Market Update Jan. 31, 2022 - Awesome Trading Environment

Wow, I had trouble getting the computer to boot up this morning. Maybe is didn't shut down properly, on Friday? It's about time for a new computer build, but not until GPU prices come way down, and a crash in the chip space isn't expected, at least, until the second half of '22.     

Speaking of crashes, Energy, and specifically Brent Crude Oil is finally taking out my upside target, and Natural Gas continues to snapback, to lower recent highs (bearish). I thought I was short Natgas on Friday, but apparently I got lucky, when the sell order didn't fill (on Thursday). 

$UNG - if it opens above my pink line, it will be setting up for the same sort of bear trap we saw in late November. Looks like a gap fill target, from the same period. Treacherous trading 

NatGas - Key resistance on Natural Gas becomes the 2018 high (around 4.95) again 

Wrapping up last week's broader market action; the market continued to build a base, as expected - when I told you that most the damage had been done, but that we were "not quite out of the woods yet". 

We saw a little short squeeze going into Friday's close. That was also predicted, Friday, before the open, and confirmed in the afternoon.  

$SPX - it doesn't get any more precise than this; ...called in real time!   

Checking the $SPX 15 min. live chart - "the wind up" #Stockcharts .com pic.twitter.com/hkd6CnkDiN

— Veteran Market Timer (@3Xtraders) January 28, 2022

I see people in my twitter timeline - I won't name names - calling the recent action unrecognizably "whippy", but it all looks very familiar to me! In fact this is perfectly natural to see whippy bottoming action, at these $VIX levels. 

I also see the dishonest lame stream media - namely Bloomberg - trying to spin the recent weakness into something it's not.  

The start of 2020, was far worse.... See for yourself.
#Nasdaq #Bloomberg #FakeNews #PsyOp #Stocks pic.twitter.com/jqSznwQG1Q

— Veteran Market Timer (@3Xtraders) January 31, 2022

Looks like another bad case of mass media induced, mass hysteria, and it's proved by the fact that the short term charts aren't even been broken, as they were in 2020. 

We're still not exactly off to the races yet, but give it a little more time. 

Prediction: Rally into Valentines Day 

Have a great week, AA 

   

Market Update 1/28/22 - Natural Gas, $DAX, $SPX, $VIX

 It's sure taking a lot of time, for the crooks on Wall Street to load the truck, after shaking the weak hands - at a new recent $VIX high - on Monday. It really shouldn't take all week to build a base, after such a little shakeout, and it's just not normal to see such little movement above $VIX 30. Seems that the $VIX is being held up, artificially, and I suspect that the powers that be, are using this technique of holding the $VIX above 20, in order to keep buying cheap Calls, weeks/ months out.  

$SPX - I'm able to move charts around again, after switching browsers, and I've this 1 min. chart to the public charts area, in order to try to make things more exciting. Seeing a wave 1 (or A), followed by a slow pullback. Next was should be either a powerful wave C, or an even more powerful wave 3. 

Note: this is the same EW Count you'll find on the 10 min. chart, in the public charts area.

 

Watch for another little shakeout at the open, followed by a rip your face off rally. 

$SPX 15 min. chart

Seeing resistance @ 4495, and 4640 - going into next week, so I'm not expecting, yet another Monday morning surprise, next week. 

While we're talking about Elliott Wave Theory, or technique, check out this call on the $DAX back in Nov.

German $DAX Elliott Wave Analysis by Gregor Horvat (several news sources/ barchart.com)

 Here's Gregor's forecast back in Nov., and as you probably know by now, we have been following the $DAX for years, because US markets follow the $DAX.

 

In Hindsight the $DAX  rallied all the way back to a slightly lower high in Dec., and continues to trade in a range.  

$DAX - personally, I would've never made such a bearish call on the $DAX, without first confirming a topping pattern, as I did ahead of the covid crash. I also don't make bold calls based on anyone - short term - chart view, and certainly not for a continuing correction.

1. The sideways pattern continues. 2. We're not seeing new lower lows, even as the lying fake propaganda news go out of their way to convince us that the Oct lows on the $SPX have been taken out. Who do you think wrote that headline? 3. Higher highs/ higher lows is the definition of a bull market. 

Moving on

Gold

$GLD - Sold off the right shoulder, and broke at the 50 day moving average. A very good trade, if you were anticipating it. 

 

Natural Gas futures rallied some +30% on yesterday's contract expiration date. 

