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Friday, March 31, 2023

Comparing Today's Financial Collapse to The Crash of '08

Is this a repeat of what we saw in late '07-'08.  It's too soon to say, but the similarities can't be ignored! 

Last year some people were claiming that the charts were reminiscent of the crash of 2000, and I debunked that. 

Comparing Today's Market To The Market Crashes of '08, & 2000

Today, I'm seeing something in the banking sector charts, that looks eerily similar to what we saw just ahead of the crash of 2008, and I suppose that's why I'm up at 2-3AM - most days - analyzing the action in Europe! More on that in a minute.  

$DJUSFN (Financials) Monthly Candlesticks - For those who missed the banking crisis of '08, this is the chart most of us used to track the financial collapse. The Dow Financials, or the $IYF (which is the corresponding ETF). Of course many traders like to use the $XLF, but I find it to be less accurate... 

What I want to draw your attention to on the chart below is the similarity of what we saw in late '07, and what we just saw in March 2023. Very similar timelines, and big red candle taking out support. 

Taking a closer look at how this take down was engineered

$BANK (Bank Index Nasdaq) - It looks like this collapse was planned for at least 10 months, and no doubt bearish Options were purchased during that time. This explains why the $VIX was mercilessly hammered - lower - during the same time frame. The lower the $VIX the; cheaper the Puts.    

If this was all timed according to the options market, that means we probably aren't going to see much upside until after April OPEX. 

It would be easy to figure out who coordinated this, just by looking at who was buying puts ahead of it, but don't hold your breath waiting for that investigation! 

Of course there will be good trading in this sector at some point, because every good crash deserves a snap-back rally, but unless you traded in '08, you may be better off avoiding this trade altogether.

I'd also stay alert to other sectors wh
ich may follow.... 

Seems to me, money panicked out of financials, and investors rushed in to buy tech, oil, gold, and even bitcoin. 

By the way, I recently raised my target on Bitcoin, just before we saw another higher high, on Thursday.

 Take Care, 

Thursday, March 30, 2023

Raising my Target on Bitcoin

2 updates today: 

Firstly - 

Raising my Target on Bitcoin 

I actually raised the target on Bitcoin yesterday, this was before we saw Bitcoin driven up to the 29k level, in the early morning hours.   

It's probably going to look like a topping pattern, at or around the 30,000 level, I would think some time before the summer break, in July.       

Of course the short term, and long term risk, is now to the downside. 

More on this in my second update, to follow... 

Take Care, 


Wednesday, March 29, 2023

Trades that are working

Trades that are working  

If you caught the CNBC Fast Money show last night, then you may already know what trades I'm about to reveal. Of course, TV traders don't reveal the trades that have been working, until they want to unload those trades onto an unsuspecting public, and I'm getting ready to exit at least one of the trades I'm about to mention. 

1. Restaurants 

March 24th: Restaurant Stock Rally Continues, But It's Not What You Think 

The first stock mentioned in that article is Red Robin Gourmet Burgers Inc.? That's a stretch.... If I wanted a gourmet burger in Chicago, Red Robin wouldn't be my first choice! 

$RRGB Red Robin - This thing has been on a tear for the past 3 weeks, after breaking out above the 10.46 level. Sure it can probably go to $16, but at this point, the risk is to the downside. 

I wouldn't trade most the restaurant stocks on that list, let alone eat there, for all the tea in China.

Chicago is best known for its Deep Dish Pizza, but we got everything here!  

We have a Heavy Metal themed restaurant in Chicago called Kuma's Corner, that's always fun. All the burgers are named after metal bands, and metal music is always blaring... skulls and upside-down crosses adorn the walls. It's like Halloween, every day of the year!   

That's just one of the 22 burger places in Chicago - linked below. 
22 best burgers in Chicago (linked)

I prefer grass fed beef, quality ingredients, and no bun. A healthy burger salad, and I know where to get one at Oak Restaurant, but I digress!  


