Saturday, September 28, 2019

Market Update - Friday's Downside Surprise, Another "Bear Trap?" - Week Ending 9/28/2019


 Friday's Downside Surprise wasn't that big of a surprise, with the S&P closing down only half a percent. DOW only closed down .25%. It was a nothing burger, with the $SPX closing above the 50 day moving average.

Another reason  Friday's Downside Surprise wasn't that big of a surprise is that I spotted this alternate pattern (the parallel channel in Purple), and the wave "B" target on Thursday, and I alerted to that, going into Thursday's close, with the annotation "Set The Bear Trap?". Looks like I was a day late and a dollar short on that call, but you can see where it rallied off the lower end of the range. I'm not sure this is a wave B, or just a retest of the 50 day ma, at support. As I've said before Elliott Wave Theory doesn't work so well on a 1 min chart. There's no magic bullet.
   


What was a surprise, was to see the market sell-off on a Friday, with the $VIX conveniently driven just above the 17.50 level. I kept watching for selling to accelerate, which it never did, so I never did put a down-arrow on it. It's just not smart to sell on a Friday, unless it's on short capitulation. 


The lack of selling momentum

Looking at the 1 min chart above: Compare the downside momentum of the previous decline (on the 24th), to Fridays sell-off.  Even after the $VIX broke out, we didn't see any panic-selling. In fact, I believe the market closed higher than where it was when the $VIX briefly popped above resistance.  "The selling is a little too controlled", as I stated in one of last weeks update. 

Reminds me of when they repeatedly drove the $VIX just above 20 - back in late August - before finally squeezing the short sellers into Labor Day. $VIX 20+ is a universally recognized bearish signal, for many traders, but I trust trends, and patterns, more than arbitrary numbers.

There's a lot more to reading the $VIX than just selling a breakout target, although I'm sure some weak hands got shaken out on Friday, and that's the whole point....  and before the end of the day, the $VIX had closed back down below my red line, signalling the "all-clear".


$SPX - 60 min chart. Support (circled) holds, trend remains up. $VIX remains contained. 






Looking at Monday's trade: 


Bullish:

It all comes down to the $VIX, and as I pointed out last week; in the past 10 years, we've "NEVER seen the $VIX close at the highs for the month". 

1. If the $VIX were to continue to breakout, then we could see selling accelerate to the down-side, buy that seems highly unlikely. Low $VIX = #NoFear

2. If we see a retest of the lower channel (in purple) on the above chart, on a lower $VIX, that's bullish.  A retest of the lows on a lower $VIX is always bullish.



Oil:

I told you we were going to watch Oil consolidate, for a week or 3, so let's get to it.

$USO - We saw oil traders shaken out below the 50 day ma average on Friday. Coincidence? No.
We also saw what looks like another "gap fill". I didn't annotate it, but if you look closely, you'll see it. The $OVX also ended down, which is also bullish.  Looks like it's time to start pulling the trigger, and I'll be adding this chart to the Public Charts area


 $Silver - seeing acceleration to the downside, and that confirms a powerful wave 3 (or C)

Longer term outlook:


I've gone back and forth a few times on the longer term pattern. I went from bullish to bearish, and now leaning towards bullish again, because all this market seems to do is hold up on a manipulated $VIX.  All it would take to drive the Dow to all time highs, is for money to come out of the safe places, like global utilities, consumer staples, precious metals,  the bond market, and even Bitcoin, and we're already seeing some of that.



$DJIA - The DOW held support at the 26,800 level, and I believe Wall Street isn't worried about anything, except squeezing the short sellers, into the next Options Expiration, and the Thanksgiving holiday, and the next psychological target - 28K - still lines up perfectly on this chart. 


 Just as the $VIX is rigged, so was the breakout in early Sept and you can see exactly why... looking at the next DOW chart. Now it consolidates in a range.

BUT just because I can find a bullish pattern, don't think I'm bullish on a rigged market!

There are red flags which can't be ignored!

$WLSH  - Remains over-bought (above my blue line), and most recently saw the highest weekly selling volume in 20 years, and now we see the real market trading at a lower high.



