the 50 day moving average, on Monday. Thankfully the market wasn't taken down on Monday, or I might have been left holding the bag, but as I explained on Twitter, I was already leveraged (short), when I took profits.... 

Getting back to this engineered sell-off 

$SPX taken down - precisely - just below the 50 day ma. Think the corporate owned main stream media - with all their technology - doesn't see this for what it is, a shake down?  

This is so obvious, yet nobody on the corporate owned media will even touch it. Instead, they continue to fan the flames, of ever increasing, interest rate hikes, in an election year? Preposterous!   

The idea is that if inflation is high, the fed will start raising rates, at a faster rate, and that's a good excuse for a taper tantrum, yet the $VIX - as I eluded to again in yesterday's updates remains contained.

 Each time the market sells off on the same old news, and the $VIX continues to make lower highs. Yesterday,  the $VIX managed to eke out, another slightly higher recent high, but fear is way below where is was back in May and June, were the $VIX was trading in the high 30's.  

Review everything I pointed to in yesterday's updates and you should see what's likely about to happen next, and I would be betting on the house here, since every retail investor, and even as few hedge funds - who have been mostly wrong this year - is short. 

The next chart - attached to my tweet - says it all: 

Counts like a panic wave "e" zigzag. 2. Looks like a broadening top. 

Without giving away where I believe the market is going to be trading in November, I can tell you that the $VIX is the thing to watch, and even Karen Finerman at CNBC knows that much  


Where's the market likely going next? 

Make a hefty - $100 - donation to this website, and I'll be happy to reveal my upside targets.  

Of course the bears would like to fill the gap's left behind back in July, because they obviously missed the boat. 

Someone on LinkedIn actually had the nerve to ask me yesterday, what I would buy in order to hedge against a market crash - suggesting 3X short tech ($TECS or $SQQQ) or some other nonsense - I didn't pay that much attention because this doofus obviously doesn't even follow this blog, or he would know where I stand....

For months I've been telling folks to sell the so called safety trades - Heakthcare/ Utilities/ Commodities), and to get over your fear, or you're going to end up broke, just like most every retail short seller I know did in 08, because the market didn't crash until we were all squeezed out.  That ain't going to happen a second time, not in my lifetime! 

This is what I want you to do with $TECS this morning 





Take Care, AA       

     







Tuesday, September 13, 2022

Market Update 9/13/22 - 5 Reasons Why Today's Sell-off Is Either Bullish, or Bearish

 I figured I'd do a quick update, since we've seen quite a pullback this morning. 

 The $VIX was bought at the 50 day moving average, so this selling seems to have been planned, ahead of time. 

$VIX  1. bought at the 50 day ma. 2. Sold at the top of the range - in black. 


The $SPX was also taken down at the 50 day ma. Really an armature looking shakeout, if you ask me. 

That's all market bullish, and especially so, with OPEX Friday, only a few days a away! 

2. It's also Bullish because money needs to be put to work, as Money managers return from their summer break, and you can bet these are some of the same people shorting the market this morning. 

3. Gap Fills are bullish targets. The only sector I'm watching that hasn't filled the gaps left behind over the past several days, are in the Energy sector. 

Russell 2000 offers a good example of gaps being fill, as well as the gap left behind this morning 



4. The trend remains very much higher 

$SPX - 30 min. view 


5. Is the timing with Sept. OPEX Friday just around the corner! 

Easy bullish call 

Don't fight the trend, friend. 

Good Luck, AA 


Market Update 9/13/22 - How to Trade the Most Hated Rally of the Year

 This rally is starting to look a lot like the previous one. $SOX isn't leading tech, and money continues to flow into defensive sectors, and speculative trades like Silver, and crypto.  

Still it was a good trade. Very predictable, and tradeable. $FAS - and most other 3X leveraged bull ETF's are up nearly 20% from where I called the bottom of wave A, and nobody seems to be excited about it?     

I haven't had any trouble trading this rally, after calling the bottom last week, but apparently some traders, and even quite a few hedge funds have.... so, I thought I'd offer some tips, and clear a few things up. 

Why would traders prefer to hate a rally, than make money trading one?

1. Overwhelming bearish sentiment can leave you like a deer in the headlights, when you should be pulling the trigger on a bottom. You'll have to figure out how to get over your own bias, on your own, but I have a couple tips. 

a. Charting the $VIX helps me get past my own bearishness. If the $VIX isn't showing any fear, and it's not trading at complacency levels (below 12 for instance), then the fear is only in your own gut. 

b. Fear is contagious, so tune out social media, and trade alone. Many folks will try to convince you that you shouldn't trade alone, but most of them have something to sell you. When I trade I don't want suggestions, or outside opinions.    

c. Tune out the overwhelmingly bearish news. Most times the news is not that bad. What's the market worried about today? That the fed is going to raise rates too much, or too fast. and cause a recession, although we won't call it "recession"? 