Tuesday, March 28, 2023

Market Update 3/28/23

March came in like a lion, but it didn't go out like a lamb. It's going out, more like an inch worm, or a Caterpillar. 

The broader market is hardly moving, and lacks any sort of momentum, in either direction. 

Seems like we're left waiting for the next shoe to drop. 

In the meantime I continue updating my charts, and folders.  

In yesterday's update I pointed to the breakout above the 200 day moving average, which I predicted, on Friday, and that's exactly what we saw at the open, but that was followed by another gap fade. 

The market may be a tough read right here, but it certainly isn't broken. 

Fear remains high 

I just heard someone on Bloomberg say the market is being thinly traded, on fear, and that's about right. 

You have some investors who don't know if they can trust the regulators, or even Janet Yellen, but the real reason the market is thinly traded, is because window dressing season is over, and traders are looking ahead at the long holiday, which kicks off with a shortened trading week, next week, and continues into the end of Passover, on April 12th. Perhaps they are letting the sell orders pile up, and they're keeping their ammo dry.... 

Whether the plan includes shaking out retail investors, on light volume, as I hypothesized yesterday; many money managers won't return to put money to work, until the 17th, regardless...   

Low volume, and relatively low volatility to continue. It would be great to see a shakeout, but we may only see that in certain sectors. 

The market trades one sector at a time. 

It would be great if the financial networks would point out which sectors are leading, but that's up to you to figure out. I don't have time to chart 15 different sectors, and then predict each one. In fact it would take more than one person to orchestrate all these trades... 

One of these days/ years the market will trade in a straight line again, but until then it's going to be tough sledding. 

I just glanced over to see $SPX futures testing the 4000 level again - in real time.  

$SPX futures - no change from yesterday. Very short term the trend remains down, and appears to be trading in a declining megaphone pattern. Intermediate term the trend - off the Oct lows - remains up.

I think this weakness in futures may be a head-fake. 

$WLSH The Wilshire 5000 is the thing to watch, since foreign money continues to be put to work there. Watch for support at the 200 day moving average, and res. at the 50 day. You may even find the chart pattern on a daily candlestick view, so get to work charting it! 

Good Luck, AA


Monday, March 27, 2023

Market Update 3/27/23

To get caught up to speed; see the weekly wrap-up I blogged on Sat. 

Weekly wrap-up Financials, Zombie Banks, Tech, China, and a CME

Market futures are higher as expected, with several bank stocks leading 

US Futures Rise as Banks Rally; Treasuries Dip: Markets Wrap yahoo

Saw this coming, or course 
Financials are only up 2% in upmarket, so I doubt this is a sustainable rally 

Market Futures 

One thing I wanted to mention this morning, is the divergence between the $SPX, and $SPX futures, which I first noticed last week, and drew attention to in a tweet, last night.  

Futures markets don't always match up, but this is a pretty extreme divergence. Not sure what it means, but I suspect some sort of manipulation?  

Taking a closer look at $SPX ES1 (futures). A 30 minute chart shows its trending lower, and we certainly could see another washout, below the 3800 level.  

The tech sector continues to rally

$SOX leads tech, so that's the sector to watch...

$SOX 10 min. chart view. looks like we're in wave 4, which could last the rest of the week. 

That would set up for a final push into wave 5 next week, as new money get's put to work in April.

I think the hedge funds are going to want to lighten up on their short positions, ahead of the Passover holiday, and that gives the bulls the perfect opportunity to take profits, on relatively light volume/volatility. 

We could even see tech continue to hold up as retail short sellers are squeezed, ahead of April OPEX. Short covering could even continue into Memorial Day. 

A new bullish sentiment indicator 

When I heard this news reported on Friday, I immediately moved 401k money out of the safety trade - where it's been sitting for the past 2 months, and back into riskier assets. 

There's still the possibility of another shakeout, but the longer term trend remains higher. 

Head Fake Rally Confirmed 

If you recall back before this correction began, I predicted that the market was trading in a head-fake rally - in wave "b"? 

That wave "b" can be confirmed on the financials chart below.   