 I can remain bullish - short term, and intermediate term, and follow the trend, and play along for a little while longer, as long as the trend remains intact, but the collapse is coming. Maybe not until after Brexit, or even next year, but you can only build a house of cards so high. 

$SPX - rallies above 2954 support - the May high. We could be off to the races right here.  

Talking News & Politics

The real mobsters aren't in the White House, they run Wall Street, and the bought and paid for politicians, who manage the DC sewer - "swamp" is too nice a term.... 

Remember me saying, "I can't wait to see what bs story the (corporate owned) financial fake news uses to scare investors this time"? Well, now you're seeing it, and Trump collusion 2.0 was perfectly timed, in order to draw attention away from his good work, at the UN.

This whole thing was coordinated months ago, before they changed the rules on whistle blowers, and they were just waiting for the right time to drop this bogus, "Impeachment inquiry". See: Intelligence community changed whistleblower rules to include hearsay shortly before complaint was filed - Business & Politics Sept. 28, 2019

It's hilarious to see Crooked Hillary pointing here finger at Trump. "The lady doth protest too much, methinks"! At least Obama is smart enough to keep his mouth shut, especially when it comes to supporting China-Joe Biden. See: The troubling reason why Biden is so soft on China - New York Post, May 11th, 2019  

Trump collusion 2.0 is also a good distraction from what the international banksters - JPMorgan Chase & Co., Citigroup, Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley - all the usual suspects -  were doing at the Ritz-Carlton in Beijing, on Friday, working to undermine the American people. These are the real traitors!  See: Trade War Hasn’t Stopped Wall Street’s $9 Billion China Rush. Bloomberg

Our country has become so corrupt there is no draining the swamp. It's just going to have to implode under it's own weight, and I think we won't have to wait much longer. 

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

I spent several hours on a Saturday, creating this blog, and another 2 hours -finishing it up - this morning (Monday). It's extensive, and probably a little confusing for most traders, but this market is a hard thing to wrap your head around.

I'm still in the middle of several other projects, so I have to analyze markets when I have the time.

I'll be charting the action in real time this morning, but my schedule is subject to change. 
 Take Care, 


  




Friday, September 27, 2019

Market Update 9/27/2019 - Can The Trend In Gold Continue?

Can The Trend In Gold Continue?


I've noticed I've been getting a lot of searches for "3XTraders outlook on gold", so I though it would be good to update Gold! I also get a lot of hits on my "how to cut a mango", video, on YouTube, and based on the number of views, cutting up fruit is way more popular, than market timing.  

$GOLD - Looking at the long term trend on Gold, it's been in a bear market for 7 years, and as they say, "the trend is your friend. Trends tend to continue, and I believe the gold market is still in a corrective pattern, after the massive rally which ended in 2011. ! It's been holding up at resistance for a month, as the smart money takes profits, and I suppose it could hold up above the 1358 level, into the end of the year. You can find this chart along with all my other free Pubic Charts, at this link


I'm not a gold bug, but I understand the inherent value of gold. Fiat money eventually always does go to zero, but Gold never will. It's good to own some gold, and or Silver. coins, just in case... but I can't see buying gold at these levels. Commodities tend to return to the mean, and - historically -  for gold that's more like the $300 range...

I also believe, "every asset class loses value in a deflationary cycle".

I think a lot of the recent panic buying in Oil has to do with the believe that JP Morgan's manipulation of the metals market, over the past 8 years - is the reason why metals haven't performed up to the gold bugs expectations.

This really is what the catalyst is/was, as laid out in the video below.

 

Looking at the broader market 


Yesterday's trade on the $SPX  was choppy, and to be honest, if I hadn't been charting the close I would have had a hard time staying bullish! If you were watching me chart the close in real time, you saw me redraw my trend line, and go from bearish, to bullish, in the final minutes. Not easy!  Especially when the 5 minute DOW chart remains in a bearish pattern.

There's a lot that goes into my expert analysis, and I've spent years perfecting my technique, but unless you have the time to chart several things at once, in real time, it's impossible to be consistent. I know a lot of folks want future predictions, but you need to trade the market you see, and what we've seen over the past week is the market continues to hold up, into the end of  this window dressing quarter, on the last Friday of the month. I can't even tell you how long this continues, but the $VIX remains below 17.50, and as long as that continues, the market is going to continue to hold up.

