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Thursday, September 30, 2021

Market Update 9/30/21 - End of the 3rd Quarter

 Looks like all the so called "experts", are going to be proven wrong, as we avoid a Sept. correction. We won't be off to the races until the $VIX is hammered back below the magic 20 number. 

Turns out a big part of the choppiness we've seen over the past few weeks/months, is due to "$USD strength" - which Bloomberg finally eluded to this morning - so let's take another look at the $USD chart. What does this have to do with today's trade? Perhaps nothing, but the future of the country, depends on the almighty dollar. 

As you may know, one of the big predictions I made in my last interview with Dale, is that along with the recovery in equities, we're also going to see "hyper-inflation", and that may be what put's an end to this so called "recovery". The same recovery they've been promising for the past 14 years, which requires regular injections of funny-money, and bond market bailouts. 

 I could use the chart below to make the case for hyper-inflation, but today I just want you to take a look at the recent move in the $USD, and ask yourself, does this look like something that's even worth mentioning? 

I have many views of the $USD, but they all pretty much point to continued, and accelerated, destruction of the currency - which started a long time ago. This explains why the price of a candy bar has risen like 1000% in my lifetime, while wages - for the average worker - have only increased like 300%? And what about the stock market gains we've seen accelerate over the past year; does a share of stock have the same real value as it did, before the idiots in DC spent 6 trillion dollars (most of it on nonsense), on "covid relief"?  

"And I sincerely believe with you, that banking establishments are more dangerous than standing armies; & that the principle of spending money to be paid by posterity, under the name of funding, is but swindling futurity on a large scale" -  Thomas Jefferson
I didn't plan to ramble on for so long, and then I had trouble uploading a chart. Now it's 12 min. before the opening bell, just enough time to throw up a couple NatGas charts. 

 Natural Gas - Monthly view - Parallel channel in blue. Could see 1 more overshoot to the 6.65 target. Whipsawing in an expanding triangle (seen in purple). 

$UNG - has already tested the high end of the bearish channel 



Wednesday, September 29, 2021

Market Update 9/29/21 - Choppy trading continues

Yesterday's sell-off was not at all unexpected, if you look back at the past few updates.  

During yesterday's trading session, I suspect most folks were watching Janet Yellen make a mockery of the US Treasury, in order to try to pressure moderate Democrats into voting for a ridiculous $3.5t spending bill. And if that wasn't surreal enough, (Fed member bank) JP Morgan released some breaking fake news of their own, to spike the ball!  Jamie Dimon says JPMorgan has begun to prepare for potential US default (CNN and several others news agencies)

So right there, you have proof of The Fed, The US Treasury, and the cable News networks all colluding, to pushing a leftist/ socialist narrative, all the while the market is being trashed (by you know who). This is the worst kind of deception, but it's nothing new; it's just so blatantly obvious to anyone who's watching with eyes that can see...  talking about discernment here. But it seems most people just believe whatever they see on the evening news, and don't seem too concerned how their taxes are being spent.  

Yesterday's Trade:  

I was expecting more of a pop in Energy, Oil, and Natural Gas, but I didn't find the selling opportunity I was hoping for. Maybe I missed the boat, but I doubt it. This morning we see Energy down only slightly. 

As far as the broader market is concerned:

We didn't see much fear, regardless of the negative stats being pushed by the financial fake news; "Worst Sell-off Since May"? (several news sources). Regardless of weather that's true or not, the $VIX remained rather muted - as it was seen trading way lower than it was during last weeks surprise bear raid. This points to a pullback, not a sell-off, and you can see that mirrored in the updated $SPX charts - located in the Public Charts area, at  Sorry, I hadn't had a chance to update those charts for a while, but I don't even trade the S&P. I basically just use it as a guide, to confirm, what I'm seeing in the $VIX, which is far more important, when it comes to market timing. I didn't even look at the S&P until the afternoon, and that's about the time it started to rally, off the lows. 

We did see a nice washout (to a new recent low) in the QQQ's, and that was on strong volume, so looking forward to an all but guaranteed snap-back rally, back to the top of the range! 

Alerted to this in my twitter, just a little while ago

European Rally 

Today I see it being reported that, "the Stoxx 600 is bouncing off a 2 month low". That's not the easiest thing to chart. Stockcharts no longer covers it, but I can tell you that we did not see any sort of washout in Europe yesterday.     

Does that look like a new low to you? This is why I tell people not to trust anything they see being reported by the corporate owned, "Industrial Media Complex".

$SPEU (STOXX 50) - I am able to chart this, and if you're looking for an easy trade, this is it. I'll even add this chart to the public charts area.  

Here's another trade you've probably never heard of:  

$UTSL (3X International Utilities Bull) - Simple chart 2 parallel channel lines (blue). Target $36. 


