Friday, May 13, 2022

Market Update 5/13/2022 5:55 AM - Now It's Time For the Annual "Dash for Trash"!

The Dash for Trash! 

Well, it's been over a week, since my last blog, and the bears has been unsuccessful in their attempts to cause much panic selling, except in a few already beaten up sectors like tech, and Crypto, which I feel we need to include as a sector, since it seems like when crypto sells off, so does tech. And let's not forget about China, which I predicted would take several weeks to pull back, after the run we saw earlier in the year. 

Here's that call:

Of course, the lame stream media tries to make this sell-off sound exciting, and confuse the masses, by using certain buzz words.... and even by having guests on to try to explain away the $VIX  - out #1 market indicator - but at the end of the day we've only seen a few 300 point moves on the DOW, and even though the Dow was down 500 points - at one point - during yesterday's trade, it managed to end the day down only 100 points. This is important, because this early spring shakeout was only intended to shake out the meme traders, and tech junkies

The DOW chart - for comparison purposes - Keep in mind a 3% move on the dow is about a 1000 points, and here we are still trading above the 30,000 level! 


We did see Energy pull back, which no doubt spooked some investors, but again, this is a small sector


Getting The Main Event The Dash for Trash! 

The dash for trash is an event which takes place on Wall Street every spring - for as long as I can remember. You wouldn't think the market could be so predictable, but you typically see retail investors shaken out of their favorite stocks, in the beginning of the year, before the sharks go on a bottom of the barrel feeding frenzy. Even the so called covid crash - which really had very little to do with covid - was sold in march, and bought in April (30 days later). Same thing in 2021. Why should this time be different? 

We've already seen massive gains in a few names, like $COOK, and Carvana, and $RIDE, to name a few! 

In short until the market can sell off in a bearish channel, and extend losses for more than a month, then I'm going to continue picking bottoms. 

It's not like they (the controllers) have a choice but to continue throwing endless amounts of cash at this (ponzi) market, as they did when the market crashed in 2020, because they know, they're only 1 negative feedback loop way from the next Great Depression. 

As long as investors believe the fed has "tools", which can prevent a financial dooms day, then free money is going to be put to work. Hyperventilating over Russia, Inflation, or even quantitative tightening isn't going to change that. 

Of course a financial day of reckoning is coming, and in our lifetimes. This bull market is nearly 100 years old, and it has already traded into a massive liquidity bubble, and even Warren Buffett calls the directives market a financial "time bomb". 

BUFFETT: This is the 'time bomb' in the markets businessinsider.com

 I can't say for certain that the global collapse in equities hasn't already begun, but since Wall Street is picking up the trash, as they do every spring, I think not.

If you'd like access to the best charts on the internet, and all of my $VIX charts, and sentiment indicators, then you should join us on our private twitter feed at @3XTradersLive

A $49 donation to this website gets you in the door. Price subject to change after 1st month. 

Simply make you paypal donation, using the link in the side menu, and I'll let you in! 

Join today and I'll even give you my favorite buy and hold stock for 2022. That alone is worth the price of admission! If you're not completely satisfied I'll even refund your money, so you have nothing to lose! Act now, on this limited time offer!  

I have a lot of charting to get caught up on, so I gotta run. 

Hope to see you there, AA 





Friday, May 6, 2022

Market Update 5/6/2022 Bearish Head & Shoulders Patterns, and The True H&S Pattern

 Bearish Head & Shoulders Patterns, and The True H&S Pattern 

Yesterday we saw stocks give back all the gains from the fed relief rally, and more, but we're only retesting the recent lows, and short squeeze season is upon us. 

But today I want to talk about H&S patterns, and if you follow the FinTwit community I'm sure you've seen this one. 




This twitter user has over 400k followers, and can't even identify a pattern, or draw one correctly. This is great news, for those of us who know what we're doing, because we can use the general public as a contrarian indicator!   

Even though I pointed out this pattern on Tuesday, I can tell you, it's not a reliable pattern. It's also drawn incorrectly, as the neckline should be right sloping.

Of course now you see this pattern being tweeted ad nauseam.... 

