Page menu

Thursday, September 28, 2017

Market Update 9/28/17

This morning I was going to reveal more advanced charting techniques, but the market opens in less than an hour, and I gotta save something for the book...

Looks like were off to the races, but we've reached to top of the new range, and time for some consolidation, in what I believe is wave 2.

Yesterday we traded into what looked like a bullish leading diagonal triangle - in wave 1 - and from there we should've seen some consolidation in wave 2. The market sold off in a straight line (to the 2495 level), and that's an impulse wave, so I've updated that sell-off to a powerful wave c/iv, which was followed by a new market high in wave 5 (of 1).

$SPX - yesterdays chart - I put the arrows on yesterday's chart to show how I though this might play out in a simple A-B-C correction. Instead the market broke out - not surprising at all. 

$SPX updated chart. Now that most bearish traders have capitulated it's time to pull back in what will most likely be a simple A-B-C correction. I'm anticipating an 3-3-5 correction, meaning wave A subdivides into 3, as does the snap-back rally in wave B, which is followed by a powerful wave C (a 5 wave impulse). I'm 2503 is key support, and I expect it to hold above that level. With any luck we can complete the entire correction in 1 day, but could take 2 days and that would set another bear trap for the first trading day of the month - Monday.

Take Care, and good luck.

Donations to help keep this website operating are appreciated. PayPal link is in the side menu. 

Wednesday, September 27, 2017

Market Update - Preparing for WWIII & the Collapse in Global Equities 9/27/2017

The good news is that there's still plenty of time to prepare for the coming chaos, and I've been busy doing just that, and was up late last night brain-storming... but let's go to the charts.

$SPX  - the chart looks like a mess, because trading is choppy. We just came out of a period of extended consolidation, as the market continues to try to build a base above the 2500 (2495) level. Keep in mind this is a 1 min chart, and these moves are smaller than they look...

#INDU - Dow 5 min chart: Looks like the bear trap was set going into Friday's close, just as I had predicted...

We have not even seen as much as a pullback in the $RUT, and that doesn't point to a risk off scenario, and the $VIX continues to stay down. There's just no fear in the market, and that can point to complacency, but it is what it is. Money is being put to work, and money moves markets, and until some event causes working folks to stop investing in their 401k's that trend is going to continue.

I thought the market may top out in a few weeks, around the 2530 - 50 level, but at this rate, it could take the rest of the year.

I remain bearish energy, and money managers need to show they're invested in the best performing sector, Tech, and there's still 2 day's left in the quarter. I'm expecting to see the sector rotation, we've seen over the last few months, reverse. "There's always a bear market somewhere".

Looks like we saw the pump and dump in energy on Monday, but time will tell...

Short term the market is anticipating republican tax cuts, and probably going to get it. There's your catalyst...  but then what? Once all the good news is priced in, and everyone is bullish, and fully invested, there's only one thing left to do, and that's to take profits. Hopefully that's the catalyst for a nasty reversal, and not some cataclysmic event. The first leg down, even in a crash is usually written off as a "healthy correction", and buyers step in.... It would be highly unusual to see a sudden crash, and a continuing crash, unless this time is different.

I'm not expecting WWIII any time soon, but a cyber attack, an EMP attack on the east coast, a nuclear attack on a major city, or even a natural disaster, staged (false flag) or real, are all possible catalyst for a major market reversal, and few are prepared for it, and when I say "prepared", I'm talking in a survival sense, not trading. There may be no trading... markets may be closed, as well as banks, and ATMs. Hoard some cash, drinking water, canned goods, batteries, and think about how you're going to cook, and keep warm, if you lose power in the winter. 

I'd like to blog, or vlog, on the subject of preparedness, but it's takes a lot of time to put something like that together.

Out of Time, AA


Monday, September 25, 2017

Market Update 9/25/17 - Advanced Charting Techniques, & the Financial #FakeNews

Seeing futures down this morning, as predicted on Friday.