Yesterday morning, we got a pullback from resistance, but no fear. I thought we might see panic, going into the close, but no fear. 

$SPX 1 min chart: This looks pretty much like the 5 min chart in my public charts area, but I've added some annotation, so show you where we've been over the past week, and where yesterday's pullback ended - at the top of the previous channel in black, and the current trend - in purple. I believe the 3007 level is the number to watch, and if I can find some time to do some more charting, I'll have a better idea before the weekend.



One more thing: In yesterday's update, I called out Netflix, and later in the day I alerted to $AMZN on my 5 min chart. Looks like it's whipsawed into a broadening triangle. I like the 1860 target going into Oct. OPEX.



Market just opened, so I gotta run.
Have a great weekend, Traders
AA




Thursday, September 26, 2019

Market Update Sept 26th, 2019 - Taking another look at Netflix

Good morning, Traders

I have a little more time this morning, so I've been charting my ass off, trying to get caught up.

I still have several side projects going, but I'll continue to let the public charts area auto-refresh, and check-in when I can. 

Reviewing yesterday's trade: We saw a little shakeout at the open, to my secondary target (the 50 day moving average on the $SPX), and the $VIX actually broke out above my red-line (17.50), but only for an instant.  From there we saw buyers rush in.

We also saw the 200 day ma tested on the $RUT, and that triggered program buying.

$SPX - We're seeing what looks like a little breakout on the 5 min chart, but the trend remains down on this 10 min chart. I'm calling this rally a suckers rally in wave 2, because it looks like an east call. Whether I'm right or not, remains to be seen.



 If wave 3 comes next, then that little blue channel is going to break, as is the 50 day ma, and the $VIX will break out in a big way. If that doesn't happen then maybe this is only wave 1, and we'll get a another rally, when money is put to work at the beginning of the month.

 $SPX - alternate wave 1 target. Support @ 2929. A gap fill as mentioned yesterday, and a pattern I'm not a big fan of - a bearish (immature) H&S pattern.


 Netflix! - I wanted to take a closer look at this one, since a couple weeks ago, I called out Netflix at the lower bullish channel line on a long term chart, but that trend broke in short order, and all I hear about is how Netflix is down every day, and more downgrades....

Funny,  Bloomberg doesn't report when $Netflix is up 4%, anymore than they point to the $SPX rallying off the 50 day moving average, yesterday! This reminds me of $CNBC telling folks not to buy beaten up energy names, the week before a massive short squeeze...!


Speaking of the worthless cable news shows. Today CNBC calls this "whistle blower", nonsense the most important story of the day? Not sure what that has to do with the price of tea in china.

Here's a story you may not have heard: 

J.P. Morgan Banksters Finally Hit with Racketeering Charges– Better Late Than Never!


That's all the time I got, and hardly scratched the surface...

Take care,
AA

Wednesday, September 25, 2019

Market Update 9/25/2019 - low and behold I was right again!

It's been over a week, since the last update, but I ran into some technical difficulties - when this domain expired! Read all about it, and hope this never happens to you!


I was able to post an update to my LinkedIn, just before Sept. OPEX, when I sounded the warning that the market was likely NOT going to hold up into last Friday, and low and behold I was right again!  I was also right when I said the 50 day ma, was likely to hold, and the $SPX closed just above that level yesterday. I pegged support at "2960", and anyone watching the 5 min chart - in my public charts area - knows I've been alerting to this level for several weeks.

So I'm pretty darn proud of this call (s), seeing as it was an easy pullback to predict, as was this 2960 support area. I think it doesn't get any better than this!

It's nice that the market has behaved itself over the past week, or 2, but I'm not sure where to start. There's a lot going on, and I'm still busy with my side projects, and preparing (prepping) for the worst.

Long term: 

In the last blog I was extremely bearish, and most people probably think I'm nuts when I predict WWIII, but there's no way Russia can stay out of a conflict between the US and Iran. The stage has been set! See:

Paul Craig Roberts: Is Armageddon About To Unfold As The World Sits Stupidly?


