Market Update - Happy New Year's Eve - Friday - weekly OPEX - 12/31/21

 I thought there was no trading this New Years Eve, Friday, but apparently I got the dates screwed up? Anyhow, my prediction was that the bulls would not win on this weekly OPEX, after pumping the $SPX to another only slightly higher high, to yet another round number target (4800). 

As I said on Wed: "Many brokerage houses have already closed their books for 2021, so window dressing can come down, and the bulls have failed to buy protection..."

Yesterday, we saw sell orders, going into the close, and although I was away from my desk, I did alert to a little breakout on the $VIX, and you can see for yourself where the $VIX gapped above the 50X moving average, on a 5 min. chart. I think it's pretty obvious that gap up was planned.   

$VIX breakout on the 5 min. view. pic.twitter.com/FMB94ArpXk

— Veteran Market Timer (@3Xtraders) December 30, 2021

 I haven't had time this morning to see what exactly was sold, but a quick look at the top decliners point to Semiconductors, a couple energy stocks, and of course Biogen, after Samsung denied reports that they wanted to buy Biogen. 

Just for fun, let's pull up the Biogen chart! 

$BIIB (biogen) - technical bounce, later fueled by a false rumor. Rigged 

$SOX - breaks support - this is only 1 of a dozen or so $SOX charts I have working. I think there are a couple more, located in the public charts area, as well, but I don't usually give away my best charts, free.  If you'd like alerts to live trades, let me know.... and maybe I'll start a pay service. 

We also saw a reversal in Big tech, and if stocks can't even rally to new highs, but the fake news is reporting that stocks are trading at all time highs, I'd be running in the other direction. 

$NDX - this chart is located in the public charts area. Support broke at the pink line. If you don't understand the charts, review the chart legend located on "legend" tab, near the top of this page.  

I'd expect a pretty slow day today, as many traders remain on holiday, and more sell orders, going into the close. 

New money get's put to work on Monday, so even if we see a massive sell-off, you won't want to be short, going into next week. 

Take Care, AA 

Taking a look back at 2021, and beyond, and have a Happy New Year!

 Looking back at 2021, and Beyond 

And when I say beyond, I'm referring to the past 13 years, since the failed recover of 2009. 

This morning I had planned to focus on more moving averages, which I see being bought, and how these levels continue to fight the patterns I'm seeing, but yesterday's blog really got me thinking, about the "new normal", and that led me to do some charting of the $NYSE. and  at this point I'm 100% convinced, that the market has been taken over (totally rigged) by the criminal cabal in Washington, formally known as our representative government. 

Of course this also includes the fed, but the effort to keep America from falling like Rome, is no doubt being led by politicians who are afraid of what will happen, when their ponzi scheme economy finally collapses.  

As of today, most investors believe everything will continue as it has since every other market crash, and they have complete confidence in the federal reserve. This is the height of complacency, and ignores the fact that 90% of what is reported by the industrial media complex, is propaganda, designed to confuse the population and shut up anyone who dares to expose their lies. Bread and Circuses!  

This explain why nobody in Washington is seen calling for the release of Journalist Julian Assange, or any other true whistle-blowers, for that matter, but I digress.    

Looking back at the failed bull market of 2009. 

$NYSE (chart below) - 1. See the bull market which started in 2009, and looked like it had been confirmed in 2011, when it traded into a bullish upturned channel (seen in blue). 2. Next see where that bull market ended in 2018. That's where we saw the end of anything resembling an honest market, and the beginning of totally rigged markets. Of course, I'm sure the bankers were told, "do whatever you have to do to save the economy", because financial collapse isn't an option, and so they continued using tax payer money (as they were authorized to do in 2008), to drive stocks to new highs. Of course, it's impossible to drive every stock up, and this is why only a few heavily weighted stocks are driving the market ever higher. 

The term new normal", to describe market crashes, actually began with the so called "flash crash", but a market which crashes every few years, unless money is injected into it, is anything but normal! 

3. See how the market was driven to new all time highs in 2017, 2019, and again in the present day 2021, and how once that goal is achieved, and the bulls declare victory, profit taking ensues, and the market inevitably crashes. 

 I believe they won't crash this market again until the 2022 calendar year, and possibly not until new money is put to work at the beginning of the year, but timelines aren't too predictable.   

4. Another thing to make note of on the chart above is that the 50 week moving average, which was bought, in the most recent pullback. I alluded to this in yesterday's blog.  

 One more chart view 

The DOW: The dow continues to under-perform, and basically just remain propped up, above the upper channel, but what I really want to point out, is how the chart was repaired in the beginning of 2020, where it was intentionally driven back into the broken channel. 

Also see how the 200 day ma, lines up with a juicy gap-fill target? Perfect! 

Of course the fake news can't stop reporting that the $SPX has hit 70 new highs this year, and bullish investors must be eating that shit up, but a fool and his money are soon parted.  

Take Care in 2022, and have a Happy New Year! 

AA   
 

Market Update 12/29/2021- Is This What The New Normal Looks Like?

 1. Reminder: This is another truncated week; since New Years Eve is on Saturday this year, we get Friday off. That makes for 2 OPEX Thursday's in a row, which is a little unusual. I suspect we're not going to take out the 4800 level again. Many brokerage houses have already closed their books for 2021, so window dressing can come down, and the bulls have failed to buy protection...  

2. MLK day falls on the Monday before OPEX, so that's another truncated week. It's too soon to try to predict that outcome, but it's another thing to keep in mind, moving forward.  

3. After reviewing yesterday's update; I found that I failed to add the short term (5 min.) $SPX chart, showing the index bounce out of the hole, at the 50X moving average, as seen below. 