The Fake News at CNBC was reporting this morning, that the Trump administrations new travel restrictions are responsible for the market weakness... a total fabrication!  

The truth is: The market continues to consolidate in the same range... in a complicated combination pattern, as it continues to try to build a base above the (SPX) 2500 level.

SPX - Elliott Wave Combination pattern is labeled (W) - (X) - (Y) - (X), and may complete a final pattern (Z) as soon as today, before breaking out to higher highs.

$SOX wants to pullback to support, but may consolidate a little higher first.

Energy looks like sell, but could hold up for a couple more days, as it did in July. Looking for 3 doji reversal candles in a row.

Gold seems to be building a base. It hasn't seen so much as a snap-back rally since the reversal a few weeks ago...

That's about it.

Markets look like it could complete a major topping formation in a few weeks. Not sure if that means a sudden crash, or just a normal pullback, but I'm not taking any chances. I continue to prepare for the worst, and encourage others to do the same. Stockpile some canned goods, rice, bottled water, and batteries. Stock up on any medications, and freeze some water jugs, so have ice on hand, in the event of a grid collapse. Most these things have a long shelf life, so none of it will go to waste, in the event nothing happens.

Prepare for the worst, and hope for the best. 


Thursday, September 21, 2017

Rigged Markets & the Financial Collapse News - Update 9/21/2017

Wow, what a great trading day we saw on Wed., and once again we declare victory over the rigged market! Not that we saw any really big moves, but the charts were firing on all cylinders, and I was able to call several market reversals in real time. We even managed to get on the right side of the gold miner trade, switching from bullish, to bearish, after updating the chart in the AM. It was a grand slam!

To Review: 

1. Right off the bat, we identified resistance on the $SPX, at the (higher) open. Good example of why higher highs aren't necessarily bullish. In fact all market tops are found at new highs, and if you find yourself getting squeezed out of your short bets on every new high, you have no conviction... and at some point you're going to end up buying the top instead of selling into it.

2. Called the reversal on the $VIX. Of course this coincided with the bottom on the $SPX.

3. Called the sell-off in gold miners
4. Correctly identified the stop-hunt on the $SOX index. Broke down right where I predicted...
5. Found support on the Apple chart

6. Found support on the SPX, and updated the next target, before it closed in the green.

7. Confirmed the bullish trend on the $RUT, to confirm the risk on trade. 

You didn't think the powers that be would allow the market to sell off on a holiday (Rosh Hashanah), did you? Rigged

 “And that’s all I’ve got to say about that”!


Wednesday, September 20, 2017

Rigged Market Update and the Global Collapse News 9/20/2017

This is horrible trading, watching the market tread water just above the 2500 level, while investors, and money managers wait for another green-light from The Fed. I thought the fake financial news reported just a few months ago, that Fed policy was no longer an issue, in a break-away economy... that a hoax! The Fed is the market's security blanket.

Remember this rally started with a relief rally, after Florida hurricane, Irma, turned out to be a nothing burger. This also coincided with money managers returning from summer break, and being forced to chase performance, just as I had predicted they would...  markets are cyclical.

Yesterday, after 3 hours of searching I finally found a trade in $GDX (gold miners), and it looks like the $GDX will continue to snap-back with gold. Gold, and gold miners, seem to be the new fear trade, as the $VIX continues to be artificially beaten down (rigged)... Guess it's not so easy to manipulate precious metals. Still, I'm only looking for a snap-back rally in gold miners. 

$SOX - in wave 5 of 5 (trading into a major top) - managed to eek out a new high. Will probably hold up into the Fed news, and may even retest the highs before tumbling back to earth.

$RUT is also overbought, and looks like it's about to crack, if you prefer less volatility (risk)... I don't have a downside target, but the RUT should trade with the rest of the market. Could pullback as far as 1389 in a risk off situation.