I also noticed gold miners trade into what looks like a tradable bottom. 

$GDM: alerted to yesterday - I haven't had a chance to check futures, but you may need to chase this one. 

I'm not sure if the bond rally has finished, but Bloomberg continues to draw investors in, with promises of higher inflation. It's just a powerful wave C to me, and I'm looking forward to the big reversal.   

Once you see the bond market collapse, equities will be off to the races again, so it's something to watch. There is a 3X bond bear ETF $TMV which can be found in the public charts area, and the 3X bull $TMF can be swing traded into on the reversal. 


...kind of how we use the $SOXS chart to time, the SOXL trade? 

$SOXL - a strong buy, based on the washout  on the QQQ, and the $SOXS chart below 

Hope that's all clear. Let me know if you have any questions. 

Good luck, AA 


Tuesday, September 28, 2021

Market Update - 9/28/2021 - Ron Paul Agrees: Federal Reserve Used Covid As Excuse To Print More Money

Ron Paul Exposes The Federal Reserve's Biggest Scandal

Corona virus was just a convenient excuse to do more of what it was already doing 

Or as I blogged back in August: "...covid was used as an excuse to grease the market's wheels again (money printing/ bailout world/ since 2009)."  

Getting back to the market - it looked pretty weak yesterday, and although that was no surprise, it's irritating to watch, let alone trade.  

We did see the Russell 2000 up almost 2%, so it's not a risk off situation. More like whack-a-mole!  

Picking up from where I left off yesterday: 
What's even more amazing than seeing the 50 day moving averages, being sold, is to see how boldly the market is manipulated from one day to the next, and week, to week, and why should today be any different? Every index was sold at the 50 day moving average, and Bloomberg (fake news) even brought out the bear from Morgan Stanley to talk more about the correction. Not finding that footage, but we do have another story from bumbleberg dated Sept 24th.  

"Market Correction Inevitable" bloomberg Sept 24th (link)

Classic Manipulation Techniques
1. Influence investor opinion (in this case negatively). This is really the easy part, since all media is controlled by the corporate elites, including the Federal Reserve. 

2. Take down any market below a key moving average, as we saw again yesterday, and in $SOX on Friday!  Even the $QQQ's are being taken down at the 50 day, and the dumb machines will sell. 
 3. See how the $VIX has been pressed above the magic 20 number, in pre-market, this morning? This makes it super easy for the controllers to take the market down, to whatever target the have in mind, and they will.... 

4. Every market is controlled, even Natural Gas is being blatantly manipulated, as yesterday's opening bid was raised above the top of the upper channel, seen below. 

5. Always manipulate Options markets dates (note: The market hardly moved again on Friday?), and low volume holiday trading. China is on Holiday again (Golden Week?), so expect more manipulation in that sector. 

$UNG (Natural Gas fund) - See where the market was propped back up yesterday, above the top of the channel? This no doubt caused some panic buying, and that's what experienced traders are trained to do, when resistance is taken out. I just wonder how long before they pull the rug out again. 
See where the bid was raised on another surprise Monday morning! 

Looking it another way, as I always do, it's only retesting the top of the channel (in Black), and looks like another throw-over, so I already added to my short position. I did the opposite when the fake news was telling us that the Russians and the Saudis were in an "oil war", and the price of Oil (contracts) went to 0. Remember that? Bloomberg must have had a dozen oil bears on the week it bottomed, and I just laughed all the way to the bank.  

Here I am - beating the Oil drum, on March 30th, 2020, for example: 

Speaking of Oil: Looks like Brent Crude is finally taking out the target, I pointed to yesterday, while at the same time we're seeing the leveraged Oil bear wash out to a fresh new low.  And not only that, but the fake news is seen reporting that there's an "energy crisis", and at this point even the Energy bears believe...! This is what we call a "capitulation point", in the business, and I can't wait to diversify my energy short bets. This could be huge! 

Leveraged Oil shorts shaken out, at the same time as NatGas retests a "7 year high". Coordinated? 

What about the green energy story? 

If the "Energy crisis" is real, that's going to be great for the greens, right? 

Sorry Millennials! Green Energy is a Pipe Dream 

Green Energy - another financial hoax. Sell It. 

$SMOG -  Do your own due diligence before you trade.  Here's a link 

If you're trading energy, here's a name to watch: 

$EQT - Driven above the channel line, causing a short squeeze, and up again this morning. It is a breakout, or a false breakout? 

 Looks a lot like this (false?) breakout in the broader energy market, right? 