What's wrong with this pattern? If you have to ask, then you haven't done your home work on Head and Shoulders patterns.  Chart School Head and Shoulders stockcharts.com 

1. For one, the duration (timeline) is too long. Should be more like 5 months   

2. This is only 1 pattern, on one index. Again you haven't done your home work!  

3. It's actually a contrarian indicator, because the lowest intelligence traders are pointing to it.

 This tweet also got 2 likes, and that's a bullish contrarian indicator. 

I showed you the correct EW pattern; the same one I've been pointing to for over a year now? 

I even pointed it out again, in last weeks contest - to win free entry into our private twitter feed -  but nobody who follows this blog could even tell me what pattern is called! lol 

I shouldn't laugh, because this experiences just proves that I'm not getting through to 99% of my audience, and wasting my time here.   

Market Update 4/26/22 - A Chance To Win FREE Entry INTO 3XTraders Private Twitter Feed! 


That contest has since ended, as it has become clear to me that traders would rather be bearish than learn about charting, and trading, or even win on a consistent basis. Traders would rather rely on their gut instinct, and hope they win, even though that is a losing strategy! 


The true H&S pattern


The true H&S pattern can be found on a couple charts - and the duration is correct 

1. On the $VIX - this a super-bullish indicator for the broader market 





2. The Dow - I've blogged quite a bit on the Dow this year, and for good reason. It's not a leading indicator, so it still needs to outperform. After all, we're not in a bear market, as I would define it - lower lows, followed by lower highs. I mean, you could point to China, or Tech, or some other obscure sector, and conclude that they are trending bearish, but not the broader market. Remember the fake bull market is a balancing act. Remember back when Obama took office, it was healthcare, that lead, and if Romney had won, he was going to sell the same idea....   

3. What about the Airlines? I've pointed to that bullish inverse H&S many times!  





4. The $SPLV - this is the low volatility $SPX. While it's not technically a true (inverse) H&S pattern, it has some very similar characteristics.... 


There is a bearish H&S pattern on the shorter term $SPX, but again, the duration is wrong (too short). 


As you can see there's more that goes into technical analysis, then just cherry picking patterns you like, while ignoring the rules that govern certain patterns. 

2. It takes quite a bit of experience to differentiate when you're faced with conflicting patterns, as well as to have the discipline to not trade, when you're not sure. That takes discipline!   

Good Luck, AA 


A $49 donation still gets you 50% off (discounted) access for an entire month @3Xtraderslive. 

Thursday, May 5, 2022

Market Update 5/5/2022 - Here We Go Again

The FOMC 

 After yesterday's FOMC announcement, we got another nice relief rally. 

This is typical, that the $VIX comes down; whenever the Fed announces their intentions. This offers some "clarity", and clarity is the opposite of uncertainty. Some times the rally is delayed until the next day, but this is the case, 90% of the time.   

The lame stream media will tell you that the market rallied, because a 75 basis point rate hike was apparently taken off the table, after they had reported - earlier in the week - that the market had somehow priced in a 50% chance of a 75% hike? I saw that as more like a million to 1 chance, not 50%! Perhaps the market makers lowered expectations in order to beat expectations?  

Judging by Chairman Powell lackadaisical attitude, over the past several months, how could anyone expect anything different than what the market was expecting?   

Investor sentiment: Of course the bulls are trying to make yesterday's rally into something more than that, but investor intelligence is not looking too bright, according to the comments I'm seeing in my public twitter feed. I even got trolled by a follower, ahead of yesterday's close! 

  If you recall this is the same round number target the bulls set their goal at last time... 

I even blogged on the subject on April 29th - Re: the $SPX 4300 level 

The DOW was also sold at the 50 day moving average. 

Until a real direction can be established then I'm going to use relief rallies like the one we saw yesterday, as selling opportunities. 

I thought we might see a short squeeze on the heals of the fed announcement, and that's good enough for me! I told my people to sell it, and I took profits as well, and you see where futures are trading this morning... we're not exactly off to the races, as I though we might be, and with May OPEX only a couple weeks away! The window for a tradable rally has come and gone, unless we're looking at a low volume summer rally.  

Until the $VIX returns to normal, I would remain cautious. Of course you're going to miss a tremendous short squeeze, once a bottom is confirmed, and that's where my expertise comes in, and all the charts you need to trade this market have already been tweeted to our private twitter feed. 

A $49 donation gets you 50% off (discounted) access for an entire month @3Xtraderslive. 

