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Tuesday, July 27, 2021

Market Update 7/27/2021 - China, the Federal Reserve meeting, and a guide to calling market reversals

Monday (yesterday), we saw some panic selling in Chinese markets, and this, after months of selling, so I'm looking for a final washout there - to signal maximum bearish sentiment - followed by a classic reversal pattern. If that sounds confusing to you, think back to the peak of the panic in oil markets, around the time covid was being blamed for the crash. Once everyone was bearish, and the headlines read, oil futures trade to $0, then you saw the reversal, and that was one of the easiest calls ever made.

Calling reversals in US markets is a lot easier, because we have several $VIX charts to guide us, but charting individual sectors, such as the Chinese Technology index, should be very helpful... 

The upcoming Federal Reserve Meeting could be a catalyst for a reversal in Chinese markets, because all the big US financials (friends of the corrupt fed) are counting on China to lead global growth. It's not Puppet dictators like Joe Biden selling us out to china, it's the banksters. It's the global financiers.   

First, let's take look at the broken $FXI China chart. This index is the most charted China index of all, but we're going to look at several... Not only do I chart several alternative chart views, but also alternative indices, and individual - related stocks. Here's one to keep an eye on BIDI (the Chinese google). 

$FXI (weekly view) - you can see where support broke on this chart overnight (Sun.), and that explains the huge gap down, to a key Fibonacci target, and the lower end of the parallel channel (seen in purple). I think we'll see prices stabilize here, before we see money put to work on the first Monday of August. 

$CZH (daily candlestick view) - 270 looks like support, and where you'll want to set a stop. Res on this chart at the 348 level.  

$BIDU - do buy bidu. It looks like it's trading in an oversold wave b, just below the previous low. It's a head-fake (shakeout), in other words. If I'm right; I'd expect it to test res at the highs of 2018, before the end of the year. (275 - 285 target)

$IQ - Chinese Internet took a big hit, and all the fake institutionally owned financial news outlets we're seen reporting that yesterday. News seems to be more than priced in at this point. Watch for the sector to find support at the lower end of my channel (in black), at $11. 

As far as the rest of the market: $SPX seems to be retesting the recent highs, while the $RUT continues to trade in a sideways range. Typical boring summer trading


I don't have time to proofread this update, until later, so pardon any errors, found within... 

Take care, and good luck 

Later, AA 

Friday, July 23, 2021

Market Update 7/23/21 - The most astounding chart of all!

Charts are working like a charm. No July sell-off, just as I predicted, weeks ago. 

Called the top on the $SPX last week, using the same piddly 30 min. chart we've been watching since calling the previous top... 

$SPX 30 min.: 

To be honest; I did see the possibility of a higher high (4429ish), on a 15 min chart, but IF we had seen that, I had advised that I would be "selling that target aggressively". No doubt the sell-off was an engineered bear raid, as evidenced by the way the bid was lowered - just below 4280 - at Monday's open. I didn't even realize this Monday morning, but I did alert to the bottom, based on where the $VIX was sold. 

$SPX - 15 min - revised: See where the market was taken down below my red line (breaking support). 

Of course the main stream media blamed the bond market, and covid variant "Delta", or China, or anything else they can dream up, for a one day sell-off.  

Now what? Now, I'd get defensive again, and I'd stay that way, unless, or until the $VIX can get back below 15, and continue lower. As long as the $VIX remains elevated, expect more volatility. 

What about oil? 

The short term trend remains down, and see all the gaps left behind, on the chart below? 

$UCO - I'd be watching to sell the 77.05, and 76.55, levels one this. Could pullback and test the 87.29 level, but that's not going to happen in 1 day. Try a couple weeks.... 

The most astounding chart of all?  

Euro Banks 

$FEZ - see where the price action bounced off my black line. That's no coincidence. Europe is going down, but not until the powers that be build some massive short positions. I think it could be several more months before we see the chart break. Could be that the Brexit deal falls apart, and turns into a trading war? Could be hyperinflation in Europe... which would force the Fed's hand, because the Fed (and the American tax payer) is now on the hook for the entire global financial system.  

Take Care, AA 

Tuesday, July 13, 2021

Market Update 7/13/21 - Technical Tuesday - Another "all time high", sold!

Technically: The $SPX touched another new all time high on Monday (yesterday), but it was only up a lousy 15 points. Momentum has slowed to a crawl, and that points to a top. Not sure if it's right here, but it's close, and you'll see what close means on the long term chart, at the bottom of this page.

$SPX rolls over. This is the 30 min chart we've been watching since last week. 

Several sectors continue to consolidate in sideways patterns, despite the occasional (rigged) higher high on the S&P, or NASDAQ. You don't see the NYSE breaking out to new highs.  

$RUT for instance: The Russell 2000 has been consolidating sideways for months. Kind of looks like a breakout above the upper purple (pattern) line. Maybe it'll retest the recent highs, before year end.   

But rather than chasing another breakout on the $RUT, I'd be looking to sell it, anywhere above the 240 level on the $IWM. 