You have to assume Energy is being driven up ahead of Options Expiration (Oct 15th), in a sneaky sector rotation. I thought perhaps Gold was going to be the new panic trade, but it looks like money is pouring into Energy instead.... that's really unusual, after seeing Energy lead every pullback, over the past several years. 

Looks like I have a lot of charting to do in the energy market this morning. 

Take Care, AA  

Monday, September 27, 2021

Market Update - 9/27/21 - Weekly Wrap-up

Looks like the short sellers got squeezed into another weekly OPEX Friday, and with only 3 more trading days left in Sept., I think you can forget about seeing an ongoing correction. You just never see the $VIX make new highs going into the end of the month.

The NASDAQ traded into last weeks target perfectly! 

$COMPQ - short term chart - trend remains down. I don't own tech, but I'm not short tech either. 


$QQQ trading into a right shoulder as predicted. 

Saw $SOX manipulated, as the opening bid was raised above the 50 day moving average. 

$INDU - Looks like this rally has legs. Seeing some resistance at my black line, and again at the 50 day moving average. From there we could be off to the races again.   

High Beta already broke out to a new recent high on Friday. 

Oil also broke out to a fresh new high, but there's lot's of resistance coming up around the $80 area on BRENT crude. 

I'm surprised to see Natural Gas trading back above 5.20, after last weeks violent reversal. In theory 1 reversal (in wave A) is always followed by another larger one (in wave C), so I'm short again, and seeing support around $3 (3.09)    

China looks oversold, and I'm looking for money to be put to work there, going into the end of the year. 

$FXI - Watch for the FXI to trade into a right shoulder, and possibly even retest the 200 day ma, by the end of the year. 

As I'm typing I see the $VIX popping, and US futures turn red. Also seeing higher yields... 

Not sure what that's about, but I like seeing NASDAQ futures off by almost 1%, but the DIS still trading in the green. I also like Treasuries again, after last weeks rout. 

The one thing I'm a little unsure of is Gold miners, but I have a small long position on nonetheless. I can totally afford to take a small loss, after the gains I've seen in Sept. It's been a great month, and hopefully this winning streak continues into the Fall. You can find the gold miner charts, as well as the 20 year treasury charts, in the public charts area. The link to those charts, can be found in the left hand side menu, on this page. 

Good luck, AA 

Thursday, September 23, 2021

Market Update 9/23/21 - Waiting on the BOE decision

I often find myself racing the clock, to finish these blogs, ahead of each mornings opening bell, and yesterday was no different. I was going to recommend a stock screener, and had half a page written, but had to save that for another day. I've also been having some health issues, and doing some research on possible causes. I don't just run to the doctor, for fad vaccines, or anything else, and this isn't covid related. I had a mild case of the covid, and got over it very quickly.  

Picking up where we left off yesterday:

Waiting to see what comes from the BOE decision, and if the Fed is already talking about tapering in Nov, then Inflation may be a real issue overseas.  

Getting back to analyzing Monday's sell-off

Monday's sell-off began with the rug being pulled out on the German $DAX, when the opening bid was lowered, below the 50 day moving average, so let's take a look there first.  

Wait! Remember I was warning on Australia, Just last week?

$AORD Australia (weekly view) -See where the chart broke down - at my red line - and the price action is now sitting on my upper pattern line. The market overshot the top of the pattern, which is typical in wave 5. We've already seen a bounce off that level at the low of the week - 7474.10, and this can continue to hold above that level, until the PTB decide to pull the rug out again. In fact I can almost guarantee it.  

Why are we watching Australia? Because every major collapse is a global event, and because China has been backed into a corner, and Australia is ground zero.  

$GRDOW (Greece). 20 year bear market, and counting? Of course the lame stream media knows better than to even talk about it. When was the last time you heard the acronym PIIGS? That's called lying by omission, or a cover-up; take your pick.  

Getting back to Germany 

$DAX - rallies back above resistance - seen at my red line. That becomes support, and you should know that, without me telling you....  It's currently trading at 15,600.
I think we can expect to see a back-test of the 50 day moving average, as well as well as the formation of a right shoulder. Of course this is going to take some time, possibly as long as early-mid Oct, and Oct Options Expiration comes early, on the 15th. Perfect!  

Pretty amazing isn't it, how you can time the market using the calendar? I saw an advertisement for a trading program - on youtube -  that guarantees profits, based on buying certain dates, and I don't doubt that it works. If I ever get around to writing a trading book, I'll definitely be including a chapter on it. 

 This mornings futures 

Futures are out of kilter with normal trading, and I haven't pulled up a futures chart. 

Futures are up 20, but seem to be lagging at 4400 (of course another even number target). 

$SPX - already tested the 4400 level in trading on Wed, with resistance @ the 4420 level, and more resistance @ 4435.46 ( a gap fill target), and the 50 day moving average trading at 4436!  