Good Luck, AA 


    




Wednesday, May 4, 2022

Market Update 5/4/2022 - There's Always A (rigged) Bull Market Somewhere

 After last weeks little shakeout in Energy, we're seeing Oil and Energy, and even Natural Gas bounce back. 

As you probably know by now, Canada is the canary in the coal mine, no pun intended. I used to be able to chart coal... until stock charts did away with the index. 

Canada: Continues to trend up even after last weeks bear raid. 

1. First chart shows where energy was taken down, with Canada, and even Bloomberg finally reported that Canada has been holding up, thanks to the commodities bubble. 


2. The updated chart shows Canada is still trading in an ascending, contracting, triangle pattern. Only short term traders were shaken out.... 

This morning: Oil is leading the energy sector, as I predicted it would, yesterday afternoon.
At this rate it could be July. or even August, before the market corrects, and this is just another good example of why you need to go with the flow, rather that try to predict timelines. 

One thing I have learned covering this energy rally, is that money is methodically being put to work in Oil, and then Natural Gas, regardless of demand or weather, or Russia.... and this is helping to drive the entire energy sector.    
 

Oil vs Natural Gas




Another thing I've learned is that one sector is pumped and dumped, and then another sector. 

Energy vs Tech 




This is why Jim Cramer always says, "there's always a bull market somewhere".  

Pump n' dump tech stocks, and then do the same in the energy sector. 

I'm not sure how long they can continue to keep the shell game alive, but I suspect this has already been going on for a very long time, and it will continue a very long time! 

They only waited to sell Tech in 2022, in order to defer capital gains tax... so they may not sell Energy until 2023?  

One last thing: Did you see my target on Amazon taken out last week?! Monster call! 


Take Care, AA 



Monday, May 2, 2022

Market Update - Weekly/ Monthly Wrap-up - Now does this look like a bear market?

 It's very unusual for the market to sell-off on the last day of the month, but that's what we saw on Friday. 


Now, if futures were down another 3% this  (Monday) morning, and we were seeing some follow-through (to the downside), maybe I could start looking for a bear market, but instead we're seeing futures up. 

Friday's sell-off wasn't even that bad, with the Dow ending 230 points lower than the low we saw on Wed.

$INDU - retest Wednesday's low. "This is nothing", as I keep tweeting.   

 


$NYSE -  you can see for yourself last months pullback is not even compatible to March 2020.  



 

The fake news can call last months action "the worst sell-off since March 2020", but that's not saying much. Even Fox News - over the weekend - was reporting on Friday's sell-off, as if it was historic, and taking a page from CNBC, they showed the 1 day ticker/ chart for maximum fear. 

The lame stream media also continues to report that there is some kind of, "Covid crisis in China", but then they fail to mention that Chinese internet stocks were up some 8% last week, with the Hang Seng up 3 day's in a row. 

$BABA was up another 6.8% on Friday!

3. Bloomberg finally report that Canada was down - last week - so they obviously know commodities, and especially Canadian energy stocks are only thing holding the $TSX up. Funny they didn't report that Canada was making new all time highs, the week before! 


I'll update again, when I can add some charts, but this obviously isn't a bear market.  

There's always the possibility that the recent weakness we've seen turns into something more, but it looks oversold to me, and the fed reports this week, and I would expect plenty of short covering ahead of the announcement.... 

Take Care, AA 



 




ssss  

Friday, April 29, 2022

Market Update - weekly OPEX Friday - 4/29/22 - Taking a look at the 3X leveraged +FANG ETFs $FNGU & $FNGD

 Reminder: There's still a contest going on and all you have to do is identify the Elliott Wave pattern, in order to win 1 month free entry into our new private twitter timeline. All the charts you need to trade like a rock star, are already there waiting for you! 

Market Update

We're closing in on the end of the month.... but because today is weekly Options Expiration, and the controllers are hell bent on collecting on the Calls they sold, months ago; stocks will likely remain pinned in the low end of the range. 

Deutsche Bank is one of the crooked banks who is desperately trying to take the market lower, using bearish press releases. Many source like this one: Deutsche Bank just predicted ‘a major recession’ weeks after forecasting a ‘mild’ one - many sources April 27th  

Funny today Deutche Banks faces another investigation into their corrupt practices: 


Prosecutors search Deutsche Bank HQ in money laundering investigation April 29th, 2022 reuters.com  


Market Update 

Just before yesterday's close: I announced that the market had stalled out, and it promptly reversed, but this is all you get for free. 

