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Sunday, October 13, 2024

China Looks Exactly Like the 2007 - 2008 Crash - aka The Great Recession + Earnings Season, and an Important Mystery Chart Discovery Tesla $TSLA

First the China trade, and how the recent short squeeze looks exactly like 2007 - just before the financial collapse got under way - and that presents some great opportunities for anyone who is able to trade it, going forward. 
 
China rallied into a short squeeze on stimulus hopes, only to crash 10%, and this is exactly what we saw at the beginning of the financial crises in the US in 2007.

 
I'm up 30% in Oct, after catching that massive reversal, but after a couple big moves like this, you typically see a lot of sideways consolidation.  

The truth is 90% of traders are gamblers, who are looking to chase the next rally, wherever it may be, but they lack any charting skills. You see them ask me for advice all the time, and I simply block most of them, because if you have to ask me if you should short oil (for instance), then you are only asking for trouble. 

If you're inexperienced then you should start by trading something less volatile... although in today's market volatility can turn on a dime, as we recently saw in China. 
 
Earnings Season Kicks Off 

Earnings season kicked off on Friday, with Financials, and in all the excitement that part of the equation didn't present itself front and center, in my mind. 

If I had been charting Financials, I might have seen the breakout coming earlier, but better late than never. 
 
25 min. before Friday's opening bell: 
 

Financials broke out, or should I say, "the retail bears got caught in a bear trap again?" This is what holiday trading is all about; trapping the short sellers. 

In hindsight my market outlook was spot on when I pinned this tweet to my X timeline: 
 

There was also a bear trap set on the leveraged financial bear ETFs. 

Speaking of bear traps: Spotted this one in Tesla, which closed lower on Friday, just ahead of  Tech earnings 

The everything bubble continues. 
 
I had planned to reveal an important chart discovery, but I'm already out of time. 

Take care, and beware of the financial scammers on the X platform, posing as Trump supporters. 
 
 
 
 AA





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Saturday, September 21, 2024

Yet Another Awesome Trading Week in Tech Stocks & Gold miners - on the long awaited FOMC pivot - ends with an Explosive 15% Move in Natural Gas

Week before OPEX was great trading - read all about it - and low and behold; if this week wasn't just as good, thanks to the Federal reserve's big rate cut.

This was one of the best trading opportunities I've seen on a Fed announcement, since I started doing this - 15 years ago - but the ability to trade something like this accurately, only comes from much experience, and due diligence.  

I even called out the trades, ahead of time: 

1. Gold Miners

 Not only did I get the trade right, but I sold the breakout, for a killer swing trade:

I even warned traders - to sell the relief rally - ahead of time


2. Tech Stocks (I actually called out this trade several times because it was so gd obvious)

Lessons to learn from all this: 

  1. Market's can remain irrational for longer than you might think...
  2. Stay nimble
  3. Don't Fight the Fed
  4. (almost) Never attempt to sell into options expiration (Friday)

Of course most sectors remained pinned into - yet another rigged - Options Expiration, as we have seen so many times before, but one (big) exception to that rule, turned out to be in Natural Gas!

Friday's incredible 15% move in Natural Gas Goes Unreported  

I did give some hints to the latest moves in Nat Gas, but if you think I'm giving away my Natural Gas targets, you are about to be sorely disappointed... These are million dollar charts, and I'm not sharing. In fact half the reason I even bother blogging anymore, is to document my great success.

I did give out a lot of information, but unless you were paying close attention, you most likely missed it but there's much in depth analysis, I'm not giving away. If the hedge funds want my help they should make me a decent offer. I don't work for free, and their trolls get blocked.   

 More on Oil, in a moment, but first:

To Document the winning NatGas Trade - as of late  

 First I documented the bullish trend on NatGas


Then, I called a short term top in NatGas. Some might call this setting the bear trap, but the bears should know better [omitted expert technical analysis]... 

 

Then I called the reversal in NatGas

I did post a few short term Natural Gas charts; the following one confirmed the trend was still higher. 

 

Of course most retail short sellers in Natural Gas can't even read a chart, let alone trade something as volatile as Natural Gas, while at the same time trading several other markets.  

 The Bottom in Oil 

The only reason I mention the oil trade is that Oil & NatGas seem to run hand in hand, but I also want to point out how easy it can be to call a market bottom as the most recent bottom in Oil was. 

This one was easier than most 

To Document 

Sept 9th $66

Bottom was confirmed more than once 

 I even sent the White House a friendly reminder to refill the Strategic Petroleum Reserve

Of course I make this all look easy, but I tweet hundreds of charts per week, and even that is only 10% of what I'm seeing, on any given day.

As usual I'm not going to tell you what comes next, but I can tell you that my 401k money remains sidelined, until I see better opportunities. 

Fake News networks, reporting New market highs, and other nonsense, is only good for headline risk.

 Take Care, AA


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Saturday, September 14, 2024

Another Awesome Trading Week! 401k Money Put to Work

 Another Awesome Trading Week

The market played right into our hands again this week, as Semiconductors led a massive broader market rally on Wednesday, at precisely the target I offered in the last 2 blog updates. 

Documented 


Results

By Friday's close the market had rallied 1400 points off the target. Not a bad week. 

Of course Semiconductors led most of that rally, and that's where the real money was made 

By Friday's close the $SOX had in fact rallied nearly to the target 

401k Money was Put to Work on Sept 6th

So, in hindsight I've been absolutely killing it lately! 

I think the market can even go a little higher here, as investors are supposedly pricing in a super-sized rate cut - ahead of next FOMC announcement - but I want to reduce risk, ahead of that news. 

In a shaky market like this it can be hard to predict past a week, or 2, and charts can change in as little as 1 day, as we've seen over the past couple Monday morning surprises. 