Of course the market can continue to melt up, but I'm anticipating a pullback, at some point, at least. 

$SPX - DCS chart - Updated 

 I can't micromanage the intraday trade in this format, so follow me on twitter, when we see the market melt down again. 

Take Care, AA 


Wednesday, September 22, 2021

Market Update 9/22/21 - This is how it's done!

That looks like just another click-bait blog title, but I did catch a nice short squeeze, in one of my beaten up stock picks $ENSC - This one I bottom picked a few weeks ago - of course I don't divulge easily manipulated trades, for obvious reasons, but even I can get excited on Twitter once in a while!

$ENSC - Breaks out, squeezes the short sellers, and is automatically sold at the 50 day moving average ( algorithmic trading programs).  Still these are tough trades to find, and these require constant vigilance, or alerts, or automatic sell targets, which add another layer of complexity, and forethought. Anyhow, any time I see the opportunity to take 60% profits in one day, I'm going to take it, and I did!

Also tweeted this short $VIX trade:   

Also revealed this red hot FinTech trade

$FISV - every MM on Wall Street has to own this winner, or risk being promoted to the Wall of shame.  

As long as I'm on a roll 

I also took profits on my Natural Gas short, and not in any rush to swing trade it, because typically what you see happen after a couple big moves, is consolidation, and it could be weeks, before we see another big move in NatGas, so it's time to put that one on the shelf, and look for the next big move. 

Picking up from where I left off yesterday 

Yesterday, I ran out of time, ranting about the financial lame stream media, and how they feel like they have to invent an excuse, for every market move - no matter how insignificant - when often what you're seeing is a coordinated effort to manipulate markets - which is technically illegal - even if these types of crimes are no longer prosecuted.

 When was the last time you ever heard of a crooked banker going to jail? Like never. Not even in 2009 - after is was revealed that the politicians in Washington had deregulated their friends in the industrial  banking complex. Meanwhile, Bernie Madoff is made the scapegoat, and sentenced to 150 years in prison. Too bad he had no political ties, or he might have received a lesser sentence!  

‘It’s disturbing.’ U.S. Justice Department white-collar criminal prosecutions fall to their lowest level on record, study says (marketwatch) 

Of course CNBC makes it's living manipulating markets, and so do the big banks, who upgrade this, and downgrade that, and as long as they provide legal disclosure everything is kosher. 

Monday's sell-off had about as much to do with Evergrande, as the financial crisis of 2007-2008 had to do with the collapse of Enron, but these stories get good ratings!  By the way, did you know that Kennith Lay, who was indicted by a Grand Jury - in the Enron case - and facing a 45 year sentence, conveniently "died", before he was sentenced. He was a close friend of George Bush, so his death may have well been faked.... Hey, what about Jeffery Epstein, or that kid who was suspected of downloading incriminating evidence off the DNC server? I think, "Seth Rich, was his name" Was he really murdered? Believe me when I say, most of what we see reported every day, is an illusion, but I digress!

Getting back to the financial lame stream media

Who did Bloomberg interview yesterday, but none other than Dr. f'ing Doom! 

Looks like Bloomberg is trying to create mass hysteria again!

 A technical correction

Monday's surprise correction was technical, as proven in the charts. When 50 day moving averaged are taken out, selling programs are triggered, and this started in Germany, just as the so called "covid crash" did. I was lucky enough at the time to see what was about to happen over-seas, before terror struck US markets, and I was out shopping for masks,  well ahead of the crash. Of course most the shelves were already bear, because I'm not the only person in my area who has an ounce of common sense. Luckily, as it turned out, Covid wasn't nearly as serious, as the pictures coming out of China. 

In fact the ships sent to New York harbor, were not even used. Hospitals were never overwhelmed, yet the fear porn continues, almost 2 years later, being pushed, by those in government, and the lame stream media. Makes me wonder what other manufactured catastrophes they have in store for us?    

Getting to the charts 

I have certain chart views I could show, that make it look like the $VIX has broken out, and that the upturned triangles we've been watching have failed, and this is all good, because we're finally going to be able to weed out some of the good charts from the bad.... 

Going back to the $QQQ chart from last week, this was my wave "A" target. Next watch for it to climb back above my green line (and the 50 day ma), and trade into a right shoulder - at my black line. Expect a lot of chest pumping from the bears, when they finally spot that pattern.  

$INDU ( the Dow) The trend is not even close to being broken, and we're seeing support at the 150 day moving average (@ 34,0053), and my parallel channel line (in green). That's also a higher recent high, followed by a higher recent low, which is the definition of a bull market, so the bears who are calling for a bear market really are lost.  Resistance looks like the 50 day moving average, which just happens to be trading at 35,000. I'd kind of expect to see a gap up above that level, possibly as soon as Thurday, when the BOE reports. This is a bigger deal than even the Fed, since Europe is obviously nervous - and not about China, of all things. 

