Tuesday, January 31, 2023

Black Swans & Debt Time Bombs

Black Swans & Debt Time Bombs 

Firstly: India rolls over, after calling that market out last week. That's what I call, "perfect market timing".

So, is this the beginning of the global collapse? I don't think so. The IMF just raised it's global growth outlook, and the Fed is way behind the curve. 

Technically speaking, we're very early in a bearish cycle, if this even is one, and either way, I think we're years away from a total collapse.

We see energy still trading near all time highs, and that just doesn't point to contraction. 

I still believe we're setting up for a nasty correction, and the controllers are already pushing several bearish narratives. 

CNBC actually brought several guests on yesterday, so encourage folks to straight up, "short Tesla", after the magnificent rally we've seen over the past week.

January 26th, 2023 - $TSLA - bottom called perfectly, just one day after the lame stream media was reporting, "the worst trading day for Tesla". This is how it's done!   

I think Tesla could consolidate, after the big run it's had, but I think anyone who is looking to short Tesla, for no other reason thay they don't like Elon Musk, have a screw loose. 

Meanwhile Chevron, which missed earnings, is being trashed, just after last weeks CNBC pump job, and now, not a word from the talking heads! Don't say, I didn't warn you...!  


Speaking of Energy: It looks like the powers be used last weeks Flash Surge to take profits, and sell the energy space. 

A couple energy names I forgot to mention last week, were BP Amoco, and Marathon $MPC, but traded to new highs....  

$MPC - 



Gas Shortage?

Looks like we could see a refinery shortage already being priced in... 

Why Is Gas So Expensive Lately? entrepreneur.com 

But the manipulation of a hanf full of stocks is nothing, in comparison  to the way they've turned - on a dime - on China, complete with the return of the threat of war (story) , as China threatens the new Speaker Of The House, not to go to Taiwan. "New Boss; Same As The Old Boss"! 

How America Would Be Screwed if China Invades Taiwan

  thedailybeast



Senior US general warns of possible looming war with China globalvillagespace.com


China Warns Against US House Speaker's Plan To Visit Taiwan bangkokpost 

DailyMailOnline

Black Swans & Debt Bombs

Black Swan Fund Manager Sees ‘Tinderbox-Timebomb’ in Financial Markets bloomberg 


The ‘Black Swan’ fund manager just said that debt is creating the ‘greatest tinderbox-timebomb in financial history’ and could have consequences similar to the Great Depression fortune 

How Debt Limits Could Lead to Black Swan Events For Wall Street ibtimes.com

Of course all the above stories look like false narratives, but spreading disinformation, is what they do best! 

FOMC Announcement 

FOMC is tomorrow, and since the Money Printers are already trying to create a panic, I would expect The Fed to oblige, by coming out Hawkish.  

We could get the normal reaction to The Fed, as uncertainty is removed, and a little relief rally... especially in the banking sector. Higher interest rates are going to be good for the banks, at least initially, and the $BANK index continues to consolidate above the 40 month moving average.

Fixing a mistake I made last week: 

Big Tech

It was the $NDX which rallied to the 12k target, not the NASDAQ, and just so happens that's exactly where Big Tech is set to open this morning.   



Take Care, AA 



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Monday, January 30, 2023

Market Update 1/28/23 - Trade Secrets, and Top Secret Trades Revealed

 Here is it, almost the end of the month already, and I'm up early on a Saturday morning, still getting caught up on charting. 

This is what it takes if you want to win consistently: 

1. Hard Work. 2. Perseverance. 3. Tuning out the noise, and thinking outside the box.   

I could certainly add a few more things to the list, such as proper money management, which takes discipline, and nimbleness/ prowess, but let's focus on the first 3.... 

1. Hard Work: This not only means taking the time to learn every aspect of technical charting, but it means putting it into practice. You only get out of it what you put into it. To think that luck is going to carry you to the finish line, is a pipe dream.  

No doubt most traders are not going to spend their Saturday morning, updating charts, and I've already been at this all week. I have over 1000 chart views working at any given time - most of which, I keep close to my chest btw - and this helps me stay 1 step ahead of the game. If you want to win, you have to be willing to put in the hours.

 For me, this means getting up every morning at 4:00, to get a good read on the market, while most traders are waiting for the boob tube to tell them what to think. It also means putting in some extra hours, when necessary.  

And now that half my audience has left, let's move on to #2. 

2. Perseverance: 

Never Give Up Sure you're going to be early on many calls, but don't let that discourage you!

Charts not working? Then try a different technique. Check the candlestick analysis on a weekly chart. Think outside the box. How long did it take to find the bearish reversal in Natural Gas. It would've been easy to give up, when it still hadn't corrected in Nov. 