Look, the fed has come out and said, "we're going to fight inflation", 100's of times, and the lame stream media, has reported it over a thousand times, but in actuality the fed has done everything in it's power to NOT act, and a year later, rates remain at ridiculously low levels, historically speaking. There's an old saying, "money talks, bullshit walks".     

Now you hear the official narrative change to one of "deflation", or
"disinflation", just in time... and just as I have been predicting for months. 

29 minutes ago: 

The Fed is fighting inflation. Could deflation be its next battle? cnn fake news 

What's "transitory", as it turns out, is the feds empty promises to pull the punch bowl away, in an election year, but I digress!   

2. Learn Elliott Wave Theory - Elliott Wave Theory may not be a magic bullet, but it sure is a great tool to have in your tool box.  I recognized that last weeks, "Tuesday surprise" (shakeout) looked like an oversold condition, and counted like a "zigzag" (on the $VIX). If you knew what a "zigzag pattern" was, you would've had a good idea about was probably about to come next.

AAPL - Trades into an oversold zigzag - looks like an oversold wave "b" (of wave iv) possibly. Wave c is powerful, like an impulse.   




3. Markets are cyclical - how many times do I have to point out that money managers return from vacation in Sept. and their job is to put money to work. Sure, some years Sept. may not be a great month, but what if the market is already oversold..?  

I had a lot more I wanted to get to today, but I think it's better to teach a man how to fish, than hand him a fish.    

How much longer can this rally last? 

1. This rally already seems to be losing steam, and I suspect the momentum is about to grind to a halt, but you know how this market is. It's seems to continue trading stupidly, for much longer than one would expect. Some of this probably has to do with the timing around Friday's Monthy OPEX. 

2. This is just a much harder market to trade, with machines, and retail traders making their decisions based on meaningless moving averages, and so much dumb money still in the system. 

3. The fed printed so much money, and the government continues to spend hand over fist, and that money remains in the system, and has to go somewhere. 

 Here are some places I see the dumb money going: 

1. Crypto 

2. Healthcare 

3. Utilities 

4. Commodities 

5.  Real estate bubbles 

When this all unwinds, I'm not sure where the money goes, but into the bottomless pit? This is what deflation is all about, and there will be few places to hide...   

Take Care, AA 


P.S. related news 



 

Monday, September 12, 2022

Market Update Saturday 9/10/22 - Just Another Short Squeeze Friday, or Could Things Be Different This Time?

I started this update Saturday morning, but didn't get very far; Picking up where I left off... 

Was Friday's Trade, Just Another Short Squeeze Friday, or Could Things Be Different This Time? 

I believe, Short Squeeze Friday, is a term we coined during the '08 crash; although it may go back earlier; I couldn't find any historical context for it.   

I pointed out on Friday that this looked like a bear trap, and it wasn't long after the opening bell, I was able to confirm it. 

The bears don't like being trapped going into a weekend, and especially, the first (trading) Monday of the month, after the long summer break.   

9 Short Squeeze Stocks That Could Take Off in September money.usnews.com

All the above information I've provided over the past several months, should help you to trade future rallies that take place this time of year, if you somehow managed to miss this one.   

$SPX 30 min chart - Tweeted Friday - shows exactly how the bears were trapped - as the opening bid was raised above resistance.  

2. The market also broke out above the right shoulder I pointed on in Friday's update. 

3. The $SPX broke above the 50 day moving average, which triggered more buying. 

Note: This morning the DOW is set to breakout above the 50 day ma... 


I'm not sure if this rally has legs longer, term; resistance looks like the 4175 level on the $SPX, as seen on the short term chart above, but there's also resistance, at the 200 day moving average.   

I think the catalyst for a pullback could be a week from today, ahead of the next fed announcement.

BofE also reports on the 22nd, after postponing the decision for a week, after the death of QEII.   

 Monthly OPEX is this Friday - looks bullish at this point - now that the bears have been trapped  

FOMC meets the 21-22 - could see a pullback ahead of that. Possibly a nasty Monday hangover, after Sept. OPEX? 

Oil & Energy 

Last week I eluded to the rigged oil trade, but I didn't reveal it in the charts - except on twitter 

This $OIL chart shows where the lower trend line was pulled, and the 200 day moving average taken out as well.... 
$OIL - updated chart - Today we see $OIL back-testing res. at my red line 


So, in hindsight, not only did the market bears get schlonged on Friday, but so did the Oil bears...  

