Tuesday, October 17, 2017

Market Update 10/17/2017 - Scary Halloween Flashcrash Window

Update on the new membership website: I haven't even gotten started yet; got a lot on my plate right now, including preparing for a possible SHTF scenario this winter.

I'm learning the more you think about providing for peoples basic needs, in a lights out situation, the more involved it gets, and you can spend as much as you like. Anywhere from $100, to $1000, to tens of thousands of dollars, on everything from electric generators, to home defense, but I'm just going for the basics, and hoping that, if the grid does go down, it will be back up within a few weeks. Thinking about starting a separate blog on the subject.

Market Update:
In the last update I predicted the market would continue to hold up into OPEX, and Friday is options expiration. So far so good. I also included a Citigroup chart, that was holding up, but that chart has since broken support. Could be the hedge funds, who constantly target me, just wanted to prove a point... but I have to trust the charts. Every new market high is being dumped, as I pointed out yesterday on the 1 min chart below.

Getting back to financials for a minute: The long term $BKX continues to trade into what looks like a broadening top pattern, at the top of the range we've been watching for the past few years. See the larger broadening pattern labelled 1-2-3-4-5. That's a major topping pattern. Could hold up a few more months, but I believe we're going to see a prolonged bear market commence in early 2018.

Another sector which I'm expecting to lead the next pullback is the healthcare sector, and there is a 3X leveraged health bear with the ticker symbol $SICK. This is a thinly traded fund, so be sure to use limit orders, and exercise extra patience, when trading in an out. 

Healthcare $XLV - as far as timing; when the 50 day ma breaks you know what to do.

I do see a scenario for a sharp pullback, which could start as soon as this Friday, and continuing into early next month, but only if the $VIX can breakout above 12, and keep running. As I look at the $VIX this morning it seems more likely that we could see $VIX 8.50 first, and capitulation for most bears. That would correspond with another higher high on the $SPX, and the DOW.

No doubt in my mind the powers that be want to draw the bears in, ahead of the Thanksgiving holiday, and that's only 6 weeks away?  That's not much time, but once key support (our stop-hunt @ 2548) breaks you're going to see panic selling, like we haven't seen in months.

$SPX - the upper pink line is our stop-hunt. Maybe it gaps down below that level? The red arrows show a hypothetical flash-crash in wave 1, in a bear market. which would certainly lead to several short squeezes - on the rebound - going into the end of the year. Most traders will dismiss the crash, and call it a pullback, and the MSM will chalk it up to "the new normal". Remember the '08 crash actually started in '07, but even today, few recognize that fact. 

Before you get too bearish, too soon; I'd like to conclude today's update with the short term $RUT chart, which continues to consolidate sideways. Looks like wave 4, which should end with another slightly higher high - in wave 5 - which you're going to want to sell. 

 That's all I got, and I'll be away from my desk much of the day.
If I helped you stay on the right side of the trade, feel free to donate to help the cause, using the paypal link in the left hand side menu. 


Friday, October 13, 2017

Market Update 10/13/2017 - Fake Financial News Strikes Again

  Fake Financial News Strikes Again

Let's trade based on what the financial networks report, said no (pro) trader ever

So, yesterday, we saw a mild pullback into the 2550 area on the $SPX, with the selling accelerating going into the close, and I just happened to be watching the charts, and the Fox Business network; wish I had video.... because it would save me a lot of typing.

With 10 minutes still left to go in the trading day: The red head, who hosts the show in the afternoon - who's name eludes me - reports that if market closes below the low made the the previous day, that this is somehow confirms a "bearish reversal". This is the most absurd thing I've heard reported in a long time, and that says a lot, considering that I watch a lot of fake news! And as good as I am - at what I do - I would be hard pressed to call a market reversal, based on a slight 1 day decline, especially after making a new (intra-day) market high, on the same day. Usually takes weeks to confirm a bearish reversal.  

I did call the reversal is shares of Citigroup - at yesterday's open, and it ended down 3.43%, but even the short term trend remains up. This looks like a sudden reversal into a little pullback (in a powerful wave c/4", not a bearish reversal. Support on $C is 72.20 by the way, in case you decide to chase it going into OPEX.


Let's get back to Fox Business - and other financial networks - trying to talk the market down. I've been observing this all week, and even predicted yesterday, that they would like to set the bear trap again... and what better time than when superstitious traders are worried about Friday the 13th. No doubt in my mind this was orchestrated. 

With 10 min left going into yesterday's close, they bring on some shady looking fund manager ( I wish I had a photo, because this women looked demonic), who proceeds to tell viewers that all the good news has been "priced in", and that we may see a 10 - 15% market correction. Blatant false narrative being created, in broad daylight, by the deep state, who owns every one of these networks, and the governing regulatory bodies as well. These are some of the same people who allowed people like Jim Cramer to tell folks to sell everything, if they thought they would "need the money in the next 3 years" - during the financial collapse of 07 - 08.

If you watched the Steve Bannon interview on 60 minutes, you know his father dumped all of his stock in a panic, because there was a lot of fear mongering in the MSM, and he names names, and accredits that (staged) event - in part - to his (Steve's) political activism. After all, these crooks robbed his father of his life savings, and you can bet they laughed all the way to the bank! Never trust the fake news! Never trade according to what is being reported! Even when what is being reporting, can be authenticated; it's most likely, already been priced in, by the time you learn about it. This is because the Banksters have a direct line to the politicians, and when they decide to pull the rug out you won't be given any warning, believe me.  