NatGas - breaks key support Nov. 28th 

Seek And Ye Shall Find... 

It's amazing what I found last week just updating my mining folder, for the first time in several months, and the same goes for China... I've spent literally years studying the China charts, and this takes perseverance. 

Speaking of China: How many times have you heard it mentioned that, "China has been trading sideways in a bear market, for the past 13 years"? Yeah, like never, because that story doesn't sell newspapers, and because the rats at Bloomberg still believe Asia is going to lead the global economy. 

China 

$SSEC Shanghai Stock Exchange ....trading in a range for the past 14 years, after a failed breakout attempt in 2015. 

1. One obvious thing about the above chart is that the machines are buying the 200 month moving average. 

2. The only difference between the Shanghai chart, and the Hang Seng... is that the false breakout in Hong Kong didn't occur until 2018, and the 200 month ma average actually broke, last year, and that - more than anything else - explains the panic selling we saw in early 2022. 

3. As home work: If you think you have a good grasp of Elliot theory, or any other charting technique - for that matter - spend an hour trying to figure out where China is going, and good luck, with that! 

I'm sure I'll be alerting to China again in the near future, so be sure to subscribe Newsletter! 

 Getting back to my Top 3 Trade Secrets 

  3. Tune out the noise, and think outside the box! This is fresh in my mind, after Friday's trade, where all Bloomberg could seem to focus on was the big earnings miss from $INTC Intel. Did that story help you catch a nice 3% rally in consumer discretionary? No, in fact, I'll bet it was never even mentioned! 

a. Turn off the boob tube, or do what I do, watch with the sound off. The financial fake news has become even worse, since they started substituting opinions from people on webcam, for fact, and pushing a - so called - woke political agenda, not to mention the lousy camera work, and unnecessary sound effects. They call the TV, an "idiot box", for a reason!  

b. Tune out social media, much of which is driven by highly emotional traders, and bots. Sure, I use it to kill time, and blow off steam, some times, but I disregard 90% of what I see... 

c. Run a stock screener, and watch different sectors, and event FX for an alternative trade 

 Top Secret Trades Revealed

I don't usually reveal my trades, but I did reveal a couple good ones... on Friday. 

Consumer Discretionary 

The Russell 2000 - 


Natural Gas  - 

After remaining bearish on Natural Gas, and trying warn retail investors, that they were playing with fire - going into the end of 2022 - I finally decided to do some bottom picking.  


$DICKS - 

I don't own this one, but it's a good chart, and a good example of just how priced out, a recession is.   


And last but not least; another engineered short squeeze, in shares of American Express. 

 $AXP - see where the bid was raised, just ahead of weekly OPEX. Typical for the type of manipulation I see in the market, on a regular bases. This is the new normal. 



Of course. we are likely going to see a recession, and the fed has all but guaranteed it.  


Next time you hear the fake news talk about, "a soft landing", tune that out. 

Take Care, AA 




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Friday, January 27, 2023

Market Update 1/27/2023 - Energy, Oil, Dow, NASDAQ, $NYSE Flash Surge

 Archived 1276 charts this morning, and that only includes charts that go back to April, 2022.

Looking at the market

Can you believe how the market has run in 2023? 

Of course the Lame Stream Media chalks this up to a "soft landing", being priced in, but that's the same thing they were saying, just before the crash of  '08. 

The truth is, money gets put to work at the beginning of every year, regardless of the numbers, or the fed, or even the threat of WWIII. 

Sure, the powers that be, tried to shake the weak hands, when they returned from holiday, but that was only in order to buy the dip. 

NASDAQ (futures) - driven to 12k

$INDU (futures) driven back to 34k 

Even number targets are a PsyOp

$DAX was recently driven back to 15k. Only 1000 points off the 2022 high. 

And all this interest in Emerging markets, just because Chine is removing Covid restrictions? 

Since when has the Chinese consumer driven any economic boom? 

This marks a new recent low in foreign investor intelligence, I'm afraid. 

Foreign Investors Flooding Back into China etftrends.com


Speaking of Stupid Foreign Investors  

CNBC Immediately takes the other side, of the warning I put out on India, yesterday! Think they aren't following me? India a "bright spot" they now claim, and then they try to get you to subscribe... laughable!  

Did you see what happened in India overnight? 

Getting back to US markets 


After all the hand wringing we witnessed in 2022, the DOW is only 3000 points away from making new all time highs! 

Speaking of new highs: 

I'm watching several stocks - including $XOM, and I think since ITEL missed earnings to badly, they dumb money will continue to rush into Energy names.  Could be a good day trade, and could even extend into next week. 