$SPX bounces off the 50X 5 min.
Machines are trading this junk pic.twitter.com/y4IPCpZEhy

— Veteran Market Timer (@3Xtraders) December 27, 2021

You clearly see to bullish hammers at the 50 moving average. Not sure who is trading this (5 min.) timeline, but I suspect it's computer programs? The only reason I notice this stuff, is because more and more, I find myself watching short term chart views on my phone, so I suppose it could be day traders buying these averages? Not really sure... 

4. Something I didn't mention in yesterday's update, is that the $VIX was simultaneously sold at it's respective 50 day moving average, on the daily candlestick chart. 

I think probably 90% of my audience doesn't really understand the full relevance of all these moving averages working in tandem. It's not normal, but this seems to be the new normal, and it could be a game changer! If computer programs are running the show, then don't expect Elliott Wave Theory, pattern trading, or channel trading to work. I find myself having to think out of the box, more and more, over the past several years, because the rules - that used to govern most markets - no longer apply.

I never used to have to watch 50 week moving averages, in order to pick a market bottom; but that's what it's come down to....   

Hypothetically speaking: 

1. What if bullish computer programs is preventing what used to be considered "normal healthy market corrections", and instead, money continues to be put to work, shorting the $VIX, and buying key moving averages. This would sure help explain a lot!  

2. What if investor sentiment is taken out of the equation? Well, what if I told you that bullish investor sentiment peaked out all the way back in the spring of 2020?! Again, half of my audience may not understand the importance of market sentiment, but it used to be that bullishness would peak out, and that would be followed by a "normal healthy correction". b. At some point - maybe a month later - maybe 3 months later - bearishness would peak out, and then you'd see the short sellers get squeeze, and then the cycle would repeat. Well, we haven't seen a normal correction in more than 2 years, and today market sentiment is bearish. It's not normal!          

Market Sentiment 

 I don't usually reveal my sentiment indicators, but I have several sentiment charts I use, to help me time markets. 

 $BPNYA (low extremes on this chart are where bullish reversals are found, while high extremes are bearish) - shows that bullish investor sentiment peaked all the way back in early 2020. after the Fed proved it was willing to do just about anything in order to keep global markets from correcting, but more importantly, it was an obvious technical bottom. 

   

Anyhow, you can also see - on the chart above - that investor sentiment continues to decline, along with the number of stocks which are trading bullish (above their 200 day moving averages), I might add. So, where is the normal health correction, we used to know? How does investor sentiment turn bearish, when the $SPX makes 70 new all time highs? It's not normal. 

And Speaking of other things that aren't normal, but are the new normal. Look at the volume, on certain indices, and especially the NASDAQ. Where is the money coming from? Are 30 different governments buying US tech stocks, or is taxpayer money being used to prop up the market? You decide... 

$COMPQ - look at the 2X normal volume on this chart! 

Of course I believe the market has to correct at some point, or totally collapse. I'm not sure what that's going to look like this time, but it probably starts with another Monday Morning surprise.  

Take Care, AA 

Market Update 12/28/21 The Bullish Reversal in Natural Gas, and the Strongest Santa Claus Rally in 20 Years?

The Fake financial news networks are calling this the greatest "Santa Claus rally", in 20 years, but it's just - end of year - window dressing to me, and Santa is the perfect scapegoat for market manipulation during the holidays. 

First off Natural Gas  

We saw a little shakeout in Natural Gas last week (on Thursday), where I recommended it, in real time...

$UNG #NatGas pulls back to the lower end of the range. Now's you're chance, NG, Bulls pic.twitter.com/vIZjtDtlt6

— Veteran Market Timer (@3Xtraders) December 23, 2021

Yesterday, we saw NatGas rally reverse and rally 7.77% (that seems like an amazing coincidence 777) 

3 different NatGas Charts 

$UNG - this is the same 15 min. chart - as above - updated. See the broadening (bottom) triangle pattern. So, looks like it whipsawed into a bottom. 

$UNG - daily candlestick chart - looks like a doji reversal candle. Funny, some fool on twitter was trolling me, and talking about a bearish candlestick pattern. 

That brings me to the 3rd chart

$UNG - DCS - Seeing a larger broadening pattern with res. around the 4.20 level, but yesterday it was sold at the 20 day moving average.

 I think it wants to trade in the top of the larger pattern, but probably needs to consolidate (lower) in the near term. Expect lots a head fakes in that type of pattern; not for the weak of heart. 

Next, yesterday's ridiculous rally on the $SPX as viewed on the 5 min chart. 

 $SPX - I couldn't believe what I was seeing! 

$SPX is being bought at the 10 day X 5 min. MA. #SantaClausRally being reported 🤣 pic.twitter.com/fjlYKG2Qei

— Veteran Market Timer (@3Xtraders) December 27, 2021

It was about this time, the $SPX rolled over, and took out the 20X moving average, before finding support at the 50X. 

$SPX - bought at the 50X 5 min average. From there it broke out to another record high close.

Edit 12/29/21

 

$SPX bounces off the 50X 5 min.
Machines are trading this junk pic.twitter.com/y4IPCpZEhy

— Veteran Market Timer (@3Xtraders) December 27, 2021

 

Is that crazy or what? I've never seen charts behave like this! I'm talking about moving averages on 5 min. charts. 

So, where is the $SPX going? 4800, naturally. All these pumpers have are round number targets, and this target looks goo on my 30 min. chart. It could even hold up into new years, or pull back and retest the top of the pattern on Monday. 

$SPX 30 min. 

