Something Is Different About This Market
I started writing this update over the Labor Day weekend, and I'm just finishing it up nearly a week later.
I have been offering more micro blogs on on the X platform
For Example:
1. Jerome Powell's speech in Jackson Hole was used as an excuse to continue driving stocks to new all time highs, but investors are clearly pricing in more than the few rate cuts the Fed is forecasting.
— Veteran Market Timer (@3Xtraders) August 24, 2024
2. This - going on 2 years - rally could also be looked at as the market's… pic.twitter.com/R3ozZKRUaq
I also continue to make some excellent calls in real time, as I did on Friday.
I called a (market bearish) reversal on the $VIX after giving the market a quick read:
And that's how you read the $VIX, children. https://t.co/0ndwwHDb0T
— Veteran Market Timer (@3Xtraders) September 6, 2024
More on the $VIX in a minute, but as you probably know the $VIX no longer trades like it used to, but I suspect the bears have discovered new ways to drive the $VIX, when they need to... if this was not the case, the 15 minute chart wouldn't have worked so perfectly, as it did on Friday.
$NVDA
I think most everyone including the lame stream media knew the bears were planning to take Nvidia down.
Warned investors to sell $NVDA 5 days ago #NVIDIA https://t.co/antQOctTN9
— Veteran Market Timer (@3Xtraders) September 4, 2024
I even got crude oil, and gold, right this week. Sad thing is, I've probably blocked 90% of the folks who used to follow me, because I don't need any distractions, when managing 5 accounts at once.
I suppose people think - that after 15 years - trading is easy for me, but believe me, this market still puts me through my paces! I'll spare you the details....
There's Something Different About This Market
The short list:
1. Of course, The $VIX, which I already mentioned. What I find equally amazing as the recent $VIX action, is that the lame stream media pretends that the $VIX hitting 65 in one day is normal, routine.
2. The (tech heavy) Nasdaq is no longer leading... in fact the Nasdaq continues to trade below where it was, before the recent yen carry trade unwind, which erased nearly the entire summer rally, and in hindsight looks like a summer swoon
3. Not only is the Nasdaq no longer leading, but neither is the $SPX!
a. The Dow makes all time highs.
b. The NYSE continues to breakout to all time highs.
c. Even the $TSX (Canada) continued to make new all time highs.
Update: The $SPX only made a slightly higher closing high, before the rug was pulled on Tuesday - the day after Labor Day
Market Update: I'm not into giving away free targets any more, but I can offer you the obvious target on the Dow, because most folks don't even consider trading the Dow.
Dow Jones Industrial Average - a simple gap (fill) target.
4. I think one of the biggest things to change in the (broader) market,
is the fact that we no longer see bearish sentiment peak out. There is
no capitulation point.Only engineered pullbacks, followed by short
squeezes.
Even at $VIX 65, sentiment indicators only
reached mildly bearish, and this is one of the reasons I prefer to trade
things like #Crypto, and commodities, because we actually do see
sentiment reach extremes, and that's because the government has no
reason to prop up Oil, and Bitcoin, as they do US equities markets.
Of course retail investors are supposed to focus on Tech stocks, and more specifically, "the chip sector", as CNBC falsely reports that last week was the worst week - for that sector - in 2 years.
Example: Let's compare last weeks pullback, to the absolute bloodbath we saw - in the chip sector - in July.
Getting back to the Yen Carry unwind
I have some stunning news for you on that front!
1. The $YEN Carry unwind may have been a shot across the bow, but it was not the beginning of a larger crash.
How do I know this?
a. Because, as I stated above, several markets continued to make new highs. Of course the geniuses who think they can time the market, using only an $SPX chart, will argue that the market didn't make new all time highs, but the perma-bears can argue with the charts.
b. Japan isn't crashing
2. Both retail investors, and institutional investors bought the dip, but not for the reasons you might think.
Not only were Defensive Sectors, such as Utilities, Healthcare, and even Gold, and gold miners, snapped up, but also dip buyers in tech, and certain stocks - which continue to be driven to new recent highs.
Example: Palantir Technologies $PLTR - There was more good news released on Friday - after the bell - and shares were seen up another 9% in after hours trading.