I was unsure where the next sector rotation might take place, but it seems like money is coming out of the mining, and materials sector, and it's going back into Energy Stocks. 

I've mentioned Exxon before, because it's one of the key heavily weighted names that's consistently used to drive the broader indices, and especially the $SPX. 

Pivot to The $NYSE Flash Surge 

Exxon was one of the names that was effected by the recent flash surge, or crash - whatever you want to call it. I'm calling it a "Flash Surge". 

I find it hilarious that the corrupt fake financial news use terms like "snafu", or "glitch" to describe a major system failure, at the New York Stock Exchange, to try minimize it, and I speak in psychological terms, because it is a bit of a psy-op.  

  

Psychological operations, or PSYOP, are intended to “convey selected information and indicators to foreign audiences to influence their emotions, motives, objective reasoning, and ultimately the behavior of foreign governments, organizations, groups, and individuals. fas.org 

Getting back to Exxon and the like: 

1. Looks like these energy names are in a head-fake rally, so I certainly wouldn't be chasing energy here. 

2. I raised the target on Exxon to $120 in my twitter feed. 

3. I'm not going to reveal my $XOM charts - I have several working - but I can tell you it could run as high as $123, or even higher, if it continues to hold up into February.  

Reminder: If you're going to trade energy, you better be keeping a close eye on oil. 

Oil - has run, as I predicted it would, but it's kind of pivotable here, meaning it could go either way. 

 Need my help trading Oil? 

I almost tweeted a free #oil chart, but no... That's going to cost you $100. PM me...

— Veteran Market Timer (@3Xtraders) January 26, 2023

Other Energy names to watch 

$VLO breaking out to new all time highs 

$PSX "" Chart below






And last but not least Chevron $CVX 


Chevron Stock Falls as Earnings Disappoint barrons



No wonder they felt the need to do a buyback! This is what companies do, when they run out of future growth opportunities. It should be illegal to juice your own stock. 

I'm out of time. 

Watch for the New Letter - in your mailbox - this weekend, 

AA 




sss 

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Thursday, January 26, 2023

Market Update 1/26/2023 - The Waiting Game

I wanted to delve deeper into the $NYSE flash surge/ crash, because there's finally some news being reported on the situation, but the whole situation is quite unbelievable. 

Apparently an employee at the NYSE forgot to turn off the lights, when he left work, at the end of the day, and that caused a major system failure! You can't make this shit up! 

I'm not sure which news room - if any - to trust, but some information is leaking out 

NYSE Says Short-Selling Restrictions Responsible for Glitch barrons


Of course Bloomberg seems more interested in reporting on Tesla's problems, than a major system failure at the NYSE. 
I'll have more to report on the situation, after further investigation, although we never got the whole story; after the so called "flash crash", of 2010, and God knows the market controllers, have a lot to hide....    

Market Update Thursday 1/26/2023 The Waiting Game 

The market continues to hold up - trading in a seemingly endless range. Some sectors remain trapped at the top of a range, while others remain trapped at the bottom of the range. Still others continue to make  higher recent highs. 

Gold Miners - for instance, rallied to another recent high, yesterday. This is where the scared money is hiding. They've moved from Energy, to Gold miners.

I alerted to this trade, in my Twitter, yesterday morning, and I have a sell target, if you need one! PM me... 


Getting back to the broader market 

The broader market has gone from trading in a bearish channel - or triangle - to trading into a sideways range, which is a difficult thing to predict, even for someone with my experience. 

Canada - 

for example - has been trading in a generally sideways range for the past 6 months!




Sure it's made a new recent high, but it's not like you can find a bullish pattern on the chart, and if you're still trading the broader US market, you're dealing with the same thing.

 What's funny, is as soon as the Dow starts trading back above the 200 day, the bulls start asking, "does this mean this rally is poised to continue"?  

This is what happens when markets hold up.... people become overly complacent. Just look at what happened, just ahead of the so called "covid crash", the market continued to tread water for an entire year, and everyone got complacent as a "breakout to new highs", was being reported. 

Reminder 2019 - 2020

$INDU - market holds up - in a false breakout - for 14 weeks, just ahead of the covid crash. 


Did they release the Covid virus, from a lab in China, in order to have an excuse to bailout the financial system, one more time? I can't say for sure, but it seems to me that the manufactured crisis was used for that very purpose, and all that unnecessary money printing caused commodities to inflate. Create the problem, create the solution, rinse and repeat. 

How Long Can You Wait For A Market TO Roll Over?  

14 weeks sounds like a long time to wait, but today we see the Indian market hold up for over a year!

