Happy New Year 2024 Market Wrapup

 Happy New Year 2024 Wrap-up

First off, I'm happy to have been absolutely right all year; including being right about Trump's historic comeback/ win in Nov. Of course the always wrong legacy media was wrong as usual, and you don't see them celebrating... 

I was also right on markets being driven to new all time highs, in order to save Joe Biden's legacy, and to make Trump look like a fool, when the everything rally/ liquidity bubble implodes.

Since the Trump win we've seen some giveback in several sectors, but much of the selling has to do with the fact that several sectors were pumped to new all time highs, including the Dow - to 45,000 - before EOY profit taking.Of course you would've hardly even noticed this (profit taking), if all you watch is the $SPX, which continues to be carefully balanced using certain overweight stocks/ holdings. 

For comparison sake, take a look at the sell-off on the $NYSE over just the past 2 weeks.  

New York Stock Exchange  - Note: I haven't updated the chart since November.

A Year of Massive Sector Rotations

We've also seen a lot of money come out of Energy stocks - since November - which has been the market makers MO for the past couple years. They are forced to raise money by selling one sector, in order to drive another sector higher.

At one point back in October the market pumping legacy media was trying to convince investors that this was a "broad market rally", but that narrative quickly dried up once Small Caps, and Airlines rolled over.  

CNBC hosts like to call this a bifurcated market. It's what I call a whac-a-mole markets. The market has been carefully subdivided, so that it can be systematically rigged, a few sectors at a time. 

 The latest pump job was a short squeeze to the 200 day moving average and a 2 year high in Natural Gas. 

 Comparing that 16% move to the latest short squeeze in Chinese stocks:

Natural Gas plummets 10% after a 1 day short squeeze, taking a play from the China playbook. $HSI #NatGas pic.twitter.com/AKd1VEGJEv

— Veteran Market Timer (@3Xtraders) December 31, 2024

 

It used to be enough to pump a couple sectors at a time, but today we see entire countries - such as China - routinely pumped and dumped, along with Crypto markets, and even Gold. 

Of course the financial fake news likes to celebrate each rally as a "historic milestone", yet they fail to mention the  markets which must be sacrificed in order to drive the next market rotation. In other words, the hosts of CNBC have no problem falsely declaring that small caps are leading a broad market rally, and leave the poor retail investor holding the bag.   

Here's a real time example of this using the $SPX 600 Small Caps weekly chart: 

Of course this is not all bad

 There is money to be made, swing-trading sectors, IF (and that's a big if) you can avoid all the minefields, and get ahead of the next trade. Of course this requires a lot of charting, and lately I was forced to add a crypto folder to my arsenal. Like it or not, AI and Crypto markets are helping to drive the tech heavy NASDAQ, and if you're still stuck trading the $SPX you're wasting your time. 

Rigged Markets Continue 

The $SPX is so hopelessly rigged, Chairman Powell had to come in and pull the rug on 2 futures interest rate cuts, in order to get a pullback, and this wasn't the first time the Fed has been blamed for a 1 day market correction. Remember the Carry Trade unwind, which amounted to a VIX 65 capitulation point! 

Proof that the market is rigged is the fact that the only fear during a $VIX 65 moment is the fear of missing out.

But the ultimate proof that the market is hopelessly rigged, is the fact that we no longer see bearish capitulation, because market volatility can be simply sold, using 0 day to Expiration Options.

Before the market was constantly rigging using 0 day (to Expire) Options , the $VIX was a pretty reliable indicator. Today the market cannot even correct, unless it's engineered, and bearish capitulation is a thing of the past . https://t.co/TZxupQiezS

— Veteran Market Timer (@3Xtraders) December 30, 2024

    

Of course part of this rushing in and panic buying every dip, is just part of the plan, which I started off talking about. The plan to drive markets to new all time highs, just in order to crash it.  

I'm afraid I don't have any good news for 2025

I see momentum holding the market up for the time being, and some snap-back rallies may already be in order, but I'm thinking that maybe by early summer global markets will be in free-fall.  

On the one hand it becomes utterly simple to just panic buy every dip, but rigged markets cannot just go on forever. We're actually in a far worse place than investors were in 1929. Market corrections are healthy. Liquidity bubbles always end disastrously.

— Veteran Market Timer (@3Xtraders) December 30, 2024

 

 Take Care, AA

 

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