Market Update 10/29/2021 - Dull trading continues

 

Dull (boring) market conditions continue, as the G 20 - globalists, meet in Rome, on this final day of trading for Oct. 2021. 

The G-20 Becomes the Showpiece for a Dysfunctional Global Order (Washington Post)  

Nothing good ever comes out of the G 20, but traders don't sell into it either. 

This morning we did see a little bear raid at the open, but that was quickly quashed. 

Looks like a little bear raid. They raised the opening bid on the $VIX to just above res. Dirty tricksters pic.twitter.com/LYKv9lDY4L

— Veteran Market Timer (@3Xtraders) October 29, 2021

We were already seeing some weakness in Europe, supposedly because of the ECB's LaGarde's "halfhearted attempt to calm market's fears of coming rate hikes"? I'm only repeating what is being reported by Bloomberg. This would be the equivalent of the market fighting the fed, which isn't very likely. I'm just going to chalk that up to fake news, and Europe being hammered down in order to manipulate US futures. 

So I really got sidetracked this morning, because first I had to check Europe, and currencies, and before I knew it, the opening bell was about to ring! 

I did spend some time checking the $EURO, because this is what traders are looking at, when they say the market is ignoring the ECB. 

$EURO - rallying to the 50 day ma, isn't bullish, it's bearish. 

Of Course the EURO/$GBP bounce out of the whole as expected, but even that remains trapped in the same range it's been trading in for months. You can find that chart in the public charts area. 

To make a long story short, I didn't find anything usual in Europe, and no impending currency crisis,   

Maybe interest rates are going to rise, despite anything the ECB, or the Fed does, and the market didn't want to price in higher rates until after the ECB statement? It's the market that sets interest rates, not the Fed, or the ECB. 

That reminds me; the Fed reports next week, and that means the market is likely going to hold up, going into next week. We may see that news sold, but I'd expect a relief rally, followed by a possible sell off the following day - Thursday the 4th, or some time soon after...   

A few things need to happen. 1. Fed Reports. 2. $VIX washes out to a new recent low. 3. SPX rallies above 4600. 4. DOW 36k. 5. $NDX 16000.

Of course I'd like to see a lot of call buying as these targets approach, and then see the rug pulled, just ahead of Nov. OPEX (options expiration). 

We'll have to see how it plays out next week. 

Natural Gas sold off below the 20 day moving average today, while $KOLD has pierced the upper channel slightly. 

NatGas also took out a key FIB target, and filled the gap that was left behind last week. It's become somewhat unpredictable, as it continues to chop sideways, but I'm leaning short term bullish, on this gap fill. The only thing that worries me, is that the market may be fixed, and the G20 is going to hammer it down, because this seems to be their answer to any market they don't like.    

One bright spot has been the bearish reversal in China, and I'm looking to take profits on that trade shortly, but trading in Oct. has generally sucked. China overshot. and took a week to reverse, and now we have to wait for another topping process. 

$YANG (China Bear)

    

Good Luck, AA  

 

Market Update 10/28/2021 - The Return Of Mixed Markets

 Looks like we're back to mixed markets, although trading remains pretty dull. How dull is it? It was so dull I fell asleep in the afternoon, and didn't wake up until after the closing bell. I was a little surprised to see the DOW down so mush but the NASDAQ actually end up? 

I was also surprised to see that $FB continued to sell off, even as money continues to flow back into Tech. Is this a sector rotation? It's too soon to say, but we did see China pull back, and treasuries rally.  I could spend the whole blog on that, but it looks like someone is targeting Facebook, after I recommended it. and that means we're probably being watched, and targeted by some hedgies. This certainly wouldn't be the first time....   

$FB Strong Buy ahead of the Thanksgiving holiday short covering season  

$FB - long term chart - There's just a ton of support down here - Yesterday's low, 305, 295. Take your pick, or just keep adding.... 

 

I would sell Microsoft, and buy Facebook... because you know the controllers aren't going to allow 2 FAANG stocks to sell off at once. 

$MSFT - 

Speaking of "new highs", look what has happened to $IBM... 