$NIFTY - monthly candlestick chart  


The longer the period of consolidation... the worse the correction is going to be, and this chart has been added to the Public Charts Area. 

Waiting for the next black swan 

It's getting to the point, where I think I need to start relying on longer term charts, to time my trades, and I've already moved towards this approach somewhat. 

For Example: I finished taking profits - in tech - a couple weeks ago, and I'm just sitting on my hands and getting caught up on my charting, rather than going short - for example - $SOX. Now you see $SOX continue to hold up, with pretty-much everything else.  

The $VIX

Like I said in my twitter yesterday, the bears can't seem to gain any traction, as long as the $VIX is going to be hammered back below the magic 20 level, and that's exactly why the manipulators do it. 

Remember when I mocked the market bears for thinking that a $VIX below 20 was a bearish signal? 

What About Energy? 

Remember when I predicted that the Energy sector would continue to hold up, into the end of the year, and beyond, and that's exactly what we're seeing.... 

More waiting

Related Story 



What about China? 

China has rallied into the Chinese New Year, and you see that continue to tread water.  

$KWEB - Chinese Internet - trades in a range - more waiting I'm afraid 

 



As reactionary as Investors are nowadays, I would expect markets to move faster, but it seems like, more and more, they only move in one direction - sideways 

Take Care, AA 

 

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Wednesday, January 25, 2023

Market Rally Still Looks Tired To Me

 This Market Rally looked tired last week, and it still looks tired. 

See Last Wednesdays Update: 

Market Update - Hump-day - Wednesday 1/18/23 - This Rally Looks Tired

We're still seeing some speculative plays squeezing out some short sellers, as was the case in yesterday's top gainers... $PYR, $GROM, $AXLA, and several others. 

$GNS for example - obviously an engineered short squeeze. 


Related Story from CNBC 

Today's Biggest Pre-Market Stock Movers: 10 Top Gainers and Losers on Tuesday CNBC

Those are huge profits for the Hedge Funds who are behind these kinds of moves! 

Speaking of Market Manipulation 

I suspect that was the real cause of yesterday's so called "System Issue", which caused trading anomalies at the NYSE. 

Related Story - Yahoo Finance 

NYSE Investigates Technical Issue That Caused Wild Market Open


Funny, I watch a lot of financial news, but I was totally in the dark on the situation, until I figured it out on my own, several hours later!

 I didn't notice anything amiss when I loaded Think or Swim, in the morning, but by later in the day I could sense that something just wasn't quite right, and decided to start checking on some heavily weighted names in the $SPX.

 What I found were some wild swings, and tests of the 50 day moving averages, followed, by panic selling.

 I suspect algorithmic trading programs - which are already being primed to take the market down, were prematurely triggered. 

Kudos to Fast Money's Guy Adami, who also suspects that something "nefarious" is going on! 

The market isn't acting right, and anyone who's fool enough to remain involved, deserves whatever may come, next.... 

Watch Microsoft - it was up 5% in after hours trading, but this morning it looks like it wants to lead the way lower.

As if things were not crazy enough the Doomsday Clock as been moves up, as Germany gives the go ahead, to supply Ukraine with Tanks. 

 Related from Barrons: 

Doomsday Clock 



 




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Tuesday, January 24, 2023

Has Gold Really Outperformed Bitcoin? Fact Checking: Jim Cramer

 Crypto  vs Gold 

On The 1/23/23 edition of Mad Money, Jim Cramer make the argument that Gold has outperformed Bitcoin, and he claims that Gold has led the rally, as tech has sold off, paraphrasing. 

Related Story linked CNBC: 

Charts suggest investors should ignore ‘crypto cheerleaders’ and stick with gold, Jim Cramer says

Watch the entire 10 min Video For Yourself 


Now Let's Do and Honest Comparison Between Gold and Bitcoin: 


1. Bitcoin has traded from 15,700, all the way back to 23k., over the past few months. That's a 50%
 gain!  



2. Gold has traded from around the $1600 level (1618.30), all the way back to 1939.00, for a gain of 20%.

Although Bitcoin does tend to sell-off with Tech stocks, Gold has in no way outperformed Bitcoin 

FACT CHECKED AND PROVEN TOTALLY FALSE!  

As I've said before, I believe, former Goldman Sachs Employee, Jim Cramer does the bidding of the Deep State, and the Money Printers, but I'll leave it up to you, to decide, what Cramer's motivation is, for painting a false narrative. 

   
Take Care, 
AA 


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Market Update 1/24/23 - Technical Tuesday

Technology Stocks continue to lead

 Tech continued to lead on Monday, despite CNBC Fast Money's bear story, so what do they do? They flip flop, and turn bullish on tech. I DVR'd the show, so I could listen while I made dinner, last night, and I could hardly believe my ears...! 

