Friday, September 13, 2019

Market Update 9/13/2019 - Friday the 13th

I'm naturally a little superstitious, but I there's a slight chance we could be looking at a black Friday, or Black Monday, after painting doji reversal candles, on several key indices, at yesterday's close.

Of course, the more likely scenario is that the market holds up into the FOMC meeting, and that news is sold. The AI will probably get paid on this Friday (weekly OPEX), but it is Friday the 13th....
Investors could be spooked, and if the $VIX breaks out, this party will end very suddenly.   

NASDAQ: Most every chart looks like this. A little throw-over past the top of the range. This is where the average retail short seller typically capitulates.

 I'm really not sure how long the NASDAQ can hold above the 8200 level. If this were oil, I would say, "it could hold up for quite a while".  


$DJIA - holding above 27000 - This rally amounts to a 500 point breakout above the 50 day ma.


Of course every financial news outlet is pushing the "new market high" story, as they always do. Does this look like new highs on the $NYSE? No. It's all BS, and this is exactly the kind of nonsense you expect to be reported at the end of a bull market, because everyone remains bullish. Even after the next crash, they will talk about how much the market is up for the year. Well that's great, if you started investing in Jan. of 2019. Not so great for most long term investors!  





I thought I might get rained out today, so I could watch the market trade basically flat again, but the weather's clearing up. I'll set the charts to auto-refresh, but I won't have much time for charting today.

Have a great weekend, AA 
 

Thursday, September 12, 2019

Market Update 9/12/2019 - Wackamole

There's a lot going on this morning, and lately I just don't have much time to spend playing whackamole.  

Trump puts off trade tariffs, as a good-will gesture. We saw short capitulation in AH trading on that news. Funny, when Trump tweets China tariffs, he's blamed for 1000 point declines, yet when he postpones China Tariffs, the $SPX is only up 3 handles (in pre-market)? Tells me that either the (leaked) news has already been priced in, or that "good news is bad news", as the The Fed rate decision draws near. Meaning that if China trade isn't an immediate threat, then there's no reason for the FOMC to take further action.

China Trade War -  Everyone knows China is cheating, by shipping Chinese goods to Taiwan, or wherever else, and stamping it, "Made in Taiwan", and this helps explain the massive move we've seen in the Baltic Dry Index. Funny Bloomberg doesn't report that, and I can't wait to see what excuse they use for the next market sell-off?    

ECB just came out dovish, and that's providing fuel for the snap-back rally in precious metals.

This calls for a commodities sidebar: 


$GLD - Got this one right



Energy held up, despite the reversal in Oil, but we did see the rats scurry from the energy trade, back into tech. The market is pumped, and dumped one sector at the time, and yesterday it was the Russell's turn....  The $RUT chart has been a struggle, so I'm going to see if I can get a better handle on it this morning, in the time I have left. Lately I only have an hour or 2 to chart, and that just doesn't cut it.  

$OIl - Called this one right


Getting back to the $RUT: 

JP Morgans ridiculous call for investors to move into "Value Stocks", also helped the $RUT, and coincided with a breakout above the 50 day ma. Think this wasn't planned? Must be nice to control the news cycle!

 
 I have a $RUT chart in the public charts area, but let's draw up a fresh DCS chart:
1. Trend remains down. 



$RUT - looks like (short) capitulation, at a slightly lower $RVX low - followed by a reversal on that indicator.

$RVX - There's an anomaly on this chart  I've been wanting to document, and this is the perfect opportunity! Why was it down for a week?!

Anyhow 18.70 is the (fear) pivot. Expect it to remain pinned at the top of the range, for a day at least. Friday should be interesting, and at least volume has picked up!

 


$SPX - I found this alternative sideways pattern, on the S&P yesterday afternoon, and raised the target to coincide with another The FED disappointment. I keep raising targets, but the fact that the market continues to inch up is no surprise. I don't really like this alternative sideways pattern, but we did see Oil hold up in a range for a couple years, before it crashed back to earth. I prefer the broadening triangle pattern, but that's going to break the long term charts, so I'm keeping this sideways range, option, open.