FOMC announcements are usually followed by lower volatility, but since the market seems to have already priced in any good news... I would only expect this to be a "sell the news" event, or a very short lived relief rally. That would look like a a sell into strength, going into the close, scenario.

That's all the time I have. Follow me @3xtraders


Tuesday, September 19, 2017

Rigged Markets & the Financial Collapse News - Update 9/19/2017

Finished my outdoor project over the weekend, and came back to some of the same technical technical problems I've been struggling with over the past year. Computer freezing on shut down, and refusing to recognize certain solid state drives... got that all sorted out yesterday, and it's good to be back. 

Put on my Elliott Wave hat this morning and drew up some new charts.

$SPX  Looks like we put in a major market top yesterday - in wave 5, so watch for (2500) support to break down some time today. 


$INDU - Depending on how long wave 2 consolidation takes to complete, we could see the snap-back rally coincide with Oct OPEX. 

$VIX - yesterday's breakout seen on yesterday's chart. Watch for the breakout, to confirm the reversal. If it doesn't happen today, then maybe tomorrow, on the FOMC statement.

Depending on what the Fed is planning to, that could be the catalyst for the selling, but we're also getting closer to Brexit, and could see a violent reversal in the $GBP, and the $USD. This could be related to new Iran sanctions, because Europe is still making deals with Iran...  

$USD - watch for the mother of all short squeezes...

$GBP - Watch for a violent reversal into a powerful primary wave (C) ... once the sugar high wears off.

$BitCoin Yesterday's short squeeze in bitcoin, confirms what I said about it being shorted some how. I'd be a seller....

That's all the time I have.

Take care, AA

Friday, September 15, 2017

Black - Crude Oil - Friday - Rigged Market update & Financial Collapse News 9/15/2017

So North Korea/ China fires another missile over Japan, and judging by what I'm seeing in the pre-market (very little movement), looks like it wants to shrug it off on this Friday OPEX.

I find Options Expiration Friday's particularly difficult to predict, because Options markets are the most rigged of all. For that reason, any times you'll see markets pinned on OPEX. They just want to get paid on their options after driving stocks in a certain direction each month. Every so often you'll see the rug pulled on on OPEX, and nobody likes paying for insurance (in the form of put options), on expiration day. I can only remember 1 day in recent memory, that we saw a "bloody OPEX", but it happens.

Happily, I haven't had to watch the market trade basically flat all week; I've been busy with several out door projects... the weather in Chicago has been gorgeous, and I didn't miss watching a flat market all week. Today I'm at a good stopping point, and it's supposed to get hot, so I'll be watching markets a little more closely.

I've already put some extra time in, charting this morning, and markets look worse than ever. 

Oil - Possible crash to new recent lows "in a hurry, with a fury...". Possible wave 3 of C - a very, very, powerful wave. If the chart is correct; should look like a crash.

There are a couple things that could take the market down. Oil and energy is one of them. BitCoin is the other. There's a lot of money invested in BitCoin, and I suspect several large hedge funds, and when it unwinds, the baby will have to be thrown out with the bathwater. I suspect the bankers have found a way to short bitcoin, and they're the ones behind the pump, and dump. Crytpo-currencies are a direct threat to The Fed and our fiat currency. 

The Dow - After updating the chart, it looks like a major topping formation, and unless $TRAN can lead, fund managers aren't buying into this fake rally.

$INDU - possible extended wave 5 in a megaphone top.


This could be the end of the line for the bull market of the past 8 years, or at least the beginning of the end. I wouldn't be talking any chances here, in fact I would be NET short.

If the market looks like it's going to hold up into OPEX, I'll be away from my desk again, but I'll be glued to the news, and close-by. 

Have a great weekend.

Wednesday, September 13, 2017

Rigged Markets & the Financial Collapse - Update 9/13/2017

I haven't been paying very close attention to the markets this week, but that didn't keep me from nailing yesterday's open, within a few hundreds of a point! This isn't the first time... but I still can't help but get excited when I nail a target like that!  