Funny, the longer stocks rally, the more people get bullish, or at least the talking heads do. 

Volume 

We finally got some decent volume during yesterday's session, now that the powers that be have returned from Davos, but I also attribute the higher volume to short covering.  

I only mention the volume, because I heard it reported on Bloomberg... but of course they try to attribute this to investor (bullish) conviction. They don't even take into account, the pent up energy... post Davos, or the fact that Monday's are prime time for short squeezes. 

Now, some of you, are probably thinking, "short covering rallies are on low volume", but when buyers come in, and chase the shorts out, you end up with twice as many buyers. BOOM!   

Also, we're only talking about 1 day, and 1 day, does not a trend make. The volume on Wayfair was huge, so should I believe that investors have conviction on that trade?   

In case you missed it! 

I gave away a juicy sell target - on $SOX - yesterday 

$SOX - this is all you get for free, a one way ticket, on a 15 min. chart. 

Related Story (intel investors): 

Oct, 27, 2021 - Intel Targets a 30x Total AI Performance Gain by 2022
As you can see, all the hype around chip makers cashing in on AI is nothing new  

Another thing that's not new, is that Intel, and NVIDIA are market leaders, so of course investors get excited when they see one or the other, leading.... 

 INTEL: 1. It was bought at the 50 day moving average on Short squeeze Friday. 2. It tested the Jan high yesterday. 3. It's been trading in the same range for the past 5 months. 

$NVDA (NVIDIA)  - 1. Technical breakout above the neckline, on a bullish inverse H&S Pattern. 2. Golden Cross taking place. 3. Adding this chart to the Public Charts area, for your amusement.   

Crypto  vs Gold 

 I watched Jim Cramer make this ridiculous argument yesterday, and he points to the fact that Gold has led the rally, as tech has sold off, paraphrasing. 

Look: 

1. Bitcoin has traded from 15,700, all the way back to 23k., over the past few months. That's a 50%
 gain!  



2. Gold has traded from around the $1600 level (1618.30), all the way back to 1939.00, for a gain of 20%.



FACT CHECKED AND PROVEN TOTALLY FALSE!  

As I've said before, I believe Cramer is working for the Deep State, and the Money Printers, but
I'll leave it up to you, to decide, what Cramer's motivation for painting a false narrative is  

I gotta run, and add some new charts to the public charts area... 
   
Take Care, 
AA 






 ssss

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Monday, January 23, 2023

Market Update Monday, 1/23/23 - Taking a look at Global Equities and the $GDOW

 Good Monday morning, Traders!  

If you caught this weeks news letter - sent out on Saturday - then you know what to watch over the next couple weeks. If you aren't receiving the News Letter - in your in box - then be sure to check your spam folder. 

One important thing I left out of this weeks News Letter, is the fact that we saw Friday's rally, take shape, when I noticed that financials - and several other sectors - had been jacked back above the 50 day moving average, as seen below. 

$IYF (Financials) Friday's opening bid raised above the 50 day moving average - triggered program buying. 

 

This morning, I'm seeing market futures swing from red to green, with Bloomberg News going out of their way to show the NASDAQ 100 (futures), still in the red. They're also focused on Apple (down), which tells me the controllers, who are working behind the scenes, are still pushing the bearish tech (sector) narrative. 

Look: Big Tech is not the only sector, which needs to correct 

Furthermore: There are sectors contained in the NASDAQ with are way overdue for a sustainable rally.

Airline stocks - now trading back above the 200 day moving average. 

$XAL (airlines) trading back above the 200 day. I'm not advocating a trade here, just using this chart as an example, of how bifurcated the market is. 

Related Story: Here’s Why Airline Stocks Are Soaring Right Now nasdaq.com

Seems the market is quite illiquid, if only the most thinly traded markets are the ones that are leading. 

Energy led a stealth rally in 2022, and Airlines, Emerging markets (including China), and miners are going to lead in 2023? 

Did you know that Emerging markets only make up 13% of global equity market capitalization? Source MSCI  

I was hoping we weren't going to be left playing wack-a-mole, again this year, but that's exactly how things are turning out, so far...  

Looking at a possible crash 

I spent some extra time charting on Friday and what I found is that the rest of World (ROW) has rallied to a key Fibonacci retracement. 


$GDOW - looks like the ROW is ready to take the next leg down, and the trolls are a contrarian indicator. 

Think I'll add this chart to the public charts area this morning, and continue to sound the warning. 

I may reveal another sector I see on the brink of collapse in coming days/ weeks, so be sure to subscribe to the News Letter! 


