Market Update 10/4/22 - My Top 5 Tricks To Timing Markets

The Trick To Timing Markets  

To update you on the current market action: 

We saw money put to work on the first trading day, of the month, as I predicted, over the weekend.

10/1/22 Weekly/ Monthly/ Quarterly - Market Wrap-up - and a Look Ahead 

You can try to make any bullish case you want for this rally, and the lame stream media wasted no time pivoting from bearish to bullish - practically overnight - but much of this is being driven by short covering, as a hidden calendar issue unfolds. If you've been following me for any length of time, then you understand what that means, or know where to look.... 

To recap: Futures were up Sunday night, and that propelled a big 2.25% rally in US equities, on Monday, and this morning we see futures up again, on the back of an RBA pivot. 

#RBA tapers the taper. That's enough to lift futures markets

— Veteran Market Timer (@3Xtraders) October 4, 2022

 As you probably already know, I'm extremely bearish Australia, and that doesn't change, after today's pivot.

This pivot helps explain why we saw commodities explode higher, in yesterday's session, but there is also rumors that OPEC is going to cut production.  Even the lying main stream media was having a hard time explaining why the Saudi's would be, "cutting oil production", as Joe Biden continues to drain the Strategic Oil Reserve (SPR)!  

The fast money crew on CNBC, certainly recognizes this rally in energy for what it is (a Short Squeeze), because they are - once again - behind it!       

CNBC's Fast Money Stocks Rally to Start Q4 and Oil Prices & OPEC+ in Focus 10/3/22 Podcast.google.com

My Outlook

I remain bullish, but I was secretly hoping for a final washout in equities, so I could put a little extra cash to work. Not sure I'm going to get the opportunity now, with only 30 days to the rigged midterm election.    

Speaking of Political Pressure 

U.N. Calls On Fed, Other Central Banks to Halt Interest-Rate Increases wsj

The Trick To Timing Markets 

 1.  There are actually several tricks, that come to mind, but knowing what the most likely outcome is going to be, regardless of what everybody else thinks... is one of them! Don't be afraid to be the contrarian. Sure, it doesn't make me popular, but it helps we win, while everyone else is losing. 

2. Another trick is knowing how to anticipate short squeezes, and recognizing them for what they are. 

3. Recognizing that markets are cyclical. What usually happens at the beginning of the year, or during the summer. When is gold buying season?   

4. Accurate charting technique, as well as recognizing deceptive charting practices, and I plan to delve into this in the next several updates, if time permits. 

5. Cutting through the BS: We are truly living in the age of deception, and it's not easy to remove yourself from that, when you're constantly being bombarded by the fake news, and social media.   

If it were only as easy as knowing these 5 things, that would be great, but I could easily come up with another 5 tricks that I use to keep myself on the right side of the trade! I'm out of time.  

Take care, 

AA 

 

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