Reminders: 

1.Trading commodities carries more risk, than trading equities. If you aren't a pro, you have no business trading commodities.

2. Practice proper money management. Anyone who was short NatGas contracts yesterday, and over-leveraged, is wiped out. I suggest not investing over 10% in any 1 trade, initially. This allows you plenty of room to add to your position, if the opportunity presents itself. For instance, if the market controllers come in and break the charts on a Monday morning.

3. Yesterday's move in natural gas is yet another good example why I tell you to watch expiration dates. I would go a step further and tell you not to be short, going into these date. 

4. Options expiration dates are the same way; a good reason not to go short into a Friday. Even in bear markets you see a lot of short squeeze Fridays.

$UNG rallied to the upper pattern line on the same old chart we've been watching for weeks now, so in case you missed the live update 

Getcha somma this @GoldmanSachs pic.twitter.com/OtbEgzqOcS

— Veteran Market Timer (@3Xtraders) January 27, 2022

 

I'll put my charts up against Goldman's, or anyone else's charts, any day of the week! 

Have a great weekend, AA

 

 

 

 

Market Update 1/27/2022 - The Morning After The FOMC Announcement

After a long day of charting, I could do 5 blogs this morning, with all that I'm seeing....

 I may have to divide this Update into several parts, but I promise to try to keep it short.

Off Topic 

In yesterday's blog I was ranting about some of the idiocy that passes for journalism these days, and  about how the left is pushing a biracial advertising boom, in order to push a leftist political agenda, based on a flawed narrative (social justice). And if you think I'm just being "conspiratorial", try googling the "Biracial Advertising Boom". It is a thing....  

Then just yesterday: 

1. Liberal Supreme Court Justice Breyer announces his resignation, and not only does this help redirect the news cycle (tail waging the dog) from Joe Biden's miserable poll numbers... as it turns out, this is another political stunt being used to try to keep blacks on the plantation! This is the same reason Joe Biden was forced to pick the wildly unpopular Kamala Harris, as his VP. In other words; the left is desperate to keep the black vote, so let's make political appointments, based only on race! That's right, we're going to exclude, Jews, Asians, Men of color, and of course White people, in order to appease radical black activists, and their political buddies on the left!    

Related       

Biden Expected to Nominate a Black Woman to the Supreme Court NYT 

2. Turns out Joe Biden let the cat out of the bag on the biracial advertising agenda months ago. Guess I was not paying attention to the news... or I missed school, that day? 

Somebody Tell Biden Interracial Couples on Commercials Does Not Make America Less Racist aninjusticemag.com 

So much for trying to keep this blog short, but I feel it's important to point out how the real terrorists are working to destroy this county. And make no mistake about it; the ultimate agenda is, "order out of chaos", and they are winning..!

FOMC 

As far as the Fed announcement Bloomberg gets it right when they report, "The Fed did nothing, and committed to nothing, which it hasn't already committed...", so there is no fundamental reason for stocks to continue to sell off. 

Yesterdays Fed Announcement simply turned out to be a "sell the news" event as expected, and if you were watching my live twitter feed, then you probably saw me call it in real time.  

You're going to want to sell the FOMC news
looking at #semiconductors $SOX 10 min view #LetsGoBrandon! #UkraineConflict #ukrainerussia #Stocks pic.twitter.com/0ywLDYXtC3

— Veteran Market Timer (@3Xtraders) January 26, 2022

I'm actually finding several charts that confirm we're not out of the woods, and $VIX closed above 30. I believe we've seen the worst of the selling, but this is no time to become complacent! 

Speaking of the $VIX! 

Not soon after I found a downturn channel on the 5 min $VIX, that channel was purposely taken out! 

In fact let's document it: 

1. Soon after the Fed announcement, I find a downturned channel on the 5 min $VIX 

You're going to want to sell the FOMC news
looking at #semiconductors $SOX 10 min view #LetsGoBrandon! #UkraineConflict #ukrainerussia #Stocks pic.twitter.com/0ywLDYXtC3

— Veteran Market Timer (@3Xtraders) January 26, 2022

2. Moments later the bid is raised precisely above res. Of course this was taken as a sell signal, and since I has already called it, I found it all quite amusing. 

  Resistance now becomes support. Selling accelerates.  

I suppose it's possible that some bearish hedge fund found the same exact thing that I was seeing, at the exact same time, and jacked the $VIX up accordingly, but I think I'm being watched. 

