Market Update 3/31/22 - New Bearish Chart - Prediction

We're obviously not seeing buying accelerate - after Tuesday's gap above the 200 day ma - so I decided to put my bear hat on, and go back to the drawing board. It's not that I'm overly bearish, it's just that the volatility remains super high, and once the $VIX is allowed to run above 20 again, there will be more selling. The $VIX is already oversold, but you seldom see the rug pulled at the beginning of a quarter 

The beginning of an extended bear market - which is looking more and more likely - is always choppy, so I came up with the choppiest chart view I could.    

DOW   - gaps up (rigged) above the 200 day moving average on Q1 window dressing. Now the crooks can take their time loading the algos, and building massive short positions.   

From there, we'll see the market rally into May OPEX, and even back to the 34.6 level, by the middle of the summer - in an A-B-C correction.  

I don't usually make long term predictions, but now - after 3 months - there's a clear pattern (a (down-turned expanding triangle), a pattern 95% of traders don't even know exists. 

I'm not going to offer any targets for the $SPX, but you can chart, if should be easy enough to figure out on your own.  

Good luck, AA  

  

Market Update 3/30/22 - Hostage Situation Day 11

I've been charting my as off, since 5AM, this morning, trying to find a technical reason, for the 3% gains we saw in Europe, on Tuesday? The closest thing I could find was that the EEM bounced back to the top of a range, seen on the chart below, but I must be missing something.   

$EEM  - Gaps back to the top of the range 

Yesterday was day 11 of the (trapped) bear hostage situation, and the manipulators have continued to drive FAANG stocks higher, for as many days, namely $AAPL. Just goes to show the bulls always return to what has worked in the past. 

 You know where I like Apple? $55 

$AAPL 

This morning you see them rushing back into Energy, because that has worked... 

What also has worked in the past, is to drive stocks up into the end of the first quarter, and we haven't seen a rally like this since the covid induced bullish market reversal of March 2020.  I touched on this in yesterday's update, and I hope you never look at cycle (cyclical) trading the same way again. 

What comes next? Passover, and Easter, of course! The coming holiday will keep short sellers from adding to their positions, and the manipulators know this, and will use it to their advantage. They can either continue to keep the bears  trapped, going into April Options Expiration, or 2. They could take profits..., knowing they'll have an easier time controlling the $VIX, on light holiday volume. Either way, the bulls are going to win. 

I did find some interesting things in the charts, such as money pouring into the $UAE, and considering that the Saudi's continue to do business with Russia, I think I have a good idea where a low of of that money is coming from. That's right, Russia! 

This could mean the end for the petro-dollar! 

See: 

How Petrodollars Affect the U.S. Dollar Investopedia 

$UAE United Arab Emirates - Holy cow, the Saudis must really love Joe Biden, and the war hawks in Washington!   

On a lighter note, I just got another account to manage - that's 4 now - and I have to allocate that money... and can you guess where it's not going? Well, it's not going into Emerging markets, or big tech. It's going into cash, and I suggest that's the safest place, for at least the next few months.  

If the market had any common sense it would be selling off on any rumor of a ceasefire. 

2. The market should be crashing considering that we have a senile old man making disturbing gafs all over the place, and we have an incompetent, vice president, Kamala Harris, waiting in the wings.

 Kamala Harris fumbles & bumbles her way through Ukraine bostonherald 

We're only 1 cyberattack (legitimate, or false flag) away from a total market collapse 

The $VIX took out my wave 5 target yesterday. Could see another shakeout I guess, if a cease fire is declared, but the $VIX has been shorted long enough, I think 

$VIX -    10 min view 

As far as Elliott Wave Analysis goes, the trend remains lower. All I had to do was readjust the $SOX chart to find the same down-turned wedge, or triangle pattern.

$SOX  - possible powerful wave "C". 

If Transports can't lead the Dow higher, and $SOX can't lead tech higher, then there is no bull market. 

Take Care, AA 

Market Update 3/29/22 - End Of the Quarter Window Dressing Continues

 Didn't I tell you they'd put some lipstick on this pig, - of a market - dress her up, and send her to the dance, before the end of the quarter? I think I heard it reported - by the financial fake news - yesterday, that the $SPX is only down 6% for the year, as if that's bullish... 

We also saw Jim Cramer call the bottom in the "bear market"(that never was...), and I believe he has a direct relationship with whoever is in charge of rigging these markets, be it the fed, or the US Treasury. Remember he's a Goldman Sachs insider! 

The truth is we haven't seen a real bear market in US markets - ex energy - since '08, and even that was cut short by the market controllers. 

$VIX - seeing this indicator being driven back below 20, which is taken as a bullish signal by more investors, and buying programs, alike so that's the number to watch. 

I'm rather surprised to see the $VIX hammered below the 200 day moving average ( at the bottom of the pattern), and that is another target to watch. 

I would also be watching the $RVX, and the VIX of the $VIX (the $VVIX), which is testing 200 week moving average. 

The DOW is finally driven above the 200 day moving average.  I suppose Joe Biden talking crazy, was the reason we couldn't accomplish this last week. 

