Wednesday, June 30, 2021

Market Update - ahead of the 4th of July - Commodities, Gold, Natural Gas, Stocks, Climate Collapse

 If you've followed me for any length of time, you know how holiday trading goes. 90% of the time; low volume, going into a holiday, is prime time for squeezing the short sellers. Granted the short sellers don't want to go into a holiday with short positions on, but the greedy bulls use this as an opportunity to manipulate everything from stocks to bit coin! The latest short squeeze could be found in shares of Virgin Galactic, on - you got it - another "short squeeze Friday".   

Yesterday, I pointed to an $SPX chart, where I identified precisely where it would break out to a new all time high, and knowing we're trading into a holiday made that prediction, stupid-simple, and it's no coincidence that the breakout occurred on a short squeeze Friday. 

The breakout on the $SPX was pretty obvious, but the breakout was also confirmed by a breakout on the DOW (above the - universal bullish - 50 day moving average). This this is the thing to watch, as much as the $VIX 15 level is. They drove the DOW above the 50 day, knowing it would insure payment on bullish weekly options bets. 

This morning we got another lousy jobs number, and guess what? The machines and the manipulators don't care, because all that matters is the next OPEX (options expiration), and the fact that nobody is selling these levels, going into a holiday. Yes, it's that simple, although the financial networks would never tell you, the news is meaningless. I mean this is how they make their bread and butter, creating a lot a hype around every breaking headline! Remember when they tried to convince us that Russia, and Saudi Arabia, were in a bidding war, and that would hurt oil prices forever? Well that all turned out to be BS, as I said at the time, and calling the bottom in oil was never so easy...! Same goes for the ridiculous Covid hype, and panic. Regardless of all the mass hysteria, Covid moralities were not any worse than a bad flu season, but that doesn't stop the fed and their Compadres in the house and senate, from spending trillions of US taxpayer dollars, for absolutely no other reason than to juice the market.

News FLASH: "0 interest rates aren't required in an already hot housing market!"  

Truth is the housing market is being driven up by Blackrock and others... 

"If You Sell a House These Day, the buyer might be a pension fund" WSJ

2 trades: 

NATGAS - Strong sell at the top of the channel

Gold - strong buy - near the bottom of the channel 

See how the price action bounced off my thin black line, in yesterday's trading? Yeah, I'm just that good... 

May have to wait a week or 2 for these trades to work, due to the holiday. 

I generally hate commodities but we may not see any measurable decline for months. Sept maybe? I can't wait to see what BS excuse the talking heads come up with for the next crash, or will is be something serious this time, like climate collapse? If Covid was just a dress rehearsal for controlling populations, ahead of an extinction level event, then we might be looking to buy NatGas on the pullback. Clean  drinking water may be another commodity worth owning... 

 If I don't see you again before September, have a great summer!

Tuesday, June 29, 2021

Market Update - Oil & Gas contracts, and commodities, anomalies

 I keep meaning to blog, but summer is typically slow trading, and I've been doing more stock picking lately, rather than trying to predict the broader market, and I may give up on blogging, all together.  

I do provide an occasional update to my linkedin page, and even Twitter, but it just seems like a big waste of time. Twitter is a dead platform, and I only have a hand full of traders following me on linkedin.   

In case you missed the most recent updates, I pointed out the (4260) breakout target on the $SPX, which happened on Friday. Stupid simple prediction, and there's no telling how much longer the rally continues. Unless, the 50 day moving average breaks, the bears have nothing to hang their hat on. 

I could point to a lot of bearish indicators, and I would not be long anything at this late stage of the game, but I wouldn't be holding my breath for a pullback over the summer, either. 

But the real reason I wanted to blog today, is because of the anomalies I'm seeing in several commodities. 

I'll let the charts speak for themselves. 

Wheat down 12%?: 

NATGAS: Was seen down like 40%, where you see my green circle. Strange 

$WTI Crude Oil: See the pink circle on this chart. This is where it was trading at the close? Impossible! May have been a flash crash, but in several sectors, and it goes unreported?