Regardless... as long as the $VIX continues to hold above the 30 level, it's going to keep buying at bay. I saying "buying", not buyers, because most buying is done by machines, and using tax payer money. I don't believe there's a free market, any more than I believe the strange weather phenomenons we're seeing on a regular basis is anything natural. Everything is rigged, in order to prevent a total collapse. Climate, Markets, Financial System, Pensions, Government, US Dollar, Social Security, rigged Elections, Main Stream Media, everything! RIP America         

$WSLH - Wilshire 5000 - 60 min. chart 

$TSX - Canada - at least this market got a nice snap-back rally, probably thanks to the overpriced energy market.   

Speaking of Energy 

Oil Drillers top out again 

Later, AA

Market Update - Free Charting In Real Time

 In case you missed it, I was charting the 15 min. $SPX chart live (seen below) at yesterday's opening bell, just like the good old days, but I'm afraid a lot of folks who follow me don't even know where to find the public charts area. You can find the link in the side menu, on this page, or the one in my twitter description. You can also find up to the minute live updates attached to my pinned tweet, on the main twitter page. 

The action was pretty uneventful, even though the lame stream media continues to report "wild swings". The truth is there aren't many wild swings during normal trading hours, only in futures markets. The market can gap down 4% at the open, but you seldom see it sell off 4% during normal trading hours. 

 $SPX - Expecting a little pullback - ahead of the fed - even though we see the market riggers - once again - holding futures above the 4400 level, this morning. 

From there, I'm seeing a 5 wave move, complete with a test of the 4600 (4635) level, followed by yet another Monday morning shakeout. Of course this 15 min chart, could be wiped out, in 5 min., with the volatility trading at $VIX 30, so it's more important to watch the longer term charts, and we'll get to some important ones to watch.... in a moment.  

Firstly 

I tried watching some CNBC after yesterday's close, and I can't believe how dumb, the commentary was, and the sound engineers now feel it's necessary to insert silly sound effects, on everything! Of course they've done this on every network, and even NFL football sounds like a starwars soundtrack. Fox news uses a lot of cymbal crash sound effects, which personally drive me up a wall.

Another thing the networks and their commercial advertisers have done - ever since the George Floyd - psyop - is to try to become radically, "inclusive". Even FOX news has a regular token black dude on the show, and so many commercials include mixed race (bi-racial) couples, it's become quite comical... It's too the point where I can't even watch much TV anymore, unless the sound is off. This is a good thing! And it's not that I have anything against, black people, and especially when they're qualified... it's just insulting to ones intelligence to have political agendas shoved down my throat every day, but I digress.  

So getting back to clueless hacks on CNBC - after the bell - pointing to Microsoft futures down 4%, and with it, NASDAQ futures...  it seems they were all suffering from a bad case of amnesia, as the NASDAQ is only retesting the lows we saw on Monday. The alternative is that the traders on the show, are only hoping that Microsoft get's clobbered, so that they can pick it up on the cheap. 

Look, these money managers who continue to bash tech, when these are some of the same people who drove it into the stratosphere, all-the-while using "covid", as an excuse....; they will now be forced to chase it....  and before you know it, they'll all be talking up tech stocks again. 

I also watched 5 min. of Cramer, and I actually think Cramer get's it right, when he points out that NetFlix earnings has caused the baby to be thrown out with the bath water (paraphrasing). 

Watching the fake news you would think that tech just fell out of favor, but did you know that FAANG stocks actually topped out in early November?    

Getting back to the charts:

$NYFANG - as in FAANG - See the broadening top pattern? One of my favorites! 

 Res. 6750 

$NFLX - Netflix - another broadening top. Another top called... :) 

Looking at the DOW, because the DOW needs to top out last, not lousy tech stocks. 

$INDU - the pattern on the DOW should look very familiar! I don't know if we've seen the top or if this can make another false breakout. It's a complicated, and hard to predict broadening triangle pattern, or broadening top.  

NEXT I want to compare the above DOW chart with the European STOXX 50 chart below. 

$STOXX50 - google it - study this chart, and you'll get a better idea of how markets are trading in the current environment. Pay close attention to the moving averages!  It's easy to see, why the market crashed as it did, and the rebound target will be a bearish) back-test of the 50/ 200 day moving averages.  I'm not even going to attempt to make a prediction, on what happens after that, or try to put an Elliott Wave cycle on it. 

One more thing: 

A crash is coming, but probably not until everyone is bullish again, and we're a long ways from there. 

