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Wednesday, October 12, 2022

Market Update 10/12 Let's take a look at what's really going on with this market

 Let's take a look at what's really going on with this market 

In the past couple blogs, I touched on the sell-off in tech, and $SOX and the rest, and how the recent sell-off has been pretty much isolated to a few sectors, and this is typical of a market that's trying to build a base. 

1. "Bottoming is a process", which can't be rushed.     

2. "Targets overshoot", and shakeouts are performed in order to shake you out - duh! 

But what's The Real Catalyst For This Sell-off? 

I trust the charts, but that doesn't mean I ignore catalysts, because news -fake or not - moves markets. 

After all could the market sell-off on profit taking alone, or is a story needed in order to panic investors into selling their precious shares?   

Looking Back At the Catalyst for the crash of 2020

Most investors would say the Covid pandemic was the catalyst for the crash of 2020, and that story was used to panic investors, as a specific time (day after OPEX), and also used as an excuse to continue, "bailout world", policy, and I said so, at the time. 

Of course I knew the story was a hoax, and being used to juice global markets, and for the Pharmaceutical Industrial Complex to push untested vaccines, on an unsuspecting public.  I was kicked off twitter, more than once, trying to warn people, about the dangers of taking an untested vaccine, and the internet continues to be scrubbed of most every article that questions the safety, or effectiveness....  

This from the British Medical Journal - published Dec. 2021 

As far as the safety of the vaccines is concerned, it is clear that rare but serious, and potentially fatal adverse effects occur, such as thrombosis and myocarditis, [8] and that these took months to identify. Long-term harms will be difficult to detect due to the short duration of the randomized trials, and will only become apparent in coming years.

Most recently: 

From The Washington Times - Vaccine warning from Florida’s surgeon general... 

The self-controlled case series analysis found that men ages 18-39 experienced an 84% increase in the relative incidence of cardiac-related death within 28 days of vaccination. “With a high level of global immunity to COVID-19, the benefit of vaccination is likely outweighed by this abnormally high risk of cardiac-related death among men in this age group,” the guidance says. “Non-mRNA vaccines were not found to have these increased risks.”
I'll bet you didn't hear any main stream news organization lead with that story this morning, but folks in academia are afraid to speak out at the risk of being cancelled, de-funded, or worse. 

Today's Catalyst as being reported by the lame stream media 

 1. Russia

Today we see Ukraine being used as an excuse for more reckless spending, and turning the US into a puppet empire, for the expansion of NATO. Is this spending even accounted for, and what about the risk of a Nuclear apocalypse, is this acceptable with our so called, "representatives" in Washington?

2. The Fed

Most investors think the real catalyst for the recent selling is the federal reserve, because this is what they hear on the TV all day, but as I tweeted out yesterday 

3. Lately they've turned to blaming the Bank of England, and a few distressed pension funds....

 I recognized the selling (fear) was coming out of the UK, months ago, but I still couldn't understand why... until I did some due diligence, after piecing together, a few snippets of thing I've heard, and doing an exhaustive internet search. Went down one rabbit hole, and came out the other side.    

The Ongoing China Trade War!  

There's a term you don't hear reported anymore! Did the US China Trade War story die, when China Joe was elected? No, not really... 

The Trade War with China, didn't start with Trump, and certainly didn't end with Trump, as much as that proverbial horse was beaten like a drum, while Trump was still in office. 

The Internet is still littered with fake news stories, which go into great detail, about how Trump got us into a "trade war with China", yet the trade war continues, and now expands to the chip sector, and technology. 

Of course as hard as the lame stream media tried to blame Trump for a trade war with China, they have to try equally as hard NOT to report that President Biden is  taking his orders from the deep state globalists, overseas.   

The Asian Pivot - as it's been called - has been going on since the Obama administration, and this explains why Biden was "selected", and put in charge of it today.    


America Still Needs to Rebalance to Asia 

Going back to the market action 

Looking back at the Spring rally:  If you recall, back in the early spring, I called the bottom in US equities - by spotting the washout in Chinese equities. 

Alibaba is a good example of where we're seeing the most selling.... 

$BABA - I've purposely not updated this chart. This is just an example of what's really going on in US traded, Chinese, names, as well as the tech sector, and of course the chip sector.     

What does the trading community have to say about this? Not much 

I caught a little bit of CNBC Fast Money last night - while I was cooking dinner - and they touched on the chip sector, and that the "sanctions" (against China), haven't even been factored in...", which is one of the stupidest things I've heard in a very long time. 

Look, this China chip sector war, has been creating uncertainty for months, as the UK continues to fan the flames, and who knows what Joe Biden is capable of.... 

But by the time you see it (breaking news) being reported to Joe Public, by the New York Times, the market has already priced in the risk, several times over. This is why we typically buy the news, and this time is no different.  

Perhaps the answer to so much disinformation, and Wall Street fuckery, is to subscribe to a decent news service, whether it's Wall Street insiders, like TheStreet, or the good ol' Wall Street Journal, otherwise you're left sifting through a lot of bull shit, looking for the real catalyst, as well as how to trade it. 

Mike drop, 


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