$IBM - headline risk was "New (multiyear) Highs", being reported, back in June. I suppose I like it for a trade, after yesterday's little shakeout, and I'm already seeing it up in pre-market. 

So, "new highs", can actually be bearish. Maybe someone could explain this to the lame stream media? Remember when CNBC was reporting 50 new all time highs (for the year), on the $SPX. That was obviously - in hindsight - a bearish indicator.    

 Tesla "reaches a $trillion market cap, and all time new highs". just screams "bearish" to me, and especially when the top of the range confirms it. 

 

While we're looking at over-priced automobiles, let's check FORD, which we also see being pumped. 

$F - Taking one look at the chart - bearish. 

As long as we're looking at stocks. 

$HOOD  looks good - for a trade, and especially after Bloomberg made a point to report that it was trading below it's IPO price. Meaningless headline, designed to shake the weak hands.

Technically $HOOD #Robinhood doesn't look so bad, but Bloomberg #FakeNews has an agenda.... #Stocks pic.twitter.com/Msx4bwtHGq

— Veteran Market Timer (@3Xtraders) October 27, 2021

 How 'bout the new high on the $NYSE?! 

$NYSE - holds up for 3 days, before breaking. This is the reason I added this chart to the public charts area! 

$SPX - makes a new all time high. Most technicians thought once the pattern broke, and the 50 day moving average with it, that the market couldn't rally back to a new all time high, but they were wrong. 

As far as timing the trade: 

1. The ECB reports today, and they are expected to stand pat, regardless of the main stream media hyperventilating over inflation worries. I think that's probably why we saw the Bond vigilantes capitulate yesterday. 

 2. $SPX can certainly retest yesterday's high, and take out the 4600 target, and tomorrow is weekly OPEX. 

3. The 10 minute $VIX, remains market bullish. 

$VIX #1 - broke out of the down-turned triangle, and hit res. This is a bear trap... 

$VIX #2 - trades into another down-turned triangle. No change. 

Good luck timing the reversal, with Nov. OPEX coming fast, and Thanksgiving short covering season, starting around the same time. 

I'm sure we'll find a window for a pullback, but just not sure exactly where. Maybe a Monday morning surprise, followed by a shakeout into the end of OCT? But that allow much time for a pullback. 

Another possibility is that we see a sector rotation out of Bond yields, and Energy, and financials. 

$NDX (big Tech) Can the $NDX continue to rally to new highs? The 16000 target seems almost guaranteed. 

Take Care, AA   

Market Update Oct 26th, 2021 - The Rally Continues As Predicted

 The Rally Continues As Predicted 

You may ask, how does he (I) get the market direction right , every day? I've spent countless hours trying to explain how I do it, and if you've followed be any length of time, you know it's a combination of things....  I used many of the same tools, everyone else uses, but I'm simply better at it, and I have many years of experience. I also don't allow my analysis to be influenced (skewed) by any outside forces, in fact most outside opinions are used as contrarian indicators. For instance: Just look at the Natural Gas bears who continue to make compete fools out of themselves! 

Looks like someone is trying to shake us out of the #NatGas trade lol pic.twitter.com/JrK0xTn8tu

— Veteran Market Timer (@3Xtraders) October 21, 2021

I suppose this helps explain why Natural Gas was up over 10% yesterday. Anther Monday morning short squeeze. Of course the "experts" blame cool weather, for the pop. Laughable 

The opening bid on NatGas was raised above the 50 day moving average. Maybe the Russians did it? They certainly have a lot to lose.... But I suspect this market is just being manipulated by the usual suspects.   

Russian's manipulating Nat Gas? I think so

$NATGAS  - up on decent volume - shorts squeezed as usual

If you're going to trade Natural Gas, here's a question you should know the answer to: When do Nov. Contracts expire? 26 OCT 2021 (CME) 

Massive Natural Gas Futures Rally Seen As Expiry Driven, Untied to Fundamental Shifts Sept 27th, 2021 (NGI) 

The $VIX - 

I see lot's of $VIX charts being thrown around on twitter, and best I can tell is 99% of them are wrong. I may get the $VIX wrong, once in a while, but get it wrong consistently, and it becomes just anther worthless indicator, just like the MACD, or the RSI.   