Oil, and energy will lead the declines as usual, so again, we're not even close to being there yet... 

Take Care, AA 

P.S. I'll be updating the 15 live chart after the open, and again, after the fed announcement.   

   

ssss 

Market Update 1/25/2022 - Yesterday's Historic Rally

 I don't know how historic yesterday's bullish reversal was, but it did paint one of the most impressive bullish hammer (candles) I've ever seen on a chart, and on heavy buying volume, and by the end of trading yesterday, the market had regained support. 

And not only was I right on yesterday's call, but I've been right since I stated I warning folks not to chase the rigged US ponzi stock market into the later half of 2021. 

1. I specifically warned folks not to chase Tech stocks... 

#Tech #Stocks manipulated. Propped up... because they can. Because crime pays. $QQQ #QQQ pic.twitter.com/IcHmahCrg9

— Veteran Market Timer (@3Xtraders) December 7, 2021

Looks like a 300 target on the QQQ's? Doesn't seem so far fetched now, does it?  

2. I was also right on the top in Bitcoin, and the panic selling in Crypos spreading to the rest of the market.  See my Nov. 2nd, Update, in which I specifically told folks to "short Bitcoin". 

3. On Jan. 19th, I was right again on Russia tensions, being used as an excuse to sell markets. This was weeks ago, and only yesterday did Bloomberg finally start reporting on those "geopolitical tensions...".  

$QQQ   Daily Candlesticks Chart Revised - look at the historic volume! 

$INDU - This historic rally even extended to Dow stocks - again - highest buying volume in over a year. Seeing resistance around the 35k area (35.1) on a back-test of the 200 day ma.  

Now, make no mistake about it, the bullish trend was broken, and the NASDAQ $VIX remains in the danger zone, but it's always more dangerous to be a short seller, when the $VIX is running high, and targets constantly need to be revised... Yesterday, I had a hard time getting stock charts to load, and I still can't move charts between folders. I'm not sure if the stockcharts.com site was overloaded, or hacked, but I suspect the later... but I have at least 100 hours of charting to do, just to get caught up! As I tweeted on Friday, "many bullish chart views are broken", and can finally be deleted. This is a good thing, because instead of 30 probable outcomes, it can be narrowed down to say 20, or even 10...   

I'll leave you with a couple $VIX indicators, since these are the only way to measure real fear in markets. $VXN res. is 42.50, and you should hold tech stocks as long as yesterday's high, on the NASDAQ holds. Support on the $VXN remains (30). Once that level breaks we should see things return to normal. 

I have all kinds of $VIX targets and levels that keep me on track, such as the $VIX of the $VIX, which I see traders relying on more, and more, recently. If you would like some guidance on the broader market, I can provide you with $VVIX targets for a one time $100 donation to this website.  

I used to recommend that folks don't short the $VIX, because of the risk involved but I also have those targets. if you're interested. 

If you prefer to try to time the market, using only the standard $VIX chart, I'll leave the one in the public charts area, and good luck to you. $VIX res. becomes 35.30 

As long as the $VIX doesn't break out again - and I don't think that's likely - then the market can continue to rally into next month, and perhaps China can join the party, some time after the Chinese New year. 

Happy New Year, AA 

Market Update Jan. 24th, 2022 = Market poised to rally

Folks who trust the fake financial news, over the charts, are probably starting to believe we're in a bear market, but the market is still trading in the same pattern as is did though most of last year, and the trend remains bullish.   

$SPX - 15 min. Chart - located in the public charts area. 

 This very short term chart isn't even broken. Even If we see another little washout this morning; watch for a sudden reversal, and support at the 4400 level.  

 

$COMPQ - NASDAQ - Even the NASDAQ is trading in the same topping pattern - an upturned broadening triangle 

 

Continue to watch the NASDAQ $VIX targets I laid out on Friday, as well as the $VIX 28 level. 

After calling the bottom, going into Friday's close, I stand by that call, even in the face of market futures once again, rolling over into the red, overnight.

Energy and oil 

$XOP down 10% last week, while Oil was held up into monthly OPEX (rigged)  

I like $SOX at the 200 day ma 

Take Care, AA 

Market Update 1/21/22 - Best Trade Of The Year!

Best Trade Of The Year!

In case you missed it I took profits in my NatGas (short) trade yesterday. This was a sightly better trade than even the suckers rally I caught in $SOXS earlier in the month, and marks my best trade of the year, and it's still only Jan.! 