So, if that chart pattern is correct, the market can continue to hold up, with little further gains, until March. 1 Month to pullback to the lower end of the pattern, and another month to retest the highs again. Then a major reversal, and a correction, which could continue into the summer. 

I've added the 30 min $SPX to the public charts and, and updated the $VIX chart as well. 

Take Care, AA 

Market Update 12/27/2021 - Light Volume Manipulation Continues

 Hope you all had a great holiday! 

Thursday the manipulators managed to drive the $SPX to a new closing high, simply by lifting several $SPX components, around 2.5%. 

The actual market - as I pointed out in the last update is not even close to breaking out to new highs. Check the $NYSE, and the $WLSH, indices for yourself.  

Even the $SOX has - which had been leading in 2020, and 2021, has only been trading in a range, over the past several weeks. 

So, why manipulate the $SPX? Because this is the only thing most traders watch - the $SPX - and it's going to make headlines on most the financial fake news outlets. If traders believe the market has broken out to new highs, they might also think, it's "off to the races".  

 $WLSH - looks like the market controllers forgot to rig this well diversified index; and just like the $SOX, it topped out several weeks ago. 

I'll continue to watch the fake bull market from the sidelines, thank you! 

If you're fool enough to trade on light holiday volume, you're going to want to watch the $VIX, very closely. Looks like it was already oversold last week, and this morning it's up in futures. 

$VIX resistance looks like 19.65  

  I continue to look towards China, for bargain basement entry points, as well as other sector specific trades.

$CZH - China 

Good Luck in 2022, 

AA 

 

sss 

2021 Wrap-up, and A look ahead at the trade going into the new year 2022

In yesterday's update, I got so caught up exposing the corporate owned financial fake news, I forgot to add the updated Dow chart, so I did that on my (pinned) twitter page, and that's the place to look for the latest up to the minute updates.  

Forgot to add the Dow breakout chart to today's market update, but we've been watching the 35.1 level for months. You should know the drill by now #Stocks #Dow35k #MerryChristmas pic.twitter.com/bfg37Fue8Y

— Veteran Market Timer (@3Xtraders) December 22, 2021

I've turned wishy-washy on Natural Gas, after yesterday's action, and updated that on my twitter as well. 

I forgot to mention the massive gains we've seen in the airlines, and $JETS, which I called out as recently as last week. That the recent selling was nothing more than a "shakeout, before the breakout". 

Airlines up 5% this week! Too bad there isn't a leveraged Bull ETF. It would be pushing 15%....  

With only 4 more trading day's left in 2021; The market continued to rally yesterday, as volatility continued to fall-off - as I've been predicting it would... - for weeks - and the market manipulators have managed to hold the market near record highs, going into the end of the year - which I also predicted - but this is just to make Joe Biden and the Democrates look good, and so that the crooked bankers get their yearly bonuses, and probably for other reasons I don't fully understand. For whatever reason they have for keeping the market propped up since April. It's all an illusion; window dressing; lipstick on the proverbial pig.   

I see futures barely up on this Thursday (weekly OPEX), and think it's best not to trade this dull market. I'm mostly in cash, and planning to sit on the sidelines, until we see some consolidation, or a breakout somewhere.  

Monday's sell-off started in Germany, so US markets shouldn't be leading a recovery. Market's continue to get ahead of themselves, and on super light volume. 

Watch the 20 day moving average on the $VIX, as machines will be selling, even if noone else wants to.... 

but at the end of the month, we've only continues to trade in a range April.

This might be news to anyone who believes CNBC, when they report that the market has made 60 new highs this year, but the market isn't measured in consecutive days, or winning streaks.  

The $NYSE is only trading a couple hundred points higher than it was back in April, and is only expected to hold up a little longer. 

Have a Merry Christmas, and a Happy New Year, 

AA 

Market Update 12/21/21 - The Shakeout, before the Breakout

Today is Wed, 12/22/21. I started this update on Tuesday, after we saw, yet another, Monday morning shakeout, in Oil and equities.   

The Monday morning shakeout routine is getting old, and it's really more of a racket - as in racketeering - than a routine. Normally, you don't see markets tank on a Monday, and especially on light volume. In the past I would just chalk it up to another unpredictable move - on light holiday volume - but in hindsight, I'm - once again -  left  connecting the dots.   

I watched a few minutes of CNBC's World Wide Exchange - Tuesday morning - and the first thing they reported is that, "the DOW sold off 700 points!", as they showed the intraday action in time lapse. Pretty scary, right?     

700 points on the dow, may sound like a lot, and that would've been considered a big move, back when the dow was trading below 20,000, but the truth is, that the Dow only closed down 433 points, or 1.23%, and who watches the Dow, anyways? Joe Sixpack, of course. When you hear traders talking about "shaking out the weak hands", this is who we're talking about.     

2. Next, they (CNBC), have one of the Najarian brothers on, who looks like he'd been up for 3 days - on a crack binge - rambling... something about the $VIX, as if he knows something. I had to change the channel, at that point, because I'd already seen enough.... 

I only watch enough CNBC to get a feel for what the enemy is up to, and that includes the fast money, TV traders. 

Now, I don't have proof that CNBC, and their traders, are involved in racketeering, yet the circumstantial evidence... continues to pile up! 

For instance: Look at this recent headline from Nov. 30th, 2021 -    

Dow finishes 460 points lower in major reversal triggered by first U.S. omicron case (CNBC)

Look, if there had been a "MAJOR REVERSAL", back in Nov., we - as experienced traders - would all know about it, so we know that headline is fiction, but what it the purpose of trying to scare the small investor, with fake headlines?      