At the end of the day, Friday short squeezes, and relief rallies are a dime a dozen, and when we see normally rational investors running to the safety of Gold, that should raise red flags.     

This is not an ordinary market, or a healthy market.

Of course the enemy of the people - the lame stream media - will point to rallies like this week, and try to convince you of exactly the opposite. 

Don't believe it


Take Care 

    


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Monday, September 9, 2024

What's Wrong With This Market?

 

What's Wrong With This Market

This blog is a second take on what I find unrecognizable in the current market, from markets past.

You can find my first take on this topic, plus an important market update, linked 

1. Tech is no longer leading the broader market. In fact, recently we've seen defensive sectors - such as utilities & healthcare - leading... and that has gone mostly unreported.

2. Not only are tech stocks no longer leading, but neither is the $SPX... 

The $NYSE, and even the Dow Jones broke out to new all time highs, while the $SPX could barely keep it's head above water. Not to mention, the Dow seems to rally every time the Nasdaq sells off.

I have my own theories as to why that may be, but I don't have time to get into here.     

3. Transportation stocks no longer lead the Dow Jones. This goes to Dow Theory   investopedia.com 

In fact transports have been trending lower for the past 3 years, as the Dow continues to make new all time highs.

You'll find my pullback target for the Dow Jones linked 

4. Gold and Crypto markets are influencing the broader market, to a greater extent. I can't tell you for sure if the fear of a collapse of the $USD is real, or not, but that seems to be the story fueling the recent action in Gold, and the Crypto market frenzy.     

5.  The recent Volatility - as represented by the $VIX - is off the chart!

$VIX hitting 65 in one day/week - as we recently saw  is something we have never seen before! The closest thing we saw to this was during the covid crash, but even that was more contained...

This phenomenon can easily be explained by the Volmageddon Trade, but still this is nothing investors have ever had to deal with in the past.

See: Volmageddon and the Failure of Short Volatility Products (Summary) rpc.cfainstitute.org

6. The absence of bullish market capitulation points. Meaning the weak hands are no longer shaken out.That is a fundamental shift, we've never seen before. It could be that because the markets are now mostly controlled by the machines, and machines don't experience fear, there is no longer panic selling.    

 I think one of the biggest things to change in the (broader) market, is the fact that we no longer see bearish sentiment peak out. There is no capitulation point.Only engineered pullbacks, followed by short squeezes.

Meanwhile the market continues to trade into the biggest bubble in our lifetimes. 

7. Global markets are outpacing US markets; India, Japan (before the crash). Again, money fleeing US markets.

What Is a Carry Trade, and How Did a Small Rate Hike in Japan Just Trigger a Global Sell-Off? Aug 5. 2024 - The Motley Fool

 As aforementioned, I think a lot of the funny market action we're seeing is do to the fact that machines are running the market, but also excess liquidity has to go somewhere - Crypto, Japan, even India - not to mention Russian investor money finding it's way into foreign markets. On top of all that we have daily options, being used to drive the $VIX, and the rest of the highly manipulated options market.  

 I think maybe someday we may get back to more normal/stable markets, but not until after a major collapse, and possibly the entire collapse of the global financial system. 

Take Care, AA

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Saturday, September 7, 2024

Something is Different About This Market. Stunning news! NYSE $SPX $VIX Dow Jones Nasdaq $NDX $NVDA Palantir $PLTR

 Something Is Different About This Market

 I started writing this update over the Labor Day weekend, and I'm just finishing it up nearly a week later. 

I have been offering more micro blogs on on the X platform

For Example:

I also continue to make some excellent calls in real time, as I did on Friday. 

I called a (market bearish) reversal on the $VIX after giving the market a quick read: 

 

More on the $VIX in a minute, but as you probably know the $VIX no longer trades like it used to, but I suspect the bears have discovered new ways to drive the $VIX, when they need to...  if this was not the case, the 15 minute chart wouldn't have worked so perfectly, as it did on Friday.

$NVDA 

I think most everyone including the lame stream media  knew the bears were planning to take Nvidia down.

 

I even got crude oil, and gold, right this week. Sad thing is, I've probably blocked 90% of the folks who used to follow me, because I don't need any distractions, when managing 5 accounts at once.  

I suppose people think - that after 15 years - trading is easy for me, but believe me, this market still puts me through my paces! I'll spare you the details....

 There's Something Different About This Market

The short list: 

1. Of course, The $VIX, which I already mentioned. What I find equally amazing as the recent $VIX action, is that the lame stream media pretends that the $VIX hitting 65 in one day is normal, routine.    

2. The (tech heavy) Nasdaq is no longer leading... in fact the Nasdaq continues to trade below where it was, before the recent yen carry trade unwind, which erased nearly the entire summer rally, and in hindsight looks like a summer swoon

3. Not only is the Nasdaq no longer leading, but neither is the $SPX!

a. The Dow makes all time highs.

b. The NYSE continues to breakout to all time highs.

 

c. Even the $TSX (Canada) continued to make new all time highs.

Update: The $SPX only made a slightly higher closing high, before the rug was pulled on Tuesday - the day after Labor Day 

Market Update: I'm not into giving away free targets any more, but I can offer you the obvious target on the Dow, because most folks don't even consider trading the Dow. 

Dow Jones Industrial Average  - a simple gap (fill) target. 


    

4. I think one of the biggest things to change in the (broader) market, is the fact that we no longer see bearish sentiment peak out. There is no capitulation point.Only engineered pullbacks, followed by short squeezes. 

Even at $VIX 65, sentiment indicators only reached mildly bearish, and this is one of the reasons I prefer to trade things like #Crypto, and commodities, because we actually do see sentiment reach extremes, and that's because the government has no reason to prop up Oil, and Bitcoin, as they do US equities markets.

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