Is this man fit for office? Doctors say they would be concerned about 'anyone' with Joe Biden's symptoms at age 78 after two brain aneurysms (dailymail) 

This is scary times we live in, and every day a little closer to a global collapse, and financial reset.   

The long term charts concern me - as I'm seeing bearish hanging men doji (reversal candles) develop - in foreign markets, and certain US markets - so I'm not on board with this rally, even if it continues into the beginning of April.   

 

$FEZ Without giving away too much; here's a good example of a "hanging man" candle....   

You'll find the same thing on the $DAX - another one of my favorite leading market indicators.

Of course this is going to look like a bullish hammer to most market participants, but just looks like a powerful counter trend rally to me. 
 

A reminder: 

1.Going into the end of 2021, we saw stocks driven to new all time highs, only in order to defer capital gains taxes. 

2. We saw profit taking in 2022. 

3. We see dip buyers rush in, and window dressing, at the end of the quarter. 

4. I believe profit taking will continue shortly - see the chart below. 

$GDOW The Global Dow chart added to stockcharts - in the public charts area - for all to see.   

The above chart confirms everything I've been blogging for the past few years. Market manipulation, on a grand scale, and especially going into the holidays (EOY).  

Of course we may only get a pullback, and a continuing rally, but we'll have to wait and see what it looks like, or does the breakout just continue? 

$WSLH  - is breaking out above the 200 day ma. 

 

NASDAQ - does look like a breakout on some chart views, but I can't rule out a bear market rally 

Regardless of if this is a bear market rally, or not, I've never seen stocks correct on April 1st, and this year the first mutual fund Monday - of the month - is next week [correction edit], so, stocks may actually continue to hold up into next week... as MM's are forced to chase performance.

Short of a first strike on the US, by Russia, It's hard to see how we could get a correction this week. 

Good luck, AA 

Market Update 3/24/22 - You Really Gotta See This!

 In the last update I showed you how the controllers - or quant trading programs - were selling the $VIX, using a 5 min. chart, which is just craziness. 

Well yesterday, I open up my trading app, to check $VIX and I see the $VIX being hammered - Jim Cramer style - at the 5 day moving average!  THE 5 DAY..! 

$VIX is hammered down at the 5 day ma pic.twitter.com/q0Ii4JmzD0

— Veteran Market Timer (@3Xtraders) March 23, 2022

This leaves me wondering, "is this is the new normal"; or is this something that's been going on for years, and I'm just now discovering it? I think I would've noticed this sooner, if it was a thing, because I have played around with every timeline, and indicator, over the years. 

This would help explain why many chart views no longer work, as I've pointed out in past blogs - as well as why we see markets become extremely overbought to the point where a correction looks like, what can only be described as a "market crash", like the mini-crash we saw when the covid story was finally allowed to be broadcast. I mean, who didn't see that coming, 1 day after an OPEX (Options Expiration) date? More on this topic, later....    

This comes back to the question, who's doing it? 

The lame stream media likes to blame reddit traders every time the market does crazy things, calling them "meme trades", yet "there's nothing new under the sun". We always see short squeezes this time of year, why should this year be any different? And the same goes for Gasoline, being driven higher, ahead of the summer driving season. Nothing new...  

Retail investors cheating vs the crooked banks (hedge-funds) 

Any group of investors, or pseudo hedge fund, armed with a gaming (chat) app, such as Discord, could coordinate their efforts to manipulated nearly any market, but I believe it's actually the hedge funds, who are behind this. The same hedge funds the fed bailed out in the last - 30 day - market crash, by recklessly, and quite unnecessarily printing trillions of dollars, in order to save the already over-priced ponzi-market, and the corrupt hedge funds, who perpetually help (the fed) manipulate it. Remember this is a ponzi scheme, after all...  

It's no wonder they respond by putting that money back to work driving high risk - high beta, commodities, and crypos - of all things - rather than investing long term, in the fake bull market in stocks. I call it a fake bull market, because the majority of stocks do not go up, only a select few, in order to rig one index or another. 

If you're going to bail out bad behavior, then you should expect more bad behavior. 

This is what the new normal looks like. 

I think the fed banks, and their overseas partners (in crime) know it's not going to end well. They see a day of reckoning on the horizon, just as I do, and their solution is to start WWIII, What better distraction... from a problem they themselves created? 

This also explains why ever narrative created by those who own the mass distraction media, reads like a bad soap opera. It's so ridiculous, the I can't even watch television with the sound turned up anymore, and it's no wonder you see so many millennials cutting their cable, in search of better - paid/ streaming - entertainment. Good luck with that! 

 So where is the market going?

If you have to ask that question, then you obviously didn't realize the $VIX is being manipulated, yesterday. Futures are up, of course. 

As I predicted yesterday, window dressing will continue into the end of the quarter, although most firms will close their books - for Q1 - this week, and then we'll probably see another nasty correction. 

I'm still not too impressed with this rally, and I'm not the only one seeing a good possibility for lowers lows before the summer. 