The motive for manipulating markets is obvious; money. But for TV traders, who also have a system, and books they're selling, they have another incentive to conspire to manipulate markets. Reputation, notoriety, fame What about ratings? Is it any wonder that Jim Cramer would pull multiple publicity stunts, in order to draw a larger audience, or to spur animal instincts, or to push a political narrative, if that's their hidden agenda? We know the deep state is every bit as corrupt, as the corporate owned media, including these fake financial news networks. 

I see Cramer trending on Twitter, and stealing the headlines every week, and have to wonder, do these idiots (today's average investor) not see they're being played, by the court jester of political opinion? Are they unaware that CNBC is fake news?      

Jim Cramer: The economy is ‘a juggernaut’ now, headed toward post-Covid ‘boom’ (CNBC) 

CNBC's Jim Cramer doubles down on belief that government has the 'right' to force citizens to obey vax-mandate (FOX)

Cramer expects omicron-related stock slump to be short-lived, so he’s putting cash to work (CNBC) 

CNBC's Jim Cramer announces he tested positive for Covid-19 (CNN)

What about their many conflicts of interest...? You are aware that CNBC is owned by NBCUniversal, Comcast, and GE, right? Source wikipedia.com

GE's CNBC Purchases a Stake In Aspiring Electronic Exchange Sept. 15, 1999 (WSJ) 

That's the same GE, who had to be bailed out in 2008, thanks to their risky lending practices! 

The same GE, who was accused of fraud in August, 2019 (USA Today) 

The same GE who continues to sell technology to Iran...? Many sources; Google it!   

Is it any wonder that Trump's Iran policy was bashed by so many corporate owned media outlets? 

American companies - including GE - are paying the price for Trump's Iran policy (CNN) Well boo-hoo! 

More conflicts of interest 

CNBC Imposes New Rules On Trading by Employees

...Maria Bartiromo, interviewed Sanford I. Weill, the chairman of Citigroup, after disclosing that she owned 1,000 shares of the company's stock." (NYTimes) 

That's the same "Sandy Weill", who was at heart of the banking deregulation, which helped cause the financial crisis of 2007-08! 

And then there's the eternal meltdown of the GE Fukuyama nuclear plant, which continually spills radioactive waste into the ocean, to this very day. Do you believe that eco-catastrophe was accurate reported? See

 Tracking contaminated water from the Fukushima nuclear accident (phys.org) 

Meanwhile:

Federal Appeals Court Dismisses Case Against GE Over Fukushima Disaster  (jurist.org) 

And what about the apparent conflict of interest between "Steve Burke, Chairman of NBCUniversal - the parent company of CNBC - is also on the Board of Directors at both Warren Buffet's Berkshire Hathaway and JP Morgan."  (reddit)

With so much corruption, and so much conflict of interest, on such a grande scale, it kind of makes a surprise shakeout on a Monday, on light holiday trading volume, seem almost insignificant. 

But I digress! 

So, knowing that the corrupt bastards only care about one thing, and that is to drive tech stocks even higher - because minus a few over-bought tech stocks, there really is no bull market -  I went directly to the NASDAQ chart, and this is what I found. A little shakeout at the lower end of a parallel channel.

$COMPQ - NASDAQ - I've circled Monday's action, after drawing a simple bullish parallel channel line - seen in black. Is it any wonder that CNBC is pointing to the sell-off on the dow, instead of the only market that matters to these people (tech)?  The larger channel is expanding, or broadening. slightly. 

Of course the selling started in Germany, when the rug was pulled out (below the 200 day ma) and I'm certain CNBC, and the Najarian bros. know - some of the people - who were behind it. 

Also keep in mind this shakeout came only 1 day after Dec. OPEX, and whoever purchased call Options on Monday, is already winning. Funny Jon Najarian didn't mention any "usual options activity" , when everybody knows that's his only indicator. He basically follows the smart money - as he calls it.     

Getting back to the $VIX

The $VIX didn't break out to a new Dec. high, not even close, and the selling volume was not super high."Omicron", wasn't the reason for the selling on Monday. In fact, once markets opened, there was no panic selling.

$VIX 10 min chart. trending lower. Think I'll add this chart to the public charts area. 

Oil - We did get our pullback in oil. ChaChing! 

China - Seems like everyone is getting on the bullish China bandwagon now, which I don't like, but I can't argue with the chart, or yesterday's bullish reversal. I added to the $FXI chart back to the public charts area, yesterday. 

Gold - gold is interesting; as it's traded into a bearish H&S on the short term view, but last I checked it had broken out above the 200 day moving average. I wouldn't trust the (bearish) pattern, considering that we're trading into a holiday, and this is typically when short squeezes happen. 

I've added the $GLD chart back to the public charts area.  

And finally 

NatGas  - remains in a bull market, even after the rug being pulled out in Nov. Support is the 3.40 level 

 - the previous high. 

Take Care, AA 

      

Market Update Friday, Dec., OPEX, 12/17/21 - looking at yesterday's plunge, and a look ahead at the next couple weeks

 Today is December Options Expiration, and by the looks of it, I'm going to be right on my call for most options traders to NOT get paid.... 

From my blog dated Friday is Dec. 8th: 

"...the next Friday is "OPEX, and that most Options expire worthless, I think this rally can continue into this Friday, and sell-off into the next"

Normally - this time of year - we'd be getting into unpredictable territory, with OPEX leading into a long holiday, but surprisingly the charts continue to work like a charm! Maybe it's just easier to predict this year, or maybe I'm just getting better at this. 

Yesterday the $SPX and DOW, were both driven to their respective, yet arbitrary, psychological (round number) targets. I call them "arbitrary", because only a below average IQ, market pumper, with no technical nohow, would look at a market as a series of round number targets. This is how Joe Six-pack looks at markets, and of course the lame stream media encourages it! 