What does this mean? Probably means that we're going to see a powerful wave C rally in financials, before we see another crash later in the year. 

Take Care, AA 


Saturday, March 25, 2023

Weekly wrap-up Financials, Zombie Banks, Tech, China, and a CME

There's a lot to cover after last week, but I have a much better handle on things than I did on Thursday, following what looked like a panic close....

 See: The FOMC fallout in forex markets & the Crypto Crackdown - full story

Despite all the negative headlines, stocks actually ended higher (for the week). 

Friday's Action 

We didn't get the short squeeze I was looking for, but I did get the direction right. 

 Market futures looked pretty dire at the time I made that prediction, but the market still managed to eek out a pretty nice gain - 50 handles on the $SPX - (off the lows of the session). 

Off topic: 

I follow space weather, because a CME has the potential to wipe out way more than just the stock market - and this week's Solar Storm put on quite a show! 

Huge ‘doomsday’ blast from sun this week could have killed Earth’s internet

Strongest solar storm in nearly 6 years slams into Earth catching forecasters by surprise

I retweeted this CME alert on the 23rd, because I could see it was massive, and if I see another massive CME pop up on my radar, I may send out an alert in the news letter, because that could be a catastrophic event, as much as we rely on technology! 

Speaking of Technology

Stocks actually ended up for the week, but I have to attribute that to 1st quarter window dressing. The best performing sector was tech, and of course China. Remember this is what led the rally - in Oct. - and tech out-performed in the 1st quarter.  

Window Dressing 

As we trade into the end of the First Quarter, any fund manager not fully invested in a leading sector, risks losing his, or her, job. We call this phenomenon, "being forced to chase performance". It's also called window dressing.    

Side note: $AAPL Apple Here's something funny. 

Just for kicks, I put a trend line on Apple, and tweeted it on Thursday 

Then Yesterday Friday, I see Carter Worth on Fast Money, covering Apple.  

If you happened to catch that, maybe you can tell me if he was bullish or bearish, because it just seemed wishy-washy as all get out. But I digress.  

What Next? 

If I'm correct, then we're about to see a run for the exits, as most brokerage houses have already closed their books on the Quarter. I call this phenomenon, "window dressing - going up in flames".  

Financials and Banks

As I said earlier in the week, this market reminds me of '08, when financials led the crash, and I still follow financials closely, including all the major banks, and even several regional banks. 

The financial crisis didn't end in '08. 

The Zombie Banks are like the walking dead, and require regular injections (of money) in order to keep them alive. 

Anyone who believes otherwise, just either doesn't have a good chart, or a good memory. 

Many of these Regional Banks are skating on thin ice, but I think we've seen the worst for now. 

The plunge protection team even came out in support of the banking sector after Friday's close.

Breaking News after the closing bell on Friday - FSOC (Financial Stability Oversight Council) aka the plunge protection team 

U.S. Treasury says FSOC agreed banking system sound

Short term  

Financials trade into a bullish inverted Head & Shoulders pattern 

The $XLF didn't quite reach the (inverted) left shoulder target, so maybe we see another washout. 

This is obviously a super high risk trade, but this is how I roll!  

I don't like to rush into a trade like this, because the pattern is so obvious, to even the most unsophisticated investor, and no doubt many retail investors have already piled in. 

Watch for a Monday morning surprise, to shake them out. This has become the new normal; 
break key support, then back up the truck.

It's a crooked game. 

Speaking of ill gotten gains; Goldman Sachs is a name to watch, since they seem to be doing pretty well in the current environment. I call them, "government Sachs", because so many former GS work in the Treasury. I'm not sure why anyone would give up a high paying job in finance, to go work for the government, but who am I to judge?!   

26 Goldman Sachs Alumni Who Run the World (GS) investopedia


$GS Goldman Sachs trending higher 

Take Care, 

Friday, March 24, 2023

Short Squeeze Friday 3/24/23

Could see a short squeeze today; it is Friday, after all. 