This new is also helping Europe, and may have been priced in ahead of the news. 

Germany's Ifo institute slashes 2021 GDP growth forecast to 2.5% (Reuters)

Out of time again, 
GL this week, AA 

Tuesday, September 21, 2021

A one day sell-off, does not a bearish trend reversal make

 A one day sell-off does not a bearish trend reversal make 

 If there's one thing you should take away from yesterday's apparent one day off, that is it! 

Even The top Fed member bank, J.P. Morgan knows this! 

JPMorgan Says Stock Decline Represents Buying Opportunity (

 One day sell-offs are pretty common, and often inexplicable. Of course the financial fake news has to have something to report, so they run with whatever helps shape the official narrative, or helps the Banks, hedgefunds, behind the scenes, or just make something up, like the "Evergrande
 story. Or how 'bout the "Trump, China, Trade War", story; we were subjected to every time the market pulled back while Trump was in office? Biden's policies on China haven't changed, but have you even once, heard, Joe Biden blamed for market jitters? No   

White House trial-balloons new China tariffs (politico 9/13/21) 

What about the 4th wave of Covid, and the highly contagious Delta Variant? Guess the market wasn't worried about that one, yesterday, although they did find the time to try to convince people that covid was worse than the Spanish flu.

COVID-19 Has Now Killed About As Many Americans As The 1918-19 Flu (NPR)

No doubt the banks have been pushing for a correction, ever since they came back from summer vacation, and I can't blame them for wanting to buy stocks lower! 

‘Markets are priced for perfection and vulnerable,’ says the CIO of Morgan Stanley Wealth Management" (marketwatch)

Makes me  wonder if Morgan Stanley, or their affiliates, had anything to do with yesterday's shake-out? Guess we're never know...

 But are we really suppose to believe that after 6 months of selling, of Chinese stocks, it wasn't until yesterday, that the market seemed to notice Evergrande going bankrupt? Sure they try to make it sound like the market has been selling off for weeks, but we hadn't really seen much of a pullback until yesterday. Why yesterday? I suppose it could be that since China is trading on light holiday volume, this was an opportune time to take china down again. It was also an opportune time to load up on cheap Call options, considering Friday was Sept OPEX. But it just sounds better to report that the market is fearful of something, than to admit markets are often manipulated on light trading volume, right around Options Expiration. If you report the truth, then people might wake up, and realize the market is rigged, and that might shake "investor confidence", and we can't have that!   

Getting to the Charts shortly: 

I just killed it yesterday, from taking profits, to buying the dips. I even bought some Chinese stocks, btu not the boring $FXI.

$VIX never touched 30, as I predicted it wouldn't, yesterday. 

Gold is holding up quite well, and back in favor, thanks to the fake news. 

I follow a lot of the nonsense on Twitter, as a contrarian indicator, because let's face it, 90% of traders are wrong, more often, than not, and when you see folks trying to convince  retail traders that the market is in a deflationary death spiral, and broken, you need to run in the other direction. Nothing is broken. 

I have a bunch of charts to blog, including how they started selling in Germany. 

$DAX - You can see where they pulled the rug out, below my red (pattern) line. 

High Beta: 

They also pulled the plug on High Beta, by taking out the 50 day ma, at the open. Oldest trick in the book; raising, or lowering the opening bid. This looks like support for a little while at least.

$SOX - they did the same thing on $SOX. Lowered the bid below the 50 day ma. 

I would not want to be holding 3X bear $SOXS this morning 

I'm outta time, and it's going take some time to see if this rally still has legs, and it could remain choppy going into Thursday, and I'll let you know why, in the next update. 

Good luck, AA 




Monday, September 20, 2021

Market Update 9/20/2021 - Seeing Another Surprise Monday Morning Shakeout

 I'm calling negative futures a, "surprise shakeout", even though it should be no surprise the market can't seem to sell-off until after Monthly Options Expiration. What will really be a surprise, is if the market continues to sell-off, into the next FOMC meeting only day's away. I see close to 0% chance of that happening. 

So here's my forecast for the week, and be sure to check out my targets for the $QQQ, I laid out on Friday. 

$VIX to gap up, and hit resistance somewhere between 25.60 and 26.60. Of course the $VIX could overshoot, but I don't see it getting above 30 (the top of the range). 

The Dow

As I pointed out on Sept 10th, the $DOW lags the rest of the market, so that's where I want to continue to focus our attention. 