Not the sharpest tools in the shed

 If you saw the annotations on the st public chart on Wed, you probably saw my comment that "round number targets are for fools", and that's why those round number targets became stop hunts (always in pink). 

$SPX - stop-out target breaks - below 4700. Not much of a sell-off, but a perfect call, nonetheless!

4700 becomes resistance, and you should already know that. 

What's nice is, I didn't even have to watch the chart, or update it. I updated it in the morning, and then I spent most the day away from my desk.  

All the manipulators would have to do is hammer the $VIX back below 20, and drive the $SPX to resistance at 4705 level, to win today, and that could still happen.   

My computer just froze, and crashed, in the middle of this update, so it looks like I'll be building a new rig this Christmas, and updating to windows 10. 

Oil - I also called the top on Oil yesterday 

#Oil looks like it'a ready to slide again pic.twitter.com/WybVtZN2Ox

— Veteran Market Timer (@3Xtraders) December 16, 2021

Watch for the $USO to pull back to the 40 area, and the 200 day is also support. 

Then we could be looking at a nice Santa Claus rally in Energy.  

$USO - Chart continues to work like a charm, regardless of Bloomberg's false reporting. 

I'm just now checking the st $SOX chart, and amazingly that chart is also still working. That's 3 for 3! 

 One other thing I noticed, but didn't alert to in my twitter, was the $GLD looking like it could be on the verge of a breakout.

$GLD - without haven't to even look at the chart, I can tell you that it was testing the 200 day. More accurately put, it was being sold at the 200 day. Not sure if that's bullish consolidation or actual resistance, but it's definitely something worth watching! 

I feel like I may be missing something, but I'm about out of time. 

The next normal trading day is going to be Jan. 3th, as the first trading day of the year, falls on a Monday, and if I don't see you again until then, Merry Christmas, and Happy New Year!   

AA 

Market Update 12/16/21 - Taking a closer look at Chinese stocks

 We saw China down again yesterday, as the $FXI washed out to a fresh new - yearly - low, so I decided to take a closer look at the charts.  

I've revised the EW count to wave 5, of C, and that would conclude a year long bear market. Previously I thought it may continue to consolidate in wave 4, but it looks like that concluded, back in Oct. 

This presents the best trading opportunity we've seen since the covid crash. 

I don't want you to miss it, so I've added the chart to the public charts area, and the 3X bull $YINN is in play.  

$FXI (China) - wave 4 conclused in Oct, in an expanding triangle pattern. Now we see wave 5 finish a - sub divided - 5 wave move. This chart has already been added to the public charts area. 

Funny, the Heng Seng is not making new recent lows, while chinese stocks trading in US markets are,,,? I'd say the talk of Chinese stocks being delisted is being put out there by the short sellers; It's propaganda.   

Meanwhile Goldman, and JP Morgan are seeing things my way! 

Wall Street Gets Increasingly Bullish on China as Goldman strategists join JPMorgan in bullish call on China

bloomberg 

Good Luck, and Happy (early) New Year China, 

AA 

Market Update - ahead of another FOMC meeting

 It's been a week since my last update, and the market has move exactly as I predicted. Looks like we're at, or close to a tradable pullback, after last weeks tremendous rally, which I also predicted. 

I think when I did the last update, I hadn't even taken into account today's fed announcement, but also didn't know the debt limit was going to be raised this week.   

U.S. Congress approves boosting debt limit to $31.4 trillion (reuters)

The Fed statement should be a nothing-burger, as they continue to drag their feet, in order to prop up the market up, going into the end of the year. The market is going to get some clarity, and that's going to cause volatility to wane, and that's going to lift equities. And besides that, it's already short covering season, with Dec. OPEX on Friday, and Christmas coming fast!   

I've added a new $VIX chart to the public charts area, with a cycle calendar, so you can see how I expect things to play out, going all the way into 2022.  

Of course I'd like to see the gap left behind on the $VIX @ 27 fill, but I'm afraid that might have to wait until next year. 

We've seen Tech lead the declines - which was a nice change - and the DOW hold up nicely.

$SOX (the tech leader) - is still trending up. This is the only market that matters to the manipulators. 

The Dow is at support - as it has pulled back to the breakout point. 

$NatGas - Not sure I mentioned in the last update, that the bulls were shaken out below the 200 day moving average, but what they probably missed is that NatGas continues to be bought at the 50 week ma. 

I'm thinking pro shorts pulled this stunt, and have already loaded the boat.

$NatGas - resistance at 4.21, and 4.93

China Pulled back, and since the news seems to be more bearish than ever, and that's the best time for short covering, I like that sector. 

Financials also look pretty good here, and especially if we get a surprise .25 rate hike today. 

$JPM  - Bear flag breaks. Finds support, pulls back and builds a base. I like it. 

That's about it for today.

Good luck, and Happy Holidays! 

AA 

  

 

Short Sellers Caught In A Bear Trap And Squeezed, As Predicted

 Everything turned out, just as I've been predicting it would, for - what is it - going on 2 weeks now? 

So it's good to be right again, and on so many counts; from the bottom in tech stocks I spotted on Friday afternoon, to yesterday's rip-your-face-off rally, which started in Germany. I'm not going to reveal my $DAX chart, but the catalyst was the swearing in of the new German Chancellor, something the liberal media would never report, because they feel it's their duty to promote feminists like Angela Merkel, no matter how repulsive, and unpopular, they may be. It's no wonder Germany celebrated.with a massive relief rally!  