I'm sure professional traders are looking for a washout, before they put money to work, and perhaps that's why we're seeing futures lower again this morning. They want to shake out the retail investor.

Of course it's those fast money traders... and fast money can turn on a dime, and especially in a bear market, on a Friday.

Futures are lower

This morning the rug was pulled out in Europe, right at the open, and that pulled US futures lower. I was up at 3AM watching the whole thing unfold. 

Bearish Sentiment

Twitter is a great measure of herd mentality; just search "market crash", for instance, and you'll find that is still trending pretty hard. 

I also see Deutsche Bank trending in the #1 spot, on my recommended feed.

Bloomberg is seen contributing to that hype

I now see CNBC fanning the flames on European Banks, and Becky Quick repeatedly reporting that "the European banks are in crisis". I wonder who she's trying to help by screaming fire in a crowded theater; perhaps she has skin in the game? 

Whatever her motivation, I can look at the chart, and tell you this is nothing to get excited about. 


Bloomberg refuses to report that the next French Revelation seems to be well underway:

 You won't see that reported by the corporate owned lame stream media, because they support socialism.

‘Democracy at stake’: French protesters vent fury at Macron over pension push 

A montage of President Emmanuel Macron as the "Sun King" Louis XIV at a protest in Paris on March 23, 2023. © Benjamin Dodman, FRANCE

Now you might ask, how can you remain bullish when banks are failing, and it looks like the powers that be are hell bent on starting WWIII, in order to divert attention away from their failures, and let me tell you, it ain't easy!

Like I said yesterday, I trust what I'm seeing in the charts, and even when the world is in turmoil, money has to be, and will be, put to work, at the appointed times.

I don't trade on emotion.

Yesterday's Market Action

There was a point yesterday, where it looked like the market might sell off again, but that turned out to be a false alarm.

Re: Timing

Unless you're able to time markets like I do, in real time, you're not going to get the trade consistently right.

Sometimes I'm required to do additional charting after the market has closed, and even on weekends, and especially when volatility is this high, and that requires a lot of due diligence!

If you are new to this, then you're only guessing at market direction, and probably being influenced by the herd, and that's a losing strategy.

Good luck,

Thursday, March 23, 2023

The FOMC fallout in forex markets & the Crypto Crackdown

 There's a hellofalot to cover this morning, so I'm just going to throw a lot of spaghetti at the wall, and see what sticks - hopefully I can sort most of this out, in the next few days.

My proof reader is also away so you're probably going to find some misspelled words, and typos.

The FOMC fallout in forex markets & the Crypto Crackdown 

You may not think forex, or crypto markets affect your trade, but everything is connected. 

Firstly: The Fed did what was expected - raising .25 basis points - and I believe the only reason they did it, is because they know they must defend the almighty petrodollar. 

3 weeks ago:

Russia Turns to China’s Yuan in Effort to Ditch the Dollar wsj 

12 hours ago: 

Putin, Xi Vow to Use Yuan as Russia and China Move to Settlements in National Currencies

This morning: 

Lindsay Lohan, other celebs settle with SEC over crypto case

"LOS ANGELES (AP) — Actress Lindsay Lohan, rapper Akon and several other celebrities have agreed to pay tens of thousands of dollars to settle claims they promoted crypto investments to their millions of social media followers without disclosing they were being paid to do so." (story continues) 

Also This Morning 

U.S. SEC threatens to sue Coinbase over some crypto products reuters

Didn't I tell you they were going to go after Crypto, and I think this is just the beginning!


Speaking of alternate currencies, I think there's a good chance precious metals get taken down here! 

I don't usually pump other people's trades, but this deserves some attention!

  $SLVP Silver miners 

If this is indeed wave 5, the next shakeout could be devastating! 

Getting back to yesterday's Fed's announcement, and more importantly, the market's reaction to it. 

The market seemed to over react, as or was that a bear raid, or an actual reversal? Looks like a reversal, walks like a reversal.