Allow me to tell you a story about a military contractor (stock) I once fell in love with. I was new to this, and luckily didn't have a large amount of money to invest, because I still had a lot to learn - the hard way. $FRPT was the ticker; if memory serves. They manufacture MRAP vehicles, that were much needed, for the 2nd Iraq war. This was before Cramer started pumping the name. I was sucked in around 30% from the top, I think, so I was up, and feeling good about it, but, before long, came the big reversal, and I gave it all away, and continued to ride it all the way down... all the time insisting the company had value. Sure, it had value, but probably $5 per share, not $24. It was the classic pump and dump; I'll never forget the stock being crushed on the very day it went to the big board, meaning it was not longer trading OTC. I'm not sure if this was considered and official IPO, but you see the same thing happen to overly hyped IPO's all the time. After all the hype, all the good news is already priced in, and I can't think of even one IPO that breaks the, "sell the news" rule. Even FaceBook, was sold, and the weak hands shaken out, before it was pumped into outer orbit (where you see it trading today).   

Most of us, when we're new to trading; we search for intelligent sources of information, and think we can outsmart the next guy, but by the time you hear about a hot trade - 90% of the time - the easy money has already been made, and those aren't good odds. Don't be left holding the bag. Don't fall in love with stocks, or gold, or any other trade.

More on trading the news: 

Remember when I called the major reversal in Brexit trade, the Russian Ruble trade, and Oil, the Trump rally, and most every other recent event the main stream media has gotten wrong?

At the height of the Brexit panic:

There are times when the main stream media circus signals a capitulation point, and other times when I see them reporting falsehoods, in order to manipulate markets, and some times it's hard to differentiate the two, but the $VIX never lies.

Yesterday: $VIX closed below the highs of the day, and was only up barely 1%, when it sold off just ahead of the close, so we know the fear was manufactured. Another bear trap, for those who trust the networks.

This morning: we see the market trading at new market highs again, and yesterday's outlook still holds true. If you need a chart, and have donated to this website in the recent past, feel free to message me for a chart. Make a $30 donation today, and I'll be happy to help you.

The New membership website is still in the works.

You'll find some of the details about that in yesterday's blog.

Take Care, and have a great weekend!



Thursday, October 12, 2017

Market Update October 12, 2017 - Important Announcement

It's been a few weeks since the last update, and the market has continued to move higher, as predicted... it's been pretty good trading considering the lack of volatility.

Important Announcement:  Relaunch of the membership website is already in the works.

Since closing the membership web site - couple years ago - I've improved my game exponentially, but Twitter is really getting old. Twitter is for political rants, trolls, and deadbeats. "You get what you pay for", I guess, and Twitter is free.   

Lately I find myself losing interest in market timing, because it just isn't that challenging anymore. Some of this has to do with the low volatility, and a rally that has continued for - going on - 18 months, without even so much as a pullback. But this lack of enthusiasm also comes from a lack of incentive.... I've been giving it all away for free here, and on Twitter, for that past few years, save for the few donations that help pay for my charting subscription, and a few hardware upgrades.... This has been a great learning experience, and time to take personal inventory, but this isn't charity work! If it were... I'd feel good about, knowing I'm helping people in need, but trading the market is all about making money, at least keep from losing it all, as so many did in '08.        

It time to make a change, and relaunch the website. This is what it's going to take to help restore my enthusiasm, and just the thought of it has put a skip back in my step.

I just have some paperwork to fill out, filing fees, and the actual build... which shouldn't take long. Very exciting! Hoping to launch before Thanksgiving, and this seems like good timing, as volatility  typically remains low.... this should give me time to get caught up on charting - if need be.

The new website will be similar to the old membership website, using the same web service, and apparently they've made some improvements... Subhub, makes it easy to update on the fly, and subscription renewals are handled automatically. We may make use of a private twitter feed for intra-day updates, and/or a webinar... whatever the case, I'm sure there are better technical options than we had, even a few years ago.

I'll probably offer a basic service, which will include a daily broader market update, and stock pics upon request, and a premium service, which might include intra-day updates, Forex, Commodities, and email, and text alerts. I'm still not sure on pricing, but $99 doesn't go very far anymore, and if you can't afford that, you shouldn't be trading, in the first place. Maybe you only want to subscribe when you're stumped, or when volatility is off the chart, or suspend your subscription during periods of low volatility. I may offer a trial 1 month membership at 29.95, but free subs only attract trolls. Folks who continue to donate to this blog, you can continue as you are, for now.

My short term, and intermediate term outlook.     

Yesterday, the Fed minutes were released, and the market didn't even react, and now we head into another earning season, and you know how that goes. 

At some point, all the good news will be priced in, but as long as there's no fear in the market, the market is going to continue to hold up, and MM's want to lock in gains for 2017. This run up into the end of the year, has everything to do with money managers getting their Christmas bonuses... and nothing to do with stock valuation. This is in part why the market is rigged; greed, over integrity.

I do believe the "powers that be", will want to get the retail short sellers involved, ahead of the holidays, so they can set another bear trap, but Thanksgiving is still several weeks away.

Certain stocks have been run up, ahead of OPEX, and you can be sure those Calls are going to pay, because every trade revolves around the options markets, so I guess, I'd be looking for the market to start consolidating sideways to lower, around the end of October/ Early November.

I'll continue to provide relevant market updates to this blog, but the URL 3Xtraders.com is coming with us, as are the charts, and targets. If you need a chart, donate to the cause (using the paypal link located in the left side menu), and message me @3Xtraders.