$SPX DCS Chart #2 - They drove it to 3000, a psychological target, but it looks slightly overbought to me. Can it hold up into the The Fed? Probably not. Into OPEX? I don't think so. This is dumb money chasing the market up here.



Everyone is expecting the market to break out to new highs, but watch for the market to sell-off, as the $VIX breaks out above 15.

$VIX - reversal coming. 


The $VIX never lies, and I'm sure the algos have already been loaded.... 

Take Care
AA

P.S. OH ONE MORE THING!

The Apple news: Every insider, and his brother, knew the iPhone 11, and Apple TV was coming.
$AAPL managed to break out to a slightly higher high, just above the 220, so watch for investors to run for the exits below that level.  


Wednesday, September 11, 2019

Market Update - Tracking Down The Short Squeeze In Energy Stocks

Continuing where I left off in yesterday's update, and going back to, "When The Cat's Away; The Mice Will Play", and "Never Sell A Dull Market", as I've alerted to in recent blogs, and in the annotations in the Public Charts Area, the retail shorts have been squeezed out of names like Diamond Offshore, up 30% in a week, and several other beaten up energy names, and this has driven the entire rally, including on the $NYSE, and because markets are rigged, the energy sector is bound to hold up into Sept. Options Expiration, which is only a little over a week away. 

$IXE (Energy) - yet another breakout above the 50 day ma., and a retest of that support, going into yesterday's close. Should get a nice bounce at the open.


$DJUSEN - DOW Energy -  here's what the rally looks like on a 2 hour chart. Not too impressive.
I'll be adding this chart to the public charts area.


Energy is a volatile trade, and Oil doesn't look so hot here. I think anything can happen, and if the $VIX breaks out above 17.50 it's going to be risk off again.

$USO - WTI Crude - reversed after throwing out the top of my little triangle pattern. Watch for a little DCB this morning.

Opening bell opens in 10 min

AA









               

  

Tuesday, September 10, 2019

Market Update 9/10/2019 - It's All About Energy

In yesterday's update, it was "all about China". Today's it's energy.

Not seeing much movement in the broader market, but we've seen some big moves in Energy! The Zombie Banking Index ($BKX) was also up nicely, so this rally looks like a little sector rotation at best.  It's amazing to me that the broader market hardly moves, when oil and gas producers are up 4%, and even more amazing that folks would miss out on good trades, waiting for the $SPX to mover, so....

$OIL - We want to sell the top of the range on Oil as soon as this morning

Energy should follow.

$SOX also looks looks week, trading at lower highs. I like $SOXS because it's one of the more volatile triple ETFs. Not for the weak of heart. 


$DUST has been on a tear as gold miners tank. It  broke out above the $7 level yesterday, so that's the level to watch for support,. at my blue line.   



I think we could be looking at a massive market correction, but probably not until after the FED screws up again, and volume picks up; whichever comes first. 

$AAPL is the stock to watch - trading at a lower high, but pinned above support. Maybe stocks can hold up into OPEX?


I'll put the st $USO chart up at the open, but I'm going to be away most the morning. I'll try to check on stocks every couple hours, and maybe I'll have more time to baby sit this market, if storms roll in.
AA

Monday, September 9, 2019

Market Update 9/9/2019 - It's All About China

I started this blog on Friday, and what I saw was most every 50 day moving average being tested, as I think I mentioned in the last update, so that's obvious support. 

$FXI - China (FXI) is also testing the 50 day, and you can clearly see the breakout on this chart.


I added another FXI chart to the Public Charts area, showing that it may be trading in a sideways range, but I'm uncertain which pattern is correct.

Germany also broke out above the 50 day, as did US markets, but I don't see this as bullish. 

I think volatility is here to stay, and although certain indices are trading only a couple percent below their all time highs, I'm going to remain bearish. 

I see futures up this morning, but let's say the $SPX tests the 2992 level at the open? Then I believe it needs to back-test the (rigged) breakout point, where they raised the bid in the futures markets.This low volume rally looks like just another pump n' dump opportunity for the market manipulators.



$DJIA - The Dow 50 day ma is the stop hunt, at 26,550. This is the same chart you can find in the Public Charts area.