$SPX 15 min. chart view updated from yesterday

 We see the market recovering somewhat this morning, and I can't confirm a bearish reversal, after only 1 hour of selling. Still I would err on the side of caution. 

 To be honest, the market action left me a little spooked, and I don't spook easily.

I even went so far as to liquidate some losing positions, further diversify my portfolio, and hedge myself a little better. Come what may, at least I'm not going to be wiped out... 

It wasn't until the final minutes of the trading day that we saw the selling accelerate, but it really started with a gap down on the $USD.... 

The FOMC fallout in forex markets

The DXY ($USD index) is what really spooked me 

I pinned down what was going on in the DXY chart, and put out a dozen tweets, but then I went back and deleted most of it. That's one of the nice things about Twitter, you can delete information... 

Wasn't I just saying investors seem to be fleeing the $USD?

I've also been anticipating the same ol', pump 'n' dump trade in tech, and low and behold, that's exactly what we saw. 

Emerging markets initially rallied on the News, but that also rolled over, and gave it all back... 

We're also seeing our favorite contrarian indicator pump the NASDAQ, and that's a red flag warning. 

“Short this [N]asdaq and invite me to your funeral,” Cramer warns in a recent tweet. 

That kind of arrogance scares me. You would think Cramer would lay low, after getting the regional banks so wrong! I'm surprised CNBC isn't named in a class action law suit!  

Let's go to the charts: 


I thought I was seeing a bullish setup on the biotech chart... 

Of course that chart pattern was obliterated, just an hour or so after I alerted to it. 

Taking another look at it, it seems to have traded into the lower end of a larger bullish pattern, and that points to the hedge funds attempting to shake the weak hands out. 

$XBI - I may not like Jim Cramer's NASDAQ, but I do like this sub-sector (biotech)! Bulk buy!


 The S&P $SPX 

This index actually closed on a bullish note, that's why you see buyers stepping up, this morning.  

As I explained to some Newbie - I ran across on Twitter - as I was updating the charts: 

The market definitely has a lot to prove here, and I suspect we could take at least another day, to build a base. It's too soon to say.... 

$NYSE - Yeah, nobody trades this index, but it's a good representation of the broader market, and because it's not watched by every trader on Wall Street, it's not being manipulated like the $SPX. 

You don't see the $NYSE trading above the 200 day moving average. In fact it was sold there! 

The Dow Jones 

$INDU - I'm a firm believer in not fighting the trend 

Furthermore the $VIX bounced out of the hole, at the 20 level, and that was enough to spook me. 

As far as my bold prediction on the $SPX goes targets can always be revised lower:

Take Care, 


Wednesday, March 22, 2023

Market Update Wed. March, 22nd, 2023 - 3/22/2023 - ahead of the FOMC Announcement

Looking back at yesterday's market action: 

The market went exactly where we expected, and below is the chart I prepared, and blogged, just ahead of yesterday's opening bell, to prove it.  

$SPX Before

$SPX After - nearly rallies to key resistance. 

Not to brag; it's just that if I don't point out how often I'm right, nobody would believe it. 
To be honest it can be rather difficult predicting markets, but I'm the living proof, it can be done. 

In fact, I started to document how many big moves I've called correctly over the past 3 years, but I'll save that for the book. 

Another thing to mention about yesterday's market action, is that several major indices broke out above the 200 day moving average.  

Yesterday's Sector Rotation 

Certain sectors rallied harder than others, including financials. While defensive sectors, like Utilities, and Gold, were mostly lower. 

RE: Bank Crisis/ Collapse 

There's no doubt in my mind; financial collapse is coming, but this just looks like a dress rehearsal. 

REITs (Real Estate Investment Trusts)

One thing I learned during the financial collapse of '08, is that one sector that will collapse with the banking sector, is real-estate, so that's something to watch closely. I'm seeing an interesting setup there, if you're looking for a trade; $99 gets you all the charts you need to trade it for the next 30 days. There's a Paypal link in the side menu. I can also provide traders with commodities charts, and even FX, but that's going to cost you $299 per month. 