As a matter of fact I'm up over 23.46% in $KOLD, and plenty short #NATGAS
Spank you very much!

— Veteran Market Timer (@3Xtraders) January 20, 2022

Of course I caught a falling knife in tech, and I'm down in my energy shorts, but as a whole, I'm up for the year, and that's a heck of a lot better than the perma-bulls can say. 

Am I bullish Natural Gas now? No, but anytime you find yourself up 25% in a day, or even in 1, or 2 weeks, I suggest that in most cases - 9 times out of 10 - you should take profits! Besides, I saw how the opening bid on $KOLD was jacked above the 50 day moving averaged in order to help take Nat Gas down, and I don't expect that kind of manipulation to last. Thing in terms of bullish and bearish sets you up for failure. Don't trade on feelings. 

I called yesterday's bearish reversal ahead of the close, using the $TSX Canada chart. What kind of investor thinks Canada is going to avoid the contagion....  

$TSX - Canada - 10 min chart breaks 

Look, when you see panic in Bitcoin, and tech, not to mention the UK, then you can expect everything to be sold. We ever see Gold futures down this morning, as the idiots in charge, continue to push for a war with Russia!  

That reminds me; we need to check on Germany, as the $DAX continues to be used to manipulate US futures markets. I'm not going to show a chart, but if the $DAX cracks the 50 week moving average, the next stop is nearly 1000 points lower.

For right now, we're still not seeing much panic, except in Crypos, and Netflix, of all things.  

Netflix looks interesting around this 425 level, but only for a dead cat bounce back to the $500 level. There are much better trades than this! 

Tech  - If you're interested in finding the bottom in tech, see the target I laid out on the #NASDAQ yesterday, and see my $VIX target, near the end of this update.  

Let's look at the DOW

$INDU -  Continues to trade in the same pattern we've been watching since May, 2021, and still on track to make another all time high, before - May - selling season. 

Remember the DOW lags, so it's highly unlikely that we've seen the top in the broader market, including tech. 

I still suspect this is going to be another short lived pullback. The controllers like to get these shakeouts done in a hurry, as we saw during the 1 month long (so called) "covid crash". Which was nothing more than a blip on the radar, as hard as the fake news tries to paint it as a recession, in need of more stimulus. As I've said all along, covid was/ is being used as an excuse to pump the ponzi market economy, and pull the wool over investors eyes. This won't end well, but probably won't end anytime soon. Even global collapses take some time to gather steam, so we should have plenty of warning.    

Maybe there's a 1% chance the contagion leads to a crash, today?

If you're looking to reduce your risk, wait until the the NASDAQ $VIX  - the $VXN -  is hammered back down below the 30.24 level. If it get's above that level you're going to stop out of big tech. When it gets back below 30 you're going to hold. When it drops back below 27.25, and plummets, you're going to add....    

Take Care, AA 

 

1/20/22 - Have the Market Controllers Instructed their Bought and Paid For MSM to Stop using the term "Bear Market..."?

I realize that's kind of a weird title for a Market Update, but these are strange times we're living in. 

I've noticed over the past couple days that the financial fake news HAS been reporting that there has been a "10% pullback on the NASDAQ...", and technically that's true, but I haven't heard them report that the Nasdaq is trading in "BEAR MARKET TERRITORY". This morning ( an hour ago) I see the Wall Street Journal reporting it as "correction territory this morning (an hour ago)", and I guess that's as close as we're going to get to the controllers declaring victory, and shaking out only the top dumbest 5% of all investors.       

Did you know that Motley Fool in collaboration with the Nasdaq, helped engineer this 10% pullback, in tech stocks? 

Is a Big Bear Market Coming in 2022? nasdaq.com Dec. 31.2021 11:17AM 

I find it appropriation that they would use the most ridiculous looking bear photo thy could find, in the article, since the pullback they engineered is a joke. 2 months to give back only 10%? 

So let's take a closer look at the tech charts this morning, and see what's really going on here. 

$COMPQ - Nasdaq down another 1%, and almost 4% for the week, but the week's not over.

We did see a slightly higher high on the $VIX but no panic whatsoever.  

I did spot a short term target on the $VIX, that lined up perfectly with an updated target on the $SPX. 

$SPX 15 min view.  

$SPX overshoots to the downside, ever so slightly pic.twitter.com/33np34M8KX

— Veteran Market Timer (@3Xtraders) January 19, 2022

Getting back to tech

We did see a little shakeout below some key moving averages on the NASDAQ, but since the article above points specifically to correction in BIG TECH, we want to look at the $NDX. 