$INDU - DCS  chart - This mornings we're seeing the bullish channel break, but I'm also seeing a clear path to Dow 40k, once the price action crawls back into the channel.  Watch for support at 34k, at my pink line. Chart added to the public charts area. 

$INDU - weekly view - see the DOW trading above the top of the channel (34k precisely). 


We're also seeing a continued shakeout in Chinese equities. Nothing new there, except the fake financial news - at Bloomberg - was seen pointing to the 3X China bear $YINN. Why today, and not last week? Why on the Monday, after Sept. OPEX, 3 days before the next fed meeting? 

Look, my China short worked out really well, even if I covered too soon, but at this point I'm bottom picking the $FXI (China again).

$FXI - DCS (Daily Candle Stick) chart: Looks like a normal pullback.  

What's awesome is, even though I covered one of my tech shorts on Friday, I left the other one one, and also short financials. I expect to be taking profits in $TECS, and $FAZ, well ahead of the next The Federal Reserve announcement, and as soon as today's open. Still have to look at some charts  

$NDX (big tech) - 30 min chart - Looking for 151 there. 

Financials are hardly even down - so much for the collapse of, "Evergrande spooking credit markets" - eye-roll 

Natural Gas 

Adding to my Nat Gas shorts last week, turned out to be one of the best decisions I could've made, and need to start looking for a good place to start taking some profits. 

If you were unlucky enough to get locked into 3 day (cash) trade in $UGAZ (3X long NatGas), you lost close to 30% in 3 days. 

This morning we've seen Natural Gas contracts snap back to resistance, but I wouldn't touch it here, with a 10 foot pole. 

NatGas - 15 min live chart

$UNG (NatGas fund) - Could maybe see it build a base, just below the 27.40 level 

The other trade I'm watching closely is Gold miners, metals, silver. 

I've been short Silver for a while, and see no reason to take that position off. You can find the $SLV charts in the public charts area, and the miner charts as well. Maybe Gold gains some traction, when The Fed reports very bearish again?   

$SPY (the $SPX ETF) - looks like we're going to see a little shakeout below the 50 day moving average, but I'd be watching for the $VIX to top out, and the price action on the $SPY to climb back into the bullish channel, and squeeze the shorts possibly all the way into the holidays. The catalyst for the reversal. could be an Evergrande bankruptcy announcement (buy the news event). Remember what happened after Lehman defaulted? 

That's about it for this Monday Morning.

Good luck this week, AA


Friday, September 17, 2021

Market Update 9/16 - Friday Options Expiration - there is a small chance of a big sell-off

Picking up from where I left off yesterday: 

1. Looks like stocks are going to remain pinned on this OPEX Friday, but you just never know,,,. We've seen volatility spike, and stocks sell-off, on OPEX before, although it's pretty rare (1/99). That's a 1% chance... 

2. Bloomberg acts as if they don't know why it is that markets were "quiet", for most the week, including yesterday, as if they don't know it's a Jewish holiday, or something. What is that? 

But as much as I rip Bloomberg news, it's 10X better than Faux FOX news, or CNBS (cnbc).  

3. After yesterdays' blogs I remembered twitting this Australia/China cold war story, back in August: 


4. So you would think France is in trouble, after being thrown under the bus, and it's highly suspicious that the Australia story come out, just as the $CAC is testing the 2000 highs. I suppose this is another thing Bloomberg just happened to miss?   

Wish I had the time to chart China, but instead I want to provide a longer term setup for tech stocks, the only stocks the controllers really care about - judging by the charts I provided yesterday. I mean, if the tech sector is being propped up, then it must be for a very good reason, right?   

My long term outlook on US tech

I can't say I liked yesterday's tech rally to a lower high, and I managed to sound the warning, going into yesterday's close, and I think there's a good chance the tech bulls get taken out behind the woodshed, if not today, then next week. 

Like I said: Not liking the short term: 

 $QQQ - rallies to a lower high, going into Thursday's close, along with semiconductors.

 Now let's assume we don't see another shakeout until next week. The 50 day average becomes the target, where you will no doubt see program buying. 


$QQQ - Possible shakeout next week, followed, by a bigger rally, back to the 380 level. That could set up for a much bigger correction to the 355 target, in early October. That would set up for a bullish October OPEX, and probably even a rally into the end of the year, because you have to assume the shorts are going to be squeeze into the holiday's. Then new money comes in, and holds the market up, a little while longer. 


      $QQQ (weekly chart) - Looks like a 385 target and a retest of the upper channel. 

This slow market has given me some extra time to update the public charts area, so be sure to check that out. There's a goof possibility we see a big rally in golf miners after yesterday's shakeout, but you don't want to be wrong here, as I tweeted yesterday! 

$JNUG is the 3X leveraged jr miners bull. Not for the weak of heart, or the unlearned. 