$WLSH - this looks like your typical impulse wave in a bear market. Volume doesn't point to any sort of conviction... only retail short covering.    

 

AA        

   

Market Update 3/22/22 - You gotta see this!

 The momentum of last week, plus the fact that this is window dressing season (at the end of the quarter), continues to hold the market up, but there's something else going on here. The $VIX is being sold (short) using a 5 min. chart view! 

You gotta see this! 

$VIX - 5 min. view - What's crazier than the fact that I sometimes check a 5 min. $VIX chart, is that anyone would be shorting the $VIX, using this 5 min. chart view!  

I'm not advising you trade the $VIX using a 5 min. chart, even though the short $VIX trade I called out a couple weeks ago has done pretty well. It's just that the leveraged $VIX ETF's ($SVXY) doesn't perform as well as it should, given the risk that volatility explodes higher. 

Yesterday, we got our doji candle, as the market ended the day flat, as predicted, but this morning we see futures higher? Not really sure what to make of this, except that the $SPX wants to test the 4520 level, on a higher $VIX. Next res. after that would be the 4545 level.  

China also remains stubbornly high, after last weeks massive short squeeze  

$FXI China 

I can't say why Oil and energy was higher yesterday, but I used that as a selling opportunity

$OIH - Oil, and Oil drillers - Watch for wave 5 to complete before the end of the month 

No sooner than you see inexperienced traders get bullish on energy, the bottom will drop out.

Natural Gas  

It's amazing to see Natural gas continue to hold up in the $5 range, when support is closer to $3 - $4 

I'm not going to reveal what I'm seeing on half a dozen natgas charts, but LT res. is 4.93. and we just saw a golden cross on the daily moving averages, around the $4.40 level. 

$UNG - Natgas fund - Short term it been trading in a range all month, and that will likely continue, despite the rhetoric coming out of Washington 

 

If what just happened to short sellers in the nickle market scares you - and it should - then you shouldn't trade Natural Gas, because this can be just as volatile.  

Usually Oil and Natural Gas run in opposite directions, but all commodities are in a bubble, and that is about to burst, in a big way, along with every other global ponzi market, I'm afraid.  

 Good luck, AA 

Market Update 3/21/22 - The Monday Morning Hangover

The Monday Morning Hangover

Kind of saw this coming, after last weeks - rip your face off - rally. 

Most the public charts have been taken down. I'll leave this #SPX chart up there. Watch for a nasty Monday morning hangover pic.twitter.com/taRxLAHoEA

— Veteran Market Timer (@3Xtraders) March 18, 2022

As I said last week, I suspected this was only a short covering rally in a bear market, and I think maybe China needs to retest the lows.  

$KWEB - rallied like 50% last week, because nobody (including the short sellers) could have anticipated that the final target would fall short. See the green line....?  

That's right, now I'm bearish; now that Jon Najarian and others have collected on their March Call Optoins, it can go back and build a base.  

Window Dressing - in US equities - may continue into the end of this week, so we may not see any big moves to the downside until more money is put to work. 

Commodities could hold up into the Summer driving season, or May at least.   

Public Charts Updated 

Over the weekend I took most the charts down from the public charts area, as I want to leave the hedge funds high and dry. 1. No more $VIX targets. 2. No oil, or NatGas targets. 3. No China

I did leave 1 $SPX chart up - a daily candlestick chart. There it is trading about flat, as every other index craters.  

  The chart changed a little bit at Friday's close, as the $SPX wants to test the 200 day moving average - target - something I also predicted -  but did you know what the Wilshire 5000 is only testing the 50 day, and the same goes for the $SOX, and the QQQ's? Watch the moving averages, as always.    

Watch for a flat close today, as we see a doji reversal candle painted on the chart. From there consolidation (lower), with the chance of a panic Wave E developing.  

$SPX - possible shakeout below the 4000 level - in a declining, broadening, triangle, or wedge pattern 

I think given that China was a short squeeze, as was the rally in Europe, there's a good chance that we're going to see another shakeout - even to a lower recent low - ahead of a May rally. 

After last week, we shouldn't even see the $VIX get back about 29, and if it does, then you're going to see last weeks trade unwind in a hurry!  

Anyhow, for now, I think the easy money has been made. 

I was bullish the last few weeks, and especially going into the beginning of last week, but not I'm bearish. It's just a trade to me, I don't care if there's a recovery, or not. 

I laid out the bull case... and the rally continues #Bullish wins this OPEX #NASDAQ pic.twitter.com/PJR2mJdM0d

— Veteran Market Timer (@3Xtraders) March 18, 2022

Good luck trading this week, 

AA 

  

Market Update 3/17/22 - Historic - Once In A lifetime Trade

Back in Jan., I blogged: Market Update 1/21/22 - Best Trade Of The Year, which turned out to be in Natural Gas, and that this was shaping up to be one hell of a trading year, if you knew where to put money to work, rather than getting bogged down trading a facsimile of the broader market (#SPY), or Gold miners, or whatever else has lacked direction.  