$NDX - teasing the 200 day moving average. This is seen as a buy the dip moment for 90% of the money managers on Wall Street, who are smart enough to watch technical signals. Since the controller's understanding of technical indicators is pretty limited, and their love of even numbered targets is rudimentary, then you're going to want to be watching the 15,000 level. just in case we see that target taken out this morning. 

I've been calling for a short squeeze, going into the Friday trading, but since this sell-off was orchestrated by the powers that be, we we just have to wait until next week, for the light at the end of the tunnel of manipulation. 

The market has been manipulated for 100 years, what's another few days...?  

A couple more charts to watch: 

COMPQ - possible 14k target 

What's funny is they controllers have been quietly selling cloud, and other junk, rather than the most heavily manipulated stocks, ie Apple, and Google. 

$CLOU Liking Cloud here, trading at May 2021 levels 

 

$TECS - not liking the long term trend on the 3X Tech Bear 

Opening bell just rang, gotta run... 

Later, AA 

Market Update 1/19/22 - Gap Fill Target Met - NASDAQ. Short term outlook on Oil

Watching the financial fake news, you would think there's a devastating market correction in progress, but yesterday mornings 1 day shakeout aside, it looks more like a double bottom, and I suspect we're building a base, ahead of Jan. Options Expiration. The $VIX agrees, as it continues to make lower highs. Perhaps money managers are becoming accustomed to these Monday morning surprises? In other words, you don't see them rushing to by ($VIX) protection, and this all points to another nothing-burger, as I've been saying for the past several days/ weeks.    

NASDAQ - gap fill target met. OPEX target is a retest of the broken channel line (in black). 

We did see a little shakeout below the 200 day, and that proves that whoever took down the market on Tuesday, knew exactly where to pull the rug out, but I still can't help but wonder who is selling on - what seems like - the first trading day of every week? Could be fund redemption, or selling that was put off until 2022, do to tax purposes? 

NASDAQ tests the 50 week moving average.  Trend remains higher, and we're probably looking at another all time high, before we see anything resembling a normal correction. 

So the selling has not been very dramatic, no matter how hard CNBC tries to convince us, otherwise. 

We did see Russia taken down in a big way, something the lame stream media didn't report. But wait! Shouldn't higher oil prices be good for Russia?!   

$RUSL - Russia 2X Leveraged Bull Down -15%! I like it here! 

    

The whole - fake news - thing reminds me of the recent reporting on the recent Tonga eruption; depending on the source; Tonga was either "spared serious damage", and loss of life, or it was "utterly obliterated".  

e.g. 

Dramatic photos show horrific aftermath of massive Tonga eruption and tsunami (livescience)

vs

Despite violent volcano blast, Tonga appears spared from widespread disaster - (latimes)

But wait there's more! 

The pandemic appears to have spared Africa so far. Scientists are struggling to explain why science.org  

Dow drops 540 points, Nasdaq falls 2.6% as 10-year yield rises to 2-year high (CNBC) 

I also heard it being reported that Oil is trading a 7 year highs? I think I know how this story ends. 

$WTI Crude Oil - looks like a double top, or a retest of the recent highs - st bearish 

Basically it seems like the main stream media makes up whatever story they believe will get the most attention, but it's getting hard to even watch anymore. 

Watch the charts, AA 

Market Update Technical Tuesday 1/18/22

 Today is looking like another Monday Morning Shakeout; even though it's Tuesday; it's the first trading day of the week; thanks to MLK jr Day. 

Seems like the selling is somehow tied to the bond market? Not sure, but the UK gapped down this morning. 

FCA clamps down on temporary licences used to trade with UK ft.com

Energy continues to run 

$BRENT crude looks like it wants to test the top of the range, so I'm expecting a little breakout above the 86.75 level. In fact I spotted this target months ago! 

$XOP Energy May retest this pattern, yet wave E's have been known to fall short of the final target. 

$SPX Energy $GJX - trading at a lower high, at max bullish sentiment. This is a little scary... coming off what had been nearly a 600% rally off the 2020 low.  I like it closer to 100, and I'm not willing to chase $1 daily moves in crude oil. 

TECH

We continue to see tech being sold, but the NASDAQ is testing the 200 day ma, for the first time in almost 2 years, and that's supper-bullish. 