Isn't it funny how the lame stream media, didn't report the rally in tech stocks until yesterday, and they failed to mention that the QQQ's found support at the 50 day moving average - something that is so obvious, that anyone looking at the technicals should've been able to see it. 

Looks like a nice bullish backtest... ahead of the holidays. Typical

— Veteran Market Timer (@3Xtraders) December 2, 2021

I was also right on Airline stocks, and biotech - too many things to mention. 

But now what? Well considering that next Friday is Dec. OPEX, and that most Options expire worthless, I think this rally can continue into this Friday, and sell-off into the next. 

Tech should not continue leading the way higher - as I pointed out yesterday. 

The sell-off in energy, and China, along with several other sectors, led the pullback, and if there's going to be a convincing and sustainable snap-back rally, we're going to need to see those sectors lead... 

#NatGas looks kind of oversold, after Monday's little shakeout below the 200 day ma. Another obvious case of market manipulation.  It also sold off just beyond the Fibonacci target. It's trading at support, and we could see holiday short covering  

$UNG - sold short below the 200 day. 

Timing is always difficult. We could see tech stocks remain pinned in the top end of the range, going into the end of the week. 

I want to show you how traders - returning from the Hanukkah break - manipulated leveraged funds in order to facilitate a 3% rally in tech stocks. 

$WEBL (3X Leveraged DOW Internet stocks Bull)  - you didn't even know I watch this one. 

Gaps back up above the lower pattern line, after shaking out most retail traders. This was definitely engineered. 

There is another 3X fund I was seeing the same thing on yesterday, but can't seem to find it, right now.

QQQ - Of course the Q's aren't leveraged, but the manipulation is blatant, as it was propped back up above the upper channel line. The annotation should read "rigged", not repaired.  

$INDU - We also saw the bid raised above the the sell target on the DOW 

The $NDX was jacked above the 20 day ma.

I don't like the level of manipulation, or the big gaps up. Screams too far too fast, and short sellers buying, rather than money managers. 

As long as the $VIX is trading in the 20's, it's best to remain cautious 

I'm seeing some evidence of a wave 4, so don't be surprised if we see a retest of the lows in certain sectors, and even a flash-crash in tech.  

I've removed a bunch of charts, from the public charts area, and returned the short term $SOX chart, since that one actually retested the highs. 4000 seems to be the target on that one.

It's just too much work to keep updating so many charts I don't even use. 

Watch the $SPX 4700 level. We tested is once already 

Opening bell has already rang, and I'm out of time.

Take Care, AA 

Market Update 12/7/21 - The Rally Continues

 Looks like this rally - the one I called Friday - in real time - might have legs. We haven't seen any follow-through in a long time, but Dec is a window dressing month, and that's the only reason the fed continues to drag it's feet. 

We're seeing Europe up big, and Germany up 2%, so that's helping lift US futures. Is this due to lower energy prices? Funny you don't hear Bloomberg talking up Natural Gas anymore. I'll be covering commodities in a separate update, by the way.   

The Dow - is trading back above 35k. Watch resistance @ the 50 day. If it breaks out.... then that becomes the stop.

I didn't realize it until this morning, but the Dow bottomed at precisely 34k!  Can the Dow trade to 40k+, before the end of the year? This chart says, "yes". 

$SPX - breaks out above 4545 (support), after last weeks test of the 50 day moving average.  

As bullish as the above chart patterns look, I can't seem to figure out which sectors would lead that kind of rally. Big tech bounced off the 50 day moving average, with most everything else, but I don't see the $NDX breaking out, and leading the $SPX, to new highs.   

Energy maybe? 

$XOP looks like a pullback in the middle of an irrational wave "E". As explosive as this could be, it won't lift the broader market much. 

We also saw this breakout in Oil and Gas drillers, as seen on the $OIH chart, located in the public charts area 

Mining stocks? 

I'm still waiting for Gold, and precious metals, to snapback, and seems to be taking forever, but some of the gold miners seem poised to snapback.  

$AEM 

China - I think everyone is bearish China at this point. 

$FXI - looks like it could rally into the new year, in a continuing wave 4. Target looks like the 200 day ma. 

Certain financials are also poised to lead, and that could help lift the market in a big way. 

After all the talk about inflation, supply lines, and the fed raising rates, the home builders have broke out to new all time highs. Pull the $ITB chart up for yourself. 

The $VIX has already broke 3 levels of support, and 30 becomes the line in the sand again. 

I still have a lot of charting to do, and still don't really trust this rally, until we see more follow-through, but it looks pretty strong this morning.   

Good Luck, AA 

Market Update 12/6 - Weekly wrap-up, and look at the week ahead

Can't say I could've predicted that tech would've sold off on a Friday, during a holiday (Hanukkah), but it is what it is. Profit taking.  

I thought I'd draw up a fresh NASDAQ chart after Friday's pullback to a slightly lower low, and this is this is what I came up with: 

$COMPQ (NASDAQ) - the chart definitely adds weight to my bullish view, going into 2022. 

The QQQ'a actually just tested the 50 day ma, so it could be that the sellers are going by that, rather than the underlying index, and there was much heavier volume on the $QQQ's. 

If this were a normal market, I might hypothesize that the Energy bulls were forced to liquidate tech stocks, in order to cover their margin calls, but we haven't really seen any panic selling. In fact once they were done selling energy, which started on a Black Friday holiday, they sold tech Thursday, and Friday, during Hanukkah, because they knew nobody would want to get short, going into the weekend, but it was also a good opportunity for the bulls to lever their tech positions, by buying the leveraged $FAANG bear $FNGD, which also saw heavy volume. 