Well, yesterday's short squeeze in Chinese stocks, and big tech, was what can only be described as historic, and I enjoyed every bit of it, as I started scaling into these trades on Monday and Tuesday, and and then patiently waited until later in the day (yesterday) to finally take profits in $YINN (up nearly 65%), and $FNGU up 35%! I manage 3 separate accounts, and this morning I'm ecstatic to report that all 3 are trading at record highs this morning. So far, this is the best quarter I've ever had, and the only downside is having to pay (estimated) short term capital gains, to a gangster government that doesn't represent me, or my values, and I'm serious about becoming an expat, if any foreign hedge funds are interested in making me a serious (lower, to mid. 6 figure) offer. 

There was a time, not so long ago, that I would've jumped to work for a hedge fund, but now I can be more selective.    

This is the best trading I've ever experienced in the 15 (or so) years I've been doing this, so I'm just savoring the moment, and planning to celebrate St. Patrick's Day with some prime corned beef brisket, which I put a homemade brine on, about a week ago.  

Alibaba - up 36% 

That probably my best call out on Twitter, and all you had to do was pull the trigger... 

Alibaba looks interesting here, but it's volatile af. Could easilly bounce back to $100 by April OPEX $BABA pic.twitter.com/7bfjgSzsky

— Veteran Market Timer (@3Xtraders) March 15, 2022

$DIDI Let's say you didn't have a ton of money to buy 1000 shares of Aliblabla, but you were willing to take on more risk.... you could've bought 1000 share of $DIDI for $2,300, on Tues., and you'd be up a cool, 40%! Again, Historic, given how obvious the oversold condition was, looking at the chart. 

$DIDI should be good for a bounce back to the 2.30 area, if you have a pair... and you're nimble. Good OPEX bet! #DIDI #China pic.twitter.com/p9jMsobQaE

— Veteran Market Timer (@3Xtraders) March 15, 2022

 If someone knows how much those options would be worth at tomorrows expiration, I'd like to know...? 

Weibo - even this one was up 20%! Created and tweeted the chart in real time. 

 $FXI chart (washout) tweeted the day before. All you had to do, was put the trade on. BOOM - 20% gains!  

The #Chinese sure know how to panic sell #Stocks lol pic.twitter.com/w1RVHbU3x9

— Veteran Market Timer (@3Xtraders) March 15, 2022

FAANG 

As far as FAANG stocks are concerned, I told you yesterday, that the hedge funds were heavily short big tech, judging by the lies they were spreading (about the NDX 100 $VIX) on Bloomberg, and elsewhere.  

$FNGD (the 3X Leveraged FAANG Bear Fund)  - 3X Look at the historic candles, not to mention the Russian bear trap that was set on Wed.  

Looks like Hedge Funds may become a thing of the past, if this trend of home-gamers' like me, outsmarting them at every turn continues, and I expect that I will..! 

If this was easy, I'd start a redit page, and take a bunch of people along with me, but being popular takes too much effort, and it's a distraction I don't need. Winning takes focus, and distraction is the enemy of focus. 

Oil up this morning, on more Russia fake news, and there's a lot more I could get into, but we've already run out of time. 

Take Care, and have a Happy St. Patrick's Day,

 AA 

Market Update 3/16/22 - Short Squeeze China Right On Schedule!

See the past few updates for the bullish setup we've seen developing for well over a week now, ahead of March Options Expiration, and due to the timing of this rally, coupled with today's fed announcement, I would expect the short sellers to be forced to continue buying Chinese stocks, all the way into the weekend. More on this when I reveal the $VIX chart. 

 I'm seeing this as a short squeeze, not a bullish reversal, and there's a big difference! Of course a short squeeze can last several weeks, and this one might.... and a bullish reversal always starts with a short squeeze, but time will tell.

 This is going to require constant charting, over the next few days, just to confirm the reversal, and making predictions - more than a week out - is foolishness. If you can get to the point where you can time the market a few day's out, and allow enough time for cash trades to settle, and take profits, you're killing it!   

It pisses me off when people ask me for targets and timelines, when we're still trying to confirm a reversal. This amounts to counting your chickens, before they've hatched, and that's for losers!  

Of course I wish I had doubled down on my China bets, yesterday morning, but it's good to keep some dry powder, for a rainy day. My trading style can only be described as aggressive, but that doesn't mean fast and loose, or reckless. It's more important than ever to practice proper money management. Hopefully I find the time to finish the book - the one I started years ago - because I think even the most seasoned traders would get some useful information out of it. The market has changed a lot over the past few years, and my trading style has had to adapt, to fit the new normal. 

One thing that thankfully hasn't changed, is a good old fashioned market crash, and I'm not talking about Oil. Bloomberg was calling this 30% pullback in oil a "crash", yesterday, and that just proves that the more that the more they talk, the more foolish they sound.   

By the way: If you'd like to get my take on Oil, donate $100 to the website, and PM me. 

Don't let emotion (fear or greed) control your trade    

Instead of giving away more free targets, I'm going to give you some good trading advice. Trade what is moving. trade what is crashing, but don't chase a crash, unless the fear - as measured by the $VIX - can be verified. Why? Because the lame stream media can call something a crash 5 days a week, and even point to the risk of WWIII, but at the end of the day, fear is measured by the $VIX. 