Bloomberg news is reporting than that this rally is earnings driven, and it is. 

Face Book - earning drives futures higher -  saw this coming a mile away. Before I even updated the chart, I could see it had been sold ahead of earnings, so that any bad news was already priced in.   

$FB #Facebook target $262 by Nov. 19 - Options Expiration #Stocks #StocksToBuy pic.twitter.com/LavS5oZeOt

— Veteran Market Timer (@3Xtraders) October 25, 2021

Of course $FB is going to be used to hold FAANG stocks up, so the 3X FAANG bear can be put back on the shelf for now. Wait for the reversal to take out yesterday's $FNGD buy target, rather than watch it bleed value over time, as leveraged ETFs tern to do in a flat market.  

Market Sentiment 

You'd think the market would be upset by sky rocketing energy costs, or rising interest rates, but the market is delusional. Market makers have even convinced themselves, that higher interest rates, are going to be good for the banks.    

One sector that we're seeing roll over this morning is metals 

Uranium, retests the highs. The short squeeze doesn't make it bullish. 

$GLD (Gold) I'm beginning to think Gold is going to continue to trade in a sideways range  (seen in purple) before we see another shake out. 

I have a couple good articles on Gold, and Silver manipulation, I'll share some other time.  

Looks like the DOW is going to break out at the open, putting the next target on the table. 

Didn't have time to mention, I added this short term DOW chart, to the mix. Didn't gap up, but is breaking out, nonetheless. Target looks like #Dow36k even; of course... pic.twitter.com/MSfKO6u7sz

— Veteran Market Timer (@3Xtraders) October 22, 2021

Oh yeah, Energy! 

Looks like it's already overshot the target. Just waiting for the reversal. 

$DJUSEN (Energy) LT chart - with stophunt added to the public charts 

I'm also looking at shorting Japan here, so watch for those charts, soon! 

Good luck, AA 

Market Update 10/25 - The week in review, and a look ahead at the week ahead

Looking back at Friday's market action. 

Remember the 5 min. $VIX chart we had been watching? We'll about the time that chart broke, we started seeing some selling, and we ended flat on the day. 

Even the 10 min. $VIX chart needed an update, before the end of the day, and I think we're going to be looking at a pullback before the end of the week, as possibly as soon as Technical Tuesday. 

$SPX - doji reversal candlestick spotted 

China finally took out my upside target - as tweeted   

There's my $FXI China target... #ChaChing! pic.twitter.com/52OZIQ76LZ

— Veteran Market Timer (@3Xtraders) October 22, 2021

$DJUSFN (Financials): 

Short term Financials look really toppy.  

Tech - The 3X FAANG bear looks like it's ready to rock. 

$SOX looks toppy. 

Energy stocks rallied to a lower high, after breaking the st trend last week. Probably weekly OPEX was the only thing that held the sector up. 

 $DJUSEN (Energy)

$DJUSEN - another view of the same thing, but shows where support was bought. The green lines are what's known in the business as stair stepping, which is a well known technique for pumping stocks higher. There's nothing natural about it. This will continue for as long as Goldman Sachs and Citi, and/or whoever else is rigging the energy markets want....  

Exxon Mobil  is an energy name to watch - looks like a crash could be in order 

Oil can go to $90 

$BRENT - target looks like 91.25, but it could chop around in this range for months  

Natural Gas - seeing it up quite a bit this morning.  

$UNG (Natural Gas Fund) - if it opens above 19.50, then the bears are going to remain trapped for a while. Currently futures are only pointing at 19.40. Pattern is a down-turned triangle (seen in black)

guess that's about it  

Still waiting to see what the pullback looks like 

Good luck, AA 

Market Update 10/22/2021 - Looks like this rally can continue

Looks like this rally can continue 

 Probably not the headline you were expecting, but with only minutes before yesterday's closing bell, I realized that there's a strong possibility that the $VIX is about to break (lower). This is why you should always check my twitter page, and especially the pinned tweet (thread) for the latest updates.   

Tweeted: 

$VIX could definitely break lower tomorrow. and probably will. Weekly Options Expiration pic.twitter.com/q0RkjCUVml

— Veteran Market Timer (@3Xtraders) October 21, 2021

It seems everyone is still bearish, and that's usually a contrarian indicator. 