Short term:

The political theater of the absurd continues, as does the staged coup against our sitting president. Some claim this (threat of an impeachment hearing lol) is what's moving markets, but it was about the time Trump threw the globalists under the bus in his UN speech, when the market sold off.


$SPX -  Last I checked we were seeing another little snap-back rally, off the 2960 target, but now the #VIX has broken out, I believe we're going lower. The next target looks like a gap fill around the 2937 level.



For whatever reason the market waited until Tuesday to roll over, even though Germany lead the decline. The selling seems a little too orderly to me.

I've added lot of charts to the public charts area, but don't have time to get into those this morning. 

Take Care, and when the $VIX breaks out above 17.50, don't forget to pull the parachute!
AA

 

Domain Expired - Removing Netfirms Parking Page (Solved) 9/25/2019

Domain Expired - Removing Netfirms Parking Page (Solved)


I usually blog technical market updates on this website, but lately I've been busy with a major construction project, and physically preparing (prepping) for a global market collapse, and I hadn't bothered checking my email for a while. That is, until last week, when I found - to my utter horror - that I had allowed my domain to expire! When you spend countless hours updating a website, and trying to drive traffic to it... only to suddenly find that it's gone in a day, is a big wake up call, but apparently this can happen to the best of us. See:
9 Famous Domain Expirations

All it takes to lose your website is to miss the final email warning to pay your annual domain fee, and next thing you know, you're website, and email no longer work. I didn't realize this until I went to update this blog, last week. and found a parking page, where 3xtraders.com used to be, and being an amateur site builder; I wasn't sure what it would take to get traffic pointed back to this blogger site.

Thankfully, most domain registrars don't just sell your domain to the highest bidder, as soon as you miss a payment. There's usually a grace period of 30 days, before you're precious domain name goes to auction.

As it turns out, it wasn't too difficult to get things back up and running again, but I had trouble finding the help I needed though internet searches, and calling technical support is always a last resort....  so, I thought it would be good to explain how to redirect traffic away from Netfirm's parking page, and back to your website.      

Assuming you're grace period hasn't lapsed, the first thing you want to do is make your payment, and wait for confirmation that you're domain has been renewed. This should allow you to gain access to your control panel.

Once you gain access to the control panel:


1. Check the box next to the domain you wish to modify. 

2. Click on the "Name Servers" tab.

3. Under "Update Name Servers", you should find, "use different name servers" is checked, with traffic being directed to a website address that looks something like, "...expired/parking page".  You want to check the "Use default name servers" - ns1.netfirms.com, and ns2.netdirms.

4. Save Changes - you should get a message, something to the effect that, "this change may take 24 hrs"... Only took a few hours for me.  

Good luck,
 AA  

  

 

Tuesday, September 17, 2019

Market Update 9/17/2019

In Friday's update I was warning of a possible black Monday, but the market held up pretty well despite a black swan out of Saudi Arabia. We even saw the $RUT, $SOX, Canada, and Russia, make  slightly higher highs! 

$Oil
Program buying in Oil was triggered above both the 50 week, and 50 month moving averages.

Support on $WTI Crude looks like 60.94 (just above my pink line - where it closed), and you can bet that's going to hold up into contract expiration. 

I'm calling the Saudi attack a false flag, because it fits. The Powers That Be, need an excuse to crash the market, and what better excuse than WWIII? 

Never forget Building #7!

University Study Finds Fire Did Not Cause 3rd Tower's Collapse on 9/11



Oil DSC - I imagine everyone is bullish on oil now, but I can't get bullish Oil, on a 1 day rally.

$BRENT - resistance on Brent Crude is 67.52, as I noted in my public charts area.

   Of course this breakout in Oil was a good excuse to continue squeezing the shorts out of Oil service stocks, but this looks like capitulation, after a 5 wave move, and I'll have to wait to see what the pullback looks like, in a week, or 3.   


What's funny is I removed the short term $USO chart on Friday, because I no longer felt confident about the sell side, and the rest is history.

The fact that the bulls have resorted to short squeezes instead of actually putting money to work... worries me. 

Looks like we got our reversal in the broader market, but we'll probably see a little relief rally on a disappointing FMOC statement. Maybe it's delayed a day, until short squeeze Friday?