This morning - while most pf the #FinTwit Apes are looking at GameStop up over 30% - we're also seeing Vornado Realty Trust ($VNO). well off the recent lows, and this after a nearly 5% gain for the week. That doesn't point to a regional bank collapse; it actually points to risk having been already priced in. 

Today's FOMC Announcement

 I suspect The Fed banksters are going to do another hike, in order to further tighten liquidity, and they may as well use inflation as an excuse.... 

 You see a lot of pontificators on gloomberg, and elsewhere, trying to predict what the Fed is going to do, but you don't have to predict what's going to happen today, in order to profit off it.

Today's FOMC announcement is going to offer clarity, and the market likes clarity. However, if you see the $VIX spiking on the news, then you would want to "sell the news".

I could give you tons of tips on how to read the market, but I gotta save something for the book. 

If you're new to this, be sure to checkout: 

The Best Call Of The Year - Excellent Trading Environment Continues

Take Care, 


Tuesday, March 21, 2023

Market Update - Technical Tuesday - Let's Get Technical!

 Happy Technical Tuesday! 

Hopefully the market starts moving again, after taking what is now a 6 day pause? More and more I think the hedge funds are short handed - like every other business seems to be - so it just takes a lot longer to load the algos. If you don't know what that means, just put it on a shelf

For instance: It was just a couple weeks ago that I posed the question, "How Long Can The Market Continue To Trade Sideways", and no sooner than I published that piece, the rug was pulled out....

$FRC - for example - See where the stock traded flat for 12 days, before the run was pulled (below my red support line). That's not a typo. That red line was key support, and the powers that be knew exactly what they were doing, when they took that level out. 

That chart is a perfect example of a take down, and it's kind of cool, that I knew enough not to trust that sideways action, or the constantly hammered $VIX. Instead I told traders to decrease their exposure, and reduce their risk. Did anyone listen? Probably not, but that's typical...

First Republic made a fresh low yesterday - by the way - on news that Jamie Dimon and the racketeers (at JP Morgan), are circling the wagons... and if Credit Suisse was only worth $2b, how much is $FRC worth? 

This is a good example of why I always say, "valuation means nothing", and if you watched any CNBC Fast Money - over the past several days - all they can do is scratch their heads, and shrug their shoulders.

Futures are pointing to a higher open this morning:


Looks like that 4000 level is resistance, at the upper trend line. 

$SPX 15 min. chart - looks like a breakout, although you shouldn't put too much weight in a short term chart like this. 

If you can see chart patterns, then you should already see the one that's going to reveal itself at the open. What pattern?

$SPX - this pattern - an upturned triangle pattern. What does that mean? If you don't know, you obviously have some homework to do. Try a google search.... 

What next? 

$SPX - Anticipate the next move, and update the chart accordingly 

That's what I mean when I talk about staying 1 step ahead of the game. 

You should also know that this target coincides with the 50 day moving average, which is trading at the 4010 level. 

How about that for some technical levels, on a Technical Tuesday! 

Now learn to do this on 12 different sectors, and watch 30 different chart views, at once, and the $VIX, and the rest.... you'll be well on your way to being among the top 5% of traders, who consistently beat the market.   

I think once I achieve critical mass, I should publish a teaching series, and then publish additional yearly updates, because the market we're trading today probably won't be the same market a year from now, or 10 years from now.  

Monday, March 20, 2023

Weekly Wrap Up, & Taking A Look At The Week Ahead - covering Tech, Energy, The S&P ($SPX), and Bitcoin

To get you caught up to speed: 

Despite the crazy news cycle; the market has basically been chopping around in a tight range for the past week, and we're not seeing much selling this Monday morning, and I suppose that's because we have a long holiday coming up, and smart traders don't increase their short positions, ahead of a break. 

Weekly Wrap Up - 

March came in like a Bear, as predicted Feb 7th: 

And reiterated in my Bold Call on the $SPX, dated March 1st 

 You've probably heard the term, "March comes in like a Lion, and out like a Lamb". Well in this case, March would come in like a Bear (market), and go out like a Bull (market). 