Many Elliotticians think we're in wave 3 (bullish), because the market made a higher high in June, and that's what I was thinking at the time, but a higher high isn't always bullish, as you an  see on the $DAX chart below.

$DAX - Comparing the US June breakout to the July breakout on the $DAX - the higher high in July was followed by a 5 month low - ruling out a bullish wave 3. 


 Germany has a trade surplus with China, by the way!

One more thing.... Last week: I published my updated chart of the Baltic Dry Index, and asked why it's up so much?  The only reason it's up is that ship have been taken off line, because they need to be retrofitted for cleaner fuels, and this is going to kill an already dying commodities market, in my opinion.

Shipping’s Great Fuel Switch Is Starting to Drive Up Freight Costs

AA

Thursday, September 5, 2019

Market Update 9/5 - The Rally To Nowhere

I made some good progress on my side projects yesterday, and up early, so I thought I'd do a quick update. This is what I like to do in my spare time.

This is a relief rally of some sort? I suppose on good new out of Hong Kong, China, and Brexit... and a good excuse to squeeze the retail short sellers into another Weekly OPEX, but then what? 

The $DAX continues to lead - as usual. Seeing a gap fill target there - around the 12120 level. ST support becomes the 50 day ma, until they pull the rug out again.


 $DJIA - gapped up above the 26,200 level, and probably want's to test the 50 day, and close just above it. Note the smaller broadening pattern (range) we've been watching develop for a couple weeks.





 $SPX - The top of the range looks like 2961ish. I've been pointing to this number for weeks, and this just happens to be exactly, where futures are trading this morning.   If this is bearish consolidation in wave B - and I believe it is - I like the 2600 target in wave C, maybe as soon as Oct. 



We also see the $SPY breaking out above the 50 day, and the bulls are used to returning from vacation, hammering down the $VIX, and driving the retail short sellers out. They're like spoiled children who are used to getting their own way, but fast money in, fast money out.

So expect the $SPX to hold the 50 day, going into the weekend. This is going to ensure that the bulls get paid on weekly OPEX. Then watch for the rug to get pulled again, probably in AH trading, and as soon as next week.

The NASDAQ still had to trade back to the top of the range, and in the meantime; if you're looking for a bullish tech trade, try $NFLX bouncing off the bottom of the bullish channel. How predictable it that?!



Russia, NATGAS, all up big as predicted  #ChaChing!

$BDI - One more thing I wanted to draw attention to is the massive move in the Baltic Dry Index. I called this trade out when I was still on Twitter. If you have twitter you can search "@3XTraders Baltic", for the exact date.... but what's behind this massive move? Is someone stockpiling commodities, and if so, why...? It's a little disconcerting!




As I mentioned yesterday, I'll provide future updates when I can find the time, but I have a lot on my plate right now, and just don't have the time to babysit this market. I updated the 5 min chart at yesterdays open, let the charts refresh while I was away, and updated the 5 min chart again after lunch. I'll probably do the same today

Take Care,
AA

Wednesday, September 4, 2019

Market Update 9/4/2019 - Important Announcement RE: The Public Charts Area

Important Announcement RE: The Public Charts

Hope you all had a good Labor Day!

I started several big projects over the weekend, and want to get them done before the weather changes, so I don't expect to have much time for real time charting during normal trading hours.

To help lighten my workload: I've removed several sector charts from the Public Charts Area, Including the Oil trade.

I've decided to leave the short term 5 min $SPX chart up for now at least, and I'll be updating that chart before the opening bell, and setting it to auto-refresh when I can, but that feature doesn't always work.

$SPX 5 min - Switched out the 1 min chart for this one this morning



You can see the $SPX just took out my red line (target), as well as resistance on the 30 min chart, so we continue to trade in a range, and until the market finds some direction, I'm not going to be missing a thing.  

Same thing on the 30 min chart view:


I can't really predict what happens once this consolidation completes, but I wouldn't expect much until the, The Fed reports, just ahead of OPEX. My best guess is we trade back to the bottom of the range, and maybe a suckers rally going into OPEX.

Maybe I can find time to do some more extensive charting in a week or 2, and provide a weekly update, and see where we are....

Until then, take care, and good luck!
AA