Now, here's an example of what you get for a 1st month subscription to our private twitter feed, for a $49 donation to the website. 


@3XTradersLive
Looking at a 15 minute chart. We just came up against resistance. I'm already starting to question whether or not this rally can continue.


I subsequently tweeted several more charts, as well as a $VIX update, and as it turns out, I've nailed it again - looking at futures deep in the red. 

On to the main point.... 

What is going on with the 3X Leveraged +FANG (FAANG) ETFs - $FNGD & $FNGU? 

Last night I saw $FNGU down 10%, after Amazon's terrible earnings miss, yet this morning it's back in the green. That's a huge overnight reversal, and an nasty surprise for inexperience traders who no doubt pilled into $FNGD last night! 

Here's the answer: 

You need to know what you're trading! +FANG - as they call it - only has 2 FAANG holdings, along with several Chinese stocks, and even Tesla, of all things! 

That's right $FNGD & $FNGU don't trade in relation to FAANG stocks! 

Before you trade any of the 3X funds, you really need to do your homework!  

And that's my trading tip for today. 

Have a great weekend, AA 



Thursday, April 28, 2022

Market Update 4/28/22 - Looks Like We're Off To The Races - META Facebook - up 16% in pre-market

Seems like the market has had to retest the lows several times this week, without any help from me. See, I decided not to provide updates this week, and as a result, the market is having a difficult time finding a bottom, but as I've explained before, "Bottoming is a process", and unless, or until, they're finished taking - for example - biotech stocks down to a certain level, the rest of the market isn't going to rally. I mean, it is possible to have an isolated bear market (in biotech), but we've seen several sectors - including tech - sell off for some 5 months, and other sectors such a biotech, for more than a year! 

Speaking of tech stocks; after calling the bottom on Facebook (META), yesterday, in real time; this morning I'm seeing it up over 16% in pre-market. All you had to do, was pull the trigger! 

Scroll down to the second chart... 


Funny, not even 1 like on that tweet! lol Makes me think my twitter account is still being shadow banned. I should no doubt have well over 10k followers, after tweeting 140k times in 10 years, but my political views aren't the most popular, among the so called, "woke", left. A topic for another day. 

Sometimes it seems like I'm tweeting, and blogging in a vacuum, and when I do an internet search for "3xtraders.com", this website doesn't even make the top search results? I know some folks are having some difficulty viewing this site, and was reminded of this after running yesterday's contest... and someone mentioned they couldn't access this site. I'm also got getting zero 0 responses on that free contest. It's inexplicable!    

I'm going to have to do some more investigation into what exactly the problem is. 

I want to keep this update short, and to the point. 

Another point to make about yesterday's reversal in Facebook shares. Bloomberg helped shake the weak hands by reporting an erroneous (false) rumor. 

Facebook briefly drops 6% after Bloomberg "incorrectly" publishes disappointing forward guidance for revenue marketsinsider.com

I pointed out, in a recent blog update, April 8th - how the crooks in the financial fake news do this all the time, but white collar crime is no longer prosecuted, and Wall Street knows it. 

Free charts continue to be tweeted   

Yes, I'm still tweeting charts from @3XTraders. but if you want the best charts, and consistent reliable charts, and updates, you're going to have to join us at @3Xtraderslive. 

You can find details on how to join our private twitter feed, in yesterday's blog, or simply donate $49 for the first month, and then request entry....  

I know I said I was no longer going to tweet free charts from my public twitter account, but I may still throw some trades, targets, and charts out there, as I did yesterday.

I did reveal that my $SOX target had come in, and that tweet got 1 like. 

The China/Yen trade I called out a week ago. Crashing! 

If you are a serious trader, then you know where the best charts on the internet can be found. 

I'll continue to use the public twitter as a place to teach, and to warn anyone who will listen.., to the total collapse that is coming, in the not so distant future! 

  

To be honest, nobody knows exactly how long the fed can keep the game alive, but non military, government agencies, continue to amass a small arsenal, while trying to take your guns away! 



Take care, AA 


Tuesday, April 26, 2022

Market Update 4/26/22 - + A Chance To Win FREE Entry INTO 3XTraders Private Twitter Feed!