The market can hear no bearish news - fake or not - whatsoever, so trade the market you have, not the one you feel you want. 

 Remember everyone was bearish last month, when I was calling for a 1000 point rally on the DOW, and now that we've seen exactly that, the perma-bears remain bearish. At least Morgan Stanley has tones down their rhetoric, after eating crow.  

I was talking about the traders on Fast Money yesterday, and how they were all bearish, and one of them even mentioned that the $VIX was trading at 15, and that this is somehow a bearish signal? I may not have as much experience as most those FM traders, but I can tell you with complete confidence that, that $VIX 15 doesn't even come close to registering market complacency. 

The $VIX

$VIX  - (10 min chart) the trend is lower. This is going to be one of those moments, where you're going to have to trade the market you have, not the one you want. IF the $VIX breaks out of it's death spiral, then you're going to see the market correct, but if the trend on the $VIX continues, it can continue right into the end of the year, or a $VIX that trades in the 12's - whichever comes first. 

Public Charts Update 

Trying to keep the Public charts organized and up to date, has already cause me undue stress, so I'm afraid I'm going to have to take most the charts down. Even trading something like Energy requires comparing at least half a dozen different charts, and it's just too much work.... Energy broke the st trend yesterday, by the way. Maybe Energy tanks, and that eases inflation worries? That could cause metals to reverse as well as Bonds. When deflation returns, there will be no reason to raise rates, or even taper....    

I'll leave some long term chart views up, which seldom require updating, but other charts have already started coming down. I'll try not to pull them all down at once. 

I added a super-long-term view of the $BANK index yesterday:

$BANK - Trades on the NASDAQ and probably holds a lot of fintech. . It has been leading....  5000 is a huge psychological target! Could break out, from here, pullback, or only consolidate (slightly lower). I'd expect the latter.  

I also added a currency chart; looks like a capitulation point for the Chinese currency, trading against the $YEN. Not sure what this means in the big picture, but could be something geopolitical, and Biden was just seen threatening military action against China.  

After Biden says US would defend Taiwan from attack, China says there's 'no room for compromise' (fox)

$YUAN/$YEN  - looks like capitulation 

   

$SNAP misses earning, and you would expect it to be down, but when you see the bid lowered to (just) below the 50 day moving average, you know it's pure manipulation, planned weeks in advance. The crooked banks probably know what's in the earnings report, before it's even filed. They only use the news as a catalyst to spook investors.

Random Charts 

$NFLX (NetFlix) rallies into the top of the same pattern it's been trading in for months. That's not bullis.        

China can go a couple points higher, as I tweeted yesterday, but I'm not seeing the evergrande story, helping China much. 

$EGRNF Evergrande 

Take Care, AA 

Market Update 10/21/21 - surveying the damage after yesterday's big reversal

 You're probably asking, "what damage..?", "what reversal"? '

The damage in Fast Money Favorite, the $NDAQ, down over 4% yesterday. No wonder the show's participants were all bearish, and looking like they had seen a ghost, yesterday!

$NDAQ  - gives back 5 days worth of gains in yesterday's session. Also see the selling volume! That confirms the panic... and this was no accident! Could be I had something to do with it, but you can never prove it. 

I don't usually watch the show, or go out of my way to troll the Fast Money crew, but I caught a few minutes, yesterday, and then I was reminded that I had warned Guy Adami, just days earlier 

And tech #stocks are off limits unless the NASDAQ chart can be repaired. Don't be an idiot pic.twitter.com/7xJLvPnrEz

— Veteran Market Timer (@3Xtraders) October 15, 2021

Speaking of the NASDAQ 

$QQQ Target being taken out, and closes the day flat, regardless of fake new highs on the DOW. As I've been saying for weeks, the DOW lags, so it makes sense that it would top out last   

Looking back at the past few weeks: 

The Transports led the DOW, and that was never even reported. These fools at the networks, know dow theory, but they don't like focusing on facts. Instead they spend a lot of time trying to promote the use of experimental vaccines on children! This is all going to backfire, as people refuse to allow themselves, or their Children to be used - by the industrial pharmaceutical complex - as guinea pigs. It's bad enough they're trying to force adults to get "jabbed", with an unproven vaccinated, but children are at very low risk....  