For the time being: The market is being sold every time the $VIX breaks back above 16, and that should continue. Last week, I predicted more volatility, and we're already seeing it.  

I'm done with the Oil and Gas trades for a while, and back to picking stocks. Maybe take some time off, before traders return in Sept. I'm working on a couple new business prospects, and may give up blogging all together. I'll let you know in future updates. 

Long term charts look downright scary: 

The Dow: Has been looking toppy for several months, and could hold up for several more.  Don't chase the market here. The Dow has doubled since the (created in a lab) fake covid19 crisis, pullback. You can't fool Wall Street. It was clear after only 1 month, that Covid was not a real crises. I'm not denying that there was/is a virus, but it was no worse than a bad flu season. It was only used to justify more spending, and to keep populations confused, and in line, before the real crisis hits. 

$SPX - don't chase it. I don't care if it goes several hundred points higher, from here. 

Europe probably looks the worst, and the European banking system is only retesting the highs of 2007. 

Hope - pumped by not 1, but 3 business cable news shows, and fed stimulus has done nothing but prolong the inevitable.  Collapse of the global banking system is a certainty. Give it a year...

Take care, AA  

Friday, July 9, 2021

Market update #2 - Typical Friday short squeeze

 This is the second update in one day, but I forgot to mention the breakout on High beta, and I also discovered manipulation in the Russell 2000, I wanted to share. 

$SPHB (High Beta) - Actually broke out yesterday, when most everything else was selling off. You'll  find this chart in my public charts area, although I don't pay much attention to those charts much anymore. 

As I type, I see the $SPX retesting the recent high. I remain bearish, based on the elevated $VIX. 

And speaking of markets being rigged, on a Friday 

$IWX (Russell 2000 value) fund. Look at how they engineered the short squeeze! See the note... 

They raised the bid just above the 50 day moving average, at the open. We've seen this plenty of times before, but I'm still surprised when I see how the rigged stock market operates.  

$DIDI - I decided to chart this junk. Seems to be stuck in a death spiral. 

Here's a chart to watch going into the next earning season. 

$BAC Bankrupt of America - Watch the 41.65 level. That was the 2007 high. 

Enjoy your weekend, AA 

Market Update - Short Squeeze Friday 7/9/2021

 Market bounces back into another short squeeze Friday. No surprise, if you happened to catch my review of yesterday's market action.  

Looks like this on the 30 min $SPX: I don't consider Friday short squeezes bullish. It's just an excuse to manipulate the (weekly) options market.  

Something you may have missed - if you don't follow me on LinkedIn - is the breakout in commodities, which I saw coming, yesterday.  

$GTX (S&P commodities index) - crawls back into the bullish channel, after being bought at the 50 day moving average. Classic bullish setup  

$UNG - Natural Gas bounces off support 

$TSX - Even the ridiculous Canadian market snaps back. This looks like a backtest of the broken trend (or pattern) in Blue, so I'd be looking for another leg down, rather than a break out....   

The NASDAQ - trend seems to remain intact, but not sure how much longer this can continue. 
My best guess is that we see more volatility, and sideways - to down - consolidation. 

China is up big - as expected. 

 $YINN (leveraged China bull) breaks out. Must be good news, that Bloomberg isn't reporting? 

That's about it for this week. Next week is Options Expiration, so expect plenty more volatility! 


Thursday, July 8, 2021

Market Update 7/8/2021 - Market sells off 1 day after I sound the warning...

 Being right is nothing new to me, but you also have to be consistent, and diligent, or more like vigilant...  Not always easy, even for me, and even more difficult when I'm short on sleep. I've been having a little bit of a hard time with insomnia the past few days, so excuse the typos, and try to bear with me. No pun intended ("bear")     

First things first: To get you up to speed for this week, you can review the blogs, and tweets, but in short I called NatGas a sell, Oil bullish, even after the sell-off we saw earlier in the week. Yesterday, we saw more weakness in Oil, but nothing that points to a reversal. Oil markets gave back the gains from the day before, yet only ended slightly lower than the previous low. We also saw China retest the recent low, but not any panic really, despite the financial news networks constant wringing of hands over Chinese regulation. See:  China tightens rules for global stock offerings, crimping the steady flow of companies seeking to raise funds in worldwide markets

 And speaking of panic, you should review the $VIX levels I pointed to in an earlier blog, and you'll see that the breakout of the $VIX above the 18 level, is the only catalyst needed to cause the panic selling we've seen in markets this morning. Even global markets are selling off; EEM, Hong Kong, Germany, everything!  

Let's get to the charts, and see if we can't get ahead of next weeks trade: 

$VIX broke out above the 15.90 level, for a 3rd time. in several weeks.  This morning the $VIX broke out above the $VIX 18 level, and traders ignoring $VIX 20, and rushing in to buy the $SPX at the 4300 level - as we saw at today's open - do so at their own financial peril. The psychological 4300 level only matters to the market engineers, and the manipulators, and that may even include the US Treasury. 