 As I explained in Saturday's weekly wrap-up:  I set up a private twitter feed @3xtraderslive, so we can have some privacy, and to make it more difficult for the crooked hedge funds to target us. You can win free entry in today's Elliott Wave Pattern Identification Contest, located further down the page.

3XTraders private twitter @3xtraderslive, fist day was a complete success! 

It took several hours to set up, but once that was done, and all the charts were uploaded, and everything you needed to catch yesterday's - perfectly timed - 1000 point (DOW) rally - off the lows - was prepared ahead of yesterday's opening bell.  

Those of you who were following the charts I posted - to my regular twitter feed - last week, may have anticipated yesterday's rally, but what about the next big move? I told you on Sat., I don't want you to miss out on some of the best trading of the year! Don't waste another minute!    

Here I was on Twitter last week, pointing out the obvious to someone, who goes by the name @CyclesFan, but only has a limited understanding of market cycles, and apparently even less knowledge when it comes to finding technical support on a chart.   

 The only market "cycle" you needed to know yesterday, was that bullish traders, who are sitting on a pile of cash were going to return from vacation, and put money to work. 

The fact that futures were red Sunday night is meaningless.   

This is one of the things I hate about Twitter, many times the folks with the least amount of knowledge, get the largest following. I guess that explains why most traders are consistently wrong....  

I also believe in the adage that, "you get what you pay for", and this is what you should expect for free, lot's of inaccurate, or even downright deceptive information.  

What Happened to the Free Chart and Tweets?   

I used to think free was the way to go, because the most important thing is to get your name out there, and there may be some truth in that, but once you've honed a skill, that's in high demand, and people take notice, then it's time to get paid for all your hard work.   

My introductory offer to join 3XTraders private twitter is only $50... but today one lucky person is going to get in for FREE! 

Here's Your Chance To Win FREE Entry Into Our Private Twitter Feed! 

Elliott Wave Pattern Identification Contest   

Correctly Identify The Elliott Wave Pattern On The Chart Below. The Broader Market Has Been Trading In this For The Past Year! 

$NYSE - Be the fist person to identify this basic Elliott Wave pattern, and gain 1 month free entry into our private twitter feed valued at $99. 



 Elliott Wave Contest Rules: 

1. First person to respond with the correct answer wins 

2. Only one person can win

3. Response, must be given on this website, in the response section (below)  

4. Identify the chart Pattern in Elliott Wave Terminology 

5. Since Elliott Wave Pattern Identification is up to interpretation, there may be more than 1 correct answer, and I'll take that into consideration. 

6. Winner receives 1 month free entry into @3xtraderslive    

Pattern Identification is often up to interpretation, so I may accept an answer, other than the one I have in mind, but it must be identified as an Elliott Wave Pattern. If you know the basics of Elliott Wave Theory, then you should know the terminology.     

If you don't win free entry; It's only 50 bucks, for the 1st Month! Take advantage of this offer while it  lasts. You have nothing to lose; I'll even return your money, if you're not 100% satisfied 

I set the introductory rate for basic service, at 50 bucks - paypal donation - for the first month. This get's you all the charts I used to tweet free, plus many charts, I used to keep close to my chest.

Good Luck, AA 




Saturday, April 23, 2022

Market Update 4/23/22 - Weekly Wrap-up - Plan B


We obviously saw a big move to the downside on Friday, in a bear raid, which started in Germany, with the German $DAX being taken down (precisely) below the 50 day moving average. They always start manipulating US futures overseas, and this time was no exception. 

We saw the same thing on the $NYSE, as the 50 day ma was taken out at the open - causing program selling to kick in. This was obviously coordinated, and this comes 1 day before Money managers return to put money to work, after the long Passover holiday.    

$SPX - Same thing - the 50 day ma taken out 

The $BKX broke below the 2008 high, and energy finally pulled back, as predicted... 

 Oh, and Canada even sold off, something I've been alerting to for several weeks now. 

Oh yeah, some markets are breaking down, and other look like they're poised to break


So, is this the end of the great (rigged) bull market? Hardly!  

At this point market sentiment is overwhelmingly bearish, which is actually a bullish indicator, and most the charts agree, and I have some exciting news for you! Plan B

Anyone who's been following me for any length of time, knows that I routinely refuse to reveal certain charts, because the hedge funds continue to target me, just as they target Jim Cramer, and his fans. Look at what they did to legendary short seller - turned bull - Bill Akman, by talking down NetFlix another 30%, and I could give countless other examples.... 