Canada - This higher recent high on the $TSX scares me


This update is already running late, and I have projects to finish up, before the SHTF.
Take care,
AA 

















Friday, September 13, 2019

Market Update 9/13/2019 - Friday the 13th

I'm naturally a little superstitious, but I there's a slight chance we could be looking at a black Friday, or Black Monday, after painting doji reversal candles, on several key indices, at yesterday's close.

Of course, the more likely scenario is that the market holds up into the FOMC meeting, and that news is sold. The AI will probably get paid on this Friday (weekly OPEX), but it is Friday the 13th....
Investors could be spooked, and if the $VIX breaks out, this party will end very suddenly.   

NASDAQ: Most every chart looks like this. A little throw-over past the top of the range. This is where the average retail short seller typically capitulates.

 I'm really not sure how long the NASDAQ can hold above the 8200 level. If this were oil, I would say, "it could hold up for quite a while".  


$DJIA - holding above 27000 - This rally amounts to a 500 point breakout above the 50 day ma.


Of course every financial news outlet is pushing the "new market high" story, as they always do. Does this look like new highs on the $NYSE? No. It's all BS, and this is exactly the kind of nonsense you expect to be reported at the end of a bull market, because everyone remains bullish. Even after the next crash, they will talk about how much the market is up for the year. Well that's great, if you started investing in Jan. of 2019. Not so great for most long term investors!  





I thought I might get rained out today, so I could watch the market trade basically flat again, but the weather's clearing up. I'll set the charts to auto-refresh, but I won't have much time for charting today.

Have a great weekend, AA 
 

Thursday, September 12, 2019

Market Update 9/12/2019 - Wackamole

There's a lot going on this morning, and lately I just don't have much time to spend playing whackamole.  

Trump puts off trade tariffs, as a good-will gesture. We saw short capitulation in AH trading on that news. Funny, when Trump tweets China tariffs, he's blamed for 1000 point declines, yet when he postpones China Tariffs, the $SPX is only up 3 handles (in pre-market)? Tells me that either the (leaked) news has already been priced in, or that "good news is bad news", as the The Fed rate decision draws near. Meaning that if China trade isn't an immediate threat, then there's no reason for the FOMC to take further action.

China Trade War -  Everyone knows China is cheating, by shipping Chinese goods to Taiwan, or wherever else, and stamping it, "Made in Taiwan", and this helps explain the massive move we've seen in the Baltic Dry Index. Funny Bloomberg doesn't report that, and I can't wait to see what excuse they use for the next market sell-off?    

ECB just came out dovish, and that's providing fuel for the snap-back rally in precious metals.

This calls for a commodities sidebar: 


$GLD - Got this one right



Energy held up, despite the reversal in Oil, but we did see the rats scurry from the energy trade, back into tech. The market is pumped, and dumped one sector at the time, and yesterday it was the Russell's turn....  The $RUT chart has been a struggle, so I'm going to see if I can get a better handle on it this morning, in the time I have left. Lately I only have an hour or 2 to chart, and that just doesn't cut it.  

$OIl - Called this one right


Getting back to the $RUT: 

JP Morgans ridiculous call for investors to move into "Value Stocks", also helped the $RUT, and coincided with a breakout above the 50 day ma. Think this wasn't planned? Must be nice to control the news cycle!

 
 I have a $RUT chart in the public charts area, but let's draw up a fresh DCS chart:
1. Trend remains down. 



$RUT - looks like (short) capitulation, at a slightly lower $RVX low - followed by a reversal on that indicator.

$RVX - There's an anomaly on this chart  I've been wanting to document, and this is the perfect opportunity! Why was it down for a week?!

Anyhow 18.70 is the (fear) pivot. Expect it to remain pinned at the top of the range, for a day at least. Friday should be interesting, and at least volume has picked up!

 


$SPX - I found this alternative sideways pattern, on the S&P yesterday afternoon, and raised the target to coincide with another The FED disappointment. I keep raising targets, but the fact that the market continues to inch up is no surprise. I don't really like this alternative sideways pattern, but we did see Oil hold up in a range for a couple years, before it crashed back to earth. I prefer the broadening triangle pattern, but that's going to break the long term charts, so I'm keeping this sideways range, option, open.