The $VIX has been propped up, long enough 

The FED Banks have been shorting the $VIX, at least since '08. Nothing new

— Veteran Market Timer (@3Xtraders) March 10, 2022

Yes, the $VIX is rigged, and especially when the Powers that Be, decide to juice the market with more free money, but you still have to trust the $VIX above all else. I've been reading the $VIX for over 10 years, and it deserves an entire chapter in the book.  

Can't trust the main stream media, or social media        

I run across a lot of fake accounts on twitter - probably run by unscrupulous hedge funds - trying to convince people that the $VIX is going to go higher. What is that? That's planting seeds of emotion, to help sabotage your trade, and only a crooked hedge fund would attempt to benefit from such mind-fuckery. Like I said last week, these are "dirty bastards", who are trying to steal your money. 

The Charts 

I did a lot of charting yesterday - several hours - and by the end of the day this rally looks like the last few dead cat bounces, but in hindsight I think I could've ended the day more bullish, based on the $VIX chart. 

$VIX - do you realize we haven't seen a higher high on the $VIX for more than a month? That doesn't point to nuclear annihilation, any time in the near future.  

But what about the NASDAQ 100 $VIX? No... some liar was invited to come on Bloomberg, and make the claim, that somehow the NASDAQ $VIX is more scary, but this is their MO! Claim to have timely information, and then lie your ass off. And the icing on the cake is that they like to push political agendas, to a captive audience, when that has nothing to do with trading, or investing! It's evil.     

$NASDAQ 100 $VIX (the $VXN) is no more "elevated", than the regular $VIX. Some schnister on Bloomberg lying...

— Veteran Market Timer (@3Xtraders) March 10, 2022

Exactly what I would expect from the dishonest Micheal Bloomberg network, and a crooked hedge fund manager. 

$VIX - is set to plunge into what looks like a powerful wave 3. 

Take Care, AA 

 

Market Update 3/15/22 - Taking Another Look at Chinese Internet Stocks

I could have entitled this blog: "Wall Street Gets It Wrong Again!", after seeing what's happening to Chinese Internet Stocks, not to mention Russia... and now Oil? How dumb is Wall Street?    

 China Headline Dec. 14th, 2021:

Wall Street Gets Increasingly Bullish on China

 Goldman strategists join JPMorgan in bullish call on China bloomberg

 BUT WAIT! It was not that long ago, that financial fake news network CBNC was seen marketing Chinese junk like Alibaba, to unsuspecting investors! 

There was a time to be bullish on Alibaba, for a trade, but it takes a special kind of stupid to invest in Communist countries.  

A prediction from almost a year ago: 

Sell this POC too. No more Chinese junk for $1. Only #WWIII to look forward to. $DG pic.twitter.com/lcuHECcfPo

— Veteran Market Timer (@3Xtraders) April 1, 2020

$BABA (Alibaba) - red-arrowed in Oct 2021 

 Have you once heard CNBC retract all the pumping they performed on Chinese Internet Stocks. How about Jim Cramer...? "Oh sorry, we were wrong when we compared $BIDU to google?!" No! These people have no shame!

 $BIDU - support breaks at my red line - investors robbed.

 Today, I see China the same way I did in 2015; Should be good for a trade, as the short sellers cover ahead of the summer, and since a fool is born every minute; money managers will be forced to invest in Chinese junk. 

 $KWEB Chinese Internet - Strong Buy. Could take several months, to more than a yea, to test the 200 day moving average; Not for the impatient, or the faint of heart.

I'll be adding that chart to the Public Charts Area, as soon as today.

Oil and Energy 

Looks like I was right again, when I warned investors not to chase the ridiculously overbought oil trade, it can't even be compared to the run up in '08. It's beyond dumb; It's more like a reddit trade.

$BRENT - Pulls back to my Target. That didn't take long, at least! Now I want to be a buyer of oil!

 

Could even pull back to the $93 level - the breakout point. 

As you can see, the above trades have no basis in reality, and this is why I trade technical targets, rather than fake news, or so called fundamentals! This is also why I got away from trading, for a little while, after the market continued higher, in early 2020. I know a rigged, and overbought market, when I see it! I only returned in 2021, in order to find the top...  

One thing I've learned trading over the years, actually 2 things: 

1. I think you can never become overly cynical, when it comes to markets.

 2. To quote one of my favorite lines from the movie Scar Face, "never under-estimate the other guys greed!

 

A Death Cross! 

I pointed this out in yesterday's trade, and of course the idiots at CNBC were seen pointing to it this "death cross", this morning, because they seem to follow everything I do, and say, and I suspect every trader over there is bearish, which would be a great contrarian indicator! 

 $SPX - yesterday's chart - the "death cross" sounds spooky - for what that's worth - but it's a lagging indicator (a dud). Kind of like the "bear market" classification, the lame stream media uses, to try to scare investors.   