We did see the $VIX break out to ridiculous levels, and that kind of freaked me out, but once I started digging around, I found that the level on the $VIX, was not justified. I mean we've only seen tiny market moves, over the past few weeks; nothing that justifies a 35 handle on the $VIX.  

I found several key FAANG stocks to be bottoming out.... 

$FB (FaceBook) for instance - tweeted this alert Friday afternoon 

#Facebook is at my buy target. #FAANG #Stocks pic.twitter.com/uxijUJJS3k

— Veteran Market Timer (@3Xtraders) December 3, 2021

    

$VIX ($VVIX) - called the top on the $VIX Friday afternoon as well, and added the chart to the public charts area. 

Wasn't able to upload that chart until after a reboot. That was a little nerve-wracking. 

I usually chart a market reversal using shorter term charts, and even a 5 minute chart will usually trade into a little ending triangle, as selling momentum slows, but this time was different. I didn't feel the need to stress myself out trying to find the absolute bottom, when I could see the $VIX topping out.  

Anyhow, I'm reiterating the "All Clear", and expect to rally into Dec. OPEX, as the $VIX Pulls back to the 26.50 level, before breaking down to fill the gap left behind around the 21 area. Maybe that takes until the end of the year? Money get's put to work on the 1st Monday of the month, and that's today. If it's delayed by a day - because Hanukkah doesn't officially end until this evening - then technical Tues.    

The broader marker should continue to trade into the same broadening pattern we've been watching for months now, and the breakout point on the DOW is 35.1 (again). Support is the 200 day ma. ST resistance is 35,288 (at the 50 day ma).  If you need other targets, I'm available for freelance work. 

Not the best chart view, but good enough.... and I don't really have time to update it 

I have at least 100 hrs hours of charting to do, just in order to get caught up. If you care to reward me for the effort... there's a paypal button in the left side menu. 

Take Care, AA 

Market Update 12/3/2021 - They Almost Managed to Break the Bull Market, and Oil down another 3%

 $VIX is back down below 30.25, so I'm giving the "all clear" again, after yesterday's little head-fake, where we saw a little dip at the open, followed by the short sellers being blind-sided by a 700 point rally. I was away from my desk for the reversal, but we've seen this, plenty of times before. 

Throughout this entire selloff, I can't imagine how the bears made any money, unless they sold energy, China, and Biotech, 2 of which I recommended weeks ago. More on that in a minute  

Oil dips another 3%

Bloomberg was seen reporting that Oil had "PLUNGED", on some Russian (sell the rumor) story, so you know the people behind the scenes are, once again, helping to generate (panic) hype, just as they did when Oil contracts fell below 0 - back when they were pushing a supposed oil war", between the Saudi's & Russia.    

Look, just because the Saudis, say something, doesn't make it true. Perhaps they were the ones shorting oil, and planning to buy the newly created Dubai index (the $UAE), at a big discount ($7.59)!  Maybe it was Goldman Sachs, and the rest of the protected Federal reserve banking system? I suspect we'll never know.... 

Looking back at recent oil crashes 

The collapse in oil prices in 2020 wasn't even blamed for the broader 2020 market route, covid was. In the same way, sub-prime mortgage market was blamed for the crash of 07-08, instead of the real culprit, "mark to market" accounting, and another route in a heavily pumped oil market. 

And when they were finished crashing the market, all they had to do was throw a few trillion dollars at the problem, and tell the banks to "buy stocks", and more importantly end mark to market... and the rest is history!   

The Saudi/Ruddia Oil Price War Historic Blunder #1 Forbes 

Getting back to the current rigged market 

Yesterday morning I noticed that the Oil $VIX had pierced the 100 level, and as if that wasn't ridiculous enough, it was pierced again, at yesterday's open. I suppose Bloomberg's fake headline helped... 

Oil $VIX  

This morning we only see Oil up 3%, but before long we're going to see who's swimming in the pool naked (out of the money shorts), as the great Art Cashin used to say, and probably still says. I just haven't seen him for a while, since I stopped watching CNBC. 

Oil $VIX 100 target reminds me of the so called, "Covid Crash", where traders were trying to squeeze the $VIX shorts out at 100, which ended in an epic fail, because the $VIX had already overshot the 80 target @ 85.47, but I digress.   

They Almost Managed to Break the Bull Market

After yesterday's closing bell. I was reviewing some longer term charts, and deleting some broken bullish chart views - I've been saving - and I found this: 

The market was actually seen breaking key long term support on Wed., and this caused the panic we've recently seen in the $VIX. 

Tweeted - and hopefully you can see the charts on these embedded tweets. The pink line actually broke, but has since recovered. This was a close call, and I'm sure a stop-out for some. 

It's no wonder the $VIX spiked yesterday. The market was breaking... pic.twitter.com/TZwxbpgyjE

— Veteran Market Timer (@3Xtraders) December 2, 2021

So it was a good little shakeout, but a little too close for comfort 

More evidence of $VIX market Manipulation 

Someone on Twitter found strong evidence of $VIX manipulation, you might be interested in, and if you can fully understand the process that was used.... please fill me in! I'm not an options expert.   

We have identified an unusual $VIX split that expires on December 22, 2021 with a strike price of $40.00.

7,610 CALL contracts with a price of $1.83 (Above Ask) were purchased at a $1,392,630 premium.

— Quant Data (@QuantData) December 2, 2021

 Adding the $DAX to yesterday's bullish market indicators  

The $DAX took out the 50 week moving average target, I alerted to earlier in the week.  

I think one of the best trades coming up, would be the oversold oil market, so I'm going to be adding this 30 min. chart. 