Take Care, 

AA  





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Friday, January 20, 2023

Market Update Friday Jan. OPEX

 As I always say: Markets are rigged, according to Options Expiration Dates, and even though I called the reversal that we saw on Wed., I wasn't even factoring in a perfectly timed re-balancing, just ahead of Jan. OPEX, but in hindsight, I think a re-balancing - ahead of Jan. OPEX - is exactly what we've seen over the past couple days. 

Of course, this re-balencing is to ensure that the majority of Options expire worthless, as the bulls were betting on the 4000 target on the $SPX, and this is what they get, for not paying insurance on those bets, in the form of Put options. Just goes to show, you can fool some of the people some of the time - by hammering the $VIX every day - but the house always wins. 

This morning we see Market Futures pinned, just below the 50 day moving average, and I suspect the market is going to remain pinned in a tight range, just so that the PUT Options, which where put on just yesterday, also expire worthless! This is what I call, typical, "Wall Street fuckery".

 Question from yesterday's update: "Is this a bearish reversal"?

 That appears to be the case, after yesterday's confirmation, and since I called this reversal (precisely), I'm not about to get wishy-washy, and start back-peddling, yet these things take a little time to be confirmed, and strange things can happen around OPEX. I could still be wrong.... we could even see a snap-back retest the highs. That's right I have a higher target, up my sleeve, and an alternative plan in place, just in case... 

Speaking of getting it wrong

Fast Money's Carter Worth's call for a correction to the 3300 level, followed by his call for a smaller pullback, a few weeks ago, can only be described as an "Epic Fail". Before that, he predicted that energy would lead the bull market, and then he got wishy-washy, and turned tail and ran.... 

Adding Carter Worth to the Wall of Shame 





Is it possible Carter Braxton Worth could still be right on his call for a correction to the 3300 level? No. I already thoroughly debunked his chart, in an earlier blog, and furthermore, if the 3300 level is taken out, then we're probably going lower, much lower. Perhaps he's looking at the 2020 high, as support but he's pointing to a channel that doesn't exist!  

Picking up from where I left off yesterday: 

Re: CNBC Fast Money 

Let's Take a Closer Look at CNBC Fast Money's other hero, Christopher Verrone 

I don't know how this guy manages to get on CNBC, and Bloomberg, on consecutive days, but somehow he does it! He also remains consistent, and on point. 

His point, that tech is not going to lead a new bull market is well received, but I find the idea that copper and gold, and miners, including such names as $BHP, $RIO, Fremont, and Glencore, and the like, are leading the next (stealth) bull market, utterly preposterous. He also claims that these names are breaking out of a range, which is a downright lie. Sure BHP continues to test the highs, but where is your sector chart?! 

Look, I know you have CNBC pro subscriptions to sell, but let's at least have some integrity!  

Here's my problem with Verrone. and most other TV technical analysts. They draw very vague charts - which aren't even worth re-creating - and point to some broad range, that isn't even relevant. 

If you watched Verrone on CNBC this week, comparing the range on the $SPX to miners, then you know what I'm talking about.

One thing I like about Verrone, is that he thinks outside the box, and so far he's been right on the rally in metals, but like I reiterated on Twitter yesterday, it's not, "breaking out of a range", yet...     


Market Prediction based on the EW Count  

I found this on Trading View, and the EW Count on the chart below, roughly matches my short term view, which I find pretty impressive! This guy may not be much to look at, and neither is his website, but he knows how to count Elliott Waves! 

Maikisch Trading View

As far as for me starting a membership site? I may move the blog, to a new platform, just in order to get away from the blogger platform, and increase my SEO (Search Engine Optimization), but for now, I'm happy with continuing to provide the Free Weekly News Letter, and blogging, for my own enjoyment. If that turns into something more, than so be it.  

Take Care, AA 

P.S. If you watch the Fast Money show, even just for laughs, then you may know they recently pumped ULTA - down 2.39% yesterday.  




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Thursday, January 19, 2023

Market Update 1/19/12 - Bearish Market Reversal?

 Well, we saw quite a little reversal confirmed yesterday, around the time that it was disclosed that, fully vaccinated, and boosted, Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell, has contracted Covid.  

 

What amazed me is how quickly, CNBC, and Bloomberg, buried the story  


Meanwhile the lame stream media fails to report on excess deaths...

 Related Story: 

BBC criticized for letting cardiologist ‘hijack’ interview with false Covid jab claim theguardian.com


Looks like another attempted cover-up to me, otherwise why would they try to sensor open debate? If there is no excess death rate, or there is a plausible explanation... then why not report on it? 

At least I no longer need to worry about being kicked off Twitter for asking common sense questions. 
Is this really happening, and we're not being told? It's hard to know what to believe anymore! 