I don't usually like to reveal my personal trades, but I did tweet this on Friday

As well as this... 

Futures look pretty weak this morning, but green non-the-less 

Looks like the $SPX 4100 level is going to be the level to watch this morning

Also watching the short term trend on the NASDAQ - obvious support at the 50 day ma 

 

Oil and Gas drillers have rallied sufficiently into what could be a wave 2 suckers rally. 


I still see lots of bulls coming on Bloomberg to pump their overweight positions in energy, and as far as I know, the fast money traders are still bullish... so I'd look for a correction there. 




Good luck this week, 
AA





Friday, September 9, 2022

Market Update 9/9/22 - Weekly Wrap-up

 As I eluded to yesterday, markets don't seem too predictable this week, but I did get the market's reaction to yesterday's ECB announcement right, as well as the $VIX levels...  

From Yesterday's Update

If I'm right then we should see the $VIX continue to break below the 24.60 level

In hindsight: 

1. The market tried to sell the ECB news, but the $VIX was immediately sold at res., and before long it had rolled over, and broke support.  

2. Later in the day we saw the market sell off again, as the $VIX was driven above the magic "24.60" level. The short sellers may have even used the queens death as a reason to sell, although the news didn't actually break until a little later in the trading day, and it was at that point, trading ground to a complete halt. I mean the volume went from light, to 0, it seemed, which I find amazing, considering I had already seen this in the charts, and I'd expect dull markets to continue into next week, and you know what they say, "Never sell a dull market" 

What is with Chairman Powell speaking over the ECB. It seems like all these fed officials do is talk talk talk. Does the market, really need the same thing to be said over and over again?  

US stocks close higher despite Powell’s hawkish messaging financialtimes 

FX Demo Trades 

I did find a couple FX trades ahead of the ECB: 

  1. Shorted the $USD into strength in what looked like a parabolic move, complete with main streme media hype 

This morning

I also sold precious metals which worked out pretty well. 

There's always a trade somewhere 

Just goes to show, there's always a trade somewhere, and this is the reason I started following FX markets, years ago, and if you're not familiar with FX, you should at least be charting FX, and trading a Demo account, and the same goes for Crypto, which has quickly grown into a monster. 

If you limit yourself to only trading the SPY, or $SPX futures, you are setting yourself up for failure: 

For one; you aren't even diversified if you're putting all your eggs in one basket.  

2. You're not even looking for opportunities outside your comfort zone 

In comparison, I have 100 different trades, in 5 different markets to choose from. Commodities, FX, Crypto, and Equities, not to mention foreign markets, and treasuries. 

This also helps explain why I'm not drawing much of a crowd anymore. It's counter-productive for me to become obsessed with any one trade. Gold for instance; let the gold bugs worry about the direction of gold, and waste years waiting for gold to out-perform oil. I don't need that!  

Of course these FX trades is only good practice for when I'm trading leveraged accounts, and able to get in and out of trades on an intra-day basis. Sure, I'll still have to wait for trades to settle, but as I always say, "never be in a hurry to trade". 

Wrapping up the market action for the week:

Energy

The rug was pulled on NatGas, Oil, and Energy. Perhaps this was only Wall Street dirty tricks, pulled by a few hedge funds, as they returned to their trading desks, after the long summer break? It's too soon to say... 

The $SPX found support above the 2950 level, and is poised to overtake the 50 day moving average, at the open, and that all but guarantees that the bulls are going to win, on this weekly Options Expiration Friday. This probably also means that money managers who don't return until next week, will be forced to chase performance. 

$SPX - this super bearish looking chart is a good example of why I'm not sure of the short term direction. There's really no chart pattern I can hang my hat on. I'm also uncertain of the direction of the $VIX, but $VIX 20+ is no place to become complacent.


Technically the st trend is down, but you'd be hard pressed to find a pattern, or a channel. 

$WLSH - the bears are no doubt looking a this bearish H&S pattern, but it's looking more like a bear trap this morning. 


So, it looks like short term, the market is going to continue to melt up, and the trend remains up, but this is going to take constant monitoring.

Have a great weekend! 

AA   








Thursday, September 8, 2022

Market Update - 9/8/22 - ECB Rate Decision

 I'm up early, fixing some of the typos in yesterday's blog, and doing some extra charting. 

To be honest I'm not sure what to expect out of this long awaited, and highly anticipated, ECB rate announcement, but the Fed is also scheduled to speak, so in theory this should bring a lot clarity, to what seems to be an otherwise confused market. If I'm right then we should see the $VIX continue to break below the 24.60 level. If I'm wrong, then we're going to see the $VIX break out above 25.75. 