Why should I give the hedge funds free ammunition?  

Plan B 

I've created a private twitter account, @3xtraderslive, so we no longer have to worry about who's targeting us, as I eluded to in the regular 3XTraders twitter account on Saturday. 

Now I'm going to be able to reveal all the charts! Of course the hedge funds could pay to see these charts, but there are easier fish to fry, and these scum bags like to work in anonymity. Adding a single layer of protection, is usually all it takes, for the thieves to move on to an easier target. 

Getting back to the charts  

As I tweeted on Friday: 

 You'll not only get all the charts I normally tweet all day long, but you'll get what I often refer to as my "proprietary indicators", and $VIX charts you've never seen before. 

Eventually I plan to set up a website to to do automatic billing, but that's going to require a lot of paperwork. In the meantime you can use the paypal link in the side menu to sign up, and gain access to our private twitter feed.  

The limited time introductory offer is $50 per month, which will probably rise to $99. That comes to less than $5 per trading day, for daily market updates, and even some live charting. 

I'll also probably also add a gold member package for folks who require private messages, and sector specific charts for, commodities, currency trades, and foreign markets.  

Of course certain sector charts, may be included in the baseline membership, but generally I intend to give the broader markets forecast, and it will be up to you to find whatever sector, or sectors are leading. It's just impossible to be all things to all people, when one trader is determined to trade Oil, and another US Treasuries. I can only cover so many sectors at one time, and the higher - gold member - price will weed out those who are serious, and who aren't.... 

I'm seeing some golden opportunities coming, and some of the best trading we've seen in months, and the time to sign up it today, not when the summer doldrums roll around, and the $VIX is trading back in the teens. Get on board now, I don't want to you miss this opportunity! 

@3xtraderslive is all ready set up. Make a $50 donation to the paypal link located in the side menu, and then request entry into the new twitter account. Once your payment is confirmed, you'll be granted access to the best charts on the internet, and you decide you're not happy, I'll refund your money! This is not one of those scams you see on twitter, using the discord chat app. Stay away from those. 

Take Care, AA     


Friday, April 15, 2022

Weekly Wrap-up - 4/15/22 - Good Friday, after another manipulated Option Expiration

 Yesterday was a Thursday Options Expiration, leading into a holiday, so it was a pretty sure thing that Energy would continue to hold up, and that included Oil. I caught a nice 16% rally in the $UCO ProShares Ultra Bloomberg Leveraged Crude Oil Bull, and alerted to that trade just before Thursday's close. 



Again it was an easy prediction to make, considering that Every Options Expiration date is rigged, and especially when you're trading into a holiday. 

So, the trend continued into the end of the week, as expected: 

Stocks remained pinned in a range, and Energy remains pinned at recent highs. 

$USD ended the session slightly higher 


NatGas continues to hold up, and could even go higher, considering most traders are on vacation, but that also means that if Natural Gas crashes, there is going to be the lack of an underlying bid, meaning if you place a market order, rather than a limit order, you could end up selling at a huge discount to the asking price. Even Thurdsay, I found the bid ask on the $UCO, like 50 cents apart, and took 10 minutes or so to get my asking price. In a market crash, you don't have the same luxury....   

$NatGas - keeping close eye on this over the next few weeks. Looks like an emotional wave E throw-over. E of primary wave (B).   


A Wave B triangle is a counter-trend rally, and a wave E usually ends in a violent reversal, so that should be easy to confirm. 

NatGas: I have several alternate wave counts including a powerful wave C, which probably makes even more sense than wave E, because the count is easily divided into 5 waves

 


$NATGAS - I have over 20 NatGas charts working, so I have 100% confidence I will find the reversal, just as I did in BRENT crude.  

BRENT Crude Oil - now trading in a predictable suckers rally. It can go hire, but hit resistance on some short term charts, on Friday. It needs to consolidate...    



NatGas - Looking at the short term trend, it's obviously already overshot the top of the channel, just as Oil recently did, and we all know how that ended. 


So Energy continues to hold up, but if equities are going to rally into the summer, then I believe the smart money will be taking profits in commodities, very shortly. 