Excess deaths are soaring as health-care systems wobble www.economist.com



Getting back to the market

I think I know who's behind the selling 

The usual suspects 


Caught this guy on CNBC fast money last night

On further inspection I found the CNBC boiler room crew working Twitter boards

I have a lot more to say about the bull case for metals, and miners, and the fast money crew using the NBC/CNBC network to pump their own positions, but gotta save this for another time. 

All I can tell you is to stay away from the metal trades, especially copper 

Today's Trade 

Technically speaking, I'm going to be watching the 50 day moving average on the $SPX, and I still think the market is poised to hold up into OPEX, and possibly even into the FOMC meeting, around the end of the month. Of course, if the 50 day ma, is taken out at the open, that's going to trigger more selling. 

Why am I not expecting markets to plummet right here 

One Word; "Superstition". Wall Street believes if January ends strong then that sets the tone for the entire year. 

My Outlook is somewhat bearish short term, as I explained in yesterday's update, but I'm actually pretty bullish going into the 1st half of the year, and possibly longer. 

I think the fed is going to wimp out, and take a break, and Wall Street is going to see that as a green light... 

2022 was a lousy year, and that sets up for a rebound in 2023

Something New

Something I didn't notice until just ahead of yesterday's opening bell - and I'm already struggling to see how I'm going to be able to stay on my game with the distraction of running a membership website (more on this at the end of this update) - I was thumbing through some charts ahead of yesterday's open, and found that the $NYSE has run to new recent highs, while the $SPX continues to lag. 

$NYSE - looks like a bearish reversal at this point, but I was kind of taken aback by this breakout.  


That's a head scratcher 

Final point

As I mentioned earlier, I only found that the $NYSE was breaking out, because I had a little extra time one my hands, and I was thumbing through some charts, and that's part of what keeps me on my game, because I don't remain focused on any one thing. I'm afraid that if I start a membership website, I'm going to end up spreading myself too thin, and my trading is going to suffer.

I suppose it will all work itself out in the end, but I'm thinking I'm going to need help running a website, or maybe I'm better off joining a hedge fund. Open to any suggestions... 


Take Care, AA  



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Wednesday, January 18, 2023

Market Update - Hump-day - Wednesday 1/18/23 - This Rally Looks Tired


The market is slow! How slow is it? Even Bloomberg mentioned that the market was slow yesterday. Of course they gave no explanation for this anomaly, but I think the low volume can be at least partially attributable to the fact that much of the criminal cartel who continually rig markets, are in Davos. 

Speaking of Davos! 

Dwindling snow at Davos tells the world’s elite all they need to know

seatletimes.com

Think the lack of snow, on the slopes of Davos wasn't engineered?

Davos 2023:U.S. envoy Kerry says 'time is running out', money needed to tackle climate change reuters

Enough small talk about the weather 

This low volume Rally is looking pretty tired 

The market has actually been chugging higher on very low volume, since the beginning of the year.  

As much as CNBC tries to sell the story, that this is the longest winning streak on the NASDAQ since, whenever it was - who cares... - I took profits on my remaining longs yesterday, and believe me, when I tell you, "the profits were nothing to write home about"! 

Here's a good example of what this rally looked like on the $TQQQ which I heard pumped by one of the networks yesterday. Actually they were referring to both the $TQQQ, and the $SQQQ... which have apparently seen pretty good volume - as of late - although as you can see, the volume is declining, and that's not good! 

$TQQQ (2X NASDAQ Bull) - Trend is a obvious, as yesterday's sell target, at the top of the range 
 

Normally the leveraged bull charts, don't work so well, but there's nothing normal about this market, and that's a good example of a down-turned triangle pattern, that's still working.  

Reviewing yesterday's trade, in more detail. Was that a reversal? 

The $VIX - Remember I said, we were watching the 20 level, and where did it open? Right at 20! 
That immediately told me that it's as rigged, as ever.

I also told folks to watch the 4000 level on the $SPX, and it could be seen hovering around that level, for most of the trading day. Even this morning the bulltards think this is some kind of breakout. 

I think the market can definitely hold up in this range, going into OPEX, and even the next FOMC meeting, but then I'm expecting a bigger pullback than the one we saw, back in Dec.

I'd tell you more, but that's privileged information, and I'm keeping the best charts close to my chest. 

As I mentioned yesterday, I've been kicking around the idea of starting a membership site, and I even took some time shopping platforms this morning. I need a site that's easy to drag and drop, charts, in, and out of, and has an easily accessible members (only) page. I also need membership software that I can rely on, unlike the last time I did this. 

 If you have any suggestions... let me know in the comments. 