$COMPQ NASDAQ - being bought at the 200 day ma 

China 

Hang Seng Hong Kong China - did you hear any of the fake financial news outlets report that the Hang Seng was (bullish) backtesting the 200 month moving average, and being bought.... just as it has been... over the past 10 years? No! Why? Because they prefer to keep the average investor confused, and in the dark, obviously. Don't ever trust the corporate owned medial; most of what is reported is propaganda.  

Financials - JP Morgan reported on Friday, and the chart is working perfectly, so... 

 $JPM - bullish pullback on a Federal Reserve Member Bank aka Chase 

So, I don't have much choice to be bullish on just about everything, except energy here. 

Have a great week, AA  

Market Update Friday 1/14/22 - $VIX is Driven Just Above 20 - Going Into Yesterday's Close - But By Whom?

To get caught back up to speed:

 Yesterday - Thursday - I started writing what started out as a humorous idea for a blog, but after an hour into it, I found myself having to explain the joke, and when you need to explain a joke, it just isn't funny anymore. 

In hindsight I should've updated the previous day's market action, and that I was expecting a pullback, based on where the $VIX was trading (at my green line). 

You can find that chart in the #1 spot in the public charts lineup - linked in the left hand side menu. 

As tweeted: I "took profits", soon after yesterday's open, and from there all we saw was continued weakness. 

I took profits in $SOXL this morning, up 20%. $SOX #ChaChing #Stocks

— Veteran Market Timer (@3Xtraders) January 13, 2022

We also saw a massive reversal in Natural Gas, which I've also been covering on twitter, and I can't say that I've ever made a more perfectly timed, and accurate, call on Nat Gas, than the top I called, Wed. afternoon.  

FFS #NatGas ran a little further than expected, so I'm lowing the downside target.... pic.twitter.com/pCWq3PtJ2Q

— Veteran Market Timer (@3Xtraders) January 12, 2022

And if that wasn't enough, I've remained bullish on NatGas, up until this point! 

Update on NatGas: I expect it to consolidate sideways and make another run at the recent high, before selling off again. Seeing futures down only slightly this morning, so this obviously isn't the big correction, I'm looking for.    

As I also tweeted yesterday: 

I like the volatility. This is trading at it's best! $VIX

— Veteran Market Timer (@3Xtraders) January 13, 2022

 

 $VIX is Driven Just Above 20 - Going Into Yesterday's Close - But By Whom? 

The $VIX managed to close just above 20, and Bloomberg was reporting that the market would "sell off into the close", some 20 min. before the close, so my question is who is writing the script...? Seems quite obviousness to me that the same people who had planned to drive the $VIX just above the magic number (20), going into yesterday's close, also work for Bloomberg.  

Then after mission accomplished, Bloomberg host, talks up the sell-off on the $NDX, trying to make it sound like the worst thing that's happened since the covid crash! Who is it they're trying to scare? The average investor or course.

Today's trade  

Now that the market controllers can declare "mission accomplished", the $VIX can be hammered back below 20, and the market can rally into another truncated week, as planned.  

Have a great weekend, AA  

Market Update 1/12/22 - Breakout China!

 Seems like everything rallied yesterday; even Natural Gas, and China managed to breakout, with China 3X Leveraged Bull $YINN closing up 10%! 

China 

$FXI - 60 min view - Shorts squeezed

It's time to update the (above) chart, and wait and see what happens at the 50 day moving average, currently trending at the $38.08 level. I'm sure we'll get another opportunity to buy China... 

Oil

The big story being pumped by the lame stream financial fake news is Oil trading above $80. 

$WTIC - Texas Crude - trading into a mature H&S Pattern, with a 82.75 target. 

That chart has been added to the public charts area, even though I already have too many charts up

Looking at some of the energy names being pumped on CNBC: 

$OXY - #1 gainer on the $SPX - Retesting the 38.2% Fibonacci target 34.77. 

Halliburton - another top gainer... retesting the recent highs 

The big energy winner, and one that's been used to manipulate the $SPX, for as long as I can remember is EXXON Mobile. This is the one to watch! 

$XOM - probably gets pumped to a multi-year high, above the $72 level, before it's dumped. This is just how crooked the gangsters who run Wall Street are; valuation has no relevance, just squeeze the shorts, and take profits. But I believe there's something else going on here; see the Elliott wave Count!

$XOM  - DCS chart - Elliott wave count looks like a little throw-over out of the top of an expanding triangle. If this is correct; expect a violent reversal one the sugar wears off.    