$SPX DCS Chart #2 - They drove it to 3000, a psychological target, but it looks slightly overbought to me. Can it hold up into the The Fed? Probably not. Into OPEX? I don't think so. This is dumb money chasing the market up here.



Everyone is expecting the market to break out to new highs, but watch for the market to sell-off, as the $VIX breaks out above 15.

$VIX - reversal coming. 


The $VIX never lies, and I'm sure the algos have already been loaded.... 

Take Care
AA

P.S. OH ONE MORE THING!

The Apple news: Every insider, and his brother, knew the iPhone 11, and Apple TV was coming.
$AAPL managed to break out to a slightly higher high, just above the 220, so watch for investors to run for the exits below that level.  


Wednesday, September 11, 2019

Market Update - Tracking Down The Short Squeeze In Energy Stocks

Continuing where I left off in yesterday's update, and going back to, "When The Cat's Away; The Mice Will Play", and "Never Sell A Dull Market", as I've alerted to in recent blogs, and in the annotations in the Public Charts Area, the retail shorts have been squeezed out of names like Diamond Offshore, up 30% in a week, and several other beaten up energy names, and this has driven the entire rally, including on the $NYSE, and because markets are rigged, the energy sector is bound to hold up into Sept. Options Expiration, which is only a little over a week away. 

$IXE (Energy) - yet another breakout above the 50 day ma., and a retest of that support, going into yesterday's close. Should get a nice bounce at the open.


$DJUSEN - DOW Energy -  here's what the rally looks like on a 2 hour chart. Not too impressive.
I'll be adding this chart to the public charts area.


Energy is a volatile trade, and Oil doesn't look so hot here. I think anything can happen, and if the $VIX breaks out above 17.50 it's going to be risk off again.

$USO - WTI Crude - reversed after throwing out the top of my little triangle pattern. Watch for a little DCB this morning.

Opening bell opens in 10 min

AA









               

  

Tuesday, September 10, 2019

Market Update 9/10/2019 - It's All About Energy

In yesterday's update, it was "all about China". Today's it's energy.

Not seeing much movement in the broader market, but we've seen some big moves in Energy! The Zombie Banking Index ($BKX) was also up nicely, so this rally looks like a little sector rotation at best.  It's amazing to me that the broader market hardly moves, when oil and gas producers are up 4%, and even more amazing that folks would miss out on good trades, waiting for the $SPX to mover, so....

$OIL - We want to sell the top of the range on Oil as soon as this morning

Energy should follow.

$SOX also looks looks week, trading at lower highs. I like $SOXS because it's one of the more volatile triple ETFs. Not for the weak of heart. 


$DUST has been on a tear as gold miners tank. It  broke out above the $7 level yesterday, so that's the level to watch for support,. at my blue line.   



I think we could be looking at a massive market correction, but probably not until after the FED screws up again, and volume picks up; whichever comes first. 

$AAPL is the stock to watch - trading at a lower high, but pinned above support. Maybe stocks can hold up into OPEX?


I'll put the st $USO chart up at the open, but I'm going to be away most the morning. I'll try to check on stocks every couple hours, and maybe I'll have more time to baby sit this market, if storms roll in.
AA

Monday, September 9, 2019

Market Update 9/9/2019 - It's All About China

I started this blog on Friday, and what I saw was most every 50 day moving average being tested, as I think I mentioned in the last update, so that's obvious support. 

$FXI - China (FXI) is also testing the 50 day, and you can clearly see the breakout on this chart.


I added another FXI chart to the Public Charts area, showing that it may be trading in a sideways range, but I'm uncertain which pattern is correct.

Germany also broke out above the 50 day, as did US markets, but I don't see this as bullish. 

I think volatility is here to stay, and although certain indices are trading only a couple percent below their all time highs, I'm going to remain bearish. 

I see futures up this morning, but let's say the $SPX tests the 2992 level at the open? Then I believe it needs to back-test the (rigged) breakout point, where they raised the bid in the futures markets.This low volume rally looks like just another pump n' dump opportunity for the market manipulators.



$DJIA - The Dow 50 day ma is the stop hunt, at 26,550. This is the same chart you can find in the Public Charts area.