The level to watch is the 4200 level. $VIX was only up 4% today. Just enough to keep investors on edge pic.twitter.com/dwIFpKiDE7

— Veteran Market Timer (@3Xtraders) March 14, 2022

Good Luck this week, AA

Market Update 3/14/22 - The Rout in Chinese Equities Continues

First the Fake News Headlines:

Wall Street's China Stock Rout Nears Dot-Com Crash Levels

 Bloomberg

I don't have time to do a thorough comparison between the crash in the Chinese Golden Dragon Index, and the .com crash, but I did chart the golden dragon ETF ($PGJ) this morning. 

$PGJ China - This is looking pretty ripe. You can see the bearish channel is about to complete, and I see an upside target of nearly double today's price, at the 200 day. Short covering, going into the summer, is the only catalyst that's needed, for a massive rally. 

I started recommending China again, last week, but haven't actually pulled the trigger on $YINN, just yet... but I'll be doing so very shortly! 

They say that, "March comes in like a lion, and out like a lamb", and I think that is going to hold true for global equities this year. 

The Fed

Watch for the fed to remove a lot of uncertainty from the market this week, giving investors the green light to buy stocks, and dress the windows going into March OPEX, and the end of Q1.  

In other words, this looks like a very bullish setup. 

Market Update 3/11/22 - The Weekly Wrap-up

 This week, we saw the broader market continue to consolidate in the lower end of the range. 

We saw the technical top in Oil sold, on news that Russian oil is going to be sanctioned. 

Buy the rumor, sell the news thebalance.com 

$BRENT - Should get a tradable dead cat bounce off the top of my black line, around $100 a barrel. This ensures that the criminal banking cartel get's paid on their $100 contracts for several months, into the future. Rigged Options Market; Mission accomplished!  

$USO - $70 target 

From there Oil and gasoline should remain elevated, going into the summer driving season. 

 $URA - Here's a good example of what I'm expecting oil to do. Snap back into a bearish pattern 

Money Managers face deep losses on $170bn in Russian assets ft.com

I could've ended up on the wrong side of the Russia trade, but I decided to take my time scaling in... I never did pull the trigger on Russian assets, and now the fund has been de-listed.  

And even worse trade would have been caught in a bear trap, in the nickel market, before that market closed. 

If US markets lose 10% in a day, they will also be shut down, by the plunge protection team. 

Just goes to show, the powers that be, will openly manipulate markets, anytime they want, and call it the "new normal",as they have to do, every few years. 

What's amazing to me it how many traders believe that we're trading a free and open market. Look the whole thing is rigged, and has been rigged for a very long time! The fact that honest people continue to invest their 401k, and Pension, in the greatest ponzi scheme the world has ever seen, doesn't make it an honest market. 

WASHINGTON HAS A PLUNGE PROTECTION TEAM? Reuters 

I'm not sure how long we can go on like this before we see another great depression, but if things get too ugly they can just close the markets, and the banks, and ban the ownership of gold.  

How long before they close oil markets to speculators? There are already too many traders, and too many trading platforms, and this trend is bound to reverse, and that means 90% of new traders, are about to lose everything, and have no idea what is coming. 

Today they blame Russia, and tomorrow they will blame oil speculators. 

$ICE - prime example of a saturated oil market 

 

2 years without a correction is an awfully long time!

Perhaps if the fed goes to negative rates, using Russia as an excuse... and then Russia and Ukraine kiss and makeup, and that crashes commodities markets, then maybe we can return to deflation in the headlines, this rally could continue for another few months?  

$NYSE - from the Public Charts area - looks like wave 5 to me. 

   

Take care, AA 

Market Update 3/10/22 - Charts Updated

 Quick Update - I updated the Public Charts area this morning, added an Energy, a China chart, and several other charts....

China in Focus We're seeing a nice flush in Chinese stocks, while the propaganda - mass media - of distraction, wants you to focus on Ukraine. 

$FXI - I'd be a buyer of the leveraged China Bull $YINN, right here. Start scaling in....

Market already opened, so I gotta run

Take Care, AA

 

Market Update 3/9/22 - Why I'm leaving Twitter

 Ok, first off, I'm planning to leave Twitter, and ditch the fascist tech tyranny for the new "Truth Social" (platform), as soon as the roll-out to android is confirmed.   

Follow the Truth in social media truthsocial. "Truth Social is a social media platform that encourages an open, free, and honest global conversation without discriminating against political ideology." 

You're welcome to join me there. Otherwise, I'll probably continue to blog, and update the public charts area, until I retire on a lake somewhere, in the north woods.

I've been looking for an alternative to twitter for a while now, and looking forward to getting away from the constant Orwellian Moral Panic, perpetuated by the fake news cycle.   

Speaking of the corrupt fake news outlets:  

Yesterday, although Bloomberg labeled yesterdays session as "Volatile For Stocks", the $VIX was actually lower. This just adds to the case I've been making for the past few years, that the people behind the scenes must have skin in the game, and this especially holds true for CNBC traders, including Jim Cramer, and co.    

$SVXY (Leveraged $VIX Bear) $VIX - I used to advise against shorting the $VIX - because it can be so volatile - but as long as you understand the risk that's involved, why not...?     