Of course when the $SPX corrects energy has to lead the way down, and since $XOM drives the $SPX, the above chart has been added to the Public Charts Area.

Of course, Wall Street is not focused on the Fed, or earnings season, but on pumping and dumping this market ASAP, and the timing is starting to look like the end of Jan., because unless stocks rally into the end of 1st month of the year, heads are going to roll, faster than Jamie Dimon can say "get vaccinated, or else...". 

I'm also expecting financials to sell off, but probably not until earnings season kicks off next week. 

I think we could see a new high on the $SPX, but the market will probably consolidate lower first. 

In the meantime; I would be a seller of the $SPX above $VIX 20, and a buyer below $VIX 20. 

I'll also try to keep the short term $SPX charts - located in the Public Charts Area - updated. 

Later, AA 

Market Update 1/11/2022 - The Big Reversal in Tech Stocks

Just as predicted, we saw a big reversal in Tech, after yesterday's, (yet another) "Monday morning shakeout". At this point, the Monday morning shakeouts are recognized for what they are - bear raids - and I used it as an opportunity to add to my long positions. Again, 2022 is turning out to be a great year, for me, personally, so far. 

 Furious Rally Sends Nasdaq to Biggest Rebound Since March... bloomberg

Around mid-day I was watching bloomberg, when one of the hosts asked a very intelligent question, " do we know who's behind the selling"? 

Maybe it was the Najarian Brothers (again), or any of the other former gangsters who you will routinely see featured on CNBC.

I can't say for sure who's pulling the Monday morning shakeouts, but I recognize a bear raid when I see one, and this one was easy to spot. 

Side Note: There's a fine line between, catching a falling knife, and recognizing a little bear raid, for what it is, and unless you know how to spot the difference - using technical indicators (including charts) - then you're going to be better off sitting on your hands. 

As I tweeted yesterday morning: 

The bid on the $VXN was raised in order to take the NASDAQ down. Wish I could show the chart...

If you can chart, and know what to look for, then at least you knew where to start... but I try to keep certain charts close to my chest. 

I can show you a couple of examples of how the rug was pulled on the $SOX index

$SOX -  Technical support levels being taken out on the 10 min chart, isn't a coincidence. These are well coordinated bear raids. 

It's actually good to see the $SOX bulls get shaken out, even if these are relatively tiny moves. 

Something we still haven't seen, is for money to come out of the energy trade, but I am watching what looks like a topping pattern develop in the oil and gas drillers. 

If you're interested in the energy charts, donate at least $100, and request them in my twitter feed. 

A final word: 

If all you're trading in 2022, is the $SPX, then I'm afraid you're going to miss out on some explosive sector trading...  

Later, AA 

Market Update 1/10/22 - Outlook for Chinese Stocks in the New Year of the Tiger

 I remain bullish Chinese Stocks, even as they continue to sell-off, and even as the $FXI trades into a little bearish H&S pattern, but I got out of my long China trade last week, for obvious technical reasons. 

I'm looking to pull the trigger on China, once we see another good whoosh to the downside, and looking for things to pick up after the Chinese New Year (Feb. 1st). No doubt, we will want to be long, Monday of the following week, if not sooner! 

This is the year of the Tiger according to the Chinese calendar, and that basically means it's suppose to be a year for change, and in a grand (big/bold) way.  

Water Tiger years are filled with energy and excitement. Opportunities for those willing to take a risk or two ...

source: Chinese Astrology 2022 Year of the Water Tiger Paperback – November 9, 2021 - link to amazon

As far as US markets: We saw tech take another little leg lower, breaking the lower channel line, only slightly. It's sitting on the 150 day moving average, and that's pretty significant to some traders, and probably programs, as well.    

Of course you'd like to see a washout, on higher than normal volume, but the selling remains pretty orderly. 

I used Friday's weakness to cover my remaining short positions. 

If you're still short tech, then I suggest you watch the 50 day moving average, on the $SOX. 

I am expecting a crash in Semiconductors, and tech in general, but not straightaway, and probably not until Crypo crashes. 

We also need to see more bullishness, before Tech can crash, and that means the $VXN (the $NDX $VIX) needs to test the 20 level. 

I believe MLK day is next week, so monthly OPEX is going to fall on a truncated week, so watch for the manipulators to drive tech stocks up, and squeeze the short sellers, once again.

And Speaking of Short Squeezes: 

$ZNGA - up 50% this morning :) 

   

Take Care, AA