Will I be correct on the second part of that prediction? Only time will tell, but I have 15 $SPX charts working, and several different possible outcomes, including the one below. 

$SPX - 

1. Bounced off the 3800 level a week ago. 

2. Support looks like 3885

3. res. remains at the 4000 level

You should recognize the pattern as a triple zigzag A-B-(W), A-B-(Y), A-B-(Z) 

Makes sense that the market manipulators would want to squeeze the short sellers into the spring, "sell in May, and go away". 

The Banks

I made mention of the big banks in this week's newsletter, and I think there's still a good chance we could see a powerful snapback rally on some of these Regional Zombie Banks, like this one, I called out on Friday. 

First Republic $FRC 

Looks like we're seeing more weakness in the banking sector this morning, with Credit Suisse being bought out for 80 cents a share, and bond holders being wiped out.  

Analysis: Credit Suisse rescue presents 'buyer beware' moment for bank bondholders reuters 

I think the only thing that delayed this deal was the Bearish Put Options that were engineer to pay on OPEX Friday, and not only in the failing regional banking sector, but also in the Energy sector. 

Watching Energy & Tech  

As I tweeted out on Friday, "this time was different"; instead of seeing Tech beaten down, and energy driven higher, we saw quite the opposite. 

 That chart is a bit of a mess, even after updating it, but it's really to show the inverse correlation between tech and energy.

Reminder - who was bullish energy, and who was bearish, before we saw the most recent cycle? 

Who was also right on Oil?! 

Seeing Oil down another 3% this morning, but I finished taking profits on Friday    


Bitcoin continues to break higher, but there's still a high risk of a sudden bearish reversal. 

Bitcoin - The climax of the broadening top. 

We recently saw a good example of a broadening top reversal in Dry Ships 


Take Care, 



Friday, March 17, 2023

Market Update Friday March OPEX - Tech/Crypto Crash Setup?

 Today is Options Expiration, so today's action is unpredictable, but I'm seeing a dreadful chart pattern revealing itself on Crypto, and the Tech sector. If you follow my twitter feed I'm sure you've already seen some of the charts, as I continue to sound the warning. I even revealed where I've put on a hedge, albeit perhaps a day too early, and that's fine, because I was Net long going into yesterday's close, and that's no place to be, with the $VIX still trading above 20. 

Speaking of the $VIX, I haven't seen anything reported about Volmageddon, even though we saw what can only be described as massive moves on the $VIX!  

If it's any consolation to the market bulls, I've never seen the market sell off on a St Patrick's Day. 

I am seeing what could be a surprise rally in First Republic, if you're feeling lucky. 

Notice how Gloomberg is only showing the 1 month view of the regional Bank index, as they appeal the the emotions, of the investor with the lowest intelligence. That's fear porn. 

Meanwhile Bloomberg, and every other #fakenews network, goes out of their way to NOT report the riots in socialist France.  

Here's a couple other things you won't see reported: 

 Taxpayer Money being used to bailout Chinese investors


Bitcoin Inflows: 

No doubt Wall Street loves another $300b in money creation, during an already inflationary cycle, and a half point rate hike - next week - is going to do nothing to fix the problem... 

That money has to go somewhere, and all the unnecessary money printing over the years, has helped create the speculation in regional banking, and even Cryto.  

We also continue to see speculation in Tech stocks, and the more I look, the more I'm amazed at how we've seen an orchestrated sector rotation out of certain areas of the market, in order to fuel the rally in tech stocks, including $SOX, which I touched on yesterday

In hindsight, think it's not the smart money chasing tech here, and CNBC World Wide Exchange even mentioned it in their intro this morning. and, I think that means CNBC pro investors, and Jim Cramer's investment club members, have already been alerted to "ring the register"! 


SVB Bank Files for bankruptcy! 

The powers that be, usually wait until after the close, to drop a bombshell like this, but I'm still skeptical that the market can sell-off in a panic today. 