  $SPX - I'm liking the 4700 target for starters. Could take a couple weeks ,for the market to find it's legs, and I would expect the market to hold up into the end of the quarter.   

NASDAQ - looks like it could trade into a massive bearish right shoulder. 

 

I'm still looking for a crash in commodities, including Gold, although Gold looks like it could hold up better than Silver. 

$Gold/Silver  

Conversely - Gold looks like it's already totally overshot, along with most other commodities. 

Hopefully the new platform has an "embed" (truth) feature:   

#GOLD target 2017 pic.twitter.com/rDL1xlIci3

— Veteran Market Timer (@3Xtraders) March 8, 2022

China - as I called out yesterday. Sure, China, and Hong Kong were down overnight, but we're only interested in US traded Chinese stocks - in the $FXI.  

Watch for the $DAX to lead as usual. Without revealing the chart I'm using to find support on the $DAX, I can tell this; the level you want to watch is the 12997 (13K) level. 

Should be much easier trading than it's been over the past few weeks, once the new cycle changes, so watch for that. 

They say the pen is mightier than the sword, and if you listen to the fake news you would think the world was going to end this week, but the market has hardly even moved.  

$NYSE - The broader market - continues to trade into a broadening top pattern,  and we could see the same kind of euphoria, we just whiteness in the oil space, if it retests the highs again.   

Not seeing anything that resembles a real bear market, on that chart, so it's really best not to trust the moral panic monkeys, in lame stream media.  

Russia/ Ukraine isn't as bearish as they say, and if anything it's #NeoCons in congress, threatening to escalate the conflict, that should really worry global markets.    

Take Care, AA  

Market Update 3/8/22 - Trading A Perpetually Manipulated Market

 Looks like we traded into a bottom yesterday, but in this crazy - rigged - market, you can always expect a final washout, before you see the trend reverse. We'll see, I guess... 

Yesterday, Nickel of all things was driven up, and you can bet that was engineered by some hedge fund, or one of the crooked banks. 

LME suspends nickel trading after prices soar past $100,000 reuters 

Another prime example of prime time, engineered, market manipulation can be seen on yesterday's Oil and Gas driller chart. 

$OIH - oil and gas drillers - up 10% in an engineered short squeeze. I can confirm this is the case, on more than one chart view,but this 30 min chart shows exactly how it's done. Just raise the bid above the bears stop - on a Monday morning - and the short sellers will cover. Super easy...    

I think that the manipulation we're seeing in energy markets, can last at least into Options expiration.

 The only saving grace, as it turns out, is that the leveraged bear $DRIP apparently doesn't trade counter to the  $OIH ETF, or that might have been down 20%, or more, in a morning. The lesson here, is to know what you're trading when you trade leveraged funds. Usually you can find that information on yahoo finance, but some times it pays to go to the source (the creator of the fund), in this case Direxion.   

GUSH DRIP

The Direxion Daily S&P Oil & Gas Exp. & Prod. Bull (GUSH) and Bear (DRIP) 2X Shares seek daily investment results, before fees and expenses, of 200%, or 200% of the inverse (or opposite), of the performance of the S&P Oil & Gas Exploration & Production Select Industry Index

What is the S&P 500 Oil & Gas Exploration Index? $SPSIOP

The Index comprises stocks in the S&P Total Market Index that are classified in the GICS oil & gas exploration & production sub-industry, so it includes large, mid and small cap stocks. The Index is equal weighted and re-balanced and reconstituted quarterly. Source stockmarketmba 

And if you did a little further you find that the ETF $XOP tracks the above pretty well, supposedly  

And low and behold; that would just happen to be the fund I pointed to in yesterday's update!  

Think that's a coincidence? 

$OIH Here's the updated chart 

Getting back to Nickel 

Nickel is something - just like coal - I'm unable to chart, but if you pull up more any nickel chart, it soon becomes clear that the entire space was manipulated higher. Of course Bloomberg, and the rest of the bought and paid for fake - financial - cable news - will report that this trade is all about, "supply and demand", and Geopolitical risk, and I find that laughable.     

$CNC.V (random Canadian Nickel Miner) up 17% yesterday 

The "Dash for Trash" has begun! No, not for Canadian Mining Stocks, but for - of all things - "Bed Bath & Beyond" - up a whopping 34%! Why? Because people were short the stock, and of course that's prime time for manipulation! Would I be a buyer of $BBBY? No, not unless I was working closely with the manipulators, and that's highly illegal, unless you're a bank or something lol 

2. I won't be buying Canadian Stocks, or Energy either, although I'm not selling as aggressively as I would like, just because I don't like being trapped in a bad trade for extended lengths of time, because if you hold a leveraged fund lone enough, it will bleed value, just due to the NAV (investopedia link). 

Let's wrap this up  

I hope my updates help give you insight into, to how markets trade, and I don't see why trading in the spring of 2022, should any different than any other.  