And here's a miner to watch - back-testing the 41.42 level (LT support). 

$WPM Silver Wheaton 

Take care, and have a great weekend! 



Thursday, September 16, 2021

Market Update Part 2 - the trade

Be sure to check out Part 1 of today's update, "Uh Oh, Looks Like I Was Right About WWIII!"

I really didn't expect much movement today, but since completing part 1 of today's update we've seen the $SPX slide all the way back to support - giving back practically all of yesterday's gains. But as long as we don't start seeing lower lows, this looks like a bullish pullback, at least going into tomorrow - OPEX Friday. and probably into the beginning of next week.  

$SPX 15 min. Chart: - pulls back to my green-line. 

The $VIX remains contained (below 20). See my take on the $VIX in yesterday's blog. 

So no change from yesterday, except that we're seeing a washout in metals, and what looks like a reversal in Natural Gas, and Oil. I tweeted that I wasn't going to add to my NatGas short, unless it hit $6, but after what I was seeing in the charts - in yesterday's blog - and seeing KOLD down another 10% at yesterday's open, I couldn't resist...! So, take into account that my perspective may be a little skewed, at this point, because I'm a little over-leveraged on the short side of that trade. 

Natural Gas: Be sure to check out the charts in yesterday's blog, if you're trading NatGas. 

I watching NatGas at yesterday's open, and spotted yesterday's reversal in real time. Moments later told traders to "smash it". I also warned folks to stay away from Oil, and Uranium. 


Think the powers that be won't use tax payer money to crush the commodities market, just so that they can keep lending governments money? The Fed, is a corrupt group of racketeers.   

 $DBC looks like a broadening top pattern, and the fake news has convinced everyone that commodities are going higher. 

One more thing on the commodities front. 

NatGas - bearish candlestick analysis. I don't rely to heavily on candlestick analysis, unless I'm picking tops or bottoms, and NatGas did take out yesterday's target - to confirm. 

Top 3 candles - including today's live one. Bearish shooting star. 2. Doji or hanging man (reversal candle). 3. Bearish engulfing, 

I hadn't planned to get so deeply into commodities this morning, but it just turned out that way.

What I did intend on pointing out, is that high beta continues to be bought at the 50 day moving average. This is holding markets up, and as long as the high flyers are held up, the controllers know, they have nothing to worry about, especially trading into OPEX, on a holiday.  

High Beta: 

And peaking of high flyers: 

The other thing I noticed, was the QQQ's rallying off support, at my pink line. Confirms that they are using ETF's to drive the market. 

$QQQ - holding above st support 

Today's trade may seem a little insignificant, after reading what I have to say in part one, but maybe WWIII doesn't start immediately, and maybe it can be contained to Australia, or Europe, at least. The Chinese know that as soon as they launch a strike on the US, we will launch a full retaliatory strike on Beijing, and that would be the end of China. 

Good Luck, and have a great weekend, if I don't see you again. 



Market Update 9/16/21 - Uh Oh, Looks Like I Was Right About WWIII!

 Uh Oh, Looks Like I Was Right About WWIII!  

US, UK and Australia forge military alliance to counter China - theguardian

I can't really explain how I come up with these kinds of gloomy predictions, except that I look at the charts, and possibilities start coming to mind, as they did when I most recently mentioned that WWIII was looking like more of a real possibility in a blog dated 9/1, and I believe there was another blog where I pointed to the strategic importance of Australia, and the military industrial complex's obsession with a military conflict with China - in the the south sea - but I can't seem to find anything I've written on the subject.  Perhaps I only tweeted about it, or researched it, but I know I mentioned WWIII in my last interview with Dale Pinkart @stophunter over at Forex Analytics (.com).   

I guess I'm a realist, because I grew up around the time of the Cuban missile crisis, most people of my generation were constantly reminded of the possibility of nuclear war in our lifetimes, and I personally think it's a miracle that we've avoided it for this long. Nuclear war is the number once threat to civilization, but today's generation seems to be more concerned with social justice, and climate collapse, as they remain glued to their electronic devices, living some alternate reality. It's the epitome of complacency, and it's going to be a rude awakening when the proverbial shit hits the fan.            

We also see China decoupling from the global economy, and the economic new world order. The lame stream media only reports that "China is cracking down...", but they fail to go into specifics. They talk about a "tutoring ban", and a 3 hr (weekly) limit on gaming hrs, yet they fail to mention the "why...?". Its because unlike the US, China has ethical standards, and they refuse to allow their youth to be destroyed by western pop culture, as we have so easily allowed, and all for the sake of the holy dollar. In case you didn't notice, there is no regulation - to speak of - in this country, where we not only allow multi-national corporations to poison kids bodies with toxic ingredients, and pesticides, and even pure nicotine, and THC, but we allow them to poison their minds, which is far worse. Ultimately it's the parents responsibility to keep their children safe, but that becomes extremely tough when everybody from the public school system, to mass-media, and social networks, are the enemy.  