Often, once bad news it out, that's the catalyst for a relief rally, so nothing changes on that news. 

The Charts 

 $DJUSTC - Technology is testing the recent highs, and knowing Wall Street as I do, I'm anticipating the 'ol Pump 'n' Dump. 

Have a great St Paddy's Day, Weekend, 


Thursday, March 16, 2023

Is this Financial Collapse, the beginning of something much bigger? Oil, NatGas, Credit Suisse, First Republic Bank, Treasuries, Gold

 Is this financial collapse, the beginning of something much bigger? 

I love the market volatility; this is great trading, but not so good for investing. 

 Big market moves help reset the charts, which means targets come back into play, unlike the lousy sideways action we were seeing only a few weeks ago. Again, good for technical trading, but panic can feed on itself. Think of it as a negative feedback loop. This can end in forced selling, and we're beginning to see spill-over into different sectors.    

Volatility is one thing; financial collapse would be entirely another, and at some point it could even become un-tradable. Short term, I think the market is oversold, and that sets up for a short term rally, but then what? 

Like I tweeted yesterday: 

I also confirmed the bearish reversal in Europe, something I've been predicting for a while now, and part of the reason I went Net short, ahead of the collapse 

As I said on Feb. 24th:  

Until Europe corrects then I'm going to remain cautious  

Also said:  Maybe hedging with a materials sector short might be a good idea. 

Have you seen the materials sector lately?! 

I'm not saying this is '08 all over again, but it does have some similarities. For one, the financial sector is leading the losses, and without a health financial sector, what is safe? We see many traders running to the safety of gold. Even CNBC Fast Money was seen encouraging retail to invest in Gold. 



 If it is the beginning, of something bigger, then it could even far surpass what we saw in '08. 

I still believe they (the controllers - the money printers) are not going to allow the market to collapse on Joe Biden's watch. Not unless it's in order to do the, "great reset", the one - as I'm sure you know - they've been planning for a while now, and even talking openly about. World Economic Forum: The Great Reset  

 Just look at how tech continues to hold up, just as it did during the covid crash. These people believe that AI, and mass surveillance is the answer to all their problems, and that is all going to require a massive amount of technological infrastructure.    

The Great Reset AKA the AI Takeover may not be what you think 

Getting back to current market conditions 

Just as we saw during the financial collapse of  '08, there will be ferocious snap-back rallies, and any bears caught the wrong side of that trade, were totally wiped out in a day, only to miss out on the next sell off.  Timing is everything! 

Are the retail short sellers aware that First Republic Bank lost over 80% of it's value in 1 week?! That goes way beyond the condition, known as being, "short term, oversold", and we see it down 23% again this morning. 

Have the short sellers forgotten about the Plunge Protection Team? 

Re: Credit Suisse

Credit Suisse shares soar after central bank aid announced

 Another Great Trade  

I'm talking about the trade I called out on Twitter, on March 2nd!

I think most traders wouldn't even know where to find the opposite side of that trade, but I can tell you that there is a 3X  Leveraged 7-10 year Treasury Bull ETF ($TYD), which  is up 20% since I made that call! Another perfect trade, documented. 

That's what's called taking the contrarian view on the typical crap you see retweeted on twitter every day, and winning. 

Add to that the swing trades I've recently made in Natural Gas, and my short positions in Oil, and the materials sector - which I called out a couple weeks ago, and I'm sure I'm doing at least as well as the short sellers of financial stocks did over the past few weeks. 

Natural Gas 

So, not what? 

Well, today the ECB is being pressured to pause - pivot - on policy, and even if they don't.... the worse may already be priced in, for the time being at least. 

ECB Preview: A 50 bps rate step could have a EUR-negative effect – Commerzbank

OPEX is Friday, so I wouldn't be surprised to see most the Put protection that was put on over the past few days, expire worthless. 

This is a treacherous market to trade, unless you really know what you're doing. If you're still learning, I suggest you stay away from leverage all together, and reduce your exposure. 

Take Care, AA