The controllers continue to insist that the vaccine is safe and effective, but there is plenty of scientific evidence of the contrary, and they can't even be honest about who created the virus in the first place, when the powers that be have been splicing bat viruses - to make them more virulent - since 2013!

Engineered bat virus stirs debate over risky research  (nature)

 

 Don't expect that to be reported by the vax pushers in the msm. They've always pushed the seasonal flu vaccine, and even helped coin the phrase "anti-vaxxer, to describe people who like to think for themselves. Just google search the term AV, and you'll see what I mean.  

What's killing people, besides a lab made corona-virus? 

UK Records Its Highest Daily Death Toll Since March (skynews) 

Related: England & Wales More People Are Dying But Not From Covid (lakesuperiornews) 

Getting back to the Wall Street Rally (in hindsight) 

China  led, and I caught some nice gains there. This was 10X the trade that the DOW rebound was. 

$YINN is up $4 from where I called out the $FXI trade on Oct 7th. 

$TPOR is up even more, after overshooting the target!  

Note: I never alerted to the $TPOR trade, and for good reason. "Loose lips sink ships".   

Funny that the lame stream media is reporting that the Dow hit an all time high, but they fail to mention the $NYSE (which is far more diversified) broke out to a new highs, the day before.... They only seem to care what the $SPX is doing, as if that's all that matters. 

$WSLH (The Wilshire 5000) double topped, and could certainly take out the previous high, before the weekend. I would give that a high probability since double tops are seldomly sold. Better to breakout to new highs, before pulling the rug out!  This creates a lot more bag holders, which is exactly what the market makers want.  

China 

I know I've downplayed the Chinese property bubble (collapse), as reported by the lame stream media, but what they fail to report is the truth about crumbling ghost cities, while only pointing to Evergrande... which is just the tip of the iceberg! 

And why does Bloomberg wait until today, to reveal how bullish BlackRock, and $UBS, are on China, when this is a 3 week old story (as Reported by Reuters)? Sounds like the controllers, behind the scenes, want to create a whole new class of bag-holders, as they unload their shares! 

I guess only time will tell which sector is going to be dumped next, but there's a very good chance it's China, as Evergrande shares plunge 12.5%....

Final Thoughts: 

How 'bout that 5 minute $VIX, call yesterday afternoon, just as fear returned...! 

$VIX - see yesterday's blog for the big view, because the 5 min. chart can break in a New York Minute ST watch the 200 ma, and especially the 16 level. 

I'm running late this morning, and see the 5 min. $VIX trading above the 50 day ma. Maybe I'll add this chart to the public charts area.

Is there really a recovery, or just the hope of one, that's already been priced in? And what about the national debt, China, and the horribly broken supply lines? Not to mention that we have a deranged impostor in the White House. How much longer can Wall Street remain irrational?   

Good Luck, AA 

Market Update 10/20/2021 - Stocks Trade to All Time Highs!

 Looks like The financial fake news forgot to report yesterday's all time market high - on the $NYSE - but most traders are overly focused on the highly manipulated #SPY, and the QQQ's, and other nonsense.   

$NYSE - New market high! 

I think the market can continue to struggle at the top of that range for another day or 3, before correcting back to the lower end of the range, but I've already taken profits, and added to my short positions, accordingly. 

My bearish outlook, lines up with what I'm seeing on the $VIX, and futures look weak. 

 $VIX (weekly view) - this chart won't be found in the public charts area. 

 

The NASDAQ $VIX (the $VXN) can go a little lower. Watch the 17.40 area. 

$VVIX ($VIX of the $VIX) already bounced out of the hole. This was about the time, I started tweeting $VIX charts, yesterday. More on that in a moment. 