Another thing that continues to hold up is Canada, which despite the recent interest rate hike - something that was totally ignored by the lame stream media - Canadian Stocks continue to trade at all time highs. 

Reminder: If you're trading materials or commodities, or anything in that realm, you should also be watching the $TSX  

$TSX Canada 10 min. view 


Canada is doomed - The fed has already given the crooked banks plenty of advanced warning, so that they can plan the take-down of global markets, just as they did the covid crash - weeks/months in advance. They knew markets were going to correct regardless... as well as I did.   





The commodities based materials sector

In case you missed this suggestion in my Twitter feed last week  

Another economy that's closely tied to commodities and specifically mining 

Australia! Massive broadening top, as the power structure, with the help of the fed, has in desperation, has managed to keep the bubble inflated a little longer. 14 years later markets are in far worse shape... but no doubt they have stalled long enough to help them prepare for a collapse, and an authoritarian state. We saw some of those drills run during the covid lock downs.    


The Catalyst 

I'm mentioned climate collapse as a likely catalyst for what happens next, and Australia's climate is already at the tipping point.   

Now imagine a scenario where mining continues at full speed, while the rest of the economy grinds to a halt. That's entirely possible with the imminent collapse of the Ozone layer. 

Imminent Ozone Layer Collapse, A Dire Warning From A Former NASA Contract Engineer geoengineeringwatch.org 






Why You Don’t Hear About the Hole in the Ozone Layer Anymore




wish I had better news on this good Friday, but it looks like the covid lock-downs were just a dress rehearsal for the coming climate disaster, and I'm anticipating deflation, not inflation.  

I would still expect one last hurrah from US markets. Once tech finds a bottom, and traders return from vacation, money must be put to work.    

Have a great weekend, AA 


Thursday, April 14, 2022

Market Update 4/14/22 - I see a sector rotation coming

I've remained pretty bullish into the April pullback, and I'll continue to make the case for a continuing rally 

Most investors say they are expecting a recession, but that kind of bearish sentiment is actually extremely bullish contrarian indicator. I saw the story reported on CNBC, and Steve Lies man (Liesman) must know this - week old - survey is a bullish, indicator, but they must be intent on keeping their viewers in the dark.  

Over 1,000 major investors believe a worldwide recession is just around the corner, definitive survey says fortune.com 


I linked to the fortune story, but all the fake financial news outlets are reading from the same script. 

As you get close to the end of the story, they conclude with: "But then it gets to the truly scary part. The survey says that uncertainty as a result of the war will combine with global inflation to create a new type of economic crisis". 

Now, I want you to think back to the financial crisis of '08, when Jim Cramer was going on the latenight shows, to drum up fear. "If you're going to need the money in the next 5 years, then you should sell" (at what turned out to be at or very close to the bottom).

And remember CNBC was talking about the financial system failing, when all the feds needed to do, to stop the selling, was to end market to market accounting, and hand the crooked banks, trillions of dollars in tax payer money.    


Here's a story you won't hear repeated by the lame stream media: 

 

Steve Bannon attributes his worldview to a simple stock-investing mistake his dad made after listening to Jim Cramer businessinsider.com 


Believe me, there's nothing, "scary" about investors believing every negative story they're spoon-fed, by the lying lame stream media. It's when investors are bullish, and everything looks rosy, and the market is making new highs, that you should start taking some profits, as the smart money did, at the beginning of the year.  

One thing Jim Cramer is right about, is the fact that the real inflation numbers are coming from the used car sector, not Russia. That's in part due to the chip shortage, and the inability to produce enough new cars, BUT it's also due to the fact that the entire used car market has been hijacked by corporations like Carvana, and Carmax, because consumers no longer have the skills required to buy from a private sellers. As Cirvana puts it: You can binge-watch your favorite show, and have your car delivered to you. What they don't tell you is what that kind of white clove service is going to cost you. Probably $1000's of dollars more than you would normally pay.  

Related story: 

Carvana, Wells Fargo among car loan share gainers autonews.com 

I'm not saying we aren't seeing real inflation, but we're also seeing a very strong dollar. It's when you see Treasury markets sell off, with the US dollar, that you should start worrying....  

Speaking of the US dollar: 

A short term top should be good for stocks. and the $EURO, and that is going to be bad news for Gold priced in $EUROs.   