$SPX - I sounded the warning - to get out - yesterday.  Look for support around the 4270 level? I question that, because calling a bottom, ahead of a Friday, and in the middle of a sell-off, seems a little premature. calling reversals must be done in real time. That's just the way it is. 

$DOW - comparing the DOW to the $SPX, you can see the Dow was bought at the 20 and 50 day moving averages. I can't see this selling off next week, after crawling back above support (above my pink line). The chart has already been repaired, by the powers that be. 

$UNG (Natural Gas fund) reverses precisely at my target. I have to trust the DCS (daily candlestick) chart on this one. 

$UCO (Bloomberg Oil) 60 min chart. Trend remains up, so I can't really confirm a reversal here, and I'm looking forward to a short squeeze in the leveraged oil bull.  

Of course, if you think Oil is bearish here, you should buy the leveraged bear $SCO. Good luck with that LOL 

I'm also bullish China, now that the bearish story has reached a fever pitch.

$FXI - looks like perfect entry, and when you see this chart, you know the news is being used in order to take out predetermined targets. I see no other explanation.  Drive stocks up on fake news, drive stocks down, on fake news. 

And speaking of News. I called the top of the range on $IBM - on my linked in page - and the very next day the stock was taken down on news that the CEO is resigning. Of course that news was already set to be released, and it was sold right on schedule, the very next day. Uncanny  

So to wrap things up. I nailed yesterday's bearish call, and hopefully saved you some grief. I could see the $SPX pulling back a little more, and you have to be cautious until the $VIX comes back down. This high volatility is nothing to play with. But I remain bullish going into Mid July.

Take care, AA  

Wednesday, July 7, 2021

Market Update 7/7/21 - Are the days of pattern trading over?

 I know I shouldn't get too cocky, because I know I'll be wrong again one of these days, just not today. 

First off: Let's fix all the typos on yesterday's blog, and expound on it. I was kinda busy yesterday... DONE! 

Be sure to check out the (oil) bear fund chart I added to yesterday's blog, and compare it to the next chart! 

$UCO (Bloomberg Crude Oil). I believe it should be illegal for a so called financial news outlet to create ETFs, but I guess it is what it is. What I want you to see on the chart is how the 20 day moving average was bought... as has been the trend for some times. I'm still not sure if it's the machines buying the 20 day, or the market engineers (the manipulators), but I am pretty certain this is no coincidence. Like it or not, this is the new market, but still in someway's the same old market, as they drove oil up into every summer driving season, because this is what people get paid to do!  

Are the days of pattern trading over? Looking at the above chart, it would appear so. You don't need a pattern to trade this market, or to identify the trend, although the pattern on the corresponding bear ETF chart seems to be working flawlessly. This just adds to the fact that Oil is a solid buy. 

New market of not, watch me make money, swing trading oil! Try the leveraged Oil bull, if you can handle the volatility. Trade at your own risk. 


Tuesday, July 6, 2021

market update 7/6/2021 - Oil sells off

 Hope you all had a great 4th of July. I myself, found it quite depressing, now that we find ourselves living under tyranny again. The tech tyranny has the ability to silence any opinions which don't support whatever the official narrative, happens to be, that day. The globalists are proposing an illegal global tax, and of course that doesn't get reported much. Your kids have already been indoctrinated, and will be encouraged to rat out even their parents (you), if you don't shut up and obey... and anyone who protests, will be labeled an, "right wing extremist", as we're already seeing.    

DOJ Still Searching For At Least 300 Capitol Riot Suspects—Including Pipe Bomb Planter—Six Months After Insurrection Forbes 

Nobody with half a brain can look at the massive amounts of available footage from the capital that day, and seriously conclude that this was an armed insurrection, so I must conclude that those who continue to accuse the innocent, must they themselves be guilty. Guilty of stealing the election, for one, and probably guilty of staging the so called insurrection as well. The coverage, was just a little too cute.... and then  Trump was banned from his own social media accounts. Not to mention, how many phony impeachment attempts, and repeatedly trying to link Trump to Russia? 

Insurrectionists pose for a photo

Enough about the state of the union, let's review today's market action 

As far as the sell-off in Oil: Looks like the failure of OPEC to come to any agreement on production cuts, was used as an excuse to take profits. Oil opened higher, but then sold off pretty sharply, yet it only fell 2.5%, and the short term chart still looks bullish. 

$SCO (2X leveraged Oil Bear): Trend remains down. This alone was enough reason for me to cover my oil short. 

We also saw China slammed. Not sure why that was, but China only looks like a pullback to a higher recent high In other words, the trend remains up, as seen on the chart below. 

$FXI - the most widely charted China index. If you recall, I pointed out that China was leading the market weakness, way back in March? I'd think it needs to retrace some of those losses, or even break out to new all time highs. 

One more thing! Every time the $VIX breaks out above the 15.90 level, you're going to see selling, but you won't see panic selling, unless the $VIX gets back above $VIX 18, 20, 21.50, and I just don't see that happening anytime soon. We've seen August swoons in the past, but I don't believe we've ever seen a July sell-off. Don't hold your breath....   

Take Care, AA