Weather or not we see the market continue to rally today, is debatable. I think it probably needs to consolidate, before breaking higher, and especially on this weekly OPEX Friday. It probably all depends on who sold energy markets. If it was the Saudies, and/or Russia, then all they need to do is release more bearish stories, and dump more oil on the market. 

Another story you may not have heard is that Biden has opened up Oil and gas leasing in the gulf, breaking another campaign promise, and enduring global warming.    

US auctions off oil and gas drilling leases in Gulf of Mexico after climate talks theguardian 

Good luck next week, AA 

  

Market Update 12/2/21 - Here's something mind blowing!

This morning I'm getting an early start, and busy updating the charts, after yesterday's little shakeout.

 It was unusual to see the market whipsaw in the middle of the day, but I did alert to the market weakness at the open, as well as the ridiculous 3% rally on the $SOX, which traded into an upturned triangle patter, before giving it all back. 

$SOX - (the chart below was added to the public charts area after yesterday's open). 

See the upturned triangle in purple. that was obviously sold yesterday. I also found a bearish H&S pattern - this morning - and you can see where the right shoulder was sold. There's a lot going on, on this chart; too many things to mention, and although I could explain how to trade this pattern, I just don't have time to teach folks how to trade. This is something you need to learn on your own, and eventually it has to become second nature. For example: If you don't know what to do, when the neckline on a bearish H&S pattern breaks, then you have some homework to do. \

One interesting thing on this chart - that you may not have noticed - is the grey price line, showing how much more the $SPX has sold off, when compared to the $SOX, and as I've been saying for years, until the $SOX crashes, you won't see anything close to a real market crash. This was the key to not getting overly bearish in '08, and even most recently during the so called "Covid crash", which was only used as an excuse to print more money, but I digress.   

$INDU - The DOW - Looks like the dow did not want to trade as I has imagined, yet the pattern remains intact.  

Note: This is the wave "4" count, I was referring to the other day. And I should really move this short term chart to the 1st page, in the public charts area. 

The Updated Chart (below): 

This is great, because it shows how a chart can change...! Now. I'm seeing a right shoulder target, of 35.1, and if you remember, that was the previous breakout point, back in Oct. 2. Seeing a larger right shoulder target @ 35.6, which coincides with a perfect FIB retracement! Yeah, I still get excited over chart patterns lol 

One longer term outlook

One longer term outlook, it that we trade into the right shoulder, and see a much stronger pullback into the lower end of the larger broadening pattern, and that might look something like this. 

Same chart - updated -   

As you can see these broadening top patterns can be difficult to predict, and even more difficult to trade, and if you don't know advanced Elliott wave theory, you'll be lost....  1. Because the waves count A-B-1, A-B-2, etc. 2. Because Wave 4 is allowed to overshoot the wave 2 pullback area, and that usually rules out wave 4, according to EW rules, and guidelines. 

Now here's something mind blowing! 

I've been pointing to this upturned megaphone pattern - on the major indices - for a while now, and you'll find the same thing on the BRENT crude chart, I tweeted out yesterday! 

Think I may have to raise my target on #BRENT crude #Oil. These broadening top patterns are pretty reliable pic.twitter.com/rXkVvPmQeo

— Veteran Market Timer (@3Xtraders) December 1, 2021

Looks back at Yesterday's trade 

My takeaway from yesterday's action is that the algos were pre-programmed to sell the omicron news, or was it in anticipation of Joe Biden's comments, and more possible lock-downs?  Anyhow, we saw the market retest the recent lows, as well as a little breakout on the $VIX, and this is highly unusual heading into the beginning of a new month, because the $VIX usually doesn't make a new high at the end of any month, only to go higher, at the start of the next month. Pull up a monthly view of the $VIX and you'll see what I'm talking about! 

 Speaking of the monthly $VIX - the line in the sand becomes $VIX 30 after yesterday's little overshoot

$VIX - monthly view - 

I'm seeing this news this morning: Biden to Announce New Virus Plan as Omicron Reaches U.S. (nytimes)

yet futures are up 300 points again, after taking out our Dow target yesterday. This is bullish technical signal, if the DOW gaps back above the 200 day, regardless of any news.   

NatGas - saw another little shakeout yesterday, but not nearly as bad as I had feared, as been known to happen when the price action falls out of the bottom of a down-turned triangle pattern, but I've since updated the pattern to a channel, or a bull flag, and yesterday, we saw a bullish hammer painted on the chart. You can find that chart in my twitter feed, and I'll probably be tweeting out natgas updates again today. 

The NatGas futures  are an interesting read. Shows a right shoulder (on a bearish H&S pattern) sold, followed by a neckline sold. This is where the short sellers are supposed to take profits. 

So, 2 very different charts, and broken support... but like I said, this is where the pro shorts typically take profits.   

$GLD Gold 

Looking for a gap fill - at least - and this is going to help lift commodities, along with Oil. 

 

And of course I still love China, and Biotech, and anything else, that's been beaten up. 

Looking at the calendar: 

1. Weekly OPEX tomorrow - I think as bearish as most traders are at this point,  the bears cannot win on their over-priced Put options. Also, who in their right mind would want to go short into a weekend. 

2. Money gets put to work next week. See #1   

3. Monthly OPEX is coming fast, and you can bet the smart money has already been loading up on Calls. 

4. Hanukkah comes early this year, and that means plenty of short covering, ahead of Dec. 18th. 

5. Volatility is bound to come way down as we trade into another holiday, and the $VIX chart agrees.  

6. The Fed is all talk and no action 

7. There is no scientific evidence that the new Covid variant is anything but mild. It's another case of mass media induced mass hysteria.    

Take Care, AA