Remember: 1. We're not officially back to normal trading until Monday, the 12th. 2. OPEX falls on the 16th. 3. Sept is a window dressing month. 

I'll be bet you didn't know that the DOW recently back-tested the 31k level, precisely? This is something I only discovered this morning.  


How about that $FAS trade up over 5% yesterday? 

I decided to quietly take profits in most of my positions yesterday, and it's nice to reduce my risk exposure, after being long Gold miners, and short #NatGas. These are super high risk trades, and it's good to reduce risk, at times like this.  

I had been expecting energy to collapse, but instead we've only seen some stops taken out: 

1. Tues. morning surprise (shakeout) in Natural Gas 

2. Wed. morning Surprise (shakeout) in Oil  

3. We also saw the $DBC commodities index taken down below the 200 day moving average, which was no coincidence. It's downright hilarious when Bloomberg reports that, "Oil slid", as if it was happenstance, when they know darn well whoever took it down, in pre-market, or are we to believe that their technical person, doesn't even follow moving averages? 

Anyhow, I'm happy to be out of these trades for the moment 

ECB - watch for the $DAX to lead global markets higher 

This is why I advised folks to chart the $DAX 

$DAX double bottom put in earlier in the year. Trend remains higher. Any bad news seems to have been priced in months ago.  



Take Care, AA 




Wednesday, September 7, 2022

Market Update 9/7/2022 - Monday Morning Surprise is Postponed Until Tuesday?

It kind of worked out well for me to get it wrong yesterday, but after seeing futures up for 2 days in a row, I expected the market to rally without me, on Tuesday. Instead we saw a retest of last weeks lows, and the little shakeout, I was hoping for.    

NASDAQ - retests a key Fibonacci level (a 61.8% retracement aka The Golden Mean) 


I don't know if we're going to be off to the races here, and I have my doubts, but I think we can't continue to retest my lower channel forever either. 

Lame Stream Media Reports 

  1. If I have to hear "7 day losing streak", reported - by the Lame Stream Media one more time, I think I'm going to go nuts. But this is what the idiots in the MSM are reporting, as if 7 red days in a row (for the NASDAQ) is some kind of record?! "...The longest losing streak 5 years"! Must be a slow news day, to be reporting such meaningless stats!   
  2. No more white men leading the British government - yes the idiots in the deep state must be very proud this overtly racist headline - U.K. Prime Minister Truss' cabinet is first without white men in top job - axios - after running Boris Johnson out of town 
  3. Bitcoin Crash - Considering that Bitcoin was recently trading at 20K again, this isn't a crash. It's just more fake news, and probably wishful thinking, since crypto is a threat to the petrodollar. 
  4. Short sellers return - this is some good intel, and helps me understand what's really going on in the market, and 1 out of 4 ain't bad!  

I usually like to watch with the sound off, but that's not always an option, and every once in a while you'll get some good intel, watching the fake news. 

The Technicals 

The $VIX - I was impressed that the short-sellers were able to drive the $VIX to a new recent high, on yesterday's little shakeout, but this retest of the $VIX high, doesn't look like a bearish move. Without getting too technical, it looks like a zig-zag pattern, which, if you know anything about EW chart patterns, is not an impulse wave.   

What does this mean? One thing it could mean is that we're going to continue to build some kind of base. Second thing it could mean, is that we already built a base, and yesterday's retest was simply an overshoot, or a head-fake. 

Update on Financials - continues to look like wave "A", in a little pullback. Did you buy the dips? 



Natural Gas - the short sellers return from vacation

If you missed yesterday's market update, it's a fascinating study in triangle patterns, and I may even include it in the book.... 

In Hindsight, looks like retail (investors) have been the only ones buying NatGas for the past Month, and possibly longer, when short sellers covered their positions all the way back in June - ahead of the 4th of July holiday. Now at least a few hedge funds have returned, and increased their short bets.  

Second option is that, "the powers that be", quickly figured out, over the weekend, that Russian traders were releasing fake news, in order to drive NatGas markets higher, and they nipped that in the bud. 

For whatever reason... Natural Gas broke key support, tumbling over 10%, and short sellers were seen taking profits at the 50 day moving average. 

From here we could see a gap fill, but once a commodities chart breaks, it usually continues to shake every weak hand, and if I'm proven correct that this is a powerful wave c, then that's exactly what I would expect to see. 

If I'm wrong, and this turns out just to be another pullback in a topping pattern, then we won't see NatGas continue to gap down.... slicing though all support, along the way, because this is how you can differentiate a powerful wave c, from something else. Instead. the selling will dry up, and it'll build a base. Time will tell... 





Good Luck, AA