Today I heard CNBC talking about investor sentiment taking a dive, but investors no longer have much control over this market; when algorithmic trading makes up 80% of trading volume. In most cases, the money comes out of your paycheck, and it's automatically invested, in tech stocks. The exception to the rule would be, if you're a boomer, living on a fixed income. Then you wouldn't have much, if any, allocation devoted to tech stocks, but you'd still be mostly invested in the rigged US stock market, and you're retirement pension is probably in there as well. That seems like a lot of risk to me, and if I were a money manager, I'd encourage folks to invest in all kinds of diversified assets, including farm land, and antiques, but I suppose there's no way to skim the profits off those types of transactions.    

I've only been trading since 2007, and I can remember a time when the market would predictably trade according to investor sentiment. Sentiment would reach an extreme, and then the tide would turn bearish, until bearishness reached an extreme. I watched this process play out enough times to know that the market no longer trades on sentiment. Sure, I can till use sentiment indicators to recognize an oversold condition, but the machines are in control. Elliott Wave Theory, and pattern trading, no longer works like it used to. You're better off watching moving averages, and Fibonacci ratios, which seem to be the main methods used by the programmers.      

 I've pointed out a lot of this over the past few months, but I'm still trying to wrap my head around, how the pentameters the machines are using to control the market, and I'm getting closer every day. 

$VIX - 5 min. view. - you wouldn't think a 5 min view of the $VIX would work so well, but seeing is believing! See the 50 X 5 min. moving average being sold, even going into yesterday's close? 

I first noticed the 5 min. VIX jump above the 20 ma, on my phone, and at the same time, stocks started to roll over. Then I returned to my trading desk, to have a better look at it, and that's what I found. $VIX res. looks like 16.5 on the 5 min. chart. I think the market doesn't correct until next week, but certain sectors could lead a correction, without most traders noticing. 

Take Care, AA 

ssss

       

Market Update 10/19 - Waiting For Investors To Get A Clue

 Yesterday we saw the market end flat, and on a bearish candle, after money managers rushed in to buy the $SPX 4450, and Dow 35,000 levels. Nice round numbers. As you can see on the chart below, that does not back-test support. 

Please try again!    

$INDU - wait for a gap fill, and then wait for confirmation of a continuing rally. 

The fake financial news wants to talk about "5 day winning streaks", but after trading sideways for several months, I have serious questions about weather this is a sustainable rally. 

I've been incredibly fortunate, over the past few *months, and that's because I have very careful when choosing entry and exit points. Let other traders chase rigged OPEX rallies. 

$NYSE (The New Your Stock Exchange) - Not really sure where the market goes from here, and uncertain of the wave count. Few traders have made a penny trading this sideways pattern, and especially when CNBC continues to report "50 new market highs" over the same *period.  

$QQQ - the bid was raised above support, at yesterday's open. 

There's a lot of chatter about Netflix earnings this morning. I'd say it's defiantly going slightly higher - in a little throw-over (out of the top of the triangle) before reversing.   

Natural Gas 

Thought it would find support above the 20 day ma, but that didn't happen. 

$UNG looks like it might bounce out of the hole this morning, and could still trade to new recent highs - in one of my favorite a topping patterns. If we see is go a little lower, the 50 day moving average  is trading at 16.95. Mark it!  

$KOLD 3X NatGas Bear - We're about to find out if the Hedge Funds are manipulating Natural Gas by shorting the leveraged Nat Gas bear fund. I've been waiting weeks for this moment! 

The 3X Long NatGas bull is $BOIL, but charting 3X bull funds is futile. 

Checking the 3Xtraders Public Charts area, to see if anything else is work trading 

#SOX (Semiconductor Index)  chart added. The court jester, J. Cramer, gave the "all clear" on this one yesterday, but watch the 50 day ma! 

 If you're looking to trade into the 3X $SOX Bear, try the 6-6.25 level. I'll even add the chart to the public charts area.  

Gold gets a bounce!  

$GLD (paper gold) to regain the 5 day moving average. Not really seeing a trade there, unless it can break out of the bearish channel, it's trading in, and get some traction, above the 200 day ma. 

Same goes for SILVER 

$SLV (silver) - continues to trade in a bearish channel 

Silver did bounce off key support @ 21.40. See the long term chart - located in the PC area. 

Here's one to add to the public charts 

Long the Euro/GBP reversal! 

Good luck, AA