$SPX bottom called, at yesterday's close  

The $SPX takes out last weeks target, almost #SPY pic.twitter.com/ytLVmxRiPp

— Veteran Market Timer (@3Xtraders) March 7, 2022

One more thing!  China was seen making fresh lows yesterday, and a bear market is being reported. That all sounds bullish to me! "Bear Market", as the lame stream media reports it, is a made up term, invented by Paul Volker in the 1970's, if memory serves.... it' meaningless, as so much of what's reported in 2022 is. A topic for another day. 

$FXI (China) Super-bullish again 

Take Care, AA 

Market Update 3/7/22 - Another Fund-Redemption Monday

 I don't have much time this morning, but it looks like we're going to see another little whoosh at the open, on a bearish IMF (International Monetary Fund) news release, over the weekend. 

That's a buy the Fake News news event, and the timing of this news release is specious. 

IMF warns of economic fallout to Ukraine invasion CNN 

I'm liking the Bloomberg 2X Oil bear, at the bottom of the range, despite any further weakness this morning. 

$SCO - looks like we could see another little washout at the open. 

$XOP Energy looks like it's in wave 5, and wave 5's can take a very long time to complete, so we may only see a little pullback.... 

 I'm liking the broader market, and would even go so far as to start selling the $VIX, by buying the $VXY 

 

That's all I have time for this morning. I'll get into why the globalist psychopaths who think they run the world, are upset about Ukraine, in a future blog. 

 Good luck, AA 

Market Update 2/4/2022 - market pulls back as predicted

 First off: Celebrating 400,000 hits on this website, since we began, in 2008, was it?  It was shortly after I gained popularity on stockcharts.com, where I was predicting a flash-crash, and shortly after that BOOM! That call, caused me to need more room to write, and the rest is history. You see, this is something that I just kind-of fell into, due to unforeseen circumstances, and fate.  

Today's trade: 

Predicting daily market moves is a bit of a fools errand, especially in a choppy mostly sideways market,  but I've been killing it lately! 

 I did call for another pullback, after the weakness we saw on Wed. 

Tweeted

Was that the weakest rally in #Stocks ever? pic.twitter.com/HxMSbW0dUF

— Veteran Market Timer (@3Xtraders) March 2, 2022

I kind of retracted that in yesterday's update, when I admitted that it may not have been the weakest rally, we've ever seen - and it was good to see the bulls push back a little - but I couldn't quite get bullish either. 

Yesterday's trade was pretty boring, and I ended up playing video games most the day. 

Tweeted out 22hrs ago 

$SPX rolls over #SPY pic.twitter.com/lClAsehJp0

— Veteran Market Timer (@3Xtraders) March 3, 2022

 Russia Ukraine UK

Europe continues to melt down - no pun intended.  

European #banking system getting crushed. I swear this was all orchestrated #Psyop #RussiaUkraine #russianinvasion pic.twitter.com/nOYqeI4mhz

— Veteran Market Timer (@3Xtraders) March 1, 2022

Orchestrated or not; be glad you don't live in the UK. It's bad enough watching the 24/7 fearporn, slideshows, on the propaganda news. 

I still try to remain hopeful, and I suspect the shorts are about to get squeezed again, but you should never argue with the trend.  

 The trend remains lower, and it's times like this you gotta take your bull cap off, and go with the flow 

European #banking system getting crushed. I swear this was all orchestrated #Psyop #RussiaUkraine #russianinvasion pic.twitter.com/nOYqeI4mhz

— Veteran Market Timer (@3Xtraders) March 1, 2022

The $VIX remains in check, but god knows where it's going to open this morning. Could be jacked up like the Oil price is, every day. 

Jut like we saw in the Bloomberg Commodities Index rigged above the top of the channel, yesterday. 

$SPX rolls over #SPY pic.twitter.com/lClAsehJp0

— Veteran Market Timer (@3Xtraders) March 3, 2022

After all, this is how they shake out technical traders: First they pull the rug, by breaking the technical charts. 2. Then they back up the truck, and steal your Christmas money. These are evil bastards you're dealing with, so this game is not for the faint of heart.

After all, Bloomberg Fake News is showing gains in Wheat for the year, not over the past few days, for a reason, and it's not in order for you to become better wheat traders! LOL    

You may recall, not so long ago, when Oil contracts went to zero (0), that was your golden opportunity! That was obvious to some of us, but sadly most traders missed the boat, because this is what most traders constantly do. Of course of there was a 3X Leveraged Wheat Bull (ETF_, I might be down 18% at today's open, and if I were short Wheat contracts, I might be even worse off... but I'd be looking to add to my positions, not panic out of them!      

I could give predictions on where we might see some bullish reversals, and alternate chart patterns, but I really have no idea what folk are trading. This site no longer generates revenue, so you're pretty much on your own, on most trades, but as long as the $SPX doesn't take out the Feb lows, then this is only a pullback, ahead of window dressing season. 

$SPX - I just pulled up this chart at random. Watch the 4200 level.  

$SPX Short term support looks like 4222, looking at the st chart located in the public charts area. 

 

As far as Wheat goes: Strong sell 

Oil looks much the same, but oil isn't as thinly traded as grains, and such, no not quite as insane. 

Good luck next week, AA