Good Luck, 
AA 

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Tuesday, January 17, 2023

The Global Elites Meet in Davos

 It's that time again; when the Global Elites, and the money printers, meet in Davos.   

WHAT IS ON THE AGENDA?

This year’s theme, ‘Cooperation in a Fragmented World,’ is a nod to the tectonic shift in global markets and political relationships that has occurred since the pandemic.

The annual event was once regarded as a cheerleader for globalization. Now, the global elite will meet against a backdrop of protectionism, a war that has strained political alliances and deepening ideological divides.

Rising interest rates and a cost of living crisis also threaten to divert attention to matters back home for some.

Climate change topped the WEF‘s survey of global risk and energy company executives will mix with climate activists and environment ministers at the forum. source: 

Other themes will include the cost of living, a tight labour market, natural disasters and extreme weather events, how to prevent a global recession in 2023, the resurgence of COVID infections in many countries, an energy crunch and the looming first anniversary of Russia’s war in Ukraine. euronews.com

I suspect the Globalist will also be worshiping false gods, and practicing Animal sacrifice, but that's all just conspiracy.   

Bohemian Grove

Social Cohesion & the Bohemian Grove

The Power Elite at Summer Camp whorulesamerica.edu


Also in the News 

Bloomberg finally reported yesterday, that China has been driving the Eurozone trade... something I've been reporting on for several weeks, and went into great detail on, just last Wed. See: 

Fastest Rally, and Biggest Percentage Gain, In History


Still Getting Caught Up 

I took a little road trip last week, and still trying to get caught up...  I haven't even had time to check the $VIX, or the $SPX, but looking at the $VIX... it was obviously slammed below 20, ahead of this shortened trading week, ahead of Jan. OPEX, so that's the number to watch.  The 4000 level on the $SPX is obviously a psychological target, and probably a number that could be sold, ahead of OPEX Friday.  

Possibly Starting a Membership Site  

It's become so easy for me to time the broader market, I'm thinking about abandoning this lousy blog, in order to revive the membership website. I used to have a membership site, but I was still pretty green, and the membership software turned out to be faulty, and the rest is history.   

If I do revive the pay site: 

1. Of course, I'm going to continue to trade individual sectors, and commodities, but I could create a multi-tiered membership, for folks, who would like to do the same.  

2. In the past I've found that I end up spreading myself too thin, trying to please everyone, but I'll just have to set some boundaries. 

3. I'll try to keep membership costs low. 

Trading rooms cost between $99 - $299, but I think it's better to start out slow, and charge less. 

I figure I better try the membership thing again, or I may end up regretting NOT doing it! 

Take Care, AA 

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Wednesday, January 11, 2023

Fastest Rally, and Biggest Percentage Gain, In History

 I was watching the Bloomberg this morning, and guess who they just happened to have on? None other than Christopher Verrone, who I covered in yesterday's blog.  

Of course he's still pumping Gold, and Gold Miners, and industrial names, and even Japan, as if there's been some kind of pivot there...? 

So, I decided I better check out the charts to make sure I'm not missing anything, and what I found is not surprising to me, at all.  

$GLEN (Glencore) manipulated (rigged) higher, earlier in the week. 




No thanks! 

So then, I decided to look at Japan, and China, and emerging markets, because that's what is leading the rally. What Rally, you may ask? 

The Fastest Rally, and Biggest Percentage Gain, In History 

$CZH China 


Looks like a bad case of, "too far, too fast", and too hot to touch, but what's driving this?

I believe these are European Hedge Funds, using foreign money. Possibly even money that fled Russia, and Saudi Arabia.... who else would be hell bent on driving emerging markets higher? Also, we see the $DAX continue to breakout, along with the rest of the Eurozone.

Of course the crash in Natural Gas prices also has something to do with that, and that was probably my best prediction of 2022, by the way! 

$EZU  (Eurozone) Technically it looks like it's gone parabolic, but look more closely, and you'll find it's rallied to a key Fibonacci target. 


I'm almost out of time, and I've barely scratched the surface, but I also want to show you how they (the manipulators) are using leveraged ETF charts to help drive these rallies. 

Case in Point 

$EDC (3X Emerging Markets) - 1. First see where they forced a breakout (above the previous high) around the Thanksgiving holiday. 2. See where they actually raised the bid on this fund, above the 200 day moving average target. 


I have to wonder what is going to be the catalyst to unwind this trade, and where the money is going to be put to work next, but with the recent momentum, I think it could take weeks to see much of a reversal. Obviously this is being run up into another rigged Options Expiration, Jan. 20th, 2023, on another shortened trading week.   

Take Care, AA 


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