In a related story: 

Lawmakers Push Facebook To Abandon Instagram For Kids, Citing Mental Health Concerns (npr)

I'm sure there are a few good people in government, but the vast majority represent no one, except themselves, meaning their special interests, which is code for whoever is going to financial their next campaign.  

As far as the market is concerned, there's a good reason why trading has been so quiet, and that reason is because this is a holiday  - Yom Kippur began Yesterday (Wed.) Sept 15th. 

I have a few charts to look at, but the opening bell rings in 2 minutes. 

I'll try to get part 2 completed shortly, and that shouldn't be too difficult, on light holiday trading day. 

Catch you in Part 2, AA 

Link to Market Update Part 2 - the trade




Wednesday, September 15, 2021

Market Update 9/15/2021 - Did I cover my China short too soon? New NatGas target. And are we still on track for a big rally?

 I've been giving most everything I have away - on twitter - recently, so today's update is going to contain a lot of what I'v been churning out there. I'm also going to reveal something I haven't tweeted, the DOW pro-short !  

First off: The powers that be (the controllers) have a tight grip on this market. Of course the bears - I follow on twitter - can't see it, but I'm sure they will, soon enough.    

As I tweeted to a new twitter follower, yesterday:

What's relevant about that chart is that the $VIX is obviously being controlled, and as long as that continues, the bears don't have a chance....  

You don't even need a $SPX chart to know what happens next. 

If we do see another little washout, then I would be a seller on any breakout  - of the $VIX above the 200 day, and the magic (20) number, and a buyer off the 50 day moving average on the $SPX. Pretty simple, unless the shakeout comes at the end of the day, but in that case, I would be on another short squeeze Friday.   

China - did I cover my short too soon?  

I was short China for over a week, and up quite nicely in $YANG, but when I see the machines buying the 20 day moving averages, I get nervous. Most people would say there's nothing wrong with taking profits, but it's hard enough sticking with a winning trade, without that kind of chatter.  

It's uncanny how many things I noticed being bought at the 20 day moving average yesterday, even the $NDX! 


Natural Gas 

$UNG (Natural Gas fund) - another twitter follower pointed out to me that this has rallied to the 200 week, or month, moving average, which in the past I would've said isn't really significant, because ETF's aren't indexes, but I appreciate the heads up because the market is full of ignorant fools, who run hedge funds, and knowing that I don't doubt this is the target! It took me years to realize, ETF's are bing used to drive underlying indexes, so you really need  to watch everything, and be open to different interpretations! Back in the day, I would've just blocked someone pointing to a moving average on an ETF. 

$UNG - sure enough is taking out the 50 month, and at the top of a parallel channel. Could see a little throw-over past that target, and we are seeing a higher high in pre-market!  The target at my red line looks like 19.95 - $20 maybe? 


Looked like it took out my target yesterday, but commodities overshoot all the time 

Energy and specifically Natural Gas scares me here. See this Natural Gas name testing the top of the range. 

$SO - Southern 

Even a better short than Natural Gas; Lithium

Lithium - massive overshoot at the top of a parallel channel. Of course you need to sell Lithium contracts in order to play it, and that's too risky for most traders.

Now, here's something I didn't give away on Twitter: 

There's a DOW pro (long) ETF, with the ticker symbol $UDOW and I think that might be the best way to catch thye rally on the DOW, that I've been predicting for the past week! I almost went long the Russell at yesterday's close, but I still prefer the DOW, since it's lagging so much, and because big tech drives the dow, and we see Microsoft buybacks, and new Apple products, designed to lift the FAANGs. Of course the corporates are in on it!  After all we are living in a corporatocracy.

In a related story Joe Biden to pressure CEO's to force vaccine mandates. This is some of the most corrupt - in broad daylight - behavior I've seen come out of the White House, since Benghazi Gate. 

Biden to reportedly meet Wednesday with execs on COVID vaccine mandate - nypost

Weber washes out to a new low. This is what you want to see at a reversal, capitulation! 

 But I digress, and now I'm almost out of time. 

$UDOW - no doubt the DOW has been pulling back after this hit resistance. Remember what I was just saying about leveraged ETF's being used to drive indices? This would be a prime example of this. I thought this would be easier to chart, but not so much... 

I would also be watching the 50 day moving average on the DOW, and this black lower pattern line. To be honest this makes me a little nervous, but let the $VIX be your guide. Review a previous blog for $VIX targets. Low $VIX = no fear.