To add even more weight to this theory: If you pull up the $EURO chart, you'll find that the most recent bottom in the EURO coincided with the top in commodities. That was well before the media saturation. 

This is especially relevant - even more so than metals - to the Energy bubble 

And as I pointed out to my LinkedIn following yesterday: 


 Believe what you're seeing on the chart, or believe what they report on CNBC; Commodities have already bounced back to a lower high. 



As far as equities go, like I said, I'm more bullish. 

$INDU - I prefer the DOW over tech stocks, or anything else that remains overbought  

1. The bearish view - the trend remains down, and resistance seen at the old 35.1 level. 


2. The bullish view - stocks continue to consolidate in a tight range, and the bullish channel is pointing at the next round number target 38k. 


If the current trend breaks then go with the flow, but suggest you don't fight the trend, and especially when media saturation on the "inflation" has reached record highs.   

Take Care, next week. Volume and volatility are going to drop off a cliff, and so you don't want too much exposure - especially on the short end.  Selling season isn't until May. 

AA 


Wednesday, April 13, 2022

Market Update 4/13/2022 - Oil, Currency Trades, and a Penny Stock

 Seems like I keep harping on the same subject every day, but I think it's important to point out every time the (financial) fake news lies, and they're giving me a lot of material to work with! 

Seems like nearly everything I hear reported is a bold faced lie, so after yesterday's Subway attack in Brooklyn, I was left questioning, "is another false flag event, or just another wag the dog moment"? One thing is for sure, the media is more concerned with covering that subway shooting, than yesterday's lousy inflation numbers. This is to help the Fed, Joe Biden, and the anti-second amendment crowd, and the truth be damned. Oh, and by the way, the cameras just happened to be out of service that day.  Brooklyn subway station camera system had a 'malfunction' during the mass shooting that left over a dozen hurt, NYC mayor says insider.com

Have we ever seen an event like this called a, "mass shooting", without even 1 fatality..? 

2. They also continue to push the idea that Putin is somehow responsible for the recent spike in inflation, even though 90% of the population knows that's absolute hog wash! 

 "Biden (casually) accuses Putin of "Genocide", while casting blame for inflation". You can't make this stuff up, but here's a link to the story at the nypost.com     

a. It wasn't Vladimir Putin who printed all this money, and started sending it out to people to spend on reckless abandon.  It was our politicians, who encouraged the fed to"save the economy", knowing that Trump was about to be run out of the white house, on a rail. Breaking news: The election was rigged. Shocking, I know!   

b. As I recall it wasn't Putin calling the inflation numbers "transitory", and still the fed drags it's feet, doing a .25% hike, and then talking about how they're going to do more. They are full of talk! In fact the more they talk, the more I realize they are only trying to talk bond prices down, without actually doing anything, and it's worked marvelously!     

3. Just last week Abigail Doolittle - at Bloomberg - was seen talking down financials, calling the declines of the previous past 5 day's, the worst in history? 

Financials - Worst 5 day decline ever? Obviously NOT! 

4. Tom Keene - at Bloomberg - was recently seen talking up corn prices. Why? Because it directs attention away from the fed, and Joe Biden, and points the finger at Russian Grain (crops), as the cause of inflation. See the pattern here?  

Corn is not even trading at new all time highs, so why else would he be talk it up... rhetorical. 

As far as the rest of the rigged market (s) go:

We're seeing a little breakout on Oil this morning, after yesterday's bounce out off the 50 day moving average. 

Not 1 like, tells me that nobody caught yesterday's 5% move, and I don't blame you for not wanting to trade oil. It's far too dangerous for most traders to be chasing what looks like, "a suckers rally", in oil. 

Seeing a continuing breakout in Oil this morning  - looking at a 60 min. view of the $USO


Those who chose to trade the broader market yesterday, weren't so lucky, as the market gave back all of yesterday's gains. 

I see a bunch of currency trades coming, and Treasuries seem to be trying to form a base, but most people don't trade this stuff. 

$GBP - 

Also looks like China is about to manipulate it's currency, and can you blame them..? 


I caught a massive short squeeze in a pennystock, I mentioned a couple months ago, and the only reason I'm up in that is because I recently doubled down on it. Call it "luck", or intuition, combined with a bit of proper money management; I call it "winning". 

Take Care, AA