Many Elliotticians think we're in wave 3 (bullish), because the market made a higher high in June, and that's what I was thinking at the time, but a higher high isn't always bullish, as you an  see on the $DAX chart below.

$DAX - Comparing the US June breakout to the July breakout on the $DAX - the higher high in July was followed by a 5 month low - ruling out a bullish wave 3. 


 Germany has a trade surplus with China, by the way!

One more thing.... Last week: I published my updated chart of the Baltic Dry Index, and asked why it's up so much?  The only reason it's up is that ship have been taken off line, because they need to be retrofitted for cleaner fuels, and this is going to kill an already dying commodities market, in my opinion.

Shipping’s Great Fuel Switch Is Starting to Drive Up Freight Costs

AA

Thursday, September 5, 2019

Market Update 9/5 - The Rally To Nowhere

I made some good progress on my side projects yesterday, and up early, so I thought I'd do a quick update. This is what I like to do in my spare time.

This is a relief rally of some sort? I suppose on good new out of Hong Kong, China, and Brexit... and a good excuse to squeeze the retail short sellers into another Weekly OPEX, but then what? 

The $DAX continues to lead - as usual. Seeing a gap fill target there - around the 12120 level. ST support becomes the 50 day ma, until they pull the rug out again.


 $DJIA - gapped up above the 26,200 level, and probably want's to test the 50 day, and close just above it. Note the smaller broadening pattern (range) we've been watching develop for a couple weeks.





 $SPX - The top of the range looks like 2961ish. I've been pointing to this number for weeks, and this just happens to be exactly, where futures are trading this morning.   If this is bearish consolidation in wave B - and I believe it is - I like the 2600 target in wave C, maybe as soon as Oct. 



We also see the $SPY breaking out above the 50 day, and the bulls are used to returning from vacation, hammering down the $VIX, and driving the retail short sellers out. They're like spoiled children who are used to getting their own way, but fast money in, fast money out.

So expect the $SPX to hold the 50 day, going into the weekend. This is going to ensure that the bulls get paid on weekly OPEX. Then watch for the rug to get pulled again, probably in AH trading, and as soon as next week.

The NASDAQ still had to trade back to the top of the range, and in the meantime; if you're looking for a bullish tech trade, try $NFLX bouncing off the bottom of the bullish channel. How predictable it that?!



Russia, NATGAS, all up big as predicted  #ChaChing!

$BDI - One more thing I wanted to draw attention to is the massive move in the Baltic Dry Index. I called this trade out when I was still on Twitter. If you have twitter you can search "@3XTraders Baltic", for the exact date.... but what's behind this massive move? Is someone stockpiling commodities, and if so, why...? It's a little disconcerting!




As I mentioned yesterday, I'll provide future updates when I can find the time, but I have a lot on my plate right now, and just don't have the time to babysit this market. I updated the 5 min chart at yesterdays open, let the charts refresh while I was away, and updated the 5 min chart again after lunch. I'll probably do the same today

Take Care,
AA

Wednesday, September 4, 2019

Market Update 9/4/2019 - Important Announcement RE: The Public Charts Area

Important Announcement RE: The Public Charts

Hope you all had a good Labor Day!

I started several big projects over the weekend, and want to get them done before the weather changes, so I don't expect to have much time for real time charting during normal trading hours.

To help lighten my workload: I've removed several sector charts from the Public Charts Area, Including the Oil trade.

I've decided to leave the short term 5 min $SPX chart up for now at least, and I'll be updating that chart before the opening bell, and setting it to auto-refresh when I can, but that feature doesn't always work.

$SPX 5 min - Switched out the 1 min chart for this one this morning



You can see the $SPX just took out my red line (target), as well as resistance on the 30 min chart, so we continue to trade in a range, and until the market finds some direction, I'm not going to be missing a thing.  

Same thing on the 30 min chart view:


I can't really predict what happens once this consolidation completes, but I wouldn't expect much until the, The Fed reports, just ahead of OPEX. My best guess is we trade back to the bottom of the range, and maybe a suckers rally going into OPEX.

Maybe I can find time to do some more extensive charting in a week or 2, and provide a weekly update, and see where we are....

Until then, take care, and good luck!
AA