We've seen many stocks ($KORS, $PLAY $DKS, $AMC , $BWLD just to name a few), and the retail sector, getting killed, over recent months, yet the rigged market continues to trade near all time highs. It's a balancing act, and not easy to anticipate which sector will get trashed next. We don't trade retail; I don't know of any easy way to short it, and it's probably too late for that anyhow. 

For example: $AMC


Recently, we saw the typical short squeezes... engineered on light holiday volume, and certain stocks continue to run, for example $GM which I called out months ago.

What we haven't seen is tech being sold, and that is proof the market is rigged. Nobody cares if any number of stocks lose 20% a day, but you don't see them selling $AMZN, or $AAPL, because that would draw too much attention... and cause the $VIX to rise, and we can't have that! The market is rigged, and those who continue to pump the tech sector are behind it, in my opinion (disclaimer).

 Big tech is going to crash, and I see a top already developing, in Apple.  

$AAPL - so much for those who predicted that Apple was going to soar, when it unveiled several more (of the same) over-priced iphones.

We saw the Dow bounce off the 50 day ma again, and that brings with it program buying, and gives the appearance that stocks are bullish. Stocks trading above the 50 day, and the 50 day trading above the 200 day, is a no-brainier, to most money managers, and even the average investor... but we've tested this average at least 4 times now, and that's not bullish. Just as upward resistance that continues to retest, tends to break out, support that continues to retest, may eventually break down.

 I don't like the broader market, and most stocks are not rallying higher. It's a stock pickers market, and I've done some buying, but I'd rather trade sectors, or commodities. Whatever works I guess...

$GDX - Found this pattern (looks like consolidation) on the $GDX yesterday. I wouldn't trade it right here, but I would buy a retest of the recent lows, going into Friday, OPEX.

Once we see the big tech names top out, there's a fortune to be made selling the crash, but I think we're still a few weeks away.... possibly in conjunction with a crash in BitCoin. More on that later 

I'm still busy working outside, doing some carpentry, this week, but I should be back charting full time as soon as Friday.


Tuesday, September 12, 2017

Rigged Markets & the Financial Collapse - Update 9/12/2017

Got our relief rally on Monday; exactly what I had predicted...

This Tuesday morning we're seeing futures up by 3 points. Looks pretty weak, and I suspect we're seeing another pump and dump.

I could care less if the S&P hits 2500, but these round numbers get a lot attention on the trading floor, and gets reported as bullish, by the fake financial news.  

I put a bullish channel on a 1 min chart, and this is what I came up with (see the chart below).   

 The $VIX held support I pointed out at yesterday's open, but will probably take out the $10 target.

Emerging markets, and global utilities have lead this rally, another great prediction... They made new highs yesterday. I don't like the chart. I don't even like it if it breaks out and holds up for 6 weeks.

It seems like years since we've seen even a 10% pullback. It's actually been 15 months, and I've remained bullish since the 2016 low. I'm not chasing this!  I'm preparing for the next global financial collapse, or worse. I mean I'm stockpiling food, and whatever else I think my family might need when the shit hits the fan. I suspect we'll see a sharp correction, and another rally in 2018, but it's better to be safe than sorry. 

I'll be away from my desk most the day.

If this rally continues we'll continue to try to find the top, but I have no interest in chasing it.


Wednesday, September 6, 2017

Market Update 9/6/2017

Got our sell-off as predicted in the last update, and even nailed the timeline, "Technical Tuesday".

The $VIX spiked, taking out resistance on the 5 min chart, before reversing.

Not sure if the market is going to trade in a range, or if this is the beginning of a larger correction, but for now you have to assume it's going to trade the range we've been watching for the past several weeks.

Levels to watch are the 50 day ma on the Dow (21725), "" $SPX 2458, and $VIX 13 (resistance).

Resistance on the $SPX looks like 2470 - 